Casimir Pulaski Foundation

Baltic Sea Security Conference 2017 – Challenges for the Region in Maritime, Air and Land Dimensions

30th June 2017 | National School of Public Administration, Wawelska 56, Warsaw

The conference aims at providing a platform for discussion on security and defence cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region. Recently this area once again has become a place of rivalry between the Western countries and the Russian Federation, which forces the member states of the European Union and NATO to deepen regional cooperation in the security dimension. An important task of the conference will be to assess how to maintain peace and stability in the region as well as to evaluate the potential for cooperation between Armed Forces, especially Navies, and defence industries of the Baltic Sea Region countries. Another issue is an experience sharing. Poland and the Baltic States currently implementing a modernization programme of the Armed Forces. The experience of other NATO countries can be very practical for selecting appropriate solutions. Security of the Baltic Sea region requires a multi-dimensional discussions on both political and military matters. To meet this need the Baltic Sea Security Conference 2017 will be comprised of 4 thematic panels, which will be attended by representatives of Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence of the Baltic Sea region states, Armed Forces commanders and representatives of the private sector.

AGENDA 08.00 – 9.00 Registration 09.00 – 09.45 Opening speech

 Zbigniew Pisarski – President of Casimir Pulaski Foundation, Poland (confirmed)

 Paweł Soloch – Head of National Security Bureau, Poland (confirmed)

 Michał Dworczyk – Secretary of State, Minister of Defence, Poland (confirmed)

 Bartosz Ciechocki – Undersecretary of State for Security, Eastern Policy and American Policy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Poland (confirmed) 9.45 – 10.00 Hegemon Baltic Sea Simulation – presentation of wargame results

10.00 – 11.15 Panel I | Rise of Russia’s military activity on Baltic Sea – how NATO and Baltic Sea Region states can respond? At no time since the end of the Cold War has the Baltic Sea Region countries faced greater challenges to their security than it does today. Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, and destabilisation of Eastern Ukraine marked in very different ways the start of a new era. Despite the so-called ‘Minsk II’ agreement, establishing, among others, a ceasefire between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian army, Moscow has continued its provocative policy towards the West, for example, by sending warplanes near the NATO airspace. As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced, in 2014 NATO fighter planes intervened over 400 times in response to the actions of the Russian aviation, which is an increase by 50 per cent compared to the previous year. During the years 2014-2016 Russia carried out a

great number of military manoeuvres throughout the entire country and recently it deployed corvettes armed with nuclear- capable Kalibr cruise missiles to Baltic Sea. The question to be raised in the panel is if defence and deterrence measures established within NATO are enough and how Baltic Sea countries can do to respond the challenges.  Laurynas Kasčiūnas –Member of Committee on National Security and Defence, Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania , Lithuania (confirmed)  Mikko Kinnunen, Director for Security Policy and Crisis Management, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finland (confirmed)  Jacek Najder – Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2008-2011) Ambassador of Poland to NATO (2001-2016), Poland (confirmed)  Philip Karber – President of Potomac Foundation, The United States (confirmed)  Bruno Lété – Senior Fellow, Security and Defense, The German Marshall Fund of the United States (confirmed)

 Tomasz Szatkowski – Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Defence, Poland (invited)

 Adam Hałaciński – Ambassador, Director of The Security Policy Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (confirmed) Moderator: Zbigniew Pisarski – President of Casimir Pulaski Foundation (confirmed) 11.15 – 11.45 Coffee break

11.45-12.00 Presentation of National Security Bureau : ‘Poland’s Strategic Concept for Maritime Security’ – Gen. Jarosław Kraszewski – Director of Armed Forces Supervision Department, National Security Bureau, Poland (confirmed)

12.00 – 13.00 Panel II | Operational use of naval vessels on the Baltic Sea – is the more really the better? Invited panellists will try to define the role and capabilities of the navy in the contemporary geopolitical realities of the Baltic Sea region with focus on the Russian Anti Access and Area-Denial capabilities. As Poland is currently modernising its Navy, the key will be to acquaint with the experiences of other countries operating in a similar geopolitical environment.

 Mark Guzinger – Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, The United States (confirmed)

 RAdm. Mirosław Mordel – Inspector for the Navy of General Command of Branches of Armed Forces, Poland (confirmed)

 Gen. Jarosław Kraszewski – Director of Armed Forces Supervision Department, National Security Bureau, Poland (confirmed)

 Cezary Cierzan – Maritime Platforms Office Director, Polish Armament Group, Poland (confirmed)

 Thomas-Durell Young – Program Manager, Europe, Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, The United States (confirmed)

 Cdr Krzysztof Olejniczak – Head of Naval Technique Unit, the Armament Inspectorate,

Poland (invited)

 RAdm. Jonas Haggren, Head of Policy and Plans Department, the Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters, Sweden (invited)

Moderator: Jerzy Aleksandrowicz, Research Fellow at Casimir Pulaski Foundation (confirmed) 13.00 – 14.00 Lunch

14.00 – 14 .15 The future of submarines in the Polish Navy: Conclusions from TRISEMINAR – Kamil Mazurek – Security and Defence Programme Coordinator at Casimir Pulaski Foundation 14.15 – 15.15 Panel III | Russian military build-up in Western Military District and recreation of the 1st Guards Tank Army – conclusions for Land Forces of Poland and the Baltic States Russia has intensively strengthened its military in the Western and Southern districts. In 2015, from the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle “Tamanskaya” Division and the 4th Guards “Kantemirovskaya” Tank Division, the 1st Guards Tank Army was formed. In 2016, the Russian command decided to create three new divisions (partly based on existing brigades) and assigned one to the SMD and two to the WMD. These activities are not simply a response to the enhancement of NATO Eastern Flank, but are strategic in nature. This panel will be dedicated to the Land Force of Poland and Baltic States to evaluate the measures that these countries should undertake to protect themselves against challenges from an increasing military build-up of the Russian Federation.

 Phillip A. Petersen – Vice President of Potomac Foundation (confirmed)

 Anna Maria Dyner – Polish Institute of International Affairs, Poland (confirmed)

 Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak – Senior Fellow, Pulaski Foundation, Poland (confirmed)

 Andrzej Wilk – Eastern Studies Centre, Poland (confirmed)

 Col. Zdzisław Śliwa – Dean at the Baltic Defence College, Estonia (confirmed)

Moderator: Jacek Bartosiak, Research Fellow at Casimir Pulaski Foundation, Senior Fellow at the Potomac Foundation (confirmed) 15:15-15:30 Coffee break

15:30-16:30 Panel IV Missile and Air Threats over Northern and Eastern Flank – conclusions for NATO BMD and Polish Wisła and Narew programmes Although the Alliance declares the aim of a NATO Missile Defence capability is to provide coverage and protection for all NATO European member states against the threats posed by the proliferation of ballistic missiles, controversies about it current shape are emerging. On the one hand, after the Iran Nuclear Deal, the threat of unexpected missile attack from Middle East seems to diminish, on the other, modernisation of Russian missile force, violation of INF treaty by Moscow as well as increasingly aggressive rhetoric in the NATO-Russia relations cause concerns. It should make us ask question if NATO BMD can respond current threats and what the US and NATO can do more to deal with them? Is it time to deploy THAAD batteries in Europe and Anti-aircraft warfare in Deveselu and Redzikowo? In this panel we would like to discuss main challenges for Wisła and Narew programmes as well as

opportunities for the Polish Armed Forces and defence industry connected with the air and missile defence programmes.

 Michał Jach – Chairman of National Defence Commission, Poland (invited)

 Gen. Kenneth E. Todorov – Deputy Director of the Missile Defense Agency (2014-2016), The United States(confirmed)

 Jen Judson – Defence News, The United States (confirmed)

 Col. Dariusz Pluta – Head of Armament Inspectorate, Poland (invited)

 Col. Karol Dymanowski – Department of Armament Policy, Ministry of Defence, Poland, (invited)

Moderator: Maciej Kowalski, Research Fellow, Casimir Pulaski Foundation (confirmed)

The conference will be held in English, the organisers will provide Polish-English translation.

Supported by NATO PDD

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