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Stock Idea Sector: Building Materials August 07, 2020 Pidilite Industries Limited Stock Idea Sector: Building Materials August 07, 2020 Pidilite Industries Limited Investment ka mazboot jod Powered by Sharekhan’s 3R Research Philosophy Pidilite Industries Limited Investment ka mazboot jod Stock Idea Stock Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Building Materials Sharekhan code: PIDILITIND Initiating Coverage 3R MATRIX + = - Summary Right Sector (RS) ü We initiate coverage on Pidilite Industries Limited (Pidilite) with Buy recommendation and assigning a price target of Rs. 1,645. Right Quality (RQ) ü Pidilite leads domestic market for adhesives, sealants and construction chemicals. Strong brands (including Fevicol, Dr.Fixit and Fevikwik) give it a competitive edge over peers. Right Valuation (RV) ü FY2021 will be affected by impact of Covid-19 spread resulting into a wash- + Positive = Neutral - Negative out Q1FY21. With recovery started flowing in (especially in tier-III and IV towns), FY2022 is expected to witness strong bounceback. Fall in VAM prices would help margins continue rise. Reco/View Launch of premium products in core categories, foray into new categories (largely consumer-centric), wider distribution reach and expansion into international Reco: Buy markets remain key growth drivers in the medium to long term. CMP: Rs. 1,377 Pidilite is the market leader in adhesives and sealants, construction chemicals, hobby colours and polymer emulsions industry in India. Its flagship brands - Fevicol Price Target: Rs. 1,645 and M-Seal have a market share of ~70% each in the domestic market. With a slew of new launches under existing brands and entry into consumer-centric categories, supported by adequate media activities, Pidilite has transitioned its target market Company details from industrial users to consumers through effective communication, which has helped the company to register itself in customers’ minds. This helped Pidilite post Market cap: Rs. 69,964 cr consistent performance, with revenues and PAT growing by ~12% and 18% over FY2015-20. Though FY2021 is expected to be lull, affected by COVID-19, growth is 52-week high/low: Rs. 1,710/1,186 expected to come back on track in FY2022, driven by a recovery in refurbishment of houses and construction activities (especially in rural markets and tier-III towns). NSE volume: Further, expected increase in demand for adhesive products in global markets such 6.5 lakh (No of shares) as South East Asia, Europe, North America and Latin America would add to overall revenues in FY2022 and FY2023. A fall in prices of key inputs such as Vinyl Acetate BSE code: 500331 Monomer (VAM), in line with the fall in crude oil prices, which is a blessing in disguise amid the pandemic, as it will support margins. With a stable working capital cycle NSE code: PIDILITIND which improved to 34 days in FY2020, Pidilite’s free cash flows (FCF) stood at Rs. 827 crore in FY2020. This will take care of major costs during an uncertain business Free float: environment in FY2021. 15.1 cr (No of shares) Our Call View - Initiate with Buy recommendation and price target of Rs. 1,645: With a strong portfolio of brands, Pidilite has a monopoly in the domestic adhesives market. Shareholding (%) Opportunities generated through initiatives such as ‘Make in India’, lower imports of Chinese products, revival in the rural economy and opening up of other international Promoters 70.2 markets would act as key revenue drivers in the medium term. The stock is currently FII 11.2 trading at 50.8x its FY2022E earnings (discount of ~10% its last three years average multiple). A monopoly in the adhesives market, strong brand recognition and a sturdy DII 8.1 balance sheet justify a premium valuation. However in an uncertain environment it is prudent to invest in quality stocks with a strong balance sheet and healthy return Others 10.5 profile of over 20%. We initiate our coverage on Pidilite with a Buy recommendation and price target (PT) of Rs. 1,645 (valuing the stock at 60x its FY2022E earnings). Price chart Key risk If the COVID-19 global pandemic takes time to get under control, the recovery in the 1750 business environment will take more time, which will continue to affect the financial performance of Pidilite in the near term. 1550 1350 Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E 1150 Revenue 7,078 7,294 6,677 8,204 9,054 19 20 19 20 - - - - OPM (%) 19.3 21.6 22.6 23.4 23.7 Apr Dec Aug Aug Adjusted PAT 946 1,177 1,032 1,376 1,572 % YoY growth -2.0 24.4 -12.4 33.4 14.3 Price performance Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 18.6 23.2 20.3 27.1 31.0 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m P/E (x) 73.9 59.4 67.8 50.8 44.5 P/B (x) 16.9 15.7 13.5 11.2 9.4 Absolute -1.6 1.8 -11.7 6.8 EV/EBIDTA (x) 45.4 39.9 41.9 32.1 27.9 Relative to RoNW (%) 24.5 27.4 21.4 24.1 23.0 -5.3 -19.1 -4.1 3.1 Sensex RoCE (%) 22.6 22.7 18.3 20.5 19.6 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates Note: We now convert Pidilite into a Stock Idea; it was earlier a ‘Viewpoint’ under our coverage August 07, 2020 2 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Idea Stock Executive Summary 3R Research Positioning Summary Valuation and return potential n Right Sector: Strong demand for construction chemicals, Low penetration of construction chemicals sustained innovation in portfolio and share and adhesives in India provides huge gain will aid Pidilite to achieve double scope of growth. earning growth over FY2020-23. n Right Quality: The stock has corrected ~10% in last Strong product portfolio and leadership one half month factors in the washout positioning will help to stay ahead of performance in Q1. competition. The stock is currently trading at valuation n Right Valuation: of 51x its FY2022E EPS. Monopoly in the construction chemicals market and sturdy balance sheet will keep valuation at a premium. Catalysts Earnings and Balance sheet highlights Long-term triggers Consistent earnings growth: Pidilite’s Government regulations to improve quality revenues and PAT clocked a CAGR of ~9% of construction. and 18% over FY2015-20. ‘Make in India’ initiatives and opening up of international markets will provide long Key segment: Consumer Bazaar division term growth opportunities. contributes ~85% of revenues and has EBIT margins of around 22%. Sustained new product launches to remain competitive in the market. Sturdy balance Sheet: Zero Debt Company with stable work capital and Medium Term Triggers strong cash flows (FCF stood at Rs. Recovery in rural and tier-3 markets. 827crore in FY20). Correction in VAM prices will mitigate the risk of lower sales in the near term. Strong return profile: RoE and RoCE standing above 20% each. Key Risks: If opening of economy takes time it will be key risk to earnings estimates due to lower demand. Source: Company, Sharekhan Research August 07, 2020 3 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Idea Stock Table of Contents Pages Right Sector - Why we like construction chemicals industry Overview of construction chemical market in India 5 Key drivers for construction chemical and adhesives industry in India 7 Indian furniture market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10-12% over FY2019-24 11 Usage of adhesives in other industries 12 Right Quality - Why we like Pidilite Strong competitive moat and near-monopoly in adhesives and sealants 14 Pidilite has a strong product portfolio 15 Pre-COVID-19 growth at 8% CAGR; FY2021 will be a one off year; significant recovery 18 expected in FY2022/23 Correction in input prices to drive margins in the near term 19 Strong manufacturing capacity and robust distribution reach 20 Inorganic initiatives and expansion of international business to support growth going ahead 20 Investments made by Pidilite to enhance innovation and understand consumer trends 22 Strong cash flows, consistent dividend payout 22 Production scaled-up; gradual recovery witnessed post easing of lockdown 23 Financials in charts 24 Q1FY2021 was wash-out quarter; recovery since June 25 Key conference call highlights 25 Q1FY2021 Result tables 26 Right Valuation Outlook - Pandemic to affect FY2021, recovery likely in FY2022 27 Valuation 27 One-year forward P/E band 27 One-year forward P/BV (x) band 28 One-year forward EV/EBIDTA (x) band 28 Peer comparison 28 Key financials P/L account 29 Balance Sheet 29 Cash Flow Statement 30 Key Ratios 30 Pidilite snapshot Company background 31 Investment theme 31 Key risks 31 Key management personnel 31 Top 10 shareholders 31 3R Philosophy definitions 32 August 07, 2020 4 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Idea Stock Why we like construction chemicals industry India’s construction chemicals industry is at a nascent stage with a market size of ~Rs. 6,500-7000 crore, which is just 4-5% of the global construction chemicals market. Increase in construction and infrastructure activities with a strong adherence to quality will drive demand for construction chemicals in the near to medium term. Further, the growing adoption of green-building concept and increasing government regulations pertaining to the use of high-quality waterproofing systems with low volatile organic compounds (VOC) and insulation would result shift to products with brand recognition in the medium to long term. Construction Chemicals Concrete Flooring Repair & Miscellaneous ad-mixtures Water Proofing Compounds Rehabilitation Polyurethane Epoxy & floor Cementitous Ligno-based Sealants based hardeners repair mortar SNF & SMF Polyurethane Polymer repair Bitumen based Grouts based coating mortar Polymer-SBR, Polyurea Epoxy based PCE based Adhesives Acrylic based resin mortar Source: Industry reports, Sharekhan Research Overview of construction chemical market in India The Indian construction chemicals market clocked strong growth of ~16% over CY2007-17 due to growing urbanisation, construction boom and growing awareness in the industry for better quality product.
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