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Pidilite Industries PIDI.NS, PIDI in a Stock to Bond With; Initiate with Overweight Price: Rs315.00 Price Target: Rs375.00

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Pidilite Industries PIDI.NS, PIDI in a Stock to Bond With; Initiate with Overweight Price: Rs315.00 Price Target: Rs375.00 Asia Pacific Equity Research 03 May 2014 Initiation Overweight Pidilite Industries PIDI.NS, PIDI IN A stock to bond with; initiate with Overweight Price: Rs315.00 Price Target: Rs375.00 Initiate with Overweight and Mar-15 PT of Rs375. Pidilite Industries (PIDI) is India a leading adhesive & construction chemical manufacturer in India and holds a Building Materials near-monopolistic share (50-70%) across its key brands (Fevicol/M Seal/Dr Fixit). AC Gunjan Prithyani PIDI has delivered revenue and EPS growth of 17% over the last three years (91-22) 6157-3593 despite challenging fundamentals for discretionary and construction spends. We [email protected] expect growth to be sustained, especially given expectations of a macro Bloomberg JPMA PRITHYANI <GO> improvement and a pick-up in industrial activity in 2H. Recent improvement in its J.P. Morgan India Private Limited underperforming international portfolio should also aid growth. Valuation of Saurabh Kumar 27.7x FY15E P/E is at a premium to its trading history, but this should continue (91-22) 6157-3590 given its increasing FCF generation, strong ROE profile, and overall valuation re- [email protected] rating seen across the building products space. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited Glued to steady growth: PIDI has a long-standing track record of delivering Leon Chik, CFA steady revenue and earnings growth with minimal volatility, especially in its (852) 2800-8590 [email protected] consumer-facing business. New product launches and increasing growth in tier- J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited 2 towns have been aided by a strong brand equity and widespread distribution network (1MM+ points of presence). Also notwithstanding cost pressures in Price Performance key RM (VAM, Oil derivatives) and expected ad rate inflation, we think PIDI 340 can hold on to margins given its improving contribution mix and ability to pass 300 on costs via price rises (consistent history of over 10 years). We model revenue Rs 260 growth of 15-16% in FY15/16, similar to FY14’s. Improvement in discretionary spending or industrial activity in 2H could provide upside to growth trends. 220 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 International business now nearing a turnaround after being a drag on PIDI.NS share price (Rs) NIFTY (rebased) financials since FY08. We are encouraged by growth and margin improvement YTD 1m 3m 12m seen over 9M FY14 driven by price increases and cost control along with Abs 10.1% 2.1% 14.0% 25.9% initiatives taken to strengthen local management and marketing teams. In Brazil Rel 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 14.3% (one of the biggest markets in the international portfolio) PIDI’s losses shrank significantly in 9M and it is targeting cash breakeven over the next year. Earnings and valuations: Our expected EPS growth for the business over the next two years is 19%. Our DCF valuation imputes a COE of 12.5% and long- term growth of 6%. PIDI’s closest competitors in the Paints space – APNT (UW, covered by Latika Chopra) and Berger (Not Covered) – trade at comparable or higher multiples and have similar industry structure, business model, demand fundamentals (home improvement), and cost and margin profile. Pidilite Industries (Reuters: PIDI.NS, Bloomberg: PIDI IN) Rs in mn, year-end Mar FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Company Data Revenue (Rs mn) 31,097 36,579 42,395 48,993 57,101 Shares O/S (mn) 508 Revenue growth (%) 17.6% 17.6% 15.9% 15.6% 16.5% Market Cap (Rs mn) 159,909 EBITDA (Rs mn) 4,926 5,990 7,327 8,606 10,128 Market Cap ($ mn) 2,650 EBITDA Margin 15.8% 16.4% 17.3% 17.6% 17.7% Price (Rs) 315.00 Net Profit (Rs mn) 3,244 4,221 4,863 5,837 6,876 Date Of Price 02 May 14 EPS (Rs) 6.39 8.23 9.49 11.39 13.41 3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 0.22 DPS (Rs) 1.90 2.60 3.32 3.99 4.69 3M - Avg daily val (Rs mn) 65.77 P/E(x) 49.3 38.3 33.2 27.7 23.5 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 1.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 32.7 26.8 21.9 18.4 15.5 NIFTY 6694.80 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Exchange Rate 60.33 Price Target End Date 31-Mar-15 See page 33 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Gunjan Prithyani Asia Pacific Equity Research (91-22) 6157-3593 03 May 2014 [email protected] Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view: - Pick-up in growth trends as macro - Higher-than-expected growth trends - Cash deployment in non-core acquisition or Elastomer improves and industrial activity revives project - Faster-than-expected cash breakeven in international - Trends in international business operations - Delay in international cash breakeven especially Brazil - Sharp decline in VAM prices and consequent margin - Sustained weak macro impacting the growth trends - Increase in dividend payout given improvement strong FCF generation and net cash balance sheet - Stake sale in Elastomer project Key financial metrics FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Valuation and price target basis Revenues (Rs M) 36,579 42,395 48,993 57,101 Our Mar-15 price target of Rs375 is based on DCF, factoring in a COE of 17.6% 15.9% 15.6% 16.5% 12.5% and long-term growth of 6%. This implies a 28x forward P/E, which Revenue growth (%) is 1SD above PIDI's mean valuation for the last two years and at a ~20% EBITDA (Rs M) 5,990 7,327 8,606 10,128 discount to ANPT’s average trading multiple for the last two years. EBITDA margin (%) 16.4% 17.3% 17.6% 17.7% Tax rate (%) 27.5% 27.5% 28.0% 29.0% Net profit (Rs M) 4,239 4,863 5,837 6,876 EPS (Rs / share) 8.2 9.5 11.4 13.4 EPS growth (%) 28.9% 15.2% 20.0% 17.8% BVPS (Rs / share) 32 38 45 52 Operating cash flow (Rs mn) 5,175 3,654 5,510 6,277 Net margin (%) 11.6% 11.5% 11.9% 12.0% Sales/assets (X) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 Net debt/equity (%) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) ROE (%) 28% 27% 28% 28% Key model assumptions FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Consumer & Bazaar growth 20.7% 15.1% 15.2% 16.2% Industrial segment growth 8.5% 14.5% 12.6% 14.8% International growth 11.6% 22.0% 18.0% 18.0% Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Sensitivity analysis EBITDA EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates Sensitivity to FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E EPS FY15E FY16E 5% change in Domestic growth rates -1.0% -1.9% -1.0% -1.9% JPMe old NA NA JPMe new 11.4 13.4 +1% change in EBITDA margin -5.4% -5.5% -5.4% -5.5% % chg NA NA Consensus 11.5 13.6 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Pidilite: Comparative analysis with other building product companies Pidilite Asian Paints Kajaria Ceramics Hindustan Greenply Sanitary-ware 5 year Revenue CAGR (FY09-14) 17% 18% 23% 25% 22% EBIT margin (avg 5 year) 16.4% 16.3% 12.5% 11.3% 7.7% ROE (avg 5 year) 30% 36.0% 28.3% 10.0% 18.6% Net D/E (0.2) (0.2) 0.5 0.9 1.2 Dividend payout 30%+ ~40% ~20% 15-20% 15% Earnings growth 34% 25% 68.4% 3.8% 15.6% P/E 27.7 34.6 22.6 15.6 6.8 EV/EBIT 20.3 22.5 12.2 10.6 5.3 Source: Company 2 Gunjan Prithyani Asia Pacific Equity Research (91-22) 6157-3593 03 May 2014 [email protected] Table of Contents Investment Summary ...............................................................4 Initiate with Overweight and Mar-15 PT of Rs375 ...................................................5 DCF valuation: what is the stock pricing in?............................................................6 Stock price performance and key catalysts ...............................................................6 Investment Positives................................................................7 Industry leader in adhesives space; Diversification into non adhesive segments has also yielded positive results .....................................................................................7 Strong connect with demand influencers has helped build brand equity ....................8 Multiple growth drivers...........................................................................................9 Growth has moderated but still strong at 15%+......................................................10 Key segments .........................................................................11 Consumer & Bazaar: Retail products driving the growth........................................11 Industrial Chemicals: Weak domestic trends offset by pick-up in exports on rupee depreciation ..........................................................................................................13 Others: Specialty acetates......................................................................................14 International business witnessing improving trends; Brazil cash break-even likely in the next year..........................................................................................................15 Strong FCF generation and net cash balance sheet provides scope for higher dividend payout...................................................................................................................17 Expect margins to stay firm...................................................................................18 Investment risks .....................................................................19 Spike in VAM prices or FX depreciation could lead to margin volatility in the near term… ..................................................................................................................19 Cash deployment in non-core business remains a risk ............................................20 Elastomer project remains a drag on returns; strategic tie-up could remove an overhang...............................................................................................................20 Lower-than-expected domestic growth trends ........................................................20 Pidilite Industries: Comparative analysis.............................22 PIDI vs. Paints companies (Asian Paints)...............................................................22 PIDI vs.
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