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Wilby RL, Nicholls RJ, Warren R, Wheater HS, Clarke D, Dawson RJ. Keeping nuclear and other coastal sites safe from climate change. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Civil Engineering 2011, 164(3), 129-136.

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Robinson Library, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne. NE1 7RU. Tel. 0191 222 6000 Proceedings of ICE Civil Engineering 164 August 2011 Pages 129–136 Paper 1100005

doi: 10.1680/cien.2011.164.3.129 Keywords nuclear power; risk & probability analysis; weather Keeping nuclear and Robert L. Wilby BSc, PhD is professor of hydroclimatic other coastal sites safe modelling in the geography department at Loughborough from climate change University, Loughborough, UK

Robert J. Nicholls BSc, PhD The UK’s eight proposed new nuclear power stations are all to be is professor of coastal engineering in the school of civil engineering and sited on the coast. With a total cradle-to-grave life cycle of at least the environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research 160 years, and heightened awareness of inundation risk following at the University of Southampton, the failure of the Fukushima I nuclear plant in Japan this year, Southampton, UK Britain’s nuclear developers have to show how they plan to cope

Rachel Warren with the possibility of rising sea levels, higher sea temperatures and BA, PhD is leader of the Community more extreme weather events over the next two centuries. This Integrated Assessment System paper describes the adaptation options for new nuclear and other (CIAS) at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at East major long-lived coastal developments. Despite uncertainty about Anglia University, Norwich, UK climate scenarios for the 2200s, it explains how flexibility of design Howard S. Wheater MSc, PhD, FICE, FREng and safety margins can be incorporated from the outset and, is a professor in the school of the when combined with routine environmental monitoring, how environment and sustainability at the University of Saskatchewan, sites can be adaptively managed throughout their life cycles. Saskatoon, SK, Canada

Derek Clarke BSc, PhD The UK government’s Climate Change emissions and adapting (i.e. reducing is a lecturer in the school of civil Act 2008 (2008) sets out a long-term vulnerability) to unavoidable climate engineering and the environment commitment to reduce national emis- change. and the Tyndall Centre for Climate sions of greenhouse gases by 80% by Change Research at the University 2050. The UK Low Carbon Transition In short, the plan seeks to cut green- of Southampton, Southampton, UK Plan (HM Government, 2009) contains house gas emissions while improving the five points of action security of energy supply and maximising economic opportunities. This would be Richard J. Dawson n MEng, PhD protecting the public from immediate achieved through a mix of clean energy risks (such as heat waves, flooding technologies such as renewables, nuclear is reader in earth systems and coastal erosion) and carbon capture and storage. engineering in the school of civil n factoring climate change into the The scale of the challenge is daunt- engineering and geosciences and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change design of new infrastructure and ing. First, the emission-reduction targets Research at Newcastle University, plans for natural resource manage- must be achieved against a backdrop of Newcastle, UK ment (such as water) aging power-generation infrastructure, at n limiting global temperature increases least cost to the taxpayer and with nature to less than 2°C through international conservation in mind. By 2020 about agreements on emissions one-quarter of the UK’s electricity-gen- n building a low-carbon-dioxide econo- erating capacity will need to be replaced my with the immediate aim of cutting (Huhne, 2010). UK emissions by 34% by the 2020s Second, it is estimated that the UK n supporting individuals, communities economy would have to achieve annual and businesses in reducing their own rates of carbon-dioxide reduction or Delivered by ICEVirtualLibrary.com to: CIVIL ENGINEERING IP: 128.240.229.67 129 On: Mon, 05 Dec 2011 11:36:12 Wilby, Nichols, warren, wheater, clarke and dawson

‘decarbonisation’ in excess of 4%. This Despite the large uncertainty over mental grounds (plus erosion and flood equates to around 30 new nuclear power regional climate change over such time risks in the case of Dungeness). This stations to reach the 2006 ‘carbon effi- scales, the paper demonstrates that left eight sites for further consideration: ciency’ of France by 2015 (Pielke, 2009). there is still a range of practical steps Bradwell in Essex; Hartlepool; Heysham Third, the Severn tidal power that can be taken to manage the evolv- in Lancashire; Hinkley Point in Somerset; scheme could provide up to 5% of ing risks and maintain them at accept- Oldbury in Gloucestershire; Sellafield in current electricity generation, but able levels throughout the life cycle of Cumbria; Sizewell in Suffolk; and Wylfa the 2010 feasibility study concluded nuclear power stations – and that these on Anglesey (Figure 1). that costs to the taxpayer and risks to are equally applicable to all other major Separate provisions apply at the level of the environment would be excessive developments near the coast. individual prospective sites. The Energy compared to other ‘low carbon’ energy Act 2008 (2008) demands that operators options. Hence the UK government Legislative context of new nuclear power stations meet in full currently believes that a mix of nuclear their waste-management, waste-disposal power, wind energy and fossil fuel power The UK Planning Act (2008) intro- and decommissioning costs. EU legisla- stations connected to carbon capture and duced energy national policy statements. tion further requires that before any new storage systems is a better option. These set out the framework for approv- designs of nuclear reactors can be intro- The primary aim of this paper is to ing nationally significant infrastructure duced they must first undergo high-level consider how climate risks might evolve for supplying low-carbon energy. Separate assessment to determine that the eco- and be managed during the design, oper- statements are provided for fossil fuels, nomic, social and other benefits outweigh ation, decommissioning and fuel-storage renewables, gas supply and gas and oil potential health and waste-management phases of new nuclear power stations. It pipelines, electricity networks and nuclear. detriments (BERA, 2008). begins by outlining the legislative context Strategic siting and environmental Applications must also have due regard to the latest era of nuclear power expan- assessment processes (see Table 1) ini- for a raft of planning policy statements sion. It then describes components of tially identified 11 UK sites in the vicinity (Table 2). For example, PPS1 (ODPM, sea-level rise, which potentially increase of existing facilities that are potentially 2005a) challenges applicants to consider the risk of coastal erosion and flooding suitable for new nuclear power stations. how their proposals for development con- of the proposed nuclear sites over the The government subsequently rejected tribute to reducing emissions and adapt- next two centuries. three of the sites primarily on environ- ing to unavoidable climate change. PPS25

Table 1. Nearly half of the UK government’s criteria for evaluating nuclear sites are potentially affected by climate change Torness Sites currently generating Strategic siting assessment criteria Potentially affected by Hunterston Shut-down sites climate change SCOTLAND Nominated new sites Demographics x Proximity to military activities x Chapelcross Flooding ü Hartlepool Coastal processes ü Sellafield Proximity to hazardous industrial facilities x Proximity to civil aircraft movements x Heysham Internationally designated sites of ecological importance ü Nationally designated sites of ecological importance ü Wylfa Areas of amenity, cultural heritage and landscape value x

Size of site to accommodate operation x Trawsfynyndd Access to suitable sources of cooling ü ENGLAND Sizewell WALES Table 2. A raft of planning policy statements affects new nuclear site proposals in the UK Berkeley Reference Title Bradwell PPS1 Delivering Sustainable Development (and the Climate Change Oldbury Supplement) (ODPM, 2005a) Hinkley Point PPS4 Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth (DCLG, 2009) Dungeness PPS5 Planning for the Historic Environment (DCLG, 2010a) PPS9 Biodiversity and Geological Conservation (ODPM, 2005b) PPS25 Development and Flood Risk (DCLG, 2010b) PPG13 Transport (DCLG, 2011) PPG17 Open Space, Sport and Recreation (ODPM, 2002) Figure 1. All eight nominated sites for Britain’s new nuclear power stations PPG20 Coastal Planning (DoE, 1992) are on the coastline

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(DCLG, 2010b) requires that flood risk beyond the site footprint. Clearly, end of July 2011. These risk assessments be taken into account at all stages in the operators need to have an understanding presume information on future physi- planning process to avoid inappropriate of how the coast might change during the cal characteristics such as coastal and development in areas at risk of flooding, full life cycle of the nuclear plant. river erosion, which is clearly beyond the and directs development away from areas The UK Department for Environment, scope of UKCP09. at the highest risk. Despite the impera- Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)’s standard Therefore, operators will need to tive for low-carbon energy in the national guidance on managing flood and coastal develop their own projections to ensure policy statements, consideration must still risk management under climate change that the main risks to assets and opera- be given to the relevant county structure (Defra, 2006) applies up to the year 2115. tions are covered. Developers must also plan and local plans of affected districts. However, the Environment Agency’s adhere to the long-term obligations of Public consultations are already underway draft principles (Environment Agency, environmental legislation such as the EU for the Hinkley Point proposed nuclear 2010) recognise that the full life-cycle of a water framework and habitats directives development. newly commissioned nuclear power plant (EC, 1992, 2000). The Environment Agency has also pro- could extend into the late twenty-second vided operators with interim guidance for century when accounting for the design Extreme sea levels flood and coastal risk management at new (<10 years), operation (>60 years), decom- nuclear station sites (Environment Agency, missioning (around 20 years) and waste- As is clear from Figure 1, all of the UK’s 2010). This explains the need for systemat- storage phases (around 80 years). The proposed nuclear sites are located near the ic monitoring of environmental indicators, latest UK climate projections (UKCP09) coast. Not surprisingly, risks posed by sea- periodic review and sensitivity testing of (Lowe et al., 2009) do not directly assist level rise, coastal erosion and storm surges plans in the context of climate change. with these latter decades, nor is any have figured prominently in the analyses of Integrated modelling is revealing interim guidance offered on the ‘credible long-term site integrity. The astronomical the extent to which flood and coastal maximum climate change scenario’ for drivers of tidal cycles are well understood erosion risks are connected by long-shore the period to 2200. Furthermore, dif- and are unlikely to change significantly in exchange of sediments and morphological ferent adaptation objectives will apply at the near- to mid-term (100–200 years). change (Dawson et al., 2009). For each life-cycle stage. Relative sea-level change is mainly driven example, where coastal defences are Finally, the Climate Change Act 2008 by a combination of climate-controlled and no longer maintained beyond the site (2008) requires all companies with geologically controlled components, which perimeter, there could be beneficial functions of a public nature (‘report- all need to be understood when developing sediment supply to the site’s beach, ing bodies’) to prepare reports on how local scenarios. but increased erosion and flood risk to they are assessing and responding to Given the utmost importance of neighbouring land that is beyond the the risks and opportunities presented by nuclear safety, this paper presents upper- control of the operator. Demonstrating climate change (http://ww2.defra.gov.uk/ end estimates for each component based that the works at new nuclear power environment/climate/sectors/reporting- on the values reported by UKCP09 and sites will not cause or exacerbate coastal authorities/). Early reporting authori- the Delta Commission (Vellinga et al., change or erosion risk elsewhere will, ties, including National Grid Electricity 2009) for 2100 and 2200, respectively. therefore, require integrated assessment Transmission, submitted reports in Indicative values are provided for the site of the control exerted by multiple actors, January 2011; electricity generators at Sizewell on the east coast of England including any adaptive management must provide adaptation plans by the (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Sizewell B, Britain’s newest nuclear power station, was completed on the coast of Suffolk in eastern England in 1995

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UKCP09 refers to the high-plus-plus hydrological cycle, including global Regional spatial variations in sea-level (H++) scenario – a physically plausible, groundwater depletion, impound- change due to oceanographic factors high-end scenario of indeterminate ment of water in reservoirs and land Examples include differences in the rates probability which provides a worst-case drainage. As these processes have of oceanic thermal expansion, changes in scenario for sensitivity testing across the both positive and negative effects long-term wind and atmospheric pressure, range of possible futures. The H++ sce- on sea level, the net effect could be and changes in ocean circulation (such nario was utilised in the Thames Estuary small or negligible. as the Gulf Stream). While it is agreed 2100 project, which looked at the future that these factors could be significant, of flood risk management in the tidal Regional spatial variations in sea-level causing large regional departures of up to Thames (Environment Agency, 2009). change from gravitational effects 50–100% from the global average value of Over the course of the twenty-first These arise from the redistribution of the thermal expansion component of sea- century and beyond, six major com- mass due to the melting of land-based level rise, coupled ocean–atmosphere cli- ponents of extreme sea level must be ice. When ice masses melt, the local mate models of these effects under global considered for the UK east coast as dis- gravitational pull decreases and sea warming show little agreement on where cussed below. levels fall in the near vicinity. Further the deviations might occur. afield sea-level rise may be greater than Collapse of the thermohaline circulation Global mean sea-level rise as a result of the global mean. is thought to be unlikely by 2100, but an increase in global ocean volume The uneven and shifting loads also additional allowance of 0·6 m was made UKCP09 cites an upper limit of cause the solid Earth to deform, thereby by the Delta Commission for local expan- 2·5 m for global mean sea-level rise affecting the gravity field and produc- sion in the north Atlantic Ocean by 2200. over the twenty-first century based on ing a distinctive pattern of sea-level rise. climate analogues (derived from Red Local estimates for this gravitational Regional variations and trends in sea Sea sediments and coral) (Rohling et ‘fingerprint’ vary enormously. For exam- level due to vertical land movements al., 2008). The Delta Commission used ple, the Netherlands Delta Commission This covers uplift and subsidence due a semi-empirical approach (Rahmstorf, used scaling factors spanning 1·1 to 2·6 to various natural and human-induced 2007) and, assuming a global mean tem- for Antarctic ice and 0·2 to –2·5 when geological processes. While the Earth’s perature increase of up to 8°C by 2200, estimating the contribution of each to surface may appear stable, vertical land arrived at an upper limit of 3·5 m for sea-level rise along the Dutch coast movement is almost universal to varying global mean ocean expansion. Projected (Vellinga et al., 2009). degrees. Natural causes include tectonics, changes in ocean volume are primarily The overall UK/global mean ratio for neotectonics (including glacio-isostatic due to the following. sea-level rise used by UKCP09 was 0·76 adjustment), and sediment compaction for 2100. and consolidation. In the UK, these n Thermal expansion of the upper ocean as it warms. n Melting of small glaciers and ice 2.5 2.5 caps. Observed Observed n Contribution of the Greenland (GIS) 2.0 2.0 and Antarctic ice sheets (Velicogna, CGCM2 m . m .

1 5 1 5 CSIRO

2009). Until recently, the Antarc- e: e: tic ice sheet was expected to grow 1.0 1.0 Surg Surg in size due to increased snowfall, . . producing a small fall in sea level, 0 5 0 5 while the GIS, being much more 0 0 sensitive to changes in temperature, 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 was expected to lose mass. However, 2.5 2.5 recent observations of the GIS show Observed Observed . . rapid rates of melting with conse- 2 0 2 0 ECHAM HadCM3 quent upward revisions of its con- m . m . 1 5 1 5 tribution to sea-level rise. Renewed e: e: 1.0 1.0 concern about instability of the west Surg Surg Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) has raised 0.5 0.5 the possibility of a large positive con- tribution to sea level from Antarctica 0 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 during the twenty-first century and beyond (Bamber et al., 2009). n Direct human influence on sea Figure 3. Predictions of annual maximum tidal surge at Sheerness from four climate models compared level due to modifications to the with observations up to 2000 – trends are hard to detect (source: Wilby (2008)) Delivered by ICEVirtualLibrary.com to: 132 ProCeedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – CIVIL ENGINEERINGIP: 128.240.229.67, 2011, 164, No. CE3 issn 0965 089 X On: Mon, 05 Dec 2011 11:36:12 Keeping nuclear and other coastal sites safe from climate change

changes are usually slow and steady due coastline (see for example Figure 3). winter mean wave height, and –1·5 m to to the absence of earthquakes. However, the climate model with the +1·0 m for the annual maxima. However, human activity may increase largest increase in storminess over the The effects of the six components are local rates of subsidence in susceptible UK region yields an upper-end change summarised in Table 3. This shows that coastal lowlands via land reclamation, in the surge of +1·3 m for the east coast in the worst case, the components could lowering water tables through water (Lowe et al., 2009). linearly combine to change extreme extraction and improved drainage, and water levels by up to +4·3 m by 2100 and peat destruction due to oxidation and Regional variations in significant wave up to +5·8 m by 2200. Figure 4 shows erosion. UKCP09 employed the results height anticipated worst-case extreme water of a glacial isostatic adjustment model This is due to long-term changes in levels around the UK in 2100 excluding constrained by observations (Bradley et wind strength and direction, combined changes in the wave environment. al., 2009) to estimate vertical land move- with any local adjustments to shoreline ments around the UK. This yields a local and offshore bathymetry. There is rela- Adaptation options estimate of around 0·1 m/century for tively limited information on changing the east coast of England and this rate is wave conditions. It is generally accepted Since the various constituents of sea assumed to apply to 2200. that wave heights have increased in the level rise are from different sources it boreal winter over the past half-century is not possible to attach return periods Regional variations in tidal surge magnitude in the high latitudes of the northern hem- or probabilities to the resulting levels. This is due to long-term changes in isphere (especially in parts of the north Indeed, estimation of the nuclear industry wind and storminess. When low-pressure Atlantic) (Wang et al., 2009). standard 10–5 event is problematic under systems track across the ocean they cause The Delta Commission concluded that any circumstances, let alone for 2200. the underlying water column to ‘bulge’. projected changes in the wave climate are This implies that additional techniques for The magnitude of the surge depends on small relative to natural variability, vary managing risk are needed beyond a con- the minimum pressure and wind speeds, between climate models because of their ventional scenario-led approach. as well as on funnelling effects by coast- differing wind fields, and are insensitive Other disciplines are increasingly line features and estuaries. to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario. turning to vulnerability-led or ‘bottom- Atlantic storm frequency and intensity Relatively short observational records up’ methods of adapting to uncertain vary from year to year, decade to decade, further compound the large uncertainty climate change. It is recognised that and century to century, so any trends in wave statistics. This uncertainty societal responses to climate hazards are hard to detect. Future climate-driven is reflected in the range of UKCP09 can take many different forms, ranging changes in surges are expected to lie projections of future wave climate, which from changes in behaviour to reduce risk within historic variability for the UK span –35 cm to +5 cm for changes in the exposure, through to major investments in

Table 3. Worst-case components of extreme seawater levels for 2100 and 2200 relative to 1990 for the east coast of England – within less than a century they could rise by over 4 m 58N Component of sea level rise Rise by 2100 Rise by 2200 Comments for 2200 (UKCP09 (various): m H++): m 56N Global mean sea-level rise due to ice- +2·5 +3·5 Assumes Delta Commission (Vellinga melt plus thermal expansion et al. 2009) upper estimate for global mean sea level rise due to partial 54N melt of the Greenland ice sheet, west Antarctic ice sheet and small glaciers combined with thermal expansion

52N Adjustment for UK mean sea-level –0·6 –0·8 Assumes local / global mean ratio rise to reflect elastic and gravitational (‘fingerprint’) of 0·76 (as in UKCP09 effects (Lowe et al., 2009))

50N Local expansion of the north Atlantic – +0·6 Assumes upper estimate of the Delta Ocean due to the collapse of the Commission (Vellinga et al., 2009) thermohaline circulation 5W 0 Vertical land movement (east coast +0·1 +0·2 Assumes +0·1 m per century of England)

2·1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 Tidal surge (east coast) +1·3 +1·3 Assumes no change to the 1:50 year Rise in 1:50 year sea levels by 2100 (excluding wave increase): m skew surge given by UKCP09 (Lowe et al., 2009) or any change in surge- Figure 4. Worst-case extreme (1:50 year) sea tide interactions from 2100 levels predicted around the UK by 2100 – this Change in annual maximum significant +1·0 +1·0 Assumes no change in significant excludes increases in significant wave heights, wave height (east coast) wave height from 2100 which are expected to be 1 m on the east coast (source: Lowe et al. (2009)) Total +4·3 +5·8

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new assets to protect vital infrastructure adapt to climate change, as well as other design, accompanied by systematic moni- and/or better forecasting and contingency relevant drivers (Hallegate, 2009). toring and maintenance. Here adaptation planning (see Table 4). Anticipatory (or proactive) adaptation at to a specified amount of climate change is Robust adaptation measures are typically the level of nuclear sites requires different factored from the outset. low-regret, reversible, incorporate safety types of evidence and approach at different On the other hand, designs with smaller margins, employ ‘soft’ solutions (that is phases in the project life cycle (see Table 5). freeboard, yet greater capacity for more adjustments to operational practice), are Two contrasting design strategies might frequent upgrade and retro-fit, might be flexible and yet are mindful of actions be adopted. On the one hand, large safety incorporated. This strategy puts more being taken by others to either mitigate or margins might be incorporated within the emphasis on continued surveillance of risks, as well as on corporate and regula- Table 4. Adaptation to reduce vulnerability to climate change can take many forms tory stability over many decades. Adaptation type Example adaptation activities New infrastructure Surface water impoundments Flood defence systems Design and operational phases Resource management Assess natural resource availability During the design phase, the latest cli- Adjust scheduling or allocation Reduce co-stressors mate projections and expert judgements of Retro-fit Upgrade infrastructure to cope with more frequent and/or severe extreme events hazards can be incorporated within safety Behavioural Forecasts to increase preparedness and guide risk reduction measures margins for fundamental elements such Institutional Regulation, monitoring and reporting to maintain or improve levels of service and safety as platform level. Indeed, the UK nuclear Sectoral Economic planning power industry is already assimilating Sector restructuring Professional guidance knowledge of the extreme levels described Standards and codes in Table 3. Communication Raise awareness of risks to vulnerable groups Potentially vulnerable features of the High-level advocacy and policy triggers Financial Spread risk by insurance services overall design can be identified (such Incentives to change behaviour as internal flooding via cooling-system ingress) and constructed to much higher Table 5. Risk considerations, evidence and adaptation options for the various life-cycle phases of standards. Modelling can be used to coastal nuclear sites explore potential changes in the behaviour Phase Risk considerations Evidence Adaptation options of the heat sink or the future distribution Consent, design National planning statement High-resolution topographic Incorporate safety margins of marine species such as jellyfish and and construction Platform level survey of sites and shoreline Sensitivity testing of options (<10 years) Flood erosion and defence line position Set aside for retro-fit and storage eel. This information could be used in the Beach nourishment Health and Safety Executive Modular or flexible design specification of new cooling-water intakes Heat sink, recirculation and hazard metrics Apply higher standards of design siltation Probabilistic scenarios to most vulnerable elements and outfalls (Figure 5). Site access Expert judgement (H++ Design monitoring and review Vulnerable elements within scenario) programme Modular designs, particularly for com- overall design (cooling system Marine/estuary modelling Install monitoring systems ponents most sensitive to sea-level rise, ingress) Data on joint occurrence of Site drainage extremes and the setting aside of land can help Impact on protected areas Fluvial flood and build flexibility and contingency within Other major infrastructure plans geomorphological scenarios Socio-political scenarios the site plan to accommodate large uncer- Bioclimatic envelope modelling tainty in rates of sea-level rise, coastal ero- Operational Re-fuelling Shoreline and sandbank positions Early-warning systems sion and flooding. (60+ years) Pumping water/ energy costs Storm intensity Routine monitoring and review Periodic safety review (every Wave environment of evolving hazards and marine It is critical that monitoring systems 10 years) Extreme precipitation ecosystems Economic performance Heat waves Detailed survey of coastal are established so that data on evolv- Disruption to supply chains Extreme tidal levels (high and defence and flood protection ing hazards and conditions on/around Legislation (e.g. EU water low) assets framework directive, Joint occurrence of extremes Identify trigger points for change the site can help plan for any retro-fit national climate change Marine species distributions Upgrade to higher specification or upgrade throughout the operational risk assessment, marine on replacement/retro-fit protected zones, marine Adjust periodic review cycle- lifetime. Indeed, real-time information on strategy framework, shoreline length as required changing environmental factors and asset management plans) Create new habitats (to Heat sink, recirculation and compensate for losses) conditions is critical to adaptive manage- siltation Develop shared strategy with Bio-fouling and entrainment neighbours for managing the ment within a periodic review process. (frequency and seasonality) coast/estuary The data inventory should include repeat, Management of neighbouring land along the coast/estuary high-resolution surveys of shoreline posi- Decommissioning De-fuelling Post-2100 climate Routine monitoring and review tion and elevation, routine measurement (20 years) Dismantling site scenarios of evolving hazards and marine of tide and wave heights, marine biota, Storing residual hazard ecosystems Create new habitats and in situ meteorology. Much of this Fuel storage Risk target of 10–6/year for Climate scenarios to 2200 Redesign, raise and/or protect information is required for shoreline (80+ years) serious health effects Simulation of long-term coastal storage areas management at the sub-cell and cell level Site security evolution Monitoring of site and Post-institutional (passive) use(s) environmental pathways (http://archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/ Physical relocation flooding/documents/policy/guidance/smp-

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guide/smpgvol1.pdf), so there is scope for blueprint for adaptation, not least because of today. There should also be a further coordination and cost-saving. there is no single adaptation pathway century of monitoring and scientific The operational phase may last more or ‘end point’. But there is consensus endeavour to support decision making. For than 60 years. During this time, the plant amongst climate models that the seal-level instance, decade-to-decade variations in will be subject to periodic safety reviews rise commitment is for centuries to come north Atlantic storminess might be better and legislation to minimise environmental (Eby et al., 2009). Furthermore, unless understood and predicted. However, the impact, as indicated in Table 5. Co-benefits there is stabilisation of greenhouse gas companies that installed the power plants may arise from shared strategies for man- concentrations, the risk of abrupt climate may no longer exist, so some thought is aging the coastal zone with neighbouring change – leading to rapid changes in mean needed about continuity management and land-owners. For example, sea-level rise sea level – is expected to increase with regulation of sites. may accelerate erosion of the headlands time (Lenton et al., 2008). to the north of Sizewell and ultimately Therefore, ahead of the decommission- Discussion and conclusions inundate the Minsmere nature reserve ing and fuel-storage phases, the onus must (Figure 6). This may help to nourish the be on planning for the long-term security All of Britain’s proposed sites for new foreshore of Sizewell but could lead to the and integrity of the site. Depending on the nuclear plant are located on or near the loss of valuable coastal habitats without a pace of sea-level rise it may be necessary coast. The risks posed by rising sea levels, shared plan for managed realignment. to redesign, raise or increase the protec- coastal erosion and flooding thus figure Higher ocean temperatures have already tion of repositories. It is not inconceivable prominently in assessments of site integ- extended the northerly geographical range that some sites could eventually become rity. However, the life cycles of the new of fish species such as sardine, anchovy, headlands or even islands, heavily defend- plants extend well into the twenty-second red mullet and bass, and been linked to ed against tidal erosion, flooding and wave century, a time horizon for which there is extensive restructuring of phytoplankton attack. The ultimate adaptation solution very little climate risk information in gen- and zooplankton communities in the north would be to relocate the stored material. eral, and especially at the site scale. Atlantic. Thermal discharges to the coastal Finally, it should be kept in mind that Furthermore, several important com- zone could place greater heat stress on the institutional and societal priorities in ponents of extreme sea level are poorly protected species at the southern limits of the future are unlikely to resemble those understood, leading to large uncertainty their range in these environments. Again, routine monitoring would be an essential means of tracking any additional impacts of the plant on long-term environmental quality. If the pace of change accelerates, the cycle length of periodic reviews could be reduced. Power plant owners will also want to keep disruption of operations to a minimum (such as bio-fouling of intakes, recirculation of the thermal plume, tempo- rary reductions in the heat-sink efficiency, flooding or wave over-topping damage to infrastructure). Changes in the marine Figure 5. Cooling water headworks at Sizewell A nuclear power station, which is currently being environment and storminess could reduce decommissioned – such features are potentially vulnerable to climate change effects, including the economic performance of the plant changes in marine species through more frequent outages or higher pumping and refuelling costs. Periodic upgrading to higher specifications when screens or pumps are replaced could help counteract these concerns. Longer-lead and/or more accurate extreme weather forecasts could facilitate rescheduling of maintenance or trigger contingency plans.

Decommissioning phase Ahead of decommissioning (Table 5), there will be a need to envision future conditions and land-use options at the Figure 6. Sizewell B power station viewed from the bird reserve at Minsmere, which faces inundation site, extending well into the twenty-second from sea level rise – sharing climate change adaptation strategies with neighbouring coastal century and beyond. There is no universal landowners could be beneficial Delivered by ICEVirtualLibrary.com to: issn 0965 089 X ProCIP:eedings 128.240.229.67 of the Institution of Civil Engineers – CIVIL ENGINEERING, 2011, 164, No. CE3 135 On: Mon, 05 Dec 2011 11:36:12 Wilby, Nichols, warren, wheater, clarke and dawson

bounds in climate model projections. References Environment Agency (2010) Principles for Flood and Nonetheless, physically plausible upper- Coastal Risk Management at New Nuclear Power limit estimates indicate that extreme water Bamber JL, Riva REM, Vermeersen BLA and Stations in England and Wales. Environment LeBroq AM (2009) Reassessment of the Agency, New Nuclear Build, Environment and levels (net sea level plus tidal surge plus potential sea level rise from a collapse of the Business, Bristol, UK. significant waves) on the east coast of West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science 324 (5929): Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncer- England could change by up to +4·3 m by 901–903. tain climate change. Global Environmental Change BERR (Department for Business, Enterprise and 19(2): 240–247. 2100 and by up to +5·8 m by 2200. 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Environment Agency, – Synthesis Report. Thames Estuary 2100, London, UK. Environment Agency, London, UK. Acknowledgements The authors thank Paul Buckley, Chris What do you think? Kilsby, Andy Payne, John Pinnegar, If you would like to comment on this paper, please email up to 200 words to the editor at [email protected]. Stephen Roast, and Colin Taylor for their If you would like to write a paper of 2000 to 3500 words about your own experience in this or any related area of constructive remarks on earlier versions of civil engineering, the editor will be happy to provide any help or advice you need. this paper. Delivered by ICEVirtualLibrary.com to: 136 ProCeedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – CIVIL ENGINEERINGIP: 128.240.229.67, 2011, 164, No. CE3 issn 0965 089 X On: Mon, 05 Dec 2011 11:36:12