Disney+ to lead the next OTT boom in Western Europe
Digital TV Research forecasts 131.20 million gross SVOD subscriptions in Western Europe by 2024, doubling from 65.19 million by end-2018. About 13 million subscribers will be added in 2019 alone, with a similar number of additions expected in 2020.
SVOD homes will pay for an average of 1.71 SVOD subscriptions by 2024 – up from 1.42 in 2018. About 43.4% of TV households will have at least one SVOD subscription by 2024; up from 26.3% in 2018. Penetration will reach nearly two- thirds of TV households in Norway, but will be under 30% in Italy.
Gross SVOD subscriptions will represent 74.2% of Western European TV households by 2024, double from 37.3% at end-2018. Germany, Italy, France and Spain will all be below the regional average by 2024. Five countries will be above 100% of TV households.
SVOD subscriber forecasts by platform (000) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2018 2019 2020 2024 Others 15,302 18,718 21,696 29,877 Apple TV+ 0 0 939 3,288 Disney+ 0 0 2,347 19,175 Amazon 14,813 17,785 19,878 24,005 Netflix 35,072 42,104 46,946 54,858
Source: Digital TV Research
Netflix will remain the largest pan-regional SVOD platform by some distance, with 54.86 million paying subscribers expected by 2024 – or 42% of the region’s total. This proportion is down from 54% in 2018, but it does mean that the platform will add 20 million subscribers.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Disney+ will make a strong and immediate impact, given its extensive brand recognition and impressive content line-up. We forecast 19.18 million paying subscribers by 2024 – fast approaching Amazon Prime Video.”
Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts
Table of Contents
Published in June 2019, this 190-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report covers movies and TV episodes. The report comes in three parts:
• Outlook: Forecasts for 18 countries in a 43-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2024 for 18 countries by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in an 87-page PDF document.
For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]
Forecasts for the following 118 platforms across 18 countries:
Country SVOD ops SVOD Platforms Austria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Ticket; Maxdome/Joyn; RTL Now Belgium 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Videoland; YeloPlay; Proximus Denmark 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Play Finland 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More France 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; OCS; SFR Play; MyCanal Germany 11 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Ticket; Maxdome/Joyn; Magenta TV App; Horizon; Giga; Zattoo; RTL TV Now Premium Iceland 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Ireland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now Italy 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now; TIMVision; Mediaset Infinity Luxembourg 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Malta 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Netherlands 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Videoland Unlimited; RTL XL; NL Ziet; Ziggo Movies & Series Norway 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Sumo Portugal 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; N Play; Meo TVCine Spain 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Orange Cine Sweden 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More Switzerland 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Premium Plus; Teleclub Play UK 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now TV
SAMPLE: Finland OTT TV & video insight
• OTT TV and video revenues reached $207 million in 2018, and will double to $417 million in 2024. AVOD will climb from $40 million in 2018 and $86 million in 2024.
Main assumptions behind the forecasts • SVOD is well established. • Multiple SVOD subscriptions are becoming more common. • However, some SVOD users do not pay for the service as they receive it free with their premium channel TV subscription. • SVOD penetration is higher than the Western European average but is below the Nordic average. • Pay TV penetration is already high. Source: Digital TV Research
• SVOD revenues are expected to reach $275 million in 2024, double from $135 million in 2018. Gross SVOD subscriptions will increase from 1.23 million in 2018 (49.1% of TV households) to 2.07 million in 2024 (81.8%). SVOD penetration remains below the Nordic average – but ahead of the Western European average.
• Netflix launched in Finland in October 2012 along with the other Nordic countries. Take-up has been high. We estimate 886,000 paying subs at end- 2018; rising to 1,056,000 by 2024.
• Netflix is carried by pay TV operator Elisa (which also offers HBO Nordic). Telia has also signed a distribution deal with Netflix. Netflix’s first local drama was Bordertown.
• Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at €5.99/month, but Amazon offers little original or local content. We forecast 100,000 Amazon subs by 2024.
• HBO launched an SVOD platform for the Nordic countries in late 2012 in partnership with Parsifal International. HBO Nordic offers both linear channel and on-demand options (5,000 titles) for €9.95/month ($11.57). HBO is keen to form partnerships with local operators. It has a deal with Telia. We forecast 145,000 subscribers by 2024.
• Disney+ will start in Western Europe in late 2019. It will be cheaper than Netflix at $7.99/month or $69.99/year. We believe that this will be a successful launch, with 370,000 subscribers by 2024.
• Apple TV+ will launch in 100 countries in fall 2019. The ad-free platform will offer original content, with an annual production budget of $2 billion. Subscription fees will be announced in fall 2019. We forecast 63,000 subscribers by 2024.
• Paramount+ (€7.95/month) began operations in March 2019 in partnership with Telia.
• Offering more than 1,000 movie and TV titles for €9.99/month, Viaplay had 86,000 subscribers by end-2018. We forecast 145,000 paying non-sports subscribers by 2024. Sport costs €29.99/month, with €34.99/month including sports, movies and TV series. Viaplay also provides 18 linear TV channels for an extra €5/month. Viaplay gained carriage on DNA in December 2018.
Viasat Nordic pay TV operations (000) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Denmark 86 84 75 67 61 Finland 36 34 31 28 25 Norway 120 107 91 78 69 Sweden 282 283 259 236 219 Premium satellite TV subs 526 508 456 409 374 Wholesale cable & IPTV subs 456 506 544 529 586 Annualized ARPU (SEK) 5,254 5,161 5,508 5,500 5,625 Viaplay 937 1,108 1,258 Source: Modern Times Group. Country-by-country estimates by Digital TV Research
• Viasat and Viaplay were spun off by Sweden’s Modern Times Group into the Nordic Entertainment Group. Viasat Nordic is losing subscribers across the region, but is gaining ARPU.
• C More Play launched an SVOD platform (€9.95-12.95/month – or €24.95/month for sports and both packages together for €29.95) with Svensk Filmindustri and Finland’s free-to-air broadcaster MTV in January 2017.
• C More extended its relationship with FTA broadcaster MTV in February 2017 to incorporate premium content from MTV Katsomo under the same umbrella. Katsomo reverted to being an ad-supported platform. MTV and C More were owned by Sweden’s Bonnier until being sold to Telia in July 2018.
• C More signed a distribution deal with Starz in October 2015. Pay TV operator DNA, Elisa, Telia and Canal Digital carry C More. We expect 52,000 paying, non-sports C More Play subscribers by 2024.
• Telia had 553,000 cable TV and IPTV (Koti TV) subscribers by end-2018. Telia’s growth is mainly due to fiber network expansion in Helsinki since late 2009. Telia has a distribution deal with C More, HBO and Paramount+.
• In June 2017, TDC announced that Blockbuster would expand from Denmark to Finland, Norway and Sweden. TVOD platform Blockbuster rents (€4.90) and sells (€14.90) 8,000 titles. No monthly subscription service is available.
• Principally a mobile operator (3.99 million subs by end-2018), Elisa had 491,000 cable TV and IPTV subscribers by end-2018. Elisa carries C More) and HBO Nordic. Rentals are also available.
• Strong in Helsinki, pay TV leader Welho was acquired from Sanoma by telco (and second largest pay TV operator) DNA in July 2010. Telenor bought a 54% stake in DNA in April 2019 for €1.5 billion. The company had 2.88 million mobile and 481,000 fixed broadband subs at end-2018.
• The cable operation had 630,000 TV subs at end-2018. Access to Viaplay was added in December 2018 as a standalone platform. DNA carries Netflix, Cirkus (owned by the UK’s ITV) and C More. Titles are also available to rent.
• Telenor-owned Canal Digital had 793,000 premium satellite TV subscribers across the region by end-2018. Canal Digital has lost subscribers across the region since 2008 due to greater competition and the loss of English Premier League soccer rights.
Fixed broadband subscribers by platform (000) Jun 16 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 DSL 647 593 504 405 FTTB 550 605 677 755 FTTH 92 94 106 133 Cable 409 412 411 434 Other 6 8 12 10 Fixed bband subs 1,704 1,712 1,710 1,737 Resid fixed bb subs 1,477 1,479 1,490 1,529 Source: Traficom
• YLE Areena from the public broadcaster is a free archive, with nearly 1 million monthly viewers. Rival FTA broadcaster Nelonen offers Ruutu, which has 884,000 viewers a month. Providing live sports, Ruutu+ costs €9.95/month.
Finland: Gross advertising expenditure (€ million) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Display online 104 122 141 153 174 187 147 92 Search online 100 97 81 86 93 99 100 113 Mobile 24 25 Total online 204 219 222 239 268 286 324 370 Total advertising 1,345 1,393 1,313 1,207 1,180 1,155 1,168 1,217 Source: TNS Gallup
Finland OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Population (000) Total households (000) TV households (000) Fixed broadband households (000) Smartphone subscribers (000) Tablet subscribers (000) TV HH/Total HH Fixed broadband HH/Total HH Smartphone subs/Population Tablet subs/Population
OTT TV fixed bband hh (000) OTT TV & video HH/Fixed bband HH OTT TV & video HH/TV HH OTT TV & video smartph subs (000) OTT TV & video HH/smartph subs OTT TV & video total (000)
Gross SVOD subscriptions (000) SVOD subs/TVHH SVOD subs/Fixed broadband HH SVOD subs/Smartphone users
Net SVOD homes (000) SVOD homes/TVHH SVOD homes/Fixed broadband HH SVOD subscriptions/SVOD homes
TV rental transactions (000) Movie rental transactions (000) Total rental transactions (000) TV download-to-own trans (000) Movie download-to-own trans (000) Total download-to-own trans (000)
Online advertising total (US$ mil.) AVOD (US$ mil.) Online TV rental revenues (US$ mil.) Online movie rental revs (US$ mil.) Online rental revenues (US$ mil.) Download-to-own TV revs (US$ mil.) DTO movie revs (US$ mil.) DTO video revs (US$ mil.) SVOD revenues (US$ mil.) OTT TV & video revenues ($ mil.)
Finland OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2 2021 2022 2023 2024
020
SVOD subscribers by operator (000) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (% Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
Finland OTT TV & video outlook
OTT revenues by source ($m) 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 SVOD 111 135 150 174 275 DTO 16 18 21 23 33 Rental 13 15 15 17 22 AVOD 33 40 46 53 86
SVOD subscribers by operator (000) 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 Others 73 87 102 117 157 C More 17 31 33 37 52 Viaplay 76 84 79 88 124 HBO 77 86 92 103 145 Apple TV+ 0 0 0 20 63 Disney+ 0 0 0 49 370 Amazon 41 53 66 74 100 Netflix 823 886 942 984 1,056
Finland OTT TV & video outlook
SVOD revenues by operator ($m) 300
250
200
150
100
50
0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 Others 6 9 7 13 18 C More 1 3 4 5 7 Viaplay 10 11 11 12 17 HBO 10 11 12 14 20 Apple TV+ 0 0 0 1 7 Disney+ 0 0 0 2 32 Amazon 1 3 4 5 7 Netflix 82 97 110 122 169
Digital TV Research publication schedule 2019 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £1000/€1200/$1300 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts April £500/€600/$650 North America Pay TV Forecasts April £500/€600/$650 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts April £1000/€1200/$1300 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts April £1000/€1200/$1300 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts March £1000/€1200/$1300 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1000/€1200/$1300 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video February £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300
2018 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1800/€2160/$2340 Global SVOD Forecasts September £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950
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