Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts Table of Contents Published in September 2017, this 148-page PDF and excel report combines the relevant countries from two of last year’s reports: Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts and Western Europe SVOD Forecasts in one convenient place. Covering movies and TV episodes, the report covers 18 countries. The report comes in five parts: • Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects; • Major SVOD platforms, including market share for each; • Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2022 by platform, by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes; • Country profiles for 18 territories; • Detailed country forecasts for 18 nations For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] Forecasts for the following 71 platforms across 18 countries: Country SVOD ops SVOD Platforms Austria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky; Maxdome; Myprime; A1 Now; RTL Now Belgium 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Videoland; Yelo; Proximus Denmark 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Play Finland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More France 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Canalplay; OCS; SFR Play Germany 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky; Maxdome; Myprime Iceland 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Ireland 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Now TV Italy 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky; TIMVision; Mediaset Infinity Luxembourg 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Malta 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Netherlands 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Videoland Unlimited; RTL XL; Ziggo Movies & Series Norway 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Sumo Portugal 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; N Play Spain 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO Sweden 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More Switzerland 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Myprime; Teleclub Play UK 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Now TV SAMPLE: Netherlands OTT TV & video briefing • OTT TV and video revenues will double from $445 million in 2016 to $892 million by 2022. AVOD revenues will double from $125 million in 2016 to $258 million in 2022. Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The Dutch SVOD sector is quickly becoming crowded and very lively. • Netflix benefited from the lack of significant competition, but this is changing. • Several FTA broadcasters charge viewers to watch their catch-up services. • Pay TV penetration is very high and won’t grow. Source: Digital TV Research • SVOD revenues overtook AVOD in 2015. SVOD revenues will rocket from $243 million in 2016 to $500 million in 2022. SVOD subscribers will grow from 2.76 million in 2016 (37% of TV households) to 4.65 million in 2022 (62% of TV households). • Netflix launched in the Netherlands in September 2013. Starting prices for new subscribers increased to €9.90/month in August 2015, up from €8.99. We forecast 2.36 million subscribers by 2022 (31.5% of TV households), up from 1.93 million at end-2016. Competition is growing from a low base. • In October 2013, Netflix signed a deal with Disney for exclusive rights in the first pay TV window. The company also acquired local titles such as Tuscan Wedding and Loving Ibiza. • In October 2015, incumbent KPN agreed to carry the Netflix app. Eleven months later Netflix agreed a worldwide deal with Liberty Global, which includes Ziggo in the Netherlands as the first country to follow the UK by launching in December 2016. Vodafone also carries Netflix. • UPC launched its SVOD platform Ziggo Movies and Series (formerly called MyPrime) in April 2014. The platform offers 300 movies, 3,000 TV episodes and 50 linear channels for €6.95-11.95/month (premium UPC subs receive the platform for free). NLConnect estimated that Myprime had 250,000 active users by end-2015. We forecast 418,000 subscribers to Ziggo Movies and Series by 2022. The addition of HBO content is expected to boost the platform. • In September 2012, Liberty Global unveiled its Horizon gateway and streaming service. Horizon was renamed Ziggo Mediabox XL in early 2017. The 500GB capacity boxes have six channels to encourage multi-room use and sharing as well as connected TV, recommendation features and a DVR. Horizon had 952,000 in the Netherlands at end-2016 – up from 700,000 recorded a year earlier. Top paying Ziggo subscribers receive the on-demand platform for free. • Ziggo gained exclusive access to HBO content in September 2016 when HBO pulled the plug on its short-lived Dutch sojourn. The HBO content appears on the Ziggo Movies and Series XL platform along with 50 linear channels. Netflix began access on Horizon settop boxes in December 2016, following Videoland earlier in the month. • In February 2016, Vodafone and Liberty Global (Ziggo and UPC) planned to merge their operations in the Netherlands to compete more effectively against KPN. The merged company was officially created in January 2017. The Ziggo brand was retained. • The JV serves 4 million TV customers, 3.1 million fixed broadband, 2.5 million telephony and 5.2 million mobile subs. Vodafone is the second largest mobile operator and Liberty is the cable leader. Vodafone sold its Thuis fixed business to T-Mobile a month earlier to win regulatory approval. • Ziggo had 3.98 million cable TV subs by end-2016 – down by 300,000 since end-2014. At end-2016, 63% of subs were triple-play and a further 17% double- play (up to 200Mbps). • Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at €5.99/month, but Amazon offers little original or local content. We forecast 590,000 Amazon subs by 2022. The Netherlands appears an ideal market for Amazon Prime, but no launch has yet been announced. • Videoland started its Belgian and Dutch SVOD operations (€8.99/month) in June 2014, although it has been offered by several pay TV platforms for some time (such as KPN, T-Mobile and Ziggo). The company launched via Chromecast in November 2014. • Videoland Unlimited had 207,000 subscribers by end-2015, which we expect will reach 581,000 by 2022. RTL reported that subscriptions had risen by 40% in the six months to June 2017 without giving a figure. In August 2013, RTL acquired 65% of Videoland’s parent The Entertainment Group to upgrade its offer in anticipation of the Netflix launch. RTL took full control in April 2015. • The longer-established ad-supported Videoland service also provides rental and sell-through OTT titles. Its first original series Zwarte Tulp screened in March 2015. • RTL XL launched as an SVOD linear channel and catch-up platform in January 2015, with the premium section charging €3.99/month. Previously, RTL XL had been ad-supported, with rental options (€1-3). We forecast 465,000 RTL XL subscribers by 2022 – more than double the 2016 total. • NLziet provides a catch-up subscription service (€7.95/month – quite expensive for a catch-up platform) for the main FTA broadcasters: NOS, SBS and RTL (including the RTL XL service). The company was reported to have 50,000 subscribers by end-2014. NLziet offers 40,000 episodes from 15 channels. Live streaming trials started in October 2015, with full launch expected in late 2017. • Started in late 2016, KPN Play costs €9.99/month for 25 linear channels and 300 on-demand titles, with prices reduced from €15/month in January 2017. KPN Play is available to non-KPN subscribers at the same price. KPN also carries Netflix and Videoland. • Incumbent telco KPN had 2.33 million TV subs by end-2016; split between DTT service Digitenne (322,000 and falling fast) and IPTV platform Interactieve TV (2.00 million and rising). KPN estimated that its total subs numbers represented 30% of the pay TV market at end-2016. • KPN had 1.72 million triple-play subs at end-2016. KPN passed 80% of households with fiber by end-2016. KPN increased its stake in FTTH operator Reggefiber from 60% to 100% in November 2014. • Started in early 2016, T-Mobile’s Knippr dropped its basic package prices (17 Dutch FTA channels) in January 2017 from €10.99/month to €9.99/month. Other channels are available and are charged on an a la carte basis. Knippr is available to all broadband homes. T-Mobile has 3.8 million subscribers in the Netherlands. • Mobile SVOD platform Mobile2Morrow (M2M, from €5.99/month) started in the Netherlands and Belgium in August 2016. • Tele-2 had about 42,000 IPTV subscribers at end-2016, with 48,000 forecast by 2022. Its fixed broadband subscriber base was 350,000 at end-2016. Tele- 2 supplies 19-49 linear channels, 10-day catch-up, an EPG and 500 VOD movie and TV show titles for €32/month ($34.04), although most subscribers take bundles. Tele-2 is 30% owned by Sweden’s Kinnevik. Netherlands: Fixed broadband connections by platform (000) DSL Fiber Cable Total Dec 2010 3,584 184 2,561 6,329 Dec 2011 3,433 272 2,793 6,498 Dec 2012 3,264 396 2,992 6,652 Dec 2013 3,118 535 3,139 6,792 Dec 2014 2,912 679 3,260 6,851 Dec 2015 2,858 894 3,277 7,029 Dec 2016 2,784 1,057 3,342 7,183 Source: ACM Netherlands OTT TV & video forecasts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Population (000) Total households (000) TV households (000) Fixed broadband households (000) Smartphone subscribers (000) Tablet subscribers (000) TV HH/Total HH Fixed broadband HH/Total HH Smartphone subs/Population Tablet subs/Population OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000) OTT TV & video HH/Fixed broadband HH OTT TV & video HH/TV HH OTT TV & video smartphone