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Western Europe to Add $13 Billion in OTT Revenues

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Western Europe to Add $13 Billion in OTT Revenues Western Europe to add $13 billion in OTT revenues Western European OTT TV episode and movie revenues will reach $23.02 billion in 2023; more than double the $9.84 billion recorded in 2017. Revenues for 18 countries are expected to climb by $2.63 billion in 2018 alone. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The UK is the largest OTT revenue earner in the region by some distance. Its $2.98 billion generated 30% of the 2017 total. The UK’s $6.80 billion in 2023 will represent a similar proportion.” OTT TV & video revenues by source ($ million) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2017 2023 SVOD 4,436 12,472 DTO 1,167 2,160 Rental 928 1,449 AVOD 3,314 6,941 Source: Digital TV Research SVOD became the region’s largest OTT revenue source in 2016 by overtaking AVOD. SVOD’s share of the total will reach 54% by 2023, up from 45% in 2017. SVOD revenues will almost triple by reaching $12.47 billion in 2023 – up from $4.44 billion in 2017. The UK will remain the SVOD revenue leader by some distance – generating as much as second-placed Germany and third-placed France combined by 2023. The Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts report estimates 98.85 million SVOD subscribers by 2023, up from 50.34 million at end-2017. Nearly 15 million subscribers will be added in 2018 alone, with 11 million more expected in 2019. By 2023, 69.3% of Western European TV households will subscribe to an SVOD platform; up from 38.4% at end-2017. [Gross subscriptions. If a household takes two subscriptions then it is counted as two subscribers]. Norway will have the highest proportion at 104.8% by 2023. Germany, Italy, France and Spain will all fall below the regional average by 2023. Netflix will remain the largest SVOD platform by some distance, with 49.75 million paying subscribers in 2023 – or half of the region’s total. This is the same as the 2017 proportion. The 2023 total includes 22 million Amazon Prime Video subscribers. Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts Table of Contents Published in September 2018, this 182-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report covers movies and TV episodes. The report comes in three parts: • Outlook: Forecasts for 18 countries in a 46-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2023 for 18 countries by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in an 80-page PDF document. For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] Forecasts for the following 91 platforms across 18 countries: Country SVOD ops SVOD Platforms Austria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky Ticket; Sky Q; Maxdome; A1 Now; RTL Now Belgium 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Videoland; Yelo; Proximus Denmark 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Play Finland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More France 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; OCS; SFR Play; Molotov Germany 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky Ticket; Sky Q; Maxdome; Horizon; Giga; Zattoo; TV Now Plus Iceland 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video Ireland 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Now TV; Sky Q Italy 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky Now; Sky Q; TIMVision; Mediaset Infinity Luxembourg 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video Malta 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video Netherlands 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Videoland Unlimited; RTL XL; NL Ziet; Ziggo Movies & Series Norway 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Sumo Portugal 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; N Play; Meo TVCine Spain 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Sky; Orange Cine Sweden 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; Telia Play; D Play Switzerland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Premium Plus; Teleclub Play; Sky Show UK 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Now TV; Sky Q; ITV Hub+ Netherlands OTT TV & Video Outlook Revenues by source ($m) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 SVOD 358 496 571 810 DTO 52 58 65 90 Rental 37 40 43 54 AVOD 160 184 210 330 • OTT TV and video revenues will double from $606 million in 2017 to $1,284 million by 2023. • SVOD revenues overtook AVOD in 2015. • SVOD subscribers will grow from 3.89 million in 2017 (52% of TV households) to 6.26 million in 2023 (83%). • The Dutch SVOD sector is crowded and very lively. • KPN Play and T-Mobile’s Knippr closed recently. • HBO closed quite soon after launch. Ziggo now has exclusive rights to HBO content. • RTL XL and Videoland will merge. • Netflix has benefited from the lack of significant competition. Netflix will provide more than half the SVOD subscribers by 2023. • Amazon Prime started in November 2017. Netherlands SVOD Outlook Subscribers by operator (000) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 Others 106 116 133 206 Ziggo Movies 373 440 450 476 NL Ziet 90 245 265 313 RTL XL 340 416 0 0 Videoland 400 538 901 1,064 Amazon 287 523 710 1,018 Netflix 2,297 2,613 2,840 3,181 Revenues by operator ($m) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 Others 7 10 9 21 Ziggo Movies 56 68 74 79 NL Ziet 5 19 28 34 RTL XL 15 21 0 0 Videoland 38 59 90 132 Amazon 16 34 52 83 Netflix 220 286 317 461 Netherlands OTT TV & video forecasts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Population (000) Total households (000) TV households (000) Fixed broadband households (000) Smartphone subscribers (000) Tablet subscribers (000) TV HH/Total HH Fixed broadband HH/Total HH Smartphone subs/Population Tablet subs/Population OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000) OTT TV & video HH/Fixed broadband HH OTT TV & video HH/TV HH OTT TV & video smartphone subs (000) OTT TV & video HH/smartphone subs OTT TV & video total (000) SVOD subscribers (000) SVOD/TVHH % SVOD/Fixed broadband % SVOD/Smartphone % TV rental transactions (000) Movie rental transactions (000) Total rental transactions (000) TV download-to-own transactions (000) Movie download-to-own transactions (000) Total download-to-own transactions (000) Online advertising total (US$ mil.) Netherlands OTT TV & video forecasts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 AVOD (US$ mil.) Online TV rental revs (US$ mil.) Online movie rental revs ($ mil.) Online rental revs (US$ mil.) DTO TV revenues (US$ mil.) DTO movie revenues (US$ mil.) DTO video revenues (US$ mil.) SVOD revenues (US$ mil.) OTT TV & video revs (US$ mil.) SVOD subscribers by operator (000) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others Netherlands OTT TV & video insight • OTT TV and video revenues will double from $606 million in 2017 to $1,284 million by 2023. AVOD revenues will double from $160 million in 2017 to $330 million in 2023. Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The Dutch SVOD sector is quickly becoming crowded and very lively. • Two high profile platform, KPN Play and T-Mobile’s Knippr, closed recently. HBO closed quite soon after launch. • RTL XL and Videoland will merge. • Netflix benefited from the lack of significant competition. • Amazon Prime started in November 2017. • Several FTA broadcasters charge viewers to watch their catch-up services. • Pay TV penetration is very high and won’t grow. Source: Digital TV Research • SVOD revenues overtook AVOD in 2015. SVOD revenues will rocket from $358 million in 2017 to $810 million in 2023. SVOD subscribers will grow from 3.89 million in 2017 (52% of TV households) to 6.26 million in 2023 (83%). • Netflix launched in the Netherlands in September 2013. We forecast 3.18 million subscribers by 2023, up from 2.23 million at end-2017. Prices increased in October 2017 to €7.99-13.99/month. • In October 2015, incumbent KPN agreed to carry the Netflix app. Eleven months later Netflix agreed a worldwide deal with Liberty Global, which includes Ziggo in the Netherlands as the first country to follow the UK by launching in late 2016. Vodafone also carries Netflix. • In October 2013, Netflix signed a deal with Disney for exclusive rights in the first pay TV window. The company also acquired local titles Tuscan Wedding and Loving Ibiza. Original content includes Undercover. • Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Amazon Prime (€49/year or €5.99/month) started in Belgium and the Netherlands in November 2017. Based on trends from other countries, we expect 70% of Amazon Prime subs to watch videos. For these subs, we have dedicated 50% of their fee to Amazon Prime Video. We forecast 1.02 million Amazon Prime Video subs by 2023. • The Netherlands is likely to be a target market for Disney’s international platform after it launches in 2019. HBO started a standalone platform but folded into Ziggo’s service.
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