Western Europe to add $13 billion in OTT revenues
Western European OTT TV episode and movie revenues will reach $23.02 billion in 2023; more than double the $9.84 billion recorded in 2017. Revenues for 18 countries are expected to climb by $2.63 billion in 2018 alone.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The UK is the largest OTT revenue earner in the region by some distance. Its $2.98 billion generated 30% of the 2017 total. The UK’s $6.80 billion in 2023 will represent a similar proportion.”
OTT TV & video revenues by source ($ million)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2017 2023 SVOD 4,436 12,472 DTO 1,167 2,160 Rental 928 1,449 AVOD 3,314 6,941
Source: Digital TV Research
SVOD became the region’s largest OTT revenue source in 2016 by overtaking AVOD. SVOD’s share of the total will reach 54% by 2023, up from 45% in 2017.
SVOD revenues will almost triple by reaching $12.47 billion in 2023 – up from $4.44 billion in 2017. The UK will remain the SVOD revenue leader by some distance – generating as much as second-placed Germany and third-placed France combined by 2023.
The Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts report estimates 98.85 million SVOD subscribers by 2023, up from 50.34 million at end-2017. Nearly 15 million subscribers will be added in 2018 alone, with 11 million more expected in 2019.
By 2023, 69.3% of Western European TV households will subscribe to an SVOD platform; up from 38.4% at end-2017. [Gross subscriptions. If a household takes two subscriptions then it is counted as two subscribers]. Norway will have the highest proportion at 104.8% by 2023. Germany, Italy, France and Spain will all fall below the regional average by 2023.
Netflix will remain the largest SVOD platform by some distance, with 49.75 million paying subscribers in 2023 – or half of the region’s total. This is the same as the 2017 proportion. The 2023 total includes 22 million Amazon Prime Video subscribers.
Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts
Table of Contents
Published in September 2018, this 182-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report covers movies and TV episodes. The report comes in three parts:
• Outlook: Forecasts for 18 countries in a 46-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2023 for 18 countries by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in an 80-page PDF document.
For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]
Forecasts for the following 91 platforms across 18 countries:
Country SVOD ops SVOD Platforms Austria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky Ticket; Sky Q; Maxdome; A1 Now; RTL Now Belgium 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Videoland; Yelo; Proximus Denmark 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Play Finland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More France 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; OCS; SFR Play; Molotov Germany 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky Ticket; Sky Q; Maxdome; Horizon; Giga; Zattoo; TV Now Plus Iceland 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video Ireland 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Now TV; Sky Q Italy 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Sky Now; Sky Q; TIMVision; Mediaset Infinity Luxembourg 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video Malta 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video Netherlands 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Videoland Unlimited; RTL XL; NL Ziet; Ziggo Movies & Series Norway 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Sumo Portugal 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; N Play; Meo TVCine Spain 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Sky; Orange Cine Sweden 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; HBO; Viaplay; C More; Telia Play; D Play Switzerland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Premium Plus; Teleclub Play; Sky Show UK 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Now TV; Sky Q; ITV Hub+
Netherlands OTT TV & Video Outlook
Revenues by source ($m) 1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0 2017 2018 2019 2023 SVOD 358 496 571 810 DTO 52 58 65 90 Rental 37 40 43 54 AVOD 160 184 210 330
• OTT TV and video revenues will double from $606 million in 2017 to $1,284 million by 2023.
• SVOD revenues overtook AVOD in 2015.
• SVOD subscribers will grow from 3.89 million in 2017 (52% of TV households) to 6.26 million in 2023 (83%).
• The Dutch SVOD sector is crowded and very lively.
• KPN Play and T-Mobile’s Knippr closed recently.
• HBO closed quite soon after launch. Ziggo now has exclusive rights to HBO content.
• RTL XL and Videoland will merge.
• Netflix has benefited from the lack of significant competition. Netflix will provide more than half the SVOD subscribers by 2023.
• Amazon Prime started in November 2017.
Netherlands SVOD Outlook
Subscribers by operator (000) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 Others 106 116 133 206 Ziggo Movies 373 440 450 476 NL Ziet 90 245 265 313 RTL XL 340 416 0 0 Videoland 400 538 901 1,064 Amazon 287 523 710 1,018 Netflix 2,297 2,613 2,840 3,181
Revenues by operator ($m) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2017 2018 2019 2023 Others 7 10 9 21 Ziggo Movies 56 68 74 79 NL Ziet 5 19 28 34 RTL XL 15 21 0 0 Videoland 38 59 90 132 Amazon 16 34 52 83 Netflix 220 286 317 461
Netherlands OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Population (000) Total households (000) TV households (000) Fixed broadband households (000) Smartphone subscribers (000) Tablet subscribers (000)
TV HH/Total HH Fixed broadband HH/Total HH Smartphone subs/Population Tablet subs/Population
OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000) OTT TV & video HH/Fixed broadband HH OTT TV & video HH/TV HH
OTT TV & video smartphone subs (000) OTT TV & video HH/smartphone subs
OTT TV & video total (000)
SVOD subscribers (000) SVOD/TVHH % SVOD/Fixed broadband % SVOD/Smartphone %
TV rental transactions (000) Movie rental transactions (000) Total rental transactions (000) TV download-to-own transactions (000) Movie download-to-own transactions (000) Total download-to-own transactions (000)
Online advertising total (US$ mil.)
Netherlands OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
AVOD (US$ mil.) Online TV rental revs (US$ mil.) Online movie rental revs ($ mil.) Online rental revs (US$ mil.) DTO TV revenues (US$ mil.) DTO movie revenues (US$ mil.) DTO video revenues (US$ mil.) SVOD revenues (US$ mil.) OTT TV & video revs (US$ mil.)
SVOD subscribers by operator (000) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others
SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Videoland Unlimited RTL XL NL Ziet Ziggo Movies & Series Others
Netherlands OTT TV & video insight
• OTT TV and video revenues will double from $606 million in 2017 to $1,284 million by 2023. AVOD revenues will double from $160 million in 2017 to $330 million in 2023.
Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The Dutch SVOD sector is quickly becoming crowded and very lively. • Two high profile platform, KPN Play and T-Mobile’s Knippr, closed recently. HBO closed quite soon after launch. • RTL XL and Videoland will merge. • Netflix benefited from the lack of significant competition. • Amazon Prime started in November 2017. • Several FTA broadcasters charge viewers to watch their catch-up services. • Pay TV penetration is very high and won’t grow. Source: Digital TV Research
• SVOD revenues overtook AVOD in 2015. SVOD revenues will rocket from $358 million in 2017 to $810 million in 2023. SVOD subscribers will grow from 3.89 million in 2017 (52% of TV households) to 6.26 million in 2023 (83%).
• Netflix launched in the Netherlands in September 2013. We forecast 3.18 million subscribers by 2023, up from 2.23 million at end-2017. Prices increased in October 2017 to €7.99-13.99/month.
• In October 2015, incumbent KPN agreed to carry the Netflix app. Eleven months later Netflix agreed a worldwide deal with Liberty Global, which includes Ziggo in the Netherlands as the first country to follow the UK by launching in late 2016. Vodafone also carries Netflix.
• In October 2013, Netflix signed a deal with Disney for exclusive rights in the first pay TV window. The company also acquired local titles Tuscan Wedding and Loving Ibiza. Original content includes Undercover.
• Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Amazon Prime (€49/year or €5.99/month) started in Belgium and the Netherlands in November 2017. Based on trends from other countries, we expect 70% of Amazon Prime subs to watch videos. For these subs, we have dedicated 50% of their fee to Amazon Prime Video. We forecast 1.02 million Amazon Prime Video subs by 2023.
• The Netherlands is likely to be a target market for Disney’s international platform after it launches in 2019. HBO started a standalone platform but folded into Ziggo’s service.
• We expect that RTL XL Premium and Videoland will merge in early 2019. Both are already offered together for €8.99/month. We forecast 1.06 million merged subscribers by 2023.
• Videoland started its Belgian and Dutch SVOD operations (€8.99/month) in June 2014, although it has been offered by several pay TV platforms for some time (such as KPN, T-Mobile and Ziggo). The company launched via Chromecast in November 2014.
• Videoland Unlimited had 207,000 subscribers by end-2015. RTL reported that subscriptions had risen by 78% in 2017 without giving a figure. In August 2013, RTL acquired 65% of Videoland’s parent The Entertainment Group. RTL took full control in April 2015.
• The longer-established ad-supported Videoland service also provides rental and sell-through OTT titles. Its first original series Zwarte Tulp screened in March 2015. Other original content includes Nieuwe Buren.
• RTL XL Premium launched as an SVOD linear channel and catch-up platform in January 2015 for €3.99/month. RTL XL was reported to have 340,000 subscribers by late 2017.
• NLziet provides a catch-up subscription service (€7.95/month – quite expensive for a catch-up platform) for the main FTA broadcasters (NPO, SBS and RTL XL). Live streaming trials started in October 2015, with full launch of 12 channels in October 2017. NLziet also offers 10,000 hours of on-demand content. The company was reported to have 90,000 subscribers by late 2017. We forecast 313,000 subscribers by 2023.
• Sony launched its Film1 as an SVOD platform in June 2018, with 300 movies. The platform costs €7.99/month – less than the €14.95/month charged for the pay TV channel.
• UPC launched its SVOD platform Ziggo Movies and Series (formerly called MyPrime) in April 2014. The platform offers 300 movies, 3,000 TV episodes and 50 linear channels for €11.95/month (premium subs receive the platform for free). We forecast 476,000 subscribers to Ziggo Movies and Series by 2023. Top paying Ziggo subscribers receive the on-demand platform for free.
• Netflix began access on Horizon settop boxes in December 2016, following Videoland earlier in the month. Ziggo gained exclusive access to HBO content in September 2016 when HBO pulled the plug on its short-lived Dutch sojourn. The HBO content appears on the Ziggo Movies and Series XL platform.
• In September 2012, Liberty Global unveiled its Horizon gateway and streaming service. Horizon was renamed Ziggo Mediabox XL in early 2017. The 500GB capacity boxes have six channels to encourage multi-room use and sharing as well as connected TV, recommendation features and a DVR. Ziggo had 3.92 million cable TV subs by end-2017 – down by 372,000 since end-2014.
• In February 2016, Vodafone and Liberty Global (Ziggo and UPC) planned to merge their operations in the Netherlands to compete more effectively against KPN. The merged company was officially created in January 2017. The Ziggo brand was retained.
• Started in late 2016, Play van KPN cost €9.99/month for 25 linear channels and 300 on-demand titles, with prices reduced from €15/month in January 2017. Play van KPN was available to non-KPN subscribers. However, the platform was closed in July 2018 due to lack of demand. KPN also carries Netflix and Videoland.
• Incumbent telco KPN had 2.29 million TV subs by end-2017; split between DTT service Digitenne (322,000 - falling until a slight revival in 2017) and IPTV platform Interactieve TV (1.93 million – down in 2017). KPN had 1.67 million triple-play subs at end-2017. By end-2017, KPN had 2.85 million fixed broadband and 5.23 million mobile subs.
• Started in June 2016, T-Mobile’s Knippr closed two years later. Knippr offered access to 11 of the most popular FTA channels. T
• Tele2 had about 81,000 IPTV subscribers at end-2016. Its fixed broadband subscriber base was 329,000 at end-2017; down from 350,000 a year earlier – as well as 1.21 million mobile subs.
• Tele2 was 30% owned by Sweden’s Kinnevik until T-Mobile acquired Tele2’s Dutch assets in December 2017. In the Netherlands, T-Mobile had 3.88 million mobile and 188,000 fixed broadband subscribers by September 2017 – but not TV ones.
Netherlands: Fixed broadband connections by platform (000) DSL Fiber Cable Total Dec 2010 3,584 184 2,561 6,329 Dec 2011 3,433 272 2,793 6,498 Dec 2012 3,264 396 2,992 6,652 Dec 2013 3,118 535 3,139 6,792 Dec 2014 2,912 679 3,260 6,851 Dec 2015 2,858 894 3,277 7,029 Dec 2016 2,784 1,051 3,342 7,177 Dec 2017 2,654 1,161 3,400 7,215 Source: ACM
Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2018 Title Publication Price 1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560 2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV January £1200/€1440/$1560 Forecasts 3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1440/$1560 4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 5 North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650 6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950 11 Pay TV Subscriber Prospects May £800/€960/$1040 12 Pay TV Revenue Prospects May £800/€960/$1040 13 vMVPD and D2C TV Forecasts May £900/€1,080/$1170 14 Netflix Forecasts May £700/€840/$910 15 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts June 16 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video July £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts 17 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1000/€1200/$1300 18 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300 19 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £500/€600/$650 20 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300 21 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300 22 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340 23 Global SVOD Forecasts October £1500/€1800/$1950 24 TV Forecasts October £1500/€1800/$1950 25 OTT TV & Video Outlook by Country November £1000/€1200/$1300 26 TV Databook November £1000/€1200/$1300 27 SVOD Outlook by Country November £1000/€1200/$1300
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