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Politics Is Local: Examining Afghanistan's Central Government's Role in State-Building at the Provincal Level

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Politics Is Local: Examining Afghanistan's Central Government's Role in State-Building at the Provincal Level ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL: EXAMINING AFGHANISTAN’S CENTRAL GOVERNMENT’S ROLE IN STATE-BUILDING AT THE PROVINCIAL LEVEL Patrick Grant A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate College of Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION May 2012 Committee: Neil Englehart, Advisor Marc Simon Neal Jesse ii ABSTRACT Neil Englehart, Advisor State-building literature in relation to Afghanistan has tended to focus on how to combat the insurgency in order to promote internal state stability. However, there has been little analysis of the role the Afghan central government appointees in state-building at the provincial level. This thesis will help correct for the deficiency by focusing on the central government’s appointment of provincial governors and its impact on insurgent penetration in the provinces. With many governors using their positions to create elaborate patronage networks as well as using their position to eliminate their opponents, these tactics can create a breeding ground of domestic insurgency by recruiting from disaffected tribes/ethnicities. Using original data on the governors of each of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, from 2002 to present day, as well as data on insurgent attacks this thesis will test the hypothesis that there is a relationship between the central government’s appointment of provincial governors and the number of insurgent attacks in each of the providences. To conduct this empirical analysis I will use bivariate statistical tests to help determine if there is any potential relationship between the appointment of provincial governors and insurgent attacks. iii This work is dedicated to my parents, John and Cynthia Grant, for their steadfast and loyal support. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would first like to take the opportunity to thank my parents, John and Cynthia Grant, for their constant support while I journeyed through both undergraduate and graduate school. Furthermore, I thank both my brothers, Justin and Jordan Grant, for their continued support and words of encouragement as I went through college. I will also like to express my appreciation to my advisor, Dr. Neil Englehart, as well as to Dr. Marc Simon and Dr. Neal Jesse for their guidance and advice as I undertook this thesis; without their support I would not be nearly the scholar I am today and this thesis would not have been possible without their assistance. Additionally, I wish to express my thanks to Dr. Jeff Peake for his constant advice and tutelage in both my undergraduate and graduate career. I would like to say a special thanks to my MPA colleagues for providing me with mental support and the numerous sanity checks throughout my graduate career. Finally, I would like to thank the former political science secretary, Becky Paskvan, for her guidance and willingness to help me solve any administrative issue that might have arisen during my time at Bowling Green State University. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER I. THE HISTORY AND CULTURE IN AFHGHANISTAN ........................... 7 THE CULTURE OF POWER AND GOVERNANCE IN AFGHANISTAN .................................................................................................. 8 FORMATION OF THE AFGHAN STATE AND ITS DEVELOPMENT, 1747-1929 ............................................................................ 13 RISE OF THE MUSAHIBAN DYNASTY, 1929-1978 ........................................... 21 DEVELOPMENT OF THE RENTIER STATE AND THE CIRCUMSTANCES THAT LEAD TO THE SOVIET INVASION ........................ 27 THE SOVIET INVASION AND THE FORMATION OF THE MUJAHEDEEN, 1979-1989 ...................................................................... 36 THE FALL OF NAJIBULLAH, THE 1992 CIVIL WAR, AND THE RISE OF THE TALIBAN ....................................................................... 45 THE TALIBAN GOVERNMENT ............................................................................ 53 THE FALL AND RESURGENCE OF THE TALIBAN AND THE NEW AFHGAN GOVERNMENT ......................................................... 57 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................... 73 CHAPTER II. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................. 75 LIBERAL THEORTY AND STATE-BUILDING, CREATING AND MAINTAINING DEMOCRACY .................................................................... 76 vi ESSENTIALS OF GOOD GOVERNANCE AND WHAT IT TAKES TO BECOME A STRONG STATE ........................................................... 84 COUNTERINSURGENCY: IN THEORY AND IN PRACTICE IN AFGHANISTAN ........................................................................ 91 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................... 95 CHAPTER III. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 97 GOVERNMENT APPOINTMENT PROCESS ........................................................ 99 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................. 100 INDPENDENT VARIABLES ................................................................................... 101 DEPENDENT VARIABLES..................................................................................... 103 STUDY LIMITATIONS .......................................................................................... 103 HYPOTHESES .................................................................................................... 105 CHAPTER IV. RESULTS .................................................................................................... 119 DESCRPTIVE STATISTICS .................................................................................... 119 BIVARIATE ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 124 CASE STUDIES IN GOVERNANCE, HERAT AND KANDAHAR/NANGARHAR .......................................................... 141 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION ....................................................................... 145 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................. 173 APPENDIX A: LIST OF AFGHAN GOVERNORS ........................................................... 185 vii LIST OF FIGURES/TABLES Table Page Codebook of Variables Used in This Study ............................................................... 113 Take Away Table: Summation of the Tested Hypotheses ......................................... 141 1 Mean Number of Attacks by Governor Political Attribute Results ........................... 150 2 Mean Number of Attacks Governor Biographical Attribute Results......................... 151 3 Linear Regression of Gubernatorial Attributes .......................................................... 152 Figures Page 1 Total Number of Attacks by Month/Year .................................................................. 153 2 Total Number of Armed Assaults, Bombings, and Total Number of Attacks ........... 154 3 Number of Total Attacks by Province ....................................................................... 155 4 Total Number of Attacks on Civilians By Province .................................................. 156 5 Total Number of Civilian Deaths ............................................................................... 157 6 Attacks on Civilians; Number of Armed Assaults, Bombings, and Total Number of Attacks ........................................................................................... 158 7 Attacks on Police; Number of Armed Assaults, Bombings, and Total Number of Attacks ........................................................................................... 159 8 Attacks on Government Officials; Number of Armed Assaults, Assassinations, and Total Number of Attacks ........................................................................................... 160 9 Recorded Number of Attacks by Type ...................................................................... 161 10 Average Number of Attacks, Ties to Karzai .............................................................. 162 11 Average Number of Attacks, Ties to Northern Alliance ........................................... 163 viii 12 Number of Governors with Ties to Karzai and N. Alliance ...................................... 164 13 Total Number of Attacks, Balkh Province ................................................................. 165 14 Total Number of Attacks, Ghazni Province ............................................................... 166 15 Total Number of Attacks, Helmand Province............................................................ 167 16 Total Number of Attacks, Herat Province ................................................................. 168 17 Total Number of Attacks, Kabul Province ................................................................ 169 18 Total Number of Attacks, Kandahar Province ........................................................... 170 19 Total Number of Attacks, Khost Province ................................................................. 171 20 Total Number of Attacks, Nangarhar Province ......................................................... 172 1 INTRODUCTION Throughout the country’s history,
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