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Estonia Political Briefing: the 2021 Presidential Elections: a Routine Event Or an Indicator of Change? E-MAP Foundation MTÜ

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Estonia Political Briefing: the 2021 Presidential Elections: a Routine Event Or an Indicator of Change? E-MAP Foundation MTÜ ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 41, No. 1 (EE) June 2021 Estonia political briefing: The 2021 presidential elections: a routine event or an indicator of change? E-MAP Foundation MTÜ 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: CHen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 The 2021 presidential elections: a routine event or an indicator of change? So, the date is known now. Having acted in strict accordance with the country’s Constitution and some other normative documents, Jüri Ratas, the Speaker of the Riigikogu, decided to convene an extraordinary parliamentary session to be taking place on 30 August 2021, starting at 13:001. Since the electoral procedure has already been extensively discussed in a couple of previous briefs (in general, a two-thirds of the Riigikogu’s membership are required to be in support of the country’s next President), thus it is worth making a few points on prospective candidatures. Just about time. In October 2016, Kersti Kaljulaid, the country’s current Head of State, was nominated and then elected to her high-profile role after a number of unsuccessful rounds of voting in the Riigikogu and within the Electoral College. Her candidature represented a surprising compromise made by Estonia’s political elites when no political ‘heavyweights’ was capable to collect the required votes. Often miracles occur, and Kersti Kaljulaid, a true neophyte back then, managed to rise into international prominence, and her reputation helped her country to gain a non-permanent seat in the UN Security Council (for the first time ever) and a short-listed nomination for the position of the OECD’s Secretary-General for herself. Speculatively speaking, not many had been predicting the eventual success of Mathias Cormann to take the ‘cake’, when Kersti Kaljulaid was still a contender (having had to step aside only after it became known that the OECD’s appointment would need to be made before her presidential term in Estonia would be over). Within Estonia, Kaljulaid, gradually, made herself involved into a broader scope of activity than it was expected from a President with a largely ceremonial job description. In her understanding, the President’s task was and is “to protect the constitutional order of Estonia”, therefore, as she noted, “[e]very president must adapt to the surrounding circumstances and always do what is best for Estonia”2. From April 2019 (after Jüri Ratas extravagantly formed his second cabinet), a range of those circumstances put Kaljulaid right into the epicentre of the 1 ‘Speaker calls Riigikogu presidential election session for August 30’ in ERR, 14 June 2021. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1608245853/speaker-calls-riigikogu-presidential-election-session-for-august-30]. 2 Kersti Kaljulaid as cited in ‘President: President's role is to be a liaison’, ERR, 12 June 2021. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1608244584/president-president-s-role-is-to-be-a-liaison]. 1 country’s internal politics when she started being seen by some as an oppositional politician, if not the informal leader of Estonia’s then very weak opposition. In one of her latest interviews, Kaljulaid did not want to elaborate “on whether and how much the [P]resident could or should be involved in party politics”, but she underlined that it is never easy to predict or know “in advance how important the role of the defender of the Constitution will become for the next [P]resident”3. These days, it is still unclear whether or not Kersti Kaljulaid is planning to stand for her re-election – objectively, in the Riigikogu, she has the numbers of the current Prime Minister’s Reform Party, some supporters among the oppositional ‘social democrats’ and Pro Patria. However, not many experts will be counting on the Centre Party (the other part of the ruling coalition) to give any votes for Kersti Kaljulaid’s re-appointment as President. Finally, the remaining parliamentary as well as oppositional party, the EKRE, is likely to stay antagonistic towards Kaljulaid. Therefore, the current President does not have the numbers to be re-elected in the Riigikogu. Proceeding to the Electoral College maybe an option though, if the parliamentary voting rounds are to be exhausted. If not Kersti Kaljulaid, who else then? Luckily for Estonia, there is no once-and-forever candidate for any governance-associated position, therefore a search for a reputable personality who can get, at least, 68 members of the Riigikogu voting for her/him is very much on. There is also a requirement that, in order to be registered, a presidential candidate needs 21 votes out of the total number of 101. So far, in a clear manner, only Henn Põlluaas (former Speaker of the Riigikogu, representing EKRE) and Tarmo Soomere (President of the Estonian Academy of Sciences) declared themselves as prospective candidates for the presidential contest, while Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, whose party has 34 parliamentary votes, expressed her hopes to get the business done in a genuine democratic way, without having to move into an elites’ agreement saga once again: We are trying to avoid the mistakes that were made last time. […] We are trying to find a candidate who could get the required support in the Riigikogu or the [E]lectoral [C]ollege.4 3 ‘President: President's role is to be a liaison’. 4 Kaja Kallas as cited in ‘Prime minister: President candidate with broad Riigikogu support desirable’, ERR, 27 May 2021. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1608226870/prime-minister-president-candidate-with-broad- riigikogu-support-desirable]. 2 In the meantime, the caucuses of the parliamentary parties have a highly appropriate moment to get together and start, unofficially and preliminary though, discussing a range of suitable presidential candidates and ‘crunching’ the numbers. Characteristically for 2021, the Electoral College, if it is to be engaged, will consists of 208 members (including 101 members of the Riigikogu)5. In the context of the preliminary discussions, Jaak Aab (Centre), the country’s Minister of Public Administration, noted that “the parliamentary parties want to find a suitable presidential candidate in the Riigikogu”6. Kristen Michal (Reform) clarified the point that “it is still too soon to speak about candidates” and that “the best discussions and procedural actions take place not in front of cameras, but rather eye to eye”7. From the side of the ‘social democrats’, Eiki Nestor, former Speaker of the Riigikogu as well as presidential candidate in the past, argued that “the [P]arliament must first agree on principles on how to find a common candidate and not to limit the search to just one name”8. There is no reasonable doubt, however, is that the main intriguing point of the upcoming campaign is associated with the current Speaker of the Riigikogu and former Prime Minister, Jüri Ratas. Known for a nearly absolute level of vagueness in answering any questions, Ratas has enhanced this political quality to perfection when it comes to making this decision of his lifetime. Back in December 2020, when the then Prime Minister Jüri Ratas was ruling out a possibility of his candidature to be in the next presidential context – “It is absolutely not on my mind. I have not even thought about it. Fortune tellers can think about it. I am trying to do real things”9 – some experts on Estonian politics understood this message precisely in the opposite way. They were very correct, and January 2021 (“My response is honest. I am not thinking about it now and will not do so tomorrow”) and then February 2021 (“The truth is that [the] Centre [Party] wants to have a say in picking a [P]resident, we have said that the [P]resident should be someone who builds bridges, connects Estonia. […] My response to you is that Centre will decide these things in May”10) added even more rhetorical brilliance to what is now suspected by almost everyone – Jüri Ratas, most probably, wants to run for the President. 5 ‘President of the Republic of Estonia Elections’ in Valimised. Available from [https://www.valimised.ee/en/estonian-elections-nutshell/president-republic-estonia-elections]. 6 Jaak Aab as cited in ‘Riigikogu party heads have begun discussing presidential candidate’, ERR, 31 May 2021. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1608230061/riigikogu-party-heads-have-begun-discussing-presidential- candidate]. 7 Kristen Michal as cited in ‘Riigikogu party heads have begun discussing presidential candidate’. 8 Eiki Nestor as cited in ‘Riigikogu party heads have begun discussing presidential candidate’. 9 Jüri Ratas as cited in Toomas Sildam, ‘Sildam: Jüri Ratas has two weeks to make decision on presidential elections’ in ERR, 17 May 2021. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1608215560/sildam-juri-ratas-has-two- weeks-to-make-decision-on-presidential-elections]. 10 Ratas as cited in Sildam. 3 What this can potentially bring to Estonia’s internal politics makes the situation not so predictable. As argued by Toomas Sildam, one of the country’s top-reporters on political issues, if Jüri Ratas eventually makes up his mind in terms of publicly announcing what is really becoming le secret de Polichinelle, then the Reform Party “has to decide if they will support him or instead find an alternative candidate, which would bring the current relationship [within the governmental coalition to a] great uncertainty”11. For the ‘reformists’ saying ‘no’ to Jüri Ratas can (not necessarily will) mean the end of the first cabinet of Kaja Kallas and a political crisis. Saying ‘yes’ to him will still not get the votes to the required number, as the other three parties will need to convinced that Jüri Ratas is the best candidate (not an easy task it will be).
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