Conference Programme 6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs) Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty 1–5 July 2012 Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig, Germany 1 Please fill in: This iEMSs 2012 booklet belongs to If found please return to conference desk and ask for chocolate. 2 Table of Contents Greetings of the organizers .............................................................................................................................................. 5 iEMSs 2012 committees .................................................................................................................................................... 9 Special thanks .................................................................................................................................................................... 10 General information ......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Eco-friendly meeting ....................................................................................................................................................... 16 Support of young researchers ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Events .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Culture in Leipzig .............................................................................................................................................................. 23 Keynotes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 27 Short description of sessions and workshops ......................................................................................................... 41 Sessions .......................................................................................................................................................... 43 Workshops ..................................................................................................................................................... 77 The review process: Instead of an eulogy ................................................................................................................. 95 Conference programme – list of presentations ...................................................................................................... 97 Monday • July 2 ............................................................................................................................................. 99 Tuesday • July 3 .......................................................................................................................................... 129 Wednesday • July 4 ................................................................................................................................... 159 Thursday • July 5 ........................................................................................................................................ 185 List of presenters ............................................................................................................................................................. 205 Conference evaluation form ....................................................................................................................................... 213 Sudoku ............................................................................................................................................................................... 214 3 4 Greetings Alexey Voinov iEMSs President It is my pleasure to welcome you to the sixth bi-annual conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Soci- ety. Over the past 12 years the society has been steadily growing in numbers and in scope. But as scholars who know about sustain- ability and care for the environment, we are well aware that it’s not the growth that we are after. It’s the development, the quality that matters most. In this regards we are doing even better. Several threads have emerged as ongoing collaborative topics, which have already established themselves as focal areas of the So- ciety and progress from one meeting to another (such as Data Min- ing, Fluid Dynamics, Participatory Modeling, Integrated Modeling, Decision Support Systems, etc.). Important position papers come out of this collaboration that continues between the meetings. Our Journal is rated high both as a ‘modeling’ and as an ‘environmental’ publication. In 2010 the Student and Young Researchers Network started as a bottom-up initiative of our students and do hope that this effort will gain further momentum during this meeting. The Society is a complex adaptive system. As with other such systems, it is not only the elements, the participants that play a role, but, even more importantly, it is the interactions between them. The Society was launched when electronic communications via the Internet have started to become the new standard, the new way of life. We have very much benefited from the Web, maintaining a lively web site and handling most of our business electronically. Today there are even more advanced social media tools that we are yet to explore and incorporate into our Society. But we also know that no virtual communication, no “second life” can replace real human touch, a handshake, an eye contact. Every two years we have a chance to catch up with this, to put faces to e-mail addresses, to hug our friends, and to share a drink and a laugh clarifying all remaining issues. For the last six years at our meetings we pay special attention to promoting interaction leaving ample time for people to discuss and work together. We are organizing workshops in addition to usual ses- sion. The idea behind these workshops is to offer a platform for brainstorming on a particular topic. These workshops lead to the ongoing collaboration, which we try to promote. We do hope that you will find some interesting groups to join now and perhaps initiate new ones next time. We are very grateful to Ralf Seppelt, Dagmar Bankamp, Susanne Lange and many others who are giving us this wonderful opportunity of real human interaction. For the last several months many people from the local organizing committee have been working very hard to create a perfect working environment and to make your iEMSs experience in Leipzig pleasant and fruitful. Never feel shy to say thank you to these people when you meet them. Let’s make the most of this meeting, and gain momentum that will keep us going for the next two years. Of course, after all, it is the volunteer efforts that keep the Society going. As an outgoing presi- dent I am very grateful for all the support and activity of all our members, especially our Board and our Office. It’s this work and these efforts that make our Society happen. Alexey Voinov iEMSs president 5 Greetings UFZ Director Georg Teutsch As an international competence centre for the environmental sci- ences, the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in- vestigates the complex interactions between mankind and nature under the influence of global change. In close cooperation with de- cision makers and stakeholders, scientists at the UFZ develop system solutions to improve the management of complex environmental systems and to tackle environmental issues. We – the 1000 people at UFZ in Leipzig, Halle and Magdeburg – work on the management of water resources, the impact of land use change on human landscapes and biodiversity, the impacts of chemicals in the environment and on human health as well as adap- tion strategies for climate change. This modern environmental research is almost unthinkable without the aid of comprehensive com- puter models. With our activities on modelling and visualization we aim to improve process under- standing on the basis of models and virtual reality and to facilitate a dialogue between scientists and decision makers through better visualization. This is an important basis for developing measures that can help preventing imminent dangers and allow humans to adapt smoothly to the effects of global climate change. Thus the focus of the 6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty lies at the heart of UFZ research. I appreciate the terrific interest and participation at the conference and express a very warm welcome to everybody here on UFZ’s main campus. For all participants, let it be key scientists, Ph.D. students, helpers and PostDocs, exhibitors and pub- lishers, I wish a fruitful exchange on the state of the art in environmental modelling and I’m glad that the UFZ can support this important work by hosting you here at our conference centre. Georg Teutsch Scientific Managing Director Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ 6 Greetings Ralf Seppelt iEMSs 2012 Convenor Data, models and simulations lay at the heart of the society´s re- search agenda. Besides being of interest for developing any kind of tools, methods or improvement of decision support systems, mod- els and simulations are a key