Conference Programme Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions Under Uncertainty

Conference Programme

6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs)

Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty

1–5 July 2012 Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig, Germany

1 Please fill in:

This iEMSs 2012 booklet belongs to

If found please return to conference desk and ask for chocolate.

2 Table of Contents

Greetings of the organizers ...... 5 iEMSs 2012 committees ...... 9 Special thanks ...... 10 General information ...... 13 Eco-friendly meeting ...... 16 Support of young researchers ...... 17 Events ...... 18 Culture in Leipzig ...... 23 Keynotes ...... 27 Short description of sessions and workshops ...... 41 Sessions ...... 43 Workshops ...... 77 The review process: Instead of an eulogy ...... 95 Conference programme – list of presentations ...... 97 Monday • July 2 ...... 99 Tuesday • July 3 ...... 129 Wednesday • July 4 ...... 159 Thursday • July 5 ...... 185 List of presenters ...... 205 Conference evaluation form ...... 213 Sudoku ...... 214

3 4 Greetings

Alexey Voinov iEMSs President

It is my pleasure to welcome you to the sixth bi-annual conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Soci- ety. Over the past 12 years the society has been steadily growing in numbers and in scope. But as scholars who know about sustainability and care for the environment, we are well aware that it’s not the growth that we are after. It’s the development, the quality that matters most. In this regards we are doing even better.

Several threads have emerged as ongoing collaborative topics, which have already established themselves as focal areas of the So- ciety and progress from one meeting to another (such as Data Min- ing, Fluid Dynamics, Participatory Modeling, Integrated Modeling, Decision Support Systems, etc.). Important position papers come out of this collaboration that continues between the meetings.

Our Journal is rated high both as a ‘modeling’ and as an ‘environmental’ publication.

In 2010 the Student and Young Researchers Network started as a bottom-up initiative of our students and do hope that this effort will gain further momentum during this meeting.

The Society is a complex adaptive system. As with other such systems, it is not only the elements, the participants that play a role, but, even more importantly, it is the interactions between them. The Society was launched when electronic communications via the Internet have started to become the new standard, the new way of life. We have very much benefited from the Web, maintaining a lively web site and handling most of our business electronically. Today there are even more advanced social media tools that we are yet to explore and incorporate into our Society.

But we also know that no virtual communication, no “second life” can replace real human touch, a handshake, an eye contact. Every two years we have a chance to catch up with this, to put faces to e-mail addresses, to hug our friends, and to share a drink and a laugh clarifying all remaining issues. For the last six years at our meetings we pay special attention to promoting interaction leaving ample time for people to discuss and work together. We are organizing workshops in addition to usual session. The idea behind these workshops is to offer a platform for brainstorming on a particular topic. These workshops lead to the ongoing collaboration, which we try to promote. We do hope that you will find some interesting groups to join now and perhaps initiate new ones next time.

We are very grateful to Ralf Seppelt, Dagmar Bankamp, Susanne Lange and many others who are giving us this wonderful opportunity of real human interaction. For the last several months many people from the local organizing committee have been working very hard to create a perfect working environment and to make your iEMSs experience in Leipzig pleasant and fruitful. Never feel shy to say thank you to these people when you meet them.

Let’s make the most of this meeting, and gain momentum that will keep us going for the next two years. Of course, after all, it is the volunteer efforts that keep the Society going. As an outgoing president I am very grateful for all the support and activity of all our members, especially our Board and our Office. It’s this work and these efforts that make our Society happen. Alexey Voinov iEMSs president

5 Greetings

UFZ Director Georg Teutsch

As an international competence centre for the environmental sciences, the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) investigates the complex interactions between mankind and nature under the influence of global change. In close cooperation with decision makers and stakeholders, scientists at the UFZ develop system solutions to improve the management of complex environmental systems and to tackle environmental issues.

We – the 1000 people at UFZ in Leipzig, Halle and Magdeburg – work on the management of water resources, the impact of land use change on human landscapes and biodiversity, the impacts of chemicals in the environment and on human health as well as adaption strategies for climate change.

This modern environmental research is almost unthinkable without the aid of comprehensive computer models. With our activities on modelling and visualization we aim to improve process understanding on the basis of models and virtual reality and to facilitate a dialogue between scientists and decision makers through better visualization. This is an important basis for developing measures that can help preventing imminent dangers and allow humans to adapt smoothly to the effects of global climate change.

Thus the focus of the 6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty lies at the heart of UFZ research. I appreciate the terrific interest and participation at the conference and express a very warm welcome to everybody here on UFZ’s main campus.

For all participants, let it be key scientists, Ph.D. students, helpers and PostDocs, exhibitors and pub- lishers, I wish a fruitful exchange on the state of the art in environmental modelling and I’m glad that the UFZ can support this important work by hosting you here at our conference centre.

Georg Teutsch Scientific Managing Director Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ

6 Greetings

Ralf Seppelt iEMSs 2012 Convenor

Data, models and simulations lay at the heart of the society´s research agenda. Besides being of interest for developing any kind of tools, methods or improvement of decision support systems, models and simulations are a key for understanding options and opportunities for shaping our future. In almost all of our decisions we explicitly or implicitly make use of models that reflect the simplified understanding of our environment. Every model and every decision has uncertainties. Recent decline of environmental resources and ecosystem services provided by our environment are a conse- quence of managing a considerably complex system: our planet.

We meet at the 2012 iEMSs conference here in Leipzig, Germany to highlight and discuss the topic Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty.

We focus on questions such as: How can researchers and scientists who professionally deal with complex systems cope with challenges of environmental resource management that our societies are faced with? The scientific aim of the meeting thus is to enhance our understanding of environmental processes and decision making by fostering the discussion and interchange of solutions, ideas, new methods and techniques, and future research directions in environmental modelling and software.

Secondly, we aim at supporting young scientists in their early stages of career by providing opportunities for networking with senior scientists to share their experience about publications, project acquisition/management as well as lecturing. We do so, for instance, by conducting workshops such as “What editors and referees really want” organized by chief editors and reviewers of important scientific journals. Students are also awarded for best papers and best presentations.

Thirdly, we acknowledge our responsibility for the environment by organizing the iEMSs 2012 as an eco-friendly meeting. We reduce any kind of paper material to a minimum, pens and papers will be available on demand at the conference office – and we waive the conference bags. Tickets for public transport are freely available for all participants. Further we will compensate for the green house gas emissions of the conference venue and our catering will be purely vegetarian.

Finally, I wish us all an interesting and challenging meeting, which will provide us many opportunities for a mutual exchange, have impacts on our field of science and our society, and be beneficial for young scientists. I hope it will be worth for all of you coming to Leipzig, the city where demonstrations brought about the peaceful reunification of Germany.

Hereby I would like to welcome more than 350 delegates from many countries all over the world here at the “Leipziger KUBUS”, the congress centre of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ.

Ralf Seppelt Convenor

7 iEMSs Student and Greetings Young Researcher Anna Cord, Francesco Network Falcieri, Markus Stocker

Environmental modelling is a multifaceted, interdisciplinary, and rapidly-growing field of research. Exchanging ideas and interacting with other researchers are thus central to all of us working in this area. We therefore very much appreciate the iEMSs society’s active support of young scientists in the early stages of their career – by promoting the exchange of experience with senior scientists, by awarding prices for best papers and best presentations to student participants at the iEMSs conferences, and finally by organizing workshops designed to meet the needs of young researchers.

During this year’s iEMSs meeting (for the first time!) three special workshops will be held for young academics. The workshops J1 and J2 specifically address important aspects of how to write and publish scientific papers – both from the publisher’s and the reviewer’s perspective. Workshop J3 is the meeting of the iEMSs Student and Young Researcher Network which was initiated during the 2010 conference in Ottawa. However, a network exists only through its participants and their interaction. We therefore invite everybody (both young and senior) to join us for this workshop and to help us shape the iEMSs network for young academics: How can we tailor our activities to your needs? How can we improve the information flow in our network? What services could it provide? How can we best collaborate despite the distances? These and other questions will be discussed.

Besides this, the biennial meetings of the society, which attract a broad audience from all over the world, by themselves offer unique networking opportunities. We would like to encourage all students to take advantage of these – this could possibly be the starting point for your next research project!

Anna Cord, Francesco Falcieri, Markus Stocker iEMSs Student and Young Researcher Network

8 iEMSs 2012 Committees

Local Organisation Committee Ralf Seppelt, UFZ Leipzig, D Joaquim Comas Matas, Univ. Girona, Catalunya Martin Volk, UFZ Leipzig, D Susan Cuddy, CSIRO, AUS Sven Lautenbach, UFZ Leipzig, D Brian Fath, Towson Univ., USA Nina Schwarz, UFZ Leipzig, D Francois Gillet, Univ. de Franche-Comté – CNRS, F Joerg Priess, UFZ Leipzig, D Carlo Giupponi, Univ. Ca’ Foscari di Venezia, IT Christian Schweitzer, UFZ Leipzig, D Giorgio Guariso, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, IT Olaf Kolditz, UFZ Leipzig, D Holly Hartmann, CLIMAS/SAHRA, USA Sindy Rosenkranz-Bleiholder, UFZ Leipzig, D George Jacoub, Ontario Ministry Env., CA Dagmar Bankamp, UFZ Leipzig, D Anthony J. Jakeman, The Australian National Uni- Susanne Lange, F&U confirm, D versity, Canberra, AUS Ogarit Uhlmann, F&U confirm, D Sander Janssen, Wageningen University, NL Ari Jolma, Helsinki University of Technology, FI Organisers of Student Awards Kostas Karatzas, Aristotle University, GR Gerry Laniak, EPA, USA Sue Cuddy, ANU, AUS Guy Larocque, Centre de Foresteries de Lauren- Tatiana Filatova, University of Twente, NL tides, Québec, CA Daniel Pete Loucks, Cornell University, USA Scientific Advisory Committee Brian McIntosh, Int. WaterCentre, Brisbane, AUS Georgii Alexandrov, NIES Fellow, Tsukuba, JP Jaroslav Mysiak, FEMA, IT Dan Ames, Idaho State University, USA Nigel Quinn, L.Berkley Nat. Lab., Berkely, USA Robert Argent, Bureau Meteorol., Victoria, AUS Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli, IDSIA, Lugano, CH Jim Ascough, USDA, Fort Collins, CO, USA Miquel Sànchez i Marrè, Univ. Politechn. Catalunya Ioannis Athanasiadis, Democritus Univ. Thrace, Gerald Schimak, ARC Seibersdorf, AT Xanthi, GR Richard Sojda, USGA, USA Mark Borsuk, Thayer School Eng. at Dartmouth, David Swayne, Univ. Guelph, CA USA Kristina Voigt, GSF Neuherberg, D Francois Bousquet, CIRAD, F Alexey Voinov, University of Twente, NL Brett Bryan, CSIRO, AUS

9 Session & Workshop Organisers, Special Thanks Stream Facilitators and Volunteers

Instead of Conference give-away articles... Above all we are very grateful to the 129 session & workshop organisers and stream facilitators as well as the approximately 30 volunteers & assistants for their commitment concerning the iEMSs 2012! As an expression of our gratitude for their extremely important and valuable work we supported the “GEO Rainforest Conservation”, a German organization dedicated to the preservation of tropical and sub-tropical forestst world-wide. More detailed information will be provided during the conference.

www.regenwald.de • E-Mail: [email protected]

10 General Information Eco-friendly Meeting Events Culture in Leipzig

11 12 General Information On-site

REGISTRATION Please register at the registration desk for iEMSs 2012. The registration starts Sunday evening (July 1) during the Icebreaker party at Moritzbastei Leipzig (city centre, entrance: 6:30 pm, start: 7:00 pm) and at 8:00 am every morning from Monday to Thursday in the foyer of the Leipziger KUBUS conference centre. Every participant receives this booklet and a name tag which has to be worn during the entire conference. Contact of conference desk: phone +49 (0)341 235 1944 • [email protected] Opening hours of conference desk (Kubus foyer): Monday, July 2: 8:00 am–6:00 pm Tuesday, July 3: 8:30 am –7:30 pm Wednesday, July 4: 8:30 am–6:00 pm Thursday, July 5: 8:30 am–5:00 pm

PLENARY SESSIONS All plenaries will take place at Leipziger KUBUS in lecture Hall 1AB. On Monday, Tuesday and Wednes- day, the plenaries will be followed by a coffee break and, afterwards at 11:10 am, by 11 or 12 parallel sessions (there are no plenaries on Thursday, so that the parallel sessions and workshops will start directly at 9:00 am).

LECTURE HALLS We have 6 lecture halls at Kubus (1A, 1B, 1CD (1st floor), 2A and 2B (2nd floor), and room 112 (ground floor), and 6 other lecture halls and seminar rooms (SR) at UFZ campus nearby: in building 4 SR 102, in building 1.0 the lecture hall in the 1st floor, in building 2.0 (canteen) the “Blue Salon” and the “Winter- garden”, and in building 7.1 SR 201 and 301. In the breaks on Monday, July 2, you will find guides dressed in blue t-shirts with UFZ-logo outside the KUBUS all along the campus. They assist you to find the quickest way to your session or workshop of your choice. Please have a look at the enclosed campus map and Kubus room plan.

CATERING Lunch | A vegetarian lunch buffet is served in the Foyer of the KUBUS each day between 12:50 pm and 2:30 pm. Lunch is included in the conference fee. Coffee breaks | Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, there are two coffee breaks daily: one in the morning from 10:30 am until 11:10 am and one break in the afternoon from 3:50 pm until 4:30 pm. They are served in the Kubus foyer. In the other buildings (1.0, Canteen and 7.1), water and fruits will be available all day and tea/coffee only in the afternoon breaks. All coffee breaks are included in the conference fee. On Thursday, there is only one coffee break in the morning between 10:30 am and 11:10 am. In the afternoon, coffee will be available at the Farewell Party (see below). Icebreaker, Earth 2100, Conference Dinner & Farewell | All special events, the Icebreaker Party at Moritzbastei (Sunday, July 1, city centre, entrance: 6:30 pm, start: 7:00 pm), Earth 2100 (Passage Kinos, Monday, July 2, entrance 7:45 pm, start: 8:00 pm), the Conference Dinner (Leipzig Zoo Gondwanaland, Wednesday, July 4, entrance 7:15 pm) and the Farewell Party (Kubus Foyer, Thursday, July 5, 3:30 pm) are included in the conference fee. For further details, please take a look at the following pages.

13 On-site General Information

CONFERENCE FEES FOR PAYMENT ON-SITE • iEMSs Member EUR 550 • Non-Member EUR 600 • Student + iEMSs Member EUR 300 • Student + Non-Member EUR 350 You may pay cash or by card (EC, VISA, AMEX).

CONFERENCE APP iEMSs 2012 will offer a conference programme app for easy access to a great programme overview with all presentations, both for iphone and android. Downloading is included in the conference fee for all iEMSs 2012 participants. Please note: For technical reasons, only two chairs per session could be mentioned. For more information, please contact the confernce desk or take a look at our webpage “Confer- ence Details” (http://www.iemss.org/sites/iemss2012).

TECHNICAL INFORMATION FOR GIVING A TALK Please • come to the room of the session where are you going to give your talk latest in the break before your session starts. An assistant will help you to save your file to the presentation notebook etc. • bring your file on a USB stick or CD, please DO NOT bring your own notebook. • inform us at the soonest in case that you have audio / video / special software included. Our presentation notebooks provide Office 2010 and Acrobat Reader. Please note: Within the conference management system the author who’s listed first is defined as presenter on site (whereas you could list the authors in your desired order in your PDF full paper).

INTERNET AND WIRELESS LAN ACCESS Access to the internet is available at the 1st floor of the Leipziger KUBUS in the PC Pool Monday to Wednesday 2:00 pm (July 2–4). Wireless access to the internet is available in all session buildings on the campus, name of network and password will be provided on-site.

PC POOL The PC Pool is situated at Kubus, 1st floor (next to the lecture halls 1A, B, CD). Here you may check your e-mails or print your boarding passes and train tickets from Monday to Wednesday (2:00 pm).

CLOAKROOM There is a cloakroom in the Kubus foyer, however, we accept no liability for items left there. Next to the Kubus cloakroom, there are lockboxes which work with EUR 1 coins (to be returned after use). In most session rooms, coat racks are provided additionally.

14 General Information On-site

HOW TO GET TO THE LEIPZIGER KUBUS AND TO THE UFZ CAMPUS Address | Leipziger KUBUS, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig. Please visit www.leipziger-kubus.de Phone: +49 341 235 2264 • Fax: +49 341 235 2782 • [email protected] By rail | In front of Central Station tram No. 3 (heading for “Sommerfeld” or “Taucha”); after about 15 minutes alight at stop “Torgauer/ Permoserstraße”; walk Permoserstraße 300 metres eastward to find the entrance of KUBUS. By plane | From Airport take train (regional express) to Central Station; from the Central Station take tram No. 3 (heading for “Sommerfeld” or “Taucha”); after about 15 minutes alight at stop “Torgauer/ Permoserstraße”; walk Permoserstraße 300 metres eastward to find the entrance of KUBUS. By taxi | Taxi from Central Station approx. EUR 10, from Airport approx. EUR 30. For taxis | cabs, please call +49 (0) 341 4884 or please ask at the conference desk in the Kubus foyer. By car | On A14 motorway take exit “Leipzig-Ost” and head for Leipzig Stadtzentrum/City Centre. Fol- low Permoserstrasse up to the underground parking sign for conference Leipziger KUBUS on right hand side. Leipzig has an “environmental protection zone”. Vehicles must have a green badge in order to be permitted entering the city zone.

LOCAL TRANSPORT Your name tag for the iEMSs 2012 conference is, at the same time, your ticket for the local transport from Monday, July 2, to Thursday, July 5 (train to airport is not included). This ticket is valid for the city of Leipzig (zone 110); you may use all tram and bus lines as well as all local trains in that zone during the entire conference. For more information and detailed route maps, please have a look at www.lvb. de (available in English and French).

How to get to the UFZ conference venue Leipziger KUBUS and to the UFZ campus

15 Conference philosophy Eco-friendly meeting

When we started organising the iEMSs 2012, lots of ideas were exchanged on how to put our conference title into practice for the conference itself. “What (more) can we do?” we asked ourselves here in Leipzig as well as in the iEMSs Board. Some answers on this started spreading their seeds among all of us and being an eco-friendly meeting in all possible facets became one of the four pillars of the conference philosophy. Finally, much more actions were put into practice than we thought in the very beginning, such as… • Compensation of greenhouse gas emissions for the conference venue through a German initiative called “Moor Futures” (www.moorfutures.de), which concentrates on the protection of swamps in the Eastern part of Germany for climate protection and preservation of ecosystem and their services; • Support of public transport: Tickets for local transport are freely available for all conference participants; • Catering: We decided on vegetarian food on the conference campus and included as much as possible organic and/or fair trade products with preference for regionally grown/produced food and beverages. • Reduce paper to a minimum: There is only one printed conference program per participant. So take care of your program! Conference proceedings will be available only online. There is also a ConferenceApp that gives access to most information on your smart phone. • Conference bags: It´s not necessary to watch out for them ´cause there aren’t any. Paper for notes will be available on individual demand basis in the seminar rooms; anything else that you would miss? Please ask for it at the registration desk, and get to know the people! • Presents and gifts: Here you can recognize our wish to take over responsibility for the environment by supporting “GEO Rainforest Conservation”, an independent registered charity, which is committed to preserve the tropical and subtropical forests world-wide while improving the living conditions of the people who inhabit forest regions (www.regenwald.de, E-Mail: regenwald- [email protected]).

Finally, we invite you to further spread this seed! Additional ideas on what one could do for further iEMSs conferences are more than welcome!

16 Support of young researchers Networking on-site

Conferences are an ideal place of networking, exchange, discussions and spreading of new ideas. This is of importance to all of us, but possibly slightly more important to young scientists. Thus an important pillar of the conference philosophy is to support young scientists in their early stages of career by various means: • Provide networking opportunities with senior scientists to share experiences; • Special conference fee rates for PhD and master students, which are as low as possible; • Opportunity to join the conference organization as a volunteer to make further contacts and share the experience of realizing a big scientific conference with round 400 participants; • Devote space and time within the official program for a workshop (J3) concerning theiEMSs Student and Young Researcher Network (https://sites.google.com/site/iemssnetwork/); • Conduct special workshops for students to enhance their knowledge concerning publications in an editors and reviewers workshop. These workshops (J1 & J2) are led by experienced editors and reviewers who share their experience with the young researchers; • And last but not least, many thanks to the iEMS Society and our sponsor ESRI for their support of student awards for best presentations and papers, which turned out to be a good tradition of the society and the conference. Practical support and any other ideas on how to further enhance the young researchers network are welcome!

17 Events

Sunday 1 • Monday 2 Icebreaker

ICEBREAKER PARTY on Sunday | 7:00 pm In the heart of Leipzig, nestled behind the Gewand- haus Concert Hall and City Skyscraper, you find the Moritzbastei, the only remaining part of the ancient city fortifications. The Moritzbastei was commissioned by Elector Moritz of Saxony in the 16th century and later named after him. You may register here for the iEMSs 2012 conference, have great food and drinks and – last but not least – if you are interested, you may join us for public viewing the finale of the UEFA European Football Champion- ship (also known as the European Cup) in Kiew.

Sunday, July 1 • entrance: 6:30 pm • start: 7 pm • Moritzbastei Leipzig, city centre • www.moritzbastei.de How to get there: When you are looking for the Moritzbastei, the best landmark is the City Skyscraper with the big “mdr” logo on top (in the inner city ring, close to square Augustusplatz). At the foot of this skyscraper (directly behind the New Gewandhaus), you will find the Moritzbastei (from Leipzig main station 5 min to walk along street Goethestraße, across square Augustusplatz, heading for the City Skyscraper). Entrance: included

City Skyscraper Gewandhaus with mdr logo on top

MORITZBASTEI

18 Events

UFZ VIS LAB Monday 2

UFZ VIS LAB on Monday | 5:45–6:45 pm Get to know the UFZ Visualization Center at the UFZ campus during a guided tour! The Visualization Center is part of the Department of Environmental Informatics, and collaborates with other working groups from all over the UFZ and external partners. Its aim is to improve the insight into complicated 3D and 4D data sets and foster communication among scientists with different speciali- zations or among scientists and the public. We use a back projection-based stereoscopic visualization environment, purpose built by BARCO, with an approximately 6x3 meter large main screen and corresponding projections on the floor and two side wings. In order to achieve a high resolution of approximately 6400x1800 pixels, 13 SXGA+ projectors (BARCO Galaxy) are used to run this system. The image is generated frame sequentially for the left and the right eye and users wear special glasses which separate these images, so that they get a real 3D stereoscopic view. For the stereo separation we can switch between two technologies – active stereo, using shutter glasses and passive stereo, using Infitec and BARCO’s Active Infitec+ technology. We use an ART tracking system, so that viewers can turn their head and move while the image is always computed in a way that correctly maintains perspective, and they can move through the virtual landscape using a pointer. The rendering is done using a computer cluster with 13 workstations that has been purpose built by SysGen. Each workstation is fitted with high-end NVidia QuadroFX 5500 graphics boards which are synchronised using GenLock and SwapLock. In addition to the normal network, the workstations are interconnected using Infiniband. The overall hardware setup in our laboratory is sketched below. To run visualizations in this system specialized software is needed that runs in a master-slave mode. For our development we use OpenSG which is an open source scenegraph that provides the necessary cluster support and the commercial software VRED from PI-VR GmbH, former VREC GmbH. The VRED software is mainly focused on the automotive industry and provides high quality rendering. We have extended this software, using Qt, OpenSG and the Visualization Toolkit (www.vtk.org), to meet our needs regarding the interactive visualization of scientific data. The Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research is working in very diverse subject areas and so the projects at the visualization center are equally wide ranging. However, they mainly comprise 3 different project categories - visualization of scientific data (e.g. from geoscientific simulations), visualization of landscapes and visualization of urban areas. Currently the emphasis of our work is on the visualization of geoscience data. Monday, July 2 • 5:45–6:45 pm • Meeting point: Kubus foyer • www.ufz.de/index.php?en=14171 Please sign in at the conference desk for this tour. More guided VIS LAB tours to be announced on-site! Entrance: included

19 Events

Monday 2 Earth 2100

EARTH 2100 • Movie on Monday | 8:00 pm Directed by Rudy Bednar. With Jameel Ahmad, Janine Benyus, Mal- colm Bowman, Reinhard Buetikofer. Executive Producer Michael Bicks. With live Skype interview with executive producer Michael Bicks. Running Time: 84 min. • Language: English, no German subtitles Based on a television program that was presented by the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) network in 2009–2010. “This program was developed to show the worst-case scenario for human civilization. Again, we are not saying that these events will happen – rather, that if we fail to seriously address the complex problems of climate change, resource depletion and overpopulation, they are much more likely to happen.” Michael Bicks The initial phase of the project was an online “crowd sourcing” project where viewers were encouraged to submit homemade videos imagining life in 2015, 2050, and 2100 in locations in Africa, Aus- tralia, United States, Europe, India, South America, and China. The movie explores what a worst-case future might look like if humans do not take action on current or impending problems that could threaten civilization. The problems addressed in the program include climate change, overpopulation, and misuse of energy resources. The events parallel the life of a fictitious storyteller, “Lucy”, as she describes how the events affect her life. The program included predictions for the years until 2100 by scientists, historians, social anthropologists, and economists. Monday, July 2 • entrance: 7:45 pm • start: 8 pm • Passage Kinos, city centre • www.passage-kinos.de How to get there: The Cinema Passage Kinos is situated in the “Jägerhofspassage” between the streets “Hainstraße” and “Große Fleischergasse”, 5 min to walk from Leipzig Main Station (please see map). We cordially would like to thank Stadtwerke Leipzig for supporting the event! Entrance: Please ask for your free ticket at the conference desk in the Kubus foyer.

20 Events

Zoo Conference Dinner Wednesday 4

Conference Dinner on Wednesday in Gondwanaland at Leipzig Zoo | 7:15 pm You definetely should not miss that: Discover three continents under one roof: South America, Africa and Asia. Entering Gondwanaland will appeal to all of your senses as you come into close contact with the tropical rainforest of Africa, Asia and South America. Under a covered area (larger than two football pitch- es) there are 40 exotic animal species and approx. 500 different plant and animal species. Follow the jungle paths or treetop trail and drift along in a boat on the jungle river Gamanile.

In Gondwanaland a real rainforest is growing right in the middle of Leipzig. Over 17,000 plants started their journey in nursery gardens in Thailand, Malaysia and Florida – to create a tropical environment at every level from the jungle floor to the canopy. In the garden of tropical crops 60 exotic fruits and spices are grown. Here for example you can touch and smell pineapples, yams, guavas, pepper or co- coa. After having discovered this fascinating jungle world, a vegetarian buffet with fish will be served. We will have a mixture between seating accommodation and standing room in order to enhance communication flows. Please note: Gondwanaland has jungle paths > no highheels, please! Gondwanaland is tropical (about 30°C), the restaurant is not (about 20°C) – please bring appropriate clothing (a light jacket or so). Another highlight of the evening will be the iEMSs 2012 award ceremony. Wednesday, July 4 • entrance: 7:15 pm • start: 7:45 pm • Zoo Leipzig • www.zoo-leipzig.de/en/ How to get there: Zoo Leipzig is very central and can be reached in several minutes on foot from the city centre. If you come from Leipzig’s central station or take the tram, simply follow our signs after getting off. There are tracks on the ground to lead you the way:

• Follow the tracks “Dschungelpfad”: 570 m from the tram stop “Wilhelm-Liebknecht- Platz”; • Follow the tracks “Entdeckerschlucht”: 630 m from the tram stop Goerdelerring; • Follow the tracks “Schlängelroute”: 820 m from the central train station.

By tram: Please take tram no. 12 from Leip- zig Main Station in direction “Gohlis-Nord“ 3 stops to stop “Zoo”. Entrance: Your confernce badge is your entrance ticket

21 Events

Thursday 5 Closing • Farewell Party

Closing Session • Farewell Party Apart from the convenor´s remarks in the closing session, the best student presentations and best student papers will be awarded. Further, the next iEMSs´s venue will be announced and presented. After the closing remarks, please join our farewell party! Meet colleagues, old and new friends and take the chance to exchange experiences, thoughts and e-mail addresses. Enjoy great live music from all over the world (www.favoritesong.de), snacks and drinks. And make plannings when to meet next time in Leipzig! Thursday, July 5 Closing Session: 2:00–3:00 pm • Kubus Lecture hall 1AB Farewell party: 3:00–4:30 pm • Kubus foyer and terrace Entrance: included

22 Enjoy Leipzig

Sightseeing Have a great time

Leipzig is the second largest city in Saxony, with a population of about half a million. It is situated at the confluence of the rivers Weisse Elster, Pleisse and Parthe, in the middle of a water-rich landscape of both natural and artificial lakes. Often mentioned in the news and the media for its high quality of life, Leipzig as much to offer in terms of leisure and cultural activities. Below, you can find a list with some of the city’s many attractions. • St. Thomas Church: home to the St Thomas’s Boys Choir, it hosts the grave of Johann Sebastian Bach • St. Nicholas Church: the oldest church in the city, it hosts one of the largest concert or- gans in Germany. It played an outstanding role within the peaceful revolution 1989. • Leipzig Opera House: opened 1960, it stages operas and ballets and can accommodate an audience of over 1400 • Leipzig Gewandhaus: a concert hall opened in the autumn of 1981, it is home of the fa mous Gewandhaus Orchestra • Leipzig Zoo: one of the most important Zoological Gardens in Europe • Völkerschlachtdenkmal: Monument to the Battle of the Nations: commemorating a battle fought against the Napoleon by the allied armies, it includes a very popular viewing platform, more than 90 m high • Leipziger Messe: Leipzig Trade Fair: exhibition center opened in April 1996 • Lake Cospuden: a reconverted open-strip coal mine, is now a popular scenic and recre- ational park

Leipzig Tourist Information Leipzig’s Tourist Informationis situated in the newly-built ‘‘Katharinum‘‘, just a few metres from the Old Town Hall, at Katharinenstraße 8 | http://www.ltm-leipzig.de Phone +49 (0)341 7104-260 or -265 Fax +49 (0)341 7104-271 or -276 [email protected] Opening hours of the Tourist Information: Mon – Fr from 9:30 am till 6:00 pm • Sat from 9:30 am till 4:00 pm • Sun from 9:30 am till 3:00 pm The Leipzig Tourist Information offers guided city walks in several languages. Please ask at the conference desk for the “3 Days in Leipzig” booklet with a lot of interesting and useful information!

23 Enjoy Leipzig

Have a great time Pubs • Restaurants

There are three main pub districts in Leipzig: 1 In the city centre the small street “Barfußgässchen” and surroundings (the so called “Drallewatsch”): bars, pubs, restaurants 2 Street “Gottschedstraße” (vis-a-vis St. Thomas Church, behind the ring street “Dittrichring”): bars, pubs, restaurants, discothecs 3 “The “Karli” (i.e. street Karl-Liebknecht-Straße), south of he city centre: students and young people, pubs and restaurants. Please see map on opposite page.

Our recommendations Coffee Shops | Café Kandler (Thomaskirchhof) • Riquet (Schuhmachergäßchen) • Zum Arabischen Coffe Baum (Barfußgässchen) • Café Grundmann (August-Bebel-Straße / Leipzig South) Home-style Cuisine | Auerbachs Keller (Mädlerpassage) • Zills Tunnel (Barfußgässchen / Klostergasse) • Thüringer Hof (Burgstraße) • Ratskeller (New Town Hall) International Cuisine | Augustus (at square Augustusplatz, nearby Gewandhaus) • Alte Nikolaischule (Nikolaikirchhof 2) • Barcelona (Gottschedstraße) Italian Cuisine | Don Camillo & Peppone (Barfußgässchen / Klostergasse, medium to higher price level) • Dolce Vita (Barfußgässchen) • La Grotta (Ratsfreischulstraße 6–8) Japanese Cuisine | Sakura Kaiten Sushi Bar (Bosestraße, nearby Gottschedstraße) • Mr Moto (Große Fleischergasse 21, medium price level) Students’ Pub | Moritzbastei (our Icebreaker location), very attractive location below the ground

24 25 26 Keynotes in alphabetical order of keynote speakers

27 28 Keynotes

Lars Bernard Tue 3 • 9 am | Kubus 1ABCD

About In 2007 Lars Bernard became an Associate Professor of GIS at the Technische Universität Dresden. He holds a Ph.D. in Geoinformatics from the University of Münster (2001) and a Diploma in Geography (1995). From 1992 to 2001 he worked as researcher at the Institute for Geoinformatics at the Uni- versity of Münster. In 2001 he became an assistant Professor in Geoinformatics and in 2003 he stood in for a full professorship in Geoinformatics. End of 2003 he moved to the Joint Research Centre (Italy) to participate in the development of guidelines for the Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Eu- rope (INSPIRE).

His research and teaching activities focus on design, development and application of component based GIS and component based spatio-temporal simulation systems as well as their linkage and the realization of Spatial Data Infrastructures. He serves several scientific committees as well as steering boards and expert groups. Lars Bernard has been invited for a number of national and international keynotes and served as chair and co-chair and in several program committees of national and international GI conferences and workshops.

2007– Associate Professor for GIS (W2), Faculty of Forestry, Geosciences and Hydrosciences, Tech- nische Universität Dresden

2003–2006 Scientific Officer, European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre in Ispra (Italy)

2003–2004 Guest Lectureship, Carinthia University of Applied Sciences (Villach, Austria)

2003 Temporary Representing a Full Professorship in Geoinformatics, University of Münster

2001–2003 Assistant Professor, Institute of Geoinformatics, University of Münster

2001 Dr. rer. nat. in Geoinformatics (summa cum laude, with honors). Title of Thesis (in German): Inte- gration of GIS and dynamic climate models using interoperable object-oriented components

1995–2001 Research Associate, Institute of Geoinformatics, University of Münster

1995–2001 Software Engineer, con terra GmbH, Münster

1995 Diploma in Physical Geography, University of Münster (excellent). Title of Thesis (in German): A GIS-based Mesoscale Model for 3D Simulation of the nocturnal atmospheric boundary layer for environmental planning

1992–95 Student Assistant, Institute for Geography, University of Münster, Germany

1991–92 Technical assistant for analysis of remote sensing data. UVE GmbH, Herne, Germany

29 Keynotes

Abstract Lars Bernard

Sharing Environmental Information: Digital Earths, Scientific Geodata Infra- structures, Clouds and other misty things

It is a bit more than a decade after the former US vice president (Gore, 1999) coined the term Digi- tal Earth to envisage the future usage of virtual (digital) globes based on internet and virtual reality technologies as a tool to gain seamless access to various kinds of spatio-temporal data sets that are globally distributed, have different scales and resolutions and describe the state of the environment and potential environmental threads. Today, a good part of that vision become reality in a number of mostly commercially driven virtual globe applications that we use on a daily basis to virtually explore other places. Whereas Gore still imagined these applications as being available in only certain institutions to provide the potentially required powerful base technology, the enormous technological progress related to geodata acquisition, computer power, internet protocols and geodata processing allows today for usage of such applications not only on our own desktops but even also as ‘apps’ on various kinds of mobile devices. Infrastructures to share geospatial data from spatially distributed and diverse organisations form the backbone of the digital earth, and different species of these infrastructures can be found today. The remainder of this submission will introduce the basic concepts and state of art for these infrastructures for sharing environmental information and discuss current and future challenges in advancing these infrastructures to better support environmental research.

Lars Bernard Technical University of Dresden Faculty of Forestry, Geosciences and Hydrosciences [email protected] http://tu-dresden.de/fgh/geo/gis

30 Keynotes

Bruce Edmonds Tue 3 • 9:45 am | Kubus 1ABCD

About

Bruce Edmonds is Director of the Centre for Policy Modelling (CPM) of the Manchester Metropolitan University Business School and a Senior Research Fellow. His first degree was in Mathematics at Ox- ford, and his PhD in the Philosophy of Science on “Syntactic Mea- sures of Complexity” at the University of Manchester. With his (now retired) colleague Scott Moss he has developed the CPM into one of the leading research centres in agent-based social simulation in the world. He has expertise in all areas of social simulation.

Grant-Funded Projects Bruce Edmonds is a partner in: Ocopomo (Open Collaboration for Policy Modelling) is an EU-funded project under the 7th Frame- work Programme, Theme 7.3 (ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling), Jan 2010 – Feb 2011.

He is Co-Investigator for: SCID (the Social Complexity of Immigration and Diversity) a 5-year EPSRC project funded under its “Complexity in the Real World” initiative, with the Institute for Social Change and the Department of Theoretical Physics, University of Manchester, Sept 2010 – Aug 2015.

He was the Principle Investigator for: NANIA (Novel Approaches to Networks of Interacting Autonomes) an EPSRC project funded under its “Novel Computation” initiative, in conjunction with the Universities of Manchester, Edinburgh, and East Anglia, Jan 2005 – Jan 2009.

EMIL (Emergence In the Loop: simulating the two way dynamics of norm innovation) an EU FP6 project, under its Future Emergent Technologies initiative, with CNR in Italy, University of Bayreuth in Ger- many, University of Surrey UK, University of Koblenz-Landau in Germany and AITIA International in Hungary, Sep 2006 – Sep 2009.

He was also a co-investigator in: FIRMA (Freshwater Integrated Resource Management with Agents) an EU 5FP, where he lead the modelling workpackage. This was with: Surrey, Oxford, Barcelona, CNR (Rome), CEMAGREF (France), Val- ladolid (Spain), Twente (Netherlands), Koblenz (Germany) and Zurich, March 1999 - February 2003.

CCDEW (Climate Change and Demand for Water) funded by DEFRA (formerly DETR), a consortium (with Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute, Stockhold Envirnoment Institute, Atkins, and Cran- field’s Institute of Water and the Environment) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the demand for water in England and Wales. June 2000 – February 2003.

31 Keynotes

Abstract Bruce Edmonds

Context in Environmental Modelling – the room around the elephant

Behaviour in society and the responses from the environment are both highly context-dependent. There is a lot of evidence that hyman cognition and behaviour depends sharply on the percieved context. Human collective and social behaviour is even more so, indeed may be structured around co- determined contexts that are then entrenched within our training, infrastructure and habits. Similarly ecological niches, where species adapt to each other can be highly specific to a particular set of environmental affordences. The response to a pertabation (e.g. reduction of a resource or introduction of a new species) depends highly on the environmental context.

However, to a very large extent, our formal models of the environment and of our interaction with the environment are context-free. It is often simply assumed that the variations due to specific contexts can be dealt with as a kind of “noise” to a main trend or interaction. Whilst this maybe sometimes the case, this assumption is rarely justified by any evidence or indeed convincing argument . Often it seems that context is ignored simply because it seems too difficult to do otherwise, so work proceeds simply on the hope that context-dependency can be treated as a kind of noise. Other strategies to avoid the issue of context include keeping to within a single, very restricted context (which prevents any general conclusions) or remaining in the world of analogy and natural language discourse (where context-dependency is masked by the innate ability of humans to reapply analogies on the fly). I argue that this must often not be the case and that a collection of context dependent interactions if treated in this way, can result in very different outcomes, especially when one needs to scale any conclusions.

I then seek to show some possible ways forward, ways to include some of the context-dependency in our techniques and models. These include kinds of agent-based modelling that include context- awareness in the agents and actors, kinds of data-mining that could be used to search for patterns in a context-dependent manner, and new techniques from the field of visual analytics to visualise and interact with data via a visual interface in a context-friendly manner.

Bruce Edmonds Centre for Policy Modelling Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester, UK [email protected] http://bruce.edmonds.name

32 Keynotes

Robert M. Hirsch Wed 4 • 9:45 am | Kubus 1ABCD

About Robert M. Hirsch currently serves as a Research Hydrologist at the USGS. From 1994 through May 2008, he served as the Chief Hydrol- ogist of the U.S. Geological Survey. In this capacity, Dr. Hirsch was responsible for all U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) water science programs. These programs encompass research and monitoring of the nation’s ground water and surface water resources including issues of water quantity as well as quality. From 2003–2010 he has served as the co-chair of the Subcommittee on Water Availability and Qual- ity of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology Council, and in this role he has been instrumental in developing interagency priorities for water science and technology.

Hirsch earned a Ph.D. from the Johns Hopkins University Department of Geography and Environmen- tal Engineering. He began his USGS career in 1976 as a hydrologist and has conducted research on water supply, water quality, pollutant transport, and flood frequency analysis. He had a leading role in the development of several major USGS programs: 1) the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program: 2) the National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP); and 3) the National Water Informa- tion System Web (NWISWeb). He has received numerous honors from the Federal Government and from non-governmental organizations, including the 2006 American Water Resources Association’s William C. Ackermann Medal for Excellence in Water Management, and has twice been conferred the rank of Meritorious Senior Executive by the President of the United States. He is a recipient of the USGS “Eugene M. Shoemaker Award for Lifetime Achievement in Communications.” He is co-author of the textbook “Statistical Methods in Water Resources.” Dr. Hirsch is a Fellow of the American As- sociation for the Advancement of Science and an active member of the American Geophysical Union and the American Water Resources Association. He has testified before congressional committees on many occasions and presented keynote addresses at many water-related meetings across the nation.

Since returning to a research position he has focused his efforts on describing long-term changes in streamflow and water quality. This includes exploring century-scale trends in flooding nationwide. It also includes the development of new methods for tracking nutrient transport trends for Chesapeake Bay, Lake Champlain, and the Mississippi River Basin. A major goal of this research is to improve communication of hydrologic trends in a manner that is helpful to water policy and management.

33 Keynotes

Abstract Robert M. Hirsch

The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet…

Mankind is conducting several unplanned continental to global scale experiments. Each of them represents a major departure from our experience with the manipulation of important drivers of our environment. Finding approaches to mitigation and/or adaptation requires an ability to predict the future trajectory of these environmental changes under a range of policies. But, given the unprec- edented nature of these changes it is not sufficient for the models to simply rely on untested simplifi- cations of the basic physics, chemistry or biology involved in the relevant processes. What is needed is a vigorous process of retrospective data analysis as a means of testing our models. We must assess model skill through hindcasting experiments. With respect to freshwater resources and hazards, there is clear evidence that the following drivers have substantial impacts: nutrient enrichment, regional groundwater depletion, and flow modification through storage and diversion. One other driver that is expected to have large impacts on water is enhanced greenhouse forcing of the atmosphere, although these impacts are presently difficult to identify or quantify as compared to those related to the drivers mentioned above. This talk will review and provide some examples of the nature and extent of the impacts of several of the potential drivers. The title of this talk is from the writings of Ralph Keeling (Science, 2008) in which he said: “The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.” The scientific tools for poring over the records must be advanced if we are to manage our planet successfully.

Robert M. Hirsch Research Hydrologist U.S. Geological Survey [email protected]

34 Keynotes

Steven M. Hostetler Mon 2 • 10 am | Kubus 1ABCD

About Steven Hostetler has been a research scientist with the National Re- search Program of the US Geological Survey for the past 23 years. His interdisciplinary research focuses on modeling past, present and future climate at global and regional scales and on using climate model data in a variety of process models to quantify interactions between the climate system and surface hydrology, glaciers, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and wildfire. His current focus is on high resolution climate simulations of present and future climate over North America to provide climate information for further ecological research and companion time slice simulations that span the past 21,000 years to be used in extensive comparisons with a wide range of Holocene proxy records.

Education Ph.D Geography (climate change, numerical modeling), University of Oregon, 12/87 M.S. Mathematics (numerical analysis), University of Oregon, 8/84 B.S. Civil Engineering (hydrology), Ohio State University, 6/73 Professional Position Research Hydrologist GS-15 (full Professor equivalent), U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Di- vision since December, 1989; Project Chief of Lake-Atmsophere Interactions Project, 1992–present; Visiting Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 1988–1995, Affiliate Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1995–1999, Adjunct Professor, Department of Geosciences and College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 1994-present, NSF Review Panel for Earth System History, 1997–1999; Member NCAR Scientific Computing Division Advisory Panel, 1998–2000. Department of Interior Scientific Advisory Council for Climate Change, 2007–. Oregon State University Climate Change Advisory Committee, 2007–. Research Interests We are addressing global to regional scale climate research over the past 106 years and into the future. Project activities include developing and applying a variety of numerical models, visualization techniques, and statistical methods to quantify and explain interactions between the atmosphere, lakes, vegetation, glaciers, and wildfire. We are using global and regional climate models to produce climate information at spatial (e.g., 15 km) and temporal (e.g. daily to monthly) scales that are relevant both to processes on the landscape and to managers that are faced with managing resources under climate change. The model output is being used by a wide range of researchers and by managers within the US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Climate Science Centers, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service.

35 Keynotes

Abstract Steven M. Hostetler

Regional climate simulations and example applications to assess future aquatic habitat and wildfire in Western North America

We have completed multi-decade to multi-century simulations of regional climate over Western and Eastern North America using RegCM3 on a 15 km grid. RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. The model is supported by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoreti- cal Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, Italy. Our research goals are

1) to understand the nature of climate change and variability and how that is manifest in ecosystem and hydrological responses,

2) to evaluate the ability of the regional model to simulate climate changes and

3) to provide climate information in a form that is useful for land managers.

Our results indicate that the overall performance of the regional model is good and that the model improves upon the driving general circulation model, particularly in the mountainous areas of western North America, but that the quality of the simulations varies by geographical location. Reasons for the variability are attributed to biases in the driving general circulation model and to biases inherent in RegCM3. We have used the simulations of present and future climate to evaluate potential changes in the thermal habitat of the Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout in the Greater Yellowstone Area and to assess current and future climate-wildfire linkages. In this presentation we will present an overview of our climate simulations and the results of our applications to environmental assessments.

Steven Hostetler US Geological Survey Oregon State University College of Earth, Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences [email protected] Jay Alder Oregon State University College of Earth, Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Robert Al-Chokhachy US Geological Survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center Bozeman, MT USA

36 Keynotes

Marco A. Janssen Mon 2 • 9:15 am | Kubus 1ABCD

About Marco A. Janssen is an Associate Professor in Modeling Social and Social-Ecological Systems within the School of Human Evolution and Social Change and the Director of the Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity, both at Arizona State University. Janssen has a Master degree in Operations Research from Erasmus Uni- versity Rotterdam (1992), the Netherlands, and a PhD degree in Mathematics from Maastricht University (1996), the Netherlands.

Janssen started his career in the early 1990s on integrated assessment modeling of climate change, especially applying optimization tools to models that integrate both economical and climate systems.

He did this as a research scientist in the integrated assessment modeling group for global change within the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. During the 1990s his interest shifted to complex adaptive systems and modeling adaptive behavior of agents to observed or perceived changes in the environment. Agent-based models were developed for various social- ecological system problems such as climate change, rangeland management, and lake management.

In the 2000s he started to include institutions, the rules and norms that guide human behavior, into the integrated models. He moved to Indiana University in 2002 and started to use experimental data to test and inform the models. Moreover, he started doing behavioral experiments himself on common pool resources in the lab and the field including more ecological dynamics as was commonly used in experimental economics. In 2005 Janssen moved to Arizona State University where holds a professorship on modeling social and social-ecological systems, and teaches computational modeling to social and life science students.

His current research interests focuses on the governance of social-ecological systems. Using casestudy analysis, experimental methods and agent-based models a deeper understanding is aimed to derive on the fit between institutional arrangements and ecological dynamics. Furthermore he works with archaeologists on the rise and fall of societies, and foraging of hominids.

Janssen published more than 100 peer reviewed papers, including journals like Science, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Global Environmental Change, Ecology & Society and Ecological Economics. Janssen is also a co-director of openabm.org a consortium that aims to improve the way we develop, share and utilize agent-based models.

37 Keynotes

Abstract Marco A. Janssen

Using behavioral experiments to inform models of social-ecological systems

There is an increasing acceptance that the standard model of economic man is not appropriate to model decision making of human in collective action situations. However, there is no widely acceptable alternative behavioral model, and there is no panacea solution to sustain social-ecological systems.

From field studies we know that long-lasting irrigation systems, fisheries and forestry systems have institutional arrangements which enable resource users to co-design institutions, stimulate and maintain trusting relationships, have effective monitoring and enforcement, and allow for graduated sanc- tioning (Ostrom, 1990). Improving our models on human-environmental interactions require new behavioral models.

To include such processes into formal models, we started to perform controlled lab and field experiments on social-ecological systems (Poteete et al. 2010). The data from the experiments are used to calibrate agent-based models, and to develop theoretical models of human behavior in common- pool resource situations.

Pattern-oriented modeling of experimental data shows that inclusion of other-regarding preferences is key in order to explain the patterns. Furthermore, agents make decisions probabilistically and differ in their expectations what others will do.

We discuss the methodological opportunities and challenges by combining controlled experiments and agent-based modeling in order to develop empirically grounded models of social-ecological systems. Although the focus is on small-scale irrigation systems the insights hold for a broader set of social-ecological systems.

References Ostrom, E. (1990) Governing the Commons, Cambridge University Press. Poteete, A.M., M.A. Janssen and E. Ostrom (2010) Working Together: Collective Action, the Commons and Multiple Methods in Practice, Princeton University Press.

Marco A. Janssen Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity School of Human Evolution and Social Change Arizona State University [email protected] http://www.public.asu.edu/~majansse/

38 Keynotes

David Miller Wed 4 • 9 am | Kubus 1ABCD 1AB About

I was appointed to the Macaulay Institute for Soil Research in 1984 to map natural resources in Scotland (bracken and peatland) using photogrammetry, remote sensing and coding and implementing spatial analysis tools in the early evolution of Geographic Informa- tion Systems. I surveyed, mapped and reported on 30 peat deposits in Scotland, including the development of digital mapping techniques and databases for their documentation and archiving. Such data are now provided online as part of enabling public access to environmental information, and are now exploited for modelling carbon emissions and life cycle analysis of impacts of land use change (e.g. wind turbine development on peatland).

I also led the technical development of the mapping and digital database of the Land Cover of Scot- land (1988), the first land cover census of the Scotland. I have worked extensively on methods for aspects of environmental impact (e.g. visual impacts of land use change), landscape capacity for windfarms, and assessments of cumulative impacts and trade- offs. This has been underpinned by research on landscape preferences and character, visualisation tools and modelling, and means of enabling public participation in land use planning and decision- making. Applications of the research included use in public enquiries by government into wind farm developments, and strategic spatial plans for renewable energy, and urban planning of access to, and monitoring pressures on, urban greenspaces. My current research interests are to better understand human uses, preferences and interpretation of biophysical and cultural aspects of urban and rural land use and landscapes in the context of ecosystem services and multiple benefits of land use. To achieve this I develop methods for handling and analysing geographic information on natural and socio-economic resources, and development of spatial information systems to support analysis, mapping, monitoring and communication. I coordinate the Land Use Theme of the Scottish Government Research Programme (2011-2016), covering understanding of links across land systems and ecosystem services, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, and several related contracts including a major project on understanding links between greenspace and human health and well-being. I lead areas of the Institute’s knowledge exchange programme, including the virtual reality tools of the Virtual Landscape Theatre (www.macaulay.ac.uk/landscapes). A principal focus is for communicating opinions about aspirations and fears regarding pressures for land use change between politicians, planners, and the public, including schools. Qualifications / Employment history 1984 BSc (Hons I) Topographic Science, University of Glasgow 1993 PhD Department of Mathematics, University of Aberdeen 1984–2003 SO, HSO, and SSO Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Aberdeen 2003–2008 Band 4, Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Aberdeen 2008–2011 Band G, Science Group Leader, Macaulay Land Use Research Institute 2011–present Band G, Research Theme Leader, The James Hutton Institute Role and responsibilities: Research Theme Leader, Realising Land’s Potential

39 Keynotes

Abstract David Miller

Linking landscapes, land use change and ecosystem services with stakeholder understanding and decision-making The European Landscape Convention (COUNCIL OF EUROPE, 2000) has led to integrated views of landscapes in which visual, cultural and social qualities are included with ecological functions (FRY et al., 2009). Indicators which synthesise information relating to landscape functions and their interactions, such as pressures of socioeconomic change systems on natural systems, have been articulated in terms of ecosystem services (ESS) in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Changes in the function, extent and pattern of land uses follow different pathways, and reflect changes in societal expectations and understanding of options and implications of use and re-use of land. This in turn increases pressures on a range of ESS, including human health and well-being (TAKANO ET AL., 2002).

Challenges for developing public policy are to understand the significance of pressures for change and transition pathways in relation to different land use sectors. This paper discusses some consequences for ESS due to interactions between land-use change in rural and urban environments using a framework developed for landscape characteristics (TVEIT et al., 2006; ODE et al., 2009). The framework links concepts of landscape character (e.g. stewardship, coherence, naturalness, complexity, scale/openness, and historicity) with selected ESS (e.g. historicity with cultural services).

The role of such a framework is discussed using socioeconomic scenarios and spatial plans to con- textualise alternative spatial and temporal patterns of rural and urban land use using GIS-based tools (CASTELLAZZI et al., 2010). Interactive virtual reality and visualisation tools were used for developing local scenarios of change, and for gaining insight about how people interpret ESS and understand pathways of change.

Feedback and findings from different types of stakeholders (e.g. children, elected representatives) is used to draw conclusions on types of issues faced for understanding pressures on, and interactions between, ESS and challenges for the development and use of environmental modelling tools.

References Castellazzi, M. S., Matthews, J., Angevin, F., Sausse, C., Wood, G. A., Burgess, P. J., Brown, I., Conrad, K. F., and Perry, J. N. (2010) Simulation scenarios of spatio-temporal arrangement of crops at the landscape scale. Environmental Model- ling and Software 25: 1881–1889. Council of Europe (2000) The European Landscape Convention. Firenze, ETS No.176. http://conventions.coe.int/ Treaty/en/ Treaties/html/176.htm. Fry, G., Tveit, M., Ode, A. and Velarde, M. (2009) The ecology of visual landscapes: Exploring the conceptual common ground of visual and ecological landscape indicators. Ecological Indicators 9: 933-947. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Washington DC: Island Press. http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx. Ode A., Fry G., Messager P., Miller D. and Tveit M. (2009) Indicators of perceived naturalness as drivers of landscape preference. Journal of Environmental Management 90(1): 375-383. Takano, T., Nakamura, K. and Watanabe, M. (2002) Urban residential environments and senior citizens’ longevity in meg- acity areas: the importance of walkable green spaces. Journal of Epidemiological Community Health. 56, 913–918. Tveit, M., Ode, A. and Fry, G. (2006) Key visual concepts in a framework for analyzing visual landscape character. Landscape Research 31(3): 229-255.

David Miller The James Hutton Institute | Realising Land’s Potential Research Theme United Kingdom [email protected] http://www.hutton.ac.uk/staff/david-miller

40 Short Descriptions of Sessions & Workshops

41 42 Stream A Tue 3 • 2:30 pm & Session A1 Wed 4 • 11:10 am • 4.0 | SR 102

Stream A: Environmental Information-, Decision Support-, and Software Systems Interaction design for environmental information systems A1 Daryl H. Hepting, Steven Frysinger & Markus Wrobel Environmental Informatics ( or enviromatics) is a maturing subject with interdisciplinary roots. The application of information and communication technology (ICT) to the environment is emerging as one of great importance as the health of our planet gains priority on research agendas. Modelling is an important aspect of enviromatics, but it is not the only one. Ultimately, environmental information must be put into peoples’ hands so that they can make decisions. How best to involve stakeholders, so that they can access the information they need and put it to use in a satisfying manner, remains a topic of inquiry. Underlying the larger benefits of enviromatics as a tool for policy decisions, is the architecture that enables those decision making processes. To maximize the value of the enviromatics infrastructure, interaction design must be an integral part of the architectural plan. How do we best employ metaphor in educating users and influencing their mental models? What are the ethical concerns involved and how can they be addressed? Appropriate design helps the user to improve the quality of the information that is produced, presented, and used. Contributions are sought that deal with human factors in enviromatics. We seek to put work on interaction design and human computer interaction into the specific context of enviromatics, with the goal of understanding how to draw on and apply existing knowledge to enviromatics so that efforts are focused on refinement and adaptation instead of reinvention. Topics include, but are not limited to: • Usability analyses • Decision psychology • Task analyses (including, for example, decision support) • Validation of ICT tools • Human-computer interface design • Human performance evaluation. • This session is linked with workshop A4 “Defining interaction design for environmental information systems” (July 4, 14:30 h).

43 Stream A

Tue 3 • 11:10 am | Kubus 112 Session A2

Stream A: Environmental Information-, Decision Support-, and Software Systems A2 Striking the balance: advancing multi-objective decision support for a chang- A2 ing world Andrea Castelletti, Alexander Lotov, Francesca Pianosi, Patrick Reed & Dragan Savic The multi-objective nature of environmental modelling and planning problems has long been rec- ognized to arise from the combined effects of increasing pressures on natural resources and diverse stakeholder perspectives. The discovery and negotiated exploitation of critical tradeoffs for environmental systems must embrace the growing spectrum of social groups playing an active role in decision-making processes. Multi-objective optimization (MOO) has been extensively used to support decision-making under conflicting objectives at all decision levels, from monitoring to model calibration, from planning to real-time operation, with application in a wide range of fields including agro-forestry systems, land use planning, water systems, air pollution, transport systems, etc. Despite the wide spectrum of theoretical and application advances, there is the need to advance the capabilities and use MOO given the dramatic innovations in computational and information services over the last decade. This session is aimed at bringing together researchers and practitioners involved in developing and applying MOO, to discuss and compare experiences in facing novel challenges including: • Problems involving a large number of objectives (many-objective problems) • Reduction of computational complexity and novel software solutions • Improved multi-objective algorithms • New metrics for the evaluation of Pareto-front quality • Advanced visualization/decision support techniques.

44 Stream A

Session A3 Mon 2 • 11:10 am • 2.0 Blue Salon

Stream A: Environmental Information-, Decision Support-, and Software Systems A2 Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS): from single A3 methods to an automatic semantic interoperability of artificial intelligence/ mathematical/statistical methods (S-IEDSS-2012) Miquel Sanchez Marre, Karina Gibert, Joaquim Comas, Ignasi Rodriguez Roda, Manel Poch, Ulises Cortes, Rick Sodja, Jean Philippe Steyer, Peter Struss, Mihaela Oprea, Franz Wotawa & Rene Banares-Alcantara The session will establish a discussion platform for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and environmental researchers involved in the development of techniqes, frameworks, software platforms or applications in the Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS) area. Single AI techniques such as rule-based reasoning, fuzzy models, case-based reasoning, qualitative reasoning, artificial neural networks, genetic algorithms and programming, model-based reasoning, Bayesian networks, and multi-agent systems provide a solid basis for construction of reliable and real applications, but there is the general agreement among researchers that a semantic interoperability of AI techniques is the main open challenge in this field. Thus, this is the proposed main issue for the session. IEDSS are present in the environmental management process at different levels such as hazard identification, risk assessment, risk evaluation and intervention decision-making, but there is neither a well defined methodology or framework for the development of IEDSSs nor for model integration nor for model recommendation techniques nor for benchmarking and validation of IEDSSs. Outstanding applications and case studies of IEDSSs with important contributions are also welcome. Other open issues can be addressed, such as the spatial reasoning, temporal reasoning, and uncertainty modelling and management in IEDSSs. These are the open challenges to be addressed by the session papers, and special emphasis will be given to Environment’s sake issues. Session participants may come from all environmental science and AI or statistical modelling fields. Topics: • Semantic interoperability of AI/statistical/mathematical models in IEDSSs • Methodologies and frameworks for the development of IEDSSs • Integration of AI and statistical/mathematical models in IEDSSs • Model recommendation in IEDSSs • Benchmarking and validation of IEDSSs • Relevant applications and case studies of IEDSSs • Other open issues in IEDSSs: spatial reasoning, temporal reasoning, uncertainty modelling and management. • This session is linked with workshop (D12, Wednesday, July 4, 4:30 pm).

45 Stream A

Tue 3 • 2:30 pm • Kubus 112 Session A5

Stream A: Environmental Information-, Decision Support-, and Software Systems A5 System Identification and Control Theory applications for Environmental Sys- A5 tems Management Andrea Castelletti, Marialuisa Volta & Andrea E. Rizzoli The session provides the forum for presenting and discussing new methodological and applicative developments in Systems Identification and Control Theory for environmental modelling and decision-making. The aim is to review the state-of-the-art of systems and control approaches, to discuss novel and improved techniques and to look at feasible developments to the future. Environmental systems considered include, but are not limited to, air pollution (at the global, regional and local scale) and climate change, land (forests, biomasses, etc.) and water resource systems (surface and ground waters, marine and coastal waters). Approaches include system identification, non-linear modelling and control techniques as well as artificial intelligence, data mining and machine learning methods. Particularly welcome are contributions on real time control, distributed control, and large scale system control.

46 Stream A Wed 4 • 4:30 pm & Session A6 Thur 5 • 9 am | Kubus 1A

Stream A: Environmental Information-, Decision Support-, and Software Systems A5 Innovative approaches and components in Environmental Modelling and A6 Software David Swayne & Holly C. Hartmann Environmental modelling and software research projects frequently uncover surprising applications of informatics which are not always anticipated in advance. These innovative approaches are often buried in the details of the concepts and implementations. Innovations in informatics have to be demonstrated in practice to be understood and appreciated. For instance, the difficulties encountered in the implementation of probabilistic networks were largely solved in the 1980s, and yet their deployment in environmental applications is still evolving thirty years hence. Innovation also has difficulty keeping up with the huge speedups in computing power.

47 Stream B

Mon 2 • 11:10 am | Kubus 2B Session B1

Stream B: Human Health and Environmental Risks B1 Modelling social and environmental determinants of human and ecosystem B1A2 health Stefan Reis & Susanne Steinle Quantifying impacts of anthropogenic activities on human and ecosystem health is a key building block in the process of identifying viable mitigation options, in particular to provide a robust evidence base from which (policy) decisions can be derived. Modelling and simulation tools to support this quantification range from rather simple concepts to complex, process-driven models, as well as vary substantially in their coverage of spatial and temporal scales and impact areas. The conceptual frameworks for assessing such impacts are typically integrated across a full-chain approach, to ensure that - as far as possible - synergies and tradeoffs, which would relate to actions taken as a result of the impact assessment process, are fully accounted for. The DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework adopted by the European Environment Agency is one widely accepted causal framework. But while the methodology for integrated impact assessment and tools for quantification are well established, the key challenges today can be seen in a lack of integration and interaction across different scientific and policy communities. In the case of both human and ecosystem health, drivers and pressures often arise from the same activities, and policy actions to - for instance - reduce air pollutant emissions positively affect environmental states which are not directly related to human health (e.g. ecosystem services or biodiversity). On the other hand, viable actions to reduce acidification and eutrophication of natural and semi-natural ecosystems may have negative effects on short-term ra- diative forcing. Last, but not least, social context often modifies susceptibility of receptors to adverse health effects and determines their interaction with the environment. For this session, we would like to invite contributions from modellers working at discipline interfaces, both covering conceptual approaches and practical experience. Furthermore, the integration of processes and data across different spatial, temporal and topical scales would be relevant topics for this session.

48 Stream B

Session B2 Thur 5 • 11:20 am | Kubus 2A

Stream B: Human Health and Environmental Risks B1A2 Methodological developments in the assessment of radiation risks B2 Hagen Scherb & Kristina Voigt The risks of ionizing radiation have been studied at the latest following the explosions of the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Experiences after those bombings yielded some evidence of genetic effects. The second large fields of research were the consequences of the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, essentially terminated in 1963 which injected huge amounts of radioactive materials into the biosphere. Then, many major hazardous incidents respectively accidents of running nuclear facilities, such as, e.g. Takaimura/Japan (1999), Sewersk, Russia (1993), Wladiwostok, Russia (1985), Three Miles Island, USA (1979), Sellafield/GB (1973) and many more. The Chernobyl catastrophe has also led to considerable genetic effects of ionizing radiation resulting from fallout dispersed over large parts of Europe in spring and summer 1986. In early 2011 the worst case scenario of Fu- kushima, Japan occurred. This catastrophe urgently requires support by methodological evaluation. In a recently performed study it could be demonstrated that even under normal running conditions nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland showed some shifts in the sex odds hence genetic effects. Environmental health effects which are found and studied so far are among others: cancers, leukemia, stillbirths, Down syndrome and other birth defects, as well as shifts in human sex odds. Mathemati- cal statistical methods must be sound and understandable in order to explain the danger of ionizing radiation and draw conclusions and consequences out of the data. So, in this session we will focus on the methodological aspects of the evaluation of environmental and human health effects of ionizing radiation. Topics: Data processing, data evaluation methods, software, DSS, environmetrics and environmental informatics with respect to ionizing radiation.

49 Stream B

Wed 4 • 11:10 am | Kubus 2B Session B3

Stream B: Human Health and Environmental Risks B3 Current trends in software developments for environmental pollution modelling B3B1A2 Kristina Voigt & Stefan Reis Topics of the session: Environmental models, environmental software, DSS, environmetrics, environmental informatics with respect to environmental pollution, environmental pollution modelling. Models and software are major tools for the description, simulation, evaluation, estimation as well as future prevention and control of pollution. Pollution is the introduction of contaminants like e.g. pesticides, heavy metals, air pollutants, greenhouse gases, nano-particles, oil etc. into a natural environment causing instability, disorder, harm or discomfort to the ecosystem (i.e. physical systems) or living organisms. The focus of this session is on transmission, fate and effects of contaminants in air, water and soil. Models and software for the following types of pollution are presented: Air pollution: the release of chemicals and particulates into the atmosphere. Common gaseous pollutants include carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrogen oxides produced by fossil fuel combustion and other activities. Secondary pollutants such as tropospheric ozone or aerosols are created as primary pollutants react and mix in the atmosphere. Water pollution by the discharge of wastewater from commercial and industrial waste (intention- ally or through accidental spills) into surface waters; discharges of untreated domestic sewage, and chemical contaminants (organic and inorganic chemicals), from treated sewage; release of waste and contaminants into surface runoff flowing to surface waters (including urban runoff and agricultural runoff, which may contain chemical fertilizers and pesticides); waste disposal and leaching into groundwater; eutrophication and littering. Soil pollution occurs when chemicals are released by spill or leakage. Among the most significant soil contaminants are hydrocarbons, heavy metals, MTBE, herbicides, pesticides and chlorinated hydrocarbons. New model and software developments or the adaptation and combination of existing environmental models will be presented. The characteristics of the countries, regions and environmental regula- tions will also be taken into account and discussed.

50 Stream C

Session C1 Thur 5 • 9 am | Kubus 112

Stream C: Mitigation of and Adaption to Climate Change B3B1A2 C1 Climate change and agriculture – modelling impacts, exploring adaptation op- C1 tions, identifying conflicts Annelie Holzkaemper, Robert Finger & Juerg Fuhrer What are the impacts of climate change on agriculture? How can farmers adapt their management? Could management adaptations induce conflicts with other landscape functions? Agriculture utilizes a large proportion of the planet’s land surface and provides, besides food and fibre production, many other important functions and services such as soil conservation, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, or recreation. Climate change is likely to affect these functions in different ways. Yield potentials could increase with increasing temperatures, but may be limited by water availability especially during the summer months. Farmers will have to adapt their land use and management to cope with climate change under variable economic development and political constraints. Such adaptation measures could create synergies, but could also induce new conflicts with environmental objectives and thus need to be evaluated carefully. For example, conservation tillage combined with direct sowing could reduce the risk of erosion while at the same time being a profit- able adaptation to drought through improved soil water retention. Conversely, expanding irrigation could induce conflicts with other water users and with environmental targets such as surface water quality and aquatic biodiversity as the dilution of pollutants is reduced with declining water levels due to water extraction, and oxygen solubility declines with increasing temperatures. Additional pressure on water quality could result from increased runoff of nutrients, sediments and pesticides from agricultural fields. This session focuses on modelling approaches to assess impacts of climate change on agroecosystems and their functions and to explore implications of adaptation measures. Topics: • Assessment of climate change impacts on agroecosystems and related uncertainties • Exploration of strategies to adapt agriculture to climate change • Investigation of trade-offs and synergies related to adaptation measures in land management.

51 Stream C

Tue 3 • 2:30 pm | 7.1 SR 301 Session C2

Stream C: Mitigation of and Adaption to Climate Change C2 Modelling the effectiveness and efficiency of REDD+ C2B3B1A2 Daniel Mueller & Zhanli Sun Projects aimed at reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation or the enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) are promising and cost-effective pathways to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. REDD+ activities provide incentive payments that aim to reduce the pressure on forest resources and related carbon stocks. But to date it is unclear how REDD+ mechanisms can best deliver beneficial outcomes with regard to understanding and monitoring the impact on climate effectiveness, cost efficiency, equity and co-benefits. Knowledge of the decision- making processes that lead to changes in land use is prerequisite to understand the likely impacts of REDD+ payments on the drivers of forest carbon emissions and to provide reasonable estimates of future emission levels. Modelling approaches can generate a better understanding of land-use decision making and provide crucial insights into the setting of historic and future baselines, the monitoring of leakage, the verification of additionality, and the assessment of likely co-benefits of REDD+. We welcome interdisciplinary contributions from a variety of modelling disciplines including, but not limited to, agent-based Modelling, machine learning approaches, statistical analysis, and participatory simulations. All applications are supposed to target existing or prospective REDD+ schemes and to investigate forest and land use transitions with integrated human-environment data. We expect participants to include assessments of past developments and the likely future trajectories in light of the incentive payments. The session will thus bring together a number of state-of-the-art applications from diverse geographic settings that help better understanding the likely impacts of REDD+ payments on the drivers of forest carbon emissions and to provide reasonable estimates of future emission levels. Session Keynote: Impacts of REDD+ in complex landscapes Ole Meertz, University of Copenhagen So far most research, projects and guidelines on REDD+ have focused on reducing emissions from the first D (deforestation), but much less on the second D (degradation) and the + (enhancing forest carbon stocks). Will REDD+ be successful if implemented only in parts?

52 Stream C Wed 4 • 11:10 am & Session C3 Thur 5 • 9 am | Kubus 1CD

Stream C: Mitigation of and Adaption to Climate Change C2B3B1A2 C1 Data sets and model components for an integrative assessment of climate C3 strategies Georgii Alexandrov, Gianni Bellocchi, Mark Borsuk, Francois Gillet & Dominik Reusser Many countries (and even multinational corporations) have adopted strategies to combat climate change. The strategies are normally categorized into the strategies for mitigation of climate change and the strategies for adaptation to climate change. The mitigation strategies are to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and to enhance carbon sinks. The adaptation strategies are to protect agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, and transportation infrastructure from the risks associated with climate change. The purpose of this session is to review data sets and model components that could be used in an integrative assement of either mitigation or adaptation strategies.

53 Stream D D1.1: Mon 2 • 11:10 am | 1.0 L.Hall D1.2: Tue 3 • 11:10 am | 4.0 SR 102 Session D1.1 • D1.2

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects D1.1 Uncertainty analysis – environmental model application James C. Ascough II, Holger Maier & Olaf David The purpose of this session is to provide a forum for presentations focusing on communicating state- of-the-art information on advances in uncertainty analysis methodologies for integrated environmental models. Suitable uncertainty analysis (UA) topics for this session include, but are not limited to: • Evaluation of uncertainty in model outputs with respect to decision making or risk management objectives • Uncertainty propagation in complex, environmental models with large parameter sets or high computational requirements • Assessing and quantifying information requirements (e.g. theories, data, models) to reduce predictive uncertainty in environmental models • Scale effects in UA of integrated environmental models • Methods for identifying and managing structural uncertainty and bias in integrated environmental models.

Uncertainty analysis – general frameworks, data and decision support D1.2 Jack Carlson, James C. Ascough II, Olaf David & Holger Maier The purpose of this session is to provide a forum for presentations focusing on communicating state- of-the-art information on advances in uncertainty analysis methodologies for general frameworks, data and decision support. Suitable uncertainty analysis (UA) topics for this session include, but are not limited to: • Evaluation of uncertainty with respect to decision making or risk management objectives • Incorporation of uncertainty in decision support methods, such as multi-criteria decision analysis • Development and evaluation of UA methods that appropriately consider subjective and qualitative factors • Assessing and quantifying information requirements (e.g. theories, data) to reduce predictive uncertainty in environmental models • Assessment of uncertainty in socio-economic models.

54 Stream D

Session D1.3 Wed 4 • 11:10 am | 1.0 L.Hall

Sensitivity analysis D1.3 Holger Maier, James C. Ascough II & Olaf David The purpose of this session is to provide a forum for presentations focusing on communicating state- of-the-art information on advances in sensitivity analysis methodologies for integrated environmental models. Suitable sensitivity analysis (SA) topics for this session include, but are not limited to: • Practical strategies for local/global SA given models with large parameter sets or high computational requirements • The use of SA to gain insights into key sources of uncertainty in order to prioritize additional data collection or research efforts • Key criteria in selecting SA methods for different Modelling structures and problems • SA in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and • Limitations and promising new advances/directions for SA methodologies in environmental models.

D1.3

55 Stream D

Thur 5 • 9 am | Kubus 1B Session D2

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects D2 Distributed environmental modelling Ari Jolma, Karl Aberer, Phillip C. Dibner, Kostas Karatzas & Mike Sips Modelling is a process that involves articulation of the goals, understanding the domain reality, selection of methods and tools, integration, and eventually testing of the model and interpretation of the results. A lot of modelling work is moving into the Internet in the sense that baseline data, real-time measurements, and computational resources are becoming available over the Internet, collaboration is carried out by email and increasingly by interactive websites, and many tools are being exposed to users on the Internet. Service-orientation is becoming the leading paradigm for developing information systems and infrastructures. Models, many steps of the modelling process, and the modelling process itself can be implemented as or aided by services provided by software on the Internet. These services can be targeted to programs or to humans and they can be based on almost any computational method. New generic web browser based technologies including free libraries for many kind of data make highly interactive and visual tools relatively easy to implement and publish. There are many general distributed systems issues that need to be considered from the point of view of environmental modelling: search, trust, linking of services, semantic interoperability, and so on. For this session we seek case studies, descriptions of novel service concepts, theoretical considerations, and other contributions, which demonstrate or give new insights into how modelers can be better interact with each other, use and create services in the Internet, and help decision makers.

56 Stream D D3.1: Tue 3 • 11:10 am Sessions D3.1 • D3.2 D3.2: Thur 5 • 9 am | Kubus 2B

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects Advances in software engineering for IEM – D3.1 D3.1: Methods and approaches D3.2: Applications and use cases D3.2 both lead by Olaf David, Sven Kralisch, James C. Ascough II & Peter Krause The purpose of this session is to provide a forum for presentation and discussing approaches, methods, techniques, platforms, and general advances in software engineering beneficial for integrated environmental modelling. Therefore, this session is specifically dedicated to software methods and approaches for integrated modelling. Session topics include (but are not limited to): design patterns, environmental modelling framework design approaches, design and use of domain specific languages (DSLs), workflow engines, model testing, model/framework integration and coupling approaches, advanced methods for integrated models such as parallelization techniques, services integration methods or cloud computing.

57 Stream D

Mon 2 • 11:10 am | 7.1 SR 201 Session D4

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects D4 Characterising environmental modelling paradigms (Bayesian networks, system dynamics, agent based models, coupled complex models and expert systems) Tony Jakeman, Olivier Barreteau, Mark Borsuk, Carlo Giupponi, Rebecca Kelly, Andrea Rizzoli, Barbara Rob- son, Sondoss El Sawah & Alexey Voinov A range of model types now exists for such purposes as scientific understanding, prediction, communication, social learning, and environmental decision making. Each type has strengths and weaknesses in any given situation which we classify, at the very least, according to purpose, breadth and depth of issues being addressed, level of spatial and temporal detail required, type of input data available and outputs required (eg quantitative versus qualitative), capacity to address uncertainty and assess model credibility, and capacity for effective communication and social learning. In many cases models are chosen without good reason, and often model choice is determined simply by the existing skills of the modeller involved. This becomes especially limiting in a participatory modelling effort, where stakeholders in many cases do not have sufficient knowledge and understanding to make an informed selection and may be easily persuaded by modelling results. The aim of this linked session and workshop (directly after this session in the same room) is to characterise and compare the various paradigms using the above ‘metrics’ so that better guidance is available for future model selection. Other metrics for classification can also be considered. The Session’s presentations and accompanying full papers would describe one or more modelling approaches and be structured according to the metrics above. The organisers also welcome prior application of modelling paradigms to a set of common case studies they are setting up for the purposes of comparative analysis. The session will begin with the presentation of a position paper currently in preparation and initially drafted by Rebecca Kelly and Tony Jakeman but being updated by the organisers. This conference PP will be published in the proceedings and revised after the conference for publication in EMS as a journal PP.

58 Stream D

Session D6 Tue 3 • 11:10 am | Kubus 1B

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects Geographic Information Systems and geoprocessing workflows for environmental modelling D6.1 D6.1: GIS Based Workflows D6.2: GIS Hydro-Climate Analysis D6.2 D6.3: GIS Web Services & Systems D6.4: GIS Land-Surface Analysis D6.3 D6.5: GIS Spatial Temporal Analysis all lead by Daniel P. Ames, Robert Argent, Susan Cuddy, Nigel W.T. Quinn & Raul Zurita-Milla In September 2000, the 4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modelling D6.4 (GIS-EM4) was held in Banff, Canada with more than 250 presentations. In the ensuing 12 years no major “GIS for Environmental Modelling” meeting has been held in spite of: • Significant advances in both GIS software and hardware computational capabilities D6.5 • Advent of a veritable tidal wave of accessible geospatial data sets • The introduction of an entirely new breed of GIS software (characterized by Google Earth and Google Maps) and the accompanying rise of the so-called “neogeographer” • The establishment of major geospatial data sharing standards through OGC and related bodies (e.g. WFS, KML) and • The introduction of a several highly functional free and open source GIS software tools and libraries (e.g. as sponsored by OSGeo). This session of iEMSs 2012 recognizes all of these advances as well as the natural role of iEMSs in encouraging, promoting, and facilitating continued advancements in the application of GIS software and tools to environmental Modelling. While any novel and interesting studies in the arena of GIS for environmental modelling will be considered for presentation in this session, we are particularly interested in the development and application of geoprocessing workflows, use of free and open source GIS, web-based GIS applications, tightly coupled GIS-based environmental models, GIS-based environmental decision support systems, geospatial data services, geoprocessing semantics, GIS integration technologies, and related topics.

59 Stream D Tue 3 • 4:30 pm & Wed 4 • 11:10 am | 7.1 SR 201 Session D7

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects D7 Third session on data mining as a tool for environmental scientists (S-DMTES-2012) Karina Gibert, Miquel Sanchez Marre, Joaquin Izquierdo, Ignasi Rodriguez-Roda, Geoff Holmes, Serena Chen, Antonio Ciampi & Ioannis Athanasiadis This session is strongly linked with W-DMTES-2012, fourth iEMSs DMTES workshop (D12), and aims to approach and to promote the interaction between the environmental sciences community to the data mining community and related fields, such as artificial Intelligence, Statistics or other fields to discuss the contribution of data mining techniques to knowledge discovery in environmental sciences, as well as to make data mining techniques more accessible to environmental modellers and to give data miners and developers a better idea of the needs and desires of the environmental community. The workshop will introduce interested parties to a range of data mining techniques and a selection of software packages. We also invite submissions of papers and presentations of interesting applications of data mining to environmental problems. New or improved techniques or methods are welcome, as well as innovative applications. Particularly welcome in this edition, contributions related with applications where it was not easy to find the right data mining technique for getting good results. For this particular contributions, please include details on unsuccessful models and the possible reasons for bad performance in the particular application addressed.

60 Stream D

Session D11 Mon 2 • 11:10 am | Kubus 1B

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects Ecological modelling and networks D11 Brian Fath, Caner Kazanci & Ursula Scharler Ecosystems are complex adaptive systems. In order to effectively understand and manage these systems it is important to utilize models and analyses that can capture their holistic nature. This session will present papers dealing with use of process-based ecological models and networks, with specific attention given to various methodologies. Specifically, network methodologies which can be used to investigate the indirect relations, both quantitatively and qualitatively, between components of a complex system will be discussed and applied. Model applications to terrestrial, aquatic, and integrated socio-ecological systems will be considered. Topics include, but not limited to: • Food web dynamics • Biogeochemical cycles and models • Agent based ecological and socio-ecological models • Resilience or collapse of ecological networks • Ecological community relations (i.e., mutualism, predation, competition, etc.). Keywords: Ecological Modelling, Ecological Network Analysis, Socio-ecological systems, resilience.

61 Stream E

Mon 2 • 11:10 am | Kubus 1A Session E1

Stream E: Participatory Modelling and Stakeholder Involvement E1E1 The role of models in governing transition processes towards sustainable resource management Johannes Halbe, Dominik Reusser, Claudia Pahl-Wostl & Jan Sendzimir Over the past decades, the vision of a sustainable resource management emerged in the scientific community and the public at large. The design properties characterising “sustainable” resource management systems are still debated and the delineation of pathways towards sustainability and the implementation of associated measures are challenged by uncertainty as well as structural barriers and conflicts among affected stakeholders. The influence of environmental authorities to steer the management of resources in a sustainable direction is especially limited when multiple actors have an effect on the resource base. This session will address the role of models in the governance of transition processes towards sustainable resource management. Can model based understanding of past transitions support practical decision-making? Are model-based diagnoses of current resource management problems helpful to identify barriers and drivers of change, and to deal with conflicting interests and world-views? Can explorative models help to define management strategies and pathways towards sustainability?

62 Stream E Tue 3 • 11:10 am & Session E2 Wed 4 • 11:10 am | Kubus 1A

Stream E: Participatory Modelling and Stakeholder Involvement Understanding human-environment interactions through modelling and stakeholder participation – E2.1 E2.1 Case study research: analyzing environmental conditions together with stakeholders to improve the system’s performance E2.2 Developing, improving and testing methods together with stakeholders, using case study examples E2.2 E2.3 Developing new concepts and frameworks to integrate stakeholder knowledge and activities in modeling efforts E2.3 all lead by Peter Valkering, Heleen Vreugdenhil, Francois Bousquet, Jörg Krywkow, Geeske Scholz, Alexey Voinov Understanding human-environment interactions is vital for developing more robust, flexible, and pro-active environmental policy. To this end, there is much interest in integrated modelling, assuming that linking models, modules, and components produces more functionality and better understanding of human-environment processes. At the same time participatory model development involving stakeholders has become a quasi standard approach in environmental modelling. Participatory modelling may be considered as an approach to integrate the knowledge of stakeholders with expert knowledge. Whereas computer modelling provides formalism, and the inclusion of the (prevailingly quantitative) scientific ‘facts’; stakeholder participation introduces (often qualitative) lay-knowledge and subjective stakeholder perspectives on the issues of concern. Notably, stakeholder participation is supportive to understand possible human response to environmental, societal, economic and technical development. In this session, we share experiences in approaches that combine modelling efforts such as ABM or system dynamics models, etc. with stakeholder participation to examine human-environment interactions including serious or policy gaming, scenario development (like the ‘storyline and simulation’ approach), participatory or companion modelling, and group model building. We discuss problems and challenges associated with combining various forms of knowledge (personal experience, group preferences, expert opinion, science-based knowledge, etc.). We welcome papers about diverse case studies pertaining to various application domains, geographical regions and scales. Particular questions to be addressed are: How can software tools in general and model integration tools in particular (including various levels of complexity and user-friendliness ranging from icon-based system dynamics tools to detailed GCMs) be coupled to assist stakeholder participation and knowledge integration? How to design and plan interactions among stakeholders and models? How to integrate stakeholder knowledge of various levels of complexity and detail, ranging from lay person’s opinions to informed expert opinion (for example through individual stakeholder consultation, stakeholder workshops, or through the Internet)? How to validate the observed human-environment dynamics, for example, through a cross comparison with historical cases stakeholder consultation, or a triangulation of methods - and what are quality criteria for the knowledge produced? How to promote produced knowledge in the policy arena? How can this knowledge contribute to societal learning (for example through the participation of decision makers or the public at large, or other knowledge dissemination activities)? How to package and present insights in a way that they are useful and informative to participants and decision makers? What type of policy relevant insights emerge from these studies into the nature of human-environment interaction? This session is linked with workshop E3 (Thursday, 9:00 am, Kubus lecture hall 2A). 63 Stream F Mon 2 • 11:10 am | 2.0 Wintergarden Session F1

Stream F: Ressource Management and Sustainability F1 Land-use and land-cover modelling: dealing with complexity Daniel Rutledge, Guy Engelen, Alexander Herzig, Jean-Luc de Kok, Fraser Morgan & Brendan Williams Land-use/land-cover modelling is increasingly playing a key role in helping to explore complex environmental issues in an integrated and holistic manner and address sustainable development on a finite planet. In particular land-use/land-cover change modelling by definition adds a spatial dimen- sion to such explorations, thereby helping frame important issues of distributional social justice such as the spatially heterogenous impacts of climate change. However land-use/land-cover models suffer from a number of limitations that limit their versatility and scope. The limitations relate to the con- tinuing tendancy to characterise land use and land cover as one would on a paper map, i.e. as a set of simple categories displayed in a non-spatially overlapping manner wheres in reality land-use and land-cover are much more rich and complex. Characterising and modelling land use and land cover in such a simple manner limits the types of questions one can ask and by extension limits the possible approaches to addressing persistently wicked problems such as those presented by sustainable development. The challenges lying ahead for policy, planning, and resource management across scales demand better approaches to characterising and modelling land use and land cover (e.g., multiple uses, functionality, ecosystem services, etc.) that overcome those limitations while at the same time becoming more useful and accessible to policy makers, planners and resource managers. This session seeks to bring together researchers with interests in land-use/ land-cover modelling to present emerging ideas, methods and techniques for advancing land-use/land-cover change modelling to overcome current limitations and better deal with the complexity found in the real world. We are open to any papers dealing broadly with the concept of complexity in land-use and land-cover modelling but especially desire papers that address one of the following four themes: 1. Ideas and methods for better characterising land-use/land cover 2. Techniques and algorithms to facilitate more complex modelling of land-use/land cover change 3. Approaches and solutions for making complex modelling of land-use/land-cover more tractable and accessible 4. Addressing/quantifying uncertainty in the face of increasing complexity. The session will be accompanied by a workshop F6 (Tuesday, July 3, 2:30 pm, building 2.0 (canteen), room “Blue Salon”) in which participants will discuss the benefits, drawbacks and challenges in more complex approaches to land-use/land-cover modelling.

64 Stream F Tue 3 • 11:10 am | Session F2 2.0 Wintergarden

Stream F: Ressource Management and Sustainability Sustainability assessment: quantitative indicators, models and techniques F2 Marina G. Erechtchoukova & Peter A. Khaiter Topic: quantitative methods for sustainability appraisal Sustaining the environment via maintaining its functions in order to provide economic growth and social needs becomes vitally important. Social sustainability is aimed at attaining social goals, including maximum consumption. Such simplified representation of societal development demonstrates that environmental, economic and social aspects of sustainability are interrelated and must be considered all together in decision and policy making. Sustainable development can be achieved through management activities which are based on sustainable decisions. To evaluate decision’s sustainability, it is necessary to evaluate and analyze values of current and future welfare outcomes. The latter makes application of models and mathematical tools unavoidable and explains the necessity to use quantitative indicators of sustainability. Currently used sustainability indicators describe mul- tidimensional aspects of sustainable development. However, these indicators are measured using in- compatible units and their evaluation requires data of different scales with various levels of aggregation, collected based on objective observations and measurements, as well as surveys and interviews reflecting subjective opinions of individuals. The session invites papers describing development and/or applications of quantitative methods for sustainability assessment, evaluation of current and future welfare, data requirements and uncertainty estimates of the results. The works related to evaluation of uncertainty in aggregate sustainability indices are of a particular interest.

65 F3.1: Wed 4 • 11:10 am & Stream F F3.2: Wed 4 • 4:30 pm > cont. Thur 5 | 9 am | 2.0 Wintergarden Session F3.1 • F3.2

Stream F: Ressource Management and Sustainability F3.1 Simulating environmental change – quality, quantity and validation: F3.1: Examples focusing on terrestial systems F3.2 F3.2: Examples focusing on hydrological aspects both lead by Joerg Priess, Subhashree Das & Christian Schweitzer “Managing Resources of a Limited Planet” requires the adaptation to changing biophysical environments as one of the key aspects. Many studies have already demonstrated that we changed large frac- tions of the terrestrial surface. While the processes associated with these transformations are mostly well known, it is still a major challenge to simulate them quantitatively – a prerequisite to adequately assess environmental as well as related socio-economic impacts of ongoing or future human activities and/or climate change. We emphasise the need for accurate representations of environmental change in studies of socio-environmental systems, as its dynamics may take effect over e.g. one order of magnitude (concentrations, rates) and require different actions or adaptation measures in the human domain. In this session we invite papers explicitly addressing environmental changes (such as GHG-emissions, erosion, soil properties, water fluxes and quality, etc.) related to different types of land-use activities or naturally occurring processes. We especially encourage submissions of regional scale studies, but also welcome studies from larger (e.g. continental) or smaller scales (e.g. small catchments). Validat- ing environmental changes for larger regions or longer periods is an ongoing challenge – hence, we highly welcome presentations picking up this problem.

66 Stream F Mon 2 • 4:30 pm & Session F5 Tue 3 • 11:10 am | 1.0 L. Hall

Stream F: Ressource Management and Sustainability Understanding ecosystem services, multi-functional land use, trade-offs and F5 uncertainty David Miller, Iain Brown & Keith Matthews Topic: quantitative methods for sustainability appraisal Land and the ecosystems it supports underpin the provision of food, fuel, clean water and air and cultural experiences that provide for human livelihoods and well-being. The provision of these goods is supported by ecosystem functions such as climate regulation, nutrient cycling, protection from dis- ease and natural hazards, collectively referred to as ecosystem services. These in turn create a platform on which economic activity occurs, governance regimes are built, resource use is negotiated, land management decisions are framed and lives are lived. However, Ecosystem Services are threatened, globally and locally, by high levels of consumption, ecosystem degradation, biophysical and social change, and natural disasters. Realising the potential of land to deliver more provisioning services at the same time as protecting and enhancing regulating, supporting and cultural services is recognised as a significant challenge facing public policy makers, and private sector land managers. An interdisciplinary evidence base combining biophysical and socio-economic research is key to delivering multiple objectives from land use, including food security, energy, biodiversity, water management, soil quality, biodiversity, and responses to climate change (mitigation and adaptation). The focus of this session will be directed towards identifying the scientific understanding of the likely significance of pressures for change in relation to different land use sectors, and the potential implications of uncertainty on transition pathways. Papers will be encouraged which consider issues of: 1. Implications of uncertainty in modelling (e.g. spatial, social) on transition pathways of land use change and trade-offs between ecosystem services 2. Understanding interactions between multi-functional land uses, and certainty in modelling of land’s potential for supporting different ecosystem services 3. The communication of statistical and geographical distributions of impacts, and the perception and communication of risks to ecosystem services of pressures for change. Output: journal papers drawn from the conference session and on topics elicited from the session and associated workshop. In particular, a refereed paper on the position statement around the topic of ecosystem services, trade-offs and uncertainty. The Environmental Modelling journal, and Journal of Land Use Science will be approached with a proposal for submissions. This session is linked with the workshop F7 (Thursday, July 5, 11:20 am, Building 2.0, Wintergarden).

67 Stream G G1.1: Thur 5 • 9 am G1.2: 11:20 am | 7.1 SR 201 Sessios G1.1 • G1.2

Stream G: Knowledge, Data and Semantic Processing for Environmental Research G1.1 Analysis of data of remote sensing data for environmental models – with special emphasis on “remote sensing” Isabelle Herlin, Roberto San Jose, Steffen Unger & Dan Zachary Data of different scales and sources play a big role for building and running mesoscale environmental models. They serve as input data to model runs, build the basis for the models themselves and for their validation. Thus methods for deriving the necessary parameters, input values and validation characteristics are of increasing interest to enhance the quality of simulation results. This session addresses methods and tools from informatics to process and analyze these data with respect to their use in mesoscale environmental models. Particular topics are: • Remote sensing techniques • Uncertainty analysis of data • Aggregation of data of scales smaller than mesoscale to perform high quality and sustainable parametrization of processes modeled, in particular for surface characteristics • Analysis of data from a global scale as drivers and boundary conditions for mesoscale models • Statistical methods for data analysis • GIS based methods • Emission models • Coupling of models of different scales to mesoscale models to enhance performance of models • Tools and methods to automate resulting workflows of data gathering, analysis, model run, analysis of results, model based management and graphical representation. Integration of heterogeneous data and environmental models – G1.2 with special emphasis on “integration of data and models” Steffen Unger, Isabelle Herlin, Roberto San Jose & Dan Zachary Data of different scales and sources play a big role for building and running mesoscale environmental models. They serve as input data to model runs, build the basis for the models themselves and for their validation. Thus methods for deriving the necessary parameters, input values and validation characteristics are of increasing interest to enhance the quality of simulation results. This session addresses methods and tools from informatics to process and analyze these data with respect to their use in mesoscale environmental models. Particular topics are: • Remote sensing techniques • Uncertainty analysis of data • Aggregation of data of scales smaller than mesoscale to perform high quality and sustainable parametrization of processes modeled, in particular for surface characteristics • Analysis of data from a global scale as drivers and boundary conditions for mesoscale models • Statistical methods for data analysis • GIS based methods • Emission models • Coupling of models of different scales to mesoscale models to enhance performance of models • Tools and methods to automate resulting workflows of data gathering, analysis, model run, analysis of results, model based management and graphical representation.

68 Stream G

Session G3 Mon 2 • 11:10 am | 4.0 SR 102

Stream G: Knowledge, Data and Semantic Processing for Environmental Research Semantics and the environment G3 Andrea Rizzoli, Ioannis Athanasiadis, Sasa Nesic & Ferdinando Villa The “Semantics and the environment”-session aims to collect contributions addressing the various challenges and expected developments posed by the application of semantic technologies to the environmental sector. Among such issues we list: the use of semantics to facilitate search and discovery of environmental resources; the linked open data approach to support interlinking of environmental data on the internet; the role of semantics in integrated modelling efforts. Because of the diversity of possible application areas,Monday, we expect sub-sessions July to be spun 2 off of this general theme.

69 Stream H

Mon 2 • 11:10 am | Kubus 1CD Session H2

Stream H: Socio-Environmental Systems H2 Human decisions in agent-based models for natural resource use Birgit Mueller, Juergen Groeneveld & Nina Schwarz Agent-based models (ABM) allow investigating the influence of human decisions on macro-scale pattern in coupled social-ecological systems (SES). In recent studies very different starting points are used for the representation of decision making in SES models: based on theory (psychological, economic or sociological), on empirical observations or on rather ad-hoc decision making models. Consequently, quite different aspects are considered, e.g. uncertainty and attitudes towards risk, past experiences, behaviour of other agents, limited availability of information (bounded rationality, heu- ristic decision making) and alternative income possibilities. This listing illustrates a variety of options exists, likely influencing the outcomes of a simulation study. Thus, attention needs to be paid to the specific decision making process that is part of ABM’s in SES. This session will seek to stimulate discussion around a number of challenges, including: appropriate consideration of uncertainty in the decision making process, decision making on multiple levels, decision model validation and in particular the development of a comprehensive protocol for documentation of the implementation of decisions in ABM’s for natural resource use. Pending the number and coverage of papers submitted, a dedicated special issue publication in an appropriate journal is intended. This session is followed by a corresponding workshop H6 (Wednesday, July 4, 11:10 am, building 7.1, room 301) which aims at synthesising results and work towards such a comprehensive protocol for documentation.

70 Stream H

Session H3 Tue 3 • 11:10 am | Kubus 1CD

Stream H: Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling responses to shocks in coupled socio-ecological systems H3 Tatiana Filatova & Gary Polhill Coupled socio-ecological systems are complex systems, consisting of many heterogeneous interacting elements. Such systems are characterized by non-linearities and feedbacks: even a small change in one component can cause sudden abrupt change at the system level. Shocks in environmental systems include regime shift as a result of gradual ecosystem degradation, and natural hazards such as floods or droughts, chances of which increase significantly with climate change. Shocks in socio-economic systems comprise such phenomena as economic crises or social unrest. Abrupt shocks either in the ecological or socio-economic subsystem may disturb the whole structure of the coupled system altering the flow and strength of the feedbacks. At the same time complex socio-ecological systems are constantly adapting to changes and evolving over time, so the consequences of the abrupt changes either in ecological or socio-economic subsystems for the adaptive dynamics of coupled system are not immediately obvious. Models that can help exploring, studying and predicting the responses of coupled socio-ecological systems to shocks are consequently in demand. This session aims to bring together scholars using formal (i.e. mathematical or computational) models to study responses to shocks in complex socio-ecological systems. The range of questions this session focuses on includes: • Case studies of analysis of shocks to socio-ecological systems in the past • Predictions from scenarios of shocks to contemporary socio-ecological systems • Abstract models studying shocks to coupled social and environmental systems • Models of adaptive individual behavior and/or structural behavioral changes in response to environmental shocks, with a special focus on changes due to changing climate • Methodological approaches to conducting such work. The session is co-sponsored by the Global Land Project and the ESSA Special Interest Group on Spatial and Ecological-Economic issues. We plan to consolidate the best presented papers and outcomes of the discussion in a special issue of a journal (to be determined based on the scope of the submissions).

71 Stream I

Mon 2 • 11:10 am | Kubus 2A Session I1

Stream I: Issues in Water Resources Management I1 Environmental fluid mechanics – theoretical, numerical and experimental approaches Carlo Gualtieri, Petra Amparo Lopez Jimenez, Dragutin T. Mihailovic, Nils Mole & Bert Blocken Environmental Fluid Mechanics (EFM) is the scientific study of transport, dispersion and transformation processes in natural fluid flows on our planet Earth, from the microscale to the planetary scale. Stratification and turbulence are two essential ingredients of EFM. Stratification occurs when the density of the fluid varies spatially, as in a sea breeze where masses of warm and cold air lie next to each other or in an estuary where fresh river water flows over saline seawater. Turbulence is the term used to characterize the complex, seemingly random motions that continually result from instabilities in fluid flows. Turbulence is ubiquitous in natural fluid flows because of the large scales that these flows typically occupy. The processes studied by EFM greatly affect the quality of natural ecosystems. For this session papers reporting observational, experimental, numerical and theoretical investigations would be welcome. So the Session will be organized in two parts: theoretical and numerical aspects (Part 1) and applicative, software and experimental issues (Part 2). This session could tentatively cover the following topics: • Diffusion, turbulent dispersion and mixing of environmental contaminants in natural and engineered water systems and in the atmosphere • Processes at the environmental interfaces in soil, atmosphere and natural waters • Turbulent flows • Nonlinear processes in environmental fluid mechanics • Two-phase and multiphase flows • Stratified flows • Transport of water and chemicals in the soil • Water quality processes in surface and sub-surface systems.

72 Stream I I2.1: Wed 4 • 2:30 pm & Sessions I2.1 • I2.2 I2.1: Thur 5 • 9 am | 4.0 SR 102

Stream I: Issues in Water Resources Management Water management and planning – I2.1 I2.1: Models for unique institutional, economic and geographic contexts I2.2 I2.2 I2.2: Tools and methods for making decisions with uncertainty and complexity both lead by Julien Harou, Andrea Castelletti, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez & Ejaz Qureshi Water scarcity is forcing a re-evaluation of water resource planning and management strategies in many regions. New strategies for developing and managing water resource systems at regional and national scales are required given population growth, economic development, growing environmental concern and the nonstationarity of future hydrology and the hydrologic extremes. Regional water management and planning issues almost invariably require some customization of existing software tools, models and planning frameworks. In this session we look at a range of water management tools that have been customized for particular contexts. We focus on unique institutional, economic and political contexts, in addition to geographic or hydrological considerations. Hydro-economic models, trans-national resource modelling, planning under multiple sources of uncertainty including institutional uncertainty, integrated models that consider human or institutional agents, adapting to climate, land use and other changes will be covered in addition to a range of other topics. Presenters will be asked to emphasize what features of their tools, models and frameworks made them ideal to study a particular context. Are they flexible and adaptable, could such tools be ported and applied in a different context? Generally this session will seek to advance the tools, software and methods of advanced regional water resource planning and management.

73 Stream I Wed 4 • 4:30 pm & Thur 5 • 9 am | 1.0 L. Hall Session I3

Stream I: Issues in Water Resources Management I3 Application of scenarios to support national and international environmental policies to govern freshwater resources Ilona Baerlund & Katri Rankinen Mathematical modelling is currently being used in order to simulate the effect of changing environmental and socio-economic conditions on hydrology, sediment and nutrient transport and water quality. The ability of models to abstract natural and human behaviour driven processes and to look into a possible future make them useful tools for scenario applications. The aim of most scenario studies so far has been to study impacts of one driving force e.g. either of climate or land-use or socio-economic change. As these driving forces however are interconnected, scenario studies need to include all these factors jointly in order to support policy development and application. Hence this session is primarily seeking for papers that present examples of joint use of scenarios in national or international studies to estimate future development of water resources and their quality. Further, interesting features include the analysis of successful downscaling of global scenarios to regional studies and how the scale of catchment modelling affects the use of scenarios as input information. Also examples of cooperation between end users and modellers in supporting policy applications are welcome.

74 Stream I

Session I4 Wed 4 • 11:10 am | Kubus 2A

Stream I: Issues in Water Resources Management Bridging the gap – monitoring and modelling strategies for improving process I4 knowledge and environmental management Martin Volk & Ann van Griensven Models are used since decades for simulating the impact of land and water management on hydrology, sediment and nutrient transport and water quality. However, they are still mostly used by scientific institutions, and not “directly” in environmental management. In addition, finding the appropriate monitoring strategy to capture hydrological and nutrient dynamics and to support the modelling procedure is still a challenge. On the other hand, new measurement techniques, remote sensing methods and models have been developed during the last years that are promising to improve this situation. Hence, talks of this session will present • Innovative monitoring strategies that support both process investigation and model performance (and vice versa), and • Model systems based on appropriate monitoring strategies and used in environmental management. (Both studies from experiments and experimental sites linked to relevant authorities as well as more pragmatic approaches.)

75 Stream I

Tue 3 • 11:10 am | Kubus 2A Session I5.1 • I5.2

Stream I: Issues in Water Resources Management I5.1 Use of models for integrated management of urban water systems I5.1: Urban Wastewater Systems I5.2 I5.2: Water Supply Systems Lluis Corominas, Joaquim Comas & Peter Vanrolleghem The aim of this session consists in the creation of a discussion platform for researchers involved in the development and application of modelling for the integrated management of urban water systems (UWS). More specifically, the session would present the last trends in system-wide modelling (mechanistic, data-driven, etc) and the techniques used to calibrate and validate these models (Bayesian, multiobjective optimization, etc). On the other hand, this session will highlight the importance of models in integrated management to successfully implement the Water Framework Directive (WFD), to achieve good ecological and chemical status of receiving water bodies. The WFD also highlights sustainability as an important driving force to manage UWS, whereas in the US Triple-Bottom-Line (TBL) assessments are increasingly part of decision-making in water systems. Therefore, this session also is open to presentations about new

models (green house gas emission models, e.g. N2O and CH4 generated in sewer systems, wastewater treatment plans and rivers), new paradigms (e.g. ecosystem-based management) and methodologies (e.g. Life Cycle Assessment) required to address sustainability. The translation of environmental protection objectives into different types of legislative structures and norm systems (statistical effluent limit definitions) is also attracting attention. Thus, this session will present contributions aiming at improving the use of currently available models to solve environmental problems.

76 Stream A

Workshop A4 Wed 4 • 2:30 pm | 7.1 SR 301

Stream A: Environmental Information-, Decision Support-, and Software Systems Defining interaction design for environmental information systems A4 Daryl H. Hepting, Steven Frysinger & Markus Wrobel The aim of this workshop is to foster exchange of experiences on appropriate interaction design for environmental informatics (or enviromatics). The application of information and communication technology (ICT) to the environment grows in importance as the health of our planet gains priority on research agendas. Ultimately, environmental information must be put into people’s hands so that they can make decisions. The potential benefits of enviromatics as a tool for policy decisions and education will not be fully realized if people cannot meaningfully access the necessary information. How best to involve stakeholders, so that they can transform data into the information they need and put it to use in a satisfying manner, remains a topic of inquiry around which this workshop is focused. Interaction design must be an integral part of the architectural plan for enviromatics systems. How do we best employ metaphor in educating users and influencing their mental models? What are the ethical concerns involved and how can they be addressed? How can the hurdles to usability evaluation of enviromatics systems be overcome? Contributions are sought that explore how interaction design and human computer interaction can be put into the specific context of environmental modelling and software. When is it appropriate to draw on and apply existing knowledge to environmental informatics, and when must new approaches be developed for environmental information systems? As the field of enviromatics matures, it is important to move beyond generic statements about user-friendly interfaces to specific methods and approaches to ensure that the intended users are satisfied with their experience with software and that they can accomplish what is needed. Topics include, but are not limited to: • Usability analyses • Decision psychology • Task analyses (including, for example, decision support) • Validation of ICT tools • Human-computer interface design • Human performance evaluation. This workshop is linked with session A1 “Interaction design for environmental information systems” (Wednesday, July 4, 11:10 am, Building 4.0, room SR 102).

77 Stream D

Mon 2 • 4:30 pm | 7.1 SR 201 Workshop D8

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects D8 Comparison of and guidelines for environmental modelling paradigms Tony Jakeman, Olivier Barreteau, Mark Borsuk, Andrea Rizzoli & Alexey Voinov This workshop follows on from its associated session. Please see that session D4 description (session D4: Monday, July 2, 11:10 am, building 7.1, room SR 201 (just before this workshop starts, same room). The Workshop will be structured by the organisers to address already identified key issues as well as ones that emerge from the associated session itself, with the aim of preparing an excellent EMS PP. The organisers also welcome prior application of modelling paradigms to a set of common case studies they are setting up for the purposes of comparative analysis.

78 Stream D

Workshop D9 Mon 2 • 2:30 pm | 7.1 SR 301

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects The Community for Integrated Environmental Modelling (CIEM): D9 Current status and future direction Gerry Laniak & Gene Whelan At the 2010 iEMSs conference a workshop entitled “Web Portal for the Community for Integrated Environmental Modelling” was presented. The goals of the workshop were to introduce the CIEM web-portal (iemHUB.org) to the wider modelling community, obtain feedback and comments, and encourage its use as a key resource for sharing knowledge and technologies related to IEM. Since the Ottawa conference both the CIEM and the web-portal have progressed in important ways, including the convening of an international summit for integrated environmental modelling and advancements to the appearance and functionality of the web portal. As a community of communities the CIEM shares interests, goals, and activities with many other communities of practice (e.g., iEMSs, CSDMS, CUASHI, ISCMEM), each of which has a focus on a topic of particular relevance to IEM. Several important interactions with these communities have taken place. The goals of this workshop are to: • Review the latest developments of the CIEM, other closely related communities, and the iem- HUB web portal • Discuss and compile specific goals and activities to further increase the awareness and value of CIEM and • Discuss how CIEM and other related communities can further coordinate and collaborate to strengthen the overall value and use of IEM. Related to these goals the following key questions will be discussed: • How can the CIEM better facilitate the exchange of IEM science and technology across the international community? • What formal/informal relationships between CIEM and other communities should be pursued (e.g., discipline specific communities)? • How can the iemHUB web-portal better serve the needs of the community? • What social and technical issues related to IEM should CIEM address and what outcomes would be desired?

79 Stream D

Thur 5 • 11:20 am | Kubus 1A Workshop D10

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects D10 Complex problems, simple answers, difficult solutions Alexey Voinov & Ralf Seppelt Scientist, society and politicians become aware, that although our understanding of environmental processes is increasing, yet our ability of taking the right decisions is still limited. For example, we already know much about the climate change and how it can impact our livelyhoods, we already see what are the possible conflicts due to limited resources such as food, energy and land, we already realize how loss of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning can be detrimental to our life-support systems - however, in all these cases we still cannot develop appropriate decisions to avoid or adapt to these changes. There are many examples when knowledge and understanding does not necessarily produce adequate reaction in form of policies or management strategies. We see that increasing complexity of models used for coping with the complexity of the systems we analyze, may not necessarily produce the kind of understanding that is appropriate for action. We may hypothesize that this is because we are treating complexity with complexity, while the real power of modelling is simplification and the ability to abstract to higher level of analysis, where the solutions may be easier to identify and communicate. According to Einstein “problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them”. By moving from one level of complexity to another, it may be easier to find solutions. For example, we already know what has to be done to solve the problem of climate change. What we do not know is how to make this happen. In this workshop we would like to focus on multi-hierarchical modelling, and look at systems that are studied in different levels of complexity to see how we can inform one hierarchical level with findings from another, and how we can move from one level of complexity to another. What are the key success stories of model applications that have been influential for sustainable resource use of communities? What have been the major caveats? How the model complexity was justified? How model complexity can be changed? How to move from one complexity level to another? We are at the crossroads, good ideas welcome.

80 Stream D

Workshop D12 Wed 4 • 4:30 pm | 7.1 SR 201

Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects First joint workshop on data mining and intelligent decision support systems D12 for environmental scientists (IV W-DMTES-2012 and IEDSS-2012) Karina Gibert, Joaquin Izquierdo, Miquel Sanchez-Marre, Ignasi Rodriguez-Roda, Rick Sojda, Geoff Holmes, Antonio Ciampi, Ioannis Athanasiadis & Joaquim Comas Fourth workshop on data mining as a tool for environmental scientists (D-DMTES-2012) and second workshop on intelligent environmental decision support systems for environmental scientists (IEDSS-2012). This workshop (W-DMTES-2012) aims to provide a global perspective of the complete and complex process of transforming raw data into really useful decisional knowledge in environmental domains. Data mining processes transforms the data into relevant information, and permits to induce decision knowledge from it, even taking into account the doctrinae corpus in the target domain, when available. Intelligent decision support systems can use this knowledge to provide rational support to the complex decision making process in front of high levels of uncertainty, multifactors influences and, eventually, different experts opinions. The combination of both disciplines provides highly powerful tools in better knowledge of environmental systems as well as better control and management. This joint workshop is in close connection with session A3 (S-DMTES-2012: Monday, July 2, 11:10 am, building 2.0, “Blue Salon”) and session D7 (S-IEDSS-2012: Wednesday, July 4, 11:10 am, building 7.1, room SR 201), and pretends to promote the interaction among the Environmental Sciences, the Data Mining and the Intelligent Decision Support Systems communities and related fields, to discuss the joint contribution of data mining techniques and intelligent decision support systems to knowledge discovery in environmental sciences, as well as to make both data mining techniques and Intelligent Decision Support Systems more accessible to environmental modellers and to give data miners and knowledge engineers a better idea of the needs and desires of the environmental community. Authors were invited to submit abstracts to this workshop, in which a short number of 5 minutes presentations will be chosen in order to deliver maximum time to global discussion. Participants in S-DMTES-2012 and/ or session S-IEDSS-2012 are specially invited to take active participation in this workshop.

81 Stream E

Thur 5 • 9 am | Kubus 2A Workshop E3

Stream E: Participatory Modelling and Stakeholder Involvement E3 Understanding human-environment interactions through modelling and stakeholder participation: integrating models and stakeholders Peter Valkering, Heleen Vreugdenhil, Francois Bousquet, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jörg Krywkow, Geeske Scholz, Alexey Voinov Understanding human-environment interactions is vital for developing more robust, flexible, and pro-active environmental policy. To this end, there is much interest in integrated modelling, assuming that linking models, modules, and components produces more functionality and better understanding of human-environment processes. At the same time participatory model development involving stakeholders has become a quasi standard approach in environmental modelling. Participatory modelling may be considered as an approach to integrate the knowledge of stakeholders with expert knowledge. Whereas computer modelling provides formalism, and the inclusion of the (prevailingly quantitative) scientific ‘facts’; stakeholder participation introduces (often qualitative) lay-knowledge and subjective stakeholder perspectives on the issues of concern. Notably, stakeholder participation is supportive to understand possible human response to environmental, societal, economic and technical development. In this workshop, we share experiences in approaches that combine modelling efforts such as ABM or system dynamics models, etc. with stakeholder participation to examine human-environment interactions including serious or policy gaming, scenario development (like the ‘storyline and simulation’ approach), participatory or companion modelling, and group model building. We discuss problems and challenges associated with combining various forms of knowledge (personal experience, group preferences, expert opinion, science-based knowledge, etc.). We welcome papers about diverse case studies pertaining to various application domains, geographical regions and scales. Particular questions to be addressed are: How can software tools in general and model integration tools in particular (including various levels of complexity and user-friendliness ranging from icon-based system dynamics tools to detailed GCMs) be coupled to assist stakeholder participation and knowledge integration? How to design and plan interactions among stakeholders and models? How to integrate stakeholder knowledge of various levels of complexity and detail, ranging from lay person’s opinions to informed expert opinion (for example through individual stakeholder consultation, stakeholder workshops, or through the Internet)? How to validate the observed human-environment dynamics, for example, through a cross comparison with historical cases stakeholder consultation, or a triangulation of methods - and what are quality criteria for the knowledge produced? How to promote produced knowledge in the policy arena? How can this knowledge contribute to societal learning (for example through the participation of decision makers or the public at large, or other knowledge dissemination activities)? How to package and present insights in a way that they are useful and informative to participants and decision makers? What type of policy relevant insights emerge from these studies into the nature of human-environment interaction? This workshop is linked with session E2 (Tuesday, July 3, 11:0 am, Kubus lecture hall 1A).

82 Stream E

Workshop E4 Thur 5 • 2:30 pm | Kubus PC Pool Stream E: Participatory Modelling and Stakeholder Involvement Community mapping and empowerment: A hands-on workshop/tutorial with E4 actual village data and simplified villageQGIS software Nagesh Kolagani The goal of the workshop is to give participants an understanding of what the map requirements of village communities are for carrying out participatory watershed management and how to meet these requirements. Participants will be given actual sample data of various village features (spatial GPS data and non-spatial attribute data). Using our open source simplified ‘villageQGIS’ software, they will prepare maps and then try to generate various views that might interest a village audience to visualize and participate better.

83 Stream F

Tue 3 • 2:30 pm | 2.0 Blue Salon Workshop F6

Stream F: Resource Management and Sustainability F6 Advancing land-use and land-cover modelling: enhancing complexity Daniel Rutledge, Guy Engelen, Alexander Herzig, Jean-Luc de Kok, Fraser Morgan & Brendan Williams This workshop follows-on from the session F1. Its purpose is to provide a forum to discuss and debate the challenge and merits of more complex approaches to land-use/land-cover modelling that were presented in the companion session. We will organise the workshop into five sections: one section for each of the four themes discussed in the session (1. ideas and methods for more complex characterisation, 2. techniques and approaches for facilitating more complex modelling, 3. approaches and solutions for increasing tractability and accessibility, 4. addressing complexity) and a final synthesis session. We may also modify the themes on the day based on the outcomes of the session and desires of the participants. For each section we seek a willing participant who will agree to summarise the relevant papers presented at the start of the section and then lead a round-table discussion of the authors of the relevant papers. In discussing those themes, we will consider a range of critical questions that cut across them. While the full range of questions will emerge during the session, some key a priori questions include: 1. When are more complex approaches warranted? How much complexity is “enough”? 2. Do we have the data needed? If not, how can we start to collect/collate it? 3. Will more complex approaches improve our shared knowledge and understanding or lead to more fragmentation and lack of comparability/synthesis? 4. How do we communicate more complex approaches to policy makers, planners, resource managers, communities, etc. without overwhelming them? During the synthesis section participants will discuss options for disseminating the findings of the combined session and workshop, ranging from the production of a single synthesis paper in a relevant journal to a collected body of work such a section in a journal or perhaps a book.

84 Stream F Thur 5 • 11:20 am | Workshop F7 2.0 Wintergarden

Stream F: Resource Management and Sustainability Understanding ecosystem services, multi-functional land use, trade-offs and F7 uncertainty for policy support and land management David Miller, Iain Brown & Keith Matthews Background Stakeholders in land use and the ecosystem services (ES) it supports are increasingly obliged to consider the implications of pressures for change on the management of our natural resources. Policy- makers in many countries have a public responsibility to take account of environmental, social and cultural demands whilst seeking to deliver food, fuel, fibre and well-being from limited natural resources. However, there are gaps in the scientific evidence base for sustainable use and management of all land and the ecosystem services and functions it supports, and in stakeholder understanding of the implications of uncertainty when in receipt of models of potential impacts. Such gaps include perceptions of risks and appreciation of uncertainty, and the factors (e.g. trust, costs/benefits, control) that influence those perceptions; impacts of different pathways of change on ecosystem services, and account being taken of dependencies of one set of ecosystem service(s) on another when planning changes in land use. Aim The aim of the workshop is to identify scientific themes, in conjunction with the linked conference session F5 (Monday, July 2, 4:30 pm in building 1.0, lecture hall, and cont. on Tuesday, July 3, 11:10 am, same place) on ‘Understanding ecosystem services, multi-functional land use, trade-offs and uncertainty’. In particular, the is on the implications for strategic planning of public policy, and the potential effects on land managers and those responsible for the protection and enhancement of ecosystem services. The workshop will be run to try and elicit generic lessons relevant to different land-use sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, renewable energy, biodiversity, recreation, urban planning), or different target audiences (e.g. national or regional strategy, local authority planner, land manager). Participants are encouraged to prepare for the workshop, considering the requirements of a land use sector or audience type (e.g. policy officer, organisation responsible for managing land, planners, or general public) from their experience or area of the world. Outputs It is proposed that an output from the workshop is the development of a position paper, the author- ship of which will be invited from those expressing an interest in the combined session and workshop. The paper will draw on participant discussions regarding key weaknesses in the support available to policy-makers, public sector agencies, and private land managers on the understanding of the pressures of change on ecosystem services, and the implications of uncertainty in model outputs when seeking to future-proof decisions on planning land uses. For the benefit of public bodies, a set of science briefs will be developed. These will comprise 1 or 2 page summaries of key issues associated with land-use sectors and ecosystem services, and target audience. It is proposed that these will be made available by the conference WWW and by participants in the workshop and associated conference session.

85 Stream G

Thur 5 • 11:20 am | 7.1 SR 301 Workshop G4

Stream G: Knowledge, Data and Semantic Processing for Environmental Research G4 Machine learning for environmental data: concepts, applications, and software Mikhail Kanevski, Alexei Pozdnoukhov & Vasily Demyanov There is a growing demand for new analytical and processing environmental observation and monitor, analyse and to model spatio-temporal data streams. These tools can be provided by Machine Learning (ML), which is a general and powerful field for processing and nonlinear robust modelling of complex high dimensional data. The workshop will present the basic concepts underlying a wide range of conventional ML algorithms and provide the cutting-edge data analysis, modelling and visualisation tools: • Artificial neural networks: multilayer perceptrons, radial basis function networks, general regression and probabilistic neural networks • Self-organizing Kohonen maps • Support vector machines and other kernel-based methods. Real case studies from environmental a variety of problems, like pollution, climate, natural hazards, renewable resources and other fields of applications will be outlined focusing on the software tools used. The workshop will be useful both for the beginners and advanced researchers and users. Work- shop deliverables are: tutorial slides, detailed “how-to-do-it” case studies, software tools, sample datasets.

86 Stream G

Workshop G5 Tue 3 • 11:10 am | 7.1 SR 301

Stream G: Knowledge, Data and Semantic Processing for Environmental Research The future of semantic technologies in environmental research G5 Andrea E. Rizzoli, Sasa Nesic, Tomas Pariente-Lobo & Gerald Schimak This “Semantics and the environment”-workshop and wants to develop a discussion on how environmental research will be impacted by semantic technologies in the near future. What are the challenges, where are the major obstacles, and what are the expected outcomes? The output of the workshop should be a research agenda for the next four years, identifying the most promising application areas of semantics for environmental sciences. The workshop participants are welcomed to bring their own case studies to be discussed and analysed during the workshop short presentations.

87 Stream H

Thur 5 • 11:20 am | 1.0 L. Hall Workshop H4

Stream H: Socio-Environmental Systems H4 Opportunities and challenges of modelling for resilience thinking and ecosystem stewardship Maja Schlueter, Karin Frank & Birgit Mueller Resilience thinking is a perspective for the analysis of the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems (SES) in a changing world. It emphasizes the role of feedbacks between social and ecological systems across temporal and spatial scales in determining SES resilience, adaptability and transformability. Ecosystem stewardship is an approach for the application of resilience thinking to practical problems in natural resource management. Its focus on coping with uncertainty and surprise con- stitutes a paradigm shift in ecosystem management with consequences for evaluation and design of management strategies and institutions – as well as the analytical frameworks they are based on. Models have so far mainly been used to enhance ecological resilience by optimizing the management of multi-stable ecosystems subject to anthropogenic disturbance. Only few studies genuinely take feedbacks between social and ecological dynamics into account to address the two other aspects of resilience thinking, namely adaptability and transformability. Yet, we argue that there is a large potential of models to address those issues that have not been fully exploited yet. In this workshop we want to discuss this potential, including the opportunity to make use of a diversity of model types, to improve the link to case study research, and to use models in a larger context of theoretical and empirical research. We also want to critically reflect on the challenges associated with SES Modelling. We will provide a position paper on models for resilience thinking and ecosystem stewardship re- viewing the state of the art of resilience modelling and discussing opportunities and challenges to enhance the use of models for resilience as an input to the discussion. We invite comments addressing this potential and associated challenges. We are particularly interested in contributions that use models at the science-policy interface in e.g. participatory processes to support societal processes of adaptation and transformation as well as theoretical work that enhances the scientific foundation of social-ecological resilience.

88 Stream H

Workshop H5 Thur 5 • 9 am | 7.1 SR 301

Stream H: Socio-Environmental Systems On processes, patterns and interactions of urban shrinkage – H5 how do we approach a challenging spatial development using models? Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Sigrun Kabisch, Dieter Rink & Nina Schwarz Both modellers and social scientists attempt to find better understandings of complex urban systems. Such understandings include explanations of development paths, underlying driving forces and the expected impacts of such systems. So far, research on cities or urban regions has predominantly focused on urban growth. However, new challenges have arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the social sciences. Urban research has rarely addressed shrinkage in the form of population decline and its spatio-temporal effects, but that phenomenon has become increasingly widespread in Europe, the US and Japan. Despite enormous progress in the modelling of urban systems, a gap between social science knowledge and urban modelling still exists. Therefore, we intend to set urban shrinkage into the focus of this session and follow-up workshop. We want to discuss the challenges that urban shrinkage brings about for modelling with particular respect to the cooperation between modellers and social scientists. While the session will set the theoretical scene and gather expertise from different origins, the workshop intends to discuss key questions and to elaborate the gathered expertise further to come to a positioning paper. The workshop is linked with session H2 (Monday, July 2, 11:10 am, Kubus lecture hall 1CD) and will be organised in breakout groups discussing different topics/questions: 1. What is the best modelling approach - SD, CA, Network, Econometrics or ABM? 2. What are challenges/specifics of urban shrinkage as a subject for modelling? 3. Governance issues: multi-ABM figuring coalition building, cooperation, exclusions, inclusions, lack of capacities etc. 4. Summary in the “plenary” and 5. Preparation of a positioning paper for ENVSOFT.

89 Stream H

Wed 4 • 11:10 am | 7.1 SR 301 Workshop H6

Stream H: Socio-Environmental Systems H6 Human decisions in agent-based models (ABM) for natural resource use – need for protocols Birgit Mueller, Juergen Groeneveld & Nina Schwarz The workshop will draw upon the presentations given in the corresponding session H2 (Monday, July 2, 11:10 am, Kubus lecture hall 1CD), which aims at getting a state-of-the art overview on: How are decisions modelled in ABM’s for natural resource use? Which factors, interactions, and feedbacks are included? Which decision rules are used with which reasoning (theoretical justification, empirical observations)? We intend to discuss in the workshop how to overcome obvious weaknesses of a large part of models (such as the lack of a protocol for documentation of the decision making processes, missing reasoning on why which decision model is used and a missing link to theory, weak empirical support for the decision model used and incomplete list of model assumptions). To close this gap, it is aimed to develop a comprehensive protocol for describing decisions in ABM’s for natural resource use and summarize open challenges for the future. The discussion will be launched by a position paper available in January 2012. It aims at summarizing in a structured way the necessary information that should be provided in the model description of decision making processes in ABM’s for natural resource use (including aspects as uncertainty, dependence of behaviour of other agents, learning). It is inspired by the ODD-protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models (Grimm et al. 2006), but will focus here on the decision making aspect. The workshop will be organized in two parts, consisting of a series of standpoint presentations (each five-minute long) followed by a round table discussion and aimed at modifying, integrating and improving the position paper (protocol), which will result in a collaborative paper. Potential contributors were invited to submit an extended abstract of their planned communication. Selected participants will be invited to contribute as co-authors to the synthesis paper to be published in an appropriate journal. Statements: Quang Bao Le, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Relevant theoretical and empirical aspects for considering human decision-making represented in agent- based models for natural resource management James Millington, King s College London, UK; David O’Sullivan, George Perry, University of Auckland, NZ Narrative explanation of agent decision-making Dawn Parker, University of Waterloo, Canada Using the “MR POTATOHEAD” decision model template to describe developer, buyer, and seller decision rules from the SLUCE2 agent-based Land Market Model

90 Stream J

Workshop J1 Tue 3 • 11:10 am | 7.1 SR 201

Stream J: Special Workshops for Young Academics Elsevier author workshop: getting published, getting cited in international J1 ecological scientific journals Sandra Broerse, Brian Fath & Tony Jakeman In this workshop, we provide an overview of the Elsevier publishing system including author services and latest trends in publishing (e.g., article based publishing, graphical abstracts, etc.). Furthermore, we – as editors – review some of the major features of publishing including choosing a journal, writing and revision tips, language, technical details, ethical issues and getting accepted. This advice is targeted toward young researchers to help them navigate the world of publishing and get quality articles that impact the field.

91 Stream J

Mon 2 • 11:10 am | 7.1 SR 301 Workshop J2

Stream J: Special Workshops for Young Academics J2 Writing scientific papers –10 biggest mistakes from a reviewer’s perspective Martin Volk & Sven Lautenbach Publishing papers in high ranked journals is gaining more and more importance in scientific society and is seen as one quality measure in science. Hence, it is important that students learn in an early stage how to successfully prepare papers and publish their work in scientific journals. In the workshop, we – as reviewers – will provide tips and recommendations on how to structure a manuscript and how to write it well. We will point out the 10 biggest authors’ mistakes that result in rejections of the submitted papers and answer related questions. We invite also other experienced reviewers to report on their experiences. The workshop is addressing primarily PhD students and young scientists. Recommended literature Wallwork, A., English for Writing Research Papers, Springer Science+Business Media 2011.

92 Stream J

Workshop J3 Tue 3 • 2:30 pm | 7.1 SR 201

Stream J: Special Workshops for Young Academics J3 Student and young researcher workshop / Meeting of young academics Anna Cord, Francesco Falcieri & Markus Stocker Knowing how to write a paper and how to get it published and cited are important tools in the box of the young academic. So is networking and getting to know other researchers, young and senior. The author of a paper related to your work could become more than a person’s name with an email address. The next project could emerge through discussions with a young researcher you will meet at this workshop. You might set in motion your peer’s postdoc by forwarding an open position. Join us for the student and young researcher workshop, and help us shaping the new iEMSs network for young academics. Our aim is to unite, discover, and improve. At the workshop we will shortly present how the network came into being and what its current form looks like. The informal setting will allows us to keep a round of introductions after which we would like to brainstorm on ideas, preferences, and needs. Do you tweet the papers you read? Do you blog about your research? Are you active on mailing lists? Is the group at your institution using wikis? How can we improve the information flow in our network? What services could it provide? How can we collaborate despite the distances? Should we collaborate? On what? Perhaps you have finally found that one data set, software, book, journal, or conference you have been searching for long; sharing a description and reference could save your peer’s time. Collectively we have been using more methods on more materials than individually; addressing your question to someone you know is experienced with the method that is new to you could lead to a sound answer, in no time. If you need more information you can contact us at [email protected]

93 Thur 5 • 9 am | Kubus PC pool Workshop TaToo

TaToo: bridging the discovery gap in environmental resources TT Gerald Schimak1, Giuseppe Avellino2, Sasa Nesic, Luca Petronziob3 & Andrea E. Rizzoli3 1AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Vienna, Austria | [email protected] 2Telespazio, Rome, Italy | [email protected], [email protected] 3IDSIA – Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Lugano, Switzerland [email protected], [email protected] TaToo is a EU funded project (http://www.tatoo-fp7.eu/) that aims at “bridging the discovery gap in environmental resources” on the Internet. The objective is to improve the quality of results for environmental related searches, thanks to an approach based on semantic annotations”, a sort of structured tagging applied to environmental resources such as web-services, datasets and databases, models and environmental software tools (Pariente et al. [2011]). The aim of the workshop is to present and discuss present an advanced version of the TaToo Frame- work and of its use in the context of three Validation Scenarios in the fields of climate change, agro- environmental modelling, and anthropogenic impact of pollution on human health. The workshop also aims at getting feedback from the potential users, therefore we will demonstrate the currently available prototypes and we will make some essential usability tests to better understand how to fine tune TaToo to the real world user needs. The workshop is thematically linked with session G3 (Monday, July 2, 11:10 am, building 4.0, seminar room 102). Semantics and the Environment of iEMSs 2012, which aims to collect contributions addressing the various challenges and expected developments posed by the application of semantic technologies to the environmental sector. Acknowledgements We acknowledge the contribution of Jan Peters-Anders (AIT, Austria), Marcello Donatelli (JRC Ispra, Italy), and Jirí Hrebícek with Miroslav Kubásek (Masaryk University, Czech Republic) for the presentation of the TaToo Validation Scenarios. The research leading to these results has received funding from the EC’s 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant Agreement Number 247893. References Pariente, T., M. J. Fuentes, M. A. Sanguino, S. Yurtsever, G. Avellino, A.E. Rizzoli, and S. Nesic. A model for Semantic Annotation of Environmental Resources: The TaToo Semantic Framework. In Proceedings of the 9th IFIP WG 5.11 ISESS 2011, volume 359, pages 419–427. Springer, 2011.

94 Review of

Abstracts and Papers Instead of a eulogy...

Dear session chairs, authors, reviewers, and everybody who ever got lost in our cm-system, Almost all delegates have been involved in the review process for the iEMSs 2012 abstracts, papers and presentations. We thought of writing an eulogy, however, finally we decided that a picture says more than a thousand words... and honestly:

Sometimes we felt like this...... and sometimes like this....

...but today we only feel like saying... THANK YOU for this great piece of work!

95 96 Mon • July 2

Conference Programme – List of Presentations

97 98 Programme Plenary • Session E1 Mon • July 2

Please note: The author who`s listet first is the presenter (the cm-system has defined the order in this way). You will find the correct order of authors in the proceedings pdf.

08:00 am Registration in the Kubus Foyer 09:00 am Greetings 09:15 am Using behavioral experiments to inform models of social-ecological systems Plenary Marco A. Janssen, Arizona State University, USA Kubus 1ABCD 10:00 am Regional climate simulations and example applications to assess future aquatic habitat and wildfire in Western North America Steven Hostetler1, Jay Alder1, Robert Al-Chokhachy2, 1Oregon State University, USA, 2US Geological Survey, USA 10:45 am Coffee break 11:10 am Start of 12 parallel sessions on the UFZ campus (there will be guides available who bring you to the session of your choice)

Session E1: The role of models in governing transition processes towards sustainable resource management Session E1 11:10 am | #550 | Formalizing conceptual modeling: An application to Orchard Mead- Kubus 1A ows in Baden-Württemberg Thorsten Arnold1, Kristine Hammel2, 1Drinking Water Source Protection, 2Persephone Market Garden & Agricultural consulting Stream E: Participatory To reduce complex conceptual models, we propose a framework that systemizes model Modelling and reduction and demonstrate it using a case study on orchard meadow decline in Southern Stakeholder Germany Involvement 11:30 am | #531 | The use of models to design pest suppressive landscapes for sustainable agricultural practice Session chairs: Hazel Parry1, Felix Bianchi2, Nancy Schellhorn1 , 1CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Indus- Johannes Halbe, trial Research Organisation), 2Wageningen University Dominik Reusser, We demonstrate how simulation models can be valuable assets in the transition process Claudia Pahl-Wostl towards sustainable agriculture. We take an empirical and interactive approach to model & Jan Sendzimir development, in order to engage key stakeholders and suggest realistic strategies for Integrated Pest Management in Australia. 11:50 am | #742 | Computer assisted dynamic adaptive policy design for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment Jan Kwakkel1, Marjolijn Haasnoot2, 1Delft University of Technology, 2Deltares We present an approach for sustainable long-term water management that combines the strong features of adaptation pathways and adaptive policy making, and show for an illustrative case how this synthesis can be supported through Exploratory Modelling and Analysis.

99 Programme Mon • July 2 Session E1

12:10 pm | #508 | An Integrated Assessment Metamodel for developing adaptation pathways for sustainable water management the lower Rhine Delta Marjolijn Haasnoot1, Willem van Deursen2, Hans Middelkoop3, Eelco van Beek1, Nanda Wijer mans3, 1Deltares , 2Carthago Consultancy, 3Utrecht University Exploring adaptation pathways into the future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. We are developing an Inte- grated Assessment Metamodel to generate pathways by simulating the dynamic interaction between impacts and policy reponse. 12:30 pm | #737 | Enhancing Stocks and Flows modelling to support sustainable resource management in low carbon infrastructure transitions Jonathan Busch, David Dawson, Katy Roelich, Julia Steinberger, Philip Purnell, University of Leeds I will describe the current development of an enhanced Stocks and Flows model designed to assess the vulnerability of low carbon infrastructure transitions to material criticality. The presentation will include a proof-of-concept case study to demonstrate the purpose and capabilities of the model. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #697 | A conceptual approach tackling the question: Can “bio”-fuels become a synonym for social progress in remote areas in Brazil? Wibke Avenhaus1, Dagmar Haase2, 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 2Humboldt University Berlin, UFZ Leipzig Brazil intends to include family farmers into the biodiesel production. To understand the dynamics caused by this goal interviews including cause maps were conducted in a rural area. The analysis shows that stakeholders’ perspectives vary a lot – probably one reason why the goal was partly failed. 2:50 pm | #576 | Collaborative modelling of the interdependence of mitigation, adaptation and development Dominik E. Reusser, Tabea Lissner, Raphael Lutz, Flavio Augusto Pinto Siabatto, Jürgen P. Kropp, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Managing the interdependence of climate mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development requires a good understanding of the dominant socio-ecological processes. We will discuss case studies from transitions research to verify such a related model and report on an ongoing collaborative modelling. 3:10 pm | #567 | Negotiated Outcomes – Actor-oriented Modelling of Energy Efficiency in a Stockholm City District Renewal Örjan Svane, KTH Royal Institute of Technology What if the Rinkeby-Kista renewal made it a 2 kW Society? We develop a model simulat-

ing actors’ decisions, outputs are in kW/person and CO2. A Usage Situation guides modelling, done upstream from Household Activities System to Energy Usage Systems. Simula- tions illustrate contrasting outcomes.

100 Programme Session E1 Mon • July 2

3:30 pm | #351 | A concept for the development of model indicators for policy makers to adapt German inland waters to climate change Annette Stosius, Sebastian Kofalk, Michael Schleuter, Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) Indicators are used for reducing complexity and for meeting user requirements. A scientific based formulation of indicators through a system and multi-model approach will enhance policy makers to assess the efficiency of adaptation measures to manage the impacts of climate change. h 3:50 pm End of Session E1 h 3:50 pm Coffee break

101 Programme Mon • July 2 Session D11

Session D11: Ecological modelling and networks Session D11 11:10 am | #672 | Modelling of ecosystem with different types of components aggre- Kubus 1B gation Eugeniya Giricheva, Institute for automation and control processes We offer several models of the Bering Sea ecosystem. In the models the system compo- Stream D: Model nents are aggregated in different ways.The system is considered as a closed and open Development, object. Simulation results showed that with increasing degree of aggregation dynamics Analysis and of the system becomes more balanced. Application: Methodological 11:30 am | #887 | Core Network Compartments: Relative importance of ecosystems Aspects players in moving energy through the system Ursula Scharler1, Brian Fath2, 1University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2International Institute for Ap- Session chairs: plied Systems Analysis Brian Fath, Caner Total energy requirements of ecosystems depend to 80% on flows from lowest trophic Kazanci & Ursula level groups (primary producers, detritus, bacteria), as calculated from average mutual Scharler information and flow diversity, rendering higher trophic level species (e.g. fish) unim- portant for ecosystem energy requirements. 11:50 am | #735 Instability of the exploited population with a simple age structure Oksana Revutskaya1, Efim Frisman2, 1Russian Academy of Sciences, 2Institute for Complex Analysis of Regional Problems We stated and investigated optimal harvesting problem in a simple age structure population. It is shown that there is a domain of population parameters, characterized by loss of optimal equilibrium stability, and the emergence of 2-cycles in spite of harvesting with optimal constant harvest rate. 12:10 pm | #695 | Dynamics of genetic structure of population with age structure during optimal harvest with constant quota Oksana Zhdanova1, Efim Frisman2, 1Russian Academy of Sciences, 2Institute for Complex Analysis of Regional Problems Ecological and genetic consequences of optimal equilibrium harvest with constant quota in uniform and two-aged populations have been considered. Optimal harvest may result in change in the dynamic mode of the system, and also in a considerable change in the genetic composition of the population. 12:30 pm | #725 | Mathematical model for number dynamics of populations with varying reproductive age Galina Neverova1, Efim Frisman2, 1Russian Academy of Sciences, 2Institute for Complex Analy- sis of Regional Problems We investigate a two-component model of population dynamics with seasonal repro- duction. Density-dependent regulation of number is realized by varying the puberty age. Analytical and numerical research of the model is made, the model is approved using data on the natural population number.

12:50 pm Lunch

102 Programme Session D11 Mon • July 2

2:30 pm | #877 | Ecological Flow Analysis of Network Collapse I: New methodology to investigate network collapse dynamics Brian Fath1,3, Elena Rovenskaya1,2, 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2Lo- monosov Moscow State University, 3Towson University This research builds on standard ecological network analysis techniques in order to investigate the impact of removing species (nodes) on the remaining of the network species. Results identify which nodes collapse has the most impact on other nodes. 2:50 pm | #882 | Ecological Flow Analysis of Network Collapse II: Indicators of ecosystem level vulnerability Elena Rovenskaya1,2, Brian Fath1,3, 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2Lo- monosov Moscow State University, 3Towson University Using donor-controlled, equations to describe network collapse, we systematically investigate the impact each species has on the survival or extinction of other species. We introduce vulnerability indicators and report the results for 18 ecosystem networks in literature. 3:10 pm | #1353 | Blueprint for a unifying framework for synthesis of aquatic ecody- namics Matthew Hipsey, The University of Western Australia Networks of connected aquatic systems characterise real-world river basins, but their complexity and interactions make it difficult to understand how they respond to pressures. This paper presents a blueprint to combine modelling approaches with sensor data to unravel biogeochemical pathways. 3:30 pm | #835 | A Stochastic Trout Population Model for Supporting Fish Management Colombe Siegenthaler - Le Drian1, Lukas Indermaur2, Armin Peter1, Peter Reichert1, 1Eawag, 2WWF Switzerland To understand the significant decrease of brown trout catches reported across Swiss rivers, a population model was developed few years ago. We will present an extended model that accounts for fish migration and for the empirical evidence of different mortal- ity rates of stocked and resident fish. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #696 | Assessment of phytoplankton productivity using satellite data for Peter the Great Gulf Oksana Zhdanova, Aleksandr Abakumov, Institute of Automation and Control Processes FEB RAS This work involves the mathematical modeling of complex marine ecosystem. The simulation results are used to estimate the biological productivity of Peter the Great Bay using data from satellite monitorin.

103 Programme Mon • July 2 Session D11

4:50 pm | #731 | Application of a metapopulation approach for analysis of space-time population dynamics (case study using ungulates) Oksana Revutskaya1, Matvey Kulakov1, Efim Frisman2, 1RAS, 2Institute for Complex Analysis of Regional Problems We research a model of space-time metapopulation dynamics based on a coupled map lattice. We use the metapopulation approach for quantitative analysis of migration activity for the wild boar and the red deer in Jewish Autonomous Region’s area. 5:10 pm | #911 | Automatic population counts for improved wildlife management using aerial photography Beril Sirmacek1, Martin Wegmann2, Cross Adam3, Hopcraft J. Grant C.4, Peter Reinartz1, Ste- fan Dech1, 1German Aerospace Center (DLR), 2University of Würzburg, 3University of Glasgow, 4Frankfurt Zoological Society For effective conservation management, it is important to provide accurate estimates of animal populations with certain time intervals. In order to bring a new solution to this problem, we propose a novel approach for counting animals from aerial images by using computer vision techniques. h 5:30 pm End of Session D11 h

104 Programme Session H2 Mon • July 2

Session H2: Human decisions in agent-based models for natural resource use Session H2 11:10 am | #436 | Good modelling practice: expanding the ODD model description Kubus 1CD protocol for socio-environmental agent based models Jürgen Groeneveld, Birgit Müller, Friedrich Angermüller, Romina Drees, Gunnar Dressler, Christian Klassert, Jule Schulze, Hanna Weise, Nina Schwarz, Helmholtz Centre for Environ- Stream H: Socio- mental Research – UFZ Environmental We present an extension of a standard protocol for model description ODD (Overview, Systems Design and Details) suggested by Grimm and colleagues (2006). Our extension explicitly addresses the needs to describe human decisions in agent-based models and to better Session chairs: link specific models to theory. Birgit Mueller, 11:30 am | #478 | Using social psychology theory for modelling farmer decision-making Juergen Groeneveld James Millington, Kings College London & Nina Schwarz To investigate the potential of social psychology theory for improving decision-making representation in agent-based models of natural resource use, we present a model that explicitly represents multiple, hierarchical farmer self-concepts. We explore dynamics of farmer identify and land-use change. 11:50 am | #599 | Social-ecological modelling with LARA: A psychologically well- founded lightweight agent architecture Ramón Briegel, Andreas Ernst, Sascha Holzhauer, Daniel Klemm, Friedrich Krebs, Aldo Mar- tínez Piñánez, University of Kassel Are you wondering about a psychologically plausible ABM architecture for policy simulation in real social-ecological systems? LARA offers such a flexible and lightweight framework by providing prefabricated components for decision process like perception, memory, and modes of decision making. 12:10 pm | #411 | Linking social simulation and urban water modelling tools to support adaptive urban water management Ifigeneia Koutiva, Christos Makropoulos, National Technical University of Athens We present the design of a conceptual framework for the analysis of water demand behaviour. The framework is evaluated through a modelling experiment, linking social simulation and urban water modelling tools, to explore the uptake of alternative domestic water technologies in the urban water system. 12:30 pm | #587 | Future dynamics of irrigation water demand in the farming landscape of the Venice Lagoon Watershed under the pressure of climate change Stefano Balbi, Sabindra Bhandari, Animesh Gain, Carlo Giupponi, Ca Foscari University of Venice Under the pressure of climatic change, the irrigation behaviour of the farmers play a crucial role for the sustainability of agriculture. A prototype agent-based model is developed to explore how farmers’ decisions, informed by climate services, affect water demand in the Venice Lagoon Watershed. 12:50 pm Lunch

105 Programme Mon • July 2 Session H2

2:30 pm | #610 | The implications of alternative developer decision-making strategies on land-use and land-cover in an agent-based land market model Dawn Parker1, Shipeng Sun2, Tatiana Filatova3, Nicholas Magliocca4, Qingxu Huang1, Dan- iel Brown2, Rick Riolo2, 1University of Waterloo, 2University of Michigan, 3University of Twente, 4University of Maryland, BC This presentation presents a new agent-based model of coupled land and housing markets. Moving beyond previous models, it incorporates developer agents who participate in both markets, and are heterogeneous with respect to risk perceptions, capital, and experience. 2:50 pm | #509 | The role of social interaction in farmers’ climate adaptation choice Rianne van Duinen, Tatiana Filatova, Anne van der Veen, University of Twente Dutch farmers will be flooded with droughts?! We present a conceptual model and the first implementation of an agent-based model to study the role of interaction in a farmer’s social network on adaptation decision-making, the diffusion of adaptation strategies and vulnerability of the sector. 3:10 pm | #726 | Human decision making for empirical agent-based models: construction and validation Grace Villamor1, Meine van Noordwijk2, Klaus Troitzsch3, Paul Vlek1, 1Center for Development Re- search (ZEF), 2World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), 3Institute for Economic and Computer Science While there are a lot of empirical agent-based models being applied for land use cover change, however, a clear and transparent way of describing the decision model is lacking or incomplete. This paper describes a construction of decision-making model using a process-based approach. 3:30 pm | #740 | Comparison of two common empirical methods to model land-use choices in a multi-agent system simulation of landscape transition: Implication for a hybrid approach Quang Bao Le1, Flávia F. Feitosa2, 1ETH Zurich, 2CCST – INPE Land-use choice models embedded in a human-environment systems (HES) must meet more requirements than those models in purely economic or psychological studies. We show a real-case, explicit and HES-relevant demonstration for comparative analysis of two modelling methods using a holistic framework. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #404 | A new BDI agent architecture based on the belief theory. Application to the modelling of cropping plan decision-making Patrick Taillandier1, Olivier Therond2, Benoit Gaudou3, 1UMR IDEES, 2Inra, 3IRIT, Université Tou- louse We propose a new architecture based on the BDI (Belief-Desire-Intention) paradigm and on the belief theory. An application of our agent architecture for an actual model dedicated to cropping plan decision-making is presented.

106 Programme Session H2 Mon • July 2

4:50 pm | #767 | Landscape Management Framework (LMF) – development and application of a new concept for a dynamic landscape management model David Windhorst, Philipp Kraft, Hans-Georg Frede, Lutz Breuer, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen Accounting for human behavior under imperfect information - promoting the concept of a newly developed landscape modeling framework as a way to facilitate and ease the consideration of land use and management actions. 5:10 pm | #759 | Combining socio-economic and ecological modelling to inform natural resource management strategies Johannes Heinonen, Justin Travis, Stephen Redpath, Michelle Pinard, University of Aberdeen We present a concise review of existing literature on ecological and socio-economic modelling and approaches at the interface of these fields followed by a framework coupling an individual-based ecological model with an agent-based socio-economic model. h 5:30 pm End of Session H2 h

107 Programme Mon • July 2 Session I1

Session I1: Environmental fluid mechanics – theoretical, numerical Session I1 and experimental approaches Kubus 2A 11:10 am | #441 | Experimental and Computational analysis of microscale wind environmental conditions in the Port of Rotterdam Wendy Janssen1, Bert Blocken1, Herm Jan van Wijhe2, 1Eindhoven University of Technology, Stream I: Issues 2Port of Rotterdam in Water Resourc- Knowledge of microscale wind conditions is important for maneuvering and mooring es Management of ships and for optimizing the harbor design. The aim of this study is to translate the macroscale wind conditions measured at a near shore reference station to the local mi- Session chairs: croscale wind conditions in the harbor docks. Carlo Gualtieri, Petra Amparo 11:30 am | #555 | Cloud detection and analysis using LAPS system Lopez Jimenez, Borovoj Rajkovic, Jelena Markovic, Belgrade University Dragutin T. LAPS is very efficient system for meteorological analysis based on uni-vriational optimal Mihailovic, interpolation. Software for decoding, transforming radar data in the format used by LAPS Nils Mole & during ingest process has been written. Bert Blocken 11:50 am | #490 | A computational study on the influence of urban morphology on wind-induced outdoor ventilation Rubina Ramponi, Bert Blocken, Eindhoven University of Technology First results towards a parametric study on the influence of urban morphology on outdoor ventilation rate are presented. CFD simulations are made for four urban models of increasing density and the influence of the urban density on the outdoor ventilation rates is discussed. 12:10 pm | #507 | An Essay about the Functional Time of Environmental Interfaces Regarded as Complex Biophysical Systems Dragutin T. Mihailovic, Igor Balaz, University of Novi Sad First, we shortly elaborated the issue of time in physics and biology and then we considered the term of functional time. Further, we described a model for signaling in process of energy exchange between environmental interfaces (EIs). Finally, we established a functional time barcode. 12:30 pm | #842 | Applying the Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods of the Spatial Interpolation on the Mapping the Annual Precipitation in Bosnia and Her- zegovina Nusret Drešković, Samir Đug, University of Sarajevo The main contribution of this work is that after implementation the the Ordinary Krig- ing procedure of spatial interpolation, each grid cell, with 20 x 20 m resolution, has its associated values for amount of precipitation. We disscussed the gave the new annual pluviometric regime of BH. 12:50 pm Lunch

108 Programme Session I1 Mon • July 2

2:30 pm | #650 | Contribution of river-bed interfaces to running water quality by cou- Session chairs: pling modelling and in situ measurements Carlo Gualtieri, Sabine Sauvage1, José-Miguel Sanchez-Perez1, Magali Gerino2, Philippe Vervier3, 1Centre Na- Petra Amparo tional de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS),2 Université Paul Sabatier de Toulouse, 3Acceptables Lopez Jimenez, Avenirs Dragutin T. Mihailovic, Investigations deal with quantifying biogeochemistry fluxes at the surface and sub-sur- Nils Mole & face interface of rivers by integrating complex processes linked to fluid mechanics, biol- Bert Blocken ogy and chemistry and by coupling modeling approaches and field experiments. 2:50 pm | #1011 | Application of CFD methods to the upgrading of a contact tank Carlo Gualtieri, University of Napoli Federico II The paper presents the results of a CFD study undertaken to upgrading the hydraulic efficiency of the contact tank of the wastewater treatment plant of Nola-Marigliano. The study demonstrated that CFD methods can be applied to improve the hydraulic performances of contact tanks. 3:10 pm | #675 | Simplified modelling of pollutant transport in stratified groundwater aquifers Robert McKibbin, Amjad Ali, Winston Sweatman, Massey University Chemical species such as dissolved pollutants are dispersed by the fluid flow in groundwater aquifers. These are typically composed of strata with different properties and varying thicknesses. Simplified mathematical models that account for all of the variability are described; examples are shown. 3:30 pm | #704 | Turbulence structure and coherent motion in a straight laboratory flume Donatella Termini, University of Palermo In the present paper analyses are based on experimental work carried out in a straight channel, constructed at the laboratory of the Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambien- tale ed Aereonautica - Palermo’s University (Italy), for two different roughness conditions of the side-walls. 3:50 pm Coffee break Session chairs: 4:30 pm | #396 | Air pollutant dispersion from a large semi-enclosed stadium in an Carlo Gualtieri, urban area: high-resolution CFD modelling versus full-scale measurements Petra Amparo Bert Blocken, Twan van Hooff, Eindhoven University of Technology Lopez Jimenez, High-resolution CFD simulations and full-scale measurements have been performed Dragutin T. to assess the dispersion of air pollutants from the Amsterdam ArenA stadium. The CFD Mihailovic, simulations compare favorably with the measurements in terms of CO2 concentration Nils Mole & decay after the concerts. Bert Blocken

109 Programme Mon • July 2 Session I1

4:50 pm | #500 | Sustainability indicators for river water quality in urban areas Carlo Gualtieri1, Petra Amparo López Jiménez2, 1University of Napoli Federico II, 2Universidad Politécnica de Valencia This paper suggests an integration between the outputs from river water quality models and the sustainability concept. After a presentation of five widely applied water quality models, sustainability indicators for river water quality are discussed and a list of suitable indicators is proposed. 5:10 pm | #494 | DM2: a Software Tool for Dredged Material Characterization and Man- agement Alla Khosrovyan1, Araceli Rodríguez-Romero2 , Angel DelValls1, Inmaculada Riba1, 1Univer- sity of Cadiz, 2Institute of Marine Sciencies of Andaluzia The work presents a software tool for integrated sediment quality assessment. The tool has several competitive advantages which are believed to encourage the user to use it: simple interface, lack of “how to use” instructions. Software use will be demonstrated as well. 5:30 pm | #401 | Large-Eddy Simulation of pollutant dispersion in downtown Mon- treal: Evaluation of the convective and turbulent mass fluxes Pierre Gousseau1, Bert Blocken1, Ted Stathopoulos2, GertJan van Heijst1, 1Eindhoven Univer- sity of Technology 2Concordia University Gas dispersion from a building roof in Montreal is simulated with CFD, for two wind directions. The convective and turbulent mass fluxes are evaluated. Similarities are found with dispersion around a cubical building, which supports the investigation of environmental processes for generic cases. h 5:50 pm End of Session I1 h

110 Programme Session B1 Mon • July 2

Session B1: Modelling social and environmental determinants of human and ecosystem health Session B1 11:10 am | #1004 | Methods for the assessment of human health impacts from air pol- Kubus 2B lution based on monitoring data, atmospheric dispersion model results and contex- tual data in Scotland Stefan Reis1, Susanne Steinle1, Fintan Hurley2, Hilary Cowie, 1Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Stream B: Human 2Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) Health and Envi- Quantitative modelling for the assessment of ecosystem & human health effects requires ronmental Risks the integration of a variety of datasets into a consistent and comprehensive framework. The work described in this paper elaborates on the challenges and presents the develop- Session chairs: ment of methodologies to overcome these. Stefan Reis & #11:30 am | 827 | Classification-driven air pollution mapping as for environment and Susanne Steinle health analysis Stefan Wiemann, Silke Richter, Lars Bernard, Pierre Karrasch, Johannes Brauner, Katharina Pech, Stefan Wiemann, TU Dresden This article presents an air pollution modelling approach and its use in health applications within the EO2HEAVEN project. It is kept flexible and simple and thus, suitable to be used within a Spatial Data Infrastructure to provide access to real-time air pollution information via the internet. 11:50 am | #751 | A fast air quality model using Look-up tables to address integrated environmental assessment model requirements Lara Aleluia Reis1, Daniel Zachary1, Bernhard Peters2, Laurent Drouet1, Lara Aleluia Reis, 1CRP Henri Tudor, 2University of Luxembourg The LEAQ integrated assessment model works in optimization mode. Thus a fast air quality model was developed. We have implemented a fast photochemical module on the AUSTAL2000 model, using LUTs and quasi-linear reaction coefficients. The time required for the air quality model is satisfactory. 12:10 pm | #1131 | Ontology-Based Approach to the Discovery of Human Health and Environmental Risks Assessment Jiri Hrebicek, Ladislav Dusek, Jiri Kalina, Miroslav Kubasek, Jana Klanova, Ivan Holoubek, Masaryk University The paper introduces web portal GENASIS with its analytical tools. They significantly enhance understanding of validated data and information resources about the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the environment, their impacts on human health and enabling environmental risks evaluation. 12:30 pm | #222 | Developing a conceptual model for the assessment of personal exposure to air pollution Susanne Steinle1, Stefan Reis1, Clive Sabel2, 1Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2University of Exeter To improve the understanding of individual exposure to air pollution, all potential interactions of people and their environment in time and space must be considered. For this purpose a conceptual model integrating time-geography with environmental, contex- tual and epidemiological data is developed.

111 Programme Mon • July 2 Session B1

12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #440 | Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool Miguel Villarreal, Laura Norman, William Labiosa, Miguel Villarreal, U.S. Geological Survey Using coupled social-ecological models we identify temporal and spatial distributions of socially vulnerable communities and ecosystem services. Our results show remarkable relationships between the two and provide information to identify conservation targets that enhance livelihoods and ecosystems. 2:50 pm | #939 | A Computer System for Forecasting Malaria Epidemic Risk Using Re- motely-Sensed Environmental Data Michael Wimberly1, Ting-Wu Chuang1, Geoffrey Henebry1, Yi Liu1, Alemayehu Midekisa1, Paulos Semuniguse2, Gabriel Senay3, Michael Wimberly, 1South Dakota State University, 2Health, Development, and Anti-Malaria Association, 3USGS Earth Resource Observation and Science (EROS) Center We developed a computer application to automatically acquire and process remote sensing data and model malaria epidemic risk in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Malaria epidemics were associated with antecedent climatic anomalies, providing the scientific basis for developing an early warning system. 3:10 pm | #591 | Multi-Modelling approach for assessment of water quality in the Lower Havel, Germany Claudia Lindim, Annette Becker, Helmut Fischer, Claudia Lindim, Federal Institute of Hydrol- ogy (BfG) Algae growth control in the Lower Havel focus on P. But just reducing P is not enough to improve its ecological condition. Would a combined reduction of N + P give better results? What if we manipulate N? An integrated multi-modelling approach answers these questions and provides management options! 3:30 pm | #670 | Modeling Dietary Intake of Arsenic and the Associated Human Health Risk for People Living in Rural Bangladesh Nasreen Khan1, David Bruce2, Gary Owens2, 1The Australian National University, 2University of South Australia Dietary intake of Arsenic (As) via contaminated drinking water and food is the major exposure pathway for people living in Bangladesh and causes adverse human health effects. This research quantifies the spatial variability of As concentration in dietary items and health risk in the rural landscape. 3:50 pm Coffee break

112 Programme Session B1 Mon • July 2

4:30 pm | #714 | Modelling social and environmental impacts of watershed development in Andhra Pradesh, India Merritt Wendy, Australian National University Human capital is modelled to identify impacts of watershed development (WSD) in In- dian villages. After WSD households show either a reduced reliance on common pool drinking water resources or improved adequacy of drinking water which both corre- spond to improved household health and human capital. 4:50 pm | #867 | Overview of Bayesian network approaches to model gene-environment interactions and cancer susceptibility Mark Borsuk1, Chengwei Su2, Angeline Andrew2, Margaret Karagas2, Dartmouth College, 2Dartmouth Medical School Traditional statistical studies of the relations between genes and cancer are often incon- clusive or conflicting. Bayesian networks can be effective for inferring causal relations. We describe the approach, including algorithms for learning structure, and an application to data on bladder cancer. h 5:30 pm End of Session B1 h

113 Programme Mon • July 2 Session G3

Session G3: Semantics and the environment Session G3 11:10 am | #786 | Towards integrated environmental model-based problem solving 2.0 Bld. 4.0 | 102 Huub Scholten, Wageningen University Reusing resources (models, data, tools, documentation) would be facilitated, if resources are web services that can be found and linked to end-user applications that help solving Stream G: real-world environmental problems. Such an approach can be based on semantic oper- Knowledge, Data ability and existing web technologies. and Semantic Processing for 11:30 am | #569 | Towards integrated model building with semantically annotated Environmental components 1 1 2 1 2 Research Oliver Schmitz , Derek Karssenberg , Jean-Luc De Kok , Utrecht University, Vito We develop an ontology that supports two activities of integrated model building: a flex- Session chairs: ible construction of individual model components, and their coupling. We address the Andrea Rizzoli, value of semantically annotated building blocks and show their prototype implementa- Ioannis Athanasia- tion in a declarative modelling framework. dis, Sasa Nesic & 11:50 am | #461 | Making sense of sensor data using ontology: A discussion for road Ferdinando Villa vehicle classification Markus Stocker, Mauno Rönkkö, Mikko Kolehmainen, University of Eastern Finland Our aim is to demonstrate and discuss the acquisition of knowledge about entities, specifically road vehicles, observed by a sensor network, and the automated formal representation of such knowledge in ontology. 12:10 pm | #832 | Semantic Tagging of Environmental Resources: Does it Really Matter to Resource Users? Sasa Nesic1, Andrea E. Rizzoli2, Gerald Schimak3, Giuseppe Avelino4, Jiri Hrebicek5, Alexander Kaufmann3, Marcello Donatelli6, 1IDSIA, 2SUPSI, 3Astrian Institute of Technology, 4Telespazio S.p.A., 5Masaryk University, 6JRC, EU Semantic annotation of environmental resources has become a reality attested by a significant amount of annotations created and published on the Web. A key question now is how to make practical and effective use of those annotations to aid users of environmental resources perform their activities. 12:30 pm | #883 | An ontology-based design for modelling case studies of everyday pro-environmental behaviour in the workplace Gary Polhill1, Nick Gotts1, Noelia Sánchez-Maroño2, Edoardo Pignotti3, Oscar Fontenla-Rome- ro2, Miguel Rodriguez-Garcia2, Amparo Alonso-Betanzos2, Pete Edwards3, Tony Craig1, 1The James Hutton Institute, 2Universidade da Coruña, 3University of Aberdeen Modelling six case studies of everyday pro-environmental behaviour in the workplace raises issues akin to modular integrated modelling. Integrated modelling is a problem of semantic integration, and we present a system for doing so using OWL for the structure and state of the model at any one time. 12:50 pm Lunch

114 Programme Session G3 Mon • July 2

2:30 pm | #1050 | Linked Data in renewable energy domain Henry Abanda, Joseph Tah, Oxford Brookes University Linked Data technology, an emerging publishing paradigm can be used to link various domains to the renewable energy domain. Thus, disparate organisations can efficiently learn and share knowledge about renewable energies which can potentially lead to their uptake for use in different projects. 2:50 pm | #651 | Fuzzy classification trees as environmental indicators Stefano Marsili-Libelli, Emanuele El Basri, Caterina Plotegher, Elisabetta Giusti, University of Florence The generality of classification trees is enhanced by transforming it into a fuzzy inference system with added membership functions. The combined algorithm is demonstrated with both classification and regression examples and the improvements with respect to the original tree are discussed. 3:10 pm | #409 | Operationalizing expert knowledge and stakeholder preferences in integrated natural hazard risk assessment Sebastian Scheuermann1, Dagmar Haase1,2, 1Humboldt University of Berlin, 2Helmholtz Cen- tre for Environmental Research – UFZ Local knowledge, the needs and the preferences of stakeholders remain only scarcely tapped in flood risk assessment. Emanating from a conceptual model of basic risk terms, we present an ontology to put this body of information into operation and discuss its integration with existing knowledge. 3:30 pm | #557 | Visualization and filtering of semantically enriched environmental time series Bojan Božić, Jan Peters-Anders, Gerald Schimak, Austrian Institute of Technology, Seibersdorf This paper covers three different disciplines, which are: Time Series Processing, Semantic Web, and Environment. It presents how the developed visualization and filtering methods contribute to these disciplines by providing semantically enriched environmental time series. 3:30 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #898 | A generic data schema for crop experiment data in food security research Sander Janssen1, Ioannis Athanasiadis2, 1Alterra, Wageningen, 2Democritus University of Thrace Problem: Limited availability of data on crop experiments is hindering progress in research on food security. Aim: to propose a generic data schema, Spatial Temporal At- tribute Catalogue, that can be used to store data on agricultural systems compiled with many different purposes and scopes. h 5:30 pm End of Session G3 h

115 Programme Mon • July 2 Session D1.1

Session D1.1: Uncertainty analysis – environmental model application Session D1.1 11:10 am Introduction part I Bld. 1.0 | L. hall 11:15 am | #428 | Impact of Species Parameter Uncertainty in Simulations of Tree Spe- cies Migration with a Spatially Linked Dynamic Model Stream D: Model Julia Esther Marlene Sophia Nabel, Natalie Zurbriggen, Heike Lischke, Swiss Federal Insti- Development, tute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) Analysis and Appli- It is important to test for influences of uncertainty when explicitly simulating tree species cation: Method- migration. We illustrate that migration success and speed highly diverge among different ological Aspects sets of species parameters, and that additional variability can be caused by a stochastic representation of climate. Session chairs: 11:30 am | #684 | Tools for uncertainty propagation in the Model Web using Monte Carlo James C. Ascough II, Simulation Holger Maier & Olaf David Benjamin Proß1, Christoph Stasch1, Edzer Pebesma2, 1Institute for geoinformatics, 2WWU Munster In this presentation, we describe an approach for integrating Monte Carlo simulation in the Model Web to propagate uncertainty in model inputs and processes. The approach is evaluated in an air quality forecast scenario. 11:45 am | #691 | The application of the virtual ecologist approach to evaluating the effects of uncertainty in plot based monitoring schemes due to landscape spatial and temporal heterogeneity Alex Lechner1, Daniel Clarke1, Dion Weatherley1, Andrew Fletcher1, Peter Erskine1, Lex Comb- er2, 1University of Queensland, 2University of Leicester This paper describes a virtual ecologist landscape and observation simulation model for time-series data. Using simple examples we demonstrate how it can be used to quantify the relationship between vegetation temporal and spatial variability, sampling design and monitoring strategy performance. 12:00 pm | #736 | The GSA-GLUE approach for uncertainty assessment of an integrated MBR model Giorgio Mannina, Alida Cosenza, Gaspare Viviani, Palermo University The combination of the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) is applied for the uncertainty assessment of a WWTP model, in order to discuss its applicability. The GSA-GLUE approach has been applied to an integrated Membrane BioReactor model. 12:15 pm | #806 | Influence of Uncertainty Analysis Methods and Subjective Choices on Prediction Uncertainty for a Respirometric Case Katrijn Cierkens1, Stijn Van Hoey2, Bernard De Baets1, Piet Seuntjens2, Ingmar Nopens1, 1Gh- ent University, 2VITO This paper is an awareness paper to show the difference in model prediction uncertainty determined with different methods and subjective choices. Three methods are compared: classical parameter estimation, Monte Carlo simulations from an expert-based parameter space and the GLUE method.

116 Programme Session D1.1 Mon • July 2

12:30 pm | #823 | Modelling Spatial Uncertainties associated to Emission disaggrega- tion in an integrated Energy Air Quality Assessment Model Ulrich Leopold1, Gerard B.M. Heuvelink2, Laurent Drouet1, Daniel Zachary1, 1Public Research Centre Henri Tudor, 2Wageningen University & ISRIC This paper highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties when changes of scales occur in complex, integrated environmental assessment models. This may affect the quality of model results and therefore their usability in decision making. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | Introduction part II 2:35 pm | #624 | What is a good index? Problems with statistically based indicators and the Malmquist index as alternative Sven Lautenbach1, Gerald Whittaker2, Martin Volk1, 1UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmen- tal Research – UFZ, 2USDA, ARS, National Forage Seed Production Research Center We present the results of an exhaustive review in environmental sciences which identified the most commonly used multivariate statistical methods. We demonstrate some of the shortcomings of these methods and identify by a comparative analysis how the Malmquist index might be used as an alternative. 2:55 pm | #451 | The impact of uncertain ecological knowledge on a water suitability model of riverine vegetation Baihua Fu, Wendy Merritt, Australian National University A habitat model based on the water requirements of riverine vegetation species was developed using an index-based approach. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of the model and how the model behaves in face of imperfect knowledge and information in ecosystem’s response to water regime. 3:15 pm | #904 | Evaluation of different sources of uncertainty in Climate Change impact research using a hydro-climatic model ensemble Markus Muerth1, Blaise Gauvin St-Denis2, Ralf Ludwig1, 1LMU Munich Daniel Caya, 2Ouranos Consortium The impact of climate change on hydrology is highly uncertain. A hydro-climatic ensemble allows to assess the uncertainties in climate and hydrological models and bias cor- rection. A graphical method shows the importance of the uncertainty sources in runoff indicators and their future changes. 3:35 pm | #918 | Uncertainty analysis of an integrated water system in southern England: exploring physical and socio-economic uncertainties Suraje Dessai1, Lan Hoang1, Richard Brazier2, 1University of Leeds, 2University of Exeter Our casestudy explores uncertainty in water supply and demand under climate change. Uncertainty from the hydrological model may increase uncertainty margins in model results; in this study it is likely to be more influential than uncertainty from either projected climate change or demand growth. h 3:50 pm End of Session D1.1 h 3:50 pm Coffee break

117 Programme Mon • July 2 Session F5

Session F5: Understanding ecosystem services, multi-functional land Session F5 use, trade-offs and uncertainty Bld. 1.0 | L. hall 4:30 pm | #340 | Quantifying Trade-offs between Bioenergy Production, Food Produc- tion, Water Quality and Water Quantity Aspects in a German Case Study Sven Lautenbach1, Martin Volk1, Michael Strauch2, Gerald Whittaker3, Ralf Seppelt1, 1Helm- Stream F: holtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, 2Dresden University of Technology, 3USDA, Resource ARS, National Forage Seed Production Research Center Management & We will show how optimization approaches can be used to quantify functional trade-offs Sustainability between different ecosystem services. We used the SWAT Tool together with a genetic algorithm to study the trade-offs related to increasing bioenergy production in an agri- Session chairs: cultural watershed close to Leipzig. David Miller, Iain Brown & 4:50 pm | #789 | Modelling ecosystem services using Bayesian belief networks: Burg- Keith Matthews gravenstroom case study Dries Landuyt1, Elina Bennetsen1, Rob D’Hondt1, Steven Broekx1,2, Guy Engelen2, Peter Goethals1, 1Ghent University, 2Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) Bayesian belief network modelling is an upcoming technique in ecosystem service assessment. In this paper, we investigate the potential of Bayesian belief networks to support ecosystem management for optimal service provision based on a river basin case study located north of Ghent, in Belgium. 5:10 pm | #800 | Approaching Uncertainties in Land- Use Change Modeling in the Amazon Rainforest with Bayesian Belief Networks Carsten Krüger, Dennis Funke, Tobia Lakes, Humboldt University of Berlin Uncertainty is a crucial aspect in land- use change modeling, however, it is rarely addressed. Our approach explicitly account for this issue. Above all, the influence on uncertainty of the spatial neighborhood is an important part of this study. h Session F5 to be cont. on Tuesday, July 3, 11:10 am, same room (Bld. 1.0 Lecture hall) h

118 Programme Session A3 Mon • July 2

Session A3: Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS): from single methods to an automatic semantic interoper- Session A3 ability of artificial intelligence / mathematical / statistical methods Bld. 2.0 (S-IEDSS-2012) Blue Salon 11:10 am | #922 | Modelling SBR cycle management and optimization using Events and Workflows Stream A: Luca Luccarini1, Davide Sottara2 Paola Mello3, Gabriele Morlini3, Filippo Malaguti3, Davide Environmental Sottara4, 1ENEA, 2Arizona State University, 3University of Bologna, 4Arizona State University Information-, Two models of a SBR, one based on workﬂows and the other on the principles of Event Decision Support-, Calculus, are proposed. Both representation capture the operational behavior of the SBR and Software supporting the state transitions and the actions associated to each state. The transitions Systems of the phases are driven by events. 11:30 am | #982 | ELDEWAS – Online early warning system for landslide detection by Session chairs: means of dynamic weather nowcasts and knowledge based assessment Miquel Sanchez Oliver Krol, Thomas Bernard, Oliver Krol, Fraunhofer IOSB Marre, Karina Gibert, Joaquim Comas, Static hazard index maps are used to indicate areas with a high disposition for landslide. Ignasi Rodriguez The key idea of ELDEWAS is to merge the static information with dynamic data from dy- Roda, Manel Poch, namic weather nowcasts in order to detect the dangerous areas according to landslides Ulises Cortes, Rick in real‐time for a particular region. Sodja, Jean Philippe 11:50 am | #839 | IEDSS as a Tool for the Integrated Assessment of Conventional and Steyer, Peter Struss, Innovative Wastewater Treatment Technologies for Nutrient Removal Mihaela Oprea, Manel Poch Espallargas1, Ruben Reif Lopez1, Manel Garrido-Baserba2, Manel Poch Espallar- Franz Wotawa gas11, 1Universitat de Girona, 2Catalan Institute for Water Research & Rene Banares- Alcantara This paper shows the use of an innovative EDSS to select technologies and operational strategies for different wastewater management scenarios characterized by the carbon- to-nitrogen (C/N) ratio of the influent. Criteria such as simplicity, costs or fiability were considered in the decision process. 12:10 pm | #707 | Credal Model Averaging: dealing robustly with model uncertainty on small data sets Andrea Mignatti1, Giorgio Corani2, Andrea E. Rizzoli3, 1Politecnico Milano, 2IDSIA, 3SUPSI We study data sets of population dynamics by extending Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to imprecise probability, yielding Credal Model Averaging (CMA). CMA issues interval prediction; the interval highlights the dependence of the prediction on the prior which has been set over the models. 12:30 pm | #545 | Upgrading a decision support system for air-scour control in flat sheet membrane bioreactors Joaquim Comas1, Ivan Brun1, Hector Monclus2, Jordi Moreno1, Montse Dalmau1, Ignasi Rodri- guez-Roda3, Joaquim Comas1, 1Lequia, 2Inima, 3Icra A decision support system (DSS) to reduce the energy consumed by the blowers in a flat sheet membrane bioreactor pilot plant has been successfully validated. The DSS saves 25% of the air consumed. Finally, this control system has been upgraded to avoid any plant shutdown or data saving failure.

119 Programme Mon • July 2 Session A3

12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | pm | #491 | Application of Bayesian Networks for agricultural land suitability classification: a case study of biosolids amendment Ana Passuello1, Oda Cadiach1, Vikas Kumar2, Marta Schuhmacher1, 1Universitat Rovira i Vir- gili, 2University of Sheffield This paper presents work on Land Suitability classification for the management of biosolids on agricultural soil, to minimise environmental contamination and human exposure. An integrated DSS using Bayesian network and GIS has been developed for the biosolids amendment. 2:50 pm | #391 | Action prioritization to address the Silao-Romita aquifer problem through the analytic hierarchy method Joaquín Izquierdo1, Xitlali Delgado-Galván1, Julio Benítez1, Rafael Pérez-García1, Jesús Mar- tínez2, 1Universitat Politècnica de València, 2Universidad de Guanajuato The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as an alternative to mainstream experience in decision-making in engineering projects. The case study considers the Silao-Romita aquifer in Guanajuato (Mexico), which suffers from various problems, mainly derived from over-exploitation and pollution. 3:10 pm | #783 | iGUESS – A web based system integrating Urban Energy Planning and Assessment Modelling for multi-scale spatial decision making Luís de Sousa, Christopher Eykamp, Ulrich Leopold, Olivier Baume, Christian Braun, Public Research Centre Henri Tudor The integrated Geospatial Urban Energy Information & Support System (iGUESS) is the result of a project by five European cities to mitigate CO2 emissions in urban areas. It is a decision support platform providing accesses to distributed data sources and analysis tools through a single interface. 3:30 pm | #913 | A tool for optimum design of WWTPs under uncertainty: Estimating the Probability of Compliance Cristina Martin, Marc Neumann, Josep Altimir, Peter Vanrolleghem, Cristina Martin, Univer- sité Laval This paper presents a prototype tool for design of Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs). It is a model-based approach that explicitly accounts for both temporal variability and uncertainty, giving a numerical estimation of the probability of compliance. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #633 | A Methodology for the Characterization of Intelligent Environmental Deci- sion Support Systems Miquel Sànchez-Marrè, Karina Gibert, Alejandro Cabello, Federico Sem, Universitat Politèc- nica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech Main characteristics of the IDSS have been identified, through an accurate analysis of cognitive tasks. A sample of Scopus articles regarding IEDSS applications has been analysed. Results of a preliminary analysis with 18 papers about IDSS, including 6 about IEDSS are presented for discussion.

120 Programme Session A3 Mon • July 2

4:50 pm | #926 | Ontologies, Rules, Workflow and predictive models: knowledge assets for an IEDSS Davide Sottara1, Luca Luccarini2, Paola Mello3, Stefano Bragaglia3, Dalila Pulcini4, Daniele Giunchi5, Davide Sottara6, 1Arizona State University, 2ENEA, 3University of Bologna, 4Politec- nico di Milano, 5HERA spa, 6Arizona State University We describe the approach adopted in the open-source Knowledge Integration Platform Drools. It supports hybrid knowledge bases, allowing to add resources of different types, but relies on a uniﬁed data model and inference engine to avoid dependencies and com- patibility issues. h 5:30 pm End of Session A3 h

121 Programme Mon • July 2 Session F1

Session F1: Land-use and land-cover modelling: dealing with com- Session F1 plexity Bld. 2.0 Wintergarden 11:10 am | #582 | Sensitivity of spatially explicit land-use logistic regression models to the errors land-use change maps Alexander V. Prishchepov1, Daniel Müller1, Van Butsic2, Volker C. Radeloff3, 1Leibniz Institute Stream F: of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), 2Humboldt University in Ressource Berlin, 3University of Wisconsin-Madison Management & LUC models are commonly parameterized with maps that have errors. We simulated er- Sustainability rors maps classifying all possible 49 sub-optimal image dates for one Landsat footprint and tested robustness of logistic regression models. Results suggest avoiding using Session chairs: classes lower than 80% of conditional Kappa. Daniel Rutledge, Guy Engelen, 11:30 am | #819 | Modeling Urban Growth and Land Use Change with Cellular Au- Alexander Herzig, tomata and Genetic Algorithms 1 1 2 1 1 2 Jean-Luc de Kok, Neiler Medina , Arlex Sanchez , Wilmer Barreto , Zoran Vojinovic , UNESCO-IHE, University Fraser Morgan & Lisandro Alvarado, Venezuela Brendan Williams Urban planning is essential to improve the effectiveness of the investments that take place in the urban system. This work describes the integration of a cellular automata model (Dinamica) to simulate land use changes around the city of Birmingham in the UK, with the NSGA II to calibrate the model. 11:50 am | #400 | Spatial-dynamic visualization of long-term scenarios for demo- graphic, social-economic and environmental change in Flanders Jean-Luc De Kok, Lien Poelmans, Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Leen Van Esch, Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) A CA-based spatially-dynamic model for Flanders was used to simulate the spatial implications of four worldviews for the developments in the world, Europe and Flanders between 2010 and 2050 at a 1 ha spatial resolution. The simulation results are extremely useful for spatial planning purposes. 12:10 pm | #998 | Exploring land use trends in Europe: a comparison of forecasting approaches and results Hedwig van Delden1, Jasper van Vliet2, Jan-Erik Petersen3, Ybele Hoogeveen3, 1Research In- stitute for Knowledge Systems – RIKS, 2VU University Amsterdam, 3European Environment Agency – EEA Qualitative and quantitative comparison of six land use outlooks for Europe. 12:30 pm | #728 | The choice of crop rotations as an important model input – a case study from Saxony Marco Lorenz1, Enrico Thiel1, Martin Schönhart2, 1State Office for the Environment, Agricul- ture and Geology, 2University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Model based crop rotations (CropRota) were compared to observed land use data and expert-based crop rotations to proof the robustness and uncertainties related to the model use as a potential tool to support integrated modelling studies, e.g. in the field of land use and land-cover change modeling. 12:50 pm Lunch

122 Programme Session F1 Mon • July 2

2:30 pm | #392 | Interpreting outputs of a landscape-scale coupled Social-Ecological System Carsten Marohn, Pepijn Schreinemachers, Dang Viet Quang, Prakit Siripalangkanont, Simon Hoerhold, Thomas Berger, Georg Cadisch, University of Hohenheim We present results of ongoing work on interpreting outputs of a coupled multi-agent and a pixel-based biophysical model. Aim of the exercise was to find out causalities for declining maize yields and extensification of maize cropping systems. 2:50 pm | #540 | Social structure – land use – water flows: modelling the relationships by discrete Bayesian networks Rosa Fernandez Ropero1, Barbara A. Willaarts2, Antonio Fernandez1 , Rafael Rumi1, Pedro A. Aguilera1, 1University of Almeria, 2Technical University of Madrid The aim was to predict how social changes influence both land use and green and blue water flows in two Spanish catchments by discrete Bayesian networks. 3:10 pm | #580 | Development of an activity-based cellular automata land-use model: the case of Flanders, Belgium Tomas Crols1,2, Roger White3, Inge Uljee2, Guy Engelen2, Frank Canters1, Lien Poelmans2, 1Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2VITO, 3Memorial University of Newfoundland (MUN) This research applies an Activity-based Cellular Automata model (ACA) to predict future land use, population and employment directly. We discuss shortcomings in our input data and calibration strategy, show first results for a sub-region in Flanders, and present future model development ideas. 3:30 pm | #855 | Modelling land use change and its spatial variability for ecosystem services assessments Marie S. Castellazzi, Iain Brown, Laura Poggio, Alessandro Gimona, The James Hutton Insti- tute Presentation of a non-optimising land use change modelling approach for scenarios from individual parcels up to regional scales, over multiple years. Through stochastic modelling, uncertainties and variability both spatial and temporal can be investigated for ecosystem services. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #366 | and-use scenario modelling based on human decisions – Combining system dynamics and cellular automata Steffen Lauf1, Dagmar Haase2, Birgit Kleinschmit3, 1Berlin Institute of Technology, 2Humboldt University Berlin, UFZ Leipzig, 3Technical University of Berlin We introduce a combined model approach using system dynamics simulating regional drivers and cellular automaton representing local land-use dynamics. Human decisions are covered by individual residential choice-making over different residential types and decision making by planning authorities.

123 Programme Mon • July 2 Session F1

4:50 pm | #940 | Land systems modelling: An atomistic approach to improve handling of complexity in land use and land cover change modelling Daniel Rutledge1, Robbie Price2, Alexander Herzig2, 1Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research NZ Ltd, 2Landcare Research Land systems modelling helps overcomes typical limitations of land-use and land-cover change modelling. The approach characterises landscapes as systems of interacting data atoms, leading to improvements in scalability, extensiblity, depiction of multiple use/ covers/functions and fidelity of scale. h 5:30 pm End of Session F1 h

124 Programme Session D4 Mon • July 2

Session D4: Characterising environmental modelling paradigms (Bayesian networks, system dynamics, agent based models, coupled Session D4 complex models and expert systems) Bld. 7.1 | 201 11:10 am | #865 | A possible integration of multiple paradigms used in integrated assessment modelling of climate change Mark Borsuk, Michael Gerst, Peng Ding, Richard Howarth, Dartmouth College Stream D: We describe a climate model framework, ENGAGE, in which an evolutionary game theo- Model Develop- retic model of international climate negotiations is linked to an agent-based model of ment, Analysis domestic economic growth, energy technology, and climate change. and Application: 11:30 am | #435 | Agent-based modelling in the agricultural economics tradition of Methodological Recursive Farm Modelling and Adaptive Micro-Systems Aspects Thomas Berger, Christian Troost, University of Hohenheim Session chairs: This modelling approach aims at predicting the impacts of agricultural technology, mar- Tony Jakeman, ket dynamics, environmental change, and policy intervention. It employs scenario-based Olivier Barreteau, analysis to explore the impact of these changes and has capacity for participatory simula- Mark Borsuk, tion and uncertainty testing. Carlo Giupponi, 11:50 am | #1035 | Integration of Bayesian inference techniques with mathematical Rebecca Kelly, modelling Andrea Rizzoli, George B. Arhonditsis, University of Toronto Barbara Robson, Sondoss El Sawah & Bayesian inference techniques offer several exciting prospects, such as the averaging of Alexey Voinov predictions from models of different complexity and the effective integration of watershed with receiving waterbody models, which can be used from policy makers to dictate the Best Management Practices. 12:10 pm | #487 | Water Quality Assessment in the Venice Lagoon Watershed with Mul- tiple Modelling Approaches Carlo Giupponi1, Arianna Azzellino12, Roberta Salvetti2, Paolo Parati3, Marta Carpani2, 1Ca Foscari University of Venice, 2Università di Milano, 3Arpav Many different modelling approaches have been applied for environmental assessment of the Venice Lagoon Watershed. We focus on experiences related to agricultural diffuse pollution and agri-environmental policy and we propose some general recommendations for participatory processes. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #927 | Comparison of outputs based on three different modelling approaches for the response of an intertidal ecosystem to climate change Thomas Murphy, University of Limerick To provide an understanding of how the choice of ecosystem modelling approach influences conclusions, three simple ecosystem models were developed. Each type of model has been shown to lead to different conclusions when considering change in the abiotic environment.

125 Programme Mon • July 2 Session D4

2:50 pm | #652 | Modelling the spread of an invasive crayfish population with cellular automata Stefano Marsili-Libelli, Elisabetta Giusti, Francesca Gherardi, University of Florence The evolution of the red swamp crayfish in a mixed terrestrial/aquatic environment is modelled with cellular automata, in which mobility is related to the habitat suitability through a fuzzy inference system. The model is tested in an invaded marshy area in central Italy with good results. 3:10 pm | #464 | Bioeconomic modelling: Integrating economic and environmental systems? Marit Kragt, University of Western Australia This paper reviews integration characteristics of selected bioeconomic models. For example: how models characterise natural and socioeconomic systems; the limited representation of system complexity; the normative focus on human values, which non-economists may find challenging to accept. 3:30 pm | #1362 | Using system dynamics for environmental modelling: Lessons learnt from six case studies Dagmar Haase1, Sondoss El Sawah2, Hedwig van Delden3, Suzanne Pierce4, Amgad ElMah- di5, Alexey Voinov6, Tony Jakeman2, 1HU Berlin, UFZ Leipzig, 2Australian National University, 3RIKS, 4University of Texas, Austin, 5Climate and Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology, 6ITC Using system dynamics for environmental modelling: Lessons learnt from six case studies. h 3:50 pm End of Session D4 h 3:50 pm Coffee break

Workshop D8: Comparison of and guidelines for environmental mod- Workshop D8 elling paradigms Bld. 7.1 | 201 Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects 4:30 pm | Tony Jakeman, Olivier Barreteau, Mark Borsuk, Andrea Rizzoli & Alexey Voinov This workshop follows on from its associated session D4. h 5:30 pm End of Workshop D8 h

126 Programme Workshops J2 • D9 Mon • July 2

Workshop J2: Elsevier author workshop: getting published, getting cited in international ecological scientific journals Workshop J2 Stream J: Special Workshops for Young Academics Bld. 7.1 | 301 11:10 am | Martin Volk & Sven Lautenbach h 12:50 pm End of Workshop J2 h 12:50 pm Lunch

Workshop D9: The Community for Integrated Environmental Model- ling (CIEM): Current status and future direction Workshop D9 Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects Bld. 7.1 | 301 2:30 pm | Gerry Laniak & Gene Whelan 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | Workshop D9: cont. h 5:30 pm End of Workshop D9 h

127 128 Programme Plenary • Session E2.1 Tue • July 3

08:00 am Registration in the Kubus Foyer 09:00 am Sharing Environmental Information: Digital Earths, Scientific Geodata In frastructures, Clouds and other misty things Lars Bernard, Technical University of Dresden Plenary 09:45 am Context in Environmental Modelling – the room around the elephant Kubus 1ABCD Bruce Edmonds, Manchester Metropolitan University 10:30 am Coffee break

Session E2: Understanding human-environment interactions through modelling and stakeholder participation Session E2.1 E2.1 Case study research: analyzing environmental conditions to- Kubus 1A gether with stakeholders to improve the system’s performance 11:10 am | #403 | Land use modelling and the role of stakeholders in natural protected areas: the case of Doñana, Spain Stream E: Partici- 1 2 2 1 Richard Hewitt , Verónica Hernández Jiménez , María A. Encinas , Francisco Escobar, Univ- patory Modelling 2 erisity of Alcalá, Observatorio para una cultura del territorio and Stakeholder Doñana, an important and threatened natural area in south-west spain, is highly dynamic Involvement in terms of land use change. In the following paper the role of the stakeholder community in developing a land use model for improved decision making and a more sustain- Session chairs: able future for Doñana is discussed. Peter Valkering, Heleen Vreugdenhil, 11:30 am | #625 | Transdisciplinary conceptual modeling of socio-ecological system; Francois Bousquet, what, why, how – a case study application in Terceira Island, Azores Jörg Krywkow, Maria Helena Guimarães1, Johanna Ballé-Béganton2, Denis Bailly2, Alice Newton1, Tomasz Geeske Scholz & Boski1, Tomaz Dentinho3, 1Centre for Marine and Environmental Research – CIMA, 2University Alexey Voinov of Brest, 3GDRS-Universidade dos Açores, CIMA – Universidade do Algarve Modeling can aim at science and policy integration. Models are simplification of reality that can express our view. We all create models and tend to get quite attached to our; by considering it to be the best reality simplification. So, what will happen during a process of co-construction of models? 11:50 am | #787 | Eliciting farming decisions of smallholders in response to water availability conditions in Chingale, Southern Malawi Jörg Krywkow, University of Osnabrück The presentation will introduce to a coupled ABM/WRM trying to examine the implications of agricultural activities on the water balance of a river basin. The focus of this presentation is a discussion upon knowledge elicitation methods to find out coping strategies of farmers.

129 Programme Tue • July 3 Session E2.1

12:10 pm | #1199 | Participatory analysis of the sustainability of rural livelihoods in Absard, Iran Hadi Veisi, Sahar Bagheri, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. Iran With the aim of undertaking livelihood analysis in Absard, Iran, five capital assets (physical, human, financial, social and natural), stressors, sources, impact and strategies were evaluated using primary and secondary data using participatory vulnerability analysis (PVA) methods. 12:30 pm | #803 | Developing and integrating a simulation model of water resources supply and demand within an on-going governance building process : a case study in Thau Catchment, South of France Geraldine Abrami1, Olivier Barreteau2, 1Cemagref / Irstea, 2Irstea We are presenting how a companion modelling process about land and water resource integrated management in South of France was initiated during a research project and how it has been institutionalised within the territory Integrated Management Plan. We also present the model content and evolution. 12:50 pm Lunch

130 Programme Session E2.2 Tue • July 3

Session E2: Understanding human-environment interactions through modelling and stakeholder participation Session E2.2 E2.2 Developing, improving and testing methods together with stakeholders, using case study examples Kubus 1A 2:30 pm | #532 | Agent-based simulation of stakeholders’ negotiation regarding land development scenarios using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Stream E: Partici- Majeed Pooyandeh, Danielle J. Marceau, University of Calgary patory Modelling This paper presents a web agent-based model to simulate the negotiation process of and Stakeholder stakeholders over different land development scenarios in the Elbow River watershed in Involvement southern Alberta, an area subject to considerable urbanization pressure due to its prox- imity to the fast growing City of Calgary. Session chairs: Jörg Krywkow, 2:50 pm | #585 | Building an integrated model for freshwater allocation with local Pieter Valkering, managers in a coastal area Francois Bousquet, Denis Bailly1, Johanna Ballé-Béganton1, Michel Lample2, Rémi Mongruel3, Jean Prou3, Har- Geeske Scholz, old Réthoret4, Cédric Bacher3, José Pérez Agùndez3, Alice Vanhoutte-Brunier3, Julien Neveu5, Alexey Voinov & 1University of Brest, 2Université de Bretagne Occidentale (UBO), 3Ifremer, 4EPTB Charente, Heleen Vreugdenhil 5eaucéa The SPICOSA experiment demonstrates that participatory modelling is key to science and policy integration. The SAF approach offers a selection of tools and methods to facilitate the necessary knowledge exchange and transdisciplinarity between stakeholder and science for sustainability management. 3:10 pm | #845 | Modelling farmers’ choice of miscanthus allocation in farmland: a case-based reasoning model Laura Martin1, Florence Le Ber2, Julie Wohlfahrt1, Géraldine Bocquého1, Marc Benoit1, 1INRA, 2Lhyges-Engees We present the use of a case based reasoning model to predict perennial biomass crops allocation dynamics in farmlands. The results of one application are discussed to perform the model by the integration of more complex stakeholders’ knowledge, caught by farmers’ comprehensive interviews. 3:30 pm | #863 | Using a fuzzy-logic approach to model a reservoir and transfer system under climate change conditions Josef Schmid, Ralf Ludwig, Markus Muerth, University of Munich – LMU A management model is developed for assessing climate change impacts on the Water Transfer System in Franconia, Germany. Based on expert knowledge, standard rules operating this system are defined and implemented in a fuzzy-based modelling system. 3:50 pm Coffee break

131 Programme Tue • July 3 Session E2.2

4:30 pm | #880 | Bridging the gap between modellers and model users, why does this gap exist and what can we do about it? Onno Roosenschoon1, Stefan Reis2, John Turnpenny3, Klaus Jacob4, Sabine Weiland4, Ca- milla Adele33, Dirk Wascher4, Jan-Erik Wien1, Katharina Helming5, Aranka Podhora5, Alterra – Wageningen UR1, 2Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 3University of East-Anglia, 4Freie Univer- sitaet Berlin, 5ZALF – Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research This paper describes the existance of a gap between IA modellers and -practioners regarding tool use. IA tools are not used to their full extend because of this. The reasons why this gap exists are being explored in in addition, we give possible solutions what can be done to overcome these problems. 4:50 pm | #994 | Working together with managers to upgrade a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management of a Greek mussel-farming area Zoi Konstantinou, Yannis N. Krestenitis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki This paper describes the procedure followed and the preliminary results of the effort to develop a substantial relationship between scientists and managers, regarding the issue of the sustainability of mussel-farming activity in Thermaikos gulf, Greece by using and developing a management platform. 5:10 pm | Summary of the day h Session E2 to be continued on Wed., July 4, 11:10 am in same room (Kubus 1A) h

132 Programme Session D6.1 Tue • July 3

Session D6: Geographic Information Systems and geoprocessing workflows for environmental modelling Session D6.1 D6.1: GIS Based Workflows Kubus 1B 11:10 am | #857 | Model visualization and analysis with the Spatial Data Analyzer as tool for model integration Thorsten Arnold1, Qimiao Lu2, 1Drinking Water Source Protection, 2W.F. Baird & Associates Stream D: Coastal Engineers Ltd Model Develop- ment, Analysis This paper presents the Spatial Data Analyzer (SDA) software that facilitates model inte- and Application: gration across disciplines, allows analyzing diverse models and their scenarios within a Methodological single software, and allows watershed managers to handle a great number and variety of Aspects models and high-dimensional data. 11:30 am | #949 | The AgESGUI Geospatial Simulation System for Environmental Mod- Session chairs: el Application and Evaluation Daniel P. Ames, James C. Ascough II1, Olaf David2, Shilpa V. Murthy2, 1USDA-ARS-NPA, 2Colorado State University Robert Argent, This presentation describes the AgESGUI geospatial tool for environmental model de- Susan Cuddy, Nigel ployment. AgESGUI features include editing/visualization of geospatial model input data W.T. Quinn & and geospatial output visualization across space, time, and modeling scenarios including Raul Zurita-Milla real-time color ramping and querying. 11:50 pm | #1236 | The Demeter Framework for Model and Data Interoperability Sergiu Dascalu1, Eric Fritzinger1, Dan Ames2, Karl Benedict3, Ivan Gibbs1, Michael McMahon1, Frederick Harris1, 1University of Nevada, 2Idaho State University, 3University of New Mexico This paper presents the Demeter Framework for model and data interoperability. It details the framework’s key architectural components, describes its Persephone graphical user interface, and discusses examples of application involving WaterOneFlow web services and DotSpatial computational resources. 12:10 pm | #934 | A Strategy for Integrating Open Source GIS Toolboxes for Geopro- cessing and Data Analysis Yang Cao, Dan Ames, Idaho State University A strategy for integrating modeling tools from multiple open source geospatial toolkits using abstraction and software interfaces is presented. Using this strategy, over 160 geospatial tools from the Whitebox GAT open source software are fully integrated with the DotSpatial modeling toolkit. 12:50 pm Lunch

133 Programme Tue • July 3 Session D6.3

Session D6: Geographic Information Systems and geoprocessing Session D6.3 workflows for environmental modelling Kubus 1B D6.3: GIS Web Services & Systems 2:30 pm | #605 | Global Multiscale Hydrologic Web Services Steve Kopp, Dean Djokic, Nawajish Noman, Esri Stream D: This project improves ease of use and increases access to global multiscale hydrologic Model Develop- analysis through the use of web services and focused applications. It provides a set of ment, Analysis hosted web services as well as tools and workflows to assist others in establishing their and Application: own similar systems. Methodological Aspects 2:50 pm | #901 | Uncertainty propagation between web services – a case study using the eHabitat WPS to identify unique ecosystems Session chairs: Michael Schulz1, Jon Olav Skøien, Lydia Gerharz2, Grégoire Dubois, Edzer Pebesma2, 1Euro- Daniel P. Ames, pean Commission – Joint Research Centre (JRC), 2WWU Münster Robert Argent, Ecological modelling with focus on protected areas is the purpose of the modelling ca- Susan Cuddy, Nigel pacity provided by the presented eHabitat Web Processing Service. Propagation of un- W.T. Quinn & certainties by the WPS using UncertML encodings as well as the visualisation using a Raul Zurita-Milla specialised web-client will be presented. 3:10 pm | #930 | Hydrologic Data Discovery, Download, Visualization, and Analysis: A Brief Introduction to HydroDesktop Dan Ames1, Jeffery Horsburgh2, Yang Cao1, Jiri Kadlec1, Tim Whiteaker3, David Valentine4, 1Idaho State University, 2Utah State University, 3Center for Research in Water Resources, 4Uni- versity of California, San Diego HydroDesktop is a free and open source GIS based software for searching across multiple hydrology and climate time series databases registered with the CUAHSI Hydrologic In- formation System. The software is extensible through a simple programming interface based on the DotSpatial programming library. 3:30 pm | #938 | Particles in the Cloud – running GIS-based particle tracking models for fish larval dissemination in traditional and cloud computing architectures Tiffany Vance1, Kyle Wilcox2, 1San Francisco State University/NOAA, 2Applied Science Associates Models provide a way to understand the interactions of biological and physical process. Particle tracking models can show the dispersion of fish larvae. LarvaMap can use both traditional local computing resources – a cloud deployment is simple and the performance improvements can be considerable. 3:50 pm Coffee break

134 Programme Session D6.4 Tue • July 3

Session D6: Geographic Information Systems and geoprocessing workflows for environmental modelling Session D6.4 D6.4: GIS Land-Surface Analysis Kubus 1B 4:30 pm | #838 | Semi-automatic delimitation of Buffer Zones for protected areas: A contribution from species distribution modelling Cuitlahuac Hernandez-Santiago, Martin Volk, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Stream D: Management of natural reserves requires integration of data and tools to support iden- Model Develop- tification of areas and activities that can impact on biodiversity. In this work, a procedure ment, Analysis using free available fauna records, species distribution modeling, spatial analysis and vi- and Application: sualization is presented. Methodological Aspects 4:50 pm | #871 | Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators Session chairs: 1 1 2 1 2 Morten Fuglsang , Bernd Münier , Henning Sten Hansen , Aarhus University, Aalborg Uni- Daniel P. Ames, versity Copenhagen Robert Argent, Possible future urban sprawl patterns have been assessed using different development Susan Cuddy, Nigel pathways. These have been translated into planning strategies and scenarios described W.T. Quinn & by indicators. Their implication on land use changes has been modelled and compared Raul Zurita-Milla using the land use change model LUCIA. 5:10 pm | #615 | Developing a GIS-based spatial decision support system for automated tree crop management to optimize irrigation inputs Aviva Peeters1, Alon Ben-Gal2, Amots Hetzroni2, Manuela Zude3, 1The Hebrew University, 2Agricultural Research Organization, Gilat Research Center, 3Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim The current paper presents the development of a GIS-based sDSS for precision management of orchards. Spatial statistical methods are employed to assess the spatial variability of the orchard and of its environmental conditions and to develop management zones for sustainable precision agriculture. h Session D6 to be cont. with D6.2 on Wed., July 4, 11:10 am in same room (Kubus 1B) h

135 Programme Tue • July 3 Session H3

Session H3: Modelling responses to shocks in coupled socio-ecolog- Session H3 ical systems Kubus 1CD 11:10 am: Welcome and introduction 11:30 am | #756 | Shocks in coupled socio-ecological systems: what are they and how can we model them? Stream H: Tatiana Filatova1, Gary Polhill2, 1University of Twente, 2The James Hutton Institute Socio-Environ- mental Systems We explore the concept of a shock in coupled socio-ecosystems, and consider challenges that shocks pose for modelling. We focus on systemic shocks, which result in a system Session chairs: restructuring. The paper provides a framework in which to discuss other papers in this Tatiana Filatova & session. Gary Polhill 11:50 am | #446 | Simulation of an Insurance System to Flood Risk Frédéric Grelot1, Olivier Barreteau2, 1UMR G-EAU / Irstea, 2IRSTEA This communication discuss the benefit of agent-based modelling to characterize “Cat Nat” system, French way to compensate damage form natural hazard. Key aspects of Cat- NatABM model are presented. We focus analysis on the exploration of conditions under which perverse effects of insurance may occur. 12:10 pm | #526 | Social Uncertainties in Social-Ecological Systems: Policy dynamics in the Dutch Delta Programme Nanda Wijermans1, Heleen Vreugdenhil2, 1Utrecht University, 2Maastricht University This paper describes the role of a new participatory policy structure within a social-water system (SES) based on a case study of the dutch water policy arena. This provides the basis for modelling SES by explicitly including social uncertainty to support the development of social robust strategies. 12:30 pm | #429 | Taking into account recovery to assess vulnerability: application to farms exposed to flooding Pauline Brémond, Frédéric Grelot, UMR G-EAU / IRSTEA In this paper, we discuss the necessity to take into account recovery processes in the field of vulnerability assessment. We present, in this paper, a modelling approach to assess vulnerability to flooding at farm level with quantitative indicators based on damage endured by farms. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #810 | Which household tolerates droughts? – Strategies to secure pastoral livelihoods Romina Drees1, Anja Linstädter2, Karin Frank1, Birgit Müller1, 1Helmholtz Centre for Environ- mental Research – UFZ , 2University of Cologne Increasing frequencies of droughts pose a threat to pastoral livelihoods in dry range- lands. Using a simulation model, we analyze droughts and mobility strategies to detect under which circumstances a climatic shock translates into an economic crisis in pastoral livelihoods.

136 Programme Session H3 Tue • July 3

2:50 pm | #873 | Guiding regional water retention policies using an adaptive ecological indicator Anouk Cormont, Nico Polman, Jappe Franke, Tom Kuhlman, Marleen Schouten, Astrid van Teeffelen, Tim Verwaart, Eugène Westerhof, Wageningen University and Research Centre Farmers can decide to (temporarily) allocate parts of their land to apply agri-environmental measures, depending on shocks of various nature. The population dynamics of indicator species are simulated in dynamic landscapes generated by an ABM, using the population-dynamic model METAPOP. 3:10 pm | #386 | Urban shrinkage as a challenge for modelling human-environmental interaction Annegret Haase, Dieter Rink, Katrin Großmann, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Re- search – UFZ This paper deals with urban shrinkage and its impacts as a response to shock events using the post-1989 postsocialist transition as an example. It discusses from a social science perspective how models can help to better explore specifics of shrinking cities. 3:30 pm | #536 | Simulating shrinkage as shock? Insights from existing shrinkage models Dagmar Haase1, Nina Schwarz2, 1Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, 2Hum- boldt University Berlin The paper reviews and discusses how processes and spatial patterns of urban shrinkage is represented in existing system dynamics, cellular automata and agent-based land-use models. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm |#354 | Modelling residential mobility in a shrinking medium-sized town: Model concept and first empirical results for Delitzsch, Germany Nina Schwarz, Katrin Großmann, Carolin Höhnke, Elisabeth Süßbauer, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ The talk describes the concept of an agent-based model for residential mobility that allows for simulating future patterns of population distribution. Results of an empirical survey are being fed into the model which simulates a shrinking, medium-sized town in Eastern Germany. 4:50 pm | #354 | Simulating shocks with the hypercycles model of economic production Christopher Watts, Claudia Binder, Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich Using Padgett’s model of economic production to create self-sustaining systems, we simulate various external shocks. Systems prove highly resilient to quantitative changes in firms’ capabilities and in their environment, due to adapting and redundancy, but less so to changes in network structure. h 5:30 pm End of Session H3 h

137 Programme Tue • July 3 Session I5.1

Session I5: Use of models for integrated management of urban water Session I5.1 systems Kubus 2A Session I5.1: Urban Wastewater Systems 11:10 am | #171 | Risk-based Water Quality Management in an Integrated Urban Wastewater System under Climate Change and Urbanisation Stream I: Issues in Maryam Astaraie Imani1, Zoran Kapelan2, David Butler2, 1University of Exeter, 2College of En- Water Resources gineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences (CEMPS) Management This study investigates the potential for managing water quality with a novel risk-based approach in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System under climate Session chairs: change and urbanisation.These potentials are explored by optimising the operational Lluis Corominas, control and/or design of the wastewater system. Joaquim Comas & Peter 11:30 am | #818 | Integrated ecological modelling for decision support in the inte- Vanrolleghem grated urban water system modelling of the Drava river (Varazdin, Croatia) Javier E. Holguin Gonzalez1, Gert Everaert1, Peter Goethals1, 1Ghent University, Lorenzo Bene- detti2, Youri Amerlinck3, 1Ghent University, 2Waterways, 3BIOMATH Croatia has signed agreements to join the European Union and thus taken up the obliga- tion to implement the WFD. This paper presents an integration of a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), river water quality and quantity and ecological assessment models to study the effect of upgrading a WWTP. 11:50 am | #772 | Use of integrated models to minimize the impact of urban wastewater systems (UWS) on Mediterranean streams Lluís Corominas1, Pau Prat Busquets2, Lorenzo Benedetti3, Joaquim Comas4, 1ICRA, 2LEQUIA / ICRA, 3Waterways, 4lequia During low river flow conditions, wastewater treatment plant discharges contribute significantly to the total river flow and hence their impact is higher. The objective of the work presented is to find solutions to confront this typical problematic situation by means of integrated modelling. 12:10 pm | #781 | A hybrid artificial intelligence modelling framework for the simulation of the complete, socio-technical, urban water system Sotiria Baki, Ifigeneia Koutiva, Christos Makropoulos, National Technical University of Athens This work presents a hybrid artificial intelligence modelling framework that links social simulation agent based models and urban water modelling tools via system dynamics for assessing the effectiveness of demand management policies and simulating the complete socio-technical urban water system.

138 Programme Session I5.1 Tue • July 3

12:30 pm | #870 | A semi-distributed modelling approach to support wastewater system management in large urban areas Juan Pablo Rodriguez1, Neil McIntyre1, Mario Diaz-Granados2, Juan Pablo Quijano2, Cedo Maksimovic1, 1Imperial College London, 2Universidad de los Andes Use of a semi-distributed model with reasonable spatial and temporal representation of a large sewer system and methods for characterising uncertainty in pollution loads. Against high variability of dry weather profiles, the effects of in-sewer processes were in general not identifiable. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #245 | A Nearest-Neighbour Surrogate Model for the Simulation of Rain- water Tanks Jürnjakob Dugge1, Philip Pedruco2, Matthew Hardy2, 1eWater CRC, 2Bmt Wbm Simulating decentralised water supply options like rainwater tanks requires the use of small timesteps, even if only monthly output values are of interest, which leads to long model runtimes. This paper presents a methodology to efficiently upscale rainwater tank models to a monthly resolution. 2:50 pm | #727 | Validation and sensitivity of a coupled model tool for CSO impact assessment in Berlin, Germany Mathias Riechel1, Andreas Matzinger1, Hauke Sonnenberg1, Nicolas Caradot1, Ilka Meier2, Bernd Heinzmann2, Pascale Rouault1, 1Kompetenzzentrum Wasser Berlin gGmbH, 2Berliner Wasserbetriebe The paper highlights a model-based planning instrument to study the impacts of combined sewer overflows on a receiving river. The use of legislative goal functions for model validation will be demonstrated and model sensitivity to sewer-based mitigation measures or climate change will be discussed. 3:10 pm | #753 | Transport Sewer Model Calibration by Experimental Generation of Discrete Discharges from Individual CSO Structures Mario Regneri1, Kai Klepiszewski1, Stefanie Seiffert1, Peter Vanrolleghem2, Manfred Ostrows- ki3, 1Public Research Center Henri Tudor, 2modelEAU – Université Laval, 3University of Darm- stadt A discrete flow time allocation by mimicked combined sewage flow allows for a good calibration of a non-linear hydrologic model with a Lagrange based pollution load model. The quality is close to a hydrodynamic model in controlled transport sewers and is validated by real rainfall runoff data. 3:30 pm | #377 | Optimal Sequencing of Water Supply Options at the Regional Scale Incorporating Sustainability, Uncertainty and Robustness Eva Beh, Holger Maier, Graeme Dandy, The University of Adelaide This paper presents the optimal sequencing approach incorporating sustainability, alternative water supply sources and robustness into the sequencing of water supply projects at the regional scale. The proposed approach was applied to the case study to determine its effectiveness. 3:50 pm Coffee break

139 Programme Tue • July 3 Session I5.2

Session I5: Use of models for integrated management of urban water Session I5.2 systems Kubus 2A Session I5.2: Water Supply Systems 4:30 pm | #430 | Simulation and Machine Learning Strategies for Enabling Integrated

Water Resource Management: H2OLeak Project Stream I: Issues in Antonio Candelieri1, Enza Messina1, Alberto Malacrida2, 1University of Milano Bicocca, 2GESP Water Resources – Geographical Information Systems; Management H2OLEAK integrates technological solutions with innovative data-driven decision support functionalities based on clustering and hydraulic simulation. We present results on Session chairs: the serivces for network setcorization and localization of leaks, validated on a real case Lluis Corominas, study in Italy. Joaquim Comas & Peter h 5:30 pm End of Session I5 h Vanrolleghem

140 Programme Session D3.1 Tue • July 3

Session D3.1: Advances in software engineering for IEM – methods and approaches Session D3.1 11:10 am | #379 | Classification Of Quality Attributes for Software Systems In the Do- Kubus 2B main of Integrated Environmental Modelling Naeem Muhammad, Stijn Van Hoey, Piet Seuntjens, Wesley Boenne , Peter Viaene , Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO) Stream D: The role of Quality Attributes of software systems used in environmental modelling is not Model Develop- well addressed, which we attempt to highlight. We identify a list of QAs that are specific ment, Analysis to these software. We use hydrological models as a case study. and Application: Methodological 11:30 am | #851 | Comparing Modelling Solutions At Submodel Level: A Case On Soil Aspects Temperature Simulation Simone Bregaglio1, Marcello Donatelli2, Roberto Confalonieri1, Marco Acutis1, 1University of Session chairs: Milan, 2JRC, EU Olaf David, This paper deals with model composition to evaluate alternate modelling approaches. Sven Kralisch, Soil temperature was chosen as case study, evaluating nine modelling solutions against a James C. Ascough II multi-year and multi-location database. The model libraries used allow for further exten- & Peter Krause sion of the composition exercise. 11:50 am | #510 | Integrating OpenMI and UncertWeb: Managing Uncertainty in OpenMI models Tushar Gupta1, Lucy Bastin2, Richard Jones1, Dan Cornford1, 1Indian Institute of Technology, 2Aston University This paper demonstrates the wrapping of OpenMI model components using the Uncer- tWeb Processing Service. This enables exposure of OpenMI models as Web services, as well as enabling the management of uncertainty in such models using the UncertWeb tools. An example is shown and future work identified. 12:10 pm | #660 | DLES framework for spatially-explicit simulation modelling: general description and some exemplary applications Vladimir Shanin, Maria Bezrukova, Alexey Mikhailov, Yulia Khoraskina, Institute of Physico- chemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science DLES is a framework facilitating integration of stand-alone models with different spatial and temporal resolution. Models can exchange data with each other through shared memory controlled by system kernel. Some routines were embedded to facilitate modelling of spatially-explicit interactions. 12:30 pm | #715 | Semantic Array Programming for Environmental Modelling: Applica- tion of the Mastrave Library Daniele de Rigo, European Commission, Joint Research Centre Semantic array programming is proposed as a powerful conceptual and practical tool (with the Mastrave library) for easing scalability and semantic integration in environmental modelling, by complementing extremely concise manipulating operators with modu- larization and compact semantic constraints. 12:50 pm Lunch

141 Programme Tue • July 3 Session D3.1

2:30 pm | #957 | A Multi-Approach Framework to Couple Independent Models for Simulating the Interaction between Crop Growth and Unsaturated-Saturated Flow Processes Salvador Peña-Haro1, Jian Zhou2, Gaofeng Zhang3, Chong Chen3, Fritz Stauffer1, Wolfgang Kinzelbach1, 1ETH Zürich, 2Chinese Academy of Sciences, 3Lanzhou University We integrated WOFOST, a crop growth and production model, with HYDRUS-1D, an unsaturated flow model, and with MODFLOW-2000, a saturated flow model. The coupling was done by external coupling and by code wrapping using OMS3 and PYTHON. 2:50 pm | #802 | Model representation, parameter calibration and parallel computing – the JAMS approach Sven Kralisch, Christian Fischer, Friedrich Schiller University Jena The Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS) is a software platform for environmental model development and application. This paper presents its architecture and shows how its explicit representation of model structure and modelling entities supports parameter calibration and parallel computing. 3:10 pm | #847 | Enhancing Model Reuse via Component-Centered Modeling Frame- works: the Vision and Example Realizations Marcello Donatelli1, Iacopo Cerrani1, Davide Fanchini1, Davide Fumagalli1, Andrea E. Rizzoli2, 1JRC, European Commission, 2SUPSI A shift of paradigm is presented, in which a component based concept of framework designed on layers is presented, to foster model reuse and to enhance transparency in complex simulation systems. Concrete realizations are also presented meeting the the framework-independent components vision. 3:30 pm | #879 | Domain Specific Languages for Modeling and Simulation: Use case OMS3 Olaf David1, Wes Lloyd1, James C. Ascough II2, Timothy Green2, George Leavesley1, Kevin Ol- son1, Jack R. Carlson1, 1Colorado State University, 2USDA - Agricultural Research Service A domain-specific language (DSL) is usually a concise, declarative language that emphasizes strongly a particular problem domain. This paper introduces the use of DSLs for creating models and simulations within the OMS3 modeling framework. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #952 | Design of a Software Framework Based on Geospatial Standards to Facilitate Environmental Modelling Workflows Kym Watson, Vanessa Watson, Fraunhofer IOSB Environmental modelling workflows are often tedious due to heterogeneity of data. A software framework based on open standards may facilitate the workflow by supporting data access, processing, and decision-making. This is explained for MODFLOW, a standard code for groundwater flow simulation.

142 Programme Session D3.1 Tue • July 3

4:50 pm | #905 | The Cloud Services Innovation Platform (CSIP) – Enabling Service- Based Environmental Modelling Using Infrastructure-as-a-Service Cloud Computing Olaf David1, Wes Lloyd1, Jim Lyon1, Ken Rojas2, James C. Ascough II2, Timothy Green2, Jack R. Carlson, 1Colorado State University, 2USDA – Agricultural Research Service The Cloud Services Innovation Platform (CSIP) is an Infrastructure-as-a-Service cloud application architecture which supports prototyping and development of distributed and scalable environmental modelling services.

h 5:30 pm End of Session D3.1 h

143 Programme Tue • July 3 Session A2

Session A2: Striking the balance: advancing multi-objective decision Session A2 support for a changing world Kubus 112 11:10 am | #766 | A multi-objective decision support tool for rural basin management Christos Makropoulos, Yiannis Panagopoulos, Maria Mimikou, Athen Nat. Technical University A Decision Support Tool is developed by integrating the process-based SWAT model Stream A: into a multi-objective genetic algorithm. Optimal combinations of agricultural practices Environmental across a catchment are found able to cost-effectively reduce irrigation water and nutrient Information-, surface water pollution. Decision Sup- port-, and Soft- 11:30 am | #501 | Planning infrastructural measures for groundwater development in ware Systems a coastal aquifer by Global Interactive Response Surfaces: the Nauru island case study Andrea Castelletti, Francesca Pianosi, Luca Alberti, Gabriele Oberto, Politecnico di Milano Session chairs: We explore the potential for the Global Interactive Response Surface (GIRS) methodol- Andrea Castelletti, ogy to overcome the limitations of traditional model-based ‘what-if’ analysis in planning Alexander Lotov, infrastructural interventions in a costal aquifer to control salt intrusion. The case study Francesca Pianosi, considered is Nauru island. Patrick Reed & 11:50 am | | #656 | Near-optimal water management to improve multi-objective deci- Dragan Savic sion making David Rosenberg, Utah State University I present a fast, new near-optimal method to identify and visualize all promising solutions that perform within a specified tolerance of the optimal solution or pareto set. I demonstrate the method for an 18-decision water problem in Amman, Jordan that re- duces expected and cost-variance objectives. 12:10 pm | #157 | Modelling Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise Oz Sahin, Sherif Mohamed, Griffith University This paper introduces a five dimensional spatial-temporal decision modelling framework to address environmental problems in time and space. The approach is based on 3 major modelling and decision making approaches: System Dynamics, Geographical Informa- tion Systems, and Analytical Hierarch Process. 12:30 pm | #513 | Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization in Water Resources: The Past, Present, and Future Joseph Kasprzyk, Patrick Reed, David Hadka, Jonathan Herman, Joshua Kollat, Pennsylva- nia State University We provide the most comprehensive diagnostic assessment of Multiobjective Evolution- ary Algorithms (MOEAs) in the water resources field to date. Ten state-of-the-art MOEAs are tested on three representative water problems. Statistical techniques rank the algorithms’ controllability and reliability. 12:50 pm | #1245 | Multi-criteria evaluation of optimal signal strategies using traffic simulation and evolutionary algorithms Xiaoliang Ma, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) This paper introduces a computational framework to optimize traffic signal plan using traffic simulation and evolutionary algorithm. The approach is applied for evaluation of traffic signal strategies, concerning not only system mobility but also energy and environmental consequences. h 1:10 pm End of Session A2 h 1:10 pm Lunch 144 Programme Session A5 Tue • July 3

Session A5: System Identification and Control Theory applications for Environmental Systems Management Session A5 2:30 pm | #816 | A combined Neural Network and Optimal Interpolation approach for Kubus 112 a PM10 forecast over Po Valley Enrico Pisoni, Claudio Carnevale, Giovanna Finzi, Marialuisa Volta, University of Brescia The work presents the integration between neural network and deterministic chemical Stream A: transport models to forecast the PM10 levels over the Northern Italy. The integration has Environmental been performed through Optimal Interpolation. The results shows agreement both in Information-, terms of statistical and exceedance indexes. Decision Sup- port-, and Soft- 2:50 pm | #828 | Coping with communications delays and different time scales when ware Systems applying central automatic control Ronald van Nooijen1, Alla Kolechkina2, Arnejan van Loenen3, 1Delft University of Technology, Session chairs: 2Aronwis, 3Deltares Andrea Castelletti, When implementing a central automatic controller for a sewer system we found that Marialuisa Volta & while you may save money by reuse of existing systems additional effort will be needed Andrea E. Rizzoli to get the control system to work. 3:10 pm | #406 | Multi-Agent Systems optimization for distributed watershed management Matteo Giuliani1, Andrea Castelletti1, Francesco Amigoni1, Ximing Cai2, 1Politecnico di Milano, 2University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign We present a Multi-Agent Systems optimization-based approach for designing distributed watershed management. We adopt a Distributed Constraint Satisfaction/Optimiza- tion framework to realistically model a hypothetical watershed authority in charge of coordinating multiple independent decision-makers. 3:30 pm | #959 | BIOPOLE: WebGIS-based Decision Support System (DSS) in biomass plant localization Salvatore Greco1, Alessandro Chiesa2, 1TerrAria srl, 2CESTEC spa The presentation will begin with a brief digression on the exploitation of biomass and the importance of using them for energy production. After, the relator will give ample space to a real time simulation using the webgis BIOPOLE application to simulate the optimal location of biomass plants. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #817 | A decision methodology for large scale systems: the case of the air quality planning Enrico Pisoni, Claudio Carnevale, Giovanna Finzi, Marialuisa Volta, University of Brescia A multi-objective optimization approach to define efficient air quality control policies at regional scale is proposed. In the optimization approach Air Quality is described through both seasonal and yearly surrogate models based on Neural Networks. Results on a Northern Italy domain are presented.

145 Programme Tue • July 3 Session A5

4:50 pm | #831 | Stability of digital discrete time controllers for water systems Ronald van Nooijen1, Alla Kolechkina2, Alberto Campisano3, 1Delft University of Technology, 2Aronwis, 3University of Catania A simple rectangular channel with a computer controlled gate is a non-linear sampled data system. An algorithm is derived that, given constant inflow and knowledge of the depth at two points and the actual stored volume, will bring the system to a desired volume. 5:10 pm | #433 | Improved dynamic emulation modelling by time-series clustering: the case study of Marina Reservoir, Singapore Andrea Castelletti1, Stefano Galelli2, Stefania Caietti Marin1, Hans Eikaas3, 1Politecnico di Mi- lano, 2National University of Singapore, 3Public Utilities Board This work explores the potential of time-series clustering techniques to discover compact and relevant representations of high-dimensional data sets produced via simulation of large 3D models. The purpose is to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the dynamic emulators built on these data sets. h 5:30 pm End of Session A5 h

146 Programme Session D1.2 Tue • July 3

Session D1.2: Uncertainty analysis – general frameworks, data and decision support Session D1.2 11:10 am | #175 | Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in the assessment of water- Bld. 4.0 | 102 related risks in southern Europe and neighbouring countries Joachim Post1, Guenter Strunz1, Franz Hummel1, Sihem Benabdallah2, Franz Prettenthaler3, Ralf Ludwig4, 1German Aerospace Center (DLR), 2Center for Water Research and Technologies Stream D: (CERTE), 3Johanneum Research, 4Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich Model Develop- We provide a concept to quantify parameter related uncertainties in hydrological model- ment, Analysis ling and assess the associated impact on risks for agricultural applications under climate and Application: change conditions in Mediterranean environments, exemplified for the Chiba basin, Tu- Methodological nisia (www.climb-fp7.eu). Aspects 11:30 am | #578 | Incorporation of uncertainty in decision support to improve water quality Session chairs: Nele Schuwirth, Christian Stamm, Peter Reichert, Eawag Jack Carlson, We illustrate the use of multi-attribute value and utility theory for evaluating manage- James C. Ascough II, ment alternatives to improve river water quality. Uncertainty in predictions of conse- Olaf David, quences is considered by propagation to values and utilities. Uncertainty in preferences Holger Maier is assessed by sensitivity analysis. 11:50 am | #452 | Uncertainty analysis and data assimilation of remote sensing data for the calibration of cellular automata based land-use models Johannes van der Kwast1, Lien Poelmans2, Tim Van de Voorde3, Kor de Jong4, Inge Uljee2, Derek Karssenberg4, Frank Canters3, Guy Engelen, 1UNESCO-IHE Inst. for Water Education, 2Flemish Inst. for Technological Research (VITO), 3Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 4Utrecht University This study presents a probabilistic framework for the calibration of land-use models. A data assimilation algorithm takes into account uncertainties in the model and reference data. For this purpose we studied uncertainty propagation in a land-use model and in a remote sensing processing chain. 12:10 pm | #900 | Modelling Ecosystem Service Flows under Uncertainty with Stochas- tic SPAN Gary Johnson1, Robert Snapp1, Kenneth Bagstad2, Ferdinando Villa3, 1University of Vermont, 2U.S. Geological Survey, 3Basque Centre for Climate Change We discuss a systematic probabilistic approach to dealing with data gaps and uncertainty visualization in the context of ecosystem service modelling. An application of the presented techniques is described using the Service Path Attribution Networks spatial ecosystem service modelling framework. 12:30 pm | #666 | Conceptual and practical aspects of quantifying uncertainty in environmental modelling and decision support Peter Reichert, Eawag We discuss major aspects and problems of considering uncertainty in environmental modeling. Topics are (i) the formulation and quantification of uncertainty, (ii) model formulation, and (iii) numerical implementation. The paper discusses the state of the art and identifies important research fields. h 12:50 pm End of Session D1.2 h 12:50 pm Lunch

147 Programme Tue • July 3 Session A1

Session A1: Interaction design for environmental information systems Session A1 2:30 pm | #987 | Identifying the decision to be supported: A review of papers from Bld. 4.0 | 102 Environmental Modelling and Software Richard S. Sojda1, Serena H. Chen2, Sondoss El Sawah3, Joseph Guillaume3, Tony Jakeman3, Sven Lautenbach4, Brian McIntosh5, Andrea E. Rizzoli6, Ralf Seppelt4, Peter Struss7, Alexey Stream A: Voinov8, Martin Volk4, 1U.S. Geological Survey, 2Integrated Catchment Assessment and Man- Environmental agement (iCAM) Centre, 3Australian National University, 4Helmholtz Centre for Environmen- Information-, tal Research – UFZ, 5International Water Centre, 6SUPSI, 7Technical University of Munich, 8In- Decision Sup- ternational Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) port-, and Soft- We reviewed 100 papers from Environmental Modelling & Software purporting to ad- ware Systems dress decision support systems (DSS) since one basic tenet of DSS is to help identify and structure the decision(s) to be supported. Only 60% of the papers did so, and only 23% Session chairs: appeared to tackle unstructured decisions. Daryl H. Hepting, Steven Frysinger & 2:50 pm | # 439 | Proactive Environmental Systems: the Next Generation of Environ- Markus Wrobel mental Monitoring Mauno Rönkkö1, Ville Kotovirta2, Kostas Karatzas3, Lucy Bastin4, Markus Stocker1, Mikko Koleh- mainen1, 1University of Eastern Finland, 2VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 3Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 4Aston University We envision factors and trends that shape the next generation environmental information systems. We consider what proactiveness means for environmental information systems, and how I could solve problems related to participatory sensing, uncertainty management, and situational awareness. 3:10 pm | #972 | Implementing biodiversity risks in the classroom – the educational software PRONAS Karin Ulbrich, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Can we still see the brimstone butterfly and the common toad in 50 years? What about climate change? The software PRONAS shows how scientists handle such questions. Three basic scenarios describe “possible future worlds” which include both socio-economic processes and environmental changes. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #489 | ICT, integral models and new methods support farmers/foresters environmental caretaking integration Walter Mayer, PROGIS Software GmbH Large parts of our landscapes are owned and managed by farmers and lots of existing problems around environment and natural risks can only be solved if farmers are defi- nitely involved. But this requires new methods, better education, capacity building, new technologies, compensation models etc.

148 Programme Session A1 Tue • July 3

4:50 pm | #653 | Communicating river level data and information to stakeholders with different interests: the participative development of an interactive online service Christopher (Kit) Macleod1, Somayajulu Sripada2, Antonio Ioris2, Koen Arts2, René van der Wal3, 1The James Hutton Institute, 2Univesity of Aberdeen, 3Aberdeen Centre for Environmen- tal Sustainability There is a need to increase the effectiveness of how river level data are communicated to a range of stakeholders through engagement with users and suppliers of data. Our focus is on the use of natural language generation technology to create textual summaries that will be presented with graphics. 5:10 pm | #590 | The Personal Assessment Tool: an experiment Jutta Willamowski, Yves Hoppenot, Antonietta Grasso, Victor Ciriza, Christelle Loiodice, Xerox Research Centre Europe We present the Personal Assessment Tool (PAT) aiming at making users aware of their impact on the environment and helping them to reduce it. PATtargets print behavior in a corporate work environment. We have tested it in a real setting and describe this experiment and our findings and observations. h Session A1 to be cont. on Wednesday, July 4, 11:10 am, same room (Bld. 4.0, SR 102) h

149 Programme Tue • July 3 Session F5 cont.

Session F5: Understanding ecosystem services, multi-functional land Session F5 cont. use, trade-offs and uncertainty Bld. 1.0 | L. hall 11:10 am | #654 | Realising transition pathways to provide required ecosystem services – an inverse approach Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Ricardo Crespo, ETH Zurich Stream F: Inverse modeling allows quantifying key variables in transition pathways to desired fu- Resource Man- ture states. We demonstrate how such an approach can improve the understanding of agement and the ecosystem services trade-offs involved in the realization of a certain spatial develop- Sustainability ment pathway.

Session chairs: 11:30 am | #463 | The effect of respondent uncertainty on economic value estimates 1 2 1 David Miller, Iain Ivana Logar , Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh , Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and 2 Brown & Keith Mat- Technology (EAWAG), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona thews Respondent uncertainty is an important limitation of the stated preference methods, which are widely used for valuing environmental goods and services. This article exam- ines the effect of respondent uncertainty on welfare estimates. Factors that cause respondent uncertainty are also identified. 11:50 am | #682 | Facilitating well-informed trade-off decision-making on land use change: Integrating rules and indicators of ecosystem service provision into proce- dural 3D visualizations Ulrike Wissen Hayek, Noemi Neuenschwander, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, ETH Zurich We present a framework for facilitating a definition of healthy relationships of built-up and open spaces in collaborative processes. Planners, architects, policy makers and con- cerned parties can identify conditions under which ecosystem services can be provided with a required degree of quality. 12:10 pm | #840 | Exploring path-dependencies and spatial variability in landscape scale scenarios for ecosystem services assessments Marie S. Castellazzi, Iain Brown, Alessandro Gimona, Laura Poggio, The James Hutton In- stitute Spatio-temporal scenarios of woodland expansion in Scotland evaluated for two simple ecosystem services proxies (carbon sequestration and woodland connectivity). The non- optimising land use change modelling supports the integration of explicit spatial variability of ES. 12:30 pm | #564 | Land use change from pastoral farming to carbon forestry: Identify- ing trade-offs between ecosystem services using economic-ecological spatial modelling Beat Huser1, Garry McDonald2, Derek Phyn1, Jelle Hurkens3, Hedwig van Delden3, Daniel Rut- ledge4, John Simmons1, 1Waikato Regional Council, 2Market Economics Ltd, 3Research Insti- tute for Knowledge Systems, 4Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research NZ Ltd The Waikato Regional Council has developed a carbon strategy to benefit from NZ’s ETS by planting trees on marginal farmland. Integrated scenario analysis using a spatial simulation model (WISE) was applied to evaluate economic-environmental trade-offs between different scenarios run to 2050. 12:50 pm Lunch

150 Programme Session F5 cont. Tue • July 3

2:30 pm | #473 | Optimising land-use for multiple ecosystem service objectives: a case study in the Waitaki catchment, New Zealand Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Alexander Herzig, John Dymond, Landcare Research We quantified a set of ecosystem services and applied a land use optimisation model to minimise environmental impacts while maintaining food production (dairy, sheep and beef). We use a case study in New Zealand (the Waitaki catchment) and explain differences between current and optimised land use. 2:50 pm | #912 | An agent-based model for assessing effects of a Chinese PES programme on land-use change along with livelihood dynamics, and land degradation and restoration Takafumi Miyasaka1, Quang Bao Le2, Toshiya Okuro3, Xueyong Zhao4 , Roland W. Scholz2, Kazuhiko Takeuchi 5, 1Keio University, 2ETH Zurich, 3The University of Tokyo, 4Chinese Acad- emy of Sciences, 5The University of Tokyo We empirically built a spatial agent-based land-use model that represents a complex human-environment system, including adaptation/feedback mechanisms, in a desertified region of Inner Mongolia to assess the socio-ecological long-term effects of a Chinese PES system, Sloping Land Conversion Program. 3:10 pm | #791 | Spatio-temporal characterisation of ecosystem functions based on macro-habitats Marie S. Castellazzi, Laura Poggio, Alessandro Gimona, Iain Brown, The James Hutton Institute This paper will present an analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of various ecosystem functions using indices derived from MODIS applied to macro habitats. The results provide a spatial measure of ecosystem functions with dynamic temporal modelling and estimation of uncertainty. 3:30 pm | #471 | Modelling trade-offs between ecosystem services and agricultural production in Western Australia Marit Kragt1, Michael Robertson2, 1University of Western Australia, 2Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Multi-functional land use requires maximising the synergies between agricultural production and environmental conditions. We use APSIM to model trade-offs between provisioning, regulating and supporting ecosystem services. We show opportunities for win- win effects from agro-environmental management. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #716 | Modelling Human-Landscape System Dynamics to Support Reward Mechanisms for Agro-biodiversity Conservation Grace Villamor1, Quang Bao Le2, Paul Vlek1, Meine van Noordwijk3, 1Center for Development Research (ZEF), 2ETH Zurich) / Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), 3World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) This paper tries to answer the question of “how do specific management regime such as payments for ecosystem services or PES affects the trade-offs and synergies among different ecosystem services?” in the rubber agroforests in Indonesia.

151 Programme Tue • July 3 Session F5 cont. • Workshop F6

4:50 pm | #894 | The impact of production and price risk on ecosystem goods and services provision from agriculture and forestry in mountainous regions Simon Briner1, Peter Bebi2, Ché Elkin1, Robert Finger1, Natalie Zurbriggen3, 1ETH Zurich, 2In- stitute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, 3Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) To assess the impact of production and price risks on land use, we develop a spatially explicit economic land allocation model. Agents, representing 78 running farms of the community of Davos, consider impact of their decisions on the variability of their income in the decision making process. h 5:30 pm End of Session F5 h

Workshop F6: Advancing land-use and land-cover modelling: en- Workshop F6 hancing complexity Bld. 2.0 Blue Salon Stream F: Resource Management and Sustainability 2:30 pm | Daniel Rutledge, Guy Engelen, Alexander Herzig, Jean-Luc de Kok, Fraser Morgan & Brendan Williams h 3:50 pm End of Workshop F6 h

3:50 pm Coffee break

152 Programme Session F2 Tue • July 3

Session F2: Sustainability assessment: quantitative indicators, models and techniques Session F2 Bld. 2.0 11:10 am | #438 | Utilization of OpenMI for Calculation of Material Flows in the Tool for Wintergarden Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) Tommi Suominen1, Sergey Zudin1, Peter Verweij2, Marcus Lindner, 1European Forest Intitute, 2ALTERRA Wageningen University and Research Stream F: The Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) implements Sustainability impact Resource assessment by calculating material flows of an interlinked sequence of processes and Management and combining each process’ volume with indicators of environmental, social, and economic Sustainability sustainability. Session chairs: 11:30 am | #454 | Sustainable settlement growth by modelbased decision support: Marina G. Comparison of two MCA-tools for urban regions Erechtchoukova & Sophie Schetke1, Dagmar Haase2, 1University of Bonn, 2Humboldt University of Berlin / Helm- Peter A. Khaiter holtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig The authors compare two different recently developed MCA-DSS for land management having been part of the research projects FIN.30 (REFINA-programme of the German Ministry of Education and Research) and PLUREL (6th EU Framework Programme) using a framework by McIntosh et al. (2009). 11:50 am | #566 | Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security – taking Dongting Lake area for example Xiaoxing Qi, Liming Liu, China Agricultural University How to sustainably satisfy the increasing food needs in China has become a hot topic. Relevant studies mainly focus on the food supply chain and food systems while almost no research focus on the sustainability of resources and the environment. Thus, this paper aims to fill the gap between them. 12:10 pm | #677 | Quantitative assessment of natural and anthropogenic factors in forest carbon sequestration Peter A. Khaiter, Marina G. Erechtchoukova, York University A theoretical framework for quantifying ecosystem services and their changes in response to natural and anthropogenic factors on the basis of a meta-modelling approach is discussed. Forest ecosystems and their services, specifically on carbon cycling and sequestration, are considered. 12:30 pm | #648 | An index for evaluating biodiversity protection parity Georgii Alexandrov, A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sci- ences The social cost of reserving land for nature is high in densely populated regions. At the same, these are the regions where it is urgently needed. A uniform conservation target ignores the regional differences. This paper is to propose a method for setting up equi- table differentiated targets. 12:50 pm Lunch

153 Programme Tue • July 3 Session F2

2:30 pm | #741 | Mobility – a panacea for pastoralism? An ecological-economic modelling approach Gunnar Dressler, Birgit Müller, Karin Frank, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Sustainable natural resource use always faces trade-offs: Resting pastures and maintaining livestock at the same time is not easy. In an agent-based simulation model we explore mobility as one mechanism to enhance sustainability in a nomadic grazing system but see both positive and negative effects. 2:50 pm | #758 | Trading-off Economics and Sustainability in Optimizing Brownfield Redevelopment Maximilian Morio, Sebastian Schädler, Michael Finkel, University of Tuebingen Using a novel simulation-optimization framework for spatially explicit planning and integrated assessment of brownfield redevelopment options, we demonstrate how the trade-off between economic goals and sustainable development may influence the choice of the most appropriate reuse option. 3:10 pm | #899 | Developing a composite risk index for secondary soil salinization based on the PSR sustainability framework Zhulu Lin1, De Zhou2, Liming Liu2, 1North Dakota State University, 2China Agricultural University Secondary soil salinization was described as a problem of agricultural sustainability. A new salinity risk assessment model was prosed based on the Pressure-State-Response sustainability framework, incorporating the grey relational analsyis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process methods. 3:30 pm | #928 | An Integrated Modeling and Data Management Strategy for Cellulosic Biomass Production Decisions Kenneth “Mark” Bryden1, David Muth2, Joshua Koch2, 1Iowa State University, 2Idaho National Laboratory An integrated environmental model is used to investigate agronomic strategies for increasing sustainable biomass production for biofuels. Three environmental models are integrated considering soil erosion and soil organic carbon. The agronomic strategies examined produce more biomass sustainably. h 5:30 pm End of Session F2 h 3:50 pm Coffee break

154 Programme Workshops J1 & J3 Tue • July 3

Workshop J1: Elsevier author workshop: getting published, getting cited in international ecological scientific journals Workshop J1 Stream J: Special Workshops for Young Academics Bld. 7.1 | 201 11:10 am | Sandra Broerse, Brian Fath & Tony Jakeman h 12:50 pm End of Workshop J1 h

12:50 pm Lunch

Workshop J3: Student and young researcher workshop / Meeting of young academics Workshop J3 Stream J: Special Workshops for Young Academics Bld. 7.1 | 201 2:30 pm | Anna Cord, Francesco Falcieri & Markus Stocker h 3:50 pm End of Workshop J3 h

3:50 pm Coffee break

155 Programme Tue • July 3 Session D7

Session D7: Third session on data mining as a tool for environmental sci- Session D6.3D7 entists (S-DMTES-2012) KubusBld. 7.1 1B | 201 4:30 pm | #1130 | A method for comparing data splitting approaches for developing hydrological ANN models Wenyan Wu, Robert May, Graeme Dandy, Holger Maier, The University of Adelaide Stream D: This paper introduces a method to compare different data splitting methods for develop- Model Develop- ing ANN models fairly. The methodology is applied to compare a number of well-known ment, Analysis data splitting techniques in the context of some hydrological ANN modeling problems. and Application: Methodological 4:50 pm | #792 | Selecting relevant predictors: impact of feature selection on model per- Aspects formance, uncertainty and applicability of models in environmental decision making Gert Everaert, Javier E. Holguin Gonzalez, Peter Goethals, Ghent University Session chairs: One of the crucial steps in the development of models is the selection of appropriate Karina Gibert, variables. In this research we assessed the impact of variable selection on the model per- Miquel Sanchez formance and model applicability. Marre, Joaquin 5:10 pm | #646 | Multitask learning of environmental spatial data Izquierdo, Ignasi Mikhail Kanevski, University of Lausanne Rodriguez-Roda, Geoff Holmes, The new two-steps algorithm for multitask learning of environmental data is proposed Serena Chen, and analyzed using real data case study. The main idea is to find the best group of related Antonio Ciampi & variables by using the criterion of nonlinear predictability estimated by general regres- Ioannis sion neural networks. Athanasiadis h Session D7 to be cont. on Wed., July 4, 11:10 am in same room (Bld. 7.1 | room 201) h

156 Programme Workshop G5 • Session C2 Tue • July 3

Workshop G5: The future of semantic technologies in environmental research Workshop G5 Stream G: Knowledge, Data and Semantic Processing for Environmental Research Bld. 7.1 | 301 11:10 am | Andrea E. Rizzoli, Sasa Nesic, Tomas Pariente-Lobo & Gerald Schimak h 12:50 pm End of Workshop G5 h

12:50 pm Lunch

Session C2: Modelling the effectiveness and efficiency of REDD+ Session C2 2:30 pm | Welcome and Introduction Daniel Müller, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe Bld. 7.1 | 301 (IAMO) 2:50 pm | Session Keynote: Impacts of REDD+ in complex landscapes Ole Mertz, University of Copenhagen Stream C: Mitigation of So far most research, projects and guidelines on REDD+ have focused on reducing emis- and Adaption to sions from the first D (deforestation), but much less on the second D (degradation) and Climate Change the + (enhancing forest carbon stocks). Will REDD+ be successful if implemented only in parts? Session chairs: 3:10 pm | #856 | Simulation of REDD+ options using IIASA model framework Daniel Mueller & Mykola Gusti1,2, Hannes Bottcher1, Georg Kindermann1, Petr Havlik1, Michael Obersteiner1, Zhanli Sun 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2Lviv Polytechnic National University We linked an economic land use and a spatially explicit forestry model. The combination of two models allows addressing important issues relevant to REDD+, e.g. estimation of cross-country comparable CO2 emission projections, abatement costs for REDD+ activities and quantification of leakage effects. 3:30 pm | #852 | Forest vs. fuel – how could the politically fostered demand for energy crops influence the effectiveness REDD+ instruments? Hanna Weise, Erik Gawel, Karin Frank, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ We present results from an agent-based land use model with which we analyse different instruments of climate policy (three REDD+-like instruments and fostered demand for bioenergy). We find that the effectiveness between the instruments varies and that it depends on the economic site-conditions. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #683 | Systems Dynamics Approach to Reduce Carbon Emission from Defor- estation and Forest Degradation at Landscape Level Herry Purnomo1, Lutfy Abdullah2, Rika Irawati3, 1CIFOR and IPB, 2Forestry Research and De- velopment Agency, Ministry of Forestry, 3Center for International Forestry Research This REDD+ model simulates landscape and carbon dynamics and its impact in Jambi, In- donesia. We found REDD+ is effective to reduce carbon emission, forest concessions are the most efficient places for running REDD+ projects, and mining is the most inefficient.

157 Programme Tue • July 3 Session C2

4:50 pm | #631 | Evaluating the impacts of REDD+ interventions on livelihoods, social equity and effectiveness George Dyer, Robin Matthews, Innocent Bakam, James Hutton Institute Agent-based, general equilibrium modelling suggests that REDD+ could have significant repercussions for food prices, rents and wages in tropical highland and lowland communities, benefiting large landowners living in urban areas, while disadvantaging village households, especially the landless. 5:10 pm | #558 | Participatory Bayesian networks reveal site-specific causes of land- use trajectories in Southeast Asia Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and East- ern Europe (IAMO) We study local land-use change with Bayesian networks in Laos, Vietnam, and China. Results suggest similar pathways, but with fundamental country-differences in the sequences of causal structures. REDD+ projects ought to account for site-specific dynamics with a flexible implementation structure.

h 5:30 pm End of Session C2 h

158 Programme Kubus 1ABCD | Kubus 1A Wed • July 4

08:00 am Registration in the Kubus Foyer h Plenary 09:00 am Linking landscapes, land use change and ecosystem services with stakeholder understanding and decision-making Kubus 1ABCD David Miller, The James Hutton Institute, GB 09:45 am The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet… Robert M. Hirsch, U.S. Geological Survey 10:30 am Coffee break Session E2 (cont.): Understanding human-environment interactions through modelling and stakeholder participation h Session E2 Kubus 1A Session E2.3 Developing new concepts and frameworks to integrate stakeholder knowledge and activities in modeling efforts 11:10 am | #158 | Modelling human-environment systems in transdisciplinary processes Stream E: Roman Seidl, Quang Bao Le, ETH Zurich Participatory Complex environmental problems are linked with normative and value-related issues be- Modelling and yond normal modeling science. To tackle these problems integrated assessment model- Stakeholder ing used in transdisciplinary (TD) settings (i.e. a joint effort of science and society) is vital. Involvement We present a specific TD approach. 11:30 am | #419 | Participatory Land Use Modeling with Bayesian Networks: a Focus Session chairs: on Subjective Validation Peter Valkering, Enrico Celio, Sibyl Brunner, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, ETH Zurich Heleen Vreugdenhil, Francois Bousquet, Involving local actors in land use modeling aims at fostering mutual learning and facili- Jörg Krywkow, tating implementation of models in planning practice. This can be achieved through a Geeske Scholz & modeling procedure with Bayesian networks. Within these efforts, subjective validation Alexey Voinov takes a crucial position. 11:50 am | #432 | Providing scientific certainty in predictive decision support: the role of closed questions Joseph Guillaume, Tony Jakeman, Australian National University Uncertainty of scientific predictions need not be a difficult issue. The key is to precisely specify purpose & expectations. Closed questions provide an intuitive, natural language means for science and stakeholders to interact. Advantages are illustrated using examples from published literature. 12:10 pm | #595 | Different levels of stakeholder participation for Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools – A comparative requirement analysis of four research approaches Stefan Sieber1, Hannes König1, Irina Bezlepkina², Pytrik Reidsma³, 1ZALF e.V., ²Agricultural Eco- nomics Research Institute, ³Wageningen University Different levels of stakeholder participation for Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools (IA) will be comparatively analyzed among four research approaches. Participation in tool development and processes targeting decision making to narrow the gap between design and use of IA Tools are observed.

159 Programme Wed • July 4 Session E2 cont.

12:30 pm | #657 | How to make environmental models better in supporting social learning? A critical review of promising tools Joop De Kraker, Merel Van der Wal, Open Universiteit The major bottleneck in the interaction between stakeholders and quantitative models appears to be model complexity. The more complex the model, the more difficult it is to support social learning of stakeholders. We report on a search for software tools with the potential to manage this trade-off. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #708 | QUICKScan: a pragmatic approach to decision support Peter Verweij1, Manuel Winograd², Marta Perez-Soba1, Rob Knapen1, Yke van Randen1, 1AL- TERRA Wageningen University and Research, ²European Environment Agency Decision Support Tools (DST) are a key instrument for preparing legislative proposals and policy initiatives. QUICKScan is a framework and DST supporting two-day-workshops with policy makers to assist in shaping policies by using participatory modelling and visualisation and interpretation tools. 2:50 pm | #778 | System Dynamic Modelling for conflicts analysis in groundwater management. Raffaele Giordano1, Marcela Brugnach², Michele Vurro1,1 CNR-IRSA, ²University of Twente The aim of this work is to investigate in which conditions ambiguity in decision makers’ mental models could lead to a conflicting situation. To this aim, two different methodology were sequentially implemented, i.e. cognitive mapping and System Dynamic Model- ing to simulate interferences. 3:10 pm | #811 | Wat-A-Game, a toolkit for building role-playing games about water management Geraldine Abrami, Nils Ferrand, Cemagref / Irstea We believe the presentation of Wat-A-Game will bring insights on innovative – even though low-tech – ways of assisting stakeholder participation and knowledge integration, at various levels of complexity and detail. A demonstration or a game building or playing session can possibly be organized. 3:30 pm | #1198 | Transdisciplinary research for supporting environmental management Meike Düspohl, Sina Frank, Tuck Fatt Siew, Petra Döll, Goethe University Frankfurt In our transdisciplinary project, we will show a combination of participatory methods can be applied to support the identification of realizable strategies for sustainable energy supply through the integration of knowledge inside and outside of academia. h 3:50 pm End of Session E2 h 3:50 pm Coffee break

160 Programme Session A6 Wed • July 4

Session A6: Innovative approaches and components in Environmen- tal Modelling and Software h Session A6 4:30 pm | #465 | Application of support vector machines in landslide susceptibility as- Kubus 1A sessment for the Hoa Binh province (Vietnam) with kernel functions analysis Dieu Bui1, Biswajeet Pradhan2 , Owe Lofman1, Dieu Bui1, Oystein Dick1, Dieu Bui1, 1Norwe- gian University of Life Sciences, 2University Putra Malaysia Stream A: Environmental Four landslide susceptibility models was constructed using support vector machines Information-, (SVM). Prediction capability of SVM models with linear, polynomial, radial basic, sigmoid Decision functions are 95.6%, 95.6%, 95.2%, 94.5%. Compared with logistic regression (93.8%), ac- Support-, and curacy of SVM models are slightly better. Software Systems 4:50 pm | #361 | Analysis of simultaneous water end use events using a hybrid combination of filtering and pattern recognition techniques Session chairs: Khoi Nguyen, Griffith University David Swayne & The study focuses on building an algorithm using Hidden Markov Model in conjunction Holly C. Hartmann with a developed filtering method in the problem of automating a water end use analysis system. This is an opportunity for the viewers to discuss about another approach to a complex blind source separation problem. 5:10 pm | #589 | Investigating the impact of two decades of urbanization on the water balance of the Yzeron peri-urban catchment, France Flora Branger, Cemagref / IRSTEA This study addresses the impact of urbanization on the Yzeron catchment, France. The hydrological model J2000 was used to perform simulations for land use scenarios derived from 1990, 1999, 2008 SPOT images. The results highlight the changes of catchment seasonal response and runoff contributions. h Session A6 to be continued on Thursday, July 5, 9 am, same room (Kubus 1A) h

161 Programme Wed • July 4 Session D6.2

Session D6: Geographic Information Systems and geoprocessing h Session D6.2 workflows for environmental modelling Kubus 1B D6.2: GIS Hydro-Climate Analysis 11:10 am | #479 | Breathing new life into legacy integrated surface groundwater models using GIS-based adaptive mesh, hydrology refinement and data mapping tools Stream D: Model Nigel W.T. Quinn1, Tom Heinzer², Mary Williams², 1Berkeley National Laboratory, ²US Bureau Development, of Reclamation Analysis and Application: The paper describes GIS-based analytical tools developed to support the calibration and Methodological application of integrated groundwater and surface water models that rely on informa- Aspects tion from previous published USGS models. Four examples of these analytical tools are described. Session chairs: 11:30 am | #1005 | An Extensible Inverse Modeling Software Architecture for Param- Daniel P. Ames, eter Distribution Estimation Robert Argent, Carlos Osorio Murillo1, Dan Ames1, Matt Over², Yoram Rubin, 1Idaho State University, ²Univer- Susan Cuddy, Nigel sity of California Berkeley W.T. Quinn & Implementation of an extensible software architecture simplifies the application of in- Raul Zurita-Milla verse modeling techniques by integrating the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD), the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System (HIS) HydroDesktop tool, and the R statistical software package. 11:50 am | #820 | Automatic runoff coefficient estimation for urban drainage modeling using Google Maps Information and fuzzy classification Neiler Medina, Arlex Sanchez, Zoran Vojinovic, UNESCO-IHE In this paper is evaluated the feasibility to use satellite images available in Google Maps, with the purpose of perform a Fuzzy Classification in urban scale in order to obtain Hy- drological parameters for the urban drainage design, such as Runoff coefficient and the percentage of impervious areas. 12:10 pm | #413 | GIS-based procedure for evaluation of performances of the Italian atmospheric modelling system simulated data versus observed measurements Gaia Righini, Antonio Piersanti, ENEA MINNI Project is supporting Italian Ministry of Environment in assessing Air Quality policies. A GIS approach is here presented to compare MINNI modelled versus measured concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. The implemented geoprocessing workflow integrates GIS tools with external procedures. 12:30 pm | #798 | HYDROTAM: A 3D Model for Hydrodynamic and Transport Processes in Coastal Waters Asu Inan, Aslı Numanoglu Genc, Lale Balas, Gazi University HYDROTAM is a Geographic Information Sytems (GIS) integrated three-dimensional baroclinic numerical model that has been developed to simulate the hydrodynamic and transport processes in coastal waters. As the infrastructure program is based on cloud computing technology and GIS platform facilitates 12:50 pm Lunch

162 Programme Session D6.5 Wed • July 4

Session D6: Geographic Information Systems and geoprocessing workflows for environmental modelling h Session D6.5 D6.5: GIS Spatial Temporal Analysis Kubus 1B 2:30 pm | #466 | Automatic modelling and continuous map generation from georefer- enced species census data in an interoperable GIS environment Stream D: Model Lluís Pesquer1, Ester Prat², Ricardo Díaz-Delgado³, Joan Masó², Javier Bustamante³, Xavier Development, Pons4, 1CREAF, ²Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications, ³Spanish National Analysis and Research Council, 4Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Application: This work highlights the benefits of integrating species census data acquisition, debug Methodological information, modelling, map generation and publication into a GIS environment. This Aspects integration guarantees an automatic process and increases data accessibility using stan- dardized and interoperable GIS protocols. Session chairs: 2:50 pm | #628 | Spatio-temporal analysis of decentralized energy systems Daniel P. Ames, Lubos Matejicek, Rudolf Pribil, Charles University in Prague Robert Argent, Susan Cuddy, Nigel It deals with the utilization of renewable energy sources on regional scales using GIS and W.T. Quinn & linear programming. The resulting design includes biomass technology, wind turbines, Raul Zurita-Milla and solar energy systems. The results yield various scenarios based on setting different cost coefficients and constraints. 3:10 pm | #795 | Geovisual analytics of Satellite Image Time Series Raul Zurita-Milla, Connie Blok, Vasilios Retsios, University of Twente Satellite image time series (SITS) are needed for many environmental applications. GIS software lacks SITS functionality. We present an open source toolbox to visualize (interactive animations) and analyze (filtering, aggregation, data mining) SITS. The toolbox is part of a complete RS/GIS software. 3:30 pm | #801 | A GIS-based Data Analysis Platform for Analyzing the Time-Varying Quality of Animal Feed and its Impact on the Environment Andrej Taliun1, Michael Böhlen1, Annelies Bracher², 1University of Zurich, ²Forschungsanstalt Agroscope Liebefeld-Posieux ALP A rich dimensional model of the Swiss Feed Data Warehouse offers enhanced analyses functions to detect and observe factors that influence feed quality. As shown on the hay data, the warehouse helps to monitor and interpret regional influences which are critical for ecologic and economic feeding. 3:50 pm Coffee break

163 Programme Wed • July 4 Session D6.4

Session D6: Geographic Information Systems and geoprocessing h Session D6.4 workflows for environmental modelling Kubus 1B D6.4: GIS Land-Surface Analysis 4:30 pm | #602 | A Logic-based Model for uncertainty reduction: parallel processing

1 1 Stream D: Model Omar Doukari , Robert Jeansoulin², Laboratoire GEODE, ²Labo. Informatique Development, This paper deals with spatial information revision in GIS. We define a new model for spa- Analysis and tial information representation and local belief revision, called G-structure model. Then, Application: we propose a G-structure based revision operator. Finally, we apply this operation on a Methodological real experiment, with real data. Aspects 4:50 pm | #897 | Species distribution modelling and open source GIS: why are they still Session chairs: so loosely connected? Daniel P. Ames, Anne Ghisla1, Duccio Rocchini1, Markus Neteler1, Michael Förster², Birgit Kleinschmit³, 1Ed- Robert Argent, mund Mach Foundation - Research and Innovation Centre, ²Berlin Institute of Technology, Susan Cuddy, Nigel ³Technical University of Berlin EB5 W.T. Quinn & Raul Zurita-Milla Species Distribution Models explain patterns of species occurrences based on environmental and/or geographical data. Many software packages implementing SDMs need improvement on interoperability, that can be achieved through open source development practices and coupling with open source GIS. h 5:30 pm End of Session D6 h

164 Programme Session C3 Wed • July 4

Session C3: Data sets and model components for an integrative assessment of climate strategies h Session C3 11:10 am | #866 | Integrated assessment of mitigation strategies using an agent-based Kubus 1CD model of the linked energy, economic, and climate system Mark Borsuk1, Michael Gerst1, Peng Wang1, Richard Howarth1, Andrea Roventini², Giovanni 1 Dosi³, Dartmouth College, ²University of Verona, ³Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies Stream C: We provide an overview of a new agent-based model of economic growth, energy tech- Mitigation of and nology, and climate change, and demonstrate use of the model for scenario discovery. Adaption to Climate Change 11:30 am | #453 | Interdependence of mitigation, adaptatoin and sustainable development Dominik E. Reusser, Tabea Lissner, Luis Costa, Flavio Augusto Pinto Siabatto, Anselmo Garcia Session chairs: Cantu Ros, Jürgen P. Kropp, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Georgii Alexandrov, Managing climate mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development requires a good Gianni Bellocchi, understanding of the dominant sociotechnical and earth system processes. We sketch an Mark Borsuk, overview of existing model components and globally available data sources, as bases for Francois Gillet & a new model at the country level. Dominik Reusser 11:50 am | #447 | Ecosystem Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Framework Romain Lardy1, Raphaël Martin1, Bruno Bachelet², David Hill², Gianni Bellocchi1, 1French Na- tional Institute for Agricultural Research, ²Clermont Université To answer to the ecosystems vulnerability assessment issue, we present a set of concepts linked to climate change vulnerability. An exemplary case-study is given. This paper em- phasized on the interest of using a design of experiment accounting for sources of uncertainties, and an array of indices. 12:10 pm | #609 | A method for analysing growth curves by using the logistic model with changing carrying capacity Gleb Alexandrov, MIEM The growth of industrial systems and populations of countries with limited resources demonstrates that limits to growth are changing with new technologies. This paper presents a new method for analysing growth curves representing the logistic growth with changing carrying capacity. 12:30 pm | #506 | The greenhouse effect and carbon accumulation dynamics: a general equilibrium simulation Toshitaka Fukiharu, Aoyamagakuin University Explicitly introducing photosynthesis as well as greenhouse effect into an abstract economic model, a dynamic process on the CO2 accumulation is examined. Discontinuity property and the optimal rate of environmental taxation for the stationary state are derived by simulation. 12:50 pm Lunch

165 Programme Wed • July 4 Session C3

Session chairs: 2:30 pm | #807 | Dynamic Modelling of Silvopastoral Landscape Structure: Scenarios Georgii Alexandrov, for Future Climate and Land Use Gianni Bellocchi, François Gillet1, Alexander Peringer², 1Université de Franche-Comté - CNRS, ²Ecole Polytech- Mark Borsuk, nique Fédérale de Lausanne Francois Gillet & Using a spatially explicit dynamic model, we simulate 6 scenarios of climate change and Dominik Reusser management in a pasture-woodland landscape of the Swiss Jura Mountains. The expected loss of resilience due to critical changes in vegetation structure and composition will require adaptive management strategies. 2:50 pm | #484 | Trade-offs in land allocation for bioenergy production Giulia Fiorese, Giorgio Guariso, Politecnico di Milano We formulate and solve a mathematical model to analyse one of the conflicts arising in land allocation. We study the competing use of land for energy crops for two conversion processes: direct combustion and anaerobic digestion. Results suggest that relevant trade-offs depend on local conditions. 3:10 pm | #443 | Steady-state soil organic matter approximation model: application to the PASture SIMulation model Romain Lardy1, Anne-Isabelle Graux1, Bruno Bachelet², David Hill², Gianni Bellocchi1, 1French National Institute for Agricultural Research, ²Clermont Université, CNRS UMR 6158 LIMOS This paper aims at evaluating the use of linear and quadratic response surfaces as an alternative way to initialize steady state soil organic matter of mechanistic biogeochemical models, such as the grassland ecosystem Pasture Simulation model under a range of climate, soil and management conditions

3:30 pm | #505 | Estimation of the total CO2 content of the atmosphere from satellite observations Georgii Alexandrov1, Tsuneo Matsunaga², 1A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Russian Academy of Sciences), ²National Institute for Environmental Studies

The size of the CO2 monitoring network could be increased through satellite observations. The software presented in this paper is to facilitate the integration of Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite observations into the current activities on monitoring the total

CO2 content of the atmosphere. 3:50 pm Coffee break 4:30 pm | #829 | Development of a guideline for regional and local authorities to adapt to climate change – results from the project KLIMPASS Hardy Pundt, Andrea Heilmann, Enrico Kerwel, University of Applied Sciences Harz The goal of the project KLIMPASS was to develop an adaptation strategy to climate change based on a regional level. GIS technology was used to process exemplary vulnerability maps that support decision-making about measures to be implemented envisag- ing potential climatic threats.

166 Programme Session C3 Wed • July 4

4:50 pm | #574 | Integration of Climate Change Effects in Local Models and Urban Plan- ning Processes Sascha Schlobinski1, Ralf Denzer1, Lars Gidhagen², Jonas Olsson², Steven Frysinger³, Peter Kutschera4, 1Cismet Gmbh, ²Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Institute, ³James Madi- son University, Harrsionburg, Virginia USA, 4AIT Austrian Institute of Technology We explain the technical basis for the integration of CC effects in urban planning, incl. access to adequate climate change data, and describe tools to link this to urban planning End-user provide local data to improve the downscaling of climatic and environmental variables, based on RCMs. 5:10 pm | #815 | A EU27 Database of Daily Weather Data Derived from Climate Change Scenarios for Use with Crop Simulation Models Marcello Donatelli1, Davide Fumagalli1, Antonio Zucchini1, Roger Nelson², Gregory Duveiller1, Bettina Baruth1, 1JRC, European Commission, ²Byological Systems Engineering, WSU A data base of daily weather data, with EU27 coverage at 25 km grid, derived from the EN- SEMBLE downscaling of global circulation models HadleyCM3 and ECHAM5 realizations of the IPCC A1B scenario, from 2000 to 2050, suitable for use with biophysical models, is made available via web services. h Session C3 to be continued on Thursday, July 5, 9 am, same room (Kubus 1CD) h

167 Programme Wed • July 4 Session I4

Session I4: Bridging the gap – monitoring and modelling strategies h Session I4 for improving process knowledge and environmental management Kubus 2A 11:10 | am | Improving hydrological modelling through satellite-derived soil moisture observations Luca Brocca, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council Stream I: Issues in Satellite observations of soil moisture represent a powerful tool for improving our un- Water Resources derstanding of water cycle thus reducing uncertainties on the predictions of hydrologi- Management cal models. The study will address this issue showing some applications carried out in several European catchments. Session chairs: Martin Volk & 11:30 am | #843 | Designing a Measurement Network in a Meso-scale Catchment to Ann van Griensven Provide Data for Modelling Manfred Fink1, Marcel Wetzel², Holm Kipka1, Daniel Varga1, Sven Kralisch1, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel1, 1Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, ²Bavarian Environment Agency Water-quality models for meso-scale catchments are often limited by a poor database for calibration and validation purposes. In order to address this problem, a meso-scale catchment was equipped with a measurement network. The goal of this instrumentation is to improve water quality models. 11:50 am | #794 |How to use new online monitoring techniques to improve river water quality modelling at the river reach scale Michael Rode, Uwe Kiwel, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ High temporal resolution monitoring systems are needed to investigate flow and matter transport pathways. A new online water quality monitoring system of the UFZ TERENO Observatory “Bode” will be introduced and it will be shown how this new information can improve river water quality modelling. 12:10 pm | #933 | Efficient data quality evaluation in automated water quality measuring stations Janelcy Alferes, modelEAU, ULAVAL Efficient data quality evaluation tools are proposed and tested on river water quality time series from in-situ monitoring stations. Given the complex data sets generated by continuous monitoring and the insufficient reliability of on-line sensors data validation is crucial for practical use. 12:30 pm | #493 | Weight-of-evidence-based Assessment of Sediment Quality of River San Fransisco, Brazil with the help of software tool SQA Alla Khosrovyan, Maria Jose Salamanca Marin, Angel DelValls, Inmaculada Riba, University of Cadiz The work presents a software tool for integrated sediment quality assessment. The tool has several competitive advantages which are assumed to be added-values for the user: fast analysis, limited user operations, textual interpretation of the results. Software use will be demonstrated as well. 12:50 pm Lunch

168 Programme Session I4 Wed • July 4

2:30 pm | #676 | Model-driven approach to optimization of monitoring designs for multiple water quality parameters Marina G. Erechtchoukova, Peter A. Khaiter, York University Efficient temporal monitoring designs for water quality monitoring systems are developed based on the operation research model. The designs common for water quality parameters derived from the same water samples are obtained using correlations existing in the time series of water quality parameters 2:50 pm | #706 | Modelling multi-pollutant fate in a large river: Role of hydro-morpho- logical and physicochemical parameters Cyril Garneau1, Sabine Sauvage1, José-Miguel Sanchez-Perez1, Yi Hong1, Dominique Aubert², Anne Probst1, 1CNRS-Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement (EcoLab), Univer- sity Perpignan Via Domitia A methodology is proposed to identify factors controlling pollutants (ex: metals) transport in large european rivers through modelling. The three modelling steps are (i) generate an hydrodynamic model, (ii) add a sorption model reacting with organic matter and (iii) add a biogeochemical model. 3:10 pm | #586 | The Water Emissions Inventory planning Support System (WEISS): a quantification of environmental pressures following the path from the emission source to the surface water Leen Van Esch1, Inge Uljee1, Guy Engelen1, Greet Vos², Stefaan Hermans², 1Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), ²Flemish Environment Agency WEISS -Water Emission Inventory planning Support System- enables an in depth knowledge of the location and importance of the main emission sources to the surface waters. Flexibility with respect to the definition of the study area, pollutants, sources, pathways and geographical detail typify WEISS. 3:30 pm | #779 | Modeling water flow and nutrient losses (nitrogen, phosphorus) at a nested meso scale catchment, Germany Sanyuan Jiang, Michael Rode, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Understanding water flow and nutrient transport processes is important for determining hot spots of nutrient leaching and land management. We aims to investigate runoff generation and nutrient (N, P) leaching processes at a typical catchment using integrated modeling approach. 3:50 pm Coffe break 4:30 pm | #572 | Estimating scale effects of catchment properties on modeling soil and water degradation in Benin (West Africa) Yaovi Aymar Bossa, Bernd Diekkrüger, University of Bonn Scale dependent catchment properties were used to derive SWAT model parameters using uncertainty thresholds and statistical approaches. Runoff-sediment-nutrient dynamic is simulated for ungauged large scale catchments with reasonable degree of accuracy.

169 Programme Wed • July 4 Session I4

4:50 pm | #784 | The use of satellite images for evaluating a SWAT model: Application on the Vit Basin, Bulgaria Anastassi Stefanova1, Ann van Griensven², Shreedhar Maskey³, Karin Allenbach4, 1PIK - Pots- dam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ²Vrije Universiteit Brussel, ³Unesco-IHE Institute for Water Education, 4University of Geneva Evapotranspiration and leaf area index were derived from remote sensing and used for the evaluation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT performs calculations on a high level of discretization. The results were plottet in detailed maps and visually compared with satellite images.

5:10 pm | #780 | The Effects of Land use Change on Hydrological Responses in the Choke Mountain Range (Ethiopia) – A new Approach Addressing Land Use Dynamics in the Model SWAT Friedrich Johannes Koch1,2, Ann van Griensven³, Stefan Uhlenbrook1, Shirak Tekleab1, Ermias Teferi1, 1UNESCO-IHE, ²Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, ³Vrije Universiteit Brussel To overcome limitations regarding dynamic land use implementation in SWAT, the tool LUPSA was developed improving the update considerations and setup. The successful application in a Blue Nile subbasin produced preliminary results which showed a significant impact of land use change on the hydrology h 5:30 pm End of Session I4 h

170 Programme Session B3 Wed • July 4

Session B3: Current trends in software developments for environmental pollution modelling h Session B3 11:10 am | #462 | The Environmental Causes of Cancer Distribution in Syria Kubus 2B Rasha Deeb1, Safiah Eid²,1 Gent University, ²Damascus University This study investigates the environmental factors controlling cancer distribution in Syria. Personal and spatial data were employed in GIS. Environmental modelling was made in Stream B: two scales (1:2,000,000 and 1:200,000) which showed many clusters based on the kind Human Health & of cancer and the kind of risk factor. Environmental Risks 11:30 am | #616 | Linking the GRS photochemical scheme with the DAUMOD urban atmospheric dispersion model Session chairs: Andrea Pineda Rojas, Laura Venegas, Argentine Scientific and Technological Research Coun- Kristina Voigt & cil (CONICET) - National Technological University Stefan Reis This presentation focuses on the development and testing of the DAUMOD-GRS model.

The comparison of model results with observed hourly ground-level NO2 and O3 concentrations registered at twenty sites in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, Argentina, shows a good model performance. 11:50 am | #701 | Implementing the Oracle-Based Optimization for an Integrated As- sessment Model for Air Pollution: The Luxembourg Energy Air Quality model Laurent Drouet, Lara Aleluia Reis, Ulrich Leopold, Daniel Zachary, Public Research Centre Henri Tudor The Luxembourg Energy Air Quality (LEAQ) model is coupling an energy model which calculates emissions and an air quality model for ozone production. We implement an advanced optimization method to exchange information and carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis of ozone control strategy. 12:10 pm | #402 | A new Lagrangian-probabilistic approach for the study of pollutants diffusion: analytical modeling and experimental validation using the Copenhagen data set Emanuela Foglia, Roberto Carapellucci, University of L`Aquila A Lagrangian probabilistic model for the study of pollutants diffusion in the atmosphere is presented. It allows to analytically calculate the mean concentration field produced by a time-varying point source. The model is validated considering actual meteorological and emissions scenarios. 12:30 pm | #359 | An application of Kelvin wave expansion to model flow pattern using in oil spill simulation Mohammad Ali Badri, Isfahan University of Technology In a procedure leading to Kelvin wave expansion, flow pattern in the Persian Gulf is estimated. Data of tidal constituents are invoked to determine water surface level and veloc- ity providing flow estimation model and prediction of the trajectory of spilled oil in short term in a simple manner. 12:50 pm Lunch

171 Programme Wed • July 4 Session B3

2:30 pm | #1365 | Probabilistic risk assessment and decision support tools for the evaluation of oil transport in the Gulf of Finland, North-Eastern Baltic Sea Annukka Lehikoinen1, Emilia Luoma, Maria Hänninen², Jenni Storgård³, Sakari Kuikka1, 1Uni- versity of Helsinki, ²Aalto University, ³University of Turku Presentation covers a multidisciplinary risk assessment and decision support meta-model, applying Bayesian Networks (BNs). User interface integrating the BN, probabilistic oil drifting maps and spatial knowledge on threatened species and their conservation values, will be shortly presented as well. 2:50 pm | #418 | Distributed modelling of the fate of pesticides in groundwater, approaches for calibration and validation. Cornelis (Kees) Vink, Vink Hydro Advies Modelling pesticides is a complex challenge. In this paper we will focus on the techniques we applied for modelling, calibration and validation. 3:10 pm | #921 | Relative importance of secondary settling tank models in WWTP simulations – A global sensitivity analysis using BSM2 Elham Ramin1, Xavier Flores Alsina², Gürkan Sin1, Krist V. Gernaey1, Ulf Jeppsson², Peter Steen Mikkelsen1, Benedek Gy. Plósz1, 1Technical University of Denmark, ²Lund University We assess the impact of 1-D SST model selection and parameters on parameter sensitivity rankings used for WWTP model calibration exercise. We performed global sensitivity analysis of Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 with two different 1-D SST models applying two methods: SRCs and Morris screening. 3:30 pm | #878 | Determinator – a generic DSS for hazard identification of species or other physical subjects Michel Uiterwijk1, Leo van Raamsdonk², Sander Janssen1, 1Alterra Wageningen, ²Wageningen University, RIKILT Determinator DSS is used in several practical applications for ensuring food and feed safety and supporting environmental issues. The paper highlights several software aspects and design features of the DSS that enable its use in diverse circumstances and for different users as a generic solution. h 3:50 pm End of Session B3 h

172 Programme Session A1 cont. Wed • July 4

Session A1: Interaction design for environmental information systems h Session A1 11:10 am | #521 | Web-based FOSS Environment Decision Support Systems for Odense River Basin in Denmark Blg. 4.0 | 102 Xuan Zhu, UNESCO-IHE A WebDSS prototype VisREACHER has been developed fully based on Free and Open Source Software. Map-based UI with AJAX techniques give the user more flexible using Stream A: experience. Bayersian Brief Network is chosen as the decision model to generate the fu- Environmental ture scenarios and running in the client side. Information-, Decision 11:30 am | #919 | Strategies and tactics for the design of effective hydroclimatic deci- Support- and sion support tools Software Systems Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona We describe a design framework, strategies, and tactics for developing effective environ- Session chairs: mental information systems, based on case studies of stakeholder-inspired hydroclimatic Daryl H. Hepting, decision support tools developed in the U.S. Southwest, but having larger-scale impacts. Steven Frysinger, 11:50 am | #936 | User Interface Design Considerations for a Hydrologic Space-Time Markus Wrobel GIS Jiri Kadlec1, Dan Ames1, Jim Nelson², 1Idaho State University, ²Brigham Young University HydroDesktop is a free GIS software specially designed for hydrologists. This paper shows steps that were taken to simplify the user interface based on a usability study. The experience can help all developers who are designing highly complex GIS clients for environmental information systems. 12:10 pm | #796 | Web based applications for climate change related information: a usability test Markus Wrobel, PIK The paper identifies three common tasks typically addressed by web based applications for climate change related information. A simple usability test is performed to investigate whether alternative available UI approaches differ with respect to indicators like speed of performance or error rate. h 12:50 pm End of Session A1 h 12:50 pm Lunch

173 Programme Wed • July 4 Session I2.1

Session I2.1: Water management and planning h Session I2.1 I2.1: Models for unique institutional, economic and geographic contexts Blg. 4.0 | 102 2:30 pm | #546 | Model Lifecycle Management for watershed practitioners: A case study in Ontario Thorsten Arnold, Drinking Water Source Protection Stream I: Incremental learning for adaptive watershed management redefines how organizations Issues in Water deal with numerical modeling. We discuss the challenges of a rural organization in On- Resources tario with respect to model maintenance, quality control, regular updating, model visual- Management ization and knowledge management.

Session chairs: 2:50 pm | #482 | Analysis of Water Resource Allocation and Water Quality for Low Flow Julien Harou, River in Mediterranean Watershed: Hydrological Simulation Model Overview Andrea Castelletti, Rubab Fatima Bangash, Ana Passuello, Marta Schuhmacher, Universitat Rovira i Virgili Manuel Pulido- Integrated water resource management and planning computer model (MIKE BASIN in- Velazquez & tegrated with GIS) is used for water resource allocation and water quality simulation in Ejaz Qureshi low flow river (NE Spain). The model appears as a useful tool to assess such characteristics even in low flow river watershed. 3:10 pm | #941 | Sensitivity analysis of environmental flow rule curves for water allocation optimization: Case study, the Upper Oldman River Basin, Alberta, Canada Reza Ghanbarpour, Howard Wheater, Patricia Gober, Global Institute for Water Security In an analysis of the Upper Oldman River, Alberta, Canada, sensitivity analysis of the water resource system to alternate environmental flow rule curves is examined using the WRMM optimization model, considering impacts on reliability, resilience and vulnerability. 3:30 pm | #975 | An agent model to simulate water markets Ivana Huskova, Julien Harou, University College London Our study will present an optimization model that is able to predict pair-wise license trade within a catchment and actively interact with natural hydrology and engineered infrastructure. We will show the applicability of the model using a case study of the River Dove catchment in the UK.

3:50 pm Coffee break

174 Programme Session I2.1 Wed • July 4

4:30 pm | #512 | Modelling water use intensity on farm scale - an interdisciplinary study of agriculture and hydrology Simone Kraatz1, Uwe Hunstock², Judy Libra1, Katrin Drastig1, Leibniz-Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim, ²runlevel3 GmbH Berlin The software “ATB Modeling Database” is introduced. The influence of natural processes and of management decisions on water use intensity in agricultural production of food and biomass for energy can be described with this flexible and expandable model built based on the database platform MongoDB. 4:50 pm | #999 | Integrating hydrology, land use and socio-economics in supporting spatial planning for the Tisza basin Hedwig van Delden1, Annamária Göncz², Jelle Hurkens1, Zsuzanna Nagy³, Pavel Tacheci³, Stanislav Vaněček³, Roel Vanhout1, Vilja Vaszocsik2, 1Research Institute for Knowledge Sys- tems - RIKS, ²VATI Hungarian Nonprofit Ltd. for Regional Development and Town Planning, ³DHI a.s. We present a spatial decision support system developed to assist strategic integrated planning in the Tisza basin. It includes two widely-applied models: the MIKE SHE model for simulating hydrological processes and the Metronamica model for simulating socio- economic and land use change processes. 5:10 pm | #755 | Complexities in modelling water availability in the water-scarce Aksu catchment, northwest China Michel Wortmann, Shaochun Huang, Valentina Krysanova, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research This paper decribes the complexities of the hyperarid catchment of the Aksu River, NW China. It analyses the difficulties in modelling the unique hydrological system and proposes a coupled modelling approach using the process-based, semi-distributed model SWIM and the water management model WEAP. h 5:30 pm End of Session I2.1 | Session I2.2 Thur, 9 am, same room (Bld. 4.0 | room 102) h

175 Programme Wed • July 4 Session D1.3

Session D1.3: Sensitivity analysis h Session D1.3 11:10 am | #481 | A general probabilistic framework for uncertainty and sensitivity Blg. 1.0 | L. hall analysis of deterministic models Gabriele Baroni1, Stefano Tarantola2, 1University of Potsdam, ²Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Stream D: Model Sensitivity analysis based on the methodology proposed by Saltelli&Sobol’ is executed Development, on a case study with SWAP model. The methodology is considered in a general frame- Analysis and work that is capable to consider sources of uncertainty of various typologies (scalar or Application: distributed parameters, model structures). Methodological Aspects 11:30 am | #837 | An integrated, fast and easily useable software toolbox which allows comparative and complementary application of various parameter sensitivity analy- Session chairs: sis methods 1 1 1 1 Holger Maier, Christian Fischer , Sven Kralisch , Peter Krause², Wolfgang-Albert Flügel , Friedrich-Schiller- James C. Ascough University Jena, ²Thuringian State Institute for Environment and Geology II & Olaf David We present a software toolbox for global sensitivity analysis which supports the investigation of parameter sensitivity with different methods. The toolbox uses an ANN based meta-model to generate arbitary samplings dynamically. An application to the hydrological model J2000 will be shown. 11:50 am | #805 | Optimising the convergence of a Sobol’ sensitivity analysis for an environmental model: application of an appropriate estimate for the square of the expectation value and the total variance Jiri Nossent, Willy Bauwens, Vrije Universiteit Brussel Due to the high computational demand of the Sobol’ sensitivity analysis, an optimised convergence of the sensitivity indices is of the utmost importance. Our presentation provides insights on a number of possibilities to optimise the convergence of the Sobol’ method. 12:10 pm | #765 | Global sensitivity analysis for the flow components of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model Carolina Massmann, Hubert Holzmann, Institue of Water Management, Hydrology and Hy- draulic Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences The results of a variance based sensitivity analysis are shown. However, unlike as usually done, we do not show the results for the total or final result, but for the sub-processes. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #533 | Dealing with uncertainty in ecosystem model scenarios: application of single-model ensemble approach Gideon Gal1, Vardit Makler², Noam Shachar1, 1Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Re- search, ²Oranim Academic College Ecosystem models are increasingly used as management tools by resource managers. The models, however, suffer from uncertainties thus limiting their reliability as a management tool. We use a single model ensemble approach for evaluating the impact of uncertainty on management scenario conclusions.

176 Programme Session D1.3 Wed • July 4

2:50 pm | #776 | Multi-method global sensitivity analyses across different temporal scales - results for a rainfall-runoff model and its implications for model calibration Carolina Massmann, Hubert Holzmann, Institue of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences How can global sensitivity methods help in model calibration? What are the characteristics and advantages of some selected global sensitivity methods? 3:10 pm| #745 | Safe Operating Spaces for Human Water Use: Applying Exploratory Modeling and Patient Rule Induction to ANEMI Jan Kwakkel, Jos Timmermans, Delft University of Technology We present an investigation into limits to the planetary fresh water cycle using ANEMI, an integrated dynamic world water model. The dynamics of this model are explored and the driving forces for undesirable dynamics are identified using the Patient Rule Induc- tion Method. 3:30 pm | #486 | Industrial Environmental Performance Evaluation – Comparison and Sensitivity Analysis Samaneh Shokravi, Alan Smith, Colin Burvill, Suhinthan Maheswararajah, University of Mel- bourne The reliability improvement is proved to be environmentally beneficial. It is cost effective and environmentally beneficiary which makes it desirable for industrial owners. It is cost effective as only a maintenance cost has to be added which is smaller than five percent of the sale revenue. h 3:50 pm End of Session D1.3 h 3:50 pm Coffee break

177 Programme Wed • July 4 Session I3

Session I.3: Application of scenarios to support national and interna- h Session I3 tional environmental policies to govern freshwater resources Blg. 1.0 | L.hall 4:30 pm | #685 | Adaptation to climate change by fiel use and agri-environmental policy Katri Rankinen1, Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio², Mikko Laapas³, Kalle Sippel1, Pentti Seuri², Juha He- 4 1 Stream I: lenius , Finnish Environment Institute, ²Agrifood research finland, ³Finnish Meteorological 4 Issues in Water Institute, University of Helsinki Resources An agri-environmental subsidy program has been in place in Finland since 1995. This Management study showed that it is possible to decrease inorg. N load by correct combination of crop and water protection methods but for suspended sediment load more effective and/or Session chairs: targeted measures are needed. Ilona Baerlund & Katri Rankinen 4:50 pm | #382 | Definition of environmental objectives in relation with nitrate pollution in the aquifers of Spain. Simulation model and scenarios used Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín1,2, Teodoro Estrela³, Miguel Ángel Marín Alba³, Patricia del-Amo1, 1Universitat Politècnica de Valencia, ²IIAMA, ³Júcar River Basin Authority / Ministry of Environ- ment, and Rural and Marine Affairs Definition of nitrate concentration objectives in the groundwater bodies of Spain, for the horizons 2015, 2021, 2027 of the River Basin Management Plans, using a distributed model. Three fertilizer scenarios have been assessed: 1) baseline, 2) optimal and 3) trend reversal and improvement. 5:10 pm | #1355 | Economic incentive-based instruments for the adoption of management options for water quality improvement in heterogeneous sugarcane farming communities Martijn van Grieken1, Peter Roebeling², Iris Bohnet1, Stuart Whitten1, Tony Webster1, 1CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, ²Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar (CESAM) Economic incentive-based instruments can be used to internalize the negative externali- ties from coastal water pollution. In this paper we assess an instrument for promoting the adoption of agricultural management practices for water quality improvement in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) region. h Session I.3 to be continued on Thur, July 5, 9 am, same room (Bld. 1.0 | Lecture hall) h

178 Programme Session F3.1 Wed • July 4

Session F3.1: Simulating environmental change – quality, quantity and validation: Examples focusing on terrestial systems h Session F3.1 Bld. 2.0 11:10 am | #718 | Environmental changes as triggers for individual and societal responses Wintergarden Joerg Priess, Christian Schweitzer, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Environmental changes can be related to natural processes or human activities, and often people are affected by these changes. They need to be represented in studies of Stream F: socio-environmental systems, to improve estimates of goods and services. We suggest Resource methods for representation in simulation models. Management & Sustainability 11:30 am | #618 | An agent-based modelling approach to project future habitat suitability for Northern Spotted Owl in Central Oregon Session chairs: Jennifer Koch, Oregon State University Joerg Priess, In this study, we use the agent-based modelling system ENVISION to simulate the inte- Subhashree Das & grated effects of wildfires, vegetative succession, and human decisions regarding forest Christian Schweitzer and fire management on the suitability of the Northern Spotted Owl habitat in Central Oregon. 11:50 am | #393 | Land use change and suitability assessment in the Upper Blue Nile basin under water resources and socio-economic constraints: a drive towards a decision support system Seleshi Yalew1, Ermias Teferi1, Ann van Griensven², Marloes Mul1,Stefan Uhlenbrook1, Jo- hannes van der Kwast1, Pieter van der Zaag1, 1UNESCO-IHE Institute of Water Education, ²Vrije Universiteit Brussel The objective of this study is to identify major land use change drivers, to produce future environmental and socio-economic scenarios and to analyze their impacts on land use change dynamics. Land use scenario and suitability maps based on various land use change factors is produced and discussed. 12:10 pm | #931 | Simulating Crop Phenological Responses to Water Stress using the PhenologyMMS Software Component James C. Ascough II1, Gregory S. McMaster1, Debbie Edmunds1, Olaf David², 1USDA-ARS- NPA, Agricultural Systems Research Unit, ²Colorado State University This presentation describes the development and evaluation of the PhenologyMMS V1.2 software component for simulating the phenology of various crops. The component is simple to use, requires minimal information for calibration, and can be easily incorpo- rated into other crop simulation models. 12:30 pm | #872 | From plot to hillslope: modelling the effect of lateral transport on biogeochemical processes Philipp Kraft1, Edwin Haas², Steffen Klatt², Ralf Kiese², Klaus Butterbach-Bahl², Hans-Georg Frede1, Lutz Breuer1, 1Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, ²Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Biogeochemical models are mostly plot based and do not account for lateral fluxes. We will present a new approach to couple solute transport and nutrient turnover models at the hillslope scale to account for the connectivity of the nutrient cycle across different ecosystem types. 12:50 pm Lunch

179 Programme Wed • July 4 Session F3.1

2:30 pm | #623 | Phosphorus use and management strategies: Exploring scenarios of smallholder’s soil fertility, food production and livelihood with a multi-agent system model Quang Bao Le1, Roland W. Scholz1, Roman Seidl1, Quyet Manh Vu1, Tien Minh Tran², 1Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), ²Soils and Fertilizers Research Institute (SFRI) Efficient use of phosphorus nutrient (P), an essential but limited resource, is a global -is sue. We introduce a first multi-agent system model for assessing long-term impacts of integrated P management options on soil fertility, food productivity and profitability of smallholder agroecosystems. 2:50 pm | #925 | Impacts of human settlements on coastal landscape. Case of Rio Verde Basin, Mexico Cuitlahuac Hernandez-Santiago, Martin Volk, Joerg Priess, Helmholtz Centre for Environmen- tal Research Human settlements impact land use in their surroundings depending if they are perma- nent, new, and intermittent or even abandoned. This work takes an example in Mexico to describe of how different this changes can be and how to improve correlation between land use and population dynamics. 3:10 pm | #527 | Assessing the influence of long term urban growth and climate change scenarios on urban climate Rahim Aguejdad1, Julia Hidalgo², Omar Doukari1, Valéry Masson², Thomas Houet1, 1Labora- toire GEODE, ²CNRM/Météofrance This paper highlights the impact of the urban growth scenarios on the urban climate. It shows an increase of 1 to 2 degrees in the urban air temperature by 2100. Furthermore, the results indicate that big differences in the scenarios are found when exploring the horizontal distribution of the UHI. 3:30 pm | #364 | Modeling large scale invasion of new species under temperature change by reaction-diffusion equations Otto Richter, Wenkui He, TU Braunschweig Mosquitoes which are vectors of diseases have invaded southern parts of Europe. We have devised a model in form of partial differential equations, coupled it with a GIS and created animations for the dispersal of mosquitoes in dependence of changing environmental conditions at the scale of Europe. h 3:50 pm End of Session F3.1 h 3:50 pm Coffee Break

180 Programme Session F3.2 Wed • July 4

Session F3.2: Simulating environmental change – quality, quantity and validation: Examples focusing on hydrological aspects h Session F3.2 Bld. 2.0 4:30 pm | #844 | Perceptual modelling of environmental indicators to assess land uses Wintergarden impacts on water quality Nathalie Lalande, IRSTEA – UMR TETIS DPSIR framework is adapted to assess the influence of land use on river ecological qual- Stream F: ity. After a discussion about spatio-temporal issues, we present an application on Saône Resource Catchment (France) following three steps: (i) inventory of available data, choice of DPSIR Management & indicators (iii) change analysis. Sustainability

4:50 pm | #895 | Assessing land-cover/land-use change and its impacts on surface wa- Session chairs: ter quality in the Ziarat Catchment, Golestan Province-Iran Joerg Priess, Mojtaba Zamani, Amir Sadoddin, Arash Zare, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Subhashree Das & Natural Resources Christian Schweitzer Land-cover/land-use change is the likely key factor causing water quality changes. The findings of this research assists policy makers and catchment managers in developing catchment management plans to protect and restore water quality conditions more effectively. 5:10 pm | #945 | AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) Model Evaluation for Stream- flow and Nitrogen/Sediment Dynamics on a Midwest Agricultural Watershed James C. Ascough II1, Olaf David², Douglas R. Smith³, Holm Kipka4, Manfred Fink4, Timothy Green5, Peter Krause6, Gregory S. McMaster1, Sven Kralisch4, Lajpat R. Ahuja5, 1USDA-ARS-NPA, ²Colorado State University;³USDA-ARS-MWA (National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory), 4Friedrich Schiller University Jena, 5USDA - ARS; 6Thuringian State Institute for Environment and Geology AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) is a modular, Java-based spatially distributed model implemented under the OMS3 modeling framework. This presentation describes AgES-W model application for evaluation of streamflow and N/sediment loading on the Upper Cedar Creek Watershed in Indiana, USA.

h Session F3.2 to be cont. on Thur, July 5, 9 am, same room (Bld. 2.0 | Wintergarden) h

181 Programme Wed • July 4 Session D7 cont.

Session D7 cont.: Third session on data mining as a tool for environmen- h Session D7 tal scientists (S-DMTES-2012) Blg. 7.1 | 201 11:10 am | #884 | A picture on Environmental Data Mining Real Applications. What is done and how? Karina Gibert, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech Stream D: A survey on Environmental Data Mining (eDM) is presented. A form was designed to ex- Model Develop- tract information from a random sample of SCI papers in eDM, read by a set of experts. ment, Analysis The results wer mined for a first picture of eDM. The paper also includes a proposal for and Application: building the eDM-Observatoire. Methodological Aspects 11:30 am | #607 | Knowledge Discovery for Biodiversity: from Data Mining to Sign Management 1 1 1 Session chairs: Noel Conruyt , David Grosser , Régine Vignes Lebbe², University of Reunion Island, ²Univer- Karina Gibert, sité Pierre et Marie Curie Miquel Sànchez- The presentation highlights a new vision of Data mining for Knowledge discovery called Marrè, Joaquín Sign management. It stresses the importance of the Subject for description, classification Izquierdo, Ignasi and identification of biological Objects. Moving from Knowledge transmission to Sign Rodríguez-Roda, sharing is our Living Lab challenge. Geoff Holmes, 11:50 am | #449 | Markov-based approaches to support policies makers in environ- Serena Chen, ment and healthcare Antonio Ciampi & Antonio Candelieri1, Francesco Archetti1,2, Ilaria Giordani², Gaia Arosio1, 1University of Milano Ioannis Athanasiadis Bicocca, ²Consorzio Milano Ricerche Markov-based approaches have been used to develop the Health Impact Decision Sup- port System of Lenvis, a collaborative network of services for supporting environmental stakeholders and healthcare providers. We present results on a multi-period analysis performed in the city of Milan, Italy. 12:50 pm Lunch 2:30 pm | #372 | An approach based on ranking elements to form supply clusters in water supply networks as a support to vulnerability assessment Joanna Gutiérrez-Pérez1, Manuel Herrera2, Joaquín Izquierdo2, Rafael Pérez-García1, 1Univer- sitat Politècnica de València, 2IMM - Universitat Politècnica de València; This work highlights the importance of dividing a water supply network into clusters by spectral-clustering methodology and based on graph measurements, such as the node degree distribution and the pagerank measure, as a tool in the process of the vulnerability analysis. 2:50 pm | #373 | A multi-level spectral clustering process to ascertain sensor location for mitigating effects of a potential contamination in a water supply network Manuel Herrera1, Joanna Gutiérrez-Pérez2, Joaquín Izquierdo1, Rafael Pérez-García2, 1IMM – Universitat Politècnica de València, 2Universitat Politècnica de València Nested divisions into hydraulic districts are used to locate sensors throughout a water supply network and to perform inference tasks on the presence of contamination. Spec- tral clustering approach this division by separated areas weakly interconnected with each other, improving mitigation tasks.

182 Programme Session D7 cont. | Workshop D12 Wed • July 4

3:10 pm | #465 | Assessing variation in biofilms development in a drinking water distribution system by an object oriented Bayesian network approach Eva Ramos-Martínez1, Manuel Herrera1, Joaquín Izquierdo1, Rafael Pérez-García2, 1IMM - Uni- versitat Politècnica de València, 2Universitat Politècnica de València Biofilms in drinking water distribution systems (DWDS) can protect pathogenic microor- ganism, lead to high biocorrosion zones, and consume residual chlorine. We propose an object oriented Bayesian network (OOBN) to identify network areas whose characteristics tend to high biofilm development. 3:30 pm | #561 | An application of data mining to fruit and vegetable sample identification using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) Peter Reutemann, Geoff Holmes, Dale Fletcher, University of Waikato A workflow environment is used to examine if we can determine the fruit/vegetable, and the country of origin of a sample from a GCMS chromatogram. The study presents results for data preprocessing and learning algorithms on 8000 GCMS chromatograms, 100 types of fruit/vegetables from 120 countries. h 3:50 pm End of Session D7 h 3:50 pm Coffee break

Workshop D12: First joint workshop on data mining and intelligent decision support systems for environmental scientists Workshop D12 (IV W-DMTES-2012 and IEDSS-2012) Bld. 7.1 | 201 4:30 pm | #1413 | Tools for Environmental Data Mining and Intelligent Decision Support Karina Gibert, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech Stream D: The paper provides a first insight of some software tools for both Data Mining (DM) and Model Develop- Intelligent Environmental Decision Support System ment, Analysis (IEDSS) as a basis for exchanging experiences on the use of these tools among partici- and Application: pants, as well as to detect other existing tools in the area. Methodological One of the goals of the workshop is to detect real needs in the field of software devel- Aspects opment for both DM and IEDSS and to elicit the strong link between these areas. Both environmentalists and computer scientists are welcomed to discussion and required for Workshop chairs: a rich workshop. Karina Gibert, Joaquín Izquierdo, 4:40 pm | #909 | Some steps from data to decision in WSS Miquel Sànchez- 1 1 2 2 Joaquín Izquierdo , Manuel Herrera , Joanna Gutiérrez-Pérez , Eva Ramos-Martínez , Rafael Marrè, Ignasi 2 1 2 ; Pérez-García , IMM - Universitat Politècnica de València, Universitat Politècnica de València Rodríguez-Roda, Various data tools have proved to be crucial to develop robust DSSs for WSSs. Spectral- Rick Sojda, Geoff clustering is used to divide them into district metered areas and to perform sensitivity Holmes, Antonio analyses to assess elements’ importance. This help in managerial issues including vulner- Ciampi, Ioannis ability and risk analysis studies. Athanasiadis & Joaquim Comas h 5:30 pm End of Workshop D12 h

183 Programme Wed • July 4

Workshop H6: Human decisions in agent-based models (ABM) for Workshop H6 natural resource use – need for protocols Bld. 7.1 | 301 11:10 am | Relevant theoretical and empirical aspects for considering human decision-making represented in agent-based models for natural resource management Quang Bao Le, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) / Institute for Envi- Stream H: ronmental Decisions (IED) Socio-Environ- From a human-environment system (HES) perspective, I present theoretical and empiri- mental Systems cal aspects for considering human decision-making represented in agent-based models (ABMs) for sustainable natural resource management, which are different from those in Workshop chairs: purely social/psychological/economic ABMs. Birgit Mueller, Juergen Narrative explanation of agent decision-making 1 2 2 1 2 Groeneveld & James Millington , David O’Sullivan , George Perry , King s College London, University of Nina Schwarz Auckland We argue that if decision-making in agent-based models is to be comprehensively described, the ways in which model structure can result in contingent agent decisions must be accounted for. We suggest that narrative approaches provide a means to do this co- herently and present an example narrative. Using the “MR POTATOHEAD” decision model template to describe developer, buyer, and seller decision rules from the SLUCE2 agent-based Land Market Model Dawn Parker, University of Waterloo

h 12:50 pm End of Workshop H6 h

Workshop A4: Defining interaction design for environmental infor- Workshop A4 mation systems Bld. 7.1 | 301 Stream A: Environmental Information-, Decision Support-, and Software Systems 2:30 pm | Daryl H. Hepting, Steven Frysinger & Markus Wrobel

h 3:50 pm End of Workshop A4 h

Workshop E4: Community mapping and empowerment: A hands-on Workshop E4 workshop/tutorial with actual village data and simplified villageQ- Kubus | PC-P. GIS software Stream E: Participatory Modelling and Stakeholder Involvement 2:30 pm | Nagesh Kolagani

h 5:30 pm End of Workshop E4 h

184 Programme Session A6 cont. Thur • July 5

Session A6 (cont.): Innovative approaches and components in Envi- Session A6 cont. ronmental Modelling and Software Kubus 1A 9:00 am | #617 | Modelling and Simulating Social Vulnerability under the Influence of Climate Change in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) Thais Lopez-Inojosa1, Martina Neuburger2, Sebastian Medina3, 1Leopold-Franzens University, 2Hamburg University, 3University of Los Andes Stream A: Environmental This project combines climate and social indicators in a model which describes the mul- Information-, tidimensional relationship between climate change and social vulnerability. Modelling Decision Support-, this particular system is an important contribution to predict the impact on societies and and Software deal with the consequences. Systems 9:20 am | #757 | Estimating impact assessment and adaptation strategies under climate change scenarios for crops at EU27 scale Session chairs: Amit Srivastava, Marcello Donatelli, Gregory Duveiller, Stefan Niemeyer, JRC, European David Swayne & Commission Holly C. Hartmann Impact assessment of climate change scenarios on agriculture over EU27 focused on time horizons of 2020 and 2030 vs. 2000. Potential and water-limited yields are simulated for 3 crops (wheat, rapeseed and sunflower) over a 25 by 25 km grid using two contrasting realizations of the A1B scenario. 9:40 am | # 1213 | Optimizing land use and the yields of bio-energy crops by using site specific biomass calculations: Introduction of the crop modelling software BioSTAR Roland Bauböck, University of Göttingen To calculate site specific biomass potentials and climate change effects on yields, a new java-based crop model (BioSTAR) has been developed. The model uses climate and soil data to calculate site specific biomass yields and computes its own photo-synthesis dependent evapotranspiration rates. 10:00 am | #378 | New developments in the ANUCLIM environmental modelling package Tingbao Xu, Michael Hutchinson, Tingbao Xu, Australian National University ANUCLIM, including BIOCLIM, has been widely used to support spatial modelling of environmental resources. Tingbao Xu and Michael Hutchinson of the Australian National University describe a major upgrade of the package with enhanced support of the assessment of impacts of projected climate change. h 10:40 am End of Session A6 h 10:40 am Coffee break Workshop D10: Complex problems, simple answers, difficult solutions Workshop D10 Stream D: Model Development, Analysis and Application: Methodological Aspects Kubus 1A 11:20 am | Alexey Voinov & Ralf Seppelt

h 1:00 pm End of Workshop D10 h 1:00 pm Lunch

185 Programme Thur • July 5 Session D2

Session D2: Distributed environmental modelling Session D2 9:00 am | #1019 | Eco Evidence Database: a distributed modelling resource for system- Kubus 1B atic literature analysis in environmental science and management Angus Webb, Siobhan de Little, Kim Miller, Michael Stewardson, University of Melbourne The Eco Evidence Database is a web database application that contains the atomized Stream D: Model findings of scientific publications. These can be synthesized to address cause-effect- hy Development, potheses for management or research. The database will be most valuable if it is popu- Analysis and lated and managed by a community of users. Application: Methodological 9:20 am | #980 | Distributed environmental modelling Aspects Ari Jolma, Ioan Ferencik, Anas Altartouri, Aalto University We define distributed environmental modeling as organized use of web technology. We Session chairs: present a web site for Bayesian network modeling and consider a suite of interoperable Ari Jolma, modeling services. Standardization efforts in environmental modeling languages are Karl Aberer, proposed. Phillip C. Dibner, Kostas Karatzas & 9:40 am | #627 | Environmental modelling using cloud computing tools: case studies Mike Sips and examples Lubos Matejicek, Charles University in Prague Environmental modelling using cloud computing tools represents a new application domain that outlines new means in research, and new trends in education. It promises to provide opportunities for delivering a variety of computing services in a way that has not been experienced previously. 10:00 | #1000 | Lost in Translation - Mediating between distributed environmental resources Patrick Maué, Marcell Roth, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster Distributed environmental services infrastructures support domain experts to discover, compose, share, and execute environmental models. We present our approach based on semantic annotations and the tools to bridge different formats and standards in these infrastructures. 10:20 am | #1001 | Exploration of spatial and temporal signatures in multiple components of an Geodetic Earth System Model Mike Sips1, Ingo Sasgen2, Tobias Rawald3, Andrea Unger2, 1German Research Center for Geo- Sciences – GFZ, 2Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, 3Hasso-Plattner-Institut für Softwaresystemtech- nik GmbH In this paper, we present requirement on the system’s design and the visual interface to support exploration of mass signals over time in the spatial and temporal domain. 10:40 am Coffee break

186 Programme Session D2 Thur • July 5

11:20 am | #1012 | Fusion of Environmental Information for the Delivery of Orches- trated Services for the Atmospheric Environment in the PESCaDO Project Lasse Johansson1, Kostas Karatzas2, Victor Epitropou2, Anastasios Bassoukos2, Ari Karppinen1, Jaakko Kukkonen1, Mervi Haakana1, 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2Aristotle University of Thessaloniki In the present paper, the general architecture of AirMerge, and the Fusion service of PES- CaDO are exposed as an example of the modus operandi of environmental information fusion for the atmospheric environment. h 11:40 pm End of Session D2 h 1:00 pm Lunch

187 Programme Thur • July 5 Session C3 cont.

Session C3 (cont.): Data sets and model components for an integra- Session C3 tive assessment of climate strategies Kubus 1CD 9:00 am | #836 | An extensible, multi-model software library for simulating crop growth and development Roberto Confalonieri1, Simone Bregaglio1, Tommaso Stella1, Giorgio Negrini1, Marco Acutis1, Marcello Donatelli², 1University of Milan, ²JRC, European Commission Stream C: CropML is an extensible, framework-independent software component where different Mitigation of known and new crop models are implemented. The software architecture targets reuse and Adaption to and fosters the evolution of existing approaches. As an example, a new generation of Climate Change SUCROS-type models has been developed. Session chairs: 9:20 am | #713 | Model components for evaluating climate change impact on wetlands Georgii Alexandrov, Nikolay Zavalishin, A.M. Obukhov Institute of atmospheric physics RAS Gianni Bellocchi, Reaction of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change is reflected in changes of ecosystem Mark Borsuk, biogeochemical cycles. For wetland and spruce forest ecosystems of boreal forest area Francois Gillet & in Russia compartment models for combined carbon-nitrogen cycle dynamics under cli- Dominik Reusser mate change is developed and analyzed. 9:40 am | #645 | Data set characterizing reforestation of drained peatlands Victor Sidorenkov, National Institute of Forestry and Forestry Mechanization The presentation concerns the problem of protecting such vulnerable carbon stocks such as peat deposits at the drained peatlands and introduces the data set summarizing the results of survey that was undertaken to study reforestation of drained peatlands. 10:00 am | #915 | Agroecological Zones Simulator (AZS): A component based, open- access, transparent platform for climate change – crop productivity impact assessment in Latin America Roberto Confalonieri1, Marcello Donatelli², Simone Bregaglio1, Francesco Tubiello³, Erick Fer- nandes4, 1University of Milan, ²JRC – EU, ³Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 4The World Bank AZS is a platform for data/models sharing, facilitating the analysis of climate change impacts and the identification of adaptation strategies. AZS is currently operational for Latin America and Caribe; it was recently used by the World Bank on wheat, maize, rice, soybean. Results are presented. 10:20 am | #560 | An Improved Framework for the Modelling and Optimisation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Associated with Water Distribution Systems Holger Maier, Christopher Stokes, Angus Simpson, The University of Adelaide A framework for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and costs associated with water distribution systems (WDS) is presented. The framework consists of a nexus of components representing the WDS, electricity generation used for pumping, policy drivers and the simulation and evaluation processes. h 10:40 am End of Session C3 h

188 Programme Workshop E3 Thur • July 5

10:40 am Coffee Break Workshop E3: Understanding human-environment interactions WorkshopSession E3 E1 cont. through modelling and stakeholder participation: integrating mod- Kubus 2AKubus 1A els and stakeholders Stream E: Participatory Modelling and Stakeholder Involvement 09:00 am | Peter Valkering, Heleen Vreugdenhil, Francois Bousquet, Jörg Krywkow, Geeske Scholz & Alexey Voinov h 10:40 am End of Workshop E3 h 10:40 am Coffee break

189 Programme Thur • July 5 Session B2

Session B2: Methodological developments in the assessment of ra- Session B2 diation risks Kubus 2A 11:20 am | #220 | Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukusima Nuclear Power Plants Accidents and their Consequences Elena Savelyeva, Sergey Panchenko, Nuclear Safety Institute Russian Academy of Sciences The work compares the radioactive releases due to accidents at Chernobyl and Fukusima Stream B: NPPs and their consequences: fallout of radio nuclides, short-term exposure doses for Human Health population, long-term doses for Russian population under certain countermeasures, ex- and pected long-term doses for Japanese. Environmental Risks 11:40 am | #812 | Overview on data sources for modelling epidemiological effects of environmental pollution Session chairs: Ralf Kusmierz, Hagen Scherb, Kristina Voigt, Ralf Kusmierz, Helmholtz Zentrum München – Hagen Scherb & German Research Center for Environmental Health Kristina Voigt We focus on population based data for the evaluation of the human sex odds at birth in the vicinity of nuclear facilities as well as around chemical sites. In this respect we have to distinguish between the statistical offices of the German states and the Federal statistical office of Germany. 12:00 am | #520 | Modelling the human radiation risks around nuclear facilities in Ger- many, Switzerland, and France: A case study Hagen Scherb, Kristina Voigt, Ralf Kusmierz, Hagen Scherb, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered. The aim of this study was to investigate sex odds trends in the vicinity of nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. 12:20 pm | #515 | Chemicals’ Risks versus Radiation Risks with Respect to the Altera- tion of Human Sex Odds: A Preliminary Evaluation Approach Kristina Voigt, Hagen Scherb, Ralf Kusmierz, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Re- search Center for Environmental Health The ratio of male to female offspring at birth may be a simple and non-invasive way to monitor the reproductive health of a population.We now want to investigate whether chemical sites also influence the human sex odds at birth. We apply ordinary linear logistic regression.

h 12:40 pm End of Session B2 h 1:00 pm Lunch

190 Programme Session D3.2 Thur • July 5

Session D3.2: Advances in software engineering for IEM – applications and use cases Session D3.2 9:00 am | #352 | Parallel implementation to support large spatial simulations Kubus 2B Ralf Wieland, Wilfried Mirschel, Detlef Deumlich, Zalf The paper introduces approaches to parallelization based on OpenMPI and OpenMP applied to the Universal Soil Loss Equation. The key technology is to divide the simulation Stream D: into two parts: a binary part implemented in C++ and an interpreter part which controls Model Develop- the parallel simulation written in Python. ment, Analysis and Application: 9:20 am | #689 | User guided generation of hydrological models: Interface Design, Methodological Workflows and Concepts for an Extensible Software Framework Aspects Karsten Rink1, Lars Bilke1, Olaf Kolditz1, Benny Selle2, 1Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Re- search – UFZ, ²University of Tübingen Session chairs: We present a framework for the exploration and assessment of geoscientific data, prepa- Olaf David, ration of hydrological models, simulation and visualisation of the results. An example Sven Kralisch, James workflow is presented based the model for a groundwater simulation for the Ammer C. Ascough II & catchment in southern Germany. Peter Krause 9:40 am | #785 | Coupling the ExtendSim platform with HEC-HMS for modelling irrigation strategies Michel Lample1, Johanna Ballé-Béganton², Denis Bailly³, 1Université de Bretagne Occidentale (UBO), ²UMR Amure, University of Brest The SPICOSA System Approach Framework (SAF) applied to the French Charente river problem of water scarcity, shows structural weaknesses that the hydrological modelling process reveals clearly. We investigate the reasons and we build a new model based on a sustainability driven approach. 10:00 am | #858 | Design and implementation of the land surface model NaturalEn- vironment within the generic framework OpenDanubia for integrative, distributed environmental modelling Markus Muerth, Daniel Waldmann, Wolfram Mauser, University of Munich – LMU The object-oriented modelling framework OpenDanubia (GPL’ed) was developed to for integrative assessment of climate change impacts on water resources on a regional scale. This paper describes the design issues of its component NaturalEnvironment, which is responsible for modelling the land surface. 10:20 am | #876 | Enhanced model flexibility and coupling opportunities: The WetSpa model case Elga Salvadore1, Jan Bronders², Okke Batelaan³, 1VUB, ²VITO - Flemish Institute for Technologi- cal Research, ³Vrije Universiteit Brussel A method to improve the adaptability and expandability of a complex hydrological model is presented. Here for, an object oriented, modular version of the original model has been developed. To demonstrate process selection and coupling opportunities, an application is provided. 10:40 am Coffee break

191 Programme Thur • July 5 Session D3.2

11:20 am | #902 | Integration of the DAYCENT Biogeochemical Model within a Multi- Model Framework David Muth2, Kenneth “Mark” Bryden1, Jared Abodeely2, 1Iowa State University, 2Idaho Na- tional Laboratory The DAYCENT agroecosystem model is integrated with an existing integrated model investigating sustainable agricultural residue removal for bioenergy. The two-way coupling of DAYCENT allows investigation of soil carbon, grain yield, and greenhouse gas impacts of agricultural residue removal. 11:40 am | #948 | A data model for a sustainable management of parameter sets and optimization results Jean-Michel Perraud, Biao Wang, Jai Vaze, CSIRO Land and Water Model parameters are undervalued and too often inadequately managed. Using object- relational mapping tools such as Entity Framework makes it easier to manage ensemble of parameters. We propose a data model to manage parameters sets resulting from an optimization process. 12:00 am | I#964 | Integrated eco-hydrological modeling by a combination of coupled- model and algorithm using OMS3 Gaofeng Zhang1, Jian Zhou², Qingguo Zhou1, Guodong Cheng², Xin Li², 1Lanzhou University, ²Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences; To improve water resources utilization and predict crop production, paper integrated the crop growth model WOFOST and the hydrological model HYDRUS-1D into OMS3 framework. The analyzing algorithms were used to improve the performance of the model. The methods were validated by the real scenario. 12:20 pm | #983 | The informatics of the hydrological modelling system JGrass-New- Age Giuseppe Formetta1, Andrea Antonello², Silvia Franceschi², Olaf David³, Riccardo Rigon1, 1Uni- versity of Trento , ²Hydrologis , ³Colorado State University It is described the informatic structure of JGrass-NewAGE: a system for the forecasting and the management of the hydrological cycle at the basin scale and its informatics based on the geographic information system uDig and OMS3 hydrological modelling components. h 1:00 pm End of Session D3.2 h 1:00 pm Lunch

192 Programme Session C.1 Thur • July 5

Session C1: Climate change and agriculture – modelling impacts, exploring adaptation options, identifying conflicts Session C1 9:00 am | #344 | Will climate change impact farmers’ maize earliness choice? A model- Kubus 112 ing approach applied to south-western France Kalimuthu Senthilkumar, Jacques-Eric Bergez, Delphine Burger-Leenhardt, INRA, France We ran two models to evaluate the impact of climate change on the sowing and harvest- Stream C: ing periods of maize and its cultivar earliness suitability in the future. Late earliness cul- Mitigation of tivars can be cultivated and the trade-off between maize earliness choices and growing and Adaption to periods will increase in the future. Climate Change 9:20 am | #804 | Impacts of Climate Change on Water Availability and Crop Yield in Session chairs: Germany Annelie Shaochun Huang, Valentina Krysanova, Fred F. Hattermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Holzkaemper, Impact Research (PIK) Robert Finger & This paper analysed the climate impact in Germany in 2031-2060 and three major finding Juerg Fuhrer are presentd: 1) 8–30% lower water discharge in summer and autumn; 2) 9-14% higher crop yield and 3) a high potential to have two yields per year in 80% of the agricultural land in the Ems after year 2030. 9:40 am| #703 | Potential Response of Soil-Borne Fungal Pathogens Affecting Crops to a Scenario of Climate Change in Europe Marcello Donatelli1, Luisa M. Manici², Davide Fumagalli1, Simone Bregaglio³, 1JRC, European Commission, ²Agriculture Research Council - CRA-CIN, ³University of Milan A controlled chamber set of experiments allowed quantifying soil-borne pathogen response to temperature. Fungal response to temperature was modelled and linked to crop, soil temperature and water content model components. Pathogens relative growth was simulated over Europe centred on 2030. 10:00 am | #722 | Potential distribution and phenological development of the Medi- terranean Corn Borer (Sesamia nonagrioides) under warming climate in Europe Andrea Maiorano, Marcello Donatelli, Davide Fumagalli, JRC, European Commission Warming climate has the potential to substantially modify the geographical distribution of pests, including the maize borer Sesamia nonagrioides. Simulations showed that temperature is not the limiting factors in determining MCB distribution and other factors could play a more significant role 10:20 am | #422 | Identifying Optimum Strategies for Land Management Adaptation to Climate Change - A Multiobjective Approach Tommy Klein, Annelie Holzkämper, Pierluigi Calanca, Jürg Fuhrer, Agroscope Research Sta- tion ART Zurich Based on a modeling framework we identify sustainable regional land management adaptation strategies to maximize agricultural productivity, while minimizing environmental impacts such as nutrient leaching, soil erosion and an excessive use of water resources. 10:40 am Coffee berak

193 Index Programme A Thur • July 5 Session C1 Arevalo, Juan 195

B 11:20 am | #390 | An intelligible assessment of climatic exposure of grassland-based livestock systems Bauböck, Roland 185 Roger Martin-Clouaire, Marion Sautier, Michel Duru, INRA, France Bodin, Örjan 198 This method presented makes it possible to characterise climatic exposure of grassland- Bojovic, Dragana 194 based livestock systems in terms of, the duration of periods in which the pasture produc- Broekx, Steven 195 tion is insufficient to meet the herd demand and, second, the ratio of forage consumed to forage produced. Bruen, Michael 195 11:40 am | #854 | Adapting towards climate change: A whole-farm approach C Niklaus Lehmann, Robert Finger, ETH Zurich This study optimizes farm management decisions under different climate and water Chen, Yun 200 policy scenarios by means of a bioeconomic whole-farm model and genetic algorithms. Confalonieri, Roberto 188 The developed modeling framework is applied to a region in Switzerland where water Cord, Anna 200 scarcity already is a problem in summer months. Cuddy, Susan 195 12:00 am | #699 | Adaptation strategies for New Zealand dairy farms under climate change scenarios D Electra Kalaugher1, Pierre Beukes², Anthony Clark², Janet F. Bornman³, 1University of Waikato, ²DairyNZ, ³Curtin University Deeb, Rasha 190 We have analysed climate change impacts and potential adaptation options for five Donatelli, Marcello 193 dairy farms located in different regions of New Zealand, including both tactical and strategic adaptation strategies. The results illustrate some complexities in analysing climate F change in agricultural systems. Flörke, Martina 197 12:20 pm | #427 | Agent-based modeling of agricultural adaptation to climate change Formetta, Giuseppe 192 in a mountainous area of Southwest Germany Christian Troost1, German Calberto Sanchez1, Thomas Berger1, Joachim Ingwersen1, Eckart Priesack², Kirsten Warrach-Sagi1, Teresa Walter1, 1Universität Hohenheim, ²Helmholtz Center G München Greenwood, Ashley 199 We present an agent-based model to simulate short-term adaptation to climate change Grimm, Volker 198 adaptation in agriculture of the Central Swabian Alps, considering climate effects on crop yields,crop rotation options, available time for fieldwork and market prices. H 12:40 pm | #968 | Drivers of change in the Southern European agriculture: online participatory approaches for the analysis of planned and autonomous adaptation strategies Helbig, Carolin 202 Dragana Bojovic, Laura Bonzanigo, Carlo Giupponi, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice Hinkel, Jochen 198 This research proposes online participatory tools and web-based decision support sys- Huang, Shaochun 193 tem as a means to allow the involvement of numerous stakeholders in multi-criteria Huot, Etienne 200 decision-making processes for identification, assessment, and evaluation of water saving Hurford, Anthony 195 measures as adaptation to occurring changes. h 1:00 pm End of Session C1 h 1:00 pm Lunch

194 Programme Session I2.2 Thur • July 5

Session I2.2: Tools and methods for making decisions with uncertainty and complexity Session I2.2 9:00 am | #198 | The Water and Energy facilities InfoRmation System (WEIRS) Bld. 4.0 | 102 Juan Arevalo, Beatriz Vidal, Cesar Carmona-Moreno, Vanessa Fourcaudot, Marco Giacomassi, Paolo Mainardi, Joint Research Centre The Water and Energy Facilities are programs from the European Commission for fund- Stream I: ing projects in African, Caribbean and Pacific countries. Here we explain the architecture Issues in Water details of a decision support tool for assessing the features of projects and their relevance Resources to their national contexts. Management 9:20 am | #514 | Using a decision support tool to set up cost effective programs of Session chairs: measures as required by the Water Framework Directive Julien Harou, Steven Broekx, VITO / Ghent University Andrea We discuss a web based tool built to support the development of cost effective programs Castelletti, of measures to reach good water status in Belgium. This tool deals with cost-effective- Manuel Pulido- ness analysis, disproportionate costs and this for different scales and water aspects as Velazquez & water quality, sediments and floods. Ejaz Qureshi 9:40 am | #459 | A variable-structure catchment model as the engine for a water quality decision support tool facilitating scientific debate and collaboration. Michael Bruen, Eva Mockler, University College Dublin Collaboration between experts in different disciplines can be difficult and water is central to many environmental issues. A hydrological model with a flexible structure is developed that allows scientists to alter the catchment hydraulic connectivity, adding personal knowledge and field experience. 10:00 am | #710 | Exploring the utility of risk management as an integrating framework for the development and application of water resource planning tools Susan Cuddy, Carmel Pollino, CSIRO Land and Water This paper explores the utility of adopting ISO 31000:2009 risk management guidelines, and some of the consequences of the definition of risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. It provides a synoptic overview of how this changes our approach to risk and uncertainty modelling. 10:20 pm | #981 | Impacts of management options on water deficits, losses and livelihoods in the Jaguaribe Basin of North East Brazil Anthony Hurford, Ivana Huskova, Evgenii Matrosov, Julien Harou, University College London We describe modelling of the impacts of different management options in the Jaguaribe basin, in one of Brazil’s most challenging regions for water management. We investigate both inter-basin transfer options and changing the current policy requiring the protection of municipal demands. 10:40 am Coffee break

195 Programme Thur • July 5 Session I2.2

10:20 am | #530 | Many-Objective Robust Decision Making for Water Supply Portfolio Planning Under Deep Uncertainty Joseph Kasprzyk1, Shanthi Nataraj², Patrick Reed1, Robert Lempert², 1Pennsylvania State Uni- versity, ²RAND Corporation Using a single estimate of uncertainties and classical benefit-cost analysis leads to critical biases for decisionmaking. Our framework helps to overcome these issues, by generat- ing solutions that consider multiple complex planning objectives and are robust to many plausible states of the world. 11:40 am | #734 | ILMS – a Software Platform for Integrated Environmental Management Sven Kralisch1, Bettina Böhm1, Christoph Böhm², Carsten Busch³, Manfred Fink1, Christian Fischer1, Christian Schwartze1, Peter Selsam, Franziska Zander, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel1, 1Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, ²H.G. Geo Data Solutions GmbH, ³codematix GmbH This paper presents the Integrated Land Management System (ILMS) - a modular software platform that is addressing the demands of environmental system assessment. Joining state-of-the-art methods and interfaces it covers the related work tasks in a flexible, user-friendly workflow. 12:00 am | #822 | Dealing with insufficient data: metadata modelling and stochastic exploration of the decision space David Nijssen, Andreas Schumann, University of Bochum IWRM requires selecting optimal measures and quantifying their effects. We present a technique to objectively compare measures across sectors and compartments. Maximis- ing water saving goals despite the lack of detailed socio-economic data was achieved by optimisation of an “acceptance estimate”. 9:40 am | #497 | The development of a Water Quality Systems Assessment Model (WQSAM) and its application to the Buffalo River Catchment, Eastern Cape, South Af- rica Andrew Slaughter, Denis Hughes, Sukhmani Mantel, Institute for Water Research This paper presents the initial development of a Water Quality Systems Assessment Mod- el WQSAM. The value of the model in addressing many of the current water resource management shortcomings in South Africa is presented. h 1:00 pm End of Session I2.2 h

1:00 pm Lunch

196 Programme Session I3 cont. Thur • July 5

Session I3 (cont.): Application of scenarios to support national and international environmental policies to govern freshwater resources Session I3 cont. 9:00 am | #343 | Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: the Jucar Bld. 1.0 L. Hall Basin, Spain Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín, Vicente Chirivella Osma, Jose E. Capilla Roma, Universitat Politèc- nica de València, IIAMA Stream I: This paper presents a review of official climate change scenarios in the Jucar Basin, Spain Issues in Water for the period 2010– 2040, and its impact on water resources. The results obtained show Resources the need to apply downscaling methodologies able to reproduce spatial patterns of rain- Management fall. Session chairs: 9:20 am | #559 | Constraints of future freshwater resources in the Upper Niger Basin – Ilona Baerlund & Has the human-environmental system of the Inner Niger Delta a chance to survive? Katri Rankinen Stefan Liersch, Hagen Koch, Valentin Aich, Julia Reinhardt, Samuel Fournet, Fred Hatter- mann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research The paper describes the development and application of climate change and reservoir management scenarios in the Upper Niger Basin in West Africa. It shows the consequences of freshwater constraints in the Inner Niger Delta for the ecosystem and the human population with regard to food production. 9:40 am | #747 | Modelling scenarios as a link between research and policy making Martina Flörke, University of Kassel Adaptation to climate change should not be discussed in isolation because socio-economic and energy developments as well as land use change dominate the dynamics of water scarcity. Therefore, the focus of any policy intervention should be on socio-economic drivers, land use and production patterns. 10:00 am | General discussion on key questions: Issue of scale: Is bridging scales an issue in your scenario work? How do you transfer your scenario process from small scale to larger scale or vice versa? Issue of certainty: How much information is “enough”? How do you deal with uncertainty? Issue of policy connection: How does or could your research contribute to policy making? Who is your stakeholder? h 10:40 am End of Session I3 h 10:40 am Coffee break

197 Programme Thur • July 5 Workshop H4

Workshop H4: Opportunities and challenges of modelling for resil- Workshop H4 ience thinking and ecosystem stewardship Bld. 1.0 | L. Hall 11:20 am | MORE – MOdeling for Resilience thinking and Ecosystem stewardship Maja Schlüter, Birgit Müller, Karin Frank Presentation of position paper Stream H: 11:30 am | Invited Comments Socio-Environ- Volker Grimm: mental Systems Simple models of complex systems? The paradox of modelling resilience

Workshop chairs: Örjan Bodin: Maja Schlueter, Linking structures and processes to model emergence Karin Frank & Birgit Mueller Christian Kuhlicke: Reflexive Modelling: Some challenges for resilience thinking and ecosystem stewardship

Marco Janssen: The role of social complexity in integrated models on resilience

Jochen Hinkel: Resilience – a minimalistic model 12:10 pm | Open Discussion h 1:00 pm End of Workshop H4 h 1:00 pm Lunch

198 Programme Session F3.2 • Workshop F7 Thur • July 5

Session F3.2 (cont.): Simulating environmental change – quality, quantity and validation: Examples focusing on hydrological aspects Session F3.2 9:00 am | #752 | Modelling the impact of climate change on irrigation area demand in Bld. 2.0 Winterg. the Jordan River region Florian Wimmer1, Jennifer Koch², Rüdiger Schaldach1, Janina Onigkeit1, Christian Folberth³, 1Center for Environmental Systems Research - CESR, University of Kassel, ²Oregon State Uni- Stream F: versity, ³Eawag Ressource We present an approach to model the impact of changing climate and socio-economy Management and on the demand for irrigation area in the Jordan River region. Our results show that cli- Sustainability mate change can increase the demand for irrigation area by 25%. However, the impact of growing food demand might be much stronger. Session chairs: Joerg Priess, 9:20 am | #410 | Integrating site- and regional-scale data in assessing the hydrological Subhashree Das & impact of afforestation using rainfall-runoff curves. Christian Schweitzer Ashley Greenwood, Richard Benyon, Patrick Lane, University of Melbourne Rainfall-runoff curves are derived using quantile regression and mean-annual data to assess the regional impacts of afforestation in Australia. A revised tanh function did not perform as well as the USDA model. Results are employed to validate the use of site-scale data in regional assessments. h 10:40 am End of Session F3.2 h 10:40 am Coffee break

Workshop F7: Understanding ecosystem services, multi-functional WorkshopSession F7 E1 cont. land use, trade-offs and uncertainty for policy support and land management Bld. 2.0 KubusWinterg. 1A 11:20 am | Introduction and welcome, aims of the workshop David Miller Stream F: 11:25 am | Invited position statements Ressource 11:50 am | General comments of feedback Management and Sustainability 12:00 am | Breakout discussions – To identify: (i) principal scientific challenges in informing policy and implementers (e.g. Workshop chairs: means of communication of risk and uncertainty), and (ii) examples of good practice in a David Miller, land use sector, geographic area Iain Brown & Keith Matthews 12:30 pm | Feedback from groups 12:40 pm | Wrap-up of key messages 12:50 pm | Next steps and concluding remarks h 1:00 pm End of Workshop F7 h 1:00 pm Lunch

199 Programme Thur • July 5 Session G1.1

Session G1.1: Analysis of data of remote sensing data for environ- Session G1.1 mental models – with special emphasis on “remote sensing” Bld. 7.1 | 201 9:00 am | #671 | Spatial modelling of potential soil water retention under floodplain inundation using remote sensing and GIS Yun Chen1, Bing Wang², Carmel Pollino1, Linda Merrin1, 1CSIRO Land and Water, ²Inner Mon- golia Agricultural University Stream G: Knowledge, Data This study developed a methodology for estimating potential soil water retention un- and Semantic der floodplain inundation from a ecologically significant flood return period by coupling Processing for remote sensing and GIS with spatial hydrological modelling. The Macquarie Mashes in Environmental Australia were used as the case study area. Research 9:20 am | #345 | Suitability of land cover and remote sensing data for modelling species distributions Session chairs: Anna Cord1, Doris Klein², Franz Mora³, Stefan Dech², 1UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Isabelle Herlin, Research; ²German Aerospace Center (DLR), ³CONABIO (National Commission for the Knowl- Roberto San Jose, edge and Use of Biodiversity) Steffen Unger & The objective was to compare the suitability of a land cover classification and remote Dan Zachary sensing data for modeling species distributions. Model results were evaluated based on AUC and statistical deviance and revealed that the suitability of land cover data was dependent on species characteristics. 9:40 am | #528 | Image assimilation and motion estimation of geophysical fluids Etienne Huot1, Dominique Béréziat², Isabelle Herlin1,1Institut National en Recherche Informa- tique et Automatique, ²Université Pierre et Marie Curie Data assimilation is a well-known technique that is used for instance to improve fore- casts obtained by the Numerical Weather Prediction models. In the last ten years, image assimilation has been used for processing image sequences and deriving characteristic features such as motion fields. 10:00 am | #951 | Distributed validation of hydrological model using remote sensed data; the case of Mara river basin, Kenya Fidelis Kilonzo, Ann van Griensven, Willy Bauwens, Vrije Universiteit Brussel Remote sensed and observed data has been used to validate SWAT hydrological model simulation in a data scarce, complex ecosystems. Results indicate that the field observed data is able to distinguish stressed yield, while the remote sensed data correctly mirrors the profile of the simulated LAI. 10:20 am | #371 | Study of vegetation indices selection and changing detection thresholds in Land cover change detection assessment using change vector analysis Duy Nguyen1, Giang Tran1, Son Tong², 1Hanoi University of Mining and Geology, ²Space Tech- nology Institute The study of changing detection of land cover plays an important role in making the strategy of the managers. In this study, introduce CVA method. This paper proposes application to solve these two problems: the NDVI indices selection and changing detection threshold in changing detection assessment.

200 Programme Session G1.1 Thur • July 5

10:40 am | #468 | Comparison between the TRMM Product and Rainfall Interpolation for Prediction in Ungauged Catchments Supattra Visessri, Neil McIntyre, Imperial College London Comparing the performance of TRMM_3B42 against a customised rainfall interpolation technique accounting for both the effect of distance and elevation differences for estimating areal rainfall and relevant rainfall-flow indices at sub-basin scale for ungauged catchments. h 11:00 am End of Session G1.1 h 11:00 am Coffee break (actually 10:40–11:20 am)

201 Programme Thur • July 5 Session G1.2

Session G1.2: Integration of heterogeneous data and environmental Session G1.2 models – with special emphasis on “integration of data and models” Bld. 7.1 | 201 11:40 am | #799 | Geoinformation technologies in the identification of meandering section of the river Beata Wieczorek, UWM in Olsztyn Stream G: The aim of this study was to present the capabilities of using geoinformation technolo- Knowledge, Data gies in the process of outlining meandering section of the river. and Semantic 12:00 am | #914 | Virtual appliances for geospatial data processing Processing for Christian Schwartze, Friedrich-Schiller-University of Jena Environmental Research Virtualization is taking on a key role in various system architectures. Using the delineation of spatially distributed model entities, we will show how a so called Virtual Appliance Session chairs: can be set up in order to operate in virtual server environments and what kind of intuitive Steffen Unger, clients are possible. Isabelle Herlin, Ro- 12:20 pm | #924 | Monitoring the performance of Soft Sensors used in WWTPs by berto San Jose & means of Formal Verification Dan Zachary Luca Luccarini1, Dalila Pulcini2, Paola Mello3, Stefano Bragaglia3, Davide Sottara4, ENEA1, 2Po- litecnico di Milano, 3University of Bologna, 4Arizona State University We propose to deploy a soft sensor together with a dedicated monitoring sub-system that processes the inputs and the outputs of the sensor itself. This monitor uses a speciﬁc type of rules supporting the concept of “expectation”, applies some logic criteria to deﬁne whether a sensing is acceptable. 12:40 pm | #687 | Visual integration of diverse environmental data: A case study in Cen- tral Germany Carolin Helbig1, Karsten Rink1, Andreas Marx1, Joerg Priess1, Michael Frank², Olaf Kolditz1, 1Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, ²University of Applied Science Leipzig Land use and climate changes are some of the most important phenomena which will influence our life in the coming decades. To analyze these phenomena and the projections of their impact, we develop methods to visualize measured and simulated data from the fields of climate, land use, hydrology, etc. h 1:00 pm End of Session G1.2 h 1:00 pm Lunch

Workshop H5: On processes, patterns and interactions of urban shrinkage – how do we approach a challenging spatial development Workshop H5 using models? Bld. 7.1 | 301 Stream H: Socio-Environmental Systems 09:00 am | Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Sigrun Kabisch, Dieter Rink & Nina Schwarz h 10:40 am End of Workshop H5 h 10:40 am Coffee break

202 Programme Workshops G4 & TaToo Thur • July 5

Workshop G4: Machine learning for environmental data: concepts, applications, and software WorkshopSession G4 E1 cont. Stream G: Knowledge, Data and Semantic Processing for Environmental Research Bld. 7.1 Kubus| 301 1A 11:20 am | Mikhail Kanevski, Alexei Pozdnoukhov & Vasily Demyanov Lecture 1. Learning from environmental data Lecture 2. Spatial predictions of environmental data using machine learning algorithms Lecture 3. Software tools and case studies h 1:00 pm End of Workshop G4 h

Workshop TaToo: Bridging the discovery gap in environmental resources Worksh.Session TaToo E1 cont. 9:00 am | Gerald Schimak1, Giuseppe Avellino2, Sasa Nesic, Luca Petronziob3 & Andrea E. Riz- zoli3, 1AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Vienna, 2Telespazio, Rome, 3IDSIA – Dalle Kubus | KubusPC-P. 1A Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Lugano h 1:00 pm End of Workshop TaToo h 1:00 pm Lunch

203 Programme Thur • July 5

204 List of Presenters

205 206 A–E Index of Presenters

A C Abanda, Henry 115 Candelieri, Antonio 136, 182 Abrami, Geraldine 126, 160 Cao, Yang 129 Aguejdad, Rahim 180 Castellazzi, Marie S. 123, 146f Alexandrov, Georgii 166 Celio, Enrico 159 Alexandrov, Gleb 165 Chen, Yun 200 Alferes, Janelcy 168 Cierkens, Katrijn 116 Ames, Dan 130 Comas, Joaquim 119 Arevalo, Juan 195 Confalonieri, Roberto 188 Arhonditsis, George B. 125 Conruyt, Noel 182 Arnold, Thorsten 99, 129, 174 Cord, Anna 200 Ascough II, James C. 129, 179, 181 Cormont, Anouk 133 Avenhaus, Wibke 100 Corominas, Lluís 134 B Crols, Tomas 123 Badri, Mohammad Ali 171 Cuddy, Susan 195 Bailly, Denis 127 D Baki, Sotiria 134 Dascalu, Sergiu 129 Balbi, Stefano 105 David, Olaf 138, 139 Bangash, Rubab Fatima 174 de Rigo, Daniele 137 Baroni, Gabriele 176 Deeb, Rasha 171 Bauböck, Roland 185 Delden, Hedwig van 122, 175 Beh, Eva 135 Dessai, Suraje 117 Berger, Thomas 125 Donatelli, Marcello 138, 167, 193 Bernard, Lars 125 Doukari, Omar 164 Blocken, Bert 109 Drees, Romina 132 Bodin, Örjan 198 Drešković, Nusret 108 Bojovic, Dragana 194 Drouet, Laurent 171 Borsuk, Mark 113, 125, 165 Dugge, Jürnjakob 135 Bossa, Yaovi Aymar 169 Duinen, Rianne van 106 Božić, Bojan 115 Düspohl, Meike 160 Branger, Flora 161 E Bregaglio, Simone 137 Edmonds, Bruce 125 Brémond, Pauline 132 Erechtchoukova, Marina G. 169 Briegel, Ramón 105 Esch, Leen Van 169 Brocca, Lucca 168 Espallargas, Manel Poch 119 Broekx, Steven 195 Bruen, Michael 195 Bui, Dieu 161 Busch, Jonathan 100 207 Index of Presenters F–K

F H Fath, Brian 103 Haase, Annegret 133 Filatova, Tatiana 132 Haase, Dagmar 126, 133 Fink, Manfred 168 Haasnoot, Marjolijn 100 Fiorese, Giulia 166 Hartmann, Holly 173 Fischer, Christian 176 Heinonen, Johannes 107 Flörke, Martina 197 Helbig, Carolin 202 Foglia, Emanuela 171 Hernandez-Santiago, Cuitlahuac 131, 180 Formetta, Giuseppe 192 Herrera, Manuel 182 Fu, Baihua 117 Hewitt, Richard 125 Fuglsang, Morten 131 Hinkel, Jochen 198 Fukiharu, Toshitaka 165 Hipsey, Matthew 103 G Hirsch, Robert M. 159 Gal, Gideon 176 Hostetler, Steven 99 Garneau, Cyril 169 Hrebicek, Jiri 111 Ghanbarpour, Reza 174 Huang, Shaochun 193 Ghisla, Anne 164 Huot, Etienne 200 Gibert, Karina 182f Hurford, Anthony 195 Gillet, François 166 Huskova, Ivana 174 Giordano, Raffaele 160 I Giricheva, Eugeniya 102 Imani, Maryam Astaraie 134 Giupponi, Carlo 125 Inan, Asu 162 Gonzalez, Javier E. Holguin 134 Izquierdo, Joaquín 120, 183 Gousseau, Pierre 110 J Greenwood, Ashley 199 Janssen, Marco 99, 198 Grelot, Frédéric 132 Janssen, Sander 115 Grieken, Martijn van 178 Janssen, Wendy 108 Grimm, Volker 198 Jiang, Sanyuan 169 Groeneveld, Jürgen 105 Johansson, Lasse 187 Gualtieri, Carlo 109, 110 Jolma, Ari 186 Guillaume, Joseph 159 K Guimarães, Maria Helena 125 Kadlec, Jiri 173 Gupta, Tushar 137 Kalaugher, Electra 194 Gutiérrez-Pérez, Joanna 182 Kasprzyk, Joseph 196 Khan, Nasreen 112 Khosrovyan, Alla 110, 168 Kilonzo, Fidelis 200

208 K–P Index of Presenters

Klein, Tommy 193 M Koch, Friedrich Johannes 170 Maier, Holger 188 Koch, Jennifer 179 Maiorano, Andrea 193 Kok, Jean-Luc De 122 Mannina, Giorgio 116 Konstantinou, Zoi 128 Marohn, Carsten 123 Kopp, Steve 130 Marsili-Libelli, Stefano 115, 126 Koutiva, Ifigeneia 105 Martin, Cristina 120 Kraatz, Simone 175 Martin, Laura 127 Kraft, Philipp 179 Martin-Clouaire, Roger 194 Kragt, Marit 126 Massmann, Carolina 176f Kraker, Joop De 160 Matejicek, Lubos 163, 186 Kralisch, Sven 138, 196 Maué, Patrick 186 Krol, Oliver 119 McKibbin, Robert 109 Krüger, Carsten 118 Medina, Neiler 122, 162 Krywkow, Jörg 125 Mertz, Ole 153 Kuhlicke, Christian 198 Mignatti, Andrea 119 Kusmierz, Ralf 190 Mihailovic, Dragutin T. 108 Kwakkel, Jan 99, 177 Miller, David 159 L Millington, James 105, 184 Lalande, Nathalie 181 Muerth, Markus 117, 191 Lample, Michel 191 Muhammad, Naeem 137 Landuyt, Dries 118 Murillo, Carlos Osorio 162 Lardy, Romain 165, 166 Murphy, Thomas 125 Lauf, Steffen 123 Muth, David 192 Lautenbach, Sven 117, 118 N Le, Quang Bao 106, 180 Nabel, Julia Esther Marlene Sophia 116 Lechner, Alex 116 Nesic, Sasa 114 Lehikoinen, Annukka 172 Neverova, Galina 102 Lehmann, Niklaus 194 Nguyen, Duy 200 Leopold, Ulrich 117 Nguyen, Khoi 161 Liersch, Stefan 197 Nijssen, David 196 Lindim, Claudia 112 Nossent, Jiri 176 Lopez-Inojosa, Thais 185 P Lorenz, Marco 122 Parker, Dawn 106 Luccarini, Luca 119 Parry, Hazel 99 Passuello, Ana 120 Peeters, Aviva 131

209 Index of Presenters P–T

Peña-Haro, Salvador 138 S Pérez-Martín, Miguel Ángel 178, 197 Salvadore, Elga 191 Perraud, Jean-Michel 192 Sànchez-Marrè, Miquel 120 Pesquer, Lluís 163 Sauvage, Sabine 109 Polhill, Gary 114 Savelyeva, Elena 190 Pooyandeh, Majeed 127 Scharler, Ursula 102 Priess, Joerg 179 Scherb, Hagen 190 Prishchepov, Alexander V. 122 Scheuermann, Sebastian 115 Proß, Benjamin 116 Schlobinski, Sascha 167 Pulcini, Dalila 202 Schmid, Josef 127 Pundt, Hardy 166 Schmitz, Oliver 114 Q Scholten, Huub 114 Quinn, Nigel W.T. 162 Schulz, Michael 130 R Schwartze, Christian 202 Rajkovic, Borovoj 108 Schwarz, Nina 133 Ramin, Elham 172 Seidl, Roman 159 Ramos-Martínez, Eva 183 Senthilkumar, Kalimuthu 193 Ramponi, Rubina 108 Shanin, Vladimir 137 Rankinen, Katri 178 Shokravi, Samaneh 177 Regneri, Mario 135 Sidorenkov, Victor 188 Reis, Lara Aleluia 111 Sieber, Stefan 159 Reis, Stefan 111 Siegenthaler - Le Drian, Colombe 103 Reusser, Dominik E. 100, 165 Sips, Mike 186 Reutemann, Peter 183 Sirmacek, Beril 104 Revutskaya, Oksana 102, 104 Slaughter, Andrew 196 Richter, Otto 180 Sottara, Davide 121 Riechel, Mathias 135 Sousa, Luís de 120 Righini, Gaia 162 Srivastava, Amit 185 Rink, Karsten 191 Stefanova, Anastassi 170 Rode, Michael 168 Steinle, Susanne 111 Rodriguez, Juan Pablo 135 Stocker, Markus 114 Rojas, Andrea Pineda 171 Stosius, Annette 101 Roosenschoon, Onno 128 Svane, Örjan 100 Ropero, Rosa Fernandez 123 T Rovenskaya, Elena 103 Taillandier, Patrick 106 Rutledge, Daniel 124 Taliun, Andrej 163 Termini, Donatella 109 Troost, Christian 194

210 V–Z Index of Presenters

U Zhu, Xuan 173 Uiterwijk, Michel 172 Zhulu Lin 150 V Zoi Konstantinou 128 Vance, Tiffany 130 Zurita-Milla, Raul 163 Veisi, Hadi 126 Verweij, Peter 160 Villamor, Grace 106 Villarreal, Miguel 112 Vink, Cornelis (Kees) 172 Visessri, Supattra 201 Voigt, Kristina 190 W Watson, Kym 138 Watts, Christopher 133 Webb, Angus 186 Wendy, Merritt 113 Wieczorek, Beata 202 Wieland, Ralf 191 Wiemann, Stefan 111 Wijermans, Nanda 132 Wimberly, Michael 112 Wimmer, Florian 199 Windhorst, David 107 Wortmann, Michel 175 Wrobel, Markus 173 X Xiaoxing Qi 149 Xu, Tingbao 185 Y Yalew, Seleshi 179 Yang Cao 129 Z Zamani, Mojtaba 181 Zavalishin, Nikolay 188 Zhang, Gaofeng 192 Zhanli Sun 154 Zhdanova, Oksana 102, 103

211 Imprint

Imprint UFZ 2012 Layout: F&U confirm Leipzig Print: DDF Digitaldruckfabrik Leipzig Photographs / illustrations: UFZ, Carlos Zurilla, Zoo Leipzig, Moritzbastei Leipzig, 2012 GeoBasis-DE/BKG Google, Fotolia.com, Ogarit Uhlmann, private

212 Conference Evaluation Form Please, be as kind as to provide your feedback concerning the iEMSs 2012:

Please indicate your position (please tick): Experienced researcher, professional, senior scientist Mid stage career researcher, professional (PostDoc, etc.) Ph.D. Student, Student Do not fit to these categories

How useful was this conference for you on a scale from 1 (not useful) to 5 (very useful)? ......

How would you rate the quality of the congress organization (please underline your choice)? Before the congress: excellent – very good – fair – bad – poor – to less experience to judge During the congress: excellent – very good – fair – bad – poor – to less experience to judge

Further comments: ...... Please, name three things you enjoyed the most concerning this iEMSs congress: ...... Please, name three things you enjoyed the least concerning this iEMSs congress: ...... Comments and suggestions for the organisers of this year´s iEMSs congress: ......

I visited former iEMSs congresses (please tick): No Yes, I visited ...... congresses (please fill in the number of congresses you attended)

Please, return the completed form to the “feedback-box” at the reception desk! Thank you very much for your feedback!

213