2012 state of downtown DowntownDC Business Improvement District purpose of the state of downtown The State of Downtown report presents the facts about the Downtown economy in order to better inform decisions for many stakeholders: DowntownDC BID members (the General Services Administra- tion, private property owners and tenants), investors, developers, retailers, brokers, theaters, museums, table of non-GSA federal government officials and the DC government’s elected officials and staff. The State of Downtown report collects historic data to highlight trends and compare DC to our regional contents and national competitors. Comparisons are important to gauge competitive threats and opportunities for improvement. Year in Review 2 Current Development 14 Employment 22 Office Market 28 Population & Housing 36 Hotels, Tourism & Conventions 42 Culture & Entertainment 50 Retail & Restaurants 56 Transportation 60 DC Financial Overview 64 Downtown Fiscal Impact 68 Regional Competition 70 ON THE COVER ABOVE A view of the DowntownDC BID Chinatown’s Friendship Archway at area down F Street, NW, 7th and H streets, NW. looking west. regional impact The DowntownDC Business MONTGOMERY COUNTY Improvement District had the following impact on the region at the end of 2012: Maryland n 0.1% of land area n 0.15% of population n 2% of retail space DOWNTOWNDC n 6% of jobs DC BID Virginia n 9% of hotel rooms Falls ARLINGTON n 9% of museums Church COUNTY Fairfax n 9% of theaters PRINCE Alexandria n 6% of Zagat-rated restaurants GEORGE’S COUNTY FAIRFAX n 14% of 2000-2012 office building COUNTY development and renovation SF n 18% of total private and govern- ment office space n 14% of Metrorail exits n 50% of professional sports teams district impact Woodley Columbia Park Adams Heights Howard Morgan University The DowntownDC Business Kalorama Improvement District had the Eckington following impact on Washington, Dupont Logan Circle Circle DC at the end of 2012: Georgetown Walter E. Shaw Washington Convention NoMa Gallaudet n 1.3% of population Center University n 2% of land area West End Mount Vernon CBD Triangle n 7% of retail space George n 29% of 1997-2012 building devel- Washington University DowntownDC opment and renovation investment White Foggy Bottom House BID n 17% of local tax and other revenues Union Station n 17% of museums n 23% of theater seats NATIONAL MALL US Capitol Capitol Lincoln Washington Hill n 15% of Zagat-rated restaurants Memorial Monument n 25% of jobs Tidal Basin Hill n 25% of Metrorail exits East Southwest Jefferson W n 38% of total private and govern- a Waterfront Memorial sh in Capitol ment office space g to Riverfront n n 35% of hotel rooms C Navy Yard h a Nationals Virginia East n n Ballpark Potomac e Park l P o t o m Poplar a c Point Anacostia Fort R iv McNair e r DowntownDC BID Center City 0 N 1 MILE The fundamentals of the DowntownDC Business Improvement District (DowntownDC BID) area and DC economies are strong. 2012 was a solid year, even though the DowntownDC BID area experienced slight year performance declines in five out of the seven economic sectors covered in this report. The overall DC economy performed slightly better than the in review DowntownDC BID area economy. DC maintained its 24.1% market share of regional employment, and grew its market share of regional population to 10.9% from 10.8%. (Thousands) (Thousands) DC Employment 726 732 DC Population 632 800 800 616 602 619 802 600 497 600 650 712 638 487 400 400 279 200 200 0 0 10009080706050 11 12 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 11 12 Percent of DC Area Employment Percent of DC Area Population 100% (Region as defined by the Office of Management and Budget in 2003) 86% 80% 60% 56% 49% 47% 60% 40% 38% 40% 24.3% 12% 10.9% 24.0% 24.1% 20% 19% 20% 10.8% 0 0 10009080706050 11 12 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 11 12 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University Sources: US Census and the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University The DowntownDC BID area and DC economies are more stable than those of other large American cities; they experience less of an economic decline in a recession but less growth in an expansion. As a result, the performance of several economic sectors in the DowntownDC BID area and DC declined in 2012 relative to several other large American cities as the national economic cycle continued to improve and the DC region experienced lower growth. The DowntownDC BID area and DC’s performance levels in the employment, office and hotel markets declined relative to New York City, Boston, Denver, Houston and San Francisco. DC, however, held its own in the market rate multi-family housing sector with strong apartment rents and occupancy, condominium pricing, and new building starts. 2 DowntownDC Business Improvement District • 2012 State of Downtown Year in Review Year The DowntownDC BID area continues to be one of the city’s economic and fiscal engines, generating employment opportunities for all DC residents and generating a net fiscal impact of $690 million, or 17% of DC gross local revenues. Combined with the Golden Triangle BID area, Downtown generated a net fiscal impact of more than $1 billion dollars, or 25% of DC gross local revenues, which is equal to 125% of the DC non-charter public school budget. The DowntownDC BID and DC continue to be highly ranked as an investment market by both domestic and foreign investors. 2012 Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate Rankings Top 5 U.S. Cities 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 New York City 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 San Francisco 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 2 3 3 Washington DC 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 Houston 4 - - - 5 - - - - - - - - - - Boston 5 4 3 4 - - - - - - - 3 3 4 4 Los Angeles - 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 - - - - Seattle - - - - - 5 5 - - - - - - - - San Diego - - - - - - - 5 - - - - - - - Chicago - - - - - - - - 5 5 4 4 - 5 5 Miami/Ft Lauderdale - - - - - - - - 5 - - - - - - Atlanta - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 - 5 Top 5 Global Cities 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 New York City 1 1 1 3 3 1 2 3 4 4 4 2 London 2 2 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 San Francisco 3 5 - - - - - - - - - - Washington DC 4 3 2 2 1 2 4 2 1 1 1 3 Houston 5 - - - - - - - - - - - Sao Paulo - 4 - - - - - - - - - - Paris - - 4 4 - 4 3 4 5 3 3 2 Shanghai - - 5 - 5 5 - - - - - - Tokyo - - - 5 4 - 5 5 3 - - 4 Los Angeles - - - - - - - - - 5 - - Milan - - - - - - - - - - 5 - Data for 2000, 1999 and 1998 Boston - - - - - - - - - - - 5 was not available. The unknown impact of sequestration and future federal government action to reduce the federal deficit and slow the growth of federal debt is casting a long shadow over the DowntownDC BID area and DC economies. Due to these uncertainties, along with the significant regional increase in multi-family housing starts and the long-term trend of fewer square feet (SF) per office worker, an era of intense competition with Suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia is projected to last for several years. The DowntownDC BID area and DC’s major competitive advantages remain: n Proximity to the federal government n Best regional access to the regional workforce n Best access to mass transit n High quality culinary, cultural and entertainment amenities 3 major impacts The following events in 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 are having a major impact on the DowntownDC BID area economy: n There was moderate job growth in the DowntownDC BID area. The DowntownDC BID area has a high concentration of professional and business services, which had slight growth. In DC, educational and health services jobs had the most growth in 2012. Because those jobs are located outside of the DowntownDC BID area, the rest of DC had a higher employment growth rate. Higher office-using job growth is required to revive the office market, which is responsible for 15% of the city’s gross local revenue. As of December 31, 2012, the number of new office jobs needed to restore office market equilibrium with a 9% vacancy rate in the DowntownDC BID area and DC is equal to several years of typical office- using job growth. n The city’s strong residential growth is fueling increased retail and restaurant demand. This residential growth is strongly supported by the large number of jobs in DC relative to the number of housing units: 732,000 jobs compared to 303,000 housing units. n Of particular concern is the decline in occupied office space between year-end 2011 and year-end 2012 (also known as negative absorption). The negative absorption in the DowntownDC BID area during this time was 547,000 square feet (SF), representing 97% of DC’s overall negative absorption of 567,000 SF. In addition, Suburban Maryland had negative The city unveiled its first-ever economic absorption of 250,000 SF and Northern Virginia had negative absorption development of 2.5 million SF. In the first quarter of 2013, DC had slight positive strategy in 2012. absorption, while Suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia had a combined 332,000 SF of negative absorption. Vacancy rates rose in all three markets. New Office Workers Needed to Re-establish Office Market Equilibrium 40,000 Office Workers DC DowntownDC BID Area 35,800 workers at 150 SF per worker 30,000 20,600 21,500 workers at 250 SF per worker 20,000 22,700 9,000 workers at 150 SF per worker 10,000 2,500 1,600 5,400 workers at 250 SF per worker 0 1Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 250 SF per worker Projected decline from 250 SF to 150 SF per worker (1) Sources: Cushman and Wakefield and the DowntownDC BID (1) This push for efficiency accelerated after 2010.