The U.S. Navy in the World (1970-1980): Context for U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies and Concepts

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The U.S. Navy in the World (1970-1980): Context for U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies and Concepts The U.S. Navy in the World (1970-1980): Context for U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies and Concepts Peter M. Swartz with Karin Duggan MISC D0026418.A1/Final December 2011 CNA is a not-for-profit organization whose professional staff of over 700 provides in-depth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders choose the best courses of action. Founded in 1942, CNA operates the Institute for Public Research and the Center for Naval Analyses, the federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. CNA Strategic Studies (CSS), created in 2000, conducts high-quality research on and analysis of issues of strategic, regional, and policy importance. CSS’ analyses are based on objective, rigorous examination and do not simply echo conventional wisdom. CSS provides analytic support to U.S. Government organizations and the governments of partner countries. CSS also maintains notable foundation- sponsored and self-initiated research programs. CSS includes a Strategic Initiatives Group, an International Affairs Group, and a Center for Stability and Development. The Strategic Initiatives Group (SIG) looks at issues of U.S. national security, and military strategy, policy and operations, with a particular focus on maritime and naval aspects. SIG employs experts in historical analyses, futures planning, and long-term trend analysis based on scenario planning, to help key decision makers plan for the future. SIG specialties also include issues related to regional and global proliferation, deterrence theory, threat mitigation, and strategic planning for combating threats from weapons of mass destruction. The Strategic Studies Division is led by Vice President and Director Dr. Eric V. Thompson, who is available at 703-824-2243 and on e-mail at [email protected]. The executive assistant to the Vice President and Director is Ms. Rebecca Martin, at 703-824-2604. The principal author of this study thanks especially Karin Duggan for graphic assistance; Loretta Ebner for administrative assistance; Gregory Kaminski, Laurie Ann Lakatosh, and Rhea Stone for library assistance; and Dana Smith and Anwar Fry for production assistance. A full listing of substantive contributors can be found in Peter M. Swartz and Karin Duggan, U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies and Concepts: Introduction and Background: Volume I, (D0026421.A1, December 2011). A full listing of all volumes in the CNA Navy Strategy series can be found on the inside back cover of this document. Approved for distribution: December 2011 Dr. W. Eugene Cobble, Jr. Director, Strategic Initiatives Group This document represents the best opinion of the author at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the Department of the Navy. Approved for public release. Distribution unlimited. Copies of this document can be obtained through the Defense Technical Information Center at www.dtic.mil or contact CNA Document Control and Distribution Section at 703-824-2123. Copyright © 2012 CNA This work was created in the performance of Federal Government Contract Number N00014-11-D-0323. Any copyright in this work is subject to the Government's Unlimited Rights license as defined in DFARS 252.227-7013 and/or DFARS 252.227-7014. The reproduction of this work for commercial purposes is strictly prohibited. Nongovernmental users may copy and distribute this document in any medium, either commercially or noncommercially, provided that this copyright notice is reproduced in all copies. Nongovernmental users may not use technical measures to obstruct or control the reading or further copying of the copies they make or distribute. Nongovernmental users may not accept compensation of any manner in exchange for copies. All other rights reserved. Contents Global trends . 2 The world . 6 The nation . 15 US national security policies . .19 US combatant & component commands . 28 US national security & defense directives . 29 USN dollars, numbers, capabilities, goals . 31 USN deployments, operations & exercises . 33 State of the Navy . 34 Navy strategy leadership . 47 Naval policy & strategy literature . 48 Public USN intelligence documents . .53 1 US Navy basing . 53 US military sealift . 56 US-flag merchant marine . 60 US shipbuilding industrial base . .63 US military department & service comparisons . 66 US Navy-US Marine Corps relations . .67 US Navy-US Coast Guard relations . 76 US Navy-US Air Force relations . 78 US Navy-US Army relations . 89 US Navy-foreign navy relations . 93 End of the 1970s: State of the Navy . 99 2 1 US Navy capstone documents of the 1970s 1970 Project SIXTY 1974 Missions of the U.S. Navy 1975 Strategic Concept for the U.S. Navy 1977 NWP 1: Strategic Concepts of the U.S. Navy 1978 NWP 1: Strategic Concepts of the U.S. Navy (Rev. A) 1978 Sea Plan 2000 1979 CNO Strategic Concepts & The Future of U.S. Sea Power 3 1970s: The world, the nation & the Navy World Events Year Administration SECNAV CNO Capstone Document Soviet Okean 70 1970 Nixon Laird Chafee Zumwalt Project SIXTY NPT treaty Seabed Treaty 1971 India-Pakistan War Pres. Nixon to China 1972 INCSEA/ABM Treaty US Vietnam Pullout 1973 Richardson Warner USN-Soviet Navy Med Missions of the U.S. Navy Confrontation 1974 Schlesinger India nuclear test Ford Middendorf Holloway South Vietnam 1975 Strategic Concept falls Rumsfeld for the U.S. Navy (S) USSR-Egypt 1976 Treaty cancelled NWP 1 Panama Canal Treaty 1977 Carter Brown Claytor NWP 1 Strategic Concepts (Rev. A) Deng leads China Sea Plan 2000 (S) 1978 Camp David Accords Shah of Iran falls 1979 Hayward CNO Strategic Concepts Taiwan Relations Act & Future of U.S. Sea Soviets Invade Power Afghanistan 1980 Hidalgo Desert One debacle Mariel (Cuba) boatlift 4 2 Comparing national economic power (1970-1980) 5 Growth of world maritime trade (1970-1980) 6 3 Comparing national defense spending (1970-1980) 7 1970s: Global Trends in Armed Conflict* 8 4 1970s: Global trends in armed conflict Chart based on a rating scale developed at Center for Systemic Peace, Center for Global Policy, George Mason University Societal warfare the predominant mode of warfare since the mid-1950s Increased during the 1970s Low level of interstate warfare since World War II Moderate increase began in late 1970s Steep rise in number, lethality of terrorism incidents throughout the decade 9 1970s: Natural disasters reported 10 5 1970s: The world (I) Growing international system UN membership: 1970: 127 1980: 154 Interstate security competition dominated global affairs Bi-polar international system: US & USSR Two large alliance & economic systems: “1st & 2nd worlds” Superpower political, military & economic enmity & rivalry throughout the world, including the global commons (sea, air, space) & especially in “3rd world” Leonid Brezhnev led USSR (since 1964) Cold War continuing; detente in early-mid 70s Increasingly violent world; # of autocratic gov’ts grew Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) (1970) But 1st Indian test of nuclear weapons (1974), 1st S. African test (1979), Pakistani nuclear weapons development 11 1970s: The world (II) US increasingly connected economically w/ rest of world (ROW) “Group of Six” (G-6) formed as key global economic leadership forum (1975) US, UK, FRG, France, Italy, Japan Became “Group of Seven (G-7) (1976) Canada Low Soviet economic integration w/ ROW Negligible trade with US 12 6 1970s: The world (III) Significant growth in world seaborne trade volume 50% of world’s ships built in Far East; Western Europe share fell from 40% to 25%; US share in single digits World shipbuilding soared till 1973 oil shock, then plummeted Oil prices soared throughout the decade (from 1973) Oil price spikes: 1973-4 & 1979-80 Insignificant # of reported piracy incidents No central data collection point NGO at-sea anti-nuclear testing, anti-whaling ops (from 1971) Don’t Make a Wave Committee, later Greenpeace, Sea Shepherd 13 1970s: The world (IV) Suez Canal closed by Egypt (1967-1975) Many coastal states claimed vast territorial seas US tanker Manhattan NW Passage cruise sparked Canadian Arctic sovereignty concerns (1969) UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) negotiations (1973-1981) IMO international Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) (1974) Number of reported climatic & other natural disasters in the world triples World food crisis (1972-74) Shortages, price hikes led to famines, unrest 14 7 1970s: The world (V) USN the world’s dominant seapower; but increasing global Soviet Navy capabilities Dramatic Soviet Navy expansion & modernization under ADM Gorshkov (CinC since 1956) Coherent Soviet peacetime naval diplomacy & wartime sea denial/ strategic nuclear force strategies developed Small, fast, automated, titanium alloy deep-water Alfa-class SSNs (since 1969) Improved TU-22 Backfire w/ AS-4 ASUW missiles (from 1969) New Delta-class SSBNs w/ long-range SLBMs (from 1972) Kiev-class carriers (1975) 1st quiet SOVNAV SSN (Victor III) (1979) Anti-USN RORSAT & EORSAT space surveillance (from 1974) Increased Soviet Navy access to overseas facilities, e.g.: Guinea (1970), Cam Ranh Bay (1979) But lost access to Egypt (1976), Somalia (1977) 15 1970s: The world (VI) NATO strategy of “flexible response” (since 1968) France outside NATO military command structure (since 1966) US military no longer stationed in France France deployed her own SSBNs (from 1971) Most NATO allies denied US bases & airspace to resupply Israel during Yom Kippur War (1973) Greek-Turk
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