qr. 3. 2019 no. 10 ISSN 2543-9839

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@TheWarsawInstituteReview @WarsawReview @warsawinstitutereview Editorial

Dear Readers,

would like to kindly guide your attention to the newest issue of our quarterly, in which you will find articles by Polish and international authors describing ongoing conundrums on the international arena, as well as Ireferring to history and culture. An interview with the Ambassador of the Republic of Poland in Berlin, H.E. Prof. Andrzej Przyłębski, alongside Daniel Pogorzelski’s interview with John Guzlowki, as well as an article authored by Dr. Krzysztof Rak. Each of them uniquely elaborates distinct themes impelled by the Second World War. This year commemorated 80 years since Germany’s invasion into Poland – the assault which ignited the Second World War. A war, in which Poland’s actions saw her forever inscribed onto the pages of history as a nation of honor and faith which fought valiantly. The article by Mariusz Klarecki describes the deliberate and conscious policy of the Germans on the territories of Poland. The Nazis sought to eliminate the Jewish population during the occupation. On top of the unscrupulous annihilation of around 370 000 Varsovian Jews, the losses of this part of the city’s populace were severe also in looted works of art and antiques. Moreover, the ongoing developments at EU level are analyzed by Prof. Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse and Prof. Piotr Bajda. They refer to a new balance of power and impending changes to the EU’s political status quo. Could we consider the dynamics following the elections to the European Parliament, as well as the shaping phase of EU institutions, to be indicative of new times ahead in the European Union? Building on from this, Robert Rajczyk elaborates on the paradoxes of the tense situation between Hong Kong and China.

3/2019 3 Editorial

This perspective aptly puts into context the implications for the geopolitical chessboards on the global scale, which are further The examined by Maria Kądzielska. She particularly focuses on how Warsaw maneuvers of the US and China are both symptoms and causes Institute of one another.

Review On behalf of the whole editorial staff, I wish you an enjoyable read, © Copyright 2019 The Warsaw Institute Review Warsaw, Poland Izabela Wojtyczka Editor-in-Chief Editor-in-Chief Izabela Wojtyczka The Warsaw Institute Review [email protected]

Editorial Assistant Berenika Grabowska [email protected] Translations Aleksandra Tomaszewska Paulina Piłat Aleksandra Iskra Editing Alexander Wielgos Łukasz Biernacki Cover and Layout Katarzyna Dinwebel Jacek Kotela DTP and Printing www.sindruk.pl

Public purpose co-financed by the Co-financed by the Minister of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Culture and National Heritage of Poland in the competition “Cooperation from the Promotion of Culture in the Field of Public Diplomacy 2019”. Fund.

Publisher The Warsaw Institute Review Sp. z o.o. Świętokrzyska 18/410, Ministry 00-052 Warsaw, Poland of Foreign Aff airs Republic of Poland www.warsawinstitute.review [email protected] Partners: Partner of Visegrad Report: The opinions given and the positions held in the materials published in the Warsaw Institute Review solely reflect the views of the authors and cannot be equated with the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and www.warsawinstitute.org Ministry of Culture and National Heritage of the Republic of Poland. ISSN 2543-9839

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4 The Warsaw Institute Review Contents

history32 geopolitics51 Visegrad78 Report Mariusz Klarecki: Marta Kędzielska: Piotr Bajda: Warsaw Jewish collections American-Chinese relations The European Union will be and their destruction in the trade war context better off without Frans during the German Timmermans occupation

Interview European union prof. Andrzej Przyłębski Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse 80 years later - the state of Polish- 2019 European Election and its German relations in context of World 68 Outcomes 6 War II History Visegrad Report Krzysztof Rak Piotr Bajda Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining The European Union will be better off 11 the European status quo 78 without Frans Timmermans

Interview Visegrad Report

Daniel Pogorzelski Alexander Wielgos 27 Tell us who you are 85 V4 in Changeful Espionage History Mariusz Klarecki Visegrad Report Warsaw Jewish collections and their Martin Svárovský destruction during the German US military presence in Poland 32 occupation from the regional perspective and Western Report 95 potential Czech contribution Mateusz Kubiak Visegrad Report What is the future of the Eastern

45 Partnership? Dániel Fónyi The Position of the V4 in Terms of geopolitics Security Challenges Threatening the Marta Kędzielska 107 European Unions American-Chinese relations in the 51 trade war context Visegrad Report Geopolitics Wojciech Jakóbik Robert Rajczyk Poland First – Poland’s prescription 59 The Paradoxes of Autonomy 114 for hard times

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80 years later – the state of Polish-German relations in context of the Second World War Interview: Izabela Wojtyczka Interview with the Ambassador of the Republic of Poland in Berlin, Prof. Andrzej Przyłębski

The brutal German invasion of In the media, the Internet, in public Poland on September 1, 1939, discourse, the wrong type of language ignited the Second World is used, it is based on lies. Using the War. Is there an awareness term „Polish death camps”, or “Polish in German society regarding concentration camps”, instead of German what had happened 80 years extermination camps and German ago on the territories of concentration camps… is the most Poland? infamous example. True, the events were Awareness regarding the Second World occurring on the territory of Poland, War in the German society is limited. but they were conducted absolutely and I have to admit that the historical entirely out of German initiative, Poles knowledge is either seriously lacking or it were the victims, and Germans the is distorted. A question arises, whether it executioners. is not a meticulously planned operation, aimed to deliberately distort history? Nevertheless I am certain that this distortion is not a happenstance. It is I’m referring, first and foremost, to the result of a deliberate policy, however, altering the language about the truth. the first element of the acceptance

6 The Warsaw Institute Review 80 years later – the state of Polish-German relations in context of the Second World War

of this distortion is silence, a passive the exhibition with the story of the more acquiescence. Similar treatment can recent democratic developments in be noticed with the artificially induced Germany. They exposed the flourishing inclination to use the word “Nazi” instead commerce, tourism and culture. All of “German”. In public narration, the this was done in order to mask the truth word ‘Nazi’ has become deeply ingrained regarding the tragic history of atrocious as a reference to people who murdered and cruel times of war, in which the during the occupation. Today the word Germans played the role of the torturers ‘Nazi’ is not associated directly with and perpetrators. Germans. This is an effort to recreate a more soothing tone, which overshadows the truth. What strategy should the Polish state undertake Similar examples can be found in the towards this? books about the history of diplomacy. Of course Poland ought to raise the issue German diplomats, for instance, of the awareness of the responsibility for attempted to influence, inter alia, the the losses incurred in the Second World form of the Holocaust Museum in War. First and foremost, we must have a Washington. This was done in order for clear policy regarding raising historical the history of the Second World War not awareness of the events of World War to dominate the image of Germany in the II. We need to speak about what was minds of the recipient – the Americans. happening on Polish territories after 1939. Officials, diplomats, and politicians Our fundamental advantage over our consciously attempted to soften the image adversaries is that we need not be afraid of Germany in the Second World War of the truth. Polish territories were scenes in the eyes of American public. In order of unprecedented carnage. This included to achieve their aims they supplemented a special targeting of the intellectual elite,

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Regrettably, it is my belief that the current negative attitude towards Poland in Such fascist movements Germany is partly to be blamed on the foreign correspondents in Poland, in are present in German particular, German correspondents in society because they Warsaw. An aversion towards Poles is being have a sense of pride and constructed in German society. Claims that democracy and the rule of law are superiority. Historically, all but gone in Poland, and people are harassed in the streets are made quite this is due to their bluntly. To a large extent the “credit” for desire to rule over their this situation goes to the German media, which are hammering this image into the neighbors. minds of ordinary citizens. Personally, I try to fight with the false narrative, by establishing death camps and an utter supporting more authentic and objective obliteration of cities and monuments. media, which write about actual events. Of course, these are niche journals, The authentic witnesses of those times although one should begin with such should be heard. We need to conduct small steps. This is an undertaking, which studies on how Jews were betrayed and may well take a few decades. murdered, how many Poles were killed, in what conditions they were dying, and what losses Poland as a whole had Currently in Germany, Nazi suffered. We need to start talking about movements are strongly German extermination camps and revived. How is the German explaining what the reality these vicious government reacting? times was like. Fascist parties continue to exist on the German political scene, which is a big problem for the Germans. Although, let’s A gloomy situation is ask first how the European institutions unfolding. Indeed, it was are reacting? And we can answer quite on Polish territory that bluntly that because of the European people were murdered, and clout of Germany, European institutions the national wealth was do not react at all. Such is the reality. plundered on a massive scale. What tangible efforts could However, we also need to note that the be undertaken to construct German government is taking some steps the narration truthful of out of its own accord. The question arises those times? as to how effective those solutions are? Firstly, we have at our disposal the diplomatic machine – consulates and Fascist tendencies in German society embassies. Although to effectively are largely a result of an excessive and bring back the truth, aside from these unhealthy sense of pride and superiority. institutions, we ought to activate other Historically, this was reflected by the channels. We should also take care of desire to rule over neighbors, perhaps the image of our country in the media. at times, the whole world. When

8 The Warsaw Institute Review 80 years later – the state of Polish-German relations in context of the Second World War internal problems arise in this society, radical movements are often reborn. When everything goes well, people Pressure should be put associated with fascist circles do not elicit much attention. A good example on the government to is the refugee crisis, and I mean not just the actual refugees, mainly from Syria competently distinguish and Afghanistan, but also one hundred thousand economic migrants from the economic immigrants Middle East and North Africa, who suddenly began to change the everyday from real refugees. life of the Germans. Sadly, many citizens currently feel very insecure given that people from radically different cultures and reparations for individual people – and with completely different habits citizens. Former President of the Republic abruptly enter their lives. of Poland, the late Prof. Lech Kaczyński considered mainly the latter form, that is, In this case, pressure should be put on reparations for the property which was the government to stop uncontrolled stolen from Polish and Jewish citizens in migration, and, to clearly distinguish Poland. These are items and belongings economic immigrants from real refugees. forcibly seized by the Germans, such The well-being of citizens needs to be as furniture, instruments, artwork, a priority. However, in the absence of valuables, paintings, and so on, and so adequate government action, we have forth. A German historian writes that seen growing tensions. Migrant centers every German family was in possession are set on fire, people are attacked, radical of plundered goods sent by soldiers who militias are created. It is my contention fought in the east. that the current German policies in this respect are largely to blame. The idea of reparations seems to be for Germany a real opening of a Pandora’s box – the Germans avoid this topic and In 2004, all political parties warn not to talk about it, but at the same in the Sejm of the Republic of time maintain a kind approach towards Poland unanimously adopted a Poles so as not to expose themselves resolution on Poland’s rights to possible accusations of indifference to German war reparations on the matter. Currently, there is little and on unlawful claims awareness in German society of what against Poland and Polish happened during the Second World War, citizens raised in Germany. which is why people do not understand How do Germans perceive the Polish point of view. In the political the topic of war reparations environment there is a great fear of even today? raising the topic. They warn against it, War reparations are one of the most they suggest moving away from these pertinent problems affecting Polish- issues in order not to provoke negative German relations. It is a topic that always emotions. Therefore, it should be clearly evokes tensions in mutual relations. stated that there is no understanding on Of course, there are two forms of the issue of war claims between Poland reparations – namely, reparations for and Germany. However, I can see that the state provided by another country, the gradual improvement of the dialogue,

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steadily raising this topic in closed among Germans, but also foreign meetings, does give results, and a space tourists. Berlin is, of course, a city often for conversation is opening up gradually. visited by foreigners.

I have heard some negative comments A group of German activists, regarding the concept of the monument. headed by architect Florian I have heard that monuments are no Mausbach, former Bundestag longer built today, that there are other, president Wolfgang Thiers, more modern ways to express memories. and a historian Dieter Bingen, Nobody, however, says exactly what are seeking political consent those are. There are also voices claiming to build a monument in Berlin that there are more nationalities, which to commemorate the Polish had fallen victims to the Third Reich – victims of German occupation. the Ukrainians, Belarusians and more, What is your opinion on this therefore a monument should be made subject? for everyone from Central and Eastern Such a monument in the center of Europe. Of course they suffered too, but Berlin would make passers-by aware this argument serves mainly to detract of what the Third Reich did to Poland. us from the matter at hand. And as such, Unlike in many other occupied zones of course, it is unacceptable from my in Europe, the Nazi regime took it upon perspective – one should stand up against itself to completely obliterate a whole such intentional blurring of reality and country and a whole nation starting historical truth, which I consistently try with the extermination of its elites and to do at the Polish Embassy in Berlin, ending with the enslavement of the reminding about the real events of ordinary people. Such a monument the Second World War. Thousands of would of course be a symbol of the Belarusians and Ukrainians were citizens commemoration of all victims of World of the pre-war Poland, so the monument War II, it would also serve to disseminate would be addressed also to them, knowledge on this subject, not only commemorating their suffering as well.

10 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo Krzysztof Rak, PhD

any prominent and such claims was a British historian Hugh influential historians Seton-Watson, who claimed that one of claimed that Polish foreign the cornerstones of Polish foreign policy policy in the interwar was “territorial greed”1. According to the Mperiod was revisionist or had a destructive researcher, the Non-Aggression Pact of effect on the Versailles order. Its alleged January 26 was “the beginning of German- culmination was the German-Polish Polish active cooperation in implementing Non-Aggression Pact of January 26, 1934. aggression in Eastern Europe.” Seton- Based on this, a conclusion was drawn Watson considers Poland of the 1930s that Poland became co-responsible for as a “tool of German imperialism.” The the outbreak of World War II because it Poles allegedly counted on the Germans signed this pact with Germany. Such views to destroy the Soviets, and, in exchange are present not only in today’s academic world but also in historical and political 1 H. Seton-Watson, Eastern Europe between the journalism. One of the first propagators of Wars, Cambridge 1946, p. 189.

3/2019 11 History © NAC Józef Piłsudski, Marshall of Poland. Photograph taken between 1921 and 1926.

for such cooperation, they were to receive Duroselle claimed, on the other hand, that a “large part of Russia” as a reward2. Piłsudski and Beck “pursued an eighteenth- German historians Klaus Hildebrand and century brand of foreign policy full of Andreas Hillgruber categorized Poland as secrecy and cynicism,” and that after 1933, a revisionist country, generally pointing they cheered Hitler on the destruction of to Warsaw’s policy towards Lithuania, the Versailles order.4 Russian researchers Czechoslovakia, and Soviet Russia3. Anatoly Torkunov and Mikhail Narinsky The French historian Jean-Baptiste are of a similar opinion. In their textbook, the History of International Relations, 2 Ibid., p. 388. they claimed that the Polish-German 3 See K. Hildebrand, Das vergangene Reich. Deutsche Non-Aggression Pact of January 26, 1934, Auβenpolitik von Bismarck bis Hitler, Stuttgart 1996, pp. 586-587 and A. Hillgruber, Niemcy i Polska w polityce międzynarodowej 1933-1939, in Czubiński 4 See J.B. Duroselle, La décadence 1932-1939. Antoni, Kulak Zbigniew [ed.], Stosunki polsko- Politique étrangère de la France, Paris 1985; niemieckie 1933-1945. XVIII Konferencja Wspólnej I am using an English translation: J.B. Duroselle, Komisji Podręcznikowej PRL-RFN Historyków, France, and the Nazi Threat. The Collapse of French 28.05-02.06.1985, Nowogard. Poznań 1988, pp. 61-62) Diplomacy 1932-1939, New York 2004, pp. 65-66.

12 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo strengthened Germany while undermining 5 the Versailles order. Poland was a medium- It is essential to confront these views and compare them with the opinions and sized country, but severe real politics of the principal architect of social and economic Polish foreign policy of that period – Józef Piłsudski. crises plagued it. As a Maintaining the status quo result, it has not been able The most important program proposal defining the main principles of the foreign to change its international and security policy of the Second Republic of Poland was the memorial of the Chief of environment in line with General Staff Władysław Sikorski, published its own interests. in January 1922. The document was entitled “Foreign Policy from the Point of View of described it in an interview for “Kurier State Security” and was written by the head Poranny” on February 19, 1926. of national intelligence, Lt. Col. Ignacy Discussing the issue of the organization of Matuszewski, one of Piłsudski’s closest the Polish army, he pointed to the external collaborators at that time – so it was most conditions which Poland had to face: probably consistent with the Marshal’s views. According to Henryk Bułhak, the “By a strange coincidence, despite the most fundamental theses of this document obvious nonsense, Poland is continuously constituted “a dogma of political thinking being accused in other countries of some of the leading factors of the Second Republic war intentions and plans. Even in various of Poland throughout the entire period disarmament projects, Poland is put in of its existence”6. The central “dogma” of the foreground, although it is least armed this memorial proclaimed that Poland and the newest, and therefore also has the was interested “first of all in maintaining feeblest military organization. I do not its status quo for as long as possible”7. This want to get into the motives and reasons could not be achieved either through a for these accusations at the international simultaneous agreement with Poland’s level. I want to say that there is a clear neighbors (and above all with Germany and and unambiguous desire in this to have the USSR) or through an alliance with one a country in the middle of Europe, at the of these neighbors against the other. The expense of which all European scores only way out was to establish an alliance could be settled. […] with France and its allied countries. It is evident then that we are not the only Piłsudski perfectly understood the ones who can believe that the existence difficulty of Poland’s situation. He and presence of Poland as we have today are not yet certain.8 5 See. А. Торкунов, М. Наринский [eds.], История международных отношений. В 3 томах., vol. II, Межвоенный период и Вторая мировая война, Piłsudski had no illusions about assessing Москва 2012, p. 125. Poland’s potential. He certainly did 6 Henryk Bułhak, Polska-Francja z dziejów sojuszu not see his country as a superpower – 1922-1939. Cz. I (1922-1932), Warszawa 1993, p. 19. 7 Dokumenty z dziejów polskiej polityki zagranicznej 1918-1939, vol. I 1918-1932, Jędruszczak Tadeusz, 8 J. Piłsudski, Pisma zbiorowe, vol. 8, Warsaw 1991, Nowak-Kiełbikowa Maria (ed.), Warsaw 1989, p. 183. pp. 290, 292-294.

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signing them, Germany and the Western powers agreed to mutually recognize In April 1926, Germany the inviolability of the western German border – translating de facto into the and the USSR inviolability of the territorial order in concluded the Berlin Western Europe. This agreement did not concern the eastern borders of the Reich. Treaty confirming the In addition, from 1924, France began to express a wish to renegotiate the Polish- cooperation between French military agreement of February Berlin and Moscow 1921, which constituted the basis for the security of the Republic of Poland in the initiated in Rapallo event of a threat both from Germany and the USSR. Policies of the powers in (April 1922), which the mid-1920s constituted, therefore, was clearly anti-Polish. an unambiguous prelude to territorial revision in Central and Eastern Europe. unlike some of his successors. From this standpoint, he concluded that the In the notes made a year before his existence and presence of Poland were not death, Minister Beck estimated that entirely certain. Piłsudski’s conviction that the Locarno treaties created “two the state he was in charge of was weak did categories – political and legal – of not change, even in the following years. territorial importance in Europe,” and He expressed it bluntly in 1930 in one of thus, “Germany was solemnly invited the interviews conducted by Władysław to invade the East.” Asked by him about Baranowski: „...we are too weak to force his attitude towards Locarno, Piłsudski something, to impose something on supposedly said: “every decent Pole spits others, we are too week even in our when they hear these words.” affairs9. In April 1926, Germany and the USSR The basic idea of the Polish foreign policy of concluded the Berlin Treaty confirming the interwar period was the conviction that the cooperation between Berlin and Poland did not have a superpower status. Moscow initiated in Rapallo (April 1922), It was a medium-sized country, but severe which was clearly anti-Polish. Poland social and economic crises plagued it. As found itself in a challenging position a result, it has not been able to change its between two revisionist powers growing in international environment in line with its power, alongside the decreasing interest in own interests. As a consequence, it had to maintaining the territorial order in Europe focus on defending the status quo. of the Western powers.10

Locarno: world powers After the coup d’état in May 1926, undermine the Versailles’ Piłsudski returned to power and order nominated August Zalewski as Polish The first major challenge for Poland Foreign Minister. In November 1926, in maintaining the status quo was the he took part in a meeting of the Locarno treaties (December 1925). By administration of the Polish Ministry of

9 W. Baranowski, Rozmowy z Piłsudskim 1916-1931, 10 See T. Komarnicki, Józef Piłsudski i polska racja Warsaw 1938, p. 223. stanu, London, 1967, p. 19.

14 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo

Europe in 1925: Locarno Conference

F

N 

S E 

L  S  U  L D  I  G  F  S G  B  N  P  G  B L. C  

A  H  R  F  S 

Y   B  I

A  S  T  G 

A  T M

L   T  C   G     B   G      L   T 

Foreign Affairs, and, in a short speech, It should be noted that these canons presented the main points of Polish correspond precisely to the dogmas foreign policy: contained in Sikorski’s memorial of January 1922, which proves the continuity “There are two canons of Polish of the post-May Polish foreign policy. foreign policy, and they are inviolable. Firstly, Poland shall be utterly neutral Piłsudski presented his understanding of towards Germany and Russia, so that the international constellation in more both countries can be absolutely sure detail during the first meeting of the State that it will never unite with one of them Defense Committee on November 26, against the other. Secondly, it is necessary 1926. The Committee operated under the to maintain alliances with France and leadership of the Polish President and Romania as a guarantee of peace.11 was composed of the most important government representatives. During 11 A. Zaleski, Wspomnienia, Warsaw, 2017, p. 201. its meeting, Piłsudski gave a detailed

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danger – every surprise can happen – and Germany was becoming it must be taken seriously. “Anxious people in Russia will be looking more and more hostile for us because this country can take its revenge on us – although today’s to revisionist attitudes. authoritative considerations assure us that It did not seek to warm they do not want that revenge. However, internal party friction and a crisis of faith up relations with in Bolshevism can easily lead to a desire to get out of this situation by declaring war Poland, and the Soviet on us.”

Union, cooperating At the moment, the Bolsheviks are with Germany and working on the internal decomposition of our country, and this is their continuous France, did not see any work”.13 sense in striving for As it can be seen in what Piłsudski said, after the May coup, he did not see a rapprochement with its direct war threat from both his great western neighbor, which neighbors. The Germans were incapable of waging war, and the Soviets were only it treated as the main conducting internal diversions against Poland. This feeling of lack of direct enemy. threat was probably the reason why the Marshal tried to bring about a certain account of the security and foreign policy “equalization” (as it was commonly said of Poland. It is noteworthy to see how the at the time), of relations with Berlin and Marshal described relations with Germany Moscow. This can be confirmed by his and the USSR. He was not afraid of the personal conversations with USSR envoy threat from the West, because he did not Pyotr Voykov (July 1926), German envoy see “the possibility that Germans of this Ulrich Rauscher (November 1926), and generation could attack us or anyone. finally, German Foreign Minister Gustav The Germans are not able to make any Stresemann in Geneva (December 1927). military actions at the moment, and they These discussions, however, did not bring are getting weaker every year because they the expected results. The international are technically and morally demobilizing environment was not conducive to themselves.”12 The Marshal had no doubt these efforts: France after Locarno was that the main threat to Poland’s security looking for an agreement with Germany was the Soviet Union: at the expense of Poland, Germany was becoming more and more hostile to “There is a group of people in Russia revisionist attitudes. It did not seek to who cannot live peacefully. These people, warm up relations with Poland, and the who form the upper strata of the state Soviet Union, cooperating with Germany hierarchy, can move and lead Russia and France, did not see any sense in wherever they want. This element is a great striving for rapprochement with its

12 Ibid., p. 82. 13 Ibid., p. 83.

16 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo western neighbor, which it treated as the concessions regarding national minorities, main enemy. Polish foreign policy at the for which there was no consent, because end of the 1920s did not try to implement “soon we could completely reverse our any strategic initiatives. This was not only attitude and start to “suck up to the due to the internal political crisis related minorities.” In general, he negatively to the growing authoritarian tendencies assessed the policy of the Ministry of in Piłsudski’s rule but also to economic Foreign Affairs, accusing it of “going into problems caused, among other things, by a completely wrong direction, as it negates the outbreak of the world crisis. the east, tending to be a brown nose of the west”16. Piłsudski’s balancing policy Piłsudski began to think about activating Sharp criticism of Polish foreign policy Polish foreign policy probably not until may come as a surprise as there was no the end of 1930. This was caused by doubt for the participants that foreign the gradual internal stabilization of his policy was exclusively the domain of regime in Poland, as evidenced by the the Marshal. Therefore, it had to refer November elections to the Sejm and to him mainly because, at that time, Senate concluded with the success of Piłsudski had to tolerate Zaleski’s at Nonpartisan Bloc for Cooperation with least. In other words, the Marshal had the Government (BBWR). Under these to accept that at the end of the 1920s, circumstances, a “conference” took place Polish foreign policy was submissive to on November 18, 1930, in which, among the western powers (mainly France) and others, participated President Ignacy neglected (this is probably how the word Mościcki, Marshal Piłsudski, and Józef “negligée” should be understood) what Beck. During the meeting, the Marshal was happening on Poland’s eastern border. presented his political plan, initially noting The Marshal’s tolerance for such a state that “we have five years of peaceful life of affairs was undoubtedly conscious and and we need to be able to make use of probably related to the internal situation this time”14. He then briefly diagnosed in the country. Piłsudski set himself the the previous governments of his own overriding goal of stabilizing his power political camp. He considered that their after the May coup. He probably had disadvantage was the fact that “we did not neither time nor resources to increase his move freely enough and were afraid to activity on the international stage. settle financial matters as well as foreign policy matters.” He also noted that when It was no accident that the activation of he is no longer there, “Poland will have to the Polish foreign policy coincided with yield to foreigners in matters that do not the reorientation of the USSR’s policy require any concessions at all, because [...] towards Poland. In August 1931, Stalin in many matters where there is pressure ordered the Political Bureau and the from foreigners, one can simply not People’s Commissioner for Foreign Affairs yield”15. On this occasion, he criticized to finalize negotiations with Poland on Zaleski, who had a habit of using threats the conclusion of a non-aggression pact.17 that he will exacerbate the international This pact was on the agenda of bilateral situation in order to bargain more budget relations as early as 1925, when on the money for his department. The Marshal noted that Zaleski would then like to make 16 Ibid., p. 525. 17 See. Сталин и Каганович. Переписка. 1931— 1936 гг., Хлевнюк О.В., Дэвис Р.У., Кошелева Л.П., 14 K. Świtalski, wyd. cyt., Warsaw, 1992, p. 524. Рис Э.А., Роговая Л.А. (сост.), Moscow 2001, doc. 15 Ibid., pp. 524-525. no. 35, p. 71.

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the conventional structure of international life, which had been dragging on for The development of almost ten years, will be shaken. Forms, to which the world has almost become Polish-Soviet cooperation accustomed to, are crumbling. We will was supposed to be an need to rethink our thoughts and rethink our verifications of states as if they were argument for Germany defining their right to speak in a broader or lesser sense. This phenomenon will be for the normalization of accompanied by many long complications, and for us, for Poland, it may result in relations with Poland, taking up a fight against everyone, or at least improving our recent post-war while for France, history, which by its very nature left behind streaks of weakness, inaccuracies, an obstacle to the and shortcomings. […] transformation of the The second thing — in the same European status quo. conversation, when he left, the Commander said: “But remember, above eve of Locarno, the Head of the People’s all, that you must not make considerations Commissariat for Foreign Affairs, Georgy and plans beyond the strength of the Chicherin, visited Warsaw. For six years, instrument that is to perform them, however, the parties could not agree because everything is done by people18.” on this issue, and it was only Stalin’s decision that caused the parties to initial Stalin’s decision allowed Piłsudski to the text of the pact in January 1932 and start balancing between the continental sign it in July. It was a turning point for powers. Until now, Poland has been Piłsudski’s foreign policy. Paradoxically, condemned to relations with France, and it was Stalin who invited Piłsudski to play the lack of maneuver made it its satellite. and thus contributed to his debut on the The finalization of the talks on the non- international chessboard. aggression pact with the USSR gave Poland the possibility of real balancing. This was The rapprochement with the Soviet necessary because, in the early 1930s, the Union, which began at the beginning situation for Poland became dramatic. of 1932, allowed Piłsudski to start a France sought a strategic agreement with tremendous diplomatic game. Piłsudski Germany at the expense of its ally and, exchanged Zaleski for Beck at the end at the same time, the satellite – Poland. of 1932. Beck reported twice on the On January 8 1933, a few days before contents of the instruction he had received Hitler took office as Chancellor, German from the Marshal. In his speech to the Ambassador to Paris Roland Köhelm Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials on stated in a letter to Director Köpke that November 3, 1937, on the occasion of the “every conversation with politicians 5th anniversary of his assuming office, (with sporadic exceptions) with whom he he recalled that on November 2, 1932, had met in the French capital since the Piłsudski had given him two instructions: beginning of his activity, very quickly and

“First,” the Marshal said to me: “You must 18 Józef Beck, Przemówienia, deklaracje, wywiady remember that the times are coming when 1931-1937, Warsaw 1938, p. 327.

18 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo directly or indirectly touched upon the 19 issue of the eastern German border” . The French interlocutors of the ambassador It was no accident that the blamed allies for the creation of the „corridor.” For that, they accused above activation of the Polish all Lloyd George. In addition, more or less openly, they stated that „the division of foreign policy coincided Germany is illogical and poses a threat to peace in Europe”20. On February 22, with the reorientation of 1933, the French Ambassador to Warsaw, Jules Laroche, in an interview with a the USSR's policy towards German ambassador in Warsaw, von Moltke, once again raised the issue of the Poland. „corridor.” He expressed his satisfaction that, as a participant in the negotiations the beginning of 1933 proved to be in Versailles, he had nothing to do with an extremely favorable circumstance delimiting the Polish-German border, for Piłsudski’s policy. Hitler had been because already then he predicted that looking for contact with Piłsudski since this would result in permanent hostility at least the end of 1930. Through his between the two countries. The French unofficial emissaries, he tried to signal ambassador also said that: „In the old days, to him the possibility of a strategic the disconnection of different areas of the agreement. He wanted to enter into a state was not unusual, but such a state is military alliance with Poland in order to actually incompatible with the modern conquer the USSR, the effect of which was concept of state territory. The corridor in to gain new living space for the German the long term is unmaintainable, which is nation.22 Although Piłsudski did not evident to anyone who has a map in their respond positively to these attempts, he hands. A close-up with Germany would be had remembered them and made use of in Poland’s interest, [...], but it is impossible them in his political game in 1933. In without the liquidation of the corridor. „21 March 1933, Piłsudski decided to also sound Stalin and Hitler out in terms of In 1932-1933 France strived for reaching rapprochement. He did not have to wait an agreement with Germany, for which long for the effects of his game. On May it wanted to pay by revising the Polish- 2, 1933, Hitler received Alfred Wysocki, German border. However, the weakness of Ambassador of Poland to Germany, the German armed forces prevented Paris and declared that in his relations with from implementing these plans. Poland, he would conduct a policy fully compliant with the existing treaties23. The development of Polish-Soviet Piłsudski was simultaneously sounding cooperation was supposed to be out Joseph Stalin. At the beginning of an argument for Germany for the 22 The thesis widespread in historiography, normalization of relations with according to which Hitler formulated his policy of Poland, while for France, an obstacle rapprochement only at the turn of April and May 1933 under the influence of, among others, the to the transformation of the European threat of preventive war on the part of Poland and status quo. Hitler’s rise to power at isolation on the international arena, is undefendable in the light of my earlier research in the book Polska – niespełniony sojusznik Hitlera. See. K. Rak, Polska 19 ADAP, doc. No. 265, p. 565. – niespełniony sojusznik Hitlera, [Poland –- Hitler’s 20 Ibid. unfulfilled ally], Warsaw 2019. 21 ADAP, C, I/1, doc. No. 34, p. 72. 23 See PDD, 1933, doc. 127, pp. 282-283.

3/2019 19 History

May, he sent to Moscow as his emissary their bilateral relations28. In December Bogusław Miedziński, editor-in-chief 1933, Hermann Rauschning came to of “Gazeta Polska,” who had previously Warsaw with a message from Hitler29. held, among others, the positions of head During the almost one and a half-hour- of Polish intelligence and minister in the long conversation, Piłsudski, declaring Polish government. Miedziński, through his willingness to have closer ties with Karl Radek, head of the International the Germans, stipulated that he would Information Bureau at the Politburo not agree to participate in a possible of the Communist Party of the Soviet military expedition to the USSR.30 In Union (Bolsheviks) and editor of Izvestia, December, the Polish-German talks on a daily newspaper in Russia, offered the joint declaration of non-aggression Stalin, on behalf of Piłsudski, “a proposal entered a decisive phase, and on January for serious cooperation in the field of 26, 1934, it was signed by the MP Lipski international politics”24. Karol Radek and Minister Neurath. Warsaw informed revisited Warsaw on behalf of Stalin in Moscow about this phase of negotiations, July 1933 and presented to the Polish but it did not inform Paris. Nevertheless, side a proposal for an anti-German Stalin began to slow down the Polish- military alliance. Piłsudski, contrary to Soviet rapprochement from spring 1934, the expectations of his co-workers, did although the Soviets were aware that not give a negative answer. He ordered the declaration was not directed against to inform the Stalin’s emissary that the the USSR.31 At the beginning of 1935, Soviet suggestions would be taken into Hitler, through his envoy Hermann consideration by the Polish side, but at Göring, urged Polish politicians and the moment, they are premature.25 At military to join a joint crusade against the same time, Piłsudski continued his the USSR. Piłsudski definitely rejected diplomatic offensive in Germany. At the the possibility of Poland’s participation end of September 1933, Minister Beck in this project.32 In July 1935, less than made it clear to the Foreign Minister of two months after Piłsudski’s death, the Reich Konstatin von Neurath that the Minister Beck confirmed this position in Polish government wanted to “gradually a conversation with Hitler in Berlin.33 regulate most of the open issues through direct talks”26. When Germany In the years 1932-1933, Poland withdrew from the League of Nations strengthened its international position, in October 1933, Piłsudski ordered the balancing in the triangle Paris-Berlin- new Polish Ambassador in Berlin, Józef Moscow. It is worth noting that its position Lipski, to meet with Hitler and demand compensation. Hitler received Lipski 28 See PDD, 1933, doc. No. 328, pp. 732-734, and on November 15, 1933, and declared ADAP, C, I/1, p. 126, footnote 2. 29 ADAP, C, Bd. II/1, doc. No. 11, pp. 13-14. his willingness to „exclude war from 30 I present the course of Piłsudski’s conversation Polish-German relations” in the form with Rauschning on the basis of a note prepared of a treaty27. Following this discussion, based on an oral account of Rauschning, written by both sides issued a communiqué stating Gerhard Köpke, Head of Division II of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on December 14, 1933, that they ‘renounce the use of force’ in in Berlin. See PAAA, Geheimakten 1920-1936, R 31076-1 or also PAAA, Büro Reichsminister, 24 Letter from Jan Berson to Bogusław Miedziński, Akten betreffend: Polen, Bd. 10, R 28323k. Moscow, June 1, 1933. (AAN, MSZ, p. 6748A). 31 See Документы внешней политики СССР. Том 25 See Bogusław Miedziński, Pakty wilanowskie, 17. 1 января — 31 декабря 1934 г, Moscow 1971, Kultura 1963, no. 7-8, pp. 113-133. doc. no. 53, p. 139. 26 ADAP, C, I/2, doc. 449, p. 828. 32 See PDD, 1935, doc. no. 48, p. 113. 27 PDD, 1933, doc. No, 320, p. 714. 33 See ibid., doc. no. 218, pp. 499-502.

20 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo has not improved as a result of the increase in its superpower potential (increase in population, economy, and army), but as a In the years 1932-1933, result of a successful diplomatic maneuver. Poland, as a result of the change of policy Poland strengthened its by Stalin and then Hitler34, and as a result of Piłsudski’s use of this situation, broke international position, out of its existing dependence on Paris.

However, this balancing policy was balancing in the triangle entirely defensive, as it was a response to the Franco-German agreements of Paris-Berlin-Moscow. 1932-1933 aimed at territorial revision at the expense of Poland. Thus, the Polish- attended by President Mościcki, Marshal German declaration of non-aggression Piłsudski, former Prime Ministers Bartel, was for Poland a successful attempt to Prystor, Jędrzejewicz, Sławek, Świtalski, maintain the Versailles order in Central and Minister Beck. The Marshal explained Europe. It was only in 1938 that Germany at the very beginning that he was inspired and the Western powers succeeded by the example of England, where “in in destroying it when they decided to moments of a nuisance to the state,” partition Czechoslovakia. the king convenes a meeting with the participation of former prime ministers. The Marshal takes stock of his He admitted that he held off on convening foreign policy the conference because “he did not want With regard to Piłsudski’s undoubted to hold it at a time when certain foreign diplomatic success in 1932-1934, it is affairs were not yet mature, they were in the impossible not to ask a few questions. middle of settling with the entire danger How did he intend to continue the of risk.” He then continued with historical rapprochement with Stalin and the deliberations. He recalled the times of agreement with Hitler? Did he consider Catherine the Great and Frederick the Polish independence to be permanent? How Great when Russia and Prussia made a deal, did he see the future of European politics? and Poland was “torn to pieces.” He noticed that this “danger always exists for Poland.” Piłsudski was aware that his life was After World War I, however, it was smaller, coming to an end. He often mentioned this because both powers were weaker due to during meetings with his closest colleagues. the fact that “Germany was conquered He was also getting physically weaker and by Entente and Russia was conquered by weaker, which was also noticed by foreign Piłsudski.” However, in 1922, Berlin and guests, whom he received in the last years Moscow made a deal in Rapallo that was of his life. That is why he was interested not only against Poland but “rather against not only in the future but also in the past, the whole world.” The position of Poland at in summarizing his achievements on the that time was challenging: international stage. A good example was the Belvedere Conference on March 7, 1934, “Poland was the focus of trouble and eternal fear that it was the source of 34 While reporting on the course of the conference disagreement. The alliance with France at the Chief of State’s Office on January 31, 1934, did not give it enough strength. Poland Świtalski noted the following remark by Piłsudski: “If it weren't for Hitler, many things wouldn't have had to sacrifice a lot. This threat to Poland worked out.” (K. Świtalski, ed. cit., p. 654). was exploited by everyone... On the Polish

3/2019 21 History © NAC Chancellor of the Third Reich Adolf Hitler accompanied by officials at a parade. On the side, divisions of the on the German side, the Marshal came army are visible, and in the distance, across a “hostile attitude, which, in the Berlin Victory Column, 1939 detailed and minor matters, was even harassing.” However, he was able to take side, there was only one way to do this: to advantage of the moment when Germany suck up to everyone… and to be shat on withdrew from the League of Nations while doing that.”35 and made Hitler choose – either he would guarantee the security of Poland, or “[...] This unfavorable situation changed the Commander would have to use in his when Moscow entered the policy of military work a defensive system clearly rapprochement with Poland. However, turned against the Germans”. Hitler unexpectedly eagerly picked up on this 35 K. Świtalski, ed. cit., p. 659. idea, and as a result, The German-Polish

22 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo

Non-Aggression Pact was signed. Piłsudski explained this in the following way: Piłsudski believed that the “In this context, Hitler acted bravely agreement with Moscow against the Prussians when beginning to declare the recognition of Poland as and Berlin caused “huge a state officially. The Commander gives less importance to the signed documents transformations” on the than to the fact that the psychology of the German nation about Poland changes international arena, and because of Hitler’s position. Therefore, he “won a situation for even if the Prussians came to power, which would be the worst for us, this psychological Poland which [it] never change in the German nation would be had. an obstacle to their conversion to the old ” anti-Polish policy. The Commander then last four more years because of the mental expressed his appreciation for the Germans changes taking place in the German that they know how to proceed reasonably, nation, but whether they last for more – the step by step.36 Commander does not guarantee.

Piłsudski believed that the agreement If the Commander is not there, it will be with Moscow and Berlin caused “huge challenging to maintain this arrangement transformations” on the international of things, because the Commander has the arena, and he “won a situation for Poland gift of inventiveness to postpone things or which [it] never had.” The Marshal boasted put them differently, if necessary. “That that he had succeeded in doing so without is the clever mind he has got,” said the making additional commitments to Berlin Commander jokingly.”37 and Moscow, which was particularly difficult given the current hostility between In the end, Piłsudski said that in recent these two. Moreover, Poland did not have to years, he had worked hard to guarantee commit to supporting one side against the the security of Poland through diplomatic other. He recommended maintaining the channels. He respected three fundamental previous alliances and noted that it would principles that could be called his now be easier, because, having signed both diplomatic will: non-aggression agreements, Poland would not have to pay for their preservation. This “1. Keeping to the rule that all comes out remark, of course, referred to France, which only in “Selbstbeschränkung.” You have was not literally mentioned by the Marshal. to limit your goals, and [that] the worst is Piłsudski was no longer so optimistic about the ambaschränktesten ist bałwanisches the future: Denken [the publishers of the Świtalski diary translated it as “the obtuse way of “However, the Commander does not believe thinking is the most limited one”]. and warns not to believe that the settlement of peaceful relations between Poland and 2) Never lower your head, that is to say, that both neighbors would last forever, and the it is necessary to respect your dignity, which Commander calculates that good relations has always produced excellent results for between Poland and Germany may still the Commander.

36 Ibid., p. 660. 37 Ibid., pp. 660-661.

3/2019 23 History © NAC Józef Piłsudski, Marshall of Poland – a profile portrait photograph, 1933

24 The Warsaw Institute Review Józef Piłsudski’s policy of maintaining the European status quo

3) Poland's mission is in the East, that is here Poland can reach for the opportunity to become an influential factor in the East. How to treat accusations Do not interfere or try to influence relations between western countries. In order to of destroying the achieve this influence in the East, it is worth it to sacrifice much in terms of Poland's Versailles order in this 38 relations with Western countries. context? My shortest At the end of the conference, the Marshal noted that the stabilization of Poland’s answer is this: it is the internal situation is due to the fact that external, foreign forces cannot, through result of a narrowing of their influence on the internal factors of Poland, influence the direction of Poland’s the research perspective foreign policy. of the researchers In his diplomatic will, Piłsudski did not give a detailed strategy to his successors. formulating this type of Except for the remark that “Poland’s accusations. mission is in the East,” which meant that the Eastern direction of Polish foreign policy was more important to him than strategy and believed in its effectiveness, he the Western one. He probably wanted would have passed it on to his successors. to say that the real potential of Poland His message, however, was of a different does not allow it to shape the balance of type – it pointed to the ability to stall and power in Western Europe but is sufficient to act unconventionally and surprisingly. to influence the order in Central and Piłsudski’s “cleverness” lies in the ability to Eastern Europe39. The Marshal focused on see and take advantage of an opportunity, emphasizing his political methodology. and thus a kind of political opportunism, This is because he pointed to the “gift of which in its source, undervalued meaning, the inventiveness of postponing things translates into the ability to take advantage or putting them differently” and “self- of favorable sets of events. It is, therefore, limitation.” This is not the case here, a kind of political realism or a political because he understood that sophisticated attitude characterized by respect for reality strategies, doctrines, or programs could and the awareness that a politician should, not be effectively implemented in foreign above all, respect it, and not try to change it, policy. This is because international reality because it simply cannot be done. In short, is exceptionally complicated and is full of an effective policy must be characterized by uncertainties. If Piłsudski had a long-term humility in the face of reality.

38 Ibid., p. 661. Conclusions 39 A similar idea was expressed by Piłsudski on April 29, 1931, during a meeting in the Belvedere, attended How to treat accusations of destroying by President Mościcki, Sławek, Prystor, Świtalski, and the Versailles order in this context? My Beck: “The Commander constantly believes that our focus in the context of foreign policy is in the East – shortest answer is this: it is the result of a we can be strong there and the Commander always narrowing of the research perspective of considers it senseless for Poland to get into Western the researchers formulating this type of foreign relations too eagerly, because there is nothing else for us other than nose-browning the West. accusations. These scholars simply did not (K. Świtalski, ed. cit., p. 608). see or ignored certain facts and conditions.

3/2019 25 History

First, the French questioned the guarantees in the event of a conflict with the USSR, First, the French and then also in the event of a conflict with Germany. In the early 1930s, they made the questioned the guarantees subject of the Polish-German border part of the agenda for German-French relations. in the event of a conflict In the first months of 1933, it was French diplomats who persuaded Berlin to take with the USSR, and then action against Poland. also in the event of a To sum up, probably, the aim of the conflict with Germany. thesis about revisionism of Polish foreign policy is to hide the fact that constituted a First of all, that Piłsudski was aware of the fundamental element of the policy of the weakness of Poland. He indeed did not most important powers of those times, perceive it as a superpower, as some of his and that Central Europe was to become its successors did, and therefore was realistic victim. For those who claim that Poland about the fact that Poland was not able to was co-responsible for the outbreak of change the international order. World War II, let us once again recall the actual history. In 1933 Hitler began to Secondly, Piłsudski’s German policy was make strenuous preparations for the war closely related to his Soviet policy, and his against the USSR. His goal was to create a aim was to balance between Moscow and coalition in which Poland, among others, Berlin. Most researchers are not aware of would play a major role. The latter, not how far the Polish-Soviet rapprochement agreeing to participate in the anti-Soviet went in 1933 (in July in Warsaw, Beck spoke alliance, thwarted Hitler’s intentions. with Stalin’s envoy Karol Radek about the It sought instead to maintain the status cooperation of Poland and the USSR in quo on the continent and, therefore, defending the “corridor”)40. consistently refused to ally with Germany or the Soviets. The leader of the Third Thirdly, Poland was perceived as an Reich had to change his plans, decided to aggressive state that could resort to war attack Poland, and formed a short-lived in its foreign policy, the most famous alliance with his main enemy, the Soviet example of which was the alleged threat Union. The main reason for the outbreak of a “preventive war” against Germany in of World War II was, therefore, Germany’s 1933. From today’s perspective, everything desire to rule over Central and Eastern indicates that it was a bluff from Piłsudski Europe. However, there would be no because there is no evidence that Poland success for Hitler in the 1930s without wanted to attack Germany at that time. the consistent policy of concessions from Despite this, German historians are still France and Britain. It is remarkably promoting the thesis of preventive war. ironic that 80 years after the outbreak of war, it is still necessary to prove that the Fourthly, it should also be pointed out that superpowers, above all Germany, and then the military Polish-French alliance – of the Soviet Union, Italy, France, and the fundamental importance for Poland’s United Kingdom, are to blame for it. security – has been weakening since 1924.

40 See B. Musiał, J. Szumski (ed.), Genesis of the Hitler-Stalin Pact. Facts and propaganda, Warsaw, Krzysztof Rak 2012, p. 118. September 2019

26 The Warsaw Institute Review Tell us who you are Daniel Pogorzelski Renowned Polish-American author and poet John Guzlowski shares with us his struggles and ultimate reconciliation with his Polish identity in this interview with Daniel Pogorzelski, a writer and editor at ForgottenChicago.com.

Tell us who you are We came to the US in 1951 and verything I can ever say about settled in Chicago who I am always has to go back I grew up there, went to school there, and to my parents. They were both finally left Chicago to go to Graduate School Polish Catholic farm kids when at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Ethe Germans invaded Poland. My dad lived where I received a Doctorate in American in a small village north of Poznań, and he Literature. Moreover, I taught at Eastern was captured by the Germans in a roundup Illinois University from 1980 to 2015. in 1940, and my mom – who lived west of Beginning even before that, however, since Lviv – was captured in 1942 after seeing the the late 1970s, I have been writing about women in her family raped and murdered my parents and their experiences as slave by the German soldiers and Ukrainian laborers and DPs. My most recent book militiamen. They were both taken to about them is titled ‘Echoes of Tattered Germany as slave laborers and were there at Tongues’. It won both the Eric Hoffer/ the time of liberation. For the next 6 years Montaigne Award and the Ben Franklin they were Displaced Persons, or DPs, living Award in 2017. Furthermore, I recently have in a refugee camp. That’s where my sister also started writing a column for ‘Dziennik and I were born. Związkowy’, the oldest Polish daily

3/2019 27 History © From private collections of photographs by John Guzlowski My family came to America in 1951 after 6 years in a DP camp in Germany. We settled in Chicago. This photo was taken there in 1959. My parents, sister and I are at a wedding reception.

newspaper in America, and finally, I am Estimates vary, but most historians now also currently writing a series of mystery agree that there were about 12 million slave novels set in the Polish neighborhoods in laborers in Germany at the end of the war. Chicago, where many Polish immigrants I think that about 1.5 million of them were and DPs settled. The series is called ‘The Poles. Hank and Marvin Mysteries’. At the end of the war, some of them How does World War II and its returned to their home countries, but aftermath fit into your work? some did not. My parents were afraid to My parents used to say that the war had go back because of the Communists who no beginning and no end; that it was with had taken over the country. Why were them every day. I feel this way too. Almost they afraid? When my dad tried to go everything I have written as an adult in back, he was shot at by the Reds. As my some way is concerned with the war. When uncle was finally returning back to Poland I was primarily a university professor, I on a UN sponsored train after 3 years in wrote scholarly work about writers who a concentration camp in Germany, the wrote about what Poland was like before Russians arrested him and sent him to and during and after the war. When Siberia where he died. I started writing poetry and fiction, it centered thematically almost exclusively on DPs who did not or could not return to the war and the way it affected my parents their own countries had to wait for some and other people, both Polish and non- other country to say, “You can come here.” Polish. However, most countries didn’t want to take DPs. The US finally agreed to take If it weren’t for the war and how it affected 275,000. My family was one of the families people like my parents, I don’t think I that was allowed in. To come to the US, would be a writer. we had to find someone to sponsor our passage over, and then we had to work Who were the “Displaced for a year for that person to pay off our Persons” you so often write passage. An Italian-American farmer about? outside of Buffalo, New York, paid for our The DPs? They were the people who passage. We all worked for him for one originally were taken to Germany by the year. My parents worked for him, and Germans to work as slave laborers there. so did my sister and I. She was 5 years

28 The Warsaw Institute Review Tell us who you are old, I was 3. My mother tells me that I units. It wasn’t a great place, but it was their begged her to go back to the DP camps home and they owned it. in Germany because the life in America was too hard. My mother replied, “This is How does Poland and America, and here’s where we stay.” ‘Polishness’ fit into your writing? One of the other things that made being a For a long time, I didn’t want to have DP in America arduous was that we were anything to do with Poland and Polishness. treated like people who Americans didn’t To me, Poland was solely about the war and want to see in their country. We were the suffering my parents endured in the told that the letters DP stood for “dirty war. I didn’t want to have anything to do Polack,” “dumb Polack,” and “drunk with that. I wanted to be an American kid Polack.” When I was a kid growing up focused on American stuff: music, movies, in America, people would frequently tell books. “dumb Polack” jokes. You’d hear them on the street and on TV and the radio. It wasn’t until I was in my early 30s and The jokes were told to make us feel like we completely divorced from my Polishness were stupid, subhuman. They reminded that I started to realize that I could not my father of the way he was treated by the escape it, and in fact, I came to realize that Germans in the slave labor camps. my parents’ Polishness was something to cherish and write about. America has never been a country that welcomes immigrants. How do Americans without any knowledge of Poland and You devote a significant part Polish culture approach your of your work to describing the work? neighborhoods in which you They haven’t a clue. I do about a dozen grew up. Give our readers a presentations every year, all over the sense of what this community country, and the reaction is always the was like same. People don’t know a thing about what After our first year in America, my parents happened in Poland during the war and decided to move to Chicago. They were after the war. A lot of people assume I’m told that it had a large Polish population Jewish because I’m writing and speaking and that there were plenty of good paying about the way Germans killed and abused factory jobs there. millions. When I tell people my parents were Roman Catholics and that millions of The people who told us that were right on Poles suffered and died in the war, they are both counts. We moved into an area called surprised, shocked. I’ve even had people the Polish Triangle in Chicago. There were come up to me after my presentation to ask Polish schools, stores, churches, and people. me if I was in fact telling the truth about Everywhere you went in that area, there Poland in the war! were signs saying, “We Speak Polish.” My parents loved this. In many ways, it was I feel that part of my responsibility as a like being back home in Poland. writer is to tell people about what happened to Poland. In fact, one time when I was And there were jobs; plenty of jobs – good scheduled to do a poetry reading, I called paying jobs. Within 3 years of coming to my mom up and told her I was going to America, my parents were able to afford to do a reading, and I wanted her to tell me buy an apartment building consisting of 5 what she wanted me to tell the people in

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I hate to have to say this, but what’s especially ironic is that for a long time I didn’t want anything to do with his poetry or his other writings. Miłosz represented for me something I wanted to get away from, Poland and my own Polishness. Growing up in Chicago in the 1950s and 1960s, I felt that my Polishness was in some ways a curse. I was frequently called a dumb Polack and had to listen to innumerable Polack jokes that were meant to make me feel stupid, inferior, subhuman almost. I responded to this by trying to get as far away from my Polishness as I could. In my early 20s, I left Chicago, went to grad school, worked on a PhD in American Literature.

And then a funny thing happened.

I got homesick for Poland and my Polishness. I developed this need, a hunger © From private collections of photographs by John Guzlowski to know about Poland. I had gotten so far This photo was taken at an amusement park in Chicago. My sister Donna and I are sitting on away from it that it was becoming unreal to a crescent moon. My mom is standing behind, me. I lived among people who for the most protecting us from everything. part didn’t know where it was, or what it was, or what it had suffered in the war. the audience. She was very forthright. I remember one day introducing myself to a She said, “Tell them we weren’t the only new class and having a student ask me if my Poles who suffered in the war.” She knew name was Italian or Spanish. When I said that people didn’t know about what had it was Polish, he seemed confused as if I had happened in Poland, and she felt it was my said I was a parrot or a prairie dog. duty to tell them. I think a lot of this hunger was also fueled Nobel Laureate Czesław Miłosz, by who my parents were. If my parents had in a review of the bilingual been Illinois farm people raising soybeans edition of your collection and corn, or if they had been Italian gelato of Poems, Language of sellers, I don’t think I would be writing Mules, wrote that your work about them. I would be like so many “astonished” him and revealed other poets in America: writing about the an “enormous ability for weather or what it’s like being driving a big grasping reality.” Did you ever car west or east along the I-80. Instead, my meet Milosz? parents were Polish people who had been struck dumb and quivering by history, by I never met Czesław Miłosz. He wrote the the Second World War, by their lives in the review late in his life, after he returned to labor and DP camps. Poland. I did write to him to thank him for his kind review, and he sent me a nice email And to write about their lives, I had to back. know about their lives. That’s when I started

30 The Warsaw Institute Review Tell us who you are reading Miłosz’s poetry and Reymont’s What Polish and Polish-American authors Chłopi Tetralogy and Isaac Bashevis are you friends with, and how do they help Singer’s novels and Henryk Sienkiewicz’s you become a better writer? Trilogy and Ryszard Kapusciński’s journalistic writings. After I started reading Miłosz and other great Polish writers, I began wondering if Of course, I could never know the Poland there were Polish Americans writing about my parents knew and had to leave, but their experiences, experiences similar to I could know the Poland of words and mine. literature, the Poland of sounds and images. And these writers and so many This was in the late 1970s and early 1980s, other excellent Polish writers gave that to long before the internet. Today I would just me—especially Miłosz with his rich sense Google “Polish-American writers,” and I of recent Polish history, the war, the years would immediately have a list of at least 100 under communism, his life as an émigré writers/ Back then it wasn’t so easy. It was a trying to make sense of a world that he was matter of slowly discovering these writers. not born into, a language he never imagined I would find one, and then he or she as a small boy growing up. would lead me to another. What was most interesting for me about this journey was It’s hard to talk specifically in prose of how that I discovered there were other Polish- much Miłosz has meant to me so I would American writers on the same journey. now like to share a poem I wrote about him. Who did I find? Miłosz Initially, there was Stuart Dybek, John He has stood Minczeski, Leslie Pietrzyk, Oriana Ivy, At the end of time Anthony Bukoski, Leonard Kress, Phil Boiarski, Helen Degen Cohen, Mark And heard the wind Pawlak, and Linda Nemec Foster. Moving the snow For me the most amazing thing about Hard and cold encountering these writers is that I felt cold and hard almost immediately a sense of connection with them and with their writing. One of And this is what my first writing teachers was Paul Carroll, He learned: a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. He always told his students that There are voices all writers were brothers and sisters. And In the wind this is exactly what I felt with these Polish American writers. I felt they were my There are voices family, and they encouraged my writing as In the snow I encouraged theirs - as though we were all family. They know poetry Is only a bit of wood Daniel Pogorzelski September 2019 But the shore Is a long way off

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Warsaw Jewish collections and their destruction during the German occupation Mariusz Klarecki

he consistent and systematic questionnaire of losses to the city extermination of the three- Wartime Losses Department. The and-a-half-million population remainder of owners of antiques and of Jews in Poland was a collections were murdered during the Tconscious policy of Germans. During occupation1. the German occupation, about 370,000 Varsovian Jews were killed. Losses Starting from September 1, 1939, Jewish in works of art and antiques within collectors and owners of artworks this group of the city population and material culture were suffering were certainly very high. Before the serious losses. During the bombing war, many rich Jewish families lived 1 E. Bergman, Żydzi nie tylko na Nalewkach, [in:] in Warsaw. There are no reports of W. Fałkowski, Straty Warszawy 1939-1945. Raport, witnesses or sources on which losses in the Capital City of Warsaw, Warsaw 2005, p. 197; The artwork collections could be estimated. National Library Of Poland (BN), H. Bryskier, Żydzi pod swastyką czyli getto w Warszawie wieku XX, sign. Only a few people of Jewish origin Rps. III 7938, p. 303-308; N. Davies, Powstanie`44, who survived the war submitted their Cracow 2006, p. 168-169.

32 The Warsaw Institute Review Warsaw Jewish collections and their destruction during the German occupation

© Stanisław Dąbrowiecki (PAP/CAF) Ruins of the Warsaw Ghetto. Warsaw, 1946 raids on Warsaw, the headquarters Świętokrzyska, Nowy Świat, Krakowskie of the Command of the Defense of Przedmieście and Traugutta streets2. Warsaw, located in Zamoyski Palace Intensive bombing of this part of the city at 67 Nowy Świat St., was the main resulted in major losses in works of art target. Behind the building, there was so-called “antiquarian quarter” 2 S. Bołdok, Antykwariaty artystyczne salony i domy concentrated around Mazowiecka, aukcyjne, Warsaw 2004, p. 138-139.

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furniture, and a Gdańsk-style furniture 3 The sale of the painting set , also had undergone destruction. The entire collection of the industrialist, was stopped thanks to Edward Natanson, assembled in 1850 by Ludwik Natanson, was burnt during the the joint efforts of the first bombings of the capital city4. Edward Natanson lived in a ten-room flat at 10 Ministry of Culture Królewska St. He lost 60 paintings by, amongst others, Jan Matejko, and National Heritage A. Gierymski, J. Chełmoński, Juliusz and Wojciech Kossak, J. Fałat, S. Wyspiański, (MKiDN) of Poland and J. Brandt, W. Podkowiński, J. Malczewski, J. Lampi, and M. Bacciarelli, on top of Polish diplomatic posts. great western European painters, such as J.B. Greuze, F. Boucher, G. Reni, Dutch and antiques kept in the antique shops masters and others, all of considerable belonging to people of Jewish origin as artistic value. Further damage included well. many French pieces of furniture from the 18th century, a Gdańsk-style wardrobe Nearby residential buildings were from the same period, as well as handcraft; destroyed as well. As a result of a five-floor 18 vases from the Royal manufacture of tenement bombing on Czackiego St., Flora Stanisław August Poniatowski at Belweder Neuman lost her collection. She suffered and the collection of “Saxon porcelain”, all the most serious losses in paintings. of which were in the house5. Among destroyed paintings, there were many outstanding works of the greatest 3 State Archive of the Capital City of Warsaw, Polish painters, e.g. The Angelus by A. Municipal Executive, the War Damage Department Gierymski, Hunt by J. Brandt, Cavalry (hereinafter referred to as APW ZM WSW), sign. 136, nr kw. 4054, p. 263. All losses in works of art Review on the Saxon Square by were estimated by Tadeusz Neuman at PLN 326,300. J. Rosen, as well as works of O. Boznańska 4 Ludwik Natanson (1822-1896), Polish doctor of and J. Malczewski. The collection of 50 Jewish origin, one of the most active and respected doctors in Warsaw. He especially contributed to the miniatures by S. Marszałkiewicz and Warsaw dwellers during the cholera epidemic in J.L David had profound artistic value. 1848-1852. He was also known as a doctor of families Paintings and drawings of other Polish with high material status, such as Zamoyski family, see: T. Ostrowska, Natanson Ludwik (1822-1896), and foreign artists kept in the flat were [in:] Polski Słownik Biograficzny (PSB), vol. XXII, destroyed as well. Furthermore, the Ossolineum 1977, pp. 605-607. collection of handicraft gathered by 5 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 91, nr kw. 15268, p. 74, see: F. Neuman lost during the bombing E. Chwalewik, Zbiory polskie. Archiwa, biblioteki, gabinety, galerie, muzea i inne zbiory pamiątek included antiques of unique artistic przeszłości w ojczyźnie i na obczyźnie w porządku value, such as 48 figures manufactured alfabetycznym według miejscowości ułożone, vol.2. Warsaw-Cracow 1927. vol. 2, p. 407; K. Estreicher, in Miśnia, two vases from the Belweder Straty Kultury Polskiej. Katalog strat kultury polskiej manufacture, and a 24-element cutlery, pod okupacją niemiecką 1939-1944, London 1944, tableware and crockery with the motive [in:] Straty kultury polskiej pod okupacją niemiecką 1939-1944 wraz z oryginalnymi dokumentami of birds and insects from Miśnia as well. grabieży, Cracow 2003, p. 395; A. Tyczyńska, High-quality furniture of historic value K. Znojewska, Straty wojenne. Malarstwo polskie. which had fitted out the flat, including, Obrazy olejne, pastele, akwarele utracone w latach 1939-1945 w granicach Polski po 1945, vol. I, Poznań inter alia, living room furniture set 1998, pos. 39, 89, 134, 236. The aggrieved estimated from the times of Louis XV, empire style the loss in the collection of paintings at PLN 350,000.

34 The Warsaw Institute Review Warsaw Jewish collections and their destruction during the German occupation

As a result of the bombing in September One of the paintings from the collection 1939, Jan Leopold Kronenberg Palace of Jan Leopold Kronenberg, Rest in the located near the “antiquarian quarter” Tatra Mountains Lodge by W. Gerson, at 4 Małachowski Square had completely was auctioned in the Sotheby’s auction burnt down6. It is known in detail what the house in London in January 2004. The industrialist lost in the fire of the palace sale of the painting was stopped thanks in 1939 as Jan Leopold Kronenberg added to the joint efforts of the Ministry of to a questionnaire “an attachment to the Culture and National Heritage (MKiDN) losses suffered in 1939 during the Siege of Poland and Polish diplomatic posts. of Warsaw in the flat at 4 Małachowski Later, the Kronenberg Foundation entered Square7”. In the attachment, he listed the negotiations with the owner of the following paintings: Śreniawita’s horse, painting, an individual from the Republic Białonóżka, Battle scene by Juliusz Kossak, of South Africa. The masterpiece was Night by J. Chełmoński, Winter landscape successfully regained, and, in June 2010, by J. Weyssenhoff, Foragers by the Foundation placed it in the collection J. Rosen, Circassian by J. Brandt, of the Royal Castle in Warsaw9. two family portraits presenting Mrs. Popielewska and Mr. Winiarski, a portrait Many known antique dealers, such as painted by J. Lampi. Abe Gutnajer or Jakub Klejman gathered great collections and developed famous Moreover, carpets, silver, crystals, and and respected brands in the antiquarian porcelain, as well as an interesting market. The beginning of the war and the collection of antique furniture were burnt. Nazi occupation had a dramatic impact The aggrieved enumerates the loss of two on Jewish people’s lives as well as their bedroom sets in the empire style ‘from collections. After the incursion of Hitler’s the period’, empire style dining set made army into Warsaw, the first year of the of walnut wood ‘from the period’, living occupation saw persecutions, repressions, room set in the style of Luis XVI ‘from devastation of Jewish shops, as well as the period’ and other valuable pieces of evictions and transfers to the area which furniture, including an antique rosewood would become the ghetto. Both the antique desk8 in the style of Luis XV. shop and the flat of Abe Gutnajer at 16

the collection of Kronenberg family, listing mainly 6 Kronenberg Palace was burnt inside, but the front extensive archives and paintings, such as: Łazienki elevation was maintained in a good condition until by Canalett, Aquarelle scenes of Warsaw by Z. Vogel, the end of the war – see: L. Sempoliński, Warszawa Interior of Łazienki by A. Gryglewski and “family 1945 - fotografie, Warsaw 1975, il. 156, p. 180. Photo portraits, collection of miniatures, Polish antiques” of the burnt Kronenberg palace – see: W obiektywie – E. Chwalewik, vol. 2, op. cit., p. 397-398. Karol wroga. Niemieccy fotoreporterzy w okupowanej Estreicher in a book Straty Kultury Polskiej published Warszawie, 1939-1945, Warsaw 2009, p. 120 and the during the war also enumerated Kronenberg’s aerial photo of this object, p. 128. collection damaged during the bombing and fire 7 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 119, nr kw. 22297, no in 1939 in Małachowski Square. The collection pagination. The monumental palace was erected at included paintings of foreign artists, such as: 17th- the request of Kronenberg family in 1869, designed century Dutch painter J. Jordaens, signed with A.H. by Hitzig. – see: T.S. Jaroszewski, Dzieje pałacu monogram, A girl feeding birds by A. Gierymski, Kronenberga, Warsaw 1972; J. Zieliński, Atlas dawnej Starry night by J. Chełmoński and Theatre inŁazienki architektury ulic i placów Warszawy, vol. 10, Warsaw by H. Siemiradzki - K. Estreicher, op. cit., p. 393. see: 2004, p. 61. Leopold Jan Kronenberg was born on Straty Wojenne. Malarstwo polskie, Poznań 1998, op. February 14, 1891, in Warsaw, died in Los Angeles cit., pos. 71. in 1971. Kronenberg in his questionnaire described 9 See: A. Tyczyńska, K. Znojewska, Straty wojenne. the loss of his whole family. His wife was killed by Malarstwo polskie. Obrazy olejne, pastele, akwarele a bomb on September 6, 1944, his daughter was utracone w latach 1939-1945 w granicach Polski po killed during the Warsaw Uprising, his son died as a 1945, Warsaw 2012, vol. II, poz. 372; A. Tyczyńska, partisan in November 1945. K. Znojewska, Straty Wojenne. Malarstwo polskie, 8 Edward Chwalewik in Zbiory Polskie mentions vol. I, op. cit., pos. 71.

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assistant, received a special pass to the ghetto. When the German soldiers entered Especially in the first the flat, they killed all present flat dwellers together with people performing the months of the occupation, operation. Many years after the war, in 2006, in the Christie’s auction house in people of German London, a 17th-century painting probably painted by the Dutch artist P. de Grebber origin already living in (1600-1652/4) was sold. The painting presented a profile of a reading boy. Before the city before the war the war, the painting belonged to Abe participated in the looting. Gutnajer and was taken by him to his flat in the ghetto. Włodzimierz Kalicki, the author of the article about the history of Mazowiecka St. were destroyed and burnt the painting, suggests that the break-in during the Warsaw bombing in September. and the murder of Abe Gutnajer and Neither did the second antique shop of the other people in the flat was probably Gutnajer at 11 Mazowiecka St. withstand a robbery homicide. Almost the entire the bombing. family of Gutnajer was murdered in 1943 in the Treblinka extermination camp11. Though the bombing destroyed Abe Gutnajer’s antique shop, it was Humiliation and repressions of Jews reconstructed and subsequently closed, started just after the beginning of the with the goods gathered in the shop Warsaw occupation by Germans. At returned to their owners – all before his first, they were burglarizing flats under relocation to the ghetto in October 1941. the pretext of searching for weapons or After the relocation of the Gutnajer family radio. Entire flats were being looted and to the ghetto, Edmund Mętlewicz became valuables, money, paintings, carpets, their trustee in the antique trade and the clothes and food were being taken. entrusted antiques were being sold in Especially in the first months of the befriended “Skarbiec” and “Miniatura” occupation, people of German origin antique shops. The origin of the antiques already living in the city before the war handled by Mętlewicz is not clear, but they participated in the looting. Stealing could have been sold by Jewish families of valuables was usually assisted by before their relocation to the ghetto. Wehrmacht soldiers or SS officers12. However, it is known that the money from the sale of antiques was given to 11 With relation to the mysterious death the original owners living in the ghetto10. circumstances – see: S. Bołdok, op. cit., p. 229; W. Kalicki, Świadek tylko czyta, Gazeta Wyborcza, The circumstances of Abe Gutnajer’s 21.04.2008, no. 15/774; B. Engelking, J. Leonciak, death are not obvious. He was probably Getto Warszawskie. Przewodnik po nieistniejącym murdered on July 22, 1942, in the flat at mieście, Warsaw 2001, p. 666. In March 2006, an anonymous owner brought a painting Young man 26 Chłodna St. in the ghetto. On the day reading by the Dutch painter Pieter der Grebber of the murder, Abe Gutnajer was operated (1600-1652/54), which belonged to Abe Gutmajer into the London branch of the Christie’s auction by a well-known Warsaw specialist in house. It was discovered by experts from Art. Lost pathophysiology and pathomechanics, Register, and the Polish MFA joined the negotiations. Prof. Franciszek Raszeja. That day, the The painting was sold on April 25, 2008, for 46,100 pounds. The profit was divided into two parts doctor, who operated together with his between the seller from Latvia and Abe Gutnajer’s heirs. 10 S. Bołdok, op. cit., pp. 229, 233, note 41. 12 C. Łuczak, Polityka ludnościowa i ekonomiczna

36 The Warsaw Institute Review Warsaw Jewish collections and their destruction during the German occupation

People of Jewish origin were treated Union, leaving his collection in his flat in differently – they were being openly Warsaw. Rafał Schermann, as well as his robbed without any pretext. Flats were extraordinary collection, are missing. It is being broken into both by day and by rumored15 that the collection was seized in night. Even furniture was being taken by December 1939. the plunderers13. At the end of September 1939, Aleksander Enholc was robbed A decree issued by the occupiers in by German soldiers who broke into his December forbade the Warsaw Jews flat in Słowackiego St., where the Polish from changing flats, and in April 1940 Bible from 1577, known as Leopolitska, the establishment of the ghetto started. estimated at 10,000 pre-war zloty, was All people of Jewish origin coming to among the stolen valuables. Several Warsaw were allowed to live only within English books were stolen from the a designated district. In October 1940, aggrieved’ book collection as well. The Warsaw Jews were forced to move to the owner described them as “rara avis”14. ghetto. All dwellers of the Aryan origin had to leave the area of the ghetto. The day A vast collection of Rafał Schermann was after the deadline set by the chief of the stolen to furnish the flats and offices of Warsaw district, on November 16, 1940, the German occupying Mayor of Warsaw the ghetto in Warsaw was closed. 138,000 Ludwig Leist and his subordinates. Jews were in the forced resettlement and Schermann was a world-famous moved to flats left by 113,000 Warsaw parapsychologist and graphologist of dwellers of the Aryan origin16. Living Polish origin who in 1936 returned to conditions in the ghetto were egregiously Poland from the United States. In the difficult. Huge overcrowding, of 6-7 people article in “As” magazine from 1939, there for a room in the beginning, rose to 8-10 is a photograph of Schermann surrounded people. The streets were disturbingly by his impressive collection. He allegedly congested. At the early stage, about possessed 400 paintings by, inter alia, 360,000 people were located in a Jewish Rembrandt, Velasquez, Teniers and van district of about 307 ha. This number Eyck, with authenticity certificates. In the quickly rose to 450,000 when the people picture, there is a chest of drawers with a displaced from outside Warsaw joined collection of 3,300 fancy bells. He gathered the district. The ghetto was divided into, about 350 antique clocks and watches so-called, Large and Small Ghettos. They of different kinds. Additionally, he kept were connected with a footbridge over 100 snuffboxes and ancient findings in Chłodna St. The Large Ghetto, located drawers. At first, he deposited his whole in the northern part of the territory, was collection in a flat at 16 Karmelicka St. inhabited mainly by the poor. The territory in Cracow. A year before the outbreak of WWII, he decided to move to Warsaw 15 Ilustrated Weekly Magazine „As”, 5 March 1939, to a flat at 19 Koszykowa St. In August p. 14-15; Robert J. Kudelski, Zrabowane skarby. Losy 1939, just before the outbreak of the dzieł sztuki na ziemiach polskich w czasie II wojny światowej, Cracow 2012, p. 34. war, the graphologist went to the Soviet 16 J. Adamska, J. Kaźmierska, Getto warszawskie hitlerowskich Niemiec w okupowanej Polsce, Poznań opisane przez hitlerowca. „Kronika Warszawy” 1983, 1979, p. 250. nr 1/53, p. 70 as cited in: E. Bergman, Żydzi nie tylko na Nalewkach, [in:] W. Fałkowski, op. cit., p. 197; 13 J.S. Majewski, Śródmieście i jego mieszkańcy see also: K. Dunin-Wąsowicz, Warszawa w latach w latach niemieckiej okupacji: październik 1939 1939-1945, Dzieje Warszawy, vol.5, Warsaw 1984, - 1 sierpnia 1944. Dzień powszedni, [in:] p. 282. M. Getter claims that the whole resettlement W. Fałkowski, Straty Warszawy 1939-1945. Raport, action touched about 220,000 people, see: M. Getter, The Capital City of Warsaw, Warsaw 2005, p. 71. M. Getter, Władze niemieckie okupowanej Warszawy, 14 APW, ZM WSW, sign.. 159, nr kw. 9992, p. 978. [in:] W. Fałkowski, op. cit., p. 215.

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of the Small Ghetto located to the south them to collect signatures of owners of all of Chłodna St., near Śliska and Sienna small factories, manufactures and shops Streets, was smaller and the population located in this street and to provide the density was lower. There, the flats of number of the employees. Entrepreneurs wealthier Jews were located17. and residents of houses in Elektoralna St. organized a donation and, for instance, Leaving their companies, shops and the owner of the Fraget factory joined manufactures outside the ghetto was a the action. Dwellers of Elektoralna St. great loss for the Jewish entrepreneurs. prepared a special plan of the district The issued proclamation ordered all with the proposed boundary of the ghetto entrepreneurs to gather at a given place according to the guidance of the counsel. and time. Men, escorted by the police, All efforts of the Elektoralna St. dwellers, were taken outside the ghetto and despite the apparent involvement of the were told to open their shops to make German counsel who took the money, inventories in the presence of the Chamber turned out to be fruitless. The flat of Stefan of Commerce representatives. After the Talikowski was included in the ghetto whole day of waiting for the officials, in in November 1940. Foresightedly, Stefan the evening, the police came back to take Talikowski earlier exchanged flats with over the keys and took the owners back to Dr. Mamrot – a Jewish dentist who lived the ghetto. A similar situation happened to in a tenement at 6 Chłodna St., located the property owners, who, not being able vis-à-vis the Charles Borromeo Church. to manage their business from the ghetto, Unfortunately, this tenement was included were entirely deprived of their incomes. in the ghetto a year later19. The Jewish community was buying the works of many painters and sculptors One can imagine the disorder in the city living inside the ghetto to help them. Such caused by such a huge resettlement action. a financial aid helped the Jewish artists The transport of furniture had to be to maintain dignity in the face of the organized and generously paid. increasing threat of starvation18. A housing office established by Germans gave Talikowski’s family a six-room flat at To rescue their flats and places of the corner of Sienna and Sosnowa Streets. employment, Poles were trying to negotiate Frequent relocations were not easy for the with German authorities about the change family. Furniture from the 13-room flat of the ghetto boundaries. Collector Stefan was packed into two huge vehicles with Talikowski recollects that when dwellers a capacity of a railway wagon each. The of Elektoralna Street found out that it was Hartwig transport company sent 10 men going to be included in the ghetto, they to bear and 2 men to pack the objects. asked an influential counsel from Berlin to Talikowski notes: “When they tried to exclude Elektoralna Street from the ghetto move the cupboard in the dining room, it territory. The counsel who was supposed turned out that it is as long as the whole to represent the street dwellers ordered wall, it was made of solid oak wood and richly carved, it could be divided only 17 E. Bergman, Żydzi nie tylko na Nalewkach, [in:] into two parts, up and down, 8 people W. Fałkowski, Straty Warszawy 1939-1945. Raport, The Capital City of Warsaw, Warsaw 2005, p. 197; 19 BN, S. Talikowski, op. cit., p. 397. The following BN, H. Bryskier, op.cit., p. 156- 157; K. Dunin- change of the ghetto boundaries took place on Wąsowicz, op. cit., p. 286. September 26, 1941, and the relocation of several 18 H. Szerszewska, Krzyż i mezuza, Warsaw 1993, dozen of the included territory dwellers ended on p. 46-47; L. Tyszka, Wspomnienia z warszawskiego November 8, 1941. - M. Getter, Władze niemieckie…, getta, Biuletyn ŻIH, Warsaw, 1974, nr 1 (89), p. 116, op. cit., p. 215-216; K. Dunin-Wąsowicz, op. cit., as cited in S, Bołdok, op. cit, p. 171. p. 282-283.

38 The Warsaw Institute Review Warsaw Jewish collections and their destruction during the German occupation lifted it and carried from the first to the ground floor”20. Many less valuable pieces of furniture were given to befriended Accumulated cultural neighbors or otherwise sold. material of many Wealthier Jewish families which could not take all their goods deposited them. generations was Pianos, furniture, carpets, paintings, disappearing in this way, crystals and other expensive goods were placed in their friends’ flats from the but on the other hand, this wealthy intelligentsia and aristocracy living on the other side of the wall. Poorer is also how a part of it had Jews were giving their goods to caretakers, co-workers and other house dwellers. survived via redistribution Sometimes, well-paid transports with Jewish goods were not arriving at their to other Polish cities. destinations. This may have been caused by pure carelessness or a coincidence leave my flat and furnishing within several which resulted in takeovers of the hours, they allowed me to take only... carrier by Germans21. This is how the underwear” – he recalled. The collection carriers were cheating their clients and of the aggrieved contained mainly appropriating the Jewish wealth. When it the elements of the mansions’ artistic happened, the aggrieved could not even furnishing. Heilpernia was then forced appeal for justice as he could not leave to live in the ghetto at 5 Orla St., “where the ghetto. There were cases when the looting continued until half of August 1942. objects which reached the receiver were They were stealing valuables, jewelry, land not willingly given back. Valuables and bonds, silver, money, bed linen, securities, works of art were being hurriedly sold at a shares, clothes, cameras, food, they left lower price. Accumulated cultural material nothing”. In the middle of August 1942, of many generations was disappearing Zygmunt Heilpernia was forced to leave in this way, but on the other hand, this his flat in Orla St., barely surviving. In is also how a part of it had survived via the following months, he was forced to redistribution to other Polish cities. change his place of living over 20 times Nevertheless, a seriously large part of “until he lost all [of his wealth], saving only valuable works of art and antiques was photographs”22. destroyed and burnt during the Warsaw Uprising or transported by the occupants Andrzej Rotwand used an interesting in the following months. idea to hide his collection. The idea to construct a locker under his house at Before the outbreak of the war, Zygmunt 8/10 Chocimska St. was given to him Heilpernia lived in a mansion on Aleja Róż by his friend, Władysław Michalski, a Avenue. He was observing the repressions collector and architect as well, who earlier of Jewish Warsaw dwellers from October made a similar locker under his own 23, 1939. On August 19, 1940, “I was house. Rotwand deposited more precious unexpectedly forced by the occupants to paintings in the National Museum, sculptures and handcraft, where in turn,

20 BN, S. Talikowski, Kronika rodziny Talikowskich – he hid under his house. His collection of Talikowiczów, BN, sign. akc. 11061, p. 397. 21 BN, H. Bryskier, op. cit., p. 156- 157. 22 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 46, nr kw. 3832, p. 395.

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The owner of the “Sirius” machine factory, Józef Jakobsfeld, was arrested for the first The locker under the time on October 17, 1939. During his imprisonment, the 60-year-old man was house was not discovered severely beaten – “when I left the prison, I had to undergo treatment and I stayed by Germans and looters in bed for 3 months”. During the sweep on August 22, 1942, he was beaten again and remained untouched. “they were beating in the head, I could not Polish paintings only consisted of over 150 speak”. The entrepreneur was hiding for paintings, including many masterpieces. six years and paying for subsequent hiding The pre-war art collection gathered mainly places. Jakobsfeld paid for the freedom of by Andrzej’s father – Stanisław Rotwand, his daughter Alicja, imprisoned in Pawiak was considered as one of the greatest private in 1942, and paid for rescuing his son and collections in Poland. The collection of daughter-in-law’s lives. Racial persecution paintings disappeared during the Warsaw was accompanied by the seizure of Uprising. The locker under the house was property. In August 1940, a factory and not discovered by Germans and looters a flat in Złota St., including movables, and remained untouched. Only rainwater were seized “even with the provision for which entered the trench caused minor Schmittburg and exported by him. He left damage. Andrzej Rotwand survived the blank walls”. In the industrialist’s flat, war hiding from persecutions. His wife, there were paintings by, amongst others, Maria Rotwand provided him with a F. Żmurko, W. Hoffman, W. Wodzinowski, proper hiding place and care. After the F. Wygrzywalski; additionally “a set of war, in the questionnaire of losses Andrzej Chinese porcelain – a present from General Rotwand included a list of 153 paintings Zajączek and different souvenirs from the and 6 sculptures “exported or destroyed by times of Stanisław August Poniatowski” as Germans”. His overall loss was estimated well as other artistic objects24. at PLN 41,200. The entire collection of paintings was probably exported by A Dr. of Psychology, Róża Baumgarten, Germans in the same transport which who before the war lived in Koszykowa carried paintings taken from the National St. on her own, was forced to move to Museum of Warsaw. After the war, some the ghetto in Ogrodowa St. same as all elements of Rotwand’s collection were Warsaw dwellers of Jewish origin. In the found among paintings belonging to the ghetto, she was forced to work arduously National Museum of Warsaw found in in Schulz’s factory on Nowolipie St. Germany. Subsequently, the paintings were During the liquidation of the ghetto in kept as a private deposit in the National 1943, together with other Jews, she was put Museum. Many of them have decorated into a train wagon transporting people to the Gallery of Polish Painting for many Auschwitz (Oświęcim) for death. years (e.g. Death of Ellenai by J. Malczewski, do kw. see: K. Estreicher, op. cit., p. 399. Alarm and Skirmish by J. Brandt). Some 24 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 75, nr kw. 1111, p. 494. paintings went to the Rotwand’s flat. A „Sirius” machine factory was located at 51 Zamojski major part of the regained collection of St. During the bombing on September 8, 1939, it burnt. In the years 1940-41, the entrepreneur paintings together with property rights to reconstructed the factory and fixed part of machines. missing works of art were sold in 1995 by a His daughter Alicja Jakobsfeld was hurt in 1939 widow Maria Rotwand23. during the bombing. Józef Jakobsfeld’s wife died, his brother Gustaw was shot and his wife Cecylia was taken to Treblinka. His father-in-law 23 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 147, nr kw. 6967, p. 896, zał. Henryk Bergson died in the ghetto.

40 The Warsaw Institute Review Warsaw Jewish collections and their destruction during the German occupation © Grzegorz Jakubowski (PAP) Wojciech Gerson's painting "Rest in a Tarzan shelter" Warsaw, 01 June 2010

She managed to escape to the Aryan sculpture „Gladiator” and a period English side “ just before the final burning of the clock.26 ghetto”. During the resettlement in 1940, she lost the entire artistic furnishing of One of the methods to preserve the goods her flat, including a collection of paintings before moving to the ghetto was to sign represented by such artists as J. Fałat, J. them over to neighbors or friends of the Stanisławski, H. Szczygliński and others25. family. Monika Żeromska describes the case of Mortkowicz couple who in 1940 Before the war, Mieczysław Michelson- signed their business over to Monika’s Walicki, a Jewish merchant, lived on mother, Anna Żeromska to save their Ujazdowskie Avenue. In 1940, the publishing house and a bookshop from Germans deprived him of two big Germans. The legal document was paintings by Józef Ryszkiewicz. One of predated by three years and according them – Death of a victualer was about 20 to it, the company’s assets were signed square meters in size and its value was over to a widow of a writer to cover the over PLN 25,000. The second painting was debts of the publisher. Before the war, 8 square meters in size and was valued by Mortkowicz’s company was publishing the author at PLN 10,000. Additionally, 11 books of Stefan Żeromski. Hence, Anna Persian carpets were taken from the flat, Żeromska deposited some books from 30 square meters each and their value was the vast collection of Mortkowicz family estimated at PLN 45,000. Another Jewish among her friends. During the occupation, merchant, Andrzej Weintal, in 1942, lost the bookshop business was profitable. It all movables taken from his flat, including employed several people and maintained paintings: Sailboat by M. G. Wywiórski, two Jewish families, Mortkowicz and Disappointed woman by W. Wodzinowski, Beylin, which were hiding near Warsaw. Ulan and a Girl by W. Kossak, bronze Part of the money was also given to “the constantly following racketeers. After taking the extorted money, they were leaving, but 25 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 142, nr kw. 5468, p. 910. Róża Baumgarten was working in Schulz factory it was obvious that they would come back from July 22 to December 3, in 12-hour mode, in a few days. So it was necessary to look for sewing uniforms for German soldiers. According to another place to hide. Monika [Żeromska] her, she was placed in barracks. Difficult working conditions caused „severe heart deficiency and hearing disorder”. 26 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 205, nr kw. 1112, p. 564.

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carpets, works of art and antiques [...] we pay the full price immediately in cash”. Moreover, Leśniewska’s This piece of information shows how Leśniewska was acquiring works of art business contributed to and antiques to her shop. The authors of the book “Getto Warszawskie” claim saving the lives of many that Leśniewska’s business was a cover for organizing escapes of Jews from the Jews. ghetto. They also mention Leśniewska’s was the one who organized new places, at associate, Weinstein, who together with first with the help of her current husband, his wife was organizing help for the Bronisław Zieliński, later thanks to her own ghetto refugees. Therefore, Leśniewska’s contacts with the AK”27. antique shop played an important role in trade contacts between the ‘Aryan’ side Sometimes, there were more mediators and the ghetto which resulted not only for fear of denouncing a Jewish business in her income but also in the financial by Germans. A. Ryszkiewicz recalls the help for people in the ghetto. Moreover, antique business of N. Sakiel located in Leśniewska’s business contributed to Lilpop’s house at 7 Mazowiecka St. Most saving the lives of many Jews. Natan likely, Zofia Leśniewska was the trustee Sakiel, thanks to receiving a title of an of Sakiel’s interests as in 1940 she opened honorary consul of one of the South an antique shop in the same building. The America states, avoided being closed shop specialized in handcraft and was in the ghetto28. named “Zofia Leśniewska and Company”. Leśniewska’s shop was definitely one of Helena Szerszewska in her reminiscences the biggest and best-equipped antique described one of the antique shops in the shops on Mazowiecka St. Many classy ghetto which was rather a little shop with Nazi soldiers, including Governor-General various items. It belonged to the pre-war Hans Frank, were supposed to be the antique seller from Świętokrzyska St. – shop’s clients. In the ghetto newspaper Kleisinger: “There was a small display “Gazeta Żydowska” (Jewish Journal) with several old plates, two silver sugar Sławomir Bołdok found an announcement bowls, a cord of amber, a Turkish shawl. with information: “Art Gallery – And an ivory miniature and a chessboard Z. Leśniewska and Co. [...] through its with figures [...] there was nothing to look representatives in the Jewish district at. But I was stopping and staring at those purchases paintings, designer furniture, unwanted things, so incompatible with the surrounding harsh reality of the ghetto”29. 27 M. Żeromska, Moja ulica Mazowiecka, Rocznik Warszawski, r. XXV, 1995, Warsaw 1996, p. 225; Persecuted Jews were being rescued by Ibidem, Wspomnień ciąg dalszy, op. cit., p. 42, 76, 94, 103. Chwalewik described the collection of Poles who risked their own lives and entire J. Mortkowicz who lived before the war at 5 Okólnik St. see: E. Chwalewik, vol. 2, op. cit., p. 406. There is 28 a preserved letter in which Marshal Józef Piłsudski A. Ryszkiewicz, Handel dziełami sztuki w thanks Jakób Mortkowicz, as in e.g. Zbiory Polskie okupowanej Warszawie 1939-1944, [in:] Kryzysy – E. Chwalewik: „Books published by You honour w sztuce, Materiały sesji Stowarzyszenia Historyków the Polish publishing art” – a photo of the document Sztuki w Lublinie, Warsaw 1988, p. 227; S. Bołdok, [in:] J. Olczak-Ronikier, op. cit., p. 195. J. Olczak- op. cit., p. 277, 327; M. Żeromska, Moja ulica Ronikier, W ogrodzie pamięci, Cracow 2001, p. 270. Mazowiecka, Rocznik Warszawski, XXV, 1995, After her return to Warsaw, the mother of J. Olczak- Warsaw 1996, p. 208. Ronikier in a letter to her family in New York wrote: 29 H. Szereszewska, Krzyż i mezuza, Warsaw 1993, „Library, the Old Town are a pile of rubbles and p. 62. The antique shop in the ghetto was located in ashes. No book was preserved...”. Ibidem, p. 298. Śliska St.; S. Bołdok, op. cit., p. 169.

42 The Warsaw Institute Review Warsaw Jewish collections and their destruction during the German occupation belongings. Hiding Jews could receive the largest financial help from the Council to Aid Jews (Żegota). they spent over PLN A terribly large part of 37 million and USD 50 thousand for this purpose in 1943-1944 alone. After the artistic objects belonging closure of the Jewish district, about 20 thousand people were hiding in Warsaw, to Jews was stolen and 4 thousand were aided by Żegota30. Ludwik destroyed by the German Munk, engineer and contractor, was hiding in a three-room flat in Berezyńska occupants. St. In 1940, as a result of a denunciatory note, the flat was taken over by Gestapo antiques were sold in the first place to buy but the persecuted Jew managed to escape. food and medicines to survive. Residents The man lost his valuables, including 22 of the ghetto who had remaining valuables paintings of J. Fałat, S. Filipkiewicz, F. in their flats were especially exposed to Ruszczyc, J. Pankiewicz, L. Gottlieb and invasion and robbery by policemen or others. Moreover, his handcraft was seized soldiers. They were taking mainly works as well: Persian carpets, old porcelain, of art, carpets, chandeliers, jewelry, glass, silver and cabinet furniture, “very valuable furniture and other goods. Zofia valuable antiques”31. Wróblewska describes another terrifying possibility of Jews in the ghetto to escape Adam and Aniela Uziembło were two their tragic fate: “Sabina started to of those Poles who helped the Jews persuade people to sell everything... What? preserve their valuables and works of art. – chandeliers, paintings, a cupboard. Then, Jewelry and money hidden in pouches buy a lot of food, eat dinner together and were given in parts to the owners when take cyanide. Nobody thought then that this necessary. “There were also works of art, was, in fact, the most dignified solution”33. Zak’s paintings, among others. These were The history of the artistic objects which damaged during the Warsaw Uprising. were being sold in exchange for food to the But there were mainly small things”. The “other side of the wall” ended a year later Uziembło couple describe also the cases together with the destruction of the rest of of takeovers of Jewish companies by Warsaw. trusted Poles. Sometimes, Jews in the ghetto were able to perfectly manage their During the pacification of the ghetto, businesses on the ‘Aryan’ side of the wall. a huge area of the city was destroyed. In their diary, Adam and Aniela Uziembło A terribly large part of artistic objects describe a Jewish family which perfectly belonging to Jews was stolen and destroyed managed to sell furniture from their old by the German occupants or brought into flat in Cracow32. the circulation of the antique market in the Aryan side. Due to the total destruction of Before the outbreak of the Ghetto the ghetto and seizure of even the smallest Uprising, impoverished Jewish families objects during transportation to death had no valuables. Works of art and camps, preservation of valuable antiques was not possible. Alongside with the 30 W. Borodziej, A. Chmielarz, A. Friszke, Jewish community, people killed included A. K. Kunert, Polska Podziemna 1939-1945, Warsaw 1991, p. 247. those connected with culture and art, 31 APW, ZM WSW, sign. 93, nr kw. 14772, p. 86. 32 BN, A. Uziembło, Kanwa i na kanwie, sign. 33 BN, Z. Wróblewska, Póki my żyjemy, sign. akc. 14619, pp. 64-65. akc. 14055, p. 3.

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and also enthusiasts, including antique Poland, an antique dealer was providing sellers and collectors. Most of them, after works of art to museums, ministries and being gathered at Umschlagplatz, were representative governmental buildings. transported to the Treblinka death camp. When the war broke out, Klejman The rest died or was murdered during the closed his antique shop. He was hiding uprising34 which broke out in the Jewish outside the Jewish district in a flat and district on April 19, 1943. conservation workshop of Henryk Kucharski at 5 Oboźna St. This place was Only a few managed to survive the war. a former workshop of a painter Wojciech Marian Fajertag-Dąbrowski, owner of Gerson. To make a living, he was selling the antique shop “Museion” at 1 Warecka paintings in art galleries “Skarbiec” and St. was one of them. Artistic objects in “Miniatura”. Stefan Talikowski recalls his antique shop were partly damaged that during the occupation, Klejman was during the bombing in September 1939. holding long social meetings which could In the same year, when Germans invaded have ended in a tragedy. Fortunately, Jakub Warsaw, the antique shop was robbed Klejman survived the war and was one by the occupants. In 1940, Fajertag- of the first to open his own antique shop Dąbrowski’s business was probably seized in 1945 in Szpitalna St. which lasted until due to the Jewish origin of the owner. 1950. He probably moved to England and The aggrieved wrote: “in 1939, brilliants then to the United States where, according and pearls worth about PLN 100,000 to Talikowski, “the most respected were stolen”. In the attachment to his specialists in art were consulting him and questionnaire, he presented an impressive wanted to hire him36”. inventory of his shop consisting of 278 paintings of remarkable Polish painters No antique shop survived the destruction as well as 67 miniatures. The list included of the ghetto. No Jewish antique losses in porcelain and furniture also. dealer, except for J. Klejman, decided The antique seller possessed a detailed to reconstruct his business in post-war inventory of lost collections as he included Poland. Antique objects shared the fate in the questionnaire a note: “Briefly of the city. Few people returned to ruined enlisted works of arts are very extensively houses and shops after the war and such described in my catalogue which I can as Klejman managed to save remnants present at any request35”. of the antique treasures from the rubble. After the war, J. Klejman’s antique shop Dr. Jakub Klejman, a graduate of the in Szpitalna St. was visited by an owner of medical department in Paris also survived the antique shop “Skarbiec”. According to the war. He devoted his whole life to her, Klejman said: “Mrs Żalińska, you sold antiques. Before the war, he opened an my paintings for a great price – And what Art Galery at 1 Mazowiecka St. in Warsaw have you done with the money? – I asked – and became one of the most appreciated I bought paintings from an old school. They antique dealers of the times: “he possessed all burnt during the Uprising”37. such a knowledge of works of art, especially paintings, that he was an indisputable Mariusz Klarecki authority” in the matter. In pre-war September 2019

34 E. Bergman, Żydzi nie tylko na Nalewkach, [in:] 36 BN, S. Talikowski, op. cit., p. 408; S. Bołdok, W. Fałkowski, op. cit., p. 197; BN, H. Bryskier, op. op. cit., pp. 169, 305. cit., p. 303-308; N. Davies, op. cit., pp. 168-169. 37 W. Czernic-Żelińska, Salon Sztuki „Skarbiec” 35 APW ZM WSW sign. 147 nr kw. 6952, p. 834, zał. w Warszawie. Kalendarz działalności w latach do kwest., pp. 835-836. 1940-1950, RMNW, X, 1966, p. 486.

44 The Warsaw Institute Review What is the future of the Eastern Partnership? Mateusz Kubiak

he 10th anniversary of the Revolution of Dignity and the overthrow Eastern Partnership (EaP) of Viktor Yanukovych, or an unexpected celebrated in 2019 is not only decision of the Armenian authorities to the time for summaries but shift from the alliance with the EU to Talso for discussions regarding the form of the Eurasian Economic Union developed further cooperation between the EU and by Russia. Nevertheless, the past decade its eastern neighbors. Even though there includes the enhancement of the is a prevailing belief that the initiative cooperation between the European Union launched by Poland and Sweden should and the EaP states and co-action in many be developed further, both among sectoral policies as well. So what has been the addressees of the EaP and the EU achieved so far, and how should further members, there are serious discrepancies needs of the EU neighbors be defined? in the visions of further integration. In And is it possible to reconcile the interests the face of no prospects of presenting of the EU states with expectations of the the Eastern Partnership members addressees of the Eastern Partnership? with a possibility to access the EU, the significance of the sectoral cooperation, Balance of the decade e.g., construction of the infrastructure ResultsR of the Eastern Partnershipought or liberalization of markets, increases to be assessed through the prism of the considerably in relevance. fundamentals for this EU policy principle of “differentiation” as what may be Dramatic plot twists marked the decade considered as the success of the EaP in of the Eastern Partnership’s history – it the case of Belarus or Azerbaijan (notably, is sufficient to recall the Ukrainian Armenia is deliberately not mentioned

3/2019 45 Western Report © Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency (PAP/Abaca) EU-Commissioner for European Neighborhood and Enlargement Negotiations, Johannes Hahn (L) speaks at the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) High-level conference in Brussels, Belgium, May 14, 2019

here), may be of much smaller, or even further than the EaP’s agenda projected: zero significance in the case of states such Kiev, Tbilisi and – to a lesser extent – as Georgia, Ukraine or Moldova. Today, Chisinau are already applying for the these differences are even bigger than a EU membership. It sufficessuffices to say decade ago when the Eastern Partnership that, for example, in July 2019, Georgian was formed. President Salome Zourabichvili proposed to open the accession negotiations with When it comes to the group of the no preconditions, and, in the past, so-called “EaP’s top states” – Georgia, Ukraine threatened with blocking a Ukraine, and Moldova – it is necessary joint declaration at the EaP summit as it to stress the exhaustion of the recent lacked the issue of prospects for the EU program of cooperation at the political membership. level. All countries aforementioned have already managed to sign European In contrast, Azerbaijan and Belarus Union Association Agreements (AA) remain much more skeptical about the and Deep and Comprehensive Free sense of the complex integration with Trade Agreements (DCFTA), as well as the European Union and participation in introduce the short-stay visa-waivers. the EU policy of the Eastern Partnership. Of course, a lot may be questioned In practice, authorities in Baku and in the matter of implementation of Minsk treat the EaP’s offer selectively particular records. The stability of and are instrumentally picking the the pro-Western course of Moldova is elements convenient for them. As a result, raising concerns as well. However, it is a the prospects of the development of fact that in the case of the said group of cooperation between Azerbaijan, Belarus the EaP members, the expectations go and the EU should be considered mainly

46 The Warsaw Institute Review What is the future of the Eastern Partnership?

e Eastern Partnership Bringing the Eastern European partner countries closer to EU

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 U U   M E

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in the context of selected sectoral policies, not as possible integration at the strictly The prospects of political level. the development of Armenia, whose case is the least obvious of all six EaP member states, is the last cooperation between addressee state of the Eastern Partnership. It is necessary to underline that yet Azerbaijan, Belarus during the previous governance (before the change of leadership in Spring 2018) and the EU should be and the presidency of Serzh Sargsyan, Yerevan was actively aiming to sign the considered mainly in Association Agreement with the EU. the context of selected Eventually, Armenia abandoned this goal in 2013 under the pressure of Russia sectoral policies. which has been gathering instruments for exerting influence on the authorities in does prevent them from the liberalisation Yerevan for years. As a result, Armenians of trade with the EU. Nevertheless,in were also forced by Moscow to enter the 2017, Armenia managed to sign a Eurasian Economic Union which, in fact, Comprehensive economic partnership

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e Eastern Partnership Goals and benets

C 

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S     P           S  E    

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agreement (CEPA, still ratified in the EU The main point, which is definitely states). Even though it does not provide for, dividing the EU states, is the further e.g. the establishment of a free-trade area, development of the Eastern Partnership’s in practice, it is in essence an equivalent of political dimension and the possible the Association Agreement prepared for eastern enlargement of the EU in the Armenia and in case of its implementation future. Naturally, the official union – it should result in a relevant integration policy of the EaP has never provided of Armenia with the EU. for the promise of membership. But the fact is that in the face of Euro- Searching for political Atlantic aspirations of Georgia, Ukraine incentives and possibly Moldova, this issue is Despite formal consensus about the inevitable and sooner or later it will necessity of the Eastern Partnership’s have to be addressed by the EU. Further existence, there is no doubt that it is seen postponement of official statements in various ways by the EU members regarding the possible enlargement of the as well. This situation is not surprising European Union will increase frustration considering the discrepancies between among part of Eastern Partnership European perceptions of, for instance, member states: a similar situation has political processes happening in the been happening for several years in the region. DifferencesD in perceiving the case of Georgia’s accession to the North international environment, including Atlantic Alliance. the role of the Russian Federation in the region of the former Soviet Union, have How can we mitigate the potential to influence the willingness of the states threat of discouragement of the Eastern to bear the cost (including political ones) Partnership members today, in the face of of involvement in the development of the prevailing lack of political willingness to Eastern Partnership. enlarge the European Union to the East?

48 The Warsaw Institute Review What is the future of the Eastern Partnership?

© John Thys/POOL (PAP/EPA) A view over the EU Eastern Partnership Summit in Brussels, Belgium, November 24, 2017

What kind of political encouragement the EU community. These ideas seem to should be sought for to keep the EaP’s be necessary, but at the same time, even in program attractive also to “ordinary just a few years, they will not be sufficient citizens” in countries such as Georgia or to fill the gap left by the lack of the Ukraine? slightest prospect of the European Union membership. One proposal has been formulated in recent months by Polish diplomacy, Prospects of the sectoral which presented the idea of extending the cooperation Association Agreements and reinforcing Another field of integrating with addressee the institutionalization of the Eastern countries of the Eastern Partnership Partnership. Polish Minister of Foreign is the sectoral cooperation. Naturally, Affairs, Jacek Czaputowicz, in particular, for the most ambitious EaP members, appealed to consider the establishment of this will not substitute for the possible a kind of Eastern Partnership’s secretariat EU membership. However, in theory, together with the introduction of the its development remains vital – it aids rotating presidency within the EaP. providing stability in the region as well as In theory, these actions should bring gives real business opportunities for EU the eastern EaP partners closer to the capital tootoo. What is more, the agenda decision-making processes in Brussels of the sectoral cooperation within the and increase their sense of belonging to Eastern Partnership has already been

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“more for more” rule, beneficiaries of possible EU funds would have to ensure The EU will be able to get the liberalization of their markets by adopting the EU regulations. Otherwise, involved more actively the transposition of the EU standards, for example in the energy industry, in the financial support can cause many problems, which is already visible in the case of Ukraine, for the infrastructural Georgia and Moldova. And every further encouragement can additionally stimulate projects aiming to these processes. integrate the states in the Of course, this vision is rather optimistic – it does not include many objective region. factors, such as influences of oligarchs or the Russian Federation on particular sectors in the EaP member states, and highly developed, and in contrast to the subjective, such as lack of willingness mentioned political cooperation, it will not of many EU member states to provide be exhausted too soon. considerable funds for the needs of their eastern neighbors. The fact is, It is impossible to focus on all possible however, that the members of the Eastern fields of the sectoral integration within Partnership are talking about such the Eastern Partnership. However, the financial support, and this fact only energy industry and transport may be should spark off a debate whether we are considered especially pertinent (which is able to address these expectations. important – also for the public opinion within the EaP states). In both cases, *** there is still great potential for market The European Union is now facing the reforms or investments in infrastructure. necessity to find a response to the open These are strategic sectors crucial for question about the future of the Eastern the development of the states, which Partnership after 2020 at the level of influence the living standard of the both political and sectoral cooperation. “ordinary citizens” alsoalso, as they are From the perspective of the Central and of major importance for the prospects of Eastern Europe countries, it is rather the trans-boundary cooperation in the obvious that the worst that can happen to region. the EaP policy at the current stage would be stagnation and preservation of the If only a willingness of the EU member current offer without any extension. This states occurs, the EU will be able to get may be a cliché, but it is worth stressing involved more actively in the financial that geopolitics abhors a vacuum, and if support for the infrastructural projects the citizens of the Eastern Partnership aiming to integrate the states in the member states are to remain enthusiastic region. Of course, such aid – e.g., for about the European idea, they will expect the construction of gas interconnectors, further cooperation and consequent electro-energetic connections, or results. trans-boundary transport corridors – would have to be encumbered with Mateusz Kubiak many conditions. According to the September 2019

50 The Warsaw Institute Review American- Chinese relations in the trade war context Marta Kędzielska What are the causes of the current tension between Washington and Beijing? Why have the American President’s advisers opted for strengthening the relations with China for years? What does the return to the tianxia concept mean?

he economic growth of the geopolitical relations between the United People’s Republic of China States and China. He asked openly is surely the most important whether the conflict between these two geopolitical event in the countries is inevitable, as according to T21st century. It is no wild speculation arguments, it even seems essential. The to argue that an increasing number American researcher formulated the of scientists, experts and publicists concept of Thucydides’ Trap through realized the presence of a dragon, which which he described the dynamics of had been previously treated as a lizard competition for power between an old by the West. The phenomenon of the ruling power and a young candidate enormous progress of China in Graham for domination. He describes it on the Allison book “Destined for War: Can example of the Peloponnesian War America and China Escape Thucydides’ and the rivalry between Athens and Trap?”, which provides an analysis of Sparta. However, such relationship

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US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Chinese President © Associated Press/East News Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019

occurs not only at the national level but follow the same reasoning. They are all also in other circles, such as families aware that the military conflict between or companies. Allison writes: “the the United States and China would defining question about global order is be definitely destructive for the whole whether China and the U.S. can escape world. Kevin Rudd, the former Prime the Thucydides’s Trap. Most contests Minister of Australia, who developed that fit this pattern have ended badly. bilateral relations of both countries Over the past five hundred years, in merits particular attention. He is one sixteen cases, a major rising power has of the Western politicians with the best threatened to displace a ruling power. understanding of the Middle Kingdom In twelve of those, the result was war1.” (Zhongguo). Moreover, his ability to speak However, Allison’s book does not aim English and Mandarin significantly helped to exacerbate the current situation but him to develop the American-Chinese to set a path helping to avoid an armed diplomacy. In his famous lecture for TED, conflict. he excellently explained the Chinese mentality: “The Chinese to this day believe Most of the experts specialized in that the United States and the West do international relations with China not accept the legitimacy of their political system because it’s so radically different 1 Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Houghton from those of us who come from liberal Mifflin Harcourt, 2017, p. 17. democracies. And believe that the United

52 The Warsaw Institute Review American-Chinese relations in the trade war context

States to this day is seeking to undermine half century; none, however, has taught me their political system. China also believes more than Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s first that it is being contained by U.S. allies premier and its guiding spirit ever since.”3 and by those with strategic partnership Yew, being a Chinese educated in the with the U.S. right around its periphery. Anglo-Saxon tradition at the University of And beyond that, the Chinese have this Cambridge had a unique understanding of feeling in their heart of hearts and it their both civilizations: Chinese and American. gut of guts that those of us in the collective This is the reason why he served as an West are just too damn arrogant”2. This adviser to all presidents of the United means that in international relations, the States, from Richard Nixon to Barack Chinese do not want to be preached and Obama, as well as many leaders of China. looked down on or educated on the rules He was also a friend of Deng Xiaoping. of liberal democracy functioning. They are characterized by the disapproval of Lee Kuan Yew assessed the American- the Western dictate, especially the USA. Chinese relations in the following This is expressed in the saying: “What is way: “This is not a cold war. The Soviet Chinese is the essence, what is Western is Union competed with the USA for global a complement”. For the last five thousand supremacy. China acts only as China, in its years, the Chinese were ruling on their own national interest. It is not interested own and they do not need an older brother in changing the world”. According to the to hold their hand. The acceptance of the Grand Master from the East, relations domestic policy of the Middle Kingdom is between the two countries will be a condition of any international relations marked by a struggle for influence but with this state. The Chinese do not want to dimmed in the case of China as it needs interfere with the domestic affairs of their the American market, technology and partners, and they expect to be treated in access to education in the USA for its own the same way. development. He also points out that there is no ideological conflict between the states As the book of Graham Allison is a as China enthusiastically embraced the starting point for further discussions free market and made use of globalization about the relations between the United as well. Mutual relations are stabilized States and China, it is necessary to pose by trade dependence and a huge need for a question, who woke up the American cooperation. We saw the evidence of this researcher from his geopolitical nap? mutual relation during the G20 summit in Allison’s consideration of China was Osaka when Donald Trump declared the induced by his interview with the first end of the trade war and the end of the ban Prime Minister and the founding father imposed on the cooperation with Huawei. of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew. This short, Larry Kudlow, an economic adviser to the but great text was published as “Lee Kuan White House, immediately dampened the Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, enthusiasm of the public opinion favoring the US, and the World”. It is available in this by commenting on Fox News that the Polish language version as well, even Huawei would not be granted an amnesty, though in Poland, Lee Kuan Yew is almost the boycott of products of the Chinese completely unknown. The introduction tycoon would not be ceased, and the to this paper written by Henry Kissinger consent to sell American products is only begins with words: “I have had the privilege of meeting many world leaders over the past 3 Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill and Ali Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World, MIT Press, 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XQ1onjXJK0 2012, p. 7.

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Amphibious assault ship USS Wasp (LHD 1) © Flickr.com/Naval Surface Warriors transits the waters of the South China Sea. Wasp, flagship of Wasp Amphibious Ready Group, is also to enhance the economic interests of operating in the Indo-Pacific region to enhance interoperability with partners and serve as a the USA. The formation, called by some lethal, ready-response force for any type of economists “Chimerica”, is the current contingency, South China Sea, March 29, 2019 result of years of enhancing the economic relations between both countries. After temporary. However, the declaration of the temporary isolation of China which the President of the USA is valid and was happened after the Tiananmen Square not a gesture of compassion for all users massacre, the Administration of Bill of Huawei devices in order not to deprive Clinton decided to separate the human them of access to Google tools. This is rights issues from trade relations. Until the effect of cold calculation of gains and the end of his presidency, the most losses of American companies for whom favored treatment in trade was applied to the loss of the Chinese clientele would Beijing. After 1992, China gained 282.6 result in an enormous fall of income. billion dollars from foreign investments. American and Chinese economies are, Then, China unprecedentedly opened after all, very tightly interconnected. to the world and entered the process of globalization. As a result, in 1978-2012, ‘Chimerica’ the average annual growth in the Middle The current situation is the aftermath of Kingdom amounted to 9.8 percent. changes in American-Chinese relations American companies took advantage of which happened in the ‘70s during the the Chinese economy’s transformation. presidency of Richard Nixon. Henry In the ‘90s, Americans relocated most Kissinger was the architect who led of their factories to China to lower the to the economic and partly political costs of production. Until now, almost all opening of the United States to China. of the biggest brands – such as Adidas, This aimed not only to win influences AT&T, Apple Computer, Avon, Coca Cola in China against the Soviet Union but Foods, FedEx, General Motors, Gentek,

54 The Warsaw Institute Review American-Chinese relations in the trade war context

Gerber Foods, Gillette Company, Johnson & Johnson, Starbucks Corporation, Whirlpool Corporation, Ralph Loren, This is how the West to name a few – are producing goods in China. The list is endless. Many created its greatest European corporations acted alike. This means that in order to achieve a lower competitor by itself. cost of production, technologies, tools and know-how were exported to China. the growth of the American GDP. Workers were trained and hired there. Indeed, when it comes to the numbers, The relocation of factories entails not everything added up. Bilateral trade only the relocation of manufacturing income in 1986 amounted to 8 billion technologies but also their development. dollars and within 30 years it rose to Workers in China developed new skills 578 billion. However, actions taken by and are still enhancing them. It is not a the United States turned out to be very secret that the Chinese use the method of short-term orientated and focused on the copying and reproducing technological interim profit. China has become a cheap solutions, products, new technologies exporter, the factory of the world and an or even programs and applications. extremely absorptive market which was Western companies have given the a wonderland for big corporations. But Chinese capabilities and knowledge nobody predicted that Chinese producers which were copied and further enhanced would use the possessed knowledge and by them. Stealing has become a method skills to develop their own companies of collecting new information and this and solutions making the West entirely is not kept in secret. In 2014, Director dependent on them. According to the of the FBI James Comey admitted: “The author of the book “The China Challenge: amount of theft that’s going on is simply Shaping the Choices of Rising Power”, staggering. There’s only two types of big American political scientist Thomas corporations in America. Those who have Christensen, “since the Chinese reform been hacked by the Chinese, or those era began in 1978, no global actor has who don’t yet know they’ve been hacked done more to assist China’s rise than the by the Chinese4”– he summed up. The United States5”. American economists results of the investigation carried out by started to understand this problem. the American CBS program also leave The assessment of Peter Navarro, one of no doubt. The Chinese technological the main advisers of President Donald espionage cost American companies Trump, expressed in his book “Death by hundreds of billions of dollars. This China. Confronting the Dragon – A Global is how the West created its greatest Call to Action” is especially crucial. competitor by itself. We can observe the influence of this publication in the subsequent stages of Only today, Americans have come to the current trade war. “Not coincidentally, realize that they were lured by the desire as China has systematically hollowed to capture the huge Chinese market. out American manufacturing base, its Every administration of the USA since economy has grown at the astonishing rate the ‘70s was convinced that the Chinese of 10% annually. In contrast, over the past economic development equaled to decade, the U.S. economy has expanded at

4 as in Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can 5 Thomas Christensen, The China Challenge. Shaping America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, the Choices of Rising Power, W.W.Norton&Co, New Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017, p. 17 York-London, 2015, Prologue.

3/2019 55 Geopolitics © Associated Press/East News G20 leaders attend session 3 at a G20 summit meeting in Osaka, June 29, 2019

a rate of only 2,4%. Note that this paltry common target which is the development 2,4% growth rate during the 2000s if fully of the state and enrichment of the 25% below American’s historical growth society. They do not think that western rate of 3,2% between 1946 and 1999. (…) political solutions are better in any way That 0,8% differences equates to a failure or more proper for China. Lee Kuan Yew to create almost million jobs a year and, understood this matter properly: “China cumulatively, over 10 million jobs over the is not going to become a liberal democracy; last decade6”. if it did, it would collapse. Of that, I am quite sure, and the Chinese intelligentsia Among the American administration, also understands that. If you believe especially experts and advisers on that there is going to be a revolution of relations with China, such as Henry some sort in China for democracy, you Kissinger, Henry Paulson, or Michael are wrong. Where are the students of Pillsbury, there was a belief that economic Tiananmen now? They are irrelevant. The liberalization and opening to global Chinese people want a revived China7”. markets would go in par with political liberalization of China. This was the The center of the world biggest mistake in the assessment of the Traditionally, there are five directions Chinese civilization – all mentioned in China: north, south, east, West, specialists admit. The support for the and... center. The center is China, which authorities ruling in the Middle Kingdom is “everything under the Heavens”. reaches 80 percent which is higher than In contemporary China, Confucian in any western country. The Chinese traditions are clearly reviving. Many trust their leaders and are driven by a 7 Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill and Ali 6 Peter Navarro, Death by China. Confronting the Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on Dragon – A Global Call to Action, Pearson Education, China, the United States, and the World, MIT Press, New Jersey, 2010, pp. 52, 53. 2012, p. 14.

56 The Warsaw Institute Review American-Chinese relations in the trade war context thinkers come back to the traditional system and concept tianxia – ancient belief implanted in the Chinese mentality The Chinese believe that that they constitute the center of the world and all foreign grounds are they have the right to barbaric and crude. China is the only and true civilization and their cultural dictate their will to their superiority is unquestionable. No other country can equal China. Chinese neighbors comes from the intellectuals, for example, philosopher Zhao Dingyang from the Chinese tianxia system. Academy of Social Sciences, are more and more frequently using this concept. For with the unpredictable policy of Kim hundreds of years, the Middle Kingdom Jong-un (China does not want the has functioned in the tianxia system. unification of Korea for many strategic This system assumed the existence of a reasons) and open disputes in the South rigid center – China, and the existence China Sea. Freedom of navigation, of other subordinate elements located especially in the most frequently used around China which used to pay the world communication routes: in the tribute for care and good relations. The South China Sea and the East China Middle Kingdom had cultural supremacy Sea, protected by the US navy, is one over neighboring countries, however, it of the main rules of the current order, was not focused on conquering them, sanctioned by the United States. but on gentle influencing through However, China is trying to force the values, morality and order. This is well US Navy’s ships out of these waters. explained by Dr Jacek Bartosiak in his According to Bartosiak, as a response to work “Pacyfik i Eurazja. O wojnie”(Pacific similar actions, Americans are trying and Euroasia. About war), stating “there to develop and implement a concept was no Westphalian system known by the of the air-naval war which aims to West since the Thirty Years’ War in the restore the American control over the 17th century providing for the sovereignty communication routes leading to the of states functioning in power relations, allies in the region and assure freedom stabilizing each other and looking for of navigation. However, Beijing is alliances to balance the system8”. China frequently mentioning the establishment lost its dominating position in the 19th of the two-hundred-miles Exclusive century, eventually after the First Opium Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South War in 1839-1842. In the whole history of China Sea. It would result from the need China, it is a very short period. to develop the maritime power of China and the necessity to make investments The Chinese believe that they have in the world to protect their economic the right to dictate their will to their and strategic interests, which in practice neighbors comes from the tianxia would prevent the US Navy from sailing system. Analyses of the current relations in the EEZ territory. The most popular between the United States and China effect of this conflict known to the public point to two hot spots. These are the is the construction of artificial islands by situation in the Korean Peninsula China on which the airport and harbor infrastructure is being developed to 8 Jacek Bartosiak, Pacyfik i Eurazja. O wojnie, increase their power projection in the Wydawnictwo Jacek Bartosiak, Warsaw, 2016, p. 308. region.

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In order to stop the expansion of China in There is no sense in guessing what may the South China Sea region, Americans happen. The situation is dynamic. The are trying to enhance the alliance with key matter is to understand the scale Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. and significance of the leap that China However, the Philippines is the only has made since the times of Mao to country that has officially signed the the governance of Xi Jinping and the alliance with the USA. It has lasted awareness of the Chinese, global political, since 1961 but was only confirmed on economic, cultural, and military impact. January 12, 2016, by the Supreme Court This is suggested by the combination of a in Manila. The pact allows the Americans 1350-million-people (that is 1.35 billion to access the infrastructure on the islands persons) population of China with a great while the USA’s strategy provides for the pace of economic development, which enhancement of allied airborne capabilities. led to the establishment of a superpower The East China Sea has also become the within less than 30 years. Everyone arena for the American-Chinese increasing who visited at least one Chinese city strategic competition where Japan as the understands it. The number of citizens American ally, is playing an important and the scale of development amazes role. “China, Japan, and the USA as well and overwhelms at the same time. The treat this water area as a place of a potential ambitious plan of Xi Jinping announced marine-air confrontation which is visible in in October 2017 during the 19th meeting maneuvers, exercises and demonstrations of of CPC provides for the formation of a power so frequent after 2012. To prove that, “moderate welfare society” until 2021 and on December 25, 2015, the cabinet in Tokyo the creation of a modern, innovative state accepted the increase in the 2016 defense until 2035. Xi Jinping’s plan is prepared budget9”. in detail and looks to the future as the Chinese, in contrast to the Europeans, The situation in the South China Sea has its create plans for generations. Until 2049, origin conveyed directly in the geostrategic China is to become a modern power with ambitions of the Middle Kingdom. Xi a strong economy as well as services, Jinping is aware that the establishment of industry and technology. Xi Jinping also a maritime Silk Road is fully dependent talked about the influence of Chinese on having control over these waters. The culture on the rest of the world. What Chinese are not aiming at an armed conflict would this influence be like? Can the as their strategy for years entailed the world operate in the bipolar American- avoidance of war. However, the control over Chinese system? It is difficult to define sea routes conditions the development of yet. But for sure, China is the new, trade which remains the highest priority ambitious power divested of the western for China. According to Allison: “As long malaise which wants to struggle for its as developments in the South China Sea are position in the world. Therefore, changes generally moving in China’s favor, it appears are inevitable and will be succeeding unlikely to use military force. But if trends in before our eyes. The new global order is the correlation of forces should shift against being established right now. it, particularly at a moment of domestic political instability, China could initiate a Marta Kędzielska limited military conflict10”. September 2019

9 Jacek Bartosiak, Pacyfik i Eurazja. O wojnie, Wydawnictwo Jacek Bartosiak, Warsaw, 2016, p. 573. 10 Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017, p. 153.

58 The Warsaw Institute Review The Paradoxes of Autonomy Robert Rajczyk, PhD

acau and Hong Kong are mandatory patriotic education in schools former European colonies and made a decision to bar non-Chinese in Southeast Asia. Both judges from any cases involving national territories have held the security issues1. Macau people take part Mstatus of the special administrative in the elections less willingly than their regions under Chinese sovereignty since Hong Kongese peers, while Portugal — 1999 and 1997, respectively. This means since it toppled the dictatorship in the that, except for their foreign and defense Carnation Revolution of 1974 — made policies, they are self-governing bodies, it clear it was doing nothing but just albeit on the blessing of Beijing. Macau, administering the Chinese territory that a former Portuguese colony, is famous came under the profound influence of for the tourism and entertainment the Communist Party of China (CPC). industry, while Hong Kong, which in the past remained under British rule, boasts June 30, 1997. At dawn, according to the reputation of one of the world’s top tradition, the British flag of Hong Kong financial centers. In Hong Kong, people is hoisted atop a pole right in front of the take to the streets to demonstrate, governor’s residence. Chris Patten, who contrary to neighboring Macau that is serves as the 28th governor of Hong Kong, not beset with a comparable problem goes around the square with the pole on at all. Some Chinese nationals from it for the last time in this role. Starting mainland China pump money into tomorrow, his duties will be assumed by the gambling industry, the sole place in China where casinos are legal. 1 Based on Portuguese law, Macau’s jurisdiction Macau’s local authorities implemented allows judges of foreign origin to be appointed.

3/2019 59 Geopolitics © Flickr.com/etan liam 130 000 people joined the parade organized by The Civil Human Rights Front to oppose the proposed extradition law amendment, which would allow China to extradite persons in Hong Kong for alleged violation of China’s laws. Hong Kong SAR, April 28, 2019

the Chief Executive, newly appointed and an exotic overseas colony, though, by Beijing, while across the Admiralty for the People’s Republic of China, it district of Hong Kong flags of the People’s has been malodor of rebellion. Over the Republic of China will flutter and a new past twenty years of Beijing’s dominance banner of an already-Chinese Hong over Hong Kong, its residents have yet Kong. Illustrated as a symbol of the local again taken to the streets to protest, each population, the banner — modeled on the time seeking to preserve the city as a Chinese one — features a Bauhinia flower stronghold of democracy. Protests that with the five red stars found on each of swept across Hong Kong in 2012, 2014, the petals. On July 1, 1997, Chris Patten, and 2019 have always been politically accompanied by Charles, Prince of Wales, motivated. The first rally sparked off and heir apparent to the British throne, against a proposed curriculum that who came to the handover ceremony on embraced political features of mainland behalf of Queen Elizabeth II, sails away China. The second of which, often called from the city on the royal yacht Britannia the Umbrella Revolution, was intended as the “Rule, Britannia!” anthem is playing to address the Hong Kong local electoral in the background — ending 156 years of system, imposed by Beijing. This year’s British rule in the territory. rally, culminating with nearly 2 million residents having flooded to the streets on In the language of its indigenous June 9 (considering that Hong Kong has population, the name “Hong Kong” a population of 7.4 million people), is the means “ fragrant harbor”. But for every climactic expression of disapproval of the subsequent empire that held the city in pro-Chinese administration’s efforts to its clutches, it had a slightly different put forward a proposed amendment on an scent. For the British, the aroma was a extradition law, seen by some as a measure hint of its colonial superpower status to crack down on uncomfortable political

60 The Warsaw Institute Review The Paradoxes of Autonomy opponents. And the number of these is still between communist China on the one growing in the Pearl River harbor. hand, and the democratic West on the other. The Umbrella Movement, named after the umbrellas that shielded demonstrators The situation started to change in the from the hot sun, had brought to local late 20th century. To mark the CPC’s power some candidates that stood up centenary in 2021, China, which has to defend universal suffrage, a solution begun to gather stream while assuming agreed on with the United Kingdom2. The worldwide importance, has considered Chief Executive of Hong Kong — being it a matter of honor to unify all Chinese equivalent to the post of a Prime Minister lands seized by foreign forces back in elsewhere — takes their oath to the the 19th century. Back then, a “one Chinese authorities and is chosen by Hong country, two systems” formula emerged, Kong residents out of other candidates originally developed, however, with approved by the Communist Party of Taiwan in mind. The years 1984 and China3. 1987 saw, for their turn, declarations signed with Great Britain and Portugal Earlier, the governor arrived from London to hand over these two colonies back to abroad a British Airways jet — as the China. This took place on July 1, 1997, nominee of the British monarch — while and December 20, 1999. Under Hong any plausible discussions over their Kong’s and Macau’s basic laws, or their candidacy took place inside the UK’s constitutional documents, adopted by Foreign Office, far from the colony’s the National People’s Congress (NPC), inhabitants. Notwithstanding this, no both colonies were provided guarantees one seemed to complain about a lack for maintaining their autonomy for a half of consultation as the United Kingdom of century, except for their foreign and stimulated an unfettered development — defense policies. The first fifteen years based on the freedom of expression and did not indicate any changes were to take remaining democratic values — of the place sometime soon. Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong island, and the New Territories. Owing to such After Xi Jinping rose to power in Beijing, efforts, ‘the fragrant harbor’ has become the situation saw a tilt towards his longed- one of the Four Asian Tigers; countries for policy of “a great renaissance of the that boast the world’s largest number of Chinese nation”, intended to happen buildings higher than 150 meters and a through, inter alia, establishing China’s GDP per capita five times higher than Social Credit System; a mechanism that Poland’s. It served the role of a bridge aimed to foster social ties once completely swept away by the cultural revolution. 2 On the tide of rallies, there emerged political But what stands out as its key factor is an parties seeking to advance autonomous – or even ambition to shape Chinese prosperity, with secessionist – slogans. However, a few Hong Kong’s the strategy of both increasing China’s Legislative Council deputies lost their seats under a decision of a local court in the aftermath of their domestic consumption and exporting refusal to take an oath of allegiance to China. surpluses. The latter could materialize 3 Macau’s local government structure is headed by owing to the Belt and Road initiative. This the Chief Executive, who is appointed by China’s central government after getting a green light from political and economic project designed a committee that consists of members endorsed by to strengthen and expand China’s zone of social organizations. The Legislative Assembly is a economic influence worldwide has also body comprising both directly elected legislators while other members are elected in indirect suffrage particular focus on Central and Eastern and appointed by the head of administration. Europe and the Balkans (as part of the

3/2019 61 Geopolitics © Flickr.com/L.Rico© Umbrella Revolution, Hong Kong October 2, 2014

16+1 format), as well as, first and foremost, corruption has even become a theme of Africa. a popular Chinese TV drama series ‘In the Name of the People’, to a great extent Xi Jingping, for whom it is evidently bankrolled by the Supreme People’s politically inconvenient to pursue Deng Procuratorate (SPP). Xiaoping’s idea of collective leadership, remains increasingly committed to It would be yet a mistake to believe that solidifying his political position. What rose the process of consolidating power in as the culmination of Xi’s deviation from the hands of one man is coming to an the principle, formulated in an effort to end. After all, the Communist Party prevent the emergence of a Mao Zedong- of China has a total of more than 90 like dictatorship, was a 2018 constitutional million members. With such a sizeable amendment removing term limits for membership, the Communist Party of the chairman of the Communist Party China is not an undivided monolith, of China, or the de facto state’s president. and tensions running high between its During a six-year rule that preceded the numerous factions do resemble Western- constitutional amendment, Xi purged all like inter-party rivalries. There are also opposition within the party under the worried voices of dismay, mainly from guise of an anti-corruption campaign, a the former party and state leaders, fight whose origins date back to the time stressing that Xi had made a considerable of the Chinese Empire and the founding mistake, both political and economic, of China’s first republic4. Struggle against upon declaring a trade war with the United States. Xi Jinping’s actions can 4 The period between 1911 and 1949. be also interpreted as sailing away from

62 The Warsaw Institute Review The Paradoxes of Autonomy

Deng Xiaoping’s “28-Character Strategy”. apartment and making it a far more This boils down to China’s pursuit to distant dream than that at the time under consolidate its power as a state as well the British rule. Furthermore, mainland as strengthening the projection of its Chinese women on enormous scales power on the global scale, revealing decide to go to Hong Kong to give birth to neither efforts nor the state’s intentions their new-born infants, which is not only in this regard. Conspicuously enough, due to the infant mortality rate being six attesting to such is also the willingness to times lower than in China, but – first and dispute assertively the Spratly Islands, an foremost – it also paves the baby’s way archipelago in the South China Sea where for being granted resident status with the China operates according to fait accompli right of free 12-year education or to hold tactics. a Hong Kongese passport whose power — counted as an index according to the Hong Kong’s “troubles” do not serve Xi number of countries it can access without Jinping’s image that has been shaped over an visa in advance — is much greater the past recent years, depicting him as a than China’s 6. capable politician and a global statesman. How the issue should be tackled is in effect Hong Kong residents differ from their a ‘litmus test’ for Xi Jinping’s leadership mainland peers. While people living in while serving as an occasion to secure the harbor on the Pearl River generally support from “hard-headed” communists speak Cantonese, those inhabiting in the twenty five-member Central other parts of China communicate in Politburo of the Communist Party of Mandarin. A mere 3 percent of Hong China, of whom seven people hold posts in Kong residents feel Chinese, and a social the Politburo Standing Committee, or an study shows two-thirds of the local executive committee. population identifying themselves with regional identity. Mandatory patriotic A certain paradox is that Hong Kong’s education was implemented to the autonomy has become “a pain in the school curriculum in a bid to reverse this neck”, but mostly for some of China’s tendency. And then appeared a teenage senior policymakers. Mainland Chinese, activist Joshua Wong who, through for their part, seem satisfied with all Internet communication channels, called the benefits offered by the special on his peers to boycott the class. The autonomous region. As many as 28 form in which local rallies are being million tourists, or 75 percent of all held keeps evolving, from the initial visitors, leave a lot of money in the city boycott of a controversial school class, in a move that yet gives a headache to through blockading of the city’s Central its residents. Tourists’ conduct stands business district and its commercial in stark contrast to local traditions, as arteries, to rallies whose atmosphere is shows the example of their behavior sometimes far from peaceful. Protestors in public places5. Moreover, mainland vandalized the Chinese government’s Chinese individuals and entities invest liaison office and earlier had stormed in the real estate market, a move that has the Legislative Council, causing damage contributed significantly to skyrocketing in its headquarters. Police’s pursuits for the already-high prices, shattering most quelling the riots, alongside sentencing of the inhabitants’ dreams of an own leaders of the 2014 Umbrella Movement,

5 It is about breaching the ban on eating in the Hong Kong subway or satisfying the youngest children’s 6 https://www.passportindex.org/ physiological needs on the sidewalks. comparebyPassport.php

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© Flickr.com/Studio Incendo Umbrella Revolution, Hong Kong October 2, 2014

including Wong, to prison terms of up to in an attempt to arouse the interest of a few months, drifted demonstrators away foreigners in the fate of the city under from their former strategy, pushing for a the Chinese rule, at times in a very new one instead7. much insistent manner. Hong Kong demonstrators block subway trains, Firstly, it is worth noting that there is no persistently pressing the emergency strict leadership, while demonstrators button on board, causing delays. Two who decide to speak with the media months of protests going on in Hong cover their faces with sunglasses Kong worsened the daily life of the city’s and surgical masks. In shops where residents dramatically. In an interview demonstrators buy helmets, protective for a Hong Kong-based daily South clothing, and protective foil against China Morning Post, Singaporean real pepper gas used by the police, they pay estate agents said that the number of in cash. Also, they managed to develop Hong Kong residents people interested their own gesture-based system of in purchasing real estate in the Lion visual communication, used when in City had risen by one-third over the past the crowd. The protests further moved eight weeks. to Hong Kong’s international airport But the authorities do not give the game 7 Three leaders, among whom Wong, 20, were away and have no intention to neglect sentenced to from 8 to 10 months in prison, yet the problem, possibly inspiring local not for taking part in the protests but de facto for thugs, labeled “titushky”, to come to hooliganism, which made them first-ever political prisoners in China’s Hong Kong. the fore. These are members of local

64 The Warsaw Institute Review The Paradoxes of Autonomy gangs who stormed both commuters two territories received a link to the and young people dressed in black, or continent through a 45 kilometer-long the color adopted by demonstrators, road bridge, a solution that shortened at a subway station. Interestingly, travel time between Hong Kong and they all wear white. China’s “screw- Macau, which were previously mostly tightening” efforts in Hong Kong has connected by ferry. Dubbed until de facto been going on since 2010. recently a bridge between the worldwide City-based editors are grappling economy and a developing China, with mounting pressure from local Hong Kong is losing its current position administration while their journalists gradually. Though the city remains sometimes fall victim to physical a world’s leading financial center, it assaults by “unknown perpetrators”. accounts for a mere 3 percent of China’s Newspaper owners either sell them GDP. Located nearby and referred to to more agreeable entrepreneurs or as one of the world’s biggest ports, hire journalists that prove more prone Shenzhen and Shanghai — with their to apply self-censorship than their stock exchange — have in fact taken colleagues, accustomed to freedom of its dominant position. In their pursuit expression standards at work. Neither do of attracting investors, Chinese firms followers of Falun Gong lead an uneasy have in the past moved their premises life, though — compared to what takes to Hong Kong. Now it serves as a place place in mainland China — they are not from where international companies persecuted in any way. Printing books are doing their best to make an entry that are forbidden in other Chinese into the Chinese market. A World Bank regions is possible in Hong Kong – but ranking showed that in Hong Kong, it may be burdened with consequences. is twenty times as easier to do business Four years ago, a group of Hong Kong than in mainland China. booksellers who sold publications eyed by mainland China as “subversive” Hong Kong’s worsening social and suddenly disappeared. They were political situation has prompted young “accidentally” found in China after only people, of whom a majority of protesters a few months later and publicly repented do not remember life under the British of their earlier activities. rule, to emigrate to democratically-led Taiwan, whose leader has offered asylum Beijing sees Hong Kong as an ungrateful to Hong Kong protestors, yet ignoring child that is unable to distinguish all China’s law pertaining to ‘no asylum’. efforts made by its mighty guardian. The events taking place in close vicinity Hong Kong’s local financial elites, to Hong Kong are for some Taiwanese including those that settled in the –– who do not display a particular pro- city in the post-1997 period, show Chinese leaning — evidence of the ‘one gratitude to Beijing for being capable country, two systems’ formula’s practical of enriching themselves by getting dimension while sending worldwide a access to the Chinese market. Efforts signal of how peculiar China’s attitude is are also being taken to gravitate the to fulfilling international obligations. Special Administrative Regions of Hong A spokesperson for Beijing-based Kong and Macau closer to mainland Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to China. Part of a train station located the Sino-British handover deal of 1984 as in the downtown area, linked with “a historical document that no longer had mainland China by a high-speed train, any practical significance”. Therefore it was incorporated into China while the is not known whether the ‘one country,

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two systems’ principle will remain and their actions are orchestrated by in force after Hong Kong’s autonomy foreign-based anti-Chinese forces”. expires in 2047, as stipulated under the Chinese-British agreement, or it is The third similarity is timing close to gradually ceasing to be in force through a significant date. In May 1989, where the use of “salami-slicing tactics”, that protests are already a month long, is; eliminating Hong Kong’s autonomous Mikhail Gorbachev visited Beijing. Such status, piece by piece. a state visit was the first in 3 decades, normalizing relations after the Sino- Moreover, it is not farfetched to argue Soviet split. With a state visit come that limited but worrying resemblances several journalists, which then exposed between Tiananmen and the developing the protests and caused embarrassment. situation in Hong Kong could be Surely no one expected a military inferred. At the least, some lessons learnt crackdown close to October 1, 2019 for are worth scrutinizing, albeit taking the same reason that it would not look into consideration the different contexts, too good. Whilst that date has passed, hindsight, times, and so on. media attention on Hong Kong has not.

The first similarity is the expansion The fourth key similarity, and perhaps the of participating protesters, and with most worrisome, is the accusation by the them, a larger list of demands. In 1989, CPC that the protests are not authentic peaceful student-led call for democracy expressions of disapproval of genuine spread to other cities of China, running problems, but the works of foreign the risk of destabilizing the political intelligence agencies seeking to discredit system. In 2019, the first Hong Kong the CPC. They referred to this as ‘black protesters stood against the extradition hands’ in 1989, and they did so again in bill, yet have since also again demanded 2019. democracy, even references to secession. One ought to wonder how this rings in Before the 1989 Tiananmen Square the ears of the CPC members, which protests unfolded, little had indicated staunchly emphasizes on the country’s the possibility of military intervention. unity. In May 1989, martial law was declared, and in June 1989, the military moved in. The second similarity is a half-hearted A plausible military intrusion in Hong attempt to meet protesters expectations. Kong would, in turn, call up a clear These are met with an increasingly association with the 1989 events. Hence, stern warnings from the CPC. Chief what stands out as a far more plausible spokesman for the Chinese Ministry scenario, however, is responding to the of National Defense Wu Qian said that crisis with a range of political tools, Hong Kong rallies “absolutely cannot though it cannot be ruled out that Beijing be accepted”, hinting the possibility of will react forcefully in the case of the a military intervention by a Chinese tensions running high and getting out of garrison, already on the spot, especially control of law enforcement agents who given that the constitution of the Special are already using tear gas and rubber Autonomous Region allows Hong bullets to quell the groups of protestors. Kong’s leaders to submit such a request Perhaps the Hong Kong police will soon to Beijing officials. In his remarks, Mr. get help from the Chinese People’s Armed Qian added that the demonstrators Police Force — or mainland China’s “have invited the wolf into their home, riot police — as after all, both them are

66 The Warsaw Institute Review The Paradoxes of Autonomy © Vivek Prakash/AFP/East News Pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong is held by a policeman during a confrontation after taking part in a march towards the West Kowloon rail terminal against the proposed extradition bill in Hong Kong, July 7, 2019

carrying out joint drills in the Canton PR catastrophe as engaging troops. An region, just across the border. intervention of Chinese police officers could be depicted through the lens of Intriguingly, developments in Hong propaganda as a regular action taken in a Kong also pose a PR problem for the bid to restore public order. democratic-leaning West, as well as European firms that are present However, what counts most in the case there. Perhaps a solution to Hong of Chinese communists is a message Kong’s hardships would be political on the party’s effectiveness and its independence, modeled on the Baltic unquestionable leadership. After all, States close to the demise of the Soviet this is why Beijing is so touchy about Union. Back then, there were no Taiwan’s independence and U.S. aid indications that the mighty power would there. If there is a solution to the allow three of its republics to detach ongoing conundrum in Hong Kong with virtually no bloodshed, except to attain Beijing’s agreement, it likely for, unfortunately, tragic events at the will have to allow Beijing to ‘save face’, foot of the Vilnius TV tower. Because at the very least, domestically, where a honor, and “saving face”, is known to be policy envisioning a unified China is of crucial importance for hierarchical dogmatically pursued. customs associated with cultures in East Asia, deploying mainland militia to quell Robert Rajczyk pro-democratic protests is not such a September 2019

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2019 European Election and its Outcomes Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, Professor This year’s elections to the European Parliament brought about a number of changes in the shape of EU policy. The most important of them is probably the shifting of the entire spectrum of Euro-enthusiastic forces to the left. Despite the high turnout and the awakened ambitions of MEPs, it quickly became clear that it is the Member States that continue to have the most to say on key issues such as filling the key EU posts. The problem is, therefore, that the intergovernmental logic in the EU dominates over the parliamentary one – and is even trying to use political factions in the European Parliament to pursue national interests.

EP election results following number of seats – Identity and In the European election held in May 2019, Democracy (73), European Conservatives the European People’s Party (EPP) won the and Reformists Group (62), the 5 Star most seats – 182, followed by the left-wing Movement and the Brexit Party (43), and Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – 154. The the European United Left/Nordic Green third force in the EP is the Liberals (former Left (41)1. ALDE, now ‘Renew Europe’) – 108 seats, 1 2019 European election results, European and the fourth – Greens (75). The factions Parliament, https://www.election-results.eu/ considered Eurosceptic will hold onto the [Accessed on: 27.06.2019].

68 The Warsaw Institute Review 2019 European Election and its Outcomes

Charles Michel, President-elect of the European Council, © Kimmo Brandt (PAP/EPA) Finland, October 14, 2019

The elections revealed a very strong however, have increased their number division between Euro-enthusiastic groups of seats in the EP. In addition, the two supporting the process of unification of largest mainstream parties, which so far, EU countries, and Eurosceptic factions, following the German model, having critical of the integration processes and on numerous occasions formed a great proposing an alternative direction of coalition in the European Parliament, its development. These two separate have significantly lost many seats they had groups dispute over the vision of had before. Both EPP and S&D have lost European integration (more centralized around 30 seats, respectively; together, and transnational versus the more they have lost nearly 70 MEPs. In both decentralized and flexible – leaving more factions, the representation of German autonomy for nation-states), as well as members significantly weakened. The European values (liberal and left-wing consequence of the loss of these parties versus conservative and Christian was that it was impossible to form a Democratic). majority in the EP based on the two largest groups. In this way, the Euro-enthusiastic In European Elections, the parties coalition intending to have the greatest of the previous mainstream were the influence on policy and legislation in most successful. Eurosceptic groups, European Parliament, had to seek support

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European Union Elections 2019

EPP – G    E  P’ P  G/EFA – G    G /E  (C  D ) F  A

S D – G    P   A  S EFDD – E   F    D    E  P   D  D  G  ECR – E  C   R  G  ENF – E   N  F   G  ALDE R – G    A  L    D   E  + R + USR PLUS NI – N- M  

GUE/NGL – C   G    E  U L O – N   M       – N  G  L           P 

in two other formations: Renew Europe and the High Representative of the Union (the former Liberals) and the Greens. The for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. mere fact of greater fragmentation in the The European People’s Party was known Euro-enthusiastic camp translated into for its great discipline and enormous serious difficulties in filling the highest influence of the German Christian posts in the EP and in other institutions in Democrats, and was therefore considered the EU. to be an instrument of influence for Chancellor Angela Merkel2. Therefore, An additional factor was the political it was sometimes referred to as the plan of the French President Emmanuel “vehicle” of German politics in the EU. In Macron, who intended to weaken addition, the influence of this faction was Germany’s position in the European complemented by an alliance with the institutions in these elections. Until now, Socialists and Democrats in the European the largest faction, the European People’s Parliament. In this left-wing group, the Party, has been a very effective tool for main role was played by the German German politics. For many politicians Social Democrats – associated with and national parties, its meaning was Merkel’s coalition in Germany. All of this more pragmatic than programmatic. gave Merkel significant influence and Its influence is best reflected in the high effectiveness in politics at EU level. fact that after the previous elections in 2014 it filled not only the position of EP Macron’s first goal was to weaken the President (although only from 2017) position of Germany – above all, the but also all other key positions in the 2 A. Barker, V. Mallet, G. Chazan, EU jobs race hit by EU – the leadership of the European Merkel – Macron friction, Financial Times, June 14, Commission (EC), the European Council 2019, p. 9.

70 The Warsaw Institute Review 2019 European Election and its Outcomes

“German vehicle” which was all about With these strategies, Macron was trying its domination of the European People’s to build a strong leadership center for Party in EU politics. Secondly, it was the future coalition of Euro-enthusiastic aimed at selecting its own vehicle to forces in the EP alongside the former implement French political goals in the liberal and socialist factions. At the same EU. time, he wanted to weaken the previous political and programmatic significance In effect, Macron managed to succeed in of the European People’s Party. He weakening the European People’s Party. sought, in consequence, to strengthen the Not only has it significantly reduced French influence and weaken the German its previous EP influence, measured one in the EP, and, simultaneously, in the primarily by the number of MEPs, entire EU balance of power – because, at but, more importantly, it effectively the moment, the post-election game also weakened the right-wing rhetoric of involved filling key positions in other EU EPP representatives. The intention of bodies, not only in this institution. the conflict over Viktor Orban’s party (Fidesz) during the campaign and the Another consequence of these actions was suspension of rights of this political a clear shift in the European mainstream group was to show the pro-European towards the left and the liberal ideas. nature of the European People’s Party What was symptomatic for the whole and Manfred Weber’s uncompromising formation was the case of the Polish Civic attitude towards defending European Platform (PO), which is one of the largest values. However, it has contributed to national parties forming the European the EPP ceasing to refer to right-wing People’s Party. Until the elections, it and conservative principles, while at the was part of a coalition with left-wing same time adopting liberal rhetoric on parties (including Democratic Left European values and, when it comes to Alliance, Feminist Initiative, Polish Social chosen moral disputes, even taking on Democracy, Freedom and Equality), left-wing views. This not only reduced which clearly shifted its electoral its electoral attractiveness for the right- narration to the left-wing direction. At wing electorate but also put left-wing the same time, it weakened the European and liberal politicians and liberals in election result of the European People’s ‘truly’ pro-European positions. It thus Party, as the political capital of the largest gave the electoral initiative to the Euro- opposition party (PO) was divided into enthusiastic left and the liberals, who smaller groups, representatives of which were increasingly concentrated alongside also joined other factions in the EP. The Macron’s party. It is no coincidence Polish example is very characteristic that the new liberal faction was named of the shift of the Euro-enthusiastic ‘Renew Europe’ after the elections and mainstream towards the left. that the dominant role in its ranks is played by politicians from the French Main results of the EP party La République En Marche! (REM), elections now ruling in France. In addition, within Firstly, the elections weakened the the Socialist and Democrat party, the mainstream right, the European position of German Social Democrats People’s Party, which, by rhetorically weakened after the elections. Spanish approaching the left and the liberals, Socialists, on the other hand, who are in passed the domination in the EP to the close relations with the French president’s Eurosceptic groups, the orientation of milieu, gained ground. most of which is clearly conservative and

3/2019 71 European Union © Julien Warnand (PAP/EPA) Josep Borrell, Nominee for the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Luxembourg, October 14, 2019

fall apart. Moreover, the described changes may lead to a break with the stigmatization The credibility of the of “Eurosceptic” and “populist” groups in favor of terms referring to their new right-wing in Christianity, conservatism, or broadly understood right-wing ideas. The the EP can be further credibility of the new right-wing in the EP can be further enhanced by referring to a enhanced by referring different vision of European integration from the one proposed so far by left-wing to a different vision of and liberal environments.

European integration Secondly, we should expect that the political pressure from EP will be from the one proposed increasing – against countries which, in the opinion of left-wing circles, allegedly so far by left-wing and violate European values, although they often simply try to defend their own liberal environments. Christian and conservative agenda. This applies in particular to the dispute over the Christian Democratic. This is a potentially rule of law and other European values. significant opportunity for these groups in the long term. It may involve the Moreover, the EP will probably seek expansion of influence in the electorate, to increase the scale of European namely occupying the arena formerly redistribution (especially within the belonging to the groups forming the eurozone), introduce protectionist European People’s Party. This faction may solutions, including those moving away become even smaller in the future or even from neoliberal solutions on the internal

72 The Warsaw Institute Review 2019 European Election and its Outcomes market, and intending to increase tax harmonization and minimum standards for social services across the EU. National interests will

In addition, it is to be expected that the be more important than ambitions in the area of climate policy will strengthen. This is related to the success of the approaches of the green groups in some Western European countries, mainly in Germany. European factions.

Furthermore, a stronger criticism of the now occurring in the EP, as evidenced USA and transatlantic relations are likely, by the blocking of the French candidate especially during the period of Donald for the new Commission, Sylvie Goulard. Trump’s administration. The countries The outcome of the latter is affecting the that are too pro-American and are afraid divisions within the mainstream. The of deepening cooperation in European logic of the dispute between France and defense policy so that it does not harm Germany leads both sides to seeking allies NATO’s role in Europe will also be in other EP factions or other countries – in stigmatized. intergovernmental institutions.

Besides, the EP’s position on Brexit and It should be noted, however, that the relations with the United Kingdom could future of many substantive aspects be tightened up – serving, for instance, as of EU policies depends more on a method of combating Euroscepticism intergovernmental institutions policy ideologically. This will be at the expense than on political conditions in the EP. of seeking the most pragmatic bilateral This means that national interests will relations, for instance between the EU be more important than the approaches and the United Kingdom. This is all the of the European factions. Many disputes more so as the EP elections in the UK within intergovernmental institutions also strengthened its position in favor of a go beyond parliamentary divisions, for tougher and uncompromising approach to instance the one between Euro-enthusiasts the EU. vs. Eurosceptics, or between more left- wing or right-wing governments. The Additionally, a strong rivalry appeared role of political groups in disputes within in the European Parliament, not intergovernmental institutions will only between the Euro-enthusiastic probably be even less important than it mainstream and Eurosceptic groups, used to be before the 2019 elections. This but also within the mainstream itself, is mainly caused by the weakening of the especially between the “German bloc” European People’s Party. and the “French bloc.” This situation was barely visible before. The Franco-German There is one very symptomatic example disputes and disagreements between their of all phenomena described. With allies, have so far mainly occurred in regard to the future of the eurozone, the intergovernmental institutions. Fractional French and Spanish governments have disputes are currently being moved to the clearly expressed their Euro-enthusiastic Council of the European Union and the positions. The “Eurosceptic” Italian European Council. National disputes, on government also had similar expectations the other hand, especially within two blocs of increasing redistribution in the centered around the dominant states, are monetary union. On the other hand, the

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Ursula von der Leyen, nominated President of the European Commission, Belgium, October 18, 2019 © Olivier Hoslet (PAP/EPA)

74 The Warsaw Institute Review 2019 European Election and its Outcomes greatest skeptics of the French proposals some countries. For example, Germany and those supported by other countries supported its candidate for the position of of Southern Europe are the governments the head of the European Commission – of Germany, the Netherlands, and the Manfred Weber. The country based on the countries of Northern Europe, regardless informal “Spitzenkandidat” mechanism, of their political affiliation in the EP. The according to which the candidate of line of disagreement over reforms in the the largest group in the new European eurozone surpasses both division into Parliament was to take up this position in euro-enthusiasts vs. Eurosceptics and the European Commission. Macron’s tactic membership of the EP’s political families was to discredit Weber (as incompetent, (for example, the biggest opponent of the weak, and so on) and to disown the of French proposals to reform the monetary “Spitzenkandidat” tradition, as a non- union – Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte treaty one and as limiting European – belongs to the same political group in the Council in its sovereign decisions. This is EP as President Macron’s party, the group why prominent German politicians have re-established by the French leader). accused Macron of not only being anti- German but also of destroying European “Game of Thrones” at the EU democracy3. Furthermore, Macron tried Power in the EU is based on the to build an alternative to a “German institutions, the filling of key functions in vehicle,” i.e., the – European People’s Party the EU structures, and the use of political (EPP) – the composition of EP factions that factions from EP to pursue objectives at will question the EPP’s dominance in EU EU level. That is why the results of the politics to date. It should be added that the EP elections and the related distribution European People’s Party has eight votes in of key posts in the EU institutions were the European Council, and the emerging so important. It turned out that France outline of the left-liberal alliance – 15. and Germany, as well as their national However, this new “liberal vehicle” was interests, are the most important players in only under construction and, therefore, the game for institutions. did not have much meaning for the logic of the European Council designations. In On the formal level, the EP approves the this way, the fractional logic supported – if candidacy of the head of the European anything – Germany rather than France. Commission, and then the list of candidatures of the Commissioners of the In the first phase of the dispute over institutions. It may also interview them the position of head of the European and suggest changes to some of the most Commission, the “spitzenkandidat” of the controversial proposals. Nevertheless, the European People’s Party (Manfred Weber) Member States and the coalitions between and the discredited candidates of other them, and to a smaller extent the logic factions (Frans Timmermans, Margrethe of the political factions, have the most Vestager) were lost. The French President significant influence on filling chosen EU even said that all three leading candidates posts. had been eliminated4. Alternative

3 J. Mischke, Senior MEP accuses Macron of being The arguments relating to European ‘anti-German’, Politico, 24.06.2019, https://www. elections were rather an additional politico.eu/article/senior-mep-accuses-emmanuel- support for these intergovernmental macron-of-being-anti-german-daniel-caspary/ [Accessed on: 27.06.2019]. negotiations and an attempt to impose 4 D.M. Herszenhorn, F. Eder, M. de la Baume, legitimacy-orientated logic, which was R. Momtaz, J. Barigazzi, How Merkel’s plan for EU top supposed to make the game easier for jobs fell apart, Politico, 1.07.2019, https://ww.politico.

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applications were then examined, in Group) was able to maintain its unity in particular the back-up EPP candidates. At very important negotiations – despite the same time, there was a threat that the repeated attempts to break up their blockade of the German candidate might common front (for example Slovak PM translate into a consistent blocking of the belonged to the same European political French for the most important positions. family as Timmermans).

In the second part of the negotiations, a In the third stage, Ursula von der Leyen, Franco-German agreement was reached considered to be closely related to Merkel, with the support of the Dutch and Spanish was proposed as the next candidate. To governments during the G20 summit in some degree surprising, this German Osaka. It was based on the candidacy of the nomination, as well as other accompanying socialist Frans Timmermans as head of the nominations, received broad support Commission. In this way, the institution from the European Council, including the of the “leading candidate” was reactivated, countries of Central Europe. Something although in a modified version matching that was difficult or even impossible to the current political needs (the faction of push through at first, the German option Timmermans did not win the elections, so in the Commission, became a fact in the according to the original assumptions of third round of negotiations. Without the the “spitzenkandidat” mechanism he should battle for Timmermans, there would not not take up the post of the head of the EC). have been such a quick conclusion to the This was conducted rather as a tribute of negotiations. This is undoubtedly a success Angela Merkel for her coalition partner – for Germany and Merkel. France, however, German Social Democrats. It also aimed won even more. Christine Lagarde will be to break up the alliance between Renew President of the European Central Bank. Europe and Socialists and Democrats. In Moreover, this is how the French led to the addition, the package provided for Weber’s blocking of the German candidate Jens transfer to the head of the EP for a full Weidmann, known for his criticism of term of office. Some diplomats suggested Mario Draghi’s unconventional monetary that Timmermans’s proposal meant to policy. Lagarde will not only continue the be a failure from the very beginning and monetary easing line of her predecessor but was intended to pave the way for the next will also encourage European politicians negotiation deal5. Indeed, this agreement to increase fiscal expansion in the event of has been blocked by the Visegrad Group, another crisis. It is also possible that she Italy, and some countries linked to the will agree to finance this expansion within European People’s Party, including Croatia the framework of monetary policy. The and Latvia. This stage was marked by a success of Paris is also its nomination for rebellion in the ranks of the EPP and by the two other posts. Spanish socialist Josep growing emancipation of Central Europe, Borrell will take up the post of the High which at this stage effectively stopped Representative of the Union for Foreign the candidacy of Timmermans, seen as Affairs, while Charles Michel, a member of unfavorable for the region. Moreover, Renew Europe, will be the new President of Central Europe (particularly the Visegrád the European Council.

eu/article/how-angela-merkel-plan-for-eu-top-jobs- Conclusions fell-apart-spitzenkandidat-summit/ [accessed on Firstly, both the governing coalition in the 27.07.2019]. EP and the arrangement of positions in the 5 A. Barker, M. Khan, Timmermans emerges as favorite to take over from Juncker, Financial Times, EU are proof of the post-election shift of 29 June – 30 June 2019, s. 4. the Euro-enthusiastic elites to the left. This

76 The Warsaw Institute Review 2019 European Election and its Outcomes marks the end of the era of dominance of EPP politicians in the EU institutions. It is also no coincidence that the candidacy The Franco-German of Timmermans – although controversial for Central Europe – has been put forward disputes constitute an in relation to more general political processes in the EU. In addition, the opportunity for the new group of people at the top EU posts were enthusiastic about integration. For [Central European] example, von der Leyen is in favor of region to pursue its own the introduction of the ‘United States of Europe’ and the creation of a federal army interests more effectively. for all Europeans6.

Secondly, the post-election reality objectives at EU level. It turned out that proves the superiority of the European France and Germany, as well as their Council and the logic of national interests national interests, are the most important in EU policy. Macron overthrew the in the game of institutions. This confirmed “Spitzenkandidat” mechanism that had the dominance of the Franco-German’ been respected since 2014 because he engine in the EU. However, there was also saw it as more conducive to German a visible competition between Paris and than French European goals. Although Berlin, and both countries were looking many politicians in the European for allies, both in other countries and in Council referred to the results of the other political families. last elections and the mechanism of the “leading candidate,” these were arguments In addition, the new institutions are intended to push through their particular dominated by politicians from the western interests, and not the leading logic of part of the continent. Indeed, Central making personnel decisions. The EP is Europe has stepped out of the shadows of rebellious, as evidenced by the rejection Western Europe, blocking in solidarity of the governments’ suggestions on the the candidacy of Timmermans. However, President of this institution. As a result, this was only a partial success because the the candidacy of the only representative Dutch will be Vice-President of the new of Central Europe for a high office, a Commission. Moreover, the negotiation Bulgarian Sergei Stanishev, was lost. effort of Central Europe has not led to the Moreover, the nomination of von der introduction of its own representatives into Leyen will probably lead to a reduction the most important positions, but rather in the Commission’s autonomy towards to the success of Germany and France. intergovernmental institutions and thus However, cooperation in this region increase the influence in EU policy of the is being increasingly translated into a largest Member States. common policy at EU level, which is likely to deepen in the future. Furthermore, the What is more, the key to power in the EU Franco-German disputes constitute an is filling key functions in its institutions opportunity for the [Central European] as well as using political factions from region to pursue its own interests more the European Parliament to pursue effectively.

6 Z. Weise, Ursula von der Leyen: In her own words, Politico, 4.07.2019, https://www.politico.eu/ Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse [Accessed on 27.07.2019]. September 29, 2019

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The European Union will be better off without Frans Timmermans Piotr Bajda, Professor One can assert, without too much doubt, that during the post-electoral phase, in which the European community fills in the most important EU positions, a political storm had passed that turned many otherwise intricately arranged tables upside down. Albeit we are unlikely to fully recognize all the consequences these events have induced just yet; we can define some of the most important results of our decisions.

n initial point of all the Commission. Other EU members were commotion was the set of informed post factum and, confronted decisions made by President with a fait accompli, were left with only of the European Council the responsibility of authorizing the said ADonald Tusk and the leaders of four already-made vital decisions. The central European countries (Germany, France, feature of the so-called Osaka ‘pact of Spain and the Netherlands) on the five’ was entrusting the Dutch socialist margins of the G20 summit in Osaka, Frans Timmermans with the role of the Japan. This informal, and clearly President of the European Commission. beyond-the-treaty group met outside the official EU calendar, far from The decision taken by the most dominant Brussels, and jointly allocated the key European politicians seemed to prejudge positions for the new term of office of the the matter, and yet this very intricate European Parliament and the European plan incited defiance of absent decision-

78 The Warsaw Institute Review The European Union will be better off without Frans Timmermans

First Vice-President of European Commission Frans Timmermans, Belgium, October 23, 2018 © Patrick Seeger (PAP/EPA)

makers, which could be an important signal, indicative of new times in the EU. Those as mentioned earlier five European The decision taken by leaders in Osaka were convinced that after the European elections, little had the most dominant changed, and their decisions would be European politicians almost automatically accepted by other members of the European Community, as seemed to prejudge the it was often previously the case. Indeed, there were grounds to think as such – matter, and yet this very the first hours of the July’s European Council summit did not prognosticate intricate plan incited any dramaturgy; they were practically a routine repetition of preceding instances, defiance of absent i.e. several rounds of heated discussions, a few breaks, unofficial arranging of decision-makers, which common positions, promises to the undecided, and the highly anticipated could be an important negotiation finale. It could be argued that at the beginning of that summit, Polish signal, indicative of new Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki with the Head of Hungarian Government times in the EU. Viktor Orban were alone in their doubts on whether Timmermans was really the Hungarians, which avidly caused a rather optimal candidate for the head of the unexpected twist. It aptly gave others European Commission. a signal to protest against this manner of making decisions through bypassing Nevertheless, it was the attitude of the treaty bodies and the intergovernmental Polish Prime Minister, supported by the dimension of the community. Most

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© JACQUES WITT/AFP/East News President of the European Commission Jean- Claude Juncker, President of France Emmanuel Macron, and President of EU Council Donald Tusk, attend a meeting during the G20 Summit in Osaka, the European Commission. Especially for June 29, 2019 the Slovaks, persevering in resistance to the imposed decisions had to have been significantly, the Visegrad Group appeared difficult, yet at the end of the day, they again on the European forum as a compact opposed the socialist’s candidacy. block of resistance to such imposed decisions. It is worth emphasizing that We do not know this for certain at the the unity of V4 against Timmermans’ current stage, but it is most probable candidacy was not obvious. The Prime that during these negotiations, the Ministers of the Visegrad countries smaller EU countries have been met represent the circles sitting in various with various forms of pressure or unique European political groups: Poland’s Law persuading offers to handle matters and Justice forms the core of European which are important to them, in exchange conservatives and reformists, Hungary’s for supporting Timmermans. It is not Fidesz is in the main European People’s farfetched to imagine that Czech Prime Party faction, the Czech Republic’s ANO Minister Andrej Babiš could have been is in the liberal group, and Slovakia’s met with a suggestion that sounded Smer-SD is part of the European socialist like problems regarding settling the family. Notwithstanding such a diverse European subsidy for Stork Nest, the political mixture, they adopted a joint congress center, being built by his firm position pertaining to the President of could just “be dealt with.” Meanwhile,

80 The Warsaw Institute Review The European Union will be better off without Frans Timmermans the Slovak delegation could have heard that corruption problems or ambiguities related to the post-murder prosecutor’s The unity of V4 meant investigation in 2018 of the investigative journalist Ján Kuciak do not constitute that other states, namely grounds to doubt the Slovak rule of law. Despite these tempting perspectives, with Lithuania and Prime Minister Babiš explicitly stated that Frans Timmermans is a man who Estonia at the forefront, divides, not unites and that the Slovaks, seeing the chance to build a blocking decided that it was minority, did not break out of the new worth joining this bloc. coalition until the last moment. The Visegrad Group alone is not enough to block decisions taken on the European European Commission chaired by Ursula forum under the qualified majority von der Leyen. procedure, which are unfavorable from the point of view of Central European Perhaps the first self-fulfilling conclusion countries. Still, the signal sent by V4 was drawn may be that the rebellion of Prime picked up by others. Italy joining the Minister Morawiecki, supported by V4 group blocking Timmermans’ choice was and later by other countries, restored most pivotal. Rome, offended by their the order of things in the European omission in negotiations on the allocating Union. Rejuting the bundle from Osaka EU positions, could have decided that meant that it was within the basic EU by impeding the Osaka pact, it would intergovernmental format that the most convey its aspirations and position as one important decisions were made, and of the largest and most consequential EU not solely the arrangements made by countries. the informal group were authorized. Restoring the proper role of Member The unity of V4 meant that other states, States, in the long run, seems to be namely with Lithuania and Estonia at one of the necessary conditions for the forefront, decided that it was worth the successful reform of the European joining this bloc. After the European Union, it cannot be done contradictory Council summit, the comments often to governments elected in free elections accentuated that the nail in the coffin was and having a sufficiently strong social the resistance exhibited by some Prime mandate. In addition, the July events in Ministers of EU countries represented the European Council may be a helpful in the Christian Democrats’ group from lesson for the future, showing the new outside of Central Europe. In all, it is European Commission that the Member possible to reconstruct the course of States do not intend to let themselves be events that led to the spectacular defeat of treated as subjects. We can hope that this Frans Timmermans and the whole idea experience will lead to internal limitation of imposing decisions by an informal by the new leaders of the Community leadership group. institutions in attempts to impose their will against others and to expand their Even more intriguing is the attempt to own competences against EU treaties, identify the initial effects of these events, which unfortunately was a common which in the long term, may have an practice of the outgoing European impact on the functionality of the new Commission.

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The second, no less important, result of alternative decision-making center can be July’s events is the strengthening of the particularly attractive for small European position of Central European countries, Union countries, which were often forced which by many Western European to make decisions against their interests. capitals are still treated as new and not yet The example that this dictate can be Europeanized members of the community. broken can be attractive and contagious The concentration of the blocking for the future. minority around the Visegrad Group, regarded in terms of the nucleus of Central Timmermans’ defeat may have one more European cooperation, was a strong positive consequence. For future leaders signal for the region’s empowerment and of the European institutions it will be declaring aspirations to be treated as one a warning, and they would think twice of the key actors in shaping European before attempting to actively engage in policy. Additionally, the success of the V4 political struggles in a particular member may mean that in the future, especially country, ostentatiously advocating one small EU countries will seek opportunities of the opposition parties to the dispute. to build broader coalitions around It should be expected that European the Visegrad Group. It will be crucial Commissioners can be more restrained whether the Visegrad Group countries in their acts of demonstrative support make joint decisions to use the V4 format for specific political environments. more often to consolidate supporters of Timmermans’s actions against the decisions going against the largest capitals governments in Poland and Hungary or Community institutions. Such an additionally had something perfidious about them; the Dutch politician did not hide that he was well-aware of applying double standards – different towards The second, no less Warsaw and Budapest, and different towards the other Member States, in important, result of which he believes more European elites are in power. Illustrating this best was July's events is the Timmermans selling journalists questions about his assessment of the brutality of strengthening of the the French police pacifying protests of the “yellow vests” movement. What, however, position of Central can be considered a sign of justice is that these actions did not bring him to the European countries, top of the European Commission, but have become one of the main reasons for which by many Western his defeat. Instead of becoming a star in European salons, an effective fighter for European capitals are democracy, and the rule of law, he became perceived as a politician in its full toxic still treated as new and sense. not yet Europeanized Even if Timmermans remains one of the EU commissioners, his influence will be members of the substantially more limited than previously, and he will certainly be removed from community. matters concerning the rule of law. This

82 The Warsaw Institute Review The European Union will be better off without Frans Timmermans

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and newly nominated © Paweł Supernak (PAP) President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen during the meeting in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, Warsaw, July 25, 2019 gives a chance to normalize relations between Warsaw and Brussels for the The new head of the benefit of the entire European Union. Each of the more intelligent and diplomatically European Commission, savvy politicians who aim to build their career in the European institutions will Ursula von der Leyen, for analyze this story and draw appropriate conclusions from it. One could consider her second foreign trip that we can already observe the first who drew a moral from this story. The new chose Warsaw. head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for her second foreign trip different environments, sometimes (after France, because talks in Germany assessing the situation quite differently or are difficult to treat as a foreign visit) chose with other goals. However, many signals Warsaw. She had sent a few very significant show that there is a chance for a more signals before, like the one which was balanced European policy, conducted referring to Poland having received over on the principles of compromise and a million Ukrainians, or the mentions negotiation. In addition, the experience of regarding the rule of law as a criterion Ursula von der Leyen as the Minister of for assessing each of the EU countries. Defense gave her a chance to form a more Of course, the President of the European realistic and acute understanding of the Commission will have to balance between threats associated with the activities of the

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the Community energy policy and the position of EU authorities towards trying An additional effect to make Europe dependent on the supply of Russian energy resources, with the of the election of the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 project at the forefront. Perhaps that is why the German Minister of authors of the article in Politico supposed for that Angela Merkel, the July European Defense now as the Council was the greatest humiliation she had experienced in the history of her head of the European office as German chancellor1. Commission will be the To sum up – it can be deduced that the future endeavors of the new European more direct responsibility Commission should be viewed with small optimism. There is a chance that Central of Germany for the fate Europe will not be so ostentatiously overlooked, and Poland and Hungary of the EU. will cease to be full-time candidates for playing the role of black sheep Russian Federation in the international and whipping boys. If, for the change arena. Hence the announcement of the of the climate of relations within the future head of the European Commission EU, the Central European region will that the EU will conduct some dialogue have to pay the price in the form of the with Russia. However, it is only for lack of its representatives at the most time to show whether she will be more important Community offices, this is a temperate towards the progressive rather acceptable cost. The Osaka Pact agenda, implemented in recent years by also did not offer any serious place for various European institutions and liberal- a representative of our region, which, leftist environments. in some analysts’ comments, was the result of a low assessment of the results of An additional effect of the election of Donald Tusk’s actions as the President of the German Minister of Defense now as the European Council. Bearing in mind the head of the European Commission the challenges facing the EU, the Central will be the more direct responsibility of European region, even in the context Germany for the fate of the EU. So far, of the violation of international law by Berlin has been very effective in achieving the Russian Federation, instead of “a its goals, taking advantage of the situation second Tusk”, it is better to have a more that representatives of other countries united community, able to cooperate at were at the head of the EU institutions. intergovernmental level and to respect The fact that the European Commission each other. is being led by a German politician will force one to act unmasked or with Piotr Bajda self-restraint, so as not to strengthen the September 2019 feeling that Berlin is realizing its goals with the help of the EU, sometimes even 1 https://www.politico.eu/article/how-angela-merkel- against the interests of the community. plan-for-eu-top-jobs-fell-apart-spitzenkandidat- Indubitably, such a litmus test for the summit/?fbclid=IwAR1a-N1vqR5n7iwj7QQoeSHWI new European Commission will be XeWvPQ8pwOvCBHpouX9WTm3TFzI2j09NI0

84 The Warsaw Institute Review V4 in Changeful Espionage Alexander Wielgos Albeit intelligence sharing is a praised notion, leverage-eliciting information is still exchanged for something else. Emphasis is growing on the cyber and private outsourcing angles. As smaller countries can play disproportionately larger roles, it is an imperative for the V4 to keep up, and to do so symbiotically, together. It aptly plays into the ‘two-level game theory’ environment of states, each juggling internal divisions at the same time as divisions between states. Friends and adversaries of the V4 are observing this, and observing others doing the same. And what is seen is that, at the official level, the V4 states still do not yet entirely see certain entities the same; namely Russia, but others too. It is an impediment despite otherwise remarkable political and diplomatic cohesion.

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Left to right: Slovakian Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, Czech Prime © AP Images/EastNews Minister Andrej Babis, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban pose for a family photo during their informal meeting of the heads of the Visegrad Group countries in the Prime Minister’s office in Budapest, Hungary, June 13, 2019

n October 2019, a Slovakian social media, and subtly changing pixels cybersecurity firm, ESET, unmasked in graphic images to convey messages. an espionage operation1, ongoing The malware relays information, can since about 2013. ESET refers to the last years, and continue despite device Iperpetrators as the ‘Dukes’, linked directly changes. to the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, or SVR. As recently Furthermore, as mentioned in a following as June 2019, the Dukes infiltrated the The Warsaw Institute Review (WIR) networks of the Ministries of Foreign article2 of this edition, the Embassy Affairs of two Central European states of the Russian Federation in Prague and one EU state, including the network is a hub for intelligence officers3 using of said EU state in its Embassy in the US. diplomatic cover as well as conducting There may be more than detected thus far. cyber-offensive operations in the Central Eastern European region. Guesses ESET refers to this intrusion as ‘Ghost suggest something like 40% of diplomatic Hunt’. After a period of seeming quiet, personnel in said Embassy could have the Dukes returned with a recalibration a more clandestine nature. The Czech of malware to evade uncovering. Some Counter-Intelligence Service, BIS, of their ploys include: occupying lots of

space with code to hide communications, 2 Martin Svárovský, US military presence in a smaller malware to sneakily install Poland from the regional perspective and potential a programme using information from Czech contribution, The Warsaw Institute Review, 29.10.2019, p.95 3 Ian Willoughby, Czech Agencies Smash Spy Ring 1 Andy Greenberg, Stealthy Russian Hacker Group Operated by “Very Aggressive” Russians, Radio Prague Resurfaces With Clever New Tricks, Wired, 17.10.2019 International, 21.10.2019

86 The Warsaw Institute Review V4 in Changeful Espionage uncovered and dismantled a spy ring in 2018, which attacked its Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was also used for How well they do aggressive disinformation campaigns. Though BIS understands well it is unwise unofficially will be one to be certain that all threats from this activity are mitigated. Tactic changes are of the determinants of likely. the V4’s position on the ESET’s recent findings may or may not be related. The Dukes have been called geopolitical chessboards. ‘Cozy Bear’ or ‘APT 29’ as well, designated as an ‘Advanced Persistent Threat’ by cybersecurity firms. If it rings a bell them, the UK Ambassador’s description it is because they are a relatively more of a rather negative assessment of the sophisticated but lesser known group incumbent US Administration led to his which accompanied the daring ‘Fancy reallocation to a different positing. Bear’, or ‘APT 28’, in breaching the Democratic National Committee of the What the aforementioned give insight to US in 2016. is the value of secrets.

The Dutch Intelligence Agency, AIVD, Changeful Espionage was able to hastily alert the NSA-liaison Forasmuch the V4’s contribution to at the US Embassy in the Hague of this European security is needed to excel attack, as well as another intrusion into not only on the official levels, how well US State Department. Earlier, in 2014, they do unofficially, will be one of the AIVD had gained access to a building4 determinants of the V4’s position on the close to the Red Square, possibly from the geopolitical chessboards. journalism department at 9 Mokhovaya St. of Moscow State University. Little did Thefirst insight would be that, because they know, that from this they would be the UK Ambassador’s leaks highlighted monitoring the APT activity, even taking the existing risk of such feats, as a Foreign photographs of people visiting from the Policy article6 argues, a plausible effect security camera. This enabled AIVD to is self-censorship. An Ambassador’s identify them agents of the SVR, though honest views of developments in the state other cyber security specialists believe the in which she or he is posted is vital in tracks go to the Federal Security Service, formulating the appropriate approaches. the FSB. Uncertain whether this leak was deliberate or enabled by a hack, but because it cannot Besides intrusion, leaks are particularly be ruled out, diplomats elsewhere noted relevant to harmfully altering the the warning. Information is harder to functionality of diplomacy. In July 2019, obtain if it is purposefully omitted. confidential cables of UK Ambassador to the US addressed to the UK Foreign and 5 Commonwealth Office were leaked . In Trump is ‘inept’: Leaked secret cables from ambassador say the President is ‘uniquely dysfunctional and his 4 Huib Modderkolk, Dutch agencies provide crucial career could end in disgrace’, Daily Mail, 06.07.2019 intel about Russia’s interference in US-elections, de 6 Robbie Gramer, Diplomats Fear Chilling Effect of Volkskrant, 25.01.2018 British Ambassador’s Resignation, Foreign Policy, 5 Isabel Oakeshott, Britain’s man in the US says 09.07.2019

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A second insight is that, whilst deepened Ex-CIA intelligence officers established intelligence sharing within EU and NATO consultancy firms, and were hired by is praised as a notion, the happenings UAE government officials8 to build their would suggest that the nature of this intelligence capabilities right from its resembles in some ways almost that of a very foundations. It conveys the extents market place. The incentive of collecting to which the years of accumulated secrets is that they can give leverage experience and training in the field can in both intelligence circles as well as be made use of, and lucratively at that. political or diplomatic ones7. Besides cake and flowers, AIVD and its military If not guiding and training the counterpart, MIVD, met with the NSA intelligence agencies of other and then-Director of National Intelligence governments, states can hire internet of the US. In exchange for access of their mercenaries to license their savvy uncovering, AIVD and MIVD received instruments. Indeed, the private angle information on breaking into mobile would seem able to overcome otherwise phones of some high-level Russian politically incompatible partnerships. intelligence officers, as well as a hint that, Saudi Arabia had purchased services they like to do a quick internet search for from a private Israeli firm, NSO any indication their next attack could be Group, with a sophisticated array of anticipated. surveillance tools9 and their signature ‘Pegasus’ feature. NSO’s clientele It can go further and more formalised. includes the government of Mexico In 2007, Estonia was targeted in a aiming to pursue cartels effectively. Sure, nationwide cyberattack. Plausibly state- WhatsApp messages are encrypted, sponsored by Russia, in retaliation over but a mechanism10, revealed in May political disagreement. Having made 2019, could be installed by a missed strides in digitisation, e-Government call or received message, which then services, banks, voting, etc., the attack erases itself, and then proceeds to copy unveiled its vulnerabilities. Naturally, messages before encryption or after Estonia decided it was having none of decryption. Not to worry, the loophole that, its friends (including all V4 states) has since been addressed. Probably. agreed, and the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence Like most government-enterprise was established in Tallinn, referred revolving doors, these entities can act as to just as the ‘NATO K5’. Since then, an extension of the state, and can also Estonia has significantly accelerated its be hired to simply carry out specific excel in intelligence, cybersecurity, and tasks on their behalf with a solid degree diplomatic circles. of deniability. DarkMatter, a UAE firm, competes with NSO’s software, but is Third, is the steadily increasing role geopolitically motivated against Global of private firms. Similar to private military corporations, security 8 contractors, and mercenaries playing Jenna McLaughlin, Deep Pockets, Deep Cover, Foreign Policy, 21.12.2017 increasingly larger roles in conflict 9 Mark Mazzetti, Adam Goldman, Ronen Burgman, zones. Retiring intelligence officers Nicole Perloth, A New Age of Warfare: How carry with them skill and know-how. Internet Mercenaries Do Battle for Authoritarian Governments, The New York Times, 21.03.2019 10 Mehul Strivastava, WhatsApp voice calls used to 7 Mark Galeotti, Size Doesn’t Matter for Spies inject Israeli spyware on phones, Financial Times, Anymore, Foreign Policy, 31.01.2018 14.05.2019

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Risk Advisors, what could be argued as a counterpart of Qatar. Small pieces on this Fourthly, as everyone is already well aware, is the changing technological chessboard can begin to advances that are both a cause and a symptom of the other insights. Human cast large shadows. intelligence – HUMINT – is valuable because more than just secrets, it also was approached by a charismatic gives intuition into a state’s intent11. individual who befriended him, which The traditional go-to, costly, time turned out to be from the PRC Ministry consuming, and now, much more risky. of State Security14. Preparation requires identification of a tenable recruit, training, a plan to Such feats risk an international scandal go in, a contingency plan to get out, should an intercept occur – we all have formulating an identity that suits heard some unsettling headlines like this addresses, bank accounts, relatives, here and there. This is less appealing to ensuring shadows to catch some small states which are more vulnerable followers, and much more, all of to retaliation. It is not farfetched to which are commodities up for trade. argue that it is becoming more and A Canadian architecture student in more difficult for Western states to spy Moscow, who was seen chatting at the on increasingly authoritarian, closed US consulate in Hong Kong about 3 states, such as Russia and China. The years back on social media, has a phone reverse, however, would seem to face which can be traced to sudden stops at less obstacles. Therefore, it has probably benches in parks or going dark in the crossed people’s minds that activities metro for a couple hours12. of Chinese and Russian intelligence for hints of sources and methods could Other methods including using a be monitored, but from an at least freshly employed officer or a one-time neutral city, such as London or Paris, asset, depending on the scope of the rather than directly from Beijing and operation. The aim is so that the ‘asset’ Moscow15, and vice versa. being recruited by a ‘handler’ does not fully grasp the significance of their Signals intelligence – SIGINT – actions, or the things divulged. In 2018, traditionally requires massive and it was revealed that the driver employed expensive equipment, but as smaller by a US Congresswoman steadily fed aspiring entities have shown, be they information13 to the Chinese Consulate from government agencies or outsourced in San Francisco, for about 20 years. firms, small pieces on this chessboard Possibly nothing classified. However, can begin to cast large shadows. trends, attitudes, atmosphere, and Paradoxically, intelligence activities intent, may be just as useful. Supposedly, in Western states, including the V4, during a family visit in Asia, the driver may find it beneficial to reveal more to remain relevant and credible, with ample 11 Ali Younes, Gina Haspel’s CIA looks to recruit more foreign spies, Al Jazeera, 27.09.2018 14 Matier & Ross, Feinstein had a Chinese spy 12 Edward Lucas, The Spycraft Revolution, Foreign connection she didn’t know about — her driver, San Policy, 27.04.2019 Francisco Chronicle, 01.08.2018 13 Marc Thiessen, Explain the Chinese spy, Sen. 15 Edward Lucas, The Spycraft Revolution, Foreign Feinstein, The Washington Post, 09.08.2018 Policy, 27.04.2019

3/2019 89 Visegrad Report © Pixabay.com/TheDigitalArtist ©

justification for the security-orientated of strategy, particularly of a foreign and necessity of their actions16, if they wish security policy. to refrain from becoming a totalitarian- like police state. Of course, only to ‘Two Level Game Theory’ the extent this does not jeopardise the In 1988, Robert Putnam, a US political operations, a line which is probably scientist and Harvard professor, dumbfoundingly blurry. put forward the generally widely understood, albeit seldomly named, Putting it into context, the reason concept of “two-level game theory”. In for engaging at all in these is that his paper17, he makes an attempt to it has a very real impact on the aptly theorise the entanglement between relevant geopolitical dynamics. Some domestic politics of a country and their extraordinary and tragic stories foreign policy. Whilst it is commonly emerge post factum, like that of the acknowledged that the entanglement Cambridge Five, Ashraf Marwan, Eli exists, it is difficult to anticipate how it Cohen, and others – Poland has some varies on when, in what ways, and to truly legendary and daring stories too, which extents18. like that of Witold Pilecki, Krystyna Skarbek, the German Enigma crackers His research suggests, using an example Marian Rejewski et al, amongst many of multilateral negotiations in 1978 others. Nevertheless, it is the incessant that “first, that the key governments… accumulation and consistency of such efforts that have the potential to sway 17 Robert Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: the Logic of Two-Level Games.”, International decision-making in a more apt course Organization 42, no. 3, published 1988, doi:10.1017/ S0020818300027697., pp. 427–460 16 Ibid. 18 Ibid., p. 427

90 The Warsaw Institute Review V4 in Changeful Espionage adopted policies different from those that the other international actors will they would have pursued in the absence draw from how they observe this of inter-national negotiations, but development, wondering: “those that second, that agreement was possible only are watching this, how do they think this because a powerful minority within each affects their interests?” government actually favored on domestic grounds the policy being demanded Finally, the actors would strive to internationally19.” anticipate the other actors’ reactions to the said development, in pursuit Without internal divisions in a of furthering their own interests. negotiating side, it is unlikely that the “Considering how the others might think foreign demands would have been met. this affects their interests, how can we Yet, without the pressure from the take advantage of this?” follows suit. foreign side, it is even more unlikely Naturally, this notion pertains to state that the internal division would tilt to actors and non-state actors, international favour that same direction20. This is what and local alike. It also entails situations negotiating sides face in diplomacy, most between close friendly partners with especially in elements pertaining to positive intentions, among neutral security. entities, as well as between hostile actors with aggressive or malicious intentions. Observe Those Observing Furthermore, as any geopolitical Furthermore, actors which consider development is undergoing – any at the aforementioned notion would all – the relevant international actors like to carefully consider how known are observing it unfold: the decisions their answers are looking like to other being made, the decisions not being actors, probably as “what do the other made; actions which are initiatory or actors think that we are thinking?” reactionary; the intentions behind them; Responses are can be conveyed clearly, its effects in the short term, medium ambiguously, deliberately deceivingly – term and long term; risks calculated and or, most likely, a clever combination miscalculated; things seen and unseen, of all. and by whom; the diversions consuming attention to and more crucial elements It is difficult to know the precise subtly evading it; spot-on analyses workings of intelligence agencies and demonstrating acute understanding, privately-owned entities – nor we should completely missing the point, and all in be able to know beforehand – as per the between; and so on. nature of the work. What is conveyed about the status quo via the attacks Their observations can be illustrated uncovered by the Slovakian firm ESET with questions, and here they and the Czech Agency BIS, carried out contemplate: “how does this affect our by Russia, and the lessons learnt from interests?” They are also identifying the other instances, merit scrutiny other actors also observing the same through these lenses. development, and they ask themselves secondly: “who else is watching this?” As the Foreign Affairs piece21 argues, US They are considering what conclusions intelligence agencies are striving to adapt

19 Ibid., p. 428 21 Amy Zegart, Michael Morell, Spies, Lies, and 20 Ibid., p. 429 Algorithms, Foreign Affairs, 16.04.2019

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Other notable examples include Europol, the European Union If one does not maintain Military Staff (EUMS), or beyond the institutions, the ‘Club de Berne’, a strategy, and tactics an informal and voluntary-based intelligence sharing forum of the to implement it, one EU member states, Switzerland, and Norway, set up in 1971. Like its more becomes vulnerable to specialised offshoot, the Counter- Terrorism Group (CTG), both those which do. communicate with the EU via the EU Intelligence and Situation Centre (EU INTCEN), part of the EEAS. and maximise use of their advantages. So are Poland, the Czech Republic, Indicative of such value could be a Slovakia, and Hungary adapting to case in which severing an intelligence the changeful espionage. Hence the alliance is arguably more worrying than argument for better intelligence sharing, a state cumbersomely leaving a political- building on top of, or from example, of economic union. In 2011, Japan and existing arrangements. South Korea began steps towards, and formalised in 2016 a military intelligence Intelligence Sharing alliance22; the General Security of Probably the most renowned is the ‘Five Military Information Agreement, Eyes’ intelligence alliance between the GSoMIA. Purposed to inform one US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and New another, two allies of the US, of military Zealand, with joint efforts in HUMINT, activity from North Korea which could SIGINT, as well as geo-spatial imagery, be threatening to either. defence and security intelligence. The Pine Gap facility in the middle of the Though an economic dispute intensified, Australian outback attests finely to it. it was internal pressure in South Korea23 which prompted the unilateral Initially, the UK and US signed a withdrawal in August 2019, and perhaps communications intelligence agreement a peep at other examples of unilateral in 1943, followed up by another in withdrawal after-effects. Both sides may 1946 to formalise the WW2-period be losing sleep over GSoMIA, as Japan agreements in this field. In 1948, Canada and South Korea are currently making joined, as well as Australia and New efforts to rekindle bilateral relations, but Zealand in 1956, though their precise it is not simple. status would change. The two-level‘ game theory’ and Since then, certain states have been ‘observing observers’ lenses put into coordinating with Five Eyes in context the wider picture of why the arrangements dubbed ‘Nine Eyes’, or increasingly sophisticated tactics to even ‘Fourteen Eyes’. Other highly serve a better strategy. To clarify: a specific and temporary instances of ‘strategy’ is a direction of policy; and coordination include a total of 41 countries sharing military intelligence 22 Grace Shao, South Korea is scrapping a security in context of NATO missions in deal with Japan — here’s why it matters, CNBC, Afghanistan. 23.08.2019 23 Ibid.

92 The Warsaw Institute Review V4 in Changeful Espionage a ‘tactic’, is a specific means to pursue power is perceived by other actors, a strategy. If one does not maintain a because that is what they will act strategy, and tactics to implement it, one accordingly to. It would be unwise to becomes vulnerable to those which do. think the V4 will not be challenged upon taking up such a feat. That said, certain strategies of Poland’s multilateral-orientated foreign policies The V4 would address this by being undertaken in partnerships: the Eastern more refined. Not just concerning Partnership (EaP), formed by Poland and enhanced technical abilities against Sweden; the Bucharest Nine (B9), formed aggressive actions of Russia, or by Romania and Poland; the Three infrastructure protection with regard to Seas Initiative (3SI), formed by Poland China, but also a subtle yet apparently and Croatia; and recently, the Warsaw negative, power hogging German Process, formed by Poland and the US; influence in European institutions, and although continuously improving, which from the perspective of Poland, they are certainly worthy of applause. accompanies a deliberate distortion of Continuous improvement is grounds for history which could indicate perhaps success. unfavourable intentions.

Hence, the argument is that for the V4 Moreover, the V4’s role in foreign the next, correct, and natural step in and security policy in Europe is defensive measures is to at the very least, becoming clearer as it goes ahead seriously consider the concept to deepen upon sufficient alignment on both intelligence cooperation, contemplating domestic and international fronts. the points discussed. So rather than waiting to first being better politically aligned, and then Enhanced intelligence cooperation, deepening intelligence cooperation, not just on the military intelligence it is the other way around: deepening front, is necessary because the tactics intelligence cooperation will naturally used against the V4 are not limited lead to being better politically aligned. to military intelligence. Having a Sure, cohesion between each of the well-developed military intelligence V4 states is not immaculately perfect, cooperation already, namely via NATO, and it never will be. But as the ‘two- is a fundamental advantage which level game theory’ tells us, that is a minimises the adversaries’ options. good thing. Even better, the political cohesion is nevertheless incredibly It also pertains to timing, such as remarkable, so much so, that it is good the UK and the intelligence sharing enough. Perhaps, meetings at the Prime adjustments upon the departure, and Minister or Presidential levels may the upcoming Presidential elections in become a tad more interesting. 2020. In no specific order, the things conveyed – and the things observed – It is also a clear message to friends, from just the intent of such is a message particularly those in existing to adversaries that their previous efforts frameworks, that this is a collection have been noted, they have been taken of reliable partners. Argumentation seriously, and future efforts will be here is in large part an extension of the impeded in multitude. Just as important lines of existing V4 rhetoric. It is an as the actual capability to exert force endeavour which is achievable, noting in this field, is how the projection of the changing times and the potential of

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Republican Guard, they made precarious way to Turkey with some new company At the end of the and some maps. As a result, the US helped alleviate half of Poland’s national day, it was only Poland debt, incurred of course, by the PRL. to agree to the daring Poland has demonstrated time and time again throughout its history that it is endeavour. a reliable partner. The V4, in turn, has also demonstrated time and time again throughout its history that its cohesion smaller states doing more, small states has the capacity to make very real, doing more together makes sense. tangible differences on the international arena, and in standing up for the right This is especially pertinent so that the V4 thing. states find themselves on the right side of the gap between countries successfully The arguments for deepening adjusting to the changing environments intelligence cooperation between the of espionage in all its foreseeable and V4 states are intricate and intertwined: unforeseeable dimensions with each it is achievable, the timing is pretty good day that passes. That is not to say, (there is no absolutely perfect time), we the V4 states are not doing their bit like each other enough to set out rules – their efforts are recognisable, both that will be followed, the domestic- in state intelligence agencies, private foreign intertwining is healthy enough, cyber-security firms, ministries (e.g. the enhanced capabilities on a more the 5-point plan of the Ministry of specific front has much needed added Digitisation of Poland, or the CyberMil value, joining efforts makes us keep up of the Ministry of National Defence of with the changing times like adjusting to Poland) – this is an encouragement to technology and the private sector, as well the V4 to keep going, and for the V4’s as, the signal to friends and adversaries friends, to help out, because it is in their being quite clear. interest too. In recent years more so than ever Poland At the end of the day has shown intent to stand up for partners In 1990, just preceding the First Gulf in the Central Eastern European region, War, the CIA had six agents stranded but not only here. Doing so it is in the in Iraq24. The US appealed to select interest of each V4 state, to Central intelligence agencies in Europe, Eastern Europe, and possibly even to the including France, the UK, and even the world, providing example to other states USSR for help. At the end of the day, it seeking cooperation, and to a larger was only Poland to agree to the daring extent, attesting to humanity being able endeavour, dubbed ‘Operacja Samum’. to, and choosing to, prevent conflict and A team of Poles went to their previously pursue advancement. existing engineering firm in Iraq with half a dozen additional Polish passports. In the backdrop of suspicion from the Alexander Wielgos 24 Jan Wojciech Piekarski, Polski Most Szpiegów: Kulisy operacji dyplomatycznych oczami ambasadora September 2019 RP, Wydawnictwo SQN, published 2018, p. 19

94 The Warsaw Institute Review US military presence in Poland from the regional perspective and potential Czech contribution Martin Svárovský The central importance of codified doctrine lies not only in the particular way it can animate and optimize national military forces, but also in the efficient manner by which it can transmit messages to the adversary.

Introduction New deployment to Poland or the Baltic When Russia started military operations states reflects the adjustments in the US in eastern Ukraine and illegally annexed force posture. The goal of the deployment Crimea in 2014, both sides of the Atlantic is to strengthen the resilience of the reacted by force posture changes and Eastern Flank of NATO. At the same time, economic sanctions. Where the USA these redeployments fit into the new US changed also its strategic doctrine, Europe global strategy that envisages updates has not. The Strategic Concept of NATO in overall US defense and deterrence remains in place and basic doctrinal architecture. documents of decisive European powers witnessed tactical rather than strategic Wide range of policy recommendations shifts. by the US strategic thinkers demonstrate

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Presidents of the US Donald Trump and Poland Andrzej Duda during © Radek Pietruszka (PAP) a bilateral meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York. Both statesmen signed a joint declaration on deepening defense cooperation. US, September 23, 2019

the fact that the United States took the attention. The US is openly declaring a events in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and the resolve to approach them from a position meddling into the US elections altogether of strength and points out the need to as a genuine game changer. Policy rethink the policy of engagement with reflection of these recommendations is still rivals. The new US strategic doctrine evolving and so is hence the ultimate shape does not see military force just as an of the US military presence in Poland. instrument of urgent crisis management. It attaches a significant role to the US deployment to Poland as military in pursuing America’s national an integral part of the new interests. At the same time, the wording American strategic doctrine of all these doctrinal documents clearly indicates the will to cooperate with The New American Strategic partners while handling different security Doctrine issues from a position of strength. The latest US National Security Strategy, Naturally, Europe is identified as a key the National Defense Strategy, or the partner for the USA. Nuclear Posture Review, represent a significant shift in American strategic Some elements of the American strategic thinking and policymaking. Adversaries, doctrine deserve attention since they pose rather than terrorism, are the center of both a challenge and a chance for NATO:

96 The Warsaw Institute Review US military presence in Poland from the regional perspective and potential Czech contribution

1. Peace through strength. This means it is at least questionable whether they tailored sanctions as an effective political serve as a distinct actualization of the tool with coercive potential, arms sales’ DDPR. role in international relations or a substantial increase of the defense budget. For instance, in the text of DDPR, the primary role assigned to the tactical 2. US changes in nuclear doctrine and nuclear weapons is in disarmament policy. deterrence architecture. The United States This is in sharp contradiction to Russia’s declare the need to react to the significant strategy on tactical nukes. No country is development of both the capabilities and considered as an adversary according to the military doctrines of adversaries. It the DDPR and NATO seeks “cooperation argues for strengthening the integration on missile defense with Russia”. of the nuclear and non-nuclear military planning with the aim to defeat the subject This year though, the Alliance adopted adversary’s strategy. two new strategic documents: The “Political Guidance” that defines the level 3. US skepticism against arms control. The of ambition of NATO and the “Military USA comprehends that arms control is an strategy” that reflects upon a new character integral part of Russia’s military strategy: of threats. Both these documents are to advance its own military position while classified… What a different approach to weakening that of its enemies. the “messaging” role of doctrine from the American one! 4. Great power competition, not terrorism, as a primary global issue. This paradigm As for the military aspect, last three changes the US strategy in some particular summits in Wales, Warsaw and Brussels regions. The National Defense Strategy proved the NATO’s adaptability on calls for “dynamic force employment” in changed security environment, emerged an effort to prepare the US military for adversary threat and the new warfare. the transition from focusing on fighting NATO’s military structures work terrorist groups to a possible great-power intensively and diligently on the necessary conflict with about the same force size. adjustments (deterrence, command It calls for greater agility, more lethality, and control, readiness and forward less operational predictability, higher presence). Nevertheless, the weak points readiness, irregular deployments, and of the Alliance are somewhere else: first, maximum surge capacity. the fragile political cohesion due to the divergent threat assessments. Second, an The situation of NATO and its insufficient European level of ambition European Members within NATO1. And third, the pace of the On the other side of the Atlantic, the adaptation of NATO. situation looks much different. NATO has decided not to change its Strategic Concept 1 NATO’s current level of ambition is for the entire alliance to maintain the capabilities for collective from 2010. The basic document defining defense against a near-peer competitor, in what is called the defense and deterrence posture of the a Major Joint Operation-Plus (MJO+), or to conduct Alliance (“Defense and Deterrence Posture concurrently eight less demanding missions, two at the Major Joint Operation (MJO) level and six Smaller Review”, DDPR) is from 2012 and is simply Joint Operations (SJO). The problem is, that European outdated. Albeit, subsequent official texts capabilities within NATO are weak in terms of Combat do cover defense and deterrence, such as support and Combat support service i.e. logistics, life support etc. Most of the NATO combat teams (brigades) the Warsaw Summit 2016 Communiqué, are actually European ones. Yet, their readiness and or the Brussels Summit 2018 Declaration, deployability without the US support is rather low.

3/2019 97 Visegrad Report © Andrzej Iwanczuk/REPORTER NATO Summit in Warsaw. US President Barack Obama, Polish President Andrzej Duda, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Warsaw, July 08, 2016

Modular approach to NATO their timeline until 2021. The third one, security that will entail the force posture change The Alliance does plan to adjust its whole of the entire European Theatre, should force structure to strengthen the security be ready by 2024. The same applies to the of the European theatre. The plan foresees pace of the defense planning. For instance, three stages. The first two, covering the the commitments of the Czech Republic Very High Readiness Joint Task Force and from the latest NATO Defense Planning the entire NATO Response Force, have Process envisage the creation of a mid-

98 The Warsaw Institute Review US military presence in Poland from the regional perspective and potential Czech contribution armored brigade by 2025 and the full- fledged heavy armored brigade by 2026. All this speaks in favor All this is happening against the backdrop of extremely high readiness of the Russian of deploying additional forces. Readiness that is regularly checked in massive scale exercises with a highly US capabilities to Polish problematic scenario. The Alliance estimates that the Russian troops are territory. combat-ready within 1-2 days and within 3-4 days they can conduct limited, the readiness and aforementioned shorter and within 8-10 days, major military response times of the Polish army. operations in the territory of Baltic states. This means that the conflict can start Western Europeans must widely tomorrow, regardless of the pace of the accept this modular approach. It is in NATO multilateral adaptive processes. full harmony with the Article 3 of the Washington Treaty. The Czech Republic How to solve the puzzle of Russian with its experience from difficult NATO readiness on one side and the rather debates accompanying the ballistic slow process in NATO on the other? missile defense plan on its territory, Apart from multilateral initiatives, should be supportive of Poland. In 2008, like the NATO Readiness Initiative, the U.S. Secretary of State and the Czech the individual or bilateral solutions are Foreign Minister signed an agreement needed. This is what one could call a on hosting a radar base for a planned “modular approach.” U.S. missile-defense system. Only later, after the Alliance took its time to discuss Reaction time is a decisive factor. implications of the project for the defense Deployment in Poland is the key solution. of the Alliance and to resolve diverging The US forces in Poland have shorter opinions as to “how”, the system was response times for contingencies on the “NATO-ized”. Eastern Flank compared to the forces that are stationed in the United States The US military presence as a or in Western Europe. They can start contribution to the resilience degrading the Russian anti-access / area- of Poland against external denial capabilities and maneuvering to threats defend threatened points along NATO’s The military presence of the United States eastern frontier right in the initial phase in Poland is in the interest of Poland, the of the conflict. Poland’s geographic depth region of Eastern Flank, as well as in the would leave the U.S. forces less vulnerable interest of the United States. The New to an initial salvo by Russian area-denial American strategic doctrine says the US capabilities than if they were positioned needs Europe for the deterring of Russia, in the Baltic states. Such forces could one of the four main adversaries of the hold Kaliningrad at risk, particularly if United States. accompanied by capabilities designed to counter Russian artillery advantages The resolve of Poland, its commitment to over NATO units, such as multiple launch contribute to regional stability, burden rocket systems or high-mobility artillery sharing and making the deployment cost- rocket systems. Their effectiveness will be effective for the US government, strength multiplied by the substantive increase of of its own armed forces, support of the

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public and its adjacent position to the doctrinal approach are still evolving. The most vulnerable part of NATO – all this emphasis on the rotational character of speaks in favor of deploying additional the US deployment has its advocates, such US capabilities to Polish territory. Hosting as gen. B. Hodges or Air Force Lt. Gen. the US forces on very high readiness as Tod Wolters, U.S. European Command. well as an increase in readiness of its The others, like gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, own army might also prove valuable Wolters’s predecessor, advocate rather for contingencies beyond the borders of a mix of enhanced permanent and NATO. rotational presence.

Future modality of the US Recent declaration of the presidents military presence in Poland; Trump and Duda suggests that we will rotational and/or permanent probably be witnessing some mix of all The current U.S. posture in Poland the three above mentioned components2: includes a mission command element, an Armored Brigade Combat Team on The final shape will be known after a rotational basis, a Stryker infantry further US-Polish negotiations that might battalion serving as the Poland eFP last up to one more year. Looking closely battalion, limited combat support at the presidential declaration, four enablers, a US aviation Detachment and tactical elements seem particularly worth a sustainment task force. The number noting: of U.S. troops in Poland is on annual average about 4,500. 1. An open question about naval component. The presidential declaration American strategists have been does not refer to this. Yet, the “US advocating for an enhancement of this dynamic force employment” counts on an posture for quite a while. Discussion increased naval posture. The situation focused on the combination of the in the Baltic Sea presents a particularly division headquarters in Poland and interesting opportunity. NATO naval the corps command headquarters in forces, including the Polish ones, already Germany, a permanent placement of have both numeric and capability long-range artillery, air and missile advantages over the Russian assets. defense, prepositioned hardware stocks or They are able to challenge the Russian an armored brigade combat team boosted improvements in A2/AD capabilities by fire and combat support. The question that threaten the ability of surface and whether these enhancements will consist aviation forces to operate freely. rather of strengthened rotational presence with prepositioned equipment, of a more 2. Another interesting point is the permanent presence or of an enormous establishment of a U.S. Air Force boost for readiness and capabilities of the MQ-9 Intelligence, Surveillance, and Polish army, is still open. Reconnaissance squadron in Poland. The United States intends, the presidents The composition of the enhanced military claimed, to share information derived presence in Poland must correspond to from this squadron’s operations, as the new American doctrine, mainly the appropriate, in support of “our defense National Defense Strategy. It is crucial objectives”. It is remarkable because it fits for the Congressional approval of the 2 https://www.president.pl/en/news/art,1069,joint- necessary funds. Concrete tactical declaration-on-defense-cooperation-regarding-us- considerations within the new American force-posture-in-the-republic-of-poland.html.

100 The Warsaw Institute Review US military presence in Poland from the regional perspective and potential Czech contribution to general US strategic thinking, counting on the US deployment to Poland should on autonomous unmanned aircraft for be regarded as relevant. US deployment to overcoming existing Russian A2/AD Poland is about their security. capabilities. The meaning of the US and 3. An open question of further shifts NATO presence in Poland for (after the command structure) of forces the resilience of the Eastern from Germany to Poland. Experts Flank of NATO like gen. Breedlow or former NATO For countries most exposed to the Russian DSG Wershbow do not recommend threat, strengthening of the defense and this. According to them, further deterrence posture of NATO is among enhancements should largely build on their highest priorities. Indeed, the best the significant US capabilities already way to defend our states is to secure a deployed in Poland and could be state of affairs in which the enemy will not complemented by capabilities from other launch an attack. We have to ask ourselves NATO Allies. whether our present contribution to the deterrence in the Eastern flank of 4. Integration of the Polish “Homar” the Alliance is sufficient. A potential program into the US enhanced force enemy of the Alliance will not come to posture on the Polish territory. Poland, believe our resolve by simply reading similarly to Romania, is going to NATO’s Strategic Concept. The whole purchase a Mobility Artillery Rocket picture comprises of military doctrines System (HIMARS) with the range of and preparedness of individual NATO 300 km. American strategists are of members. the opinion that investment in the capabilities and capacity of long-range The worst possible scenario on fires could undermine Russian advantage the NATO’s Eastern Flank in fires capabilities. Programs to further The most relevant crisis scenario on the develop long-range precision fires for Eastern Flank is a possible Russian attack the multiple launch rocket system up to on the Baltics. Russia has capabilities 500 km have a significant role in these needed for its realization (the actively built considerations. Anti-Access/Area-Denial concept covering the whole Baltics; sufficient firepower of NATO context armored brigades; elite parachute division Mandate of the Congress encourages in the Pskov Oblast; regular exercises). the administration to take into account political consequences for NATO. Polish We have to analyze the question of why diplomacy is well aware of the importance Russia would conduct an attack, even of the Alliance context. Positions of the though it knows that its fight with NATO in key European Allies, besides the stance of the Baltics would eventually be lost. There the NATO structures as such, might play are various factors in Russian reasoning, an important role. Recent Polish top- such as the relative considerable stability level meetings in Brussels as well as the of Russian regime or an opportunity to language of the presidential declaration boost extreme Russian national pride, stressing the importance of the NATO and in its view an elevation of its position context, are symptoms of this awareness. on the international arena, by means of The support of the Czech Republic and a quick overrun of the Baltic states and other Allied countries on the Eastern a subsequent agreement with the West, Flank within the expected NATO debate similar to the “six-point peace plan” of the

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political sensitivity even more. Russia’s offer of a “political solution”, during the course An attack under the of a conflict, would give a further spin to an extreme political challenge for NATO’s Article 5 threshold could political cohesion. The probability of this scenario is not high. be even more dangerous Nevertheless, we must be prepared for even a low-probability scenario. The legitimacy for the Alliance than of working with such scenarios is evident by simply looking at the current numbers a conventional attack of Russian forces in the region or at their, above it. regularly practiced, readiness. There are other possible modalities of a Russo-Georgian War in 2008. By launching potential attack, as it can be waged sub- a risky venture in the Baltics, Russia would strategically (via the cyber domain; singular assert its position in the international or limited attacks on vessels or aircrafts arena even more than in Syria. The Baltic or on important railroads), accompanied states would be given a lesson and a clear by massive (dis)information campaigns. message would be sent to all other countries From the political point of view, an attack thinking about NATO membership: “Even under the Article 5 threshold could be though the membership in NATO will even more dangerous for the Alliance than provide you a guarantee of aid (Article 5 of a conventional attack above it. It can fuel the Washington Treaty), it will not prevent extreme sensitive political discussion about you from ever being attacked.” what should be the appropriate reaction.

In such a scenario, the Alliance would In any case, the argument of “doves”, be confronted with the necessity to carry meaning that when considering an attack out an operation liberating the Baltic against the Baltics, Russia must reckon countries. Even in the best course of action, with the possibility of a “devastating the liberation operation would require conventional defeat”, which discourages it certain time to gather forces. Some military from attacking, does not seem plausible. It simulations estimate this time to be 35 days. is hard to believe that the Western political The closure of the Suwalki Corridor by representation, much less the public, Russian forces would create a very difficult would accede to such thing as inflicting obstacle for the Alliance to overcome. These a “devastating conventional defeat” on factors, plus the eventuality of Russian Russia.3 On the contrary, there would be limited nuclear de-escalatory strikes, the an enormous pressure calling for closing a long range hi-precision strike danger would deal with Russia (in the manner of the six- make any counteroffensive from NATO point peace plan of the Russo-Georgian likewise very difficult. war) already during the liberation operation. Russians must know this very Additionally, the liberation operation well, therefore the political vulnerability would demand launching strikes against targets (surface-to-air, surface-to-surface) 3 A truly “devastating conventional defeat” would that are located in close proximity to the mean the NATO forces would keep going 100 km further after liberating the Baltics and would seize Baltics, i.e. on Russian soil. It poses a risk some land from Russia – as a punishment and as a of further escalation and increases the clear proof of Russia’s defeat.

102 The Warsaw Institute Review US military presence in Poland from the regional perspective and potential Czech contribution

Tree planting ceremony commemorating the B9 © Mateusz Grochocki/East News and the 70th anniversary of NATO, Warsaw, April 4, 2019

of the West will play a much bigger role in strategic challenge in the Russian eyes Russian calculations than the possibility of as well. a “devastating conventional defeat”. Baltic armed forces are continuously The response of the West and consequently expanding their heavy comes from the Eastern Flank forces. All three of them have made itself purchases that considerably boosted If these adventurous thoughts are indeed their military capabilities. Especially the in the minds of Russian strategists, we progress in building heavy armored units must ask ourselves whether we are able and self-propelled artillery is of great to reduce their attractiveness. Polish as importance. On top of that, regardless of well as US forces on very high readiness their size, armies of Lithuania, Estonia on the Polish soil help with this, together and Latvia are well-trained, and their with the armed forces of the Baltic staff is characterized by patriotism and states. The Baltic states and Poland form high motivation. a single operational space connected with the vulnerable Suwalki Corridor. It Thus, the three Baltic countries and is prudent to assume that the territories Poland are increasing their contribution represent a single integrated operational- to the Alliance’s deterrence capabilities.

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While assessing the Czech contribution with Polish and US forces. The Czech to NATO’s defense and deterrence Republic earmarks the 7th mechanized capabilities, we have to distinguish brigade for the collective defense task between assurance measures and and for this purpose it is affiliated deterrence measures. Czech Army with the Multinational Division must focus more on high readiness and North-East Headquarters in Elblag. deterrence capabilities. The deployment This affiliation currently encompasses of a mortar platoon to the eFP battalion only a provision of exercise plans for in Latvia or mechanized company the brigade as a member of a larger in Lithuania on stand-by regime are multinational formation. However, the such examples. Yet, a plan to build a level of cooperation could be upgraded new airborne regiment, as the Czech substantially to an actual rotational General Staff plans, can have its reasons deployment of the brigade’s battalion- as well. Yet, it will have a deterrence sized task force in the Elblag’s area of meaning only if it is trained and responsibility, with essential combat equipped for snap contingency in the support and combat service support. Baltic territory. Similar applies to the Besides an actual rise of the number Czech participation in the building of of troops in the area, thus directly follow-on forces within German “Nation contributing to the need to deploy Framework Concept”. Robust follow- more forces in the area for deterrence, on forces of NATO are needed, but the regular rotation of the task group to its very topical issue for our security is the home brigade would also greatly expand readiness and the deterrence on the the brigade’s knowledge of the area frontline. and main reinforcement routes, thus also contributing to the credibility of The impact of the US military NATO’s reinforcement approach. Such a presence in Poland and the measure would certainly be very costly, new American doctrine for but given the planned increase of the the security of the Czech Czech defense budget, the priority of the Republic. Recommendation collective defense task, and the likely for the Czech Foreign and future redeployment of forces from crisis Security Policy. management operations, the necessary The Czech Republic has adopted many resources should be found. aspects of NATO’s Adaptation into its own strategic documents, planning and Other options include increase in capabilities development. Nevertheless, exercises in the Eastern flank. The for the Czech Republic supporting new airborne regiment (to be set up the new US strategic doctrine means from 2020) could also contribute to complementing NATO obligations with this task. The new unit is intended for bilateral and multilateral arrangements, rapid deployments to address quickly in line with the ‘modular’ approach emerging crises. The Czech Republic explained above. plans that this unit will be ready for deployment in a matter of hours. As When it comes to the ‘forward aforementioned reasons depict, this deployment’ and ‘high readiness/ ability ought to be frequently exercised fast reinforcement’ aspects of the on the Eastern flank, joining other US strategy, the obvious option is a multinational units operating in the forward positioning in Poland, in close area. Special Forces of the Czech cooperation and regular exercising Armed Forces are, too, expected to be

104 The Warsaw Institute Review US military presence in Poland from the regional perspective and potential Czech contribution employable in full spectrum of conflicts, including those of high intensity. Since Special Forces has no practical Russian intelligence is experience with these scenarios, they could exercise regularly with its US and very active in Prague and Polish counterparts – some analysts have even proposed for the US 10th Special makes effective use of Forces Group activities with the Polish Special Forces Command in Krakow to diplomatic cover. be made a permanent training platform for SOF of Polish and Baltic countries. Czechs could join such an effort and Here, the Czech Republic also has an jointly exercise the employment of SOF important role to play. It is a known fact in high intensity scenarios. that Russian intelligence is very active in Prague and makes effective use of In addition to supporting deterrence diplomatic cover – the Russian Embassy through the forward deployment in Prague is by far the largest in terms of and high readiness/reinforcement, diplomatic personnel and it is confirmed Russia’s possible attack would count in public reports of Czech intelligence on the inability of the Alliance to agencies that a substantial number of agree on a swift and overwhelming this personnel are intelligence officers. It response. Kremlin has been stoking is also believed that Russian intelligence the indecisiveness of NATO as a whole uses Prague as a hub for its operations and individual Allies through the non- in the region of central Europe. Czech military aspects of the hybrid warfare. services should therefore step up their This is something that Moscow has been efforts to uncover and disrupt Russian doing for years: supporting anti-NATO malicious activities and degrade and pro-Russian parties and pressure Russian influence network, making its groups, using economic projects to bind effective use in a crisis with NATO less influence groups or whole governments likely. Likewise, a rather robust Czech to itself and attempting to delegitimize institutional base for combatting cyber opponents. Such a long-term campaign and information threats should prioritize alone could significantly affect resolve of working against Russian hybrid threats some Allies. And it is likely that in the and the military Cyber and Information event of a Russian military adventure Operations Command should also focus against the Eastern flank of NATO, its activities on exercising operations in the non-military aspect would play a support of national and Allied effort in significant role, precisely to prevent the Eastern flank. fast and resolute decisions – protests by Russian sympathizers, blockades of And one, rather daring option that reinforcing troops and many more. would address both aspects of deterrence (forward deployment + reinforcement, Deterrence can be built up against and preventing Russia’s non-military hybrid campaigns by credible attribution disruptions) is to make the 7th of the source; naming and shaming; mechanized brigade (and possibly other the proportionate responses showing force elements, such as a Gripen air that hybrid attacks will be consistently defence detachment) to be put on alert answered and in a collective and united and ready to start the movement to way. Poland automatically based on certain

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Russian threat indicators. A bilateral reinforcements could be brought to defense agreement with Poland would the theatre. Increasing the capabilities be concluded that would specify events of NATO ground forces in Europe— which would trigger putting the brigade through an enhanced U.S. presence, on alert – such as full mobilization of boosted readiness of European NATO Russian Western Military District, and forces and large-scale exercises—will the brigade’s movement to reinforce strengthen the Alliance’s ability to deter the Eastern Flank – for example after Russia. the first land military incursion into NATO’s territory. Since this would be United States may also seek a few agreed by the sides and mandated by the European partners to participate beyond parliaments in advance, Russia would not their contributions to the US-led NATO be able to disrupt at the time of NATO’s eFP battle group in Poland. Allies could contemplation of a counter-attack. In line contribute to the force posture in Poland with ‘modular approach’, this has to be in several ways: increased rotational later coordinated with NATO collective presence (e.g., the UK, Germany, or defence plans. another ally could deploy forces with the current US rotational BCT), deployment Conclusion of enablers, deployment of special Year 2014 meant a genuine change for forces units, and deployment of their the United States. Its main doctrinal own aviation and naval detachments documents call Russia a competitor to support exercises and training. Such with revisionist ambitions. No change eventualities should be debated with in this is expected any time soon. Some greater urgency in the Czech Republic. experts even call the current situation The Czech Republic is encouraged to “Cold War II”. We, the Europeans, do not welcome and support the US presence only need to thoroughly analyze the new in the region. As shown above, there are American doctrine, but we also need a several options how to contribute to the frank strategic debate on political level to Polish-US effort. determine whether this trend in the US foreign policy represents an opportunity As for the regional context, the countries for Europe, or not. most exposed to the Russian threat need to become “agenda setters” on the Coherence of the Alliance and global scale. One of the strategic issues complementarity between NATO and that might be addressed by them is the US armies are of paramount importance growing doctrinal gap between Europe for the Eastern Flank. While the and the USA. Namely, the format that NATO eFP battle groups and the US is the “Bucharest Nine”, gathering these rotational brigade combat team both countries, provides a good platform for have warfighting capabilities, they lack such European strategic and doctrinal a comprehensive and coordinated battle debate. The aim of it is to come up with a plan between NATO and the United constructive agenda for the transatlantic States, as well as adequate enablers— bond and for the Eastern flank of NATO including intelligence, surveillance, and while keeping the political cohesion and reconnaissance assets; air and missile solidarity of the Alliance. defense; and long-range fires. A Russian conventional attack on a very short Martin Svárovský warning could defeat these forward- September 2019 deployed NATO and US forces before

106 The Warsaw Institute Review The Position of the V4 in Terms of Security Challenges Threatening the European Union Dániel Fónyi

Introduction Actions taken by the Visegrad Following the migration crisis period, countries in the most the Visegrad countries have formed a important areas close union to protect their interests. However, the work within the V4 had Military security become more intensive even before the Following accession into the EU in 2004, 2015 events. Today, through cooperation the issue of military cooperation within within the organisation, over 100 meetings the V4 had largely been a Cinderella issue and consultations are held each year by mainly in terms of plans, though after involving experts and decision makers 2010 there has been a noticeable shift. This of the four states, ranging from security is due to the fact that the global security policy to energy to economic affairs. environment has also changed: on the one In this article we focus on two issues: hand, the United Kingdom’s departure firstly, the position of the V4 on key from the European Union has opened the issues affecting the European Union and, way to deepening military cooperation, secondly, the measures taken by the V4 and with the election of Donald Trump countries in this regard, with particular the United States increasingly calls for focus on only the most significant security a more proportionate burden-sharing challenges. within NATO. Finally, Russian aggression

3/2019 107 Visegrad Report © Paweł Supernak© Paweł (PAP) Celebration of the 20th anniversary of accession to NATO. Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary joined NATO on March 12, 1999. Slovakia joined the Alliance in 2004. Warsaw, March 10, 2019

also raises concerns that Donald Trump, The V4’s deepening of elected in 2016, has made NATO-sceptical statements. Relations with NATO and the military cooperation United States are of critical importance for the V4, as these two entities are still is also motivated by the most prominent guarantors of their security in the international arena. It fears that Washington should be emphasised that military cooperation within the framework of the could further reduce its V4 is not aimed at replacing cooperation within NATO, but rather at fulfilling presence in Europe, as alliance obligations more effectively Washington increasingly through cooperation. One of the most spectacular achievements focuses on the Pacific. of the Visegrad countries in the area is the formation of the Visegrad Battlegroup, against Ukraine has shed new light on proving the V4’s ability to contribute the possibility of a conventional armed significantly to the security objectives of clash in Europe. The launch of Pesco the European Union and NATO, whilst demonstrates the EU’s determination. demonstrating their commitment to the United States. The military unit, being in The V4’s deepening of military service for half a year since 1 January 2016, cooperation is also motivated by fears consists of 950 Polish, 750 Czech, 400- that Washington could further reduce Hungarian and 400 Slovakian soldiers. its presence in Europe, as Washington Some experts have voiced opinions increasingly focuses on the Pacific. It suggesting that this is not even the most

108 The Warsaw Institute Review The Position of the V4 in Terms of Security Challenges Threatening the European Union significant achievement of the Visegrad Education Platform, but little progress in countries; it would be the document of the realization thereof was made in the the “Long Term Vision of the Visegrad following years. In addition, after 2010, Countries on Deepening their Defence the Visegrad states decided to acquire Cooperation and the Framework for mobile 3D radars and jointly upgrade their Enhanced Visegrad Defence Planning helicopter fleet, however, these had partly Cooperation” issued in March 2014, failed. and related to the establishment of the Visegrad Battlegroup, which has set goals Achieving the 2 percent GDP ratio and ambitions for defence cooperation for commitment to NATO is still uncertain: the first time since the existence of the V4. in the case of Poland, defence expenditure is just about barely meeting this target, Coordination of the defence planning, the but it is under constant pressure. Hungary exchange of the necessary information has recently increased its expenditure. The and the deepening of joint training Hungarian government has announced commenced since 2010. Under the the “Zrínyi 2026” Defence and Military auspices of the cooperation, a larger joint Development Program, in the framework military exercise is conducted each year, of which, Hungary is set to acquire as well as smaller ones, if circumstances modern equipment, and with this, permit. To illustrate NATO’s appreciation, Budapest has pledged to continue growing the Counter Intelligence Centre of its defence budget in the coming years. Excellence was opened in Krakow. During Thus, military cooperation within the its implementation phase, not only the framework of the Visegrad Cooperation strengths of the V4 were revealed, however, is unabatedly a promising policy that can but its weaknesses were also exposed be capitalised on to achieve more with less when disputes arose between the parties, financial investment. for example, regarding the appointment of the staff of the institution. The centre Russia and Ukraine of excellence will play an increasingly Following the Georgian clash and the crucial role in curbing the effectiveness Russian-Estonian cyber war, relations of Russia’s preferred disinformation between the EU and Moscow began to operations in the future. Recently it normalise temporarily, but due to the has become common for V4 soldiers to interventions in Ukraine and Syria, and cooperate closely in international missions the broken relationship between the for reasons related to both cost saving and United States and Russia, the relations organisational development: for example, between the European and Russian close cooperation was exhibited in Kosovo political elite has deteriorated. Moreover, by Czechs and Slovaks; in Cyprus by the V4 are divided on this issue: albeit it Hungarians and Slovaks; and in Iraq by is true that during the crisis in Ukraine Poles and Slovaks. the states of the bloc concurred with the central resolution of the EU and NATO At the same time, it should be emphasised and called upon Moscow to respect that military cooperation is still far from the territorial integrity of Ukraine, optimal, it is therefore advisable for the beyond that, however, fractures can be Visegrad countries to further deepen their identified. For example, Poland has taken cooperation in the coming years. Several a confrontational stance against Russia, cases can be cited to illustrate this: for advocating the introduction of economic example, in 2013, a decision was made sanctions. The Czech Republic has taken to set up the Visegrad Group Military a similar stance on the issue, though a

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between the bloc and Ukraine began to improve again. During the Hungarian Following the Ukrainian Presidency of the V4, the deterioration in the relationship with the Ukrainian revolution, the Visegrad leadership was due to the situation that in 2017, Ukrainian legislature adopted countries immediately an Education Law that restricts the use of minority languages in the education conveyed their system, and more specifically in secondary and higher education. In addition to the substantial support. violation of rights and the diminution of minority rights, it is feared that this slightly more lenient one than Poland. measure of Kyiv will make the country Slovakia and Hungary, by contrast, do more unstable. There was an obvious not regard Moscow as a hostile power lack of consensus within the V4 on this with which no positive relationship issue, and the parties stressed the need could be maintained, especially if it is to find a compromise, but on the whole economically justified. Hungary has the Visegrad countries did not manage to attempted to appear neutral on the issue, uniformly act within the EU regarding the which is also necessitated by intensified Education Law. energy cooperation with Russia regarding the expansion of the Paks Nuclear Power Energy security Plant. For the EU, the prioritisation of energy security issues was elevated when relations As a result of the existing disagreement with its main source of import, Russia, between the said parties, relations with deteriorated as a result of the events Moscow do not really appear at the V4 in Ukraine. It should be emphasised official level. However, it is precisely the that energy policy was already at the ‘omission’ of Russia that impedes the forefront of the attention of the V4 Visegrad Cooperation from gaining more before 2010, which is not surprising international influence. Strengthening considering that the countries of the Ukraine from the Visegrad countries’ bloc are highly vulnerable to import point of view is essential, given that the changes. The importance of this issue is country functions as a kind of ‘shield’ well illustrated by the 2018-2019 Slovak for the bloc against Russia, which Presidency of the V4 identifying this as poses a threat to the region through its a strategic area. Under such auspices, unpredictable foreign policy. Following three major initiatives can be recognised: the Ukrainian revolution, the Visegrad supporting projects that strengthen energy countries immediately conveyed their independence, closer cooperation on substantial support: in 2014, the V4 renewable energy sources, and developing ministers of foreign affairs jointly the North-South energy corridor. The visited Kyiv, promising to help Ukraine Visegrad countries have shown signs they implement the reforms after the change believe that nuclear power plays a key role in government. The importance of the in improving energy independence. In this country to them is depicted by the fact regard, the Visegrad Initiative for Nuclear that it is one of those that has benefitted Cooperation should be highlighted, for the most from the Visegrad Development example, in the framework of which the Fund in the last decade. During the states are deepening the nuclear energy Slovakian Presidency of the V4, relations cooperation and conduct researches

110 The Warsaw Institute Review The Position of the V4 in Terms of Security Challenges Threatening the European Union on helium-cooled reactors. The Czech Republic provides the necessary helium technology, Slovakia the design and Action of the V4 during safety control know-how, Hungary the knowledge of nuclear fuel, and Poland its the migration crisis experience of material science. showed that the bloc can In the field of energy, the V4 coordinate seriously influence policy formally and informally. A major step forward was the setup of the Permanent development across the Forum of Energy Regulators in 2016, in the framework of which, two meetings EU if it can uniformly act were held in 2017 with representatives of the bloc’s regulatory bodies. Several in enforcing its interests. conferences on energy security have been and continue to be held by Visegrad Illegal immigration countries, and an energy think tank has Illegal immigration is considered to be been launched recently with the financial one of the major security challenges for support of the Visegrad Fund. In order the European Union in the long term. to develop the North-South Corridor, the In this regard, the V4 have been strongly gas transport infrastructure of Slovakia supporting border protection and local and Hungary has been connected, and assistance in problematic areas, as opposed the work between Poland and Slovakia to admitting immigrants en masse. More also commenced last year. There is also an than a few analysts expressed their opinion undergoing plan for the connection of the that the bloc’s role has been valued in the Polish-Czech gas pipeline. EU mainly due to the migration crisis. The V4 countries vehemently rejected Furthermore, the Visegrad countries are the possible introduction of a migration increasingly paying attention to liquified quota, which has led Western European natural gas (LNG) as an alternative to states to accuse these countries of lacking traditional sources, which is increasingly European solidarity. In contrast, the V4 valued globally. It should be recalled stance is that it is the sovereign right of each that over the last decade there has been state to determine what solidarity means a slow but steady rearrangement in the and to define the criteria for determining global energy market due to technological who is admitted to their territory. This advances. The United States has moved is well reflected in the resolution of the from an energy importer to an exporter Slovak political elite: they were willing to in Europe as a result of shale oil and accommodate migrants and refugees, but shale gas extraction. V4 countries have only if the Slovak state can set the different been lobbying the EU to support the criteria for judging their admission. The expansion of the Central European states of the bloc would rather support a liquid gas infrastructure, both financially more flexible solidarity, with a system less and politically. As an example, it ought engraved than the migration quota, to help to be emphasised that by connecting the EU countries suffering from massive the Polish-Slovakian gas pipeline influxes. On the whole, however, the action network, Slovakia will have access to the of the V4 during the migration crisis Świnoujście liquified natural gas (LNG) showed that the bloc can seriously influence terminal, which will allow Bratislava a policy development across the EU if it can more intensive energy diversification. uniformly act in enforcing its interests.

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For the Visegrad countries, rejecting the a well-functioning regional cooperation quota or admitting immigrants en masse after the regime change, which would is also due to their lack of experience in be particularly useful to “export” to the integrating different cultures, and over the Western Balkans, where tensions and centuries, multiculturalism has appeared in distrust still dominate relations between a negative rather than a positive light in the the states. Benefits of the “model imitation” region. are shown, for example, by the setup of the West Balkan Fund (WBF) in 2015, which Hence, the eyes of the EU have become was modelled on the International Visegrad steadily and gradually drawn paying Fund. The idea itself also emerged from attention to Africa. Especially in regard the V4 region: in 2010, the implementation to illegal immigration. For similar of the WBF was raised by two NGOs, and reasons, following the events of 2015, the then the idea was officially promoted by V4 countries pledged to cooperate closer the Visegrad countries during the Czech to a modest degree on the continent’s Presidency of the V4. The states in the bloc development policy. Several actors in the voted in favour of a grant of EUR 80,000 to countries of the bloc have declared the help the operation of the WBF. It should be need to bring aid in rather than admitting noted that the Fund is currently struggling immigrants en masse. This, however, makes with underfunding. With the support of it essential to increase the capabilities which the Visegrad Development Fund, programs really enable them to operate in Africa aimed at improving relations between effectively. There are also other signs that local countries have also been affirmed. the Visegrad countries are serious about The project of the “Western Balkans Expert extending their influence in Africa. Poland, Network” can be considered a rather the Czech Republic and Hungary have significant initiative, which provided increased the number of their delegations further training for judicial staff in the in sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to the Western Balkans in 2014. present, as well as increased the number of their soldiers and police from the countries During the migration crisis, the V4 actively of the bloc have recently served in missions assisted the Balkan states in strengthening in Mali and the Central African Republic. their border protection, for example, by sending police officers there. However, this The Western Balkans action undertaking has been mainly carried Providing political stability in the out through bilateral agreements, avoiding Balkans is crucial for the V4, as the bloc’s the formal organisational structure. One states are almost immediately affected can observe analysts approaching the by any negative event. This finding was matter being divided, where considerable accentuated by the migration crisis. For arguments do not see this as a disadvantage; the Visegrad countries, promoting the some believe that it provides the bloc a high accession of the Western Balkans to the EU degree of flexibility. The argument follows is a strategic objective. Several exchanges up on this with that the international of experience, educational and cultural environment is ideal for the V4 to extend initiatives have been affirmed by the V4. their influence in the region, since as a The former mainly concerns how the result of the events in recent years, Western countries of the Western Balkans are to Europe has lost some of its credibility and prepare for joining the European Union attractiveness. As a result of the increasingly and how they can further develop the intensive disputes and other circumstances operation of their democratic institutions. within the EU, resistance to the expansion Additionally, the Visegrad countries built of the bloc remains strong. In these, it is

112 The Warsaw Institute Review The Position of the V4 in Terms of Security Challenges Threatening the European Union © Vit Simanek (PAP/CTK) Presidents, left to right: Milos Zeman of Czech Republic, Janos Ader of Hungary, Andrzej Duda of Poland, Zuzana Caputova of Slovakia, Borut Pahor of Slovenia, and Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia, join hands at a photo session prior to the opening of the plenary session of Visegrad Group countries, Lany chateau, Czech Republic, October 3, 2019 important to recognise that the V4 cannot compete in the region with China namely, which has extraordinary financial means to The Visegrad countries gain influence. demonstrate to Western Albeit considerable economic interests in the Western Balkans for the Visegrad Europe that even if they countries are limited in scope for the criticise several policies, time being, the importance of the region is steadily and surely increasing in this they are committed to regard. Coordination of the development of the transport and energy infrastructure the EU. of the Western Balkan countries and the strengthening of local discourse on raised by the invitation of Poland to the this topic were focused on during the Berlin process. Poland’s Presidency of Hungarian Presidency of the V4. This the Berlin Process was culminated in the remained a priority during the Slovak Western Balkans Summit was hosted Presidency. By working in the region, in July in Poznan this year, making the Visegrad countries demonstrate to remarkable contributions as the Ministry Western Europe that even if they criticise of Foreign Affairs was accompanied also several policies, they are committed to the by the Ministry of Entrepreneurship and EU. Through their support to the Western Technology to underscore the integration Balkans, the V4 is also strengthening its facilitation across various levels and position within the EU by proving that platforms, as was enabled by Poland’s and they are ready to use their own accession the V4 countries’ experience. experience in order to prepare these countries. Finally, the influence of the Dániel Fónyi V4 in the region is being even further September 2019

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Poland First – Poland’s prescription for hard times Wojciech Jakóbik Poland is continuously benefiting from the guarantee of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, renowned for assuring the help of allies in case of an attack on its territory. However, increasingly uncertain times seem impending, therein compelling Poland to reach for additional protective measures. Given Poland’s staunch support and avid role in NATO, such pursuits would be beyond military-orientated issues, mainly in the form of robust economic relations, notably, including in the energy sector. Operating within the EU but likewise also beyond it, furthering such endeavors would provide access to natural resources and technologies, and are likely to continue to draw the attention of the US, perhaps more than at any time in the history of the countries’ long- standing relations.

114 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland First – Poland’s prescription for hard times

Flags of Poland and NATO. Warsaw, March 7, 2019 © Jakub Kamiński (PAP)

NATO limits relevant namely to Poland and the Baltic NATO reasonably interprets Russia’s states, and via the Arctic Sea, pertinent growing ambitions and actions, to Scandinavian states1, appeared in the characteristic of violations of international formal communication coming from the law such as the illegal annexation of Warsaw NATO Summit in 2016. Generally Crimea, as malicious intent. Hence, speaking, it is natural that governments accompanying several other measures, and other international organizations, the North Atlantic Alliance reinforces specifically the EU (as noted by the the Eastern Flank by deploying regularly author), which are better specialized rotating security forces near the borders economically are more active in, and take of states neighboring Russia. The Eastern on greater degrees of responsibility in Flank is aware it should accelerate existing the area of energy security. Nonetheless, efforts, enable the rapid response times to NATO is closely monitoring the influence plausible threats, namely such as incidents of the situation in the energy sectors on risking provocation in the Suwalki corridor. security dynamics. NATO attaches great Strategists, analysts, commentators, and importance to supply diversification within pundits alike of NATO member states the entire Euro-Atlantic region, more than also make no secret that, at the same time, is commonly appreciated. Therefore, we new additional measures are necessary will be incessantly enhancing the strategic deterrents on this particular geopolitical alertness in this matter, with aims such as chessboard. exchanging intelligence and information, as well as further developing relations with At present, the strategic concept of NATO international organizations, such as the provides for analyses of energy security International Energy Agency and the EU – of its member states, recognizing it as an imperative factor in the calculus of their foreign and security policies. Supplies 1 http://biznesalert.pl/bezpieczenstwo-energetyczne- of natural resources via the Baltic Sea, komunikacie-ze-szczytu-nato-warszawie/

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the engine of economic development of the US, which shifted from the position of an In essence, better importer to an exporter of hydrocarbon thanks to the Shale Revolution. Moreover, economic ties in Poland the idea of the international relations visible in the actions of American Congressmen additionally stabilize contains a concept of a policy providing for bilateral aid for allies with the use of mechanisms for US all possible tools, including technologies, natural resources, and raw materials. As a geostrategic interests result, American foreign policy’s “carriers” where US foreign policies – Japan, South Korea, and Norway, appeared. Poland has already become a can fluctuate. carrier to some extent and the development of cooperation in the energy industry may as NATO member states leaders elaborated increase both its strategic weight and the in the communiqué mentioned above2. strategic scope for Americans. There are at least three fields for cooperation in the Another carrier of the USA regard mentioned above: gas, nuclear, and As it is difficult to find compelling cyberspace. arguments to encourage NATO to take care of the energy security of Poland, Gas perhaps it would be more sensible to Poland is increasing the purchases of convince the main shareholder of the liquefied natural gas, referred to as LNG, Alliance to play an increasingly larger role from the US. The volume of the US gas, in it? That is what Poland has begun to do. deriving from numerous contracts with Poles are planning to develop even closer PGNiG, that will be at Poland’s disposal, relations with the US. Besides purchases after 2022, will reach 9.45 billion cubic of subsequent armament parts within the meters a year. This is almost the same context of military cooperation, the energy amount as the maximal volume of industry may become a core of significantly purchases from Russia under the Yamal enhanced economic cooperation with the Contract (8-10.2 billion cubic meters a Americans. As such, the US would be aptly year), which expires in the second year incentivized to maintain or even further of the following decade. This means that strategic contributions in Poland, regardless American natural gas entering the Polish of their foreign policy shifts. In essence, market together with supplies from Norway better economic ties in Poland additionally through the Baltic Pipe will allow Poland stabilize mechanisms for US geostrategic to reduce or even abandon supplies from interests where US foreign policies can Russia. The remaining volume will re-enter fluctuate. the world markets, and PGNiG will benefit from the middle-man redistribution, In this context, it is worth recalling that the standing shoulder to shoulder with other economic program of the Presidents of the LNG trading giants, such as BP or Shell3. US, Donald Trump’s administration called “America First” assumes that the export of It is worth stressing that the liberalization of natural resources and technology will be the gas market conditions the development

2 http://biznesalert.pl/polska-walka-o- 3 http://biznesalert.pl/pgnig-jak-shell-lng-usa- bezpieczenstwo-energetyczne-szczytu-nato/ udzialy-gazoport-zloze/

116 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland First – Poland’s prescription for hard times © Marcin Bielecki (PAP) First long-term shipment of US LNG at the Lech Kaczyński LNG Terminal, Świnoujście, July 26, 2019

of the gas hub in Poland. Infrastructure will allow increasing diversifying suppliers Attaining additional until 2022. Therefore, the liberalization of the market and admitting new players supplies via Świnoujście, which could re-export gas imported to Poland through cross-border connections, as well as from the US, e.g. to Lithuania or Slovakia ought to be the next step. The author maintains the improves the negotiation argument that the development of the LNG position of Poland in trade by making more use of the PGNiG office in London should be considered talks with any supplier. as preparations for softening the Polish market after 2022. This company, without relation to the current market conditions the burden of the Yamal Contract but but should also consider that most of the with unique competences in the LNG contracts will be realized after 2022, when trade, may then become less dependent these conditions may be different. The on the development of the situation in the portfolio of the American contracts is as domestic gas market. follows4:

Whilst the price of LNG supplies from In October, PGNiG signed two binding the USA to Poland is not precisely defined long-term contracts for LNG supply with just yet, it is not a decisive factor whether Venture Global Calcasieu Pass and Venture gas should be imported or not. Attaining Global Plaquemines LNG. Each contract additional supplies via Świnoujście, as well provides for the purchase by PGNiG of as from the US, improves the negotiation about 1 million tons of LNG (which is position of Poland in talks with any about 1.35 billion cubic meters of re- supplier. Lithuania publicly announced gasified natural gas) every year for 20 years. in 2014 that as a result of adding such Supplies will be realized in the free-on- an alternative to the supply portfolio, it board (FOB) formula, which means that obtained a lowered price from Gazprom PGNiG is responsible for the cargo from by 20%. Poland could achieve a similar favorable offer in 2022. One can try to 4 http://biznesalert.pl/pgnig-cheniere-umowa-lng- estimate the price of LNG from the USA in usa-fort-trump/

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offer, was enabled by the contract with Cheniere. Furthermore, the competitive Poland and the US have price at these volumes is also enabled by the anticipated contract for Norwegian gas signed a memorandum supplies through the Baltic Pipe, which may moreover give the Polish gas market of nuclear energy a degree of price-setting abilities. In such an optimistic scenario, Poland would cooperation. become a reference point for the pricings of gas contracts and be considered genuine the moment of shipping. These supplies will competition for Germany, not mentioning enter the global market. It is not defined yet the relatively expensive long-term whether the PGNiG’s strategy will include agreements sorts of the Yamal contract5. the purchase of a fleet of LNG tankers for international trade. Unofficially, it is Nuclear rumored that such a possibility is taken into Although the conditions in the nuclear consideration. sector have hinted indications, it may be optimal also for Poland-US mutually In November, PGNiG signed a long-term beneficial energy cooperation, in contract for 24 years of US LNG supplies what way remains to be determined. with the company Cheniere Energy. The Americans could participate in the tender contract involves supplies of 0.52 million proceedings for the supply of technology. tons of LNG (0.7 billion cubic meters after US enterprises could opt for a share in the regasification) in the years 2019-2022 and construction of the Polish nuclear power about 29 million tons (about 39 billion plant, as Poland is planning to construct cubic meters) in the years 2023-2042. 6-9 GW plants6 by 2045. The contract with Cheniere includes the Delivery ex Ship (DES) provision, which Attesting to existing exploration, Poland makes the American supplier responsible and the US have signed a memorandum for the cargo delivery. This means that all of nuclear energy cooperation, following possible market fluctuations will increase up on a preceding document on energy the cost born by the supplier and will not industry cooperation7. The US nuclear increase the price paid by the recipient, umbrella based on the land-sea-air triad PGNiG. Supplies from Cheniere are is linked to the civil nuclear energy sector. dedicated to the Polish market. The first was After their most intensive work period, delivered to Świnoujście on July 26, 2019, military staff are guaranteed a soft landing by the Oak Spirit LNG tanker. According onto leadership positions in civil solution- to the declarations of the Polish authorities, orientated companies. Companies in the the price of this contract can compete with civil sector, in turn, constitute a natural the offers in the European market and is source of innovation for the military sector, probably indexed to the levels of the Belgian and are the recipients of solutions given by TTF stock exchange. Furthermore, this this sector to the civilian one. would indicate that the price of supplies may be comparable to the offers at this level 5 http://biznesalert.pl/lng-usa-polska-pgnig- and compete with, for example, proposals cheniere-centrica-cena/ of Gazprom in Western Europe. 6 http://biznesalert.pl/polska-atom-szesc-reaktorow- 2040-piotr-naimski/ 7 https://biznesalert.pl/atom-memorandum- Larger supply volumes, at a price energetyka-jadrowa-wspolpraca-polska-usa- competitive in relation to the Russian energetyka/

118 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland First – Poland’s prescription for hard times

Therefore, the “America First” approach in this field will extend beyond only the promotion of US companies in tender Poles were among the proceedings due to economic prospects, it will be vital for security issues because of first in the world to aforementioned factors, as well as namely for US foreign policy – the US will (and participate in the GridEx should) compete with the offers made exercise, ongoing since mainly by China and Russia. This is particularly visible in Europe. New nuclear 2011. The GridEx 2019 blocs in the Visegrad Group member states are becoming the object of rivalry edition was attended by between the mentioned powers and they are a chessboard of general economic 6500 people from 450 competition in the region between them. organizations. The Polish nuclear program may become an object of a similar scenario. Despite It will turn out whether such a scenario recurrent signals regarding the interest of is possible. Autumn is a time of decisions Rosatom, Poland is currently negotiating on this matter, as Poles are unable to wait with the US, South Korea and France. much longer. The Polish Energy Policy until Washington does have an advantage here. 2040 includes the construction of the first The US government could provide financial nuclear power plant in 2033. Therefore, support by using many means of foreign considering the time of construction investments in countries crucial to the US estimated at a decade, there is less and less foreign and security policy. Such initiatives time for a decision. are appearing in the US Senate. They could result in a long-lasting policy of creating Cyberspace the aforementioned “carriers” not only in The US has been supporting Poland developing countries but also in developed in another dimension of the energy ones, such as Poland, and the nuclear sector industry, namely by means of protection would become an additional, new crucial of its cyberspace through Polskie Sieci element for US-Polish cooperation in Elektroenergetyczne (PSE). Poland – as one foreign policy and security8. of few allies – was invited to participate in exercise during which it could improve its If we are to be convinced by the declarations capabilities to react to hacking and cyber of the government, negotiations are threats against the energy sector10. ongoing on the involvement of the US or another foreign partner in covering Poles were among the first in the world about half of the cost. US companies and to participate in the GridEx exercise, those related to the US, such as Bechtel or ongoing since 2011. The GridEx 2019 General Electric, could take responsibility edition was attended by 6500 people from for particular components of the project. 450 organizations. Exercises will be taking It is worth stressing the significance of this place regularly every two years. One part sector for the national security of the US9. of the exercise, entitled “CyberStrike,”

8 https://biznesalert.pl/polska-usa-wspolpraca- energetyka-atom-memoirandum-wsparcie/ energetyka-jadrowa-bezpieczenstwo-nato-parasol- 10 http://biznesalert.pl/naimski-wspolpraca- nuklearny-energetyka-gaz-atom/ miedzynarodowa-to-klucz-do-skutecznej- 9 http://biznesalert.pl/atom-usa-polska-ppej- cyberobrona-cc4es-energetyka/

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especially in the face of growing tension in the relations with Iran and the long Long-lasting cooperation history of cyber-attacks on the US and its allies conducted by entities localized in between Polish and China, Russia, North Korea and mentioned Iran. According to the author, long-lasting American services in cooperation between Polish and American services in cybersecurity could develop into cybersecurity could further cooperation within the SIGINT develop into further information intelligence fields, with the possibility to include Poland into the works cooperation within the of the Five Eyes alliance. This is an informal association of Anglo-Saxon services SIGINT information engaged in this matter. intelligence fields, with Poland First? Joint efforts of Poles in the security the possibility to include and energy sectors merits attracting further attention onto Poland from the Poland into the works of US. The NATO alliance is the ultimate guarantee, but subsequent contracts and the Five Eyes alliance. the enhancement of relations between companies are additional incentives for focuses on protection from threats American efforts to assure security in specifically to the energy sector. During our part of the world. If the analyses of this exercise, attacks similar to the ones a part of security specialists who predict which paralyzed the industry and energy an increasing return of isolationism to distribution systems in Ukraine in 2015 US foreign policy appear to be correct, and 2016 are simulated. Poland will be these forms of enhanced relations will be organizing a similar exercise called PolEx especially crucial. This is already hinted every year11. The inaugural exercise from in the “America First” approach, which November 2018 resulted in a series of subordinates US foreign policy to the recommendations of the US Department interest of the domestic economic policy of Energy, Ministry of Energy of Poland, in a cruder manner. If energy cooperation and the Ministry of Entrepreneurship and with Poland supports the economic Technology (MPiT) of Poland and the development of America, it will be even Government Plenipotentiary for Strategic more determined to protect this allied state Energy Infrastructure. Americans declared and steadfast friend on the international their readiness to support the organization arena. It is, therefore, both possible and of subsequent PolEx exercises prepared by mutually beneficial that successful energy Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne. The next cooperation will encourage American edition12 is scheduled for 2020. strategists to create the “Poland First” approach in the future of US policy striving The cooperation between Poland and to simultaneously secure interests on both the United States in cyberspace is vital, foreign and domestic fronts.

11 http://biznesalert.pl/polex-polska-i-usa-beda- regularnie-cwiczyc-obrone/ Wojciech Jakóbik 12 http://biznesalert.pl/sordyl-polish-grid-exercise- September 2019 to-nowa-jakosc-cyberbezpieczenstwa-w-energetyce/

120 The Warsaw Institute Review Author Biographies

Piotr Bajda Wojciech Jakóbik Piotr Bajda holds a doctoral degree in Wojciech Jakóbik is an energy analyst, Political Science. He is a lecturer at the co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University BiznesAlert.pl, lecturer at Eastern Europe in Warsaw, Poland since 2007. He Collegium of the University of Warsaw, as worked as a researcher at the Institute of well as Editorial Board member of ‘Sprawy Political Studies of the Polish Academy Międzynarodowe’. p. 114 of Sciences (2006–2013). Between 2000-2004, he was Deputy Director of Maria Kądzielska the Polish Institute in Bratislava; from Maria Kądzielska is a press and television 2005 to 2009 he worked at the Centre journalist, author of “Teraz Azja” series at for Eastern Studies (OSW) and was DoRzeczy.pl, PhD student at the Institute a representative of the International of Philosophy of Politics of the University Visegrad Fund (Trustee for Poland) of Warsaw, analyst of Singapore’s political between 2013–2016. system. p. 78 p. 51

Dániel Fónyi Mariusz Klarecki Dániel Fónyi is a foreign and security Mariusz Klarecki is an art historian and a policy expert based in Budapest. He has long-time specialist in the study of Polish been working for Századvég Foundation wartime losses and the paintings of Józef as and associate Research Fellow and Brandt and his students. He also worked Policy Consultant. He's main areas as a consultant during the archaeological of experties are security and defense excavations at the site of the Saxon Palace policy, homeland security and the and the former royal mint in Warsaw Central European region. He holds a in 2006-2009. He worked at the DESA degree of the Miklós Zrínyi National Unicum Auction House, Polish Heritage Defense University and the National Conservation Workshops in Warsaw. University of Public Service. Daniel is Currently, he works at the Royal Castle in the Chairman and Co-Founder of the Warsaw, Poland. p. 32 Trimarium Geostrategic Institute and he is member of the Hungarian Atlantic Mateusz Kubiak Mateusz Kubiak is a graduate of Eastern Council. p. 107 Studies and International Relations at the Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse University of Warsaw. He works as an Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse is a sociologist, energy sector analyst in the consulting political scientist, and historian. He is company Esperis. He runs a blog titled a professor at the University of Warsaw ‘Kaukaz Kaukaz’, dedicated to events from and Head of the Department of European the region. p. 45 Union Policies at the Institute of European Studies. He specializes in the Daniel Pogorzelski analysis of economic policies in the EU Daniel Pogorzelski is a writer and editor and the member states and is an expert for the blog ‘Forgotten Chicago’, as well as in public management, geo-economics, Vice President of the Northwest Chicago Europeanisation, EU theoretical Historical Society. As co-author of four thoughts. history books from the Images of America p. 68 series on the Chicago neighborhoods of

3/2019 121 Author Biographies

Portage Park, Bridgeport, Logan Square, German Cooperation Foundation. as well as Avondale and Chicago’s Polish From the second half of the 1990s, he Village. A native resident of Chicago’s has undertaken journalistic activity, Northwest Side, Daniel has been civically mainly in Życie, Wprost, Rzeczpospolita involved in a number of community and Nowa Konfederacja. Moreover, he initiatives improving overlooked parts has also published, inter alia, in Gazeta of Chicago, such as helping to organize Wyborcza, Gazeta Polska, Nasz Dziennik, and paint outdoor murals, serving on W sieci, Frankfurter Allgemeine the Junior Board of the Polish American Zeitung, Die Welt, Handelsblatt, and The Association, as well as volunteering w/ Sarmatian Review. p. 11 the Polish Triangle Coalition. p. 27 Martin Svárovský Andrzej Przyłębski Martin Svárovský is the Head of the Ambassador Extraordinary and Security Strategies Program and Senior Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Fellow at the European Values Think- Poland to the Federal Republic of Tank. Previous, he served 19 years at Germany, H.E. Prof. Andrzej Przyłębski the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is a founding member of Lech Kaczyński including as the Deputy Director of Civic Academic Club (AKO) and Foreign the Central European Department, Policy section Coordinator of the the Deputy Director of the Policy National Development Council to the Planning Staff, as well as the Deputy President of the Republic of Poland. A Chief of Mission of the Czech Embassies committee member of the Philosophy to Budapest and to Warsaw. Martin Sciences at the Polish Academy of Svárovský is also Vice-Chairman of the Science (PAN), he is also a Board of Commission on Foreign and European Directors member of the International Affairs of the Christian and Democratic Hegel Society and Editorial Board of Union – Czechoslovak People’s Party „Allgemeine Zeitschrift für Philosophie” (KDU-ČSL), and Advisor to the and “Phenomenology”. Chairman of Committee on European p. 6 Affairs of the Parliament of the Czech Robert Rajczyk Republic p. 95 Dr. Robert Rajczyk’s research interests concentrate on issues pertaining to the Alexander Wielgos political systems of the countries in Alexander Wielgos is the Advisor at Central and Eastern Europe as well as WIR. A Polish-Australian binational, propaganda and mass communication in his expertise covers MENA geopolitical the world. dynamics as well as peace processes. His p. 59 previous experience includes internships Krzysztof Rak at the United Nations and Embassies, Krzysztof Rak – diplomacy historian, and is a Master’s graduate of Lancaster philosophy historian, translator, University, UK. p. 85 publicist, and expert in the field of international relations, and holds a PhD. in History (Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw). He is currently Managing Director of the Polish-

122 The Warsaw Institute Review 3/2019 123 qr. 3. 2019 no. 10 ISSN 2543-9839

THE WARSAW INSTITUTE REVIEW no. 10. 2019 www.warsawinstitute.review