Futures Drivers and Scenarios for the Next Decade

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Research Drivers and scenarios futures for the next decade Summary report Download the full report from www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier- research-futures-report

A study by Elsevier and Ipsos MORI Published February 2019 CONTENTS

Contents

Foreword - Alexander van Boetzelaer, EVP of Strategy, Elsevier 4

Introduction to the study 5

Visual overview of the study 6

Introducing the scenarios 8

SCENARIO ONE: Brave open world 10

SCENARIO TWO: Tech titans 16

SCENARIO THREE: Eastern ascendance 22

Conclusion – what we learned and Elsevier’s plans 28

Acknowledgements 31

2 3 FOREWORD INTRODUCTION

Foreword Introduction

Why we did this project The interviews and literature review sketched a picture of the many interrelated trends; Rarely in the history of science, technology and taken together with the researcher survey, they medicine have we witnessed such rapid and helped us identify the factors most likely to profound change. Advances in technology, drive change, a summarized version of which funding pressures, political uncertainty, can be found in the visual overview on pages It’s not enough to think population shifts, societal challenges on a 6 to 7. We took these 19 key drivers, grouped global scale; these elements are all combining about the future – you them into themes, and turned them into the – in uncertain ways – to transform how research six essays you’ll find in the full version of this information is created and exchanged. have to build it report (available to download from Elsevier. The ability of the research community to com). The essays explain why each driver could thrive in this new world will depend on potentially cause seismic change and how that understanding the opportunities and the change might come to pass. At Elsevier, we have constantly pushed boundaries in our efforts to support researchers. From challenges these changes offer and what steps helping exiled German scientists in the late ‘30s to publish their works, to pioneering the digital However, looking at each of the key drivers need to be taken now. dissemination of journals on ScienceDirect; we’ve never been afraid to take bold steps. in isolation, or even linking them to a theme, To assess how today’s trends might shape wasn’t enough to provide the insights we were We are currently on the cusp of a new era, one that will likely transform the research information the research landscape in the decade ahead, seeking. So, during 2018, we held several system. Elsevier joined forces with Ipsos MORI, the creative workshops and invited external Drawing on our roots in publishing, we are creating analytical solutions to serve the needs of global market and opinion research specialist. experts to join us. In the workshops we used science and health. Whatever the future holds, by applying technological and data expertise, we Together, we conducted a large-scale, future- the key drivers to develop plausible future will continue with our mission to help institutions and professionals advance scientific knowledge scoping and scenario-planning study. The scenarios, all set a decade from now, which and health care. focus of this study was not which topics will we ultimately reduced to three – you can find be researched 10 years from now, but rather these on pages 10 to 27. We also recognize that it has never been more important to collaborate closely with research how that research might be conducted and its Along with the 19 key drivers and the six institutes, funders and other information providers, enabling a quicker response to genuine needs findings communicated. faced by those in the field. essays (which appear in the full report only), the three scenarios form the key findings of To equip us all with the knowledge required to navigate the opportunities – and challenges – that What we did this study. lie ahead, we have partnered with Ipsos MORI to examine the research landscape in detail, both We reviewed the literature and examined what is happening and what could happen in the decade to come. In this report, we share with you In the conclusion, on pages 28 to 30, we look market drivers. Critically, we interviewed the insights we’ve gleaned from a great variety of stakeholders. at the implications of these scenarios and expert stakeholders to gather their views and the plans that Elsevier is putting in place in Focusing on a single potential outcome is problematic. Instead, we’ve thought about a number elicited the opinions of researchers. Over the response to this study. We also invite you to join of possible, plausible futures. Our goal is that these scenarios will fuel considered, controlled course of 2018, we talked with 56 experts us. And we have created a webpage on Elsevier. decisions. Our founding motto remains apt: Non Solus – Not Alone. By working together today, from funders and futurists to publishers and com1 where we will continue to monitor the we can shape a more positive tomorrow. Please do contact us with your thoughts and ideas – you technology experts, and we surveyed more market-available data and track progress can find out how in the conclusion. We look forward to hearing from you soon. than 2,000 researchers. towards the scenarios we’ve imagined. While no-one knows what the future holds, our hope Alexander van Boetzelaer We started all our expert interviews with the is that this report, particularly the scenarios, EVP of Strategy, Elsevier same question – if you could discover one thing about the world of research 10 years will help us all understand the implications of from now, what would you want to know? This the decisions we make today and ensure we helped participants to focus on the questions are well placed to meet the future – whatever and challenges already keeping them up at it brings. night, and identify issues likely to increase in importance over the coming decade.

1 www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier-research-futures-report

4 5 VISUAL OVERVIEW VISUAL OVERVIEW

Building a guide to the future Together, the drivers, essays and scenarios form the key findings of this study. (Essays are included in the full version of the report.) A visual overview of the study

DISCOVERY PHASE ANALYSIS PHASE SCENARIO BUILDING PHASE

Step 4 Step 1 19 key drivers were identified, each of which THEME FOUR: Technology: revolution LITERATURE REVIEW is expected to shape developments in the or evolution? WORKSHOPS decade to come. These drivers (abbreviated 10. Big data is fast becoming the lifeblood Comprehensive review of the versions of which are listed below), have of nearly all research Three one-day workshops were published literature. been grouped into six themes. 11. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine- held with internal and external u Visit Mendeley2 to explore the learning tools are changing the shape experts. Attendees considered how references used in this report u Find the comprehensive versions of the drivers of science the 19 key drivers might influence and their associated essays in the full version of 12. Blockchain has the potential to facilitate research. the report. open science, but the technology is The result: Three credible scenarios, still in its infancy and may not fulfil each imagining what the future THEME ONE: Funding the future its promise might look like a decade from now. 1. The funding mix is changing; public 13. Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality funders will have less influence over (VR) will become key learning tools for a research priorities number of institutes 2. China is stepping up the funding and Step 2 production of research EXPERT INTERVIEWS 3. The research agenda is changing; THEME FIVE: Building the future Scenario one: there is an increased focus on making research information system Brave open world Interviews with 56 technology, research accessible 14. The role of the journal is transforming to State and philanthropic funders align in their research and publishing experts meet modern needs goals, approaches and principles, resulting around the globe. 15. The article structure is evolving and new in open science taking off, aided by artificial u See who we interviewed in the THEME TWO: Pathways to open science forms will become the norm intelligence-enabled technologies. Acknowledgements on page 31 4. Research grants will increasingly have 16. The measurement system will become open science conditions attached even more critical 5. Researchers are expected to spearhead adoption of open science, but not without Scenario two: experiencing conflicts of interests Tech titans THEME SIX: The academy and beyond 6. Metrics will continue to expand, enabled Technology companies support the research 17. Courses will diversify from a lecture- by new technology ecosystem and become knowledge creators focused model and curators in a world where industry funds 18. Higher education institutions are more and more research. changing structure THEME THREE: How researchers work: Step 3 19. EdTech will become a serious higher change ahead education contender RESEARCHER SURVEY 7. New technologies are expected to Scenario three: transform the researcher workflow over the Eastern ascendance A survey of 2,055 researchers coming 10 years China’s growing economic power and worldwide, asking them what they 8. Behaviors and skillsets will change as a focus on research and development (R&D) think the future holds. new generation of researchers arrives on influences the previously Western-dominated u the scene The full survey results are research landscape, resulting in a fragmented 3 available on Mendeley Data 9. Collaboration will drive research forward world.

1 www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier-research-futures-report u Read more about the methodology in the full version of this 2 www.mendeley.com/community/research-futures report, which is available to download from Elsevier.com1 3 https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/w6mj4tmkxp/1

6 7 VISUALIZING THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS VISUALIZING THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS

Visualizing the future through scenarios

Together, Elsevier and Ipsos MORI used the trends, survey results and expert input to develop three scenarios which explore what the research ecosystem might look like a decade from now: These scenarios are Brave open world, Tech titans and Eastern ascendance.

There are a few important points to bear in mind as you read them: • Scenarios are plausible futures, i.e. they have the potential to unfold but they are not definitive predictions.

• No single scenario has to be “correct”; aspects of just one could come true or they might combine in any variety of ways.

• They are built on current trends, or drivers, derived from literature, expert opinion and survey work.

• They were created in workshop settings, during which choices were made about the weight assigned to the individual drivers in each scenario.

• Each of the scenarios is comprised of four key elements: - Brief summary - Detailed description - An imagined personal story, designed to bring the scenario to life - Signposts that could help us understand whether this future is emerging

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1 0

BRAVE OPEN0 WORLD BRAVE OPEN WORLD

0 0 1 10011 0Scenario one: 0001010 Brave open world

Globally, state funders and philanthropic organizations have joined forces and 0 0 1 0 00 0 1 0 0 pushed through the creation of platforms where the research they fund must be 0 0 10 01 1 1 10 0 1 0 10 00 1 0 11 0published open access (OA). But the form of that OA varies by region; Europe is 1 0

0 01 1 1 10 0 1

0 0 00 1 0 0 mostly gold, while North America and Asia Pacific is generally green. 1

0 0 0 1 1

0 1 1 1 0 1 1

0 0 1 1 0 1 10

0 0 0 1 11 1 0 0 0

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1 1 1 Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and technology mean these 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 01 0 0 platforms are flourishing – they are interoperable, and content is easy to access 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 and showcase.1 1 010 0 01 1 0 11 1 001110010 01 0As a result, there are0 fewer subscription-based journals. A number of broad 0101 00 0 01 1 1 0 0 001 0 0 science,1 gold OA megajournals with low article publishing charges exist 1 01 0 010001110101 0 0 10 1 01 0 to publish 0content not captured by open platforms. Major society journals 0 00 0 0 1 1 0 1 11 remain active, many0 operating a gold OA model, but struggle for manuscript 0 00000 0 1 00 1 01 1 10010 1 0 0 submissions, so revenue0 is low. Preprints thrive in this world and are linked to 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 the final article versions, which are still recognized as the authoritative version. 1 0 0 011101010 1 0 0100 0 0 1 1 Researchers benefit from access1 to data in a variety of ways, for example, via 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 bite-sized publications and dynamic0 notebook-style articles. 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 The advances in AI and technology have also provided new methods of 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 generating and communicating results. While research quality is still an 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 important measure of performance, journal publication plays a diminishing role 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 in determining a researcher’s career progress. Increasingly, research is assessed 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 against agreed societal impact standards. 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

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0 0 BRAVE OPEN WORLD BRAVE OPEN WORLD

Overall, global research and development emerging research nations in Asia following must be accompanied by a public engagement of their work to communicate research (R&D) investment is holding stable. There in their footsteps. Researchers demonstrating plan and researchers are mandated to outcomes. As a result, new research metrics have been regional shifts – intensity (R&D interdisciplinary skills are the most successful. communicate their research findings – and supplement the existing indicators, which investment as a proportion of gross domestic Collaboration via social platforms is common their benefits to society – in an easy-to- typically measure citation activity. product (GDP)) has reduced slightly in North and post-publication evaluation and comment understand way. This has helped to increase Revolutionary developments in artificial America. And although increases in R&D is the norm. public trust in science, supported by increased intelligence (AI) mean hypotheses can now be intensity in China have plateaued, overall R&D access to raw elements of research (e.g. raw Funders are driving interdisciplinary, cross- data-driven – although take-up varies across investment continues to rise, as China’s GDP environmental and ecological monitoring institution, global collaborations and reward the sciences – and the speed and volume of grows steadily. data). the sharing of data as it enables research to be research has accelerated. AI also supports Funders in China, the West and the developing more open. To support this, high-technology The interoperable open repositories include peer review by checking manuscripts are nations have come together to establish content management, collaboration and both preprints and peer-reviewed manuscript logical, consistent and comply with editorial shared goals for both basic research and some dissemination products are vital. Tech versions. Open access (OA) publication in standards. Easy-interface, off-the-shelf major applied challenges (for example, climate companies are partnering with information journals is the norm: a number offer green products have made coding relatively simple. change, energy and food), which are now the solution providers, major research institutions OA; however, adoption is uneven across Researchers are broadly comfortable with key focuses of national funding agencies and and state funders to provide them. These geographies and disciplines. With pressure accessing large data sets and interrogating philanthropic organizations. Funding for solutions tend to be globally interoperable to release information as widely, and as close them (using programming skills) and working exploratory blue-sky research has reduced; the and can be personalized to meet most to real time as possible, green OA embargo alongside data scientists; however, there are emphasis is on rapid development of practical needs. Importantly, they promote accuracy periods are approaching – and in numerous still skills gaps. solutions. in data, contributing to improvements in cases have reached – zero months. Many On the education front, universities have reproducibility, which are further aided by journals have transitioned to gold, others Funders have also collaborated to create resisted pressure to commercialize, but have the availability of data sets in large-scale data have folded; consequently, there has been a guiding principles for open science and diversified; they now offer more online courses repositories. Funders and publishers have resurgence in authors choosing to publish scholarly publication, as well as metrics of and lifelong learning. More cross-disciplinary also partnered to create a global web of open in gold OA, broad-discipline megajournals assessment (such as societal impact, data degrees are available and modules on data citations – most article references are now after a lull in the early part of the decade. dissemination, peer review and the success of science and writing for the public are common. freely available. However, the appetite for OA involving article collaborative processes). Although competition between universities publishing charges (APCs) is not universal, The research article is still valued as a channel remains, there is more collaboration (e.g. on Thanks to this joined-up approach, global and primarily due to funding priority challenges, for communicating the stories behind shared research priorities). interdisciplinary collaboration has increased, and this has helped to force down the cost of discoveries, but has become atomized with aided by virtual reality and augmented reality APCs. Prestigious journals play a role, but their the growth in popularity of electronic lab tools. Researchers are now rewarded more influence has waned. Across a range of subject notebooks and other tools that facilitate for collaboration and the usefulness of their areas, researchers increasingly post preprints fragmentation of the research and publication research, and less for novelty or being first to process. This means the article has evolved publish. The EU has focused on strengthening into a notebook-style paper containing (as its internal approach to research and initiatives applicable) experimental methods, data and like the European Open Science Cloud, an observations, source code, and claims and environment for hosting and processing insights. research data to support EU science, have gained good traction. This has prompted There are funder requirements around China to adopt a similar approach, with other engaging with the public; each grant proposal

12 13 BRAVE OPEN WORLD BRAVE OPEN WORLD

A glimpse into the life of a researcher in 2029 Signposts To help us build a clearer picture of this world, an update on that shortly. So, can you tell me we have imagined a discussion between Dr. a little more about the team’s day-to-day tasks? Events that might indicate this world is emerging. Gretel Hoffman, a team leader at Hanselberg Dr. Hoffman: We are focused on publishing University in Germany, and Danielle Myers, our latest findings right now, so are busy a user interface designer for Kwiksol, which writing code, software and methodology 2019 has an EU contract to develop open source papers and we have a lot of data to prep. collaboration tools for researchers. As a condition of our funding, we have to One third of research articles Danielle: Good morning Dr. Hoffman. Thanks publish everything pretty much straight away are published gold open for finding time to speak with me today. on our funders’ open platform. It takes time access in Europe, following to prepare content for open publication – I Three quarters of research articles mandates from a consortium Dr. Hoffman: Hi Danielle, no problem. of European funders. currently spend most of my day agreeing are published green open access in the US, China and India, Danielle: I have been commissioned by the naming conventions or standardizing data. following mandates from funding EU to understand a little more about your That’s where we really need some help. consortia in those countries. working day so that we can identify any possible State and philanthropic Danielle: So, what I’m hearing is that your pain synergies with the open source solutions under organizations unite to points are clustered around communication develop programs and fund development by Kwiksol. Perhaps you could within the team and pre-publication prep work? research to contain a flu start by telling me about your current project? pandemic. Dr. Hoffman: That’s right, but any tool Dr. Hoffman: Well, I’m working on a Various repositories would need to cater for the data taxonomies pancreatic cancer vaccine program that is consolidate into one platform, particular to our field. improving access to the Tech companies, in partnership really international. Funders have pooled expanding volume of articles, with universities and funders, resources so I’m working with colleagues in Danielle: Yes, we’ve already been looking data, code, methods and release new online workflow Portugal, the US, China, Chile and Denmark. at field-specific taxonomies as part of our preprints. tools, enabling easy formatting and sharing of data. In fact, there are 15 universities involved now, discovery phase, but if you could share a list and then we’ve got a couple of companies – a with me, I’ll double check we’ve captured technology firm in India, and we are talking them all. Organizations that have with a pharmaceutical company here in Research is only published if it’s linked to invested heavily in data analytics Dr. Hoffman: Another funding requirement Germany. the raw data (which must meet and artificial intelligence is that we explain our findings in a way that international requirements) and the maximize the value of that data Danielle: So, that’s quite a few locations to makes them accessible to everyone. Writing associated code, where applicable. through discovery and reuse to make unseen connections. juggle. Are you getting the kind of support for a non-scientific audience isn’t easy and you need from the meeting and collaboration soaks up a lot of my time. tools you use now? 2029 Danielle: So, you need a tool that will help you Dr. Hoffman: Generally, they work fine. We convert your findings into a digestible format. can easily share feedback and content online. I have some natural language processing And, when it comes to experiments, we’ve colleagues that are exploring this – I’ll flag been trialling a couple of virtual reality tools. your issue with them. Thank you for your I should mention, the team is not only diverse time today, your feedback will be critical to in terms of geography, the disciplines and the development of our tools. And we’d really skills vary too, from bench science to coding. like you to join our user group testing teams, Sharing the information within the team when the time comes? in a way that everyone can understand is a Dr. Hoffman: Absolutely. Anything that will challenge for us. help! Thanks, Danielle. Danielle: We hear that a lot and I know it’s one of the items on our 2029 roadmap. We should have

14 15 TECH TITANS TECH TITANS

Scenario two: Tech titans

Industry and philanthropic foundations are the principal research funders, with far-reaching consequences for the research community. Some are feeling this impact more than others, for example, academic institutions with a focus on life sciences struggle. There have been significant advances in machine learning with sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) products driving innovation. This has led to large technology and data analytics companies becoming the curators and distributors of knowledge.

Research articles and journals play a much reduced role, with preprint servers and analytical layers over online content replacing some of their traditional functions. The article has become atomized with each part of a research publication created and hosted separately, but all elements are linked. Large technology companies have created a market shift toward AI-driven evaluation of these research outputs; however, current systems have proved susceptible to manipulation and there is pressure to increase their security.

Not all aspects of research are open; for example, where industry is funding research, key research data is not always made available so companies can retain a competitive and financial advantage.

For researchers, the developments in technology and consolidation of analytical services have revolutionized the way research is performed, enabling many to work independently of institutes and even funders – “science-as-a-service” is emerging as barriers to entry are reduced or removed.

16 17 TECH TITANS TECH TITANS

A number of countries are leveraging in these areas. There have been breakthroughs, hosted in repositories. The repositories allow Public trust in research has eroded slightly over sophisticated and successful machine- particularly in personalized medicine, resulting data owners (including funders, content concerns about AI’s level of involvement, the learning products in their research programs in more of these challenge-driven funding aggregators, authors and platform providers) way commercial companies work with data, to address their own priorities and challenges. calls. Commercial targets drive much of the to benefit financially, not only in terms of potential privacy breaches, and the uneven However, some sectors and states are industry-funded research and, consequently, payments received, but by maximizing their dissemination of new medical advances. At the struggling to adapt. Developments in artificial some researchers feel there is reduced potential commercial application. Some data will never same time, the delivery of AI-fuelled advances, intelligence (AI) are rapidly transferred to for more exploratory or blue-sky research and be shared, frustrating researchers who are especially in the health sciences, are hailed in industry, e.g. automotive, aerospace and are publicly calling for change. aware of its existence but are unable to access the popular press. medical technology, resulting in advances, but it. The most widely-used researcher workflow Organizations that have heavily invested Funders and universities are increasingly at the cost of jobs. A significant proportion tools are provided by tech companies. These in knowledge organization schemes (e.g. taking note of new ways to evaluate success of research is also carried out by machines, are interoperable and apply data analytics taxonomies and ontologies) and large-scale and there is debate about whether quality funded by tech company investments. In to create connections unseen by the human analytics are driving change that has enabled should still be the primary measure; as well some research areas, roles, and even teams, eye, which has led to some significant the emergence of “science-as-a-service”. as how quality can be judged beyond proxies, have been replaced by automated processes. breakthroughs and potential innovation This gives researchers the opportunity to such as citation metrics. In some contexts, opportunities. AI has enabled the volume of Over the past decade, in the European Union reinvent the relationship between themselves quality is measured through “output” or research to increase at a steady rate, despite (EU), factors such as migration pressure and and academic institutions; they can now, researcher-level metrics; in others, through reduced public research funding. political differences have increased tensions at very low cost, source the materials they commercial outcomes. There is no consensus. between member states. The US is starting need to work independently. Pharmaceutical Publishers have partnered with big technology With universities increasingly focused on to recover from a period of reduced research companies are the greatest funders of life companies to create an AI-based “peer review” commercial applications, graduates are and development (R&D) funding (both in real sciences research and benefit most from evaluation process, powered by natural following suit and selecting courses that terms and relative to its pledges and forecasts). the data gleaned and the relationships they language processing (NLP), which validates lead to career opportunities in industry. China’s investment in R&D has steadied are forming with researchers. But with research outputs without human involvement. Vacancies at industry-sponsored institutions and it is yet to commercialize or scale up its competition high between companies, seldom Some researchers question how far AI can be are particularly sought after. At the same time, innovation. It focuses strongly on applied do we see research findings shared freely. trusted to create new research and review EdTech has changed the way that education research, but its research quality indicators are human-generated outputs. As a result, they In this world, most of the research publications is delivered, with improved quality of online still lower than those of the US and Europe. insist on sense-checking assumptions made are open and are increasingly atomized; courses and high adoption of distance and by AI systems; an added time pressure for Industry and international foundations are research is frequently reported as discrete flexible learning. research teams. increasing their financial contributions; in units throughout the process, for example, response, some nations are reducing public methods, data, code, and preliminary text. research funding. For example, in a number of Online repositories built on preprint servers countries, industry has replaced government as host these outputs and are curated by the the main source of R&D funding for universities, technology companies that set them up. The and companies are now sponsoring research popularity of these servers has led to a fall in and higher education institutions. manuscript submissions to journals, leading to the closure of some titles and the failure of There are few global shared solutions to some publishers. international grand challenges, e.g. climate change, energy and food security, but both Researchers, institutes and corporations international philanthropists and industry regularly use micropayment systems to have funded significant “moonshot” projects pay for access to research data and code

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A glimpse into the life of a researcher in 2029 Signposts How will researchers fare in this radical new Of course, just as with any job, there are world? We’ve imagined a virtual presence downsides. You and I are used to openly sharing Events that might indicate this world is emerging. message from Professor José Oliveira from his our findings. That isn’t always the case here. base at a new industry-sponsored university in I mean, one of the reasons they are pumping Salvador, Brazil, to a former colleague in São money into research is because they hope to make 2019 Paulo who is thinking of joining him. a big return on it at some stage, so there’s a lot of pressure. But, on the other hand, it does mean I Hey Victor, how are you? It’s been a while. I benefit from the financial and technical resources Following Brexit, there is got your message this morning and thought I’d “ disruption in the EU leading to available. Do you remember that idea I had for a Self-driving cars meet surprise you by delivering my answer in person! a recession and a reduction in sensor identifying micro-fissures? I submitted a highway safety criteria in public R&D spend. Federal I hope this is reaching you OK; I haven’t tried to the US and the roll-out proposal last week and I expect to hear next week. commitment to R&D drops in use this service with your campus before. begins. Who knows? Maybe we’ll even end up working on the US as a consequence of it together. funding moving to other To be honest, I wasn’t surprised to hear that you economic priorities. are thinking of leaving your current role – you By the way, on Monday I read my first fully know how frustrated I was when I was in the An advanced air traffic control AI-generated article that was also AI peer- system based on a study, which aerospace department. There was so little funding, reviewed. I was a little skeptical, but to be honest, was peer-reviewed using AI, is the decision-making process was so slow and it I wouldn’t have known if it didn’t say it on the implicated in aircraft crashes was only a matter of time before they started during its test phase; human Systemic banking conglomerate paper. There are still a few areas that concern me reviewers confirm the original fraud is discovered. New global downsizing – in fact, I heard from Fernanda that though…. You know, the stories we’ve heard about study was flawed. Public trust in data protection regulations are the redundancies have started? manipulation in the news, and I doubt AI would science plummets. enforced, powered by advances in blockchain technology; these The department here is growing; there’s a real ever come up with a really novel breakthrough advances are immediately buzz about the place and people are excited to like my micro-fissures idea! I also worry that Thousands of researchers sign a adopted for research data petition demanding that large management, particularly data come to work. OK, the scope of the research AI-powered peer review is not discerning enough corporations make all research reuse. to reject flawed papers. In fact, I was talking with projects is a little more limited, but at least they data available at all stages in the are well-funded. And I’m still involved in Next a colleague about it in the canteen yesterday. He research workflow. thinks that there are alerts built into the system As a result of AI-enabled research GenAvionics, the international project I was in personalized medicine, working on. In fact, I can contribute more here and regular audits to stop that happening, but Major tech players become a survival rates for pancreatic than I could back in São Paulo – it’s unbelievable I’m not so sure. significant source of published cancer increase substantially. research, often via their own Positive press coverage aids the the tools we’ve got access to. If I need to meet Anyway, I hope I’ve given you some idea what research institutes. recovery of public trust in with aeronautics colleagues in Japan at the start it’s like to work here. Once you get your interview science. of their day, I can be onsite to run a diagnostic – date through, let me know. Sorry to rush off but virtually, of course – within seconds of logging on. I’ve got a coding class in five minutes – all that 2029 And the stress testing technology we’ve developed advanced data analytics and coding training I did here is so advanced. Don’t even get me started on back in Salvador is finally paying off. Although, at how easy it is to run a lab class. Have I sold it to the rate things are developing here, it will probably you yet? You’d love it here! be taken care of by a virtual lecturer soon! Give my regards to your family and speak soon.”

20 21 EASTERN ASCENDANCE EASTERN ASCENDANCE

Scenario three: Eastern ascendance

China’s desire to transform into a knowledge-based economy has led to heavy public investment in research and development (R&D) and the systems and processes to capitalize on this in industrial and economic terms. As a result, China’s level of R&D funding is proportionally much higher than the West’s and continues to grow, changing the shape of scientific research. The sheer volume of investment by China, and other research nations in the region, has made the East a magnet for international researchers.

A lack of global alignment on grand challenges has resulted in inefficiencies in the international research system. Open science practices have been adopted in some countries and regions, but not all. Journal publishing is a mixed model of open access (OA) – gold and green – and subscription publishing. Individual research outputs can be accessed separately, but are always linked to the final article; for example, research findings, data and code.

Governments, industry and other research funders compete for scientific advantage through the controlled distribution and trading of data. When data is believed to hold no further commercial value, it is released so it can be linked back to its related research outputs.

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In this world, alignment on tackling global Europe after gaining a limited foothold. lower-tier universities, unable to keep up with Public engagement with science is mixed. societal problems proves difficult. Nations these developments, struggle financially. A People want scientific solutions to global Despite the availability of a number of tend to tackle them in isolation, resulting in number seek protection through partnerships health and environmental problems, but research quality measures, journal-level inefficiencies and a duplication of effort. with other, larger institutes. Together they geopolitical agendas are in conflict: the US metrics, including the Journal Impact Factor create big brands and international franchises has taken a strong position on environmental Due to China’s investment in research and and its successors, are still widely used by to maximize global appeal. issues, seeing any restraints as blocking development (R&D), the country is now firmly funders and universities. This is partly due to industrial growth, while China is developing established as the global powerhouse of support from China, where the Journal Impact In the East, the most popular degrees combine new technologies to reduce air and water research. The quality and citation impact of Factor remains embedded in the assessment physical science and engineering with pollution. Globally, developments such as Chinese research output has surpassed the procedures of Chinese institutes. management and business qualifications. The personalized medicine or self-driving cars rest of the world. Beijing and other major demand for work-ready graduates is so high Although technology drives progress, it does aren’t universally available; distribution is Chinese cities are proving hugely attractive to globally that students are willing to pay more not lead to revolution in this world. Technology uneven with some sectors of the public Western researchers. for education, as the certainty of a job when companies partner with publishers to provide a benefiting from scientific and technological their course is complete is much higher. Individual nations are under pressure to retain range of products and services to the research advances more than others. the results of their science and technology community. New, virtual reality workflow tools investments for themselves, which causes enable collaboration over distance. Blockchain rifts between internationally-collaborating technologies have advanced and are used to institutes. Prestigious institutes in the US check for plagiarism in research publications respond by reducing the number of projects and, in some tech-savvy fields, are now used they do in partnership with European to track and assign credit for research outputs. institutes that have strong relationships China, concerned that it is not producing with China. Meanwhile, China acquires an an elite group of creative researchers, has established publisher and encourages China- opened several new institutes that mirror based researchers to submit their work to the innovation seen at the likes of University its journals. of Oxford and Massachusetts Institute of While science is carried out according to open Technology (MIT). These new institutes, along science principles, this is proving truer in with many existing Chinese universities, some countries than others. Instead, research are attracting Western researchers and funders and governments jostle for advantage are becoming acknowledged as centers of by imposing strict controls on the distribution creativity. In a parallel strategy, the Chinese of data emerging from the research they’ve government remains focused on educating funded – it tends to be shared only once its a highly-skilled workforce and believes the commercial value has been extracted. In this teachings of the elite universities will trickle hyper-competitive world, open science cannot down to others. deliver completely on its promise. The rising proportion of students from Thanks to the misalignment of international emerging economies in the East has prompted funder policies, open access (OA) publishing global education changes. Universities deliver has not enjoyed widespread uptake. As a result, courses with a much stronger focus on virtual green is the most common form of OA, with interaction and online adaptive learning free access to research articles published in materials. To fund this EdTech, elite higher subscription-based journals after 6-12-month education institutes in both the West and East embargoes. Gold OA has been unsuccessful increase student fees or, in some instances, in the US and China, and has plateaued in introduce them for the first time. Some mid- to

24 25 EASTERN ASCENDANCE EASTERN ASCENDANCE

A glimpse into the life of a researcher in 2029 Signposts To bring this scenario to life, we have imagined Jackie: Yep, I can imagine the thought of an interview on the student radio station at a novel research must be pretty tempting. You Events that might indicate this world is emerging. highly-regarded US university. It’s between mentioned salaries… how do they compare? Jackie, a journalist who’s presenting a “where Marie: Well, I’ve been offered a five-year are they now?” series on Summa Cum Laude contract and, while I can’t go into specifics, the graduates, and Marie, who recently graduated salary relative to the local cost of living is very 2019 with the Latin Honor. good, and it’s about two times higher than Jackie: So, Marie, tell our listeners a bit about what I earn here. There certainly seems to be China continues to invest yourself. plenty of money for research in China. more in R&D. The East/West funding gap widens as the Marie: Hi everyone. I’m from Utah and I Jackie: So far, it sounds like a good opportunity As economic powers start to consequence of a recession finished my PhD in material sciences here – what’s holding you back then? shift, Europe and the US that predominantly affects become more protective of their in Boston three years ago. Since then, I’ve Europe and the US. Marie: I’ve heard that the government requires resources and the commercial been working at various institute labs and I’m applications of their research. results to be published in an approved list of currently thinking hard about my next move. East/West partnerships between journals and I’m not sure how I feel about that. institutes reduce in number. I’m still not 100 percent sure, but it is quite Following a surge in Plus, I won’t be able to share the research data student numbers from likely that I am heading to China. we generate with US colleagues – even though emerging countries in Asia, universities introduce Jackie: Wow, that would be a big move! it would benefit them. adaptive distance learning. Several long-established Marie: I know… but this year has been a Jackie: If it were me, I’d also have a few universities struggle to respond real mix of ups and downs. I’ve had a paper concerns about the language barrier. And to the recession; others partner published in a great journal in my field, but I’ve aren’t you worried you might feel isolated? with larger, prestigious higher The flow of research talent from West to East increases; also been struggling to find another research education institutions to secure Marie: If I do decide to go, I will try to learn some their future. More practical fewer high-performing project to join – there’s hardly anything in the courses emerge with fewer researchers apply to Western Chinese, but most academics speak English, US. What posts I have found offer short-term universities offering academic academic posts. the Chinese researchers too. And I don’t expect contracts and I want to move up the ladder. subjects. isolation to be a problem – while there are a The employment situation won’t change while few social media tools the authorities block, Chinese institutes start to funding is so tight. dominate the top positions in there are still lots of conferences and other the global university ranking Jackie: So, why China? networking opportunities. There is even an lists. China sends a crewed mission ex-pat baseball league. to Mars, having developed fuel Marie: It just offers more opportunity. I can’t cell technology for believe how many jobs there are, or how well Jackie: Marie, you graduated Summa Cum interplanetary travel. European paid they are! My old tutor moved to Beijing Laude; you were in the top five percent of your and US efforts lag far behind. 2029 two years ago, and he’s been trying to persuade year. You are exactly the type of person the US me to join his research team. What’s really would like to keep. So, my last question; what attractive is that they have technology that my would persuade you to stay? current lab can’t afford. Marie: Hmm, I guess it comes down to security. Jackie: If you go, what type of program will you I’m fed up moving from one contract to the be working on? next, so getting a tenured position would be fantastic. Funding is also a problem. It’s getting Marie: I expected Chinese institutes to focus more competitive each time I apply, which on the application of research, in other words, stems from a lack of investment at government commercialization, but that doesn’t seem to be level. More R&D money would create roles and the case, especially with this program. Many of opportunities. Currently, China invests twice as the research projects are really ground-breaking. much in R&D than the US – it would be good if it was at least the same!

26 27 CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

For example: • Digitally-savvy researchers want to work faster, carry out research with Conclusion – what we • Technology, especially AI and data big data at scale, and iterate their science, shapes data collection, the work by receiving swift feedback from amount of research produced, how it collaborators and colleagues globally. learned and Elsevier’s plans is reported and the speed of science. Information solution providers Funders require new forms of input and funders provide platforms for to shape the research agenda, and this to happen, and create ways create new metrics which measure in which quality can be measured impact and are tied to the rewards that considered the interplay between them and and monitored, incentivizing the What is the future of drive researchers. This gives license to this has informed our key findings – not only researchers of the future. research? Tipping the essays, but the three scenarios you read on researchers to explore the potential of pages 10 to 27. Importantly, these scenarios are the new technology more creatively. points and virtuous more than just summaries of the main trends, they are carefully-constructed, vivid stories, DESIRES cycles designed to transport us into the future. They are provocative and challenge today’s norms. Researchers want to be ahead of As this study has made clear, we have reached In each of them, it’s clear that “business as the curve by a tipping point. How research is conceived, usual” will no longer be possible for any of us working faster and more flexibly, completed and communicated will change working in the research ecosystem. increasing impact dramatically over the next 10 years. New and receiving better rewards funding models will emerge, new methods These scenarios don’t claim to be predictions

– how the future unfolds will depend on how N N of collaboration will develop, and new ways s e e rd s w w a p A s o w I d c the key drivers combine and the speed with o , i e l e e of conceptualizing research and measuring r d s n y k a i t w c c g i e t n f a n a i which they develop. But they do provide us c Results N b e / its impact will arise, driven by advances in s c d r c d o e a i a l p e l e t a f s with “foundations” that we can build on. n a b technology and the ideas of a new generation. n c o w c a e r e o r a

t l i t N l They demonstrate that, if positive change is d i e o While technology advances have the potential e e c r n

a t o i t o to be sustainable, action will need to occur in i o n to be disruptive, in general, we are likely M n to see faster, fairer, more open models of unison across all the areas we’ve examined, research practice and publication. Researchers from education to researcher workflow. They are expected to benefit from greater career underline that all of us who work in the world of flexibility, better feedback on their emerging research share responsibility for creating a new environment in which science and research can Outputs ideas and improved reproducibility. More New New research flourish; no-one can do it alone and we have metrics Change will be prompted by the 19 key trends, output New application to be prepared to embrace change. Finally, the formats Open More workflow (atomized science research tools or drivers, that we identified and used as scenarios identify the value of “virtuous cycles” article) the basis for the essays you’ll find in the full – wherever innovations support each other version of this report. A summary of these and are mutually beneficial, change will occur

i drivers is included in our visual overview of the p rapidly. With this in mind, we have developed a N d r

o e n

w d u y f study on pages 6 to 7. Many of these drivers u r N model (see following page) to show how some m t f e c s w i o e b u

c e d i l h were visible without extensive future-scoping n h e of these drivers could interact productively, and s c in c a r r u e a n e & n t e i s t s n s s or scenario planning; after all, a number i e n what their impact on the research landscape v m e e Results e a i r o i s s r c r t c i t f f e u r h t already play an active role in today’s academic o f t i might be. u r s t c E t i a s u m F in re p r and commercial life. But in this study we have s a fo c s t le ro w Ne Funders want to have demonstrable impact on society

DESIRES

28 29 CONCLUSION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Elsevier’s role in the We see ourselves in a supporting role, working virtuous cycles jointly with researchers, research institutions Acknowledgements and funders to develop this information Elsevier is committed to improving the system. It will have researchers at its heart “information system supporting research” and help them do their important work. – in other words, the many tools that The system must draw on many different researchers have at their disposal to execute sources, incorporating data and content from and communicate core research tasks. The universities, vendors, platforms and publishers Subject matter experts Elsevier and Ipsos MORI current information system has been around around the world. It must be interoperable Expert interviewees Project sponsor Ipsos MORI contributors for more than 100 years. As this research Kent Anderson, CEO, Redlink & Redlink Network, USA Alexander van Boetzelaer ensuring that researchers can use whichever Project design, interviewing, shows, researchers today are relying on Rick Anderson, Associate Dean for Collections and Scholarly Senior project director workshop facilitation and platform they prefer while maintaining a Communication, University of Utah, USA Adrian Mulligan analysis outdated tools, fragmented across a myriad seamless workflow experience. Jean-Gabriel Bankier, Manging Director, bepress, Project director Graham Bukowski of applications and resources. In fact, the Elsevier, USA Rachel Herbert Sarah Castell system often burdens researchers instead of We recognize the importance of trust in Jean-Claude Burgelman, Open Science unit head, European Project team Guillermo Fernandez Commission, Belgium supporting them. research communications, and although Andrew Plume Jayesh Shah Taylor Cohen, USA Stephane Berghmans Colin Strong research will likely become more fragmented, Thomas Crouzier, Assistant Professor, Royal Institute of Daniella Voermans Emily Wayne In the past, putting the researcher first meant Technology, KTH, Sweden trust will remain at the heart of any new Gert-Jaap Jong Rebecca Wilson primarily publishing high-quality journals and Lewis Dartnell, Astrobiology Research Scientist, University of research information system as it has been for Max Khan Westminster, UK books. While content will remain critically Theo Pillay Report authors the 140 years of Elsevier’s history. Anand Desai, Professor, John Glenn College of Public Affairs, important, that singular focus is no longer Ohio State University, USA Arnold Pippel Linda Willems, Blue Lime Communications sufficient. Today, we have an obligation Today, Elsevier is becoming a data-centric Fabio Figueiras, PostDoc Researcher, CICECO, Universidad de (lead writer and editor) Aveiro, Portugal Literature review to put the researcher at the center of the organization, which involves much more than Adrian Mulligan David Gavaghan, Professor of Computational Biology, Rachel Herbert (Lead) entire research information system. Doing technology; it is about embedding analytics University of Oxford, UK Daniella Voermans Rachel Herbert Geert-Jaap Jong so involves addressing many challenges, across every aspect of decision-making. We are Gregory J. Gordon, MD of SSRN at Elsevier, USA Andrew Plume Sarah Castell including enabling effective peer review, ready to play our part in making every aspect Frédérick Gosselin, Associate Professor, Department of Interviewers Emily Wayne matching collaborators seamlessly, facilitating of the research lifecycle more connected, more Mechanical Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal, Canada Jorgos Achtivassilis Kazuhiro Hayashi, Senior Research Fellow, NISTEP (National Hesham Attalla the securing of funding, and supporting the transparent and more inclusive and we invite Institution of Science and Technology Policy), Japan Report communications Rachel Herbert important task of demonstrating researchers’ the community to jointly produce solutions Yun He, Dean, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Chongqing Geert-Jaap Jong Sacha Boucherie University, China beneficial impact on society. We are working that both challenge and enhance the research Liliane Kuiper-Hoyng Stephane Berghmans Oscar Jarabo, Co-Founder, Innotholic, Spain/Netherlands to resolve these. information system. Daniella Voermans Jing Ping Liu, Founding Director, Centre of Evidenced-Based Report design Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Researcher survey Alan Chaston, Following extensive conversations with groups If you wish to partner with us to shape the China Gemma Deakin Linesman Design throughout the researcher community, we future or want to find out more about the Nicola Millard, Head of Customer Insight & Futures, BT, UK Rachel Herbert have identified four principles that will prove Research futures study, please contact us at Ronaldo Mota, Chancellor, Estácio Group, Brazil Alexandra Mitchell Thanks to various Elsevier , Director of External Relations, critical in addressing the information system [email protected] Katrina Nevin-Ridley Adrian Mulligan staff who provided valuable Communications and Public Engagement, UK Research and Andrew Plume 4 support on this project. supporting research : 4 www.elsevier.com/connect/a-vision-for-the- Innovation, UK information-system-supporting-research Josh Nicholson, Co-founder and CEO, scite.ai, USA Project administration • Source-neutrality Sarah Pritchard, Dean of Libraries, Northwestern University, Carol McNeil USA Isabel Garcia • Transparency Kerry Purcell, VP, IBM Japan, Japan • Interoperability Melissa Rethlefsen, Associate Dean, George A. Smathers Libraries, USA • The researcher must be in control Andrew Till, VP - Technology and Marketing, HARMAN Connected Services, USA Jane X. Wang, Senior Research Scientist, DeepMind, UK

In addition, we extend our thanks to other interviewees from academia and business who participated anonymously.

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