Research Drivers and scenarios futures for the next decade Summary report Download the full report from www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier- research-futures-report A study by Elsevier and Ipsos MORI Published February 2019 CONTENTS Contents Foreword - Alexander van Boetzelaer, EVP of Strategy, Elsevier 4 Introduction to the study 5 Visual overview of the study 6 Introducing the scenarios 8 SCENARIO ONE: Brave open world 10 SCENARIO TWO: Tech titans 16 SCENARIO THREE: Eastern ascendance 22 Conclusion – what we learned and Elsevier’s plans 28 Acknowledgements 31 2 3 FOREWORD INTRODUCTION Foreword Introduction Why we did this project The interviews and literature review sketched a picture of the many interrelated trends; Rarely in the history of science, technology and taken together with the researcher survey, they medicine have we witnessed such rapid and helped us identify the factors most likely to profound change. Advances in technology, drive change, a summarized version of which funding pressures, political uncertainty, can be found in the visual overview on pages It’s not enough to think population shifts, societal challenges on a 6 to 7. We took these 19 key drivers, grouped global scale; these elements are all combining about the future – you them into themes, and turned them into the – in uncertain ways – to transform how research six essays you’ll find in the full version of this information is created and exchanged. have to build it report (available to download from Elsevier. The ability of the research community to com). The essays explain why each driver could thrive in this new world will depend on potentially cause seismic change and how that understanding the opportunities and the change might come to pass. At Elsevier, we have constantly pushed boundaries in our efforts to support researchers. From challenges these changes offer and what steps helping exiled German scientists in the late ‘30s to publish their works, to pioneering the digital However, looking at each of the key drivers need to be taken now. dissemination of journals on ScienceDirect; we’ve never been afraid to take bold steps. in isolation, or even linking them to a theme, To assess how today’s trends might shape wasn’t enough to provide the insights we were We are currently on the cusp of a new era, one that will likely transform the research information the research landscape in the decade ahead, seeking. So, during 2018, we held several system. Elsevier joined forces with Ipsos MORI, the creative workshops and invited external Drawing on our roots in publishing, we are creating analytical solutions to serve the needs of global market and opinion research specialist. experts to join us. In the workshops we used science and health. Whatever the future holds, by applying technological and data expertise, we Together, we conducted a large-scale, future- the key drivers to develop plausible future will continue with our mission to help institutions and professionals advance scientific knowledge scoping and scenario-planning study. The scenarios, all set a decade from now, which and health care. focus of this study was not which topics will we ultimately reduced to three – you can find be researched 10 years from now, but rather these on pages 10 to 27. We also recognize that it has never been more important to collaborate closely with research how that research might be conducted and its Along with the 19 key drivers and the six institutes, funders and other information providers, enabling a quicker response to genuine needs findings communicated. faced by those in the field. essays (which appear in the full report only), the three scenarios form the key findings of To equip us all with the knowledge required to navigate the opportunities – and challenges – that What we did this study. lie ahead, we have partnered with Ipsos MORI to examine the research landscape in detail, both We reviewed the literature and examined what is happening and what could happen in the decade to come. In this report, we share with you In the conclusion, on pages 28 to 30, we look market drivers. Critically, we interviewed the insights we’ve gleaned from a great variety of stakeholders. at the implications of these scenarios and expert stakeholders to gather their views and the plans that Elsevier is putting in place in Focusing on a single potential outcome is problematic. Instead, we’ve thought about a number elicited the opinions of researchers. Over the response to this study. We also invite you to join of possible, plausible futures. Our goal is that these scenarios will fuel considered, controlled course of 2018, we talked with 56 experts us. And we have created a webpage on Elsevier. decisions. Our founding motto remains apt: Non Solus – Not Alone. By working together today, from funders and futurists to publishers and com1 where we will continue to monitor the we can shape a more positive tomorrow. Please do contact us with your thoughts and ideas – you technology experts, and we surveyed more market-available data and track progress can find out how in the conclusion. We look forward to hearing from you soon. than 2,000 researchers. towards the scenarios we’ve imagined. While no-one knows what the future holds, our hope Alexander van Boetzelaer We started all our expert interviews with the is that this report, particularly the scenarios, EVP of Strategy, Elsevier same question – if you could discover one thing about the world of research 10 years will help us all understand the implications of from now, what would you want to know? This the decisions we make today and ensure we helped participants to focus on the questions are well placed to meet the future – whatever and challenges already keeping them up at it brings. night, and identify issues likely to increase in importance over the coming decade. 1 www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier-research-futures-report 4 5 VISUAL OVERVIEW VISUAL OVERVIEW Building a guide to the future Together, the drivers, essays and scenarios form the key findings of this study. (Essays are included in the full version of the report.) A visual overview of the study DISCOVERY PHASE ANALYSIS PHASE SCENARIO BUILDING PHASE Step 4 Step 1 19 key drivers were identified, each of which THEME FOUR: Technology: revolution LITERATURE REVIEW is expected to shape developments in the or evolution? WORKSHOPS decade to come. These drivers (abbreviated 10. Big data is fast becoming the lifeblood Comprehensive review of the versions of which are listed below), have of nearly all research Three one-day workshops were published literature. been grouped into six themes. 11. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine- held with internal and external u Visit Mendeley2 to explore the learning tools are changing the shape experts. Attendees considered how references used in this report u Find the comprehensive versions of the drivers of science the 19 key drivers might influence and their associated essays in the full version of 12. Blockchain has the potential to facilitate research. the report. open science, but the technology is The result: Three credible scenarios, still in its infancy and may not fulfil each imagining what the future THEME ONE: Funding the future its promise might look like a decade from now. 1. The funding mix is changing; public 13. Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality funders will have less influence over (VR) will become key learning tools for a research priorities number of institutes 2. China is stepping up the funding and Step 2 production of research EXPERT INTERVIEWS 3. The research agenda is changing; THEME FIVE: Building the future Scenario one: there is an increased focus on making research information system Brave open world Interviews with 56 technology, research accessible 14. The role of the journal is transforming to State and philanthropic funders align in their research and publishing experts meet modern needs goals, approaches and principles, resulting around the globe. 15. The article structure is evolving and new in open science taking off, aided by artificial u See who we interviewed in the THEME TWO: Pathways to open science forms will become the norm intelligence-enabled technologies. Acknowledgements on page 31 4. Research grants will increasingly have 16. The measurement system will become open science conditions attached even more critical 5. Researchers are expected to spearhead adoption of open science, but not without Scenario two: experiencing conflicts of interests Tech titans THEME SIX: The academy and beyond 6. Metrics will continue to expand, enabled Technology companies support the research 17. Courses will diversify from a lecture- by new technology ecosystem and become knowledge creators focused model and curators in a world where industry funds 18. Higher education institutions are more and more research. changing structure THEME THREE: How researchers work: Step 3 19. EdTech will become a serious higher change ahead education contender RESEARCHER SURVEY 7. New technologies are expected to Scenario three: transform the researcher workflow over the Eastern ascendance A survey of 2,055 researchers coming 10 years China’s growing economic power and worldwide, asking them what they 8. Behaviors and skillsets will change as a focus on research and development (R&D) think the future holds. new generation of researchers arrives on influences the previously Western-dominated u the scene The full survey results are research landscape, resulting in a fragmented 3 available on Mendeley Data 9. Collaboration will drive research forward world. 1 www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier-research-futures-report u Read more about the methodology in the full version of this 2 www.mendeley.com/community/research-futures report, which is available to download from Elsevier.com1 3 https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/w6mj4tmkxp/1 6 7 VISUALIZING THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS VISUALIZING THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS Visualizing the future through scenarios Together, Elsevier and Ipsos MORI used the trends, survey results and expert input to develop three scenarios which explore what the research ecosystem might look like a decade from now: These scenarios are Brave open world, Tech titans and Eastern ascendance.