US Economic Indicators: Personal Saving
Yardeni Research, Inc.
August 27, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]
Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]
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thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents
Personal Saving 1-7
August 27, 2021 / Personal Saving Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Saving Figure 1. 7.1 7.1 PERSONAL SAVING Latest (1.7) (trillion dollars, saar) 6.1 6.1
5.1 5.1
4.1 4.1
3.1 3.1
2.1 2.1 Jul
1.1 1.1
yardeni.com .1 .1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 2. 4.5 4.5 PERSONAL SAVING (trillion dollars, 12-month sum) 4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.0 3.0
Jul 2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
.5 .5
yardeni.com .0 .0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics.
Page 1 / August 27, 2021 / Personal Saving Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Saving Figure 3. 35 35 PERSONAL SAVING RATE Latest (9.6) (percent)
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 Jul 10
5 5
yardeni.com 0 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 4. 24 24 PERSONAL SAVING RATE (12-month average) 22 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 Jul 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
yardeni.com 2 2 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 2 / August 27, 2021 / Personal Saving Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Saving Figure 5. 300 300 MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS HELD BY INDIVIDUALS 200 (12-month net inflows, billion dollars) 200 Total (-116.9) 100 100
0 0
-100 Jul -100
-200 -200
-300 -300 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
3000 3000 OTHER LIQUID DEPOSITS** (yearly change, billion dollars, sa) 2000 Latest (303.5) 2000
1000 1000
Jul 0 0
-1000 -1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
900 900 EQUITY + BOND MUTUAL FUNDS* 700 (12-month net inflows, billion dollars) 700 Total (194.7) 500 500
300 300 Jun 100 100
-100 -100
-300 -300 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
3000 3000 MUTUAL FUNDS (EQUITY + BOND + RETAIL MONEY MARKET) + SAVINGS DEPOSITS (12-month net inflows, billion dollars) 2000 Total (466.2) 2000 yardeni.com
1000 1000
Jun 0 0
-1000 -1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Net sales (including reinvested dividends) less redemptions plus the net result of fund switches. ** As of May 2020, "other liquid deposits" is a new category of M1 which combines "other checkable deposits" from old M1 and "savings deposits" from old M2. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Investment Company Institute.
Page 3 / August 27, 2021 / Personal Saving Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Saving Figure 6. 5.6 5.6 4.8 PERSONAL SAVING 4.8 4.0 (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 4.0 3.2 3.2
2.4 2.4
Q2 1.6 1.6
.8 .8 yardeni.com
0.0 0.0 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics.
Figure 7. 30 30 PERSONAL SAVING RATE Latest (10.3) (percent, sa)
20 20
10 Q2 10
yardeni.com 0 0 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / August 27, 2021 / Personal Saving Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Saving Figure 8. 4 4 CONSUMER CREDIT & PERSONAL SAVING (trillion dollars)
3 3 Personal Saving (12-month sum) (2.6) Jul Consumer Credit Outstanding* (12-month change) (0.2) 2 2
1 1
Jun 0 0
yardeni.com -1 -1 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Break-adjusted level series are calculated by Haver Analytics using the level data and the break-adjusted percent changes reported by the FRB. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 9. 200 200 CONSUMER CREDIT* 175 (yearly change, billion dollars, sa) Jun 175 150 150
125 125
100 100
75 75
50 50
25 25
0 Jun 0
-25 -25
-50 Revolving Credit (-1.5) -50 Nonrevolving Credit (174.8) -75 -75
-100 -100
-125 -125 yardeni.com -150 -150 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Break-adjusted level series are calculated by Haver Analytics using the level data and the break-adjusted percent changes reported by the FRB. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 5 / August 27, 2021 / Personal Saving Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Saving Figure 10. 5 5 M2 vs PERSONAL SAVING (trillion dollars)
4 4
M2 (yearly change) (2.2) 3 Personal Saving 3 (12-month sum) (2.6)
Jul 2 2
1 1
yardeni.com 0 0 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Haver Analytics.
Figure 11. 7.1 7.1 PERSONAL SAVING (trillion dollars) 6.1 6.1
5.1 5.1
4.1 4.1 saar (1.7) 12-month_sum (2.8) 3.1 3.1 Jun
2.1 2.1 Jun
1.1 1.1
yardeni.com .1 .1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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