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Home , Volodymyr Zelensky

IRMO Institut za razvoj i međunarodne odnose Institute for Development and International Relations I R M O Ured u Zagrebu

B R E F 12 2019 I

Volodymyr Zelensky’s Sweeping Victories: Is ’s Turn Toward the West Definite? By Krševan Antun Dujmović

Introduction

For more than half a decade Ukraine has been of the country also changed. Ukraine has been one of epicenters on the map of geopolitical dominated by as the Russian Empire crises in the world and consequently drawn penetrated deep toward the Black Sea in the 17th a lot of international attention worldwide. century, and the position of inferiority towards was also the case in the USSR. The

Ever since it gained its independence form the sort of buffer zone between the West and East, in 2004, brought to power , crumbling in 1991, Ukraine was a first upheaval dubbed the between the and European allies who tried to conduct reforms and bring on the one hand, and the Russian Federation Ukraine closer to the West, but the effect of his on the other. With the change of political elites Presidency were ephemeral. President Viktor and their political preferences, the orientation

Yanukovych turned Ukraine’s sight toward

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1 Russia again, but also kept the process of EU was held and installed the billionaire candidate to power after a sweeping to sign the Association Agreement with the EU association alive before suddenly deciding not just days before the planned signing ceremony victory in which he garnered almost 55% of th moment for Ukraine, as in May referendums in the votes. Poroshenko took office at the critical on 29 November 2013. This Yanukovych’s abrupt turn from EU in favor of stronger ties Donetsk and Oblasts, disputed by the demonstrations which later become known as with Russia triggered the wave of massive public government in Kiev, were held, with majority of the and subsequently the Ukrainian scale war broke out between the pro-Russian voters opting for self-rule. In the meantime, a full

his inauguration new President Poroshenko, revolution in February 2014. The Euromaidan rebels and Ukrainian forces. Immediately after as Ukrainian Supreme Commander in Chief, Revolution toppled Yanukovych and the new soon reacted to the change of tide in Ukraine pro-Western government was formed. Russia by annexing the Crimean peninsula in March Ukrainian military which was lacking equipment had to get involved in combat. He took over the and adequate training, as well facing rebels supported by the secondly military power in the and soon the armed conflict between the pro- world. The new president surprisingly managed Western government in Kiev and Russia backed to regroup Ukrainian forces which conducted rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts broke out. Ever since the spring of 2014, Ukraine has of the country that is hampering its efforts to large swath of territory that had perilously been been engulfed in a brutal conflict in the east counter offensives and regained control of a reform and get closer to the EU. Nonetheless, controlled by the rebels. Poroshenko managed Ukrainian leadership is under the new President to rebuild the Ukrainian Army and to curb the expansion of the rebel-controlled territory links with the West and the EU. which lead to the formation of the Trilateral Volodymir Zelensky is striving to forge stronger Contact Group on Ukraine, Protocol and

Ukraine’s shift towards the West subsequent ceasefire in Ukraine. Although the the intensity of large scale military operations ceasefire has not been fully implemented to date, seen in spring and summer of 2014 was to a unfolding outbreak of hostilities with Russia, Following the Euromaidan revolution and the the Ukrainian political elite shifted their sight Poroshenko could dedicate more attention to toward the West and sought to pan out stronger large extent not seen ever since, and President reform process and to pursue pro-Western ambitions of Ukraine. ties with the US, the EU and NATO. In May 2014 the first post-Euromaidan presidential election

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2 The ratification of Ukraine– Association In order to distance Ukraine more from Russia, Agreement was a major success for Poroshenko also sought to sever ties with the large part of the Ukrainian population pertains the pro-European forces in Ukraine Russian Orthodox Church in Moscow (ROC), as a and Poroshenko personally. to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow After the signing ceremony of the Ukraine– Patriarchate (UOC-MP), which is a branch of European Union Association Agreement was the ROC. Uniting the UOC-MP, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kiev Patriarchate (UOC- KP) and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox stalled in November 2013, the Agreement in March 2014. Poroshenko signed the Church (UAOC) at the Unification Council in was finally reached at an EU summit held in economic part of the Agreement three months December 2018 in Kiev, the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) was installed. the tomos of autocephaly by the Ecumenical member states, the Agreement came into effect Ukrainian Orthodox Church was granted later. Following the ratification process in all EU

European Union Association Agreement was Patriarchate of Constantinople in January 2019 in September 2017. The ratification of Ukraine– and its canonical territory covers Ukraine. The a major success for the pro-European forces in Cristian world and its creation is condemned OCU is partially recognized in the Orthodox brought a formalized relation between the two Ukraine and Poroshenko personally as it finally parties by establishing economic and political as schism in Russia by Russian officials and the Russian Orthodox Church, and it’s a clear association between the EU and Ukraine. will to create a national and cultural identity sign of Ukrainian political and church elite’s independent of Moscow. Stalling the signing of the Agreement provoked the toppling and ousting of Yanukovych and the wanted to bring by inking this Agreement was to The rise of Volodymyr Zelensky and the Euromaidan Revolution. The change that Ukraine create a closer link with the EU and the West. American involvement

In order to distance Ukraine attempts to curb the wide spread corruption more from Russia, Poroshenko Dissatisfaction with Poroshenko’s feckless and the ongoing hostilities in the east of the also sought to sever ties with

the Russian Orthodox Church in to power. Prior to his political engagement, country have propelled Volodymyr Zelensky Moscow. Zelensky had a career as an actor and media

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3 personality. The production company he tackle the omnipresent corruption, and bring

People”, a TV series in which Zelensky had a new face on the political scene untainted created, Kvartal 95, produced “Servant of the Ukraine closer to the West. In spite of him being a leading role of the . A with corruption scandals, Zelensky has for a political party baring the same name as the TV long time, like all Ukrainian presidents before show was formed in March 2018 by Zelensky him, kept close ties with business oligarchs. This was the case in particular with one of the announced he was going to run for Ukrainian and his team from the production company. He country’s most prominent and richest persons, before the public announcement, opinion polls President in December 2018. Nonetheless, even , who actively supported had been indicating he was going to be one of Russian separatists in 2014. the Ukrainian troops in the fight against pro- the frontrunners as his TV show was extremely popular in Ukraine. played a crucial role in supporting the pro-Western forces In the second round in April in Ukraine during and after the 2019 Zelensky swiftly defeated Euromaidan Revolution. Poroshenko with over 73% of the vote. Just months after assuming the presidential

core of a scandal that once again put Ukraine on office, Zelensky found himself encroached at a held in March and in the second round in April the headlines of major media outlets worldwide The first round of the presidential election was and fomented the biggest political earthquake

2019 Zelensky swiftly defeated Poroshenko with over 73% of the vote. Just three months on Capitol Hill in years. A summary of a phone President that took place in July later his party () was also call conversation between Zelensky and US highly successful, wining 43% of the popular Rada, which now has the single party majority after a complaint of whistleblower was made vote and 248 seats in the 450 seats of Verkhovna was released by the White House in September public. The whistleblower claimed that Trump for the first time in modern history. Zelensky’s elections are partly due to his charisma, but landside victories on presidential and general had put pressure on Zelensky to investigate Joe US Vice President at the time of the Euromiadan Biden’s son . Joe Biden served as that he would bring on the so needed reforms, more to the conviction of the Ukrainian voters Revolution and the War in Donbass that

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4 followed. Together with the former Assistant Ukraine in the center of European politics Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs at the US Department of State Victoria Nuland, Joe Biden played a crucial role in European leaders have not been able to supporting the pro-Western forces in Ukraine define a commons position toward Ukraine ever since it gained its independence in 1991. during and after the Euromaidan Revolution. The West supported Viktor Yushchenko’s the biggest natural gas producer in Ukraine, EU did not seize not the opportunity to bring In the aftermath of the Euromaidan Revolution, Orange Revolution in 2004 and 2005, but the

Burisma, hired Vice President’s son and then in Ukraine closer to Europe. The division among Ukrainian company. This enticed Trump to ask April 2014 Hunter Biden joined the board of the European leaders on Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions was particularly evident during the at the time when a presidential order to freeze Zelensky on the phone to investigate the Bidens NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008 when nearly 400 million dollars in US military help Membership Action Plan was blocked by France ’s and Ukraine’s bid to join the NATO to Ukraine was issued. This all lead to a formal and Germany. Most of the new EU member impeachment inquiry against Trump initiated

states, supported by the US, are in favor of clear Congress on grounds that the president used the other side are Western European members by the House of Representatives of the US Euro-Atlantic perspective for Ukraine, and on US aid for a foreign country and put pressure who want to consolidate the EU. With the crisis in the EU fueled by ongoing Brexit, European the Democratic Party presidential primaries. Neighborhood and Enlargement Policies are on Zelensky to harm Joe Biden’s odds to win Joe Biden is currently campaigning to become a Democratic nominee for the US President in not among EU’s priorities. Further to this, the the presidential election next year. The ongoing new European initiative which underpins and Defense Policy and its autonomy vis-a- the importance of EU’s Common Security impeachment inquiry on Capitol Hill and the vis Democrats, clearly indicates how entangled deep rift dividing the Republicans and the NATO and the US, seeks a more appeasing Ukrainian and American interests are, and the Russian annexation of Crimea and subsequent approach to Ukraine’s rival Russia. While the importance of Ukraine in US foreign policy. meddling in the war in the Ukrainian foreign policy orientation is set and introduction of sanctions to Russia, there is With Zelensky’s overt inclination for the West provoked unanimous European condemnation to look toward Washington and US patronage. no common position how to approach Russia in regards to .

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5 Most of the new EU member states, vetoed NATO’s joint supported by the US, are in favor statement on Ukraine blocking of clear Euro-Atlantic perspective 50 million euros in assistance to for Ukraine. Ukraine’s border infrastructure development.

Ukrainian pipeline transmitting system, In order to avoid transit of natural gas through Russia has decided to build a new pipeline Division of European countries on the issue 2 which will bring gas from the of stronger collaboration between NATO and Ukraine is even more evident. In October, the Baltic to Germany. The construction of NS2 Russian Federation directly over the seabed of Hungary vetoed NATO’s joint statement on which is nearing its completion has sparked Ukraine blocking 50 million euros in assistance an outcry in Ukraine who will lose millions of to Ukraine’s border infrastructure development. euros in gas transit tariffs. The NS2 project led As Hungary claims, Ukraine is depriving the by the Russian energy giant Gazprom includes rights of Hungarian Trans-Carpathian minority a consortium comprised of Austrian, Dutch, Ensuring the Functioning of the Ukrainian after the country in 2017 adopted the law ‘’On hand, European countries that oppose the French and German companies. On the other Language as the State Language.’’ project, primarily Poland and the Baltic states, Conclusion claim that this project will strengthen the

Russian leverage in Europe and weaken Ukraine war in Donbass were a turning point in facing Russia backed rebels. On top of this, both The Euromaidan Revolution and the unfolding agreed in December on a defense bill that Ukrainian history. The support of the Russian the US Senate and the House of Representatives would allow the US administration to impose Federation to the separatists in the east of the country and the annexation of Crimea project. European energy security also indicates turned Ukraine away from its eastern neighbor sanctions on companies involved in the NS2 after centuries of Russian domination. Both President Poroshenko and Zelensky used the how divided EU members states are on position EU and the US are on eastern European affairs. momentum of pro-European and pro-Western toward Russia and Ukraine and how divided the

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6 sentiment among Ukrainian population to in Ukraine, that is based on fundamental liberal- boost their popularity and gain support during democratic standards and rules, the EU needs their election campaigns. The creation of the

to develop a more coherent and structured of new language law that will emancipate Orthodox Church of Ukraine and adoption approach to the issues at stake and provide in face of opposition posed undertake reforms. Without this, it seems that sustainable assistance to country’s endeavor to by the widely spread , will the country might be left embroiled with its serve as a boon for Ukrainian national identity. tycoon oligarchies, flourishing corruption and Ukraine is not able to cut a clear path through However, while cutting off ties with Russia, unresolved conflict in the east. to the EU. The EU is facing a deep institutional Krševan Antun Dujmović is a Senior its raison d’être and functioning model. Europe crisis and seeks to reinvent itself and redefine Associate at the Institute for Development and has also not been so divided for decades on how DISCLAIMER:International Relations (IRMO). with other major global players, including the to view its own role in the world and relations paper are solely of the author and do not The views presented in this will keep supporting Ukraine, as well as other US, China and Ukraine’s rival Russia. The US eastern European countries like Poland and represent an official position of the Institute for Development and International Relations Europe. But in order to build a European society (IRMO) or of the Hanns Seidel Foundation. Romania, in order to curb Russian influence in

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