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Security & Defence NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE π 1-2 (181-182) CONTENT UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: 2020 THE RUSSIAN FACTOR...........................................................................................2 Founded.and.published.by: 1. UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: EVOLUTION, ISSUES, ACHIEVEMENTS...................................................................3 1.1...Evolution.of.Kyiv-Brussels.Relations:.. Stages.and.Characteristics........................................................................................... 3 UKRAINIAN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STUDIES NAMED AFTER OLEXANDER RAZUMKOV 1.2..Political.Association.and.Economic.Integration.with.the.EU........................................ 7 Director.General. Anatoliy.Rachok 1.3..European.Union:.Internal.Trends.and.Issues.............................................................. 12 Editor-in-Chief. Yuriy.Yakymenko 1.4..“European.Integration.Start”.of.the.New.Government............................................... 17 Editor. Hanna.Pashkova. 2. UKRAINE-EU-RUSSIA: . Halyna.Balanovych CERTAIN ASPECTS OF RELATIONS............................................................................23 Photo-editor. Andriy.Khopta 2.1...Economic.Aspects.of.Kyiv-Brussels.Cooperation:.. Layout.and.design. Tetiana.Ovsianyk.. The.Russian.Factor.................................................................................................... 23 . Oleksandr.Shaptala 2.2..Ukraine-EU-Russia:.Energy.Component.................................................................... 37 Technical.support. Volodymyr.Kekukh. Appendix........................................................................................................................ 45 . Yevhen.Skrypka 3. UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: This.journal.is.registered.with.the.. RUSSIAN INFLUENCE AND COUNTERWORK.......................................................55 State.Committee.. of.Ukraine.for.Information.Policy,. 3.1...Ukraine’s.European.Integration.–.Challenge.and.. registration.certificate.KB.№4122 Threat.to.Current.Political.Regime.in.Russia............................................................. 55 Published.since.2000.in.Ukrainian.and.English 3.2...Kremlin’s.Strategy.and.Goals.in.the.Post-Soviet.Space... Ukrainian.Foothold..................................................................................................... 56 Editorial.address:.. 16.Lavrska.str.,.2nd.floor,. 3.3...Kremlin’s.Obstruction.to.Ukraine’s.EU.Progress:.. Kyiv,.01015. Means.and.Tools........................................................................................................ 58 tel.:.(380.44).201-11-98. 3.4...Russia’s.Expansion.in.the.EU..................................................................................... 61 fax:.(380.44).201-11-99. e-mail:[email protected]. 3.5...EU-Ukraine:.Solidarity.and.. web.site:.www.razumkov.org.ua Countering.Russian.Aggression................................................................................. 63 The.opinions.and.statements.in.this.publication. UKRAINE’S PATH TO THE EU: PROBLEMS, ACHIEVEMENTS, OBSTACLES reflect.position.of.authors.and.may.not.coincide.. (Interviews).............................................................................................................66 with.position.of.donors Dmytro KULEBA, Serhiy KORSUNSKY, Reprinted.or.used.materials.must.refer.to.. Ivanna KLYMPUSH-TSINTSADZE, “National.Security.&.Defence” Volodymyr OHRYZKO, All.photographs.in.this.publication.. Volodymyr FESENKO, are.taken.from.the.public.sources.. Kostiantyn KONONENKO, Vitalii MARTYNIUK ©.2020.Razumkov.Centre UKRAINE’S MOVEMENT TO THE EU: FOREIGN EXPERTS' OPINION “Ukraine’s.European.Integration:. (Interviews).............................................................................................................79 The.Russian.Factor”.Project.was. realized.with.the.assistance.and. Jacek KLUCZKOWSKI, support.of.the.Konrad.Adenauer. Susan STEWART, Stiftung.Office.in.Ukraine Kataryna WOLCZUK UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: THE RUSSIAN FACTOR The pace and effectiveness of Kyiv’s European integration course depends on many internal and external factors. The key ones being the political will of Ukrainian government, ability to implement and dedication to real pro-European changes in the country that would be tangible for Ukrainian citizens. This is the internal factor that is the main issue on the path to integration into the European community. That being said, European integration is a two-way street. The quality and level of Kyiv-Brussels relations to a great extent depend on the position and engagement of the European side, including EU’s internal processes and trends, which are rather complex, controversial and sometimes centrifugal in their nature at the moment. We are talking about an increased sentiment of restoring partnerships with Russia in the “business as usual” format inside the EU’s business and political circles. Russian hybrid aggression is a dangerous factor. For the Russian leadership that views post-Soviet countries as its zone of “privileged” interest, an independent Ukraine headed towards Europe and NATO is both a challenge and a threat. Firstly, Kyiv’s successful European integration is an incentive for other post-Soviet countries to step up, which means a failure for Russia’s plans of “forced” reintegration of Eurasian countries. Secondly, Kyiv achieving success in its European project is a model for Russian citizens and a convincing evidence of the inability of Russia’s authoritarian regime to offer an attractive democratic model of social development. This is why the Russian regime is using all of its available “hybrid warfare” to prevent Ukraine from integrating into Europe – from political and diplomatic pressure, economic blockade, information warfare to military intervention – occupation of Crimea and Donbas. Currently, Ukraine is a training ground and a testing area for Russia’s massive purposeful expansion into the EU territory. In particular, this includes discrediting the unifying European values and institutions, disorienting public opinion, interfering with elections, formation of pro-Russian lobby within the European establishment, support of radical movements, etc. The goal of this influence is to disintegrate the EU, reform Europe’s political system in line with the Russian scenario. An important factor is the EU member states’, institutions’ and other countries’ assistance and solidarity with Ukraine, as well as sanctions introduced by the West. Regrettably, over the period of almost six years, the sanctions have failed to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine, failed to change the nature of Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy. Yet it is certainly crucial that the EU and other countries uphold a common course of conduct in regard to Russia, maintain and strengthen the “sanctions frontline”. At the same time, assessing the current confrontation in the notional Ukraine-EU-Russia “triangle”, it is worth noting that these problems have been temporarily overshadowed by the global COVID-19 pandemic. On the one hand, the pandemic has affected internal and external priorities of different countries, has shaken the global economy. On the other – it has “hit the pause button” for Ukraine’s European integration, made adjustments to EU-Ukraine Association Agreement implementation plans. Obviously, the problems that have been temporarily postponed will later resurface again – this time in the new circumstances and in the new form. Section one talks about stages of evolution of Kyiv-Brussels relations, analyses internal and external processes and factors that influence Ukraine’s integration into the EU, assesses the “European integration start” of the new government. Section two presents an overall picture of trends and dynamic of relations within the notional Ukraine-EU-Russia “triangle” in economics and the energy sector. Section three analyses the specifics and peculiarities of Kremlin’s hybrid aggression both in Ukraine and on the entire European continent. It evaluates the means and mechanisms used by Russia to block and prevent Ukraine from integrating into Europe. “Ukraine’s.European.Integration:.The.Russian.Factor”.report.was.prepared.by.a.team.of.authors:.M.Pashkov.(head.of. project),.Co-director.of.Foreign.Policy.and.International.Security.Programmes.of.the.Razumkov.Centre;.M.Honchar,.President. of. the. Centre. for. Global. Studies. “Strategy. XXI”;. V.Sidenko,. Razumkov. Centre. Scientific. Consultant. on. Economic. Issues;. I.Stukalenko,.Manager.of.Energy.Programmes.at.the.Centre.for.Global.Studies.“Strategy.XXI”;.L.Shanhina,.Razumkov.Centre. Scientific.Consultant.on.Social.and.Humanitarian.Issues. 2 • RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • No1-2, 2020 1. UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: EVOLUTION, ISSUES, ACHIEVEMENTS his section analyses the dynamic of evolution of Kyiv-Brussels relations, stages of partnership T development, in particular, development of a shared treaty and legislation framework, which is now represented by the Association Agreement. On the one hand, the Agreement is the basis of political association and economic integration between Kyiv and Brussels, and on the other – a guideline and plan for Ukrainian reforms in various sectors. Obviously, the Agreement is a two- way street and thus the important factors include both: Ukraine's internal transformations and the situation within the EU, which clearly affect the parties’ current interaction, as well as the prospects of Kyiv’s advancement toward the European
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