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2015 Israil Seçimleri: Süreçler, Aktörler, Projeksiyonlar

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2015 Israil Seçimleri: Süreçler, Aktörler, Projeksiyonlar Rapor No: 197, Mart 2015 2015 İSRAİL SEÇİMLERİ: SÜREÇLER, AKTÖRLER, PROJEKSİYONLAR ORTADOĞU STRATEJİK ARAŞTIRMALAR MERKEZİ CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN STRATEGIC STUDIES ORSAM Süleyman Nazif Sokak No: 12-B Çankaya / Ankara Tel: 0 (312) 430 26 09 Fax: 0 (312) 430 39 48 www.orsam.org.tr, [email protected] 2015 İSRAİL SEÇİMLERİ: SÜREÇLER, AKTÖRLER, PROJEKSİYONLAR ORSAM Rapor No: 197 Mart 2015 ISBN: 978-605-9157-00-1 Ankara - TÜRKİYE ORSAM © 2015 Bu raporun içeriğinin telif hakları ORSAM’a ait olup, 5846 Sayılı Fikir ve Sanat Eserleri Kanunu uyarınca kaynak gösterilerek kısmen yapılacak makul alıntılar ve yararlanma dışında, hiçbir şekilde önceden izin alınmaksızın kullanılamaz, yeniden yayımlanamaz. Bu raporda yer alan değerlendirmeler yazarına aittir; ORSAM’ın kurumsal görüşünü yansıtmamaktadır. Hazırlayan: M. Mustafa KULU ORSAM 2 Rapor No: 197, Mart 2015 İçindekiler Takdim ..................................................................................................................................................................5 Giriş: Seçimlere Gidilen Süreçteki Siyasi Gelişmeler ................................................................................. 7 İsrail Seçim Sistemi........................................................................................................................................... 9 Seçimde Yer Alacak Grup ve Partiler ...................................................................................................... 12 Siyonist Kamp.............................................................................................................................................. 12 Likud ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 Müşterek Liste............................................................................................................................................. 15 Bayit Yehudi/ Yahudi Yurdu...................................................................................................................... 16 Yeş Atid......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Kulanu............................................................................................................................................................17 ŞAS ................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Yahadut Hatora/ Birleşik Tevrat Yahudiliği............................................................................................ 18 Yisrael Beytenu/ İsrail Yurdumuz............................................................................................................. 18 Meretz........................................................................................................................................................... 19 Yahad- Ha’am İtanu..................................................................................................................................... 20 Seçim Gündemi: Ekonomi mi? Güvenlik mi?............................................................................................. 20 Seçim Sonrası Muhtemel Gelişmeler............................................................................................................25 SONUÇ............................................................................................................................................................. 29 KAYNAKÇA..................................................................................................................................................... 30 ORSAM Rapor No: 197, Mart 2015 3 ORSAM 4 Rapor No: 197, Mart 2015 TAKDİM 22 Ocak 2013’de yapılan İsrail genel seçimlerinden iki yıl iki ay sonra, İsrail kabinesin- deki anlaşmazlık dolayı, İsrail Meclisi’nde 8 Aralık 2014’de erken seçim kararı alınmıştır. 17 Mart 2015 tarihinde yapılacak olan milletvekili genel seçimlerinin İsrail’in iç ve dış siyasetinde değişime yol açıp açmayacağı bölge ve dünya siyasetiyle ilgilenenlerin kaçınıl- maz olarak merak ettiği bir konu olmuştur. Fakat İsrail seçim kampanyalarında bu konu çok fazla tartışılmamıştır. 2009 yılından itibaren arka arkaya altı yıl başbakanlık yapan Netanyahu’nun yerine, yeni bir başbakan alternatifinin belirlenmesi, bu seçimlerde en önemi gündem maddesidir. Bu durum, İsrail siyasetine yeni bir heyecan getirmiş, yeni it- tifaklara yol açmıştır. 2011 sosyal protestoları ile başlayan süreç, İsrail siyasetinde alternatif arayışlarını hızlandır- mıştır. Bu çerçevede daha önceki seçimlerde ekonomik meselelerin aleyhine, barış süreci ve güvenlik ile ilgili meseleler seçim gündemini yoğun olarak belirlemiştir. Buna karşın, 2015 seçimlerinde ekonomik konular seçim gündeminin ilk sırasına yükselirken, barış süreci ve güvenlik meseleleri daha az gündeme gelmiştir. Bu seçimlerde birinci partinin hangisi olacağı kadar hangi partinin liderliğinde koalisyonun kurulacağı meselesi de hem siyasi analizlerde hem de seçim anketi analizlerinde yoğun ola- rak tartışılmaktadır. Kısacası bu seçimler, Netanyahu’nun başbakanlığının devam edip etmeyeceğiyle de ilgi- lidir. Bu seçimlerden sonra Netanyahu’nun başbakanlığı devam ettirememesi ise, Likud partisinde liderlik arayışlarının başlamasını hızlandıracaktır. İşte İsrail siyasi hayatının olduğu kadar uluslararası ilişkilerini de etkileyebilecek olan bu seçimlere ışık tutması mak- sadıyla, elinizdeki bu çalışma seçimlere giden süreçte temel gelişmeler, siyasi aktörler ve seçim sonrasına dair projeksiyonlar içermektedir. Doç. Dr. Şaban Kardaş ORSAM Başkanı ORSAM Rapor No: 197, Mart 2015 5 ORSAM Rapor No: 197, Mart 2015 ORSAM ORSAM ORSAM CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN STRATEGIC STUDIES Hazırlayan: M. Mustafa KULU 2015 İSRAİL SEÇİMLERİ: SÜREÇLER, AKTÖRLER, PROJEKSİYONLAR Giriş: Seçimlere Gidilen Süreçteki Siyasi Gelişmeler 22 Ocak 2013’te yapılan 19. dönem mec- da önemli değişikliklere sebebiyet verme lis (Knesset) seçimlerinden sonra, İsrail’de potansiyelinden dolayı büyük siyasi tar- 20. dönem seçimlerin dört yıl sekiz ay tışmalara yol açmıştır. (Scheindlin, 2014). sonra, 7 Kasım 2017 tarihinde yapılması Bundan dolayı söz konusu temel kanun gerekiyordu. Fakat mecliste görüşülmekte tasarısı, koalisyon ortaklarından Hatnua olan “Temel Kanun: İsrail- Yahudi Hal- partisi lideri Adalet Bakanı Tzipi Livni ve kının Ulus Devleti” [Yahudi ulus devleti Yeş Atid partisi lideri Maliye Bakanı Yair kanunu olarak kısaltılmıştır] ve 2015 yılı Lapid’in, Likud partisi lideri Başbakan bütçe görüşmelerindeki sorunlar, seçim- Binyamin Netanyahu ile arasının açılma- lerin erkene alınmasına neden olmuştur. sına yol açmıştır (Prusher, 2014). Böylece 67 yıllık İsrail parlamento tarihin- de,19. dönem meclisi, 20 ay yasama yapan Yahudi ulus-devlet kanunu ile Yahudilik 4. Knesset’ten sonra en kısa süreli parla- ve demokrasi arasında hali hazırda var mento olmuştur. olan dengenin demokrasi aleyhine bozul- masından endişe duyan 19. dönem İsrail Hükümetteki milliyetçi ve dindar partiler meclisindeki sol ve merkez partiler, bu tarafından hazırlanan Yahudi ulus devleti temel kanuna şiddetle itiraz etmişlerdir kanununda, İsrail, “Yahudi halkının ana (Sterman, 2014). Bu partilere göre, İsrail’in vatanı ve ulus devleti” olarak tanımlanır- Yahudi devleti olduğu ve tüm vatandaşla- ken “her İsrail vatandaşının eşit haklara rına din, dil, ırk ayrımı gözetmeksizin eşit sahip olduğu” temel prensibi vurgulan- mıştır. Bu temel prensibin yanında, farklı haklar verilmesi gerektiği, 1948 tarihli İs- yasalarda olmasına rağmen, anayasa eş- rail Devleti’nin kuruluş beyannamesinde değerinde olan temel kanun metinlerin- belirtildiği için böyle bir temel kanunun de daha önce yer almayan devletin sem- yasalaşmasına ihtiyaç yoktur. Bu durum bolleri, Yahudilerin göçü, güç durumdaki hem İsrail iç siyasetindeki uyumu bozacak Yahudilere yardım, Yahudi kültürü, resmi hem de İsrail’i uluslararası kamuoyunda takvim, millî bayramlar, dini bayramlar, zor duruma düşürecektir(Hoffman, 2014). Yahudi hukuku, kutsal yerlerin muha- Bu kanuna şiddetle itiraz eden Arap par- fazası gibi konular da söz konusu temel tileri ise, Yahudilik ve demokrasi arasında kanununa dahil edilmiştir. (IMFA, 2014) dengenin mümkün olmadığını savunarak, Söz konusu düzenlemelerin temel kanun bu kanunun çıkmasıyla Arapların mevcut olarak 14 maddede resmileşmesi, uzun va- sosyal ve siyasi haklarının daha da kötüle- dede İsrail devletinin iç ve dış politikasın- şeceğini iddia etmişlerdir (Balofsky, 2014). ORSAM Rapor No: 197, Mart 2015 7 ORSAM ORTADOĞU STRATEJİK ARAŞTIRMALAR MERKEZİ Netanyahu’nun ve diğer koalisyon parti- Lapid’in teklif ettiği bütçenin, 2009’dan lerinin Yahudi ulus devleti temel kanunu beri sürdürdüğü sorumlu bütçeyi tehli- meselesinde hassasiyet göstermelerinin keye atacağını düşünen Netanyahu, 2015 temel sebebi, sadece iç politikadaki ta- bütçe teklifini kabul etmeyerek Yahu- lepten kaynaklanmıyordu. Netanyahu’ya di ulus devleti kanununa da karşı olan göre bu kanun, Filistin barış görüşmele- Lapid’in görevine son vermiş ve erken se- rinde önemli bir yer teşkil etmekteydi. çime gitmeyi tercih etmiştir. Böylece Ne- Filistinlilerle yapılan müzakere sürecinde, tanyahu, 2015 seçimleri sonrasında yeni Netanyahu, Filistin tarafının imzalanacak bütçe kabul edilene kadar 2014 yılı bütçe- olan barış anlaşmasında İsrail’i bir “Yahu- sini uygulamayı tercih etmiştir. di devleti”
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