Chapter 5 5. Climate Change Analysis
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Impact of Climate on Eastern U.S. Wine Production A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Rosalyn F. MacCracken Doctor of Philosophy George Mason University, 2010 Director: Paul Houser, Professor Department of Earth Systems and Information Sciences Fall Semester 2010 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2010 Rosalyn F. MacCracken All Rights Reserved ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my Ph.D. advisor, Dr. Paul R. Houser, for his guidance, support and insight throughout this program. He has encouraged me to pursue my own interests, and supported my ideas. I would also like to thank Dr. Sheryl Luzzadder Beach, for her thoughtful guidance, encouragement and all of her assistance throughout this program. I would also like to thank the rest of my committee members, Dr. Chaowei Yang and Dr. Emilia Jin, for their thoughtful insight and assistance throughout this program. A special acknowledgement is noted to my colleague, Dr. Greg V. Jones, whose advice, insight and generous help throughout my research was invaluable. I also would like to extend my sincere gratitude to my husband, Bob, and my friends, who gave me an incredible amount of support and encouragement throughout this program. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................iv LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................viii LIST OF TABLES.................................................................................................................ix ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................x Chapter 1..................................................................................................................................1 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................1 1.1 Importance of Climate................................................................................................2 1.2 Statement of Problem.............................................................................................4 1.3 Objective and Scope...............................................................................................6 1.4 Organization of Dissertation ......................................................................................7 1.5 Major Data Sources ..................................................................................................10 1.5.1 Datasets.............................................................................................................10 1.5.2 Software ............................................................................................................16 1.6 Principal Results .........................................................................................................19 Chapter 2................................................................................................................................21 2. Literature Review.............................................................................................................21 2.1 Vineyard Site Suitability Studies.............................................................................21 2.2 Impacts of Temperature on Site Suitability ............................................................24 2.3 Additional Climate Parameters and Site Suitability...........................................36 2.4 Review of Temperature based Climate Classification Indices..............................40 Chapter 3................................................................................................................................44 3. US Wine Industry and Climate Overview......................................................................44 3.1 US Wine Industry History and Current Status........................................................44 3.2 Evaluation of US Climate Indices Maps.................................................................49 3.2.1 Links between Koppen Classification Scheme and climate patterns........50 3.2.3 Comparison of Climate Parameters for the US ...............................................54 Chapter 4................................................................................................................................61 4. Index Evaluation ..............................................................................................................61 4.1 Standard Climate-Viticulture Indices........................................................................61 4.1.1 Analysis..............................................................................................................61 4.2 Proposed New Index.................................................................................................64 4.2.1 Variables included in the Index........................................................................64 4.2.2 Methodology.................................................................................................65 iv 4.2.2 Analysis..............................................................................................................67 Chapter 5................................................................................................................................71 5. Climate Change Analysis ................................................................................................71 5.1 Overview .....................................................................................................................71 5.2 Data and Methodology.........................................................................................75 5.3 Results .......................................................................................................................79 5.4 Discussion ...................................................................................................................85 Chapter 6................................................................................................................................94 6. Summary and Conclusion................................................................................................94 6.1 Conclusions...............................................................................................................94 6.1.1 Documenting climate structure.........................................................................95 6.1.2 Role of the climate .............................................................................................96 6.1.3 Insight into current and future site suitability...................................................97 6.2 Future directions...................................................................................................98 Appendix I: Wine association website listing..................................................................100 Appendix II: State and AVA Climate Indices Analysis..................................................104 Northeast..........................................................................................................................105 Connecticut..................................................................................................................106 Western Connecticut Highlands AVA ......................................................................108 Southeastern New England AVA ..............................................................................110 Maine...........................................................................................................................112 Massachusetts..............................................................................................................114 Martha’s Vineyard AVA............................................................................................116 New Hampshire...........................................................................................................118 New Jersey ..................................................................................................................120 Outer Coastal Plain AVA...........................................................................................122 Warren Hills AVA......................................................................................................124 Central Delaware Valley AVA ..................................................................................126 New York ....................................................................................................................128 Finger Lakes AVA......................................................................................................130 Seneca Lake sub-AVA ...............................................................................................132 Cayuga Lake sub-AVA ..............................................................................................134 Niagara Escarpment AVA..........................................................................................136 Lake Erie AVA ...........................................................................................................138 Hudson River Region AVA .......................................................................................140