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Flying Blind: the Rise, Fall, and Possible Resurrection of Science Policy Advice in the United States

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Flying Blind: the Rise, Fall, and Possible Resurrection of Science Policy Advice in the United States FEDERATION of ofAAMERICANMERICANSCIENTISTSSCIENTISTS Flying Blind: The Rise, Fall, and Possible Resurrection of Science Policy Advice in the United States Henry Kelly, Ivan Oelrich, Steven Aftergood, Benn H.Tannenbaum Occasional Paper No. 2 December 2004 About the Federation of American Scientists For almost sixty years, the Federation of American Scientists and its members have played a critical role in identifying opportunities and risks resulting from advances in science and technology. We engage in research and advocacy to ensure that advances in science and technology make our nation more secure, our economy more sustainable, and our society more just. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) was founded in 1945 by Manhattan Project scientists who recognized that atomic weapons had irreversibly changed the role of scientists in national affairs. Our members are united by the conviction that scientists and engineers have a unique opportunity — and responsibility — to help America seize the benefits of their discoveries and inventions and avoid their potential dangers. Our current work is focused on some of our country’s most critical policy challenges: strategic security, information technologies, science policy, housing and energy. Our work is funded by membership dues, philanthropic foundations, corporate and individual gifts, and government grants. FAS is a 501(c)3 organization. Donations and gifts are tax-deductible. Join or donate online at http://www.fas.org/join.html, or contact us at 202.546.3300. The Occasional Paper Series is a publication of the Federation of American Scientists. The purpose of the series is to stimulate and inform debate on current science and security policy issues. Copies of this and previous papers can be obtained by contacting the FAS at 202-546-3300 or by visiting our website: www.fas.org. Photo: Vannevar Bush, who advised Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry Truman on critical decisions in World War II. Courtesy of MIT Museum. Board of Sponsors Board of Directors (Partial List) Tara O’Toole * Sidney Altman * H. Gobind Khorana Chair * Philip W. Anderson * Arthur Kornberg * Kenneth J. Arrow * Edwin G. Krebs Steven Weinberg * Julius Axelrod * Willis E. Lamb Vice Chair * David Baltimore * Leon Lederman * Baruj Benacerraf * Edward Lewis Jonathan Silver * Paul Berg * William N. Lipscomb Secretary-Treasurer * Hans A. Bethe Jessica T. Mathews * J. Michael Bishop Roy Menninger Henry Kelly * Nicolaas Matthew S. Meselson President Bloembergen * Mario Molina * Norman Borlaug Philip Morrison * Paul Boyer Stephen S. Morse Ann Pitts Carter * Ferid Murad Rosina Bierbaum * Owen Chamberlain * Joseph E. Murray Morris Cohen Franklin A. Neva Francois Castaing * Stanley Cohen * Marshall Nirenberg David Foster Mildred Cohn * Douglas D. Osheroff Richard Garwin * Leon N. Cooper * Arno A. Penzias * E. J. Corey * Martin L. Perl Lawrence Grossman * James Cronin George Rathjens Eamon Kelly * Johann Deisenhofer * Burton Richter Jane Owen Ann Druyan * Richard J. Roberts * Renato Dulbecco * J. Robert Schrieffer Kumar Patel Paul R. Ehrlich Andrew Sessler Judith Reppy George Field * Phillip A. Sharp Art Rosenfeld * Val L. Fitch * K. Barry Sharpless Shankar Sastry * Jerome I. Friedman George A. Silver * Robert Furchgott * Richard E. Smalley Maxine Savitz John Kenneth * Robert M. Solow Galbraith Gregory Simon * Jack Steinberger * Riccardo Giacconi Richard Wald * Joseph Stiglitz * Walter Gilbert * Henry Taube * Donald Glaser * Daniel Tsui Ex officio: * Sheldon L. Glashow * Charles H. Townes Marvin L. Goldberger Carl Kaysen Frank von Hippel * Joseph L. Goldstein Robert A. Weinberg Robert Solow * Roger C. L. Guillemin Myron Wegman * Herbert A. Hauptman Frank von Hippel * Steven Weinberg * Dudley R. Herschbach * Torsten N. Wiesel * Roald Hoffmann Alfred Yankauer John P. Holdren Herbert F. York * David H. Hubel * Jerome Karle * Nobel Laureate Carl Kaysen Flying Blind: The Rise, Fall, and Possible Resurrection of Science Policy Advice in the United States Henry Kelly, Ivan Oelrich, Steven Aftergood, Benn H.Tannenbaum Occasional Paper No. 2 December 2004 About the Authors Henry Kelly is the President of the Federation of American Scientists. Trained as a physi- cist, he held senior positions in the Office of Technology Assessment and the Office of Science and Technology Policy. Ivan Oelrich is the Director of the Strategic Security Project at FAS. He is a physicist whose principal career was as an analyst at the Institute for Defense Analyses before coming to FAS. Steven Aftergood, an electrical engineer by train- ing, specializes in government information policy and directs the FAS Project on Government Secrecy. Benn H. Tannebaum is Senior Research Analyst in the Strategic Security Project. He has a PhD in physics and has been a AAAS Congressional Science Fellow. Stephanie Loranger, FAS Biology Issues Director, helped craft our case study on stem cell research. The responsibility for this report rests solely with the authors. Acknowledgements We are indebted to the many people who provided information and insights on which this report is based. These include: Congressman Rush Holt D. Allan Bromley, former Presidential Science Advisor John Gibbons, former Presidential Science Advisor Neal Lane, former Presidential Science Advisor Alan Leshner, CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science William Colglazier, Executive Officer of the National Academy of Sciences Peter Blair, Executive Director of the Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council Philip Smith, former Executive Officer of the National Academy of Sciences Norman Neureiter, former Science and Technology Advisor to the Secretary of State Joseph Michels, Director for Research Initiatives at the Materials Institute at Princeton University. We also spoke with representatives of the American Physical Society, the American Astronomical Society, the American Society for Cell Biology, the University of California, and many Democratic and Republican House and Senate staffers. Finally, we are indebted to Lee and Amy Fikes who are committed to honesty in science. Occasional Paper No. 2 December 2004 www.fas.org TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary . 1 Introduction . 5 1.1 Why Are Organizations Dedicated to Science and Technology Advice Important? . 7 1.2 The Clients for Science and Technology Advice . 10 1.3 Methodology . 11 1.4 Organization of the Report. 11 Section 2: Case Studies . 13 2.1 Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MBTE) . 13 2.2 Stem Cells . 19 Section 3: The Current State of Science Advice . 27 3.1 Advice to the President . 27 3.1.1 Office of Science and Technology Policy. 28 3.1.2 National Science and Technology Council . 31 3.1.3 President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology . 34 3.1.4The Critical Technologies Institute. 34 3.1.5 The National Science Board. 35 3.1.6 Other Advisory Systems: Securities and Exchange Commission's Office of Economic Analysis . 36 3.2 Advice to Congress . 37 3.2.1 Office of Technology Assessment. 38 3.2.2 Congressional Research Service. 39 3.2.3 Government Accountability Office (formerly the General Accounting Office) . 40 3.2.4 Congressional Budget Office . 41 3.3 The National Academies . 42 iv | Federation of American Scientists TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 4: Options for the Executive Branch . 45 4.1 Strengthen the Private Advice Provided to the President. 45 4.1.1 Create a Permanent National Science and Technology Council. 46 4.1.2 Provide for a Permanent Staff . 46 4.1.3 Make the Science Advisor's Office a Formal Part of the National Security Council and Other White House Offices . 47 4.1.4 Strengthen PCAST. 47 4.1.5 Create a Formal Process for Crafting and Reviewing a Government- Wide Science and Technology Budget. 47 4.2 Strengthen the Public Role of OSTP. 48 4.2.1 Define the Role of the Four Senate Confirmed Positions for Associate Directors . 48 4.2.2 Ensure a Strong Professional Staff and Budget . 48 4.2.3 Redefine the President's Council of Advisors for Science and Technology to Give it Greater Independent Authority. 49 4.2.4 Create a Regular, Independent, External Review of Federal R&D Activities . 49 Section 5: Options for the Legislative Branch. 51 5.1 Restart OTA . 51 5.2 Create a New Science and Technology Analysis Function within GAO . 53 5.3 Encourage Privately Supported Analytical Groups Focused on Congressional Decisions . 55 5.4 Strengthen Protection for Whistleblowers . 56 5.5 Strengthen the Congressional Process . 56 5.5.1 Include Science and Technology in Congress' Early Organizational Meetings . 57 5.5.2 Make Review of the Science and Technology Budget as a Whole an Integral Part of the Appropriations Process . 57 Flying Blind: The Rise, Fall and Possible Resurrection of Science Policy Advice in the US | v TABLE OF CONTENTS 5.5.3 Other Process Improvements . 58 5.5.3.1 Create or Expand CRS Fellowships. 58 5.5.3.2 Provide Quarterly Staff Training Seminar Series. 58 5.5.3.3 Increase Participation in Policy Debates by Scientific Societies. 59 5.5.3.4 Increase Participation of Individual Scientists . 60 Section 6: Options to Increase Scientific Openness and Access to Information61 6.1 Fundamental Classification Policy Review . 62 6.2 Proposal: Limit Controls on Unclassified Scientific Information . 62 6.3 Create New Internal Checks on Secrecy . 63 6.4 Adopt an Affirmative Disclosure Policy . 64 6.4.1 Mandate Routine Publication of Advisory Committee Reports . 64 6.4.2 Direct Agencies to Proactively Disclose Deliberative Records when Possible . 65 Appendices.
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