1 ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 2 ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter I–PREFACE FOREWORD 7 INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 CHAPTER II - ASEAN PRINCIPLES, VISION AND GOALS ON REGIONAL PEACE, SECURITY AND STABILITY 11 CHAPTER III - SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE REGION AND NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY POLICIES BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 21 CAMBODIA 27 INDONESIA 33 LAO PDR 45 MALAYSIA 49 MYANMAR 55 PHILIPINE 59 SINGAPORE 65 THAILAND 71 VIETNAM 79 CHAPTER IV - FUTURE TRENDS A REGIONAL SETTING 83 ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 4 ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 5 CHAPTER I Preface ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 6 ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 7 FOREWORD DATO’ SRI ANIFAH AMAN Minister of Foreign Affairs Malaysia On behalf of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, I am pleased to present the Second Edition of the ASEAN Security Outlook. Inaugurated in 2013, the publication of this report is intended to complement the current annually- released ASEAN Regional Forum Security Outlook. This is done with a view to promoting greater transparency, confidence and understanding of regional defence policies and security perceptions. The contributions by ASEAN Member States to this report reflects their determination to develop constructive dialogue and consultation on political and security issues of common interest and concerns in this region. Such an exchange of views is essential in strengthening mutual understanding and trust among countries in the region and beyond. This report offers many useful experience and lessons for ASEAN Member States to strengthen their capacities and confidence-building measures in addressing the emerging traditional and non- traditional security challenges. Drawing from these experience and lessons, I am confident that ASEAN Member States could benefit greatly from the various security initiatives and approaches highlighted in this report. This would eventually lead to more constructive efforts towards promoting peace, security and stability in this region. Towards this end, allow me to express my deep gratitude and appreciation to all ASEAN Member States for their contributions to this publication. ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 8 ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 INTRODUCTION AND 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone established ASEAN Ministerial Treaty (SEANWFZ), the 2002 Meeting on Drugs (AMMD) Declaration on the Conduct have been beneficial. Engaging of Parties in the South China external partners in some Sea (DOC) and the 2008 ASEAN of these mechanisms have Charter, which underscore enabled ASEAN to collaborate ASEAN’s commitment to create for mutual benefit while a peaceful and prosperous building trust and confidence community of nations. Since among the countries involved. 2009, this commitment has been guided by the ASEAN The establishment of the Political-Security Community ASEAN Community by the (APSC) Blueprint which end of the year would enable provides a roadmap and ASEAN to become a more timetable to establish the robust grouping and would The ASEAN Security APSC by 2015. ensure ASEAN’s leadership Outlook 2015 (ASO 2015) role in the evolving regional represents continuing In terms of security concerns architecture. In this context, efforts by ASEAN Member in the region, the Member ASEAN continues to emphasise States towards promoting States acknowledge that the importance of upholding the greater transparency and ASEAN’s collective efforts principle of ASEAN centrality understanding of each other’s have contributed to a stable, and ASEAN unity particularly in defence policy as well as peaceful and secure South its engagement with external perspectives on the regional East Asia region although partners through the existing security environment since the traditional and non-traditional ASEAN-led mechanisms. With publication of the inaugural security challenges continue to the realisation of the ASEAN ASO in 2013. This compilation pose significant risks and may Community by the end of 2015, highlights each ASEAN Member threaten the region’s economic ASEAN is set to play a more State’s immediate security growth and prosperity. active and constructive role in concerns, its national defence Similarly, ASEAN should be global affairs and at the same and security policies, and its mindful of the interactions time maintain its centrality. contributions to promote between major powers in the peace, security and stability region which, if not carefully It is my sincere hope that in the region. It also outlines managed, could undermine this publication would provide ASEAN’s collective and ASEAN’s achievements and valuable insights into ASEAN’s cooperative efforts in achieving accomplishments over the policies and perspectives on its goals and objectives in the years. defence and security not only political and security fields. for the present but also for ASEAN’s various security the future. It would also be The ASO 2015 makes related mechanisms to an important reference for all reference to seminal historical address these security those who are keenly watching instruments, such as the 1971 challenges such as the ASEAN developments in the region. Zone of Peace, Freedom and Regional Forum (ARF), the Neutrality (ZOPFAN), the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on 1976 Treaty of Amity and Transnational Crime (AMMTC), H.E Le Luong Minh Cooperation in Southeast Asia the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Secretary- General (TAC), the 1995 Southeast Asian Meeting (ADMM) and the newly ASEAN Secretariat ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 10 ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 11 CHAPTER II ASEAN Principles, Vision and Goals on Regional Peace, Security and Stability ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 12 ASEAN PRINCIPLES, VISION AND GOALS ON REGIONAL PEACE, SECURITY AND STABILITY INTRODUCTION The publication of the ASEAN Security Outlook aims to promote greater transparency and understanding of each ASEAN Member States’ defence policy and security situation in the region. This is the second publication of the ASEAN Security Outlook, and is part of the implementation of one of the action lines of the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) Blueprint which calls for the development of an ASEAN Security Outlook. This chapter lays the foundation of the ASEAN The Bangkok Declaration defines the goals as Security Outlook by providing an overview of well as the activities of the organisation into ASEAN’s contribution to regional peace, security three objectives: and stability based on the commitment contained • To promote the economic, social and cultural in various ASEAN documents and mechanisms. development of the region through cooperative The first section of this chapter focuses on the programs. milestone political documents of ASEAN, while • To safeguard the political and economic the second part looks at the security cooperation stability of the region against big power in ASEAN. rivalry. • To serve as a forum for the resolution of CHAPTER II. A - ASEAN PRINCIPLES, VISION intra-regional differences. AND GOALS ON REGIONAL PEACE, SECURITY AND STABILITY BASED ON EXISTING ASEAN Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) DOCUMENTS Political and security cooperation is indeed vital for ASEAN Member States. In 1971, the Zone of Desiring to establish a firm foundation for Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) was common action to promote regional cooperation signed, with the aim of ensuring the region’s in Southeast Asia in the spirit of equality and freedom from any form or manner of interference partnership, and thereby contribute towards by outside powers. ZOPFAN is also aimed at peace, progress and prosperity in the region, broadening the areas of cooperation that would five countries signed the ASEAN Declaration contribute to the strength, solidarity and closer (Bangkok Declaration) on 8 August 1967. This relations among the Member States. The ZOPFAN led to the establishment of the Association of was the first document that set ASEAN’s vision Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), built based on towards security cooperation in the region. mutual respect and understanding to promote closer cooperation among its Member States. Nine years after the establishment of ASEAN, Since its establishment in 1967, ASEAN has the Leaders of ASEAN Member States held placed the promotion of regional peace and their first Summit on 24 February 1976, in Bali, security at the forefront of its endeavours. Indonesia. They signed three major documents which have gradually shaped the political security landscape of the region. These were the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), the Declaration of ASEAN Concord and the Agreement on the Establishment of the ASEAN Secretariat. ASEAN SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast more effectively the growing interest of non- 13 Asia (TAC) ASEAN Member States to accede to the TAC. ASEAN’s norms and values continue to receive To date, there are 32 High Contracting Parties international recognition through the key to the TAC. Among the 22 non-ASEAN Member instruments initiated by ASEAN Member States, States are the five permanent members of namely the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation the UNSC, Brazil (the first country to accede in Southeast Asia (TAC). In the area of shaping to the TAC) and the European Union (the only and sharing of norms, the Treaty of Amity of High Contracting Party which is a regional Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) continues organisation). The latest signatory to the TAC to be the main political instrument governing is Norway on 30 June 2013.