NIDS East Asian Strategic Review 2021

Summary The Russian Federation, which newly emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union in December 1991, governed the nation with the Federal Constitution established in December 1993. The Boris Yeltsin administration in the 1990s was characterized by chaotic socioeconomic conditions, an unstable political order, and increasingly centrifugal federal-regional relations. On the other hand, the administration inaugurated in May 2000 opted for “power vertical,” executed large- scale political reform, including of the federal system, and worked to stabilize the constitutional system. In this context, problems concerning the Rights and Freedoms of Human and Citizen guaranteed in Chapter 2 of the 1993 Constitution have emerged against the backdrop of strengthened measures to combat terrorism and extremism and legal restraints on the mass media. These problems have become the focus of Russian politics, particularly in recent years. The process of amending the 1993 Constitution, which began in earnest at the beginning of 2020, has built the basic mechanisms for maintaining the Putin regime. On the other hand, voices of citizens calling for change also grew, ushering Russian society into a period of change. The amendments to the Constitution clarified a prohibition on electing a president three times, but because a provision was established stating that previous terms of incumbent or former presidents are not counted, President Putin and , deputy chairman of the Security Council, are able to run in the next presidential election under this system. In this chapter, we focus on Russian Constitutional reforms to derive suggestions about the political regime and the Post-Putin issue. Issues of arms control between the United States and are attracting international interest. These include the A military parade to termination of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) commemorate the Treaty and the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Chapter 5 75th anniversary of Treaty (New START). Moreover, Russia-Europe relations have victory over Nazi entered a more difficult phase due to the attempted murder by Germany in World poisoning of opposition leader Aleksei Navalny. War II, held on June Amid the global spread of the novel coronavirus disease Russia 24, 2020 in Red (COVID-19), the Russian military has taken on new roles, including, Square, for example, the construction of multifunctional medical centers, (Xinhua News disinfection operations by the nuclear, chemical and biological The Post-Putin Issue and Agency/Kyodo protection troops, and emergency assistance to Italy and Changes in the 1993 Constitutional System News Images) Serbia. Equipment upgrades and posture strengthening by the military have continued to progress, military cooperation was strengthened through the large-scale exercises Kavkaz 2020, and HASEGAWA Takeyuki (Lead author, Sections 1 and 2) moves to expand arms exports to African countries were also seen. SAKAGUCHI Yoshiaki (Section 3)

152 153 Chapter 5 Russia 155

Composed of 75 members with Andrey Klishas, chair of the CommitteeFederation Council Constitutional on Legislation and State Building, Pavel Vladimirovich Krasheninnikov, chairof the Committee on State Building and Legislation,and Talia Khabrieva, director of the Institute of LegislationComparative and Law under the Government of the Russian In the second reading preparatory stage (from February 14 onwards), major amendments were proposed, including a “presidential terms reset provision” for incumbent or formerpresidents. After the thirdthe amendments reading, sent were to the Federal Assembly’s Federal Council (Upper House) on March and 11 were passed the same day. amendments bill.amendments President Putin signed and promulgated the bill, then made an Constitutionalinquiry the to Court its constitutionality. regarding Two days later, on March 16, the Constitutional Court recognizedits constitutionality. Initially, April 22 was set as the date ofthe vote, but due to therapid spread of COVID-19, it was decided to postpone the date of the vote. Average voter turnout nationwide was 67.97%, and 77.92%people of the voted in favor of the amendments. following day, January 16. Medvedev took up the position of deputy chairman of the Security Council. Federation, as the joint representatives. The firstheld meeting at a presidential was residence the following day, January 16. On March 12 and March 13, all of the (regional) Dumas of the federalsubjects of Russia approved the constitutional President Putin proposed constitutional amendments,a provision including for a prohibition on electing a president three times. Head of the Mishustin was proposed to the State Duma (Lower House) as a candidate to be the next prime minister, and officially took up the position on the ). Due). to the spread inside COVID-19 Russia, of the

en masse the Working Group to draft proposals the constitutional the LowerHouse by Annual address to the Federal Assembly by the president for amending the The date of theall- subjects of Russia Sending of the Submission of amendments bill to amendments tobill the of the Medvedev all-Russian vote Constitution law judgment and of constitutional constitutionality by the Constitutional Court COVID-19 cabinet Russian vote is postponed due to Establishment of of Establishment Dumas of the federal Resignation President PutinPresident Promulgation of the the of Implementation Duma RF, “SOZD:Duma Zakonoproekt RF, No. Konstitutsionnyi 885214-7”; marta “16 sud RF, 2020 goda Konstitutsionnyi Sud RF opublikoval Zakliuchenie po zaprosu Prezidenta RF” (March 2020); 16, RBK, July 3, 2020. Compiled by the author based on Prezident Rossii, “Sobytiia”; Gosudarstvennaia March 11 March 14 March 25 July 1 January 20 January 15 vserossiiskoe golosovanie Sources: Table 5.1. The constitutionalTable 5.1. amendment process (January to July 2020) regarding its constitutionality and boldly implementing an all-Russian vote ( date the of was vote postponed from April and 22 to the July 1, amendments to the Constitution were established a majority by The vote. essencethe of amendments

2

vsenarodnoe vsenarodnoe During that same 1 and other top officials in the 3 , and working a group to draft ) to Chapter 3 to Chapter the 8 of Constitution and The latter contain provisions stipulating human 4 ) to the other chapters the of Constitution (Chapter popravka peresmotr the Inauguration of a New Cabinet of a New the Inauguration The Constitutional Amendment Process and Process Amendment The Constitutional ). Although). this time the amendments to the Constitution do not 1. Transformation of the Constitutional System: Constitutional of the Transformation 1.

InConstitution, the 1993 there are majordifferences in the procedures for day, the Medvedevday, cabinet resigned masse en amendments to the Constitution was established instruction by the of president. In light the of fact thatin recent years chairman Viacheslav Volodin, the of State Duma, thehouse the lower of Federal Assembly, 154 (1) The Essence of the 2020 Amendments and the Post-Putin Issue Post-Putin the and Amendments 2020 the of Essence The (1) In his annual address to theFederal Assembly on January 2020, President 15, Putin proposed major amendments Constitution. to the1993 making revisions ( administration offered have many statements and comments about constitutional problems, can it be concluded that elaborate scenarios recent for amendments to the Constitution were formulated in the administrative core. As shown in Table the amendment process5.1, progressed in an extremely short period time, of but difficultwas sufficientthat conclude it to discussionsregarding constitutional the amendments were among held Russian citizens. That said, as will bediscussed the elaborately preparedbelow, scenarios the of constitutional amendments had to be reshaped because directly COVID-19 affected the political situation. making amendments ( 1, Chapter1, 2, and Chapter 9). rightsguarantees, the separation powers, of and proceduresamending for or revising the Constitution, and their procedural hurdles are higher compared with the former chapters. example, they For include the convening a Constitutional of Assembly and the implementation a national of referendum ( golosovanie require implementation a national of referendum, PresidentPutin endeavored to guarantee its legitimacy seeking by the judgment the of Constitutional Court Chapter 5 Russia 157 It is likely It that patriotic 5 the conservative social policies of 6 Certain changes been have added tothe authority the of 7 Secondly, thereSecondly, are the amendments to the Constitution pertaining to the Moreover, Article Moreover, 72, which stipulates the matters under the joint jurisdiction the Putin administration aroused have criticism from Western countries and international human rights groups. The new provisions include inherent problems pertaining to human rights guarantees, and their consistency with the foundations Constitution theof 1993 thatrequire “constitutionalrevision” procedures (the provisionsin Chapter Chapter 1, 2, and Chapter will 9) undoubtedly be the focus going forward. The conservative tendencies the of administration, which have grown stronger in recent years, are vividly reflected inIn many the of added parts the amended (the sections new the of Constitution), the new Constitution. Constitution presents a view of the nation in conflict with the basicConstitution, the of 1993 principlessymbolized human by rights protection and political plurality. politicalregime. the scope the of prohibition, the very factthat such provisions were newly established strongly the shows diplomatic stancethe of Putin administration, and it is difficult to interpret this text only context.Furthermore, in paragraph terms Article3 stipulates 67.1, thatthe state of “honors the domestic political the memory defenders of the of Fatherland and protects historical truth,” highlighting the issue which historical of II. Article perception War World 67.1, of generally includes conservative content, emphasizes II, the War results World of specifically, “the significance of the people’s heroismagainst in defending the Fatherland,” the backdropcountry’s status of as a permanent the member of the United basic Nations Security Council, principle theone of guarantors the of post-war international in order. Russia’s foreign policy of protecting the policies will be promoted further going forward, through historyeducation and other methods, based on these kinds provisions of in the Constitution. theof federal government and the federal subjects Russia, of such as republics and oblasts, has incorporated the “protection the of institution marriage of as the union a man of and Starting a woman.” with the establishment the of so-called Law Prohibiting HomosexualPropaganda 2013, of

- s ’

) were from excluded kaisetsu sekai kenposhu dai-gohan

demarkatsiya 65, no. 5 (2020), 80–105; Mizoguchi Shuhei, Chapter 3.structure Federal ) and demarcation ( NIS Business NIS Monthly & Russia Kommentarii k Konstitutsii Rossiiskoi Federatsii 2-e izdanie (Moskva: Paragraph 4 Paragraph 3 Paragraph 2 Paragraph 2.1 delimitatsiya heroism in defending theheroism Fatherland in permitted. not be shall Children are the most important state policy prioritycreate in Russia. conditions The state that contribute should to the comprehensiveand spiritual, physical development moral, intellectual of children, fostering patriotism,respect civic for elders. engagement, The state, and giving priority to family-basedobligations care, of a parent shall undertake with respect the to children left without guardianship. The matters under the joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federationsubjects of Russia and the federal are as follows. [Omitted] zh.1) Protectionfatherhood of families, and children; motherhood, protection of the institutionman and a woman; of marriage the creation as the union of of conditions a for appropriate nurturingthe home, of and children for adult in children to fulfil their obligations to lookafter their parents. historically developed state unity while preservinggave us the ideals, memory belief of ancestors in God and continuity who in the development of the Russian state. The Russian Federation guarantees thatit will honor the memoryFatherland of defenders and protect of the historical truth. Diminishing the significance of the people ry of the Russian Federation and incitement to such actions shall not be permitted. The Russian Federation, united by a thousand years of history, recognizes the The Russian Federation ensures protection of its sovereigntyActions (except and territorial for delimitation, integrity. demarcation, re-demarcationthe Russian Federation of the state with border of bordering states) aimed at removing a part of the territo Provisions concerning territory and patriotic/conservative concerning territory Provisions aspects in (excerpts) amendments the 2020 constitutional [Constitutions of Nations, 5th Edition], eds. Shiyake Masanori and Tsujimura Miyoko (Tokyo: Sanseido, 2020), 281–341. Rossiiskoi Federatsii novaia redaktsiia s popravkami3-e izdanie Prospekt, (Moskva: 2021); Prospekt, 2020); Ueno Toshihiko, “Roshia ni okeru 2020 nen no kenpo shusei wo in amendments constitutional 2020 the regarding [Issues shomondai” meguru Russia], “Roshia renpo” [Russian Federation], in Shin Compiled by the author based on E.Iu. Barkhatova, Konstitutsii k Kommentarii

Firstly, thereFirstly, is the establishment new conservative of 5.2). provisions (Table Article 72 Article 67.1 Article 67 156 Sources: Table 5.2. 5.2. Table In Article Chapter of 67 the 3, chapter which stipulates the federal structure, the transfer territory of and actions directed toward the transfer territory of of the Russian Federation were prohibited in paragraph Although boundary 2.1. delimitation ( is as follows. Chapter 5 Russia 159 In summary, 11 As a result, executive 10 President Putin visiting a voting station in Moscow (TASS/ Kyodo) Due to 9 terms years to 12 consisting a total of of two terms, which clarified The presidential term of office has been changed from 12 years consisting of two two of consisting years 12 from changed been has office term of presidential The Therecent amendments to the Constitution were implemented ahead of head the of executive body has become clearer. Previously, in the federal constitutional lawAbout Government “Government (hereinafter, Act”), the federal government waspositioned as the “supreme body.” executive GovernmentAct revisions arising from the amendments to the Constitution,however, status has beenits changed to an “executive body as a systempublic power.” of power is exercised under the general command the of president. Combined with the authority of the president to remove the prime minister from office,we can conclude that presidential authority has been strengthened. consecutive the prohibition on being elected three times. during However, the deliberation process in the Lower House, a “presidential terms reset provision” that excludes incumbent or former presidents from the scope this of stipulation was introduced while amending the Constitution, thereby enabling President Putin and Deputy Chairman the of Security Council Medvedev to run in the next presidential election under the new system. In addition, the system guaranteeing the status of the president was strengthened, including immunity from arrest after leaving the presidency and status as a senator (Upper House member) for life. while the authority the of Federal Assembly was partially expanded, the authority of the president was also substantially strengthened, thus maintaining Russia’s strong presidential system, or so-called “super-presidentialism.” the expiration of President Putin’s term of office in 2024 and in the context

8

Moreover, in the light of the fact that the president’s authority thefactthatthepresident’s commandinthelightof to Moreover, the Furthermore, the system was changed so that the president appoints the heads Previously, thePreviously, appointment the of directors paramilitary of and intelligence agencies not included in the cabinet, such as the (Federal’naia Sluzhba Bezopasnosti: FSB) and the Foreign Intelligence Service (Sluzhba VneshneyRazvedki: wasSVR), mattera under jurisdiction the exclusive of the president. The recent system change has enabled the Upper House to be ininvolved the personnel policies the of paramilitary and intelligence agencies, while eliminating the the involvement of Lower House in the appointment of major cabinet ministers such as the defense minister, internal affairs minister, and foreign affairs minister. federalgovernment is clearly stated in Article the status 83, the of president as 158 of theof ministries and agencies in charge national of defense, internal affairs, foreign affairs, intelligence, and other aspects national of security policy after consultation withthe Federal Council, the upper house the of Federal Assembly. president and the Federal whileAssembly, the broad framework semi- of presidentialism is maintained. The president has been granted the right to remove primethe chairman minister) the government from (the office and the to of right commandthe federalgovernment, while the authority theof Federal Assembly in federal government formation procedures (appointing cabinet ministers, etc.) was also strengthened. appointment Previously, the of and federal ministers after the appointment the of prime minister was substantially a matter under jurisdiction the exclusive the of president and the prime minister. With the amendments to the Constitution, the system appointing of the deputy prime minister and federal ministers was changed so that the prime minister proposewould candidates to the Lower House, and the president appoint would only the candidates that the Lower House has approved. On the other hand, in the case thatthe Lower House refuses to approvea candidate three times, the president can dissolve the Lower House under certain conditions. Therefore, there is no change to the major structure:the ruling which bloc supports the president defines president–parliament relations. Chapter 5 Russia 161 Appointment Furthermore, 13 14 15 The current Putin administration 16 17 of the of cabinet, the post deputy of chairman , who have supported, who have the Putinadministration many over years since Along with the resignation masse en Subsequently, inJuly 2020, the Interdepartmental Commission the of siloviki of the of SecurityCouncil was created allowing Medvedev, for him to continue to remain at Along the with core power. of the establishment the of new deputy partiallynewchairman securityalsothethe amended.waspost,Under legislation Security Councilregulation, the deputy chairman is granted certain authority, including the power to supervise the implementation presidential of decrees, etc., and power to issue orders in the nationalsecurity domain. 2000,has been characterized byossification and increasingly elderly appointees. of is advancing policies—and the building the of implementation structures for those policies—in order to accelerate the resources development of and energy as a matter importance of national for security, beginning with the Northern Sea Route and Arctic 2 project. example, LNG in For the February Ministry 2019, for theDevelopment of Russian East Far was reorganized into the Ministry the for theDevelopment of Russian East Far and Arctic, and in October 2020, a policy document titled Strategy for Developing the Russian Arctic Zone and Ensuring National Security was until approved. 2035 a secretariat consisting of five topofficials (one head of the secretariat and four was established aides) under the deputy chairman, which supports the activities After Medvedev. of his appointment, Deputy Chairman Medvedev his showed diplomatic presence holding by meetings on economic and security cooperation with the leader Kyrgyzstan of in February and the leader Kazakhstan of in March. In addition, he is stillresponsible practical for matters in domestic affairs to some extent, even after resigning as prime minister. example, he presided For the over cabinet-level meetings countermeasures. on COVID-19 and intelligence ministries/agencies were retained in their posts. Security Council on Protecting National Interests in the Arctic (hereinafter, “Security CouncilArctic Commission”) was established with Deputy Chairman Medvedevas its chair and cabinet-level ministers, including the defense minister and foreign minister,as members. In the new cabinet, ministers 14 12 (officials of the military or security agencies), Inauguration of the New Mishustin Cabinet and Transformation of of Transformation and Cabinet Mishustin New the of Inauguration the Administrative Core

Whereas is it important to pay attention to core the of members moves of including thedeputy prime ministers,the minister economic of development, and the minister digital of development, communications and mass media were newly appointed,while theheads the of national defense, internal affairs, foreign affairs, 160 In January 2020, a new cabinet led Mikhail by Mishustin was inaugurated, replacing former prime minister Prime Medvedev. Minister Mishustin was a 54-year-oldMoscow-born expert in economics and taxationwho served as the head the of Federal Service Taxation from 2010. (2)  (2) the current regime—not only President Putin and Deputy Chairman the of Security Council who are both Medvedev, to able run in the next presidential election, butalso powerfullocal governors—anticipating a scenario in which an unknown figure assumes the position of supreme poweras was the is case with Putin also in the If the mid-1990s. nextpresident inherits necessary, the core policies implemented since 2000, important elements management of of the administration will undoubtably be the ability to manage federal–regionalrelations, relations with the siloviki andstrong leadershipon the publicstage, including summitdiplomacy and dialogue with Russian citizens. of growingof interestin the Post-Putin issue, and the aforementioned system changes further have increased the uncertainty in Russian politics. Regarding the prospects Russian for politics from 2024 onwards, under the current system, the following scenarios can be anticipated: a new Putin (i) administration, his fifth term in total, will be inaugurated as a resultof Putinpresidential electionrunning(this scenarioincludes Putin in resigning the partway next through his (ii) term Putinoffice); of will be entitled a to lifetime seat a as senator, a position that also comes with immunity from prosecution; and (iii) Putin will take up a position as the headanother of institution, example, for as the prime minister or the chairman the of . Chapter 5 Russia 163 This had 24 a transport operation the by 23 The Putin Administration Faces the Need for COVID-19 Explosion Domestic and Aid Emergency Foreign Countermeasures: Infectionsof On the other hand, from late March 2020 onwards, the number of confirmed administration was anticipated. Despite this, the party put solid battle. up a In late March situation 2020, the COVID-19 rapidly worsened in Russia. President Putin responded giving by a televised address to the people calling their for cooperation with infection countermeasures and outlined emergency measures in accordance with Article the 80 of Constitution, which stipulates the wide- five the designating included measures These president. the of authority ranging days from March to 30 April3 as non-working days in with full However, pay. the early stages the of pandemic at the beginning 2020, because of the number of people confirmed to be infected emergency inRussia was providing on small focused compared efforts to China and administration’s the countries, Western assistance to foreign countries such as Italy, Serbia, and the United States. For example, after the telephone conversation between Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte Italy of and President Putin on March 21, (3)  (3) Russian Aerospace Forces was commenced on the March following day, 22 (see Section details). The 3 for operation was named and “From Russia With Love,” transportscenes IL-76 of aircraft loaded with medicalsupplies and personnel landing one after another at Pratica di Mare Air Base on the outskirts of Rome wereactively publicized through socialmedia and other mediums. the impact dispatching of Russian military aircraft to a major member country theof North Atlantic Treaty Organization and demonstrated (NATO), to Russia and the the world high mobility overseas of operations the by Russian military governingand Russia’s style characterized by rapid decision-making and policy implementation. casesinfection of increased rapidlyin Russia,exceeding cumulativea total three of million peopleDecember,as of the fourth highest number in the

21 22 Inthe elections for while new political 19 20 forces, has it to yet be seen The division roles betweenof the 18

Meanwhile, the State Commission Arctic for Development (hereinafter, “State Furthermore, in the nationwide local elections on September held 2020, 13, governors federal of subjects incumbents Russia, of 18 and acting governors won (United Russia party: 12; independent: 5; Liberal Democratic Party: 1). In the Duma elections, as well, United Russia came out on top, As these political parties gained seats in the Dumas the of federal subjects of Russia, they can participate in the Lower House election planned to be in held Septemberwithout collecting 2021 signatures, in accordance protests with federal law. prolonged the ratings, approval administration’s the of decline the With in Khabarovsk, and other problems, a tough election campaignthe for Putin 162 parties also made strides. gained People New seats in Novosibirsk, Kaluga, Ryazan, and Kostroma oblasts. Truth For gained seats in Ryazan oblast, and Green Alternative gained seats in the Komi Republic and Chelyabinsk oblast. Commission”), chaired Yury by deputy Trutnev, prime minister and presidential plenipotentiary to the envoy Eastern Far Federal District, and comprised of regional governors and vice-ministers, has been established in the federal governmentled the by prime minister. Security Council Arctic Commission and the State Commission is a problem, but given the ranks the of commission members and the fact that Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev has been appointed vice-chair the of Security Council Arctic Commission, is it likely that the Security Council Arctic Commission led Medvedevby exercises leadership in In the the execution policy. Security of Council, in which the most of members are siloviki whether Deputy Chairman who has served Medvedev, as both president and prime minister, will continue propping to the play of role up the administration cannot our influence.political take we hisexpand Therefore, to ways for searchor eyes off the political trends in the Kremlin when considering the Post-Putin issue. theelections governorsfor federal of subjects Russia, of Duma elections, local government Duma elections, and State Duma (Lower by-elections House) were held, during which measures to prevent the spread were taken, COVID-19 of including theestablishment twoof to three daysvoting. for Chapter 5 Russia 165 which was 32 and thesafety 27 Russia is seen to be 30 Moreover, on October a Moreover, 13, 28 This document examines the outcomes 31 (hereinafter, Decree”), “July a policy document Russian-produced vaccines are planned to be supplied to more 29 Furthermore, in July 2020, On the National Development Goals of the than10 countries, including India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. received a registration certificate from the Ministryof Health, and effectiveness this of Russian-produced vaccine was promoted domestically and overseas. example, images For werereleased Sergei of Shoigu, defense minister, receiving the vaccinein September. second domestically produced vaccine, EpiVacCorona, received a registration commenced vaccine this of distribution that reported been has it and certificate, in January 2021. of theof previous version, On National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Russian Decree”), “May Federation through (hereinafter, to 2024 approved in May 2018, and aimsapproved a course in for May 2018, correction given the present social and economic situations. It quantifies the prioritygoals of social and economic policy based on fivepillars, including preservationof the population, the health and welfare the of people, a comfortable and safeenvironment, and digital transformation.the At time the of inauguration his of administration in 2018, President Putin issued the May Decree to strongly promote the “modernization” theof economic structure, a long-standing issue, with a strong sense crisis of over lagging economic development. Nonetheless, the prolonged economic sanctions on Russia imposed Western by countries, combined with lockdowns due to the coronavirus catastrophe and the historical slump in crude oil prices, made have the road to achieving the goals set the out by July Decree steep. in Even the three- year federal budget law for 2021–2023 approved in December 2020, defense expenditure national is expected to remain atthree trillion rubles the for single and maintainedGDP) of (2.7% 3% in GDP of 2% rangefiscalthe to year 2021 of starting full-scale “vaccine diplomacy” through frameworks on which places it diplomatic importance, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. Russian Federation through 2030 stipulating the basic policy long-term for Russia’s social and economic policies, was approved a presidential by decree. Due to these and other factors, 26 Because social policy including public health is basically under the 25

In this first context, vaccine, theCOVID-19 on Augustworld’s Sputnik V, 11, The surge of COVID-19 infections in Russia had significant impact on the thePutin administration was forced to greatly revise its scenario 2020,which for had been based on amending or revising the Constitution and commemorating the anniversary75th the of victory in the war. political situation, as happened it to coincide with the timing the of establishment theof politicalcalendar the for amendments to the Constitutionafter the annual address to the Federal Assembly theby president in January 2020 and the inauguration the of new cabinet. The all-Russian on vote amendments to the Constitution planned April for 22 and the military parade to commemorate the anniversary75th victory of Nazi over Germany II planned War in for World May 9 were postponed, and a number cabinet of ministers and top government officials, including Prime Minister Mishustin and Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry were infected. Peskov, The economy slumped due to a historical fall in crude oil prices, and the administration’s approval rating hit a record 59% low of thefor two consecutive months April of and May. jurisdictionthe of federal government and because (cabinet), the authority of the federal government regardingemergency situations was strengthened by the April 1 revision the of Federal Law on the Protection the of Population and Territories from Emergency Situations Natural of and Character, Technogenic Prime Minister Mishustin, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova, and Mayor Moscow Sergeyof Sobyanin theplayed have central in role developing the countermeasures.COVID-19 On the other hand, the direct the involvement of Kremlin, including President Putin and Deputy Chairman the of Security Council among others,Medvedev, has been seen atcritical stages the of pandemic. Given that executive power is divided between the president and the federal government led the by prime(cabinet) minister, the general coordination mechanism for dealing with the situation—as well as federal–regional a relations, which centrifugal have nature—will undoubtedly countermeasures.COVID-19 be the focus of Russia’s long-term 164 world. Chapter 5 Russia 167 were approvedpresidential a by Although the expiration the of treaty has been 37 approved together with the Military Doctrine on 39 and diplomacy with Russia concerning the extendingproblem of 36 This documentis thought to be the successor documentto the non- 38 Regarding all other aspects of U.S.-Russia relations, if the Biden In this context, on June 2, 2020, the Basic Principles of State Policy of the This document comprises four chapters: (I) General Provisions; (II) Essence The conditions the for use nuclear of weapons presented in (III) mainly decree. avoided, there is an urgentneed to construct multilateral a arms control regime that puts the brakes on the arms race from a long-term perspective. administration strongly deploys value-based diplomacy that emphasizes human substantial build relationsdifficult to undoubtedlybewill it democracy, andrights withthe Putin administration, as has it been strengthening its conservative tendencies after the 2020 amendments to the Constitution. Deterrence Nuclear on Federation Russian the New START treaty became their firstprogressed, and was it policy announced that agreement issue. on extending the treaty was The process rapidly reached in a telephone conversation between the leaders of and the Russia on January 26, 2021. United States February 5, 2010. TheFebruary timing 2010. the of 5, approval the of document the by president and arms U.S.-Russia the of stalling the to related be may disclosure document’s the control and disarmament regime. of nuclear deterrence; (III) Conditions for the use of nuclear weapons; and (IV) andTasks functions federal of government authorities, other government bodies and organizations implementing for state policy on nuclear deterrence. states It that the legal foundation of these Basic Principles is the and international Federal Constitutiontreaties on defense and arms control ratifiedby thefederation (paragraph 6), but it also states specified that depending these on the external Basic and Principles internal factors may that influence be defense implementation further (paragraph 8). disclosed document Principles of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence Until 2020 presentedpolicy a agenda that places importance onmultilateral cooperation alliances,and

trending toward restraint. 33 2. Foreign Policies: 2. Foreign In a series of negotiations, the delegation of the United States 35 The Strategic Environment Surrounding Russia Surrounding The Strategic Environment The main themes the of working group meeting at the held July end of 34 Approval of the Basic Principles of State Policyof the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control

In the U.S.-Russia Strategic Security Dialogue held in Vienna on June 22, In 1979, duringIn 1979, the then Cold War, senator Joseph Biden of the United States 166 were reported to be space, nuclear doctrineand warheads, and transparency and inspections. Since the annexation Crimea of a pattern in March opposition 2014, of has become entrenched in relations between Russia issues and over the such West as unstableeasternsituationthein Ukraine economicsanctions.years,recentandIn the wavering the of arms control and disarmament regime has become the focus. With the expiration the of INF Treaty and in the August declaration2019 the by the Treaty, SkiesOpenwithdraw thefrom would it that 2020 May inStates United symbols theof arms controland disarmamentregime constructed fromthe end of periodthe War Cold to the post-Cold period War are being lost. 2020 with the participation Russian of deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov and Marshall Billingslea, the U.S. special presidential envoy for arms control, agreement was reachedto establish a working group on strategic stability issues. (1)  (1) in the 2022 and 2023 planned budgets, strongly called the for participation China of in the arms control regime, and also raised issues with subjecting new strategic weapons such as the hypersonic glide tovehicle new treaty restrictions and flaws in the current inspection system. made a visit to Moscow for talks period,first on War Cold thesinceyears many arms for Russia withdiplomacy in involved control. President Biden has been as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman and then as vice-president during the Barack Obama administration. The new Biden administration has Chapter 5 Russia 169 On the 44 and in response to this, the 45 and consistency among policy documents, 43 The nuclear forces occupied have a particularly 42 The German government determined that Navalny had been attacked using (2) The(2) Poisoning of Alexey Navalny and Russia-Europe Relations The attempted murder poisoning by Russian of opposition leader Navalny had a major impact on relations between Russia and due to the concerns West about democracy and political plurality in Russia and the use chemical of weapons prohibited under international treaties. In mid-August 2020, Navalny was visiting in Novosibirsk Siberia and Tomsk to engage in political activities for the nationwide local elections His (held on September “smart 13). strategy,” vote whose primary goal was to prevent the ruling from bloc winning elections, had somedegree success of nationwidein local theelections, 2019 and the main purpose his of visit to the cities in Siberia was to roll out the strategy. morning of August 20, a civilian aircraft bound for Moscow that had flown out Airport Tomsk of made an emergencylanding atnearby Omsk Airport when Navalny suddenly became ill. Navalny was taken to an emergency hospital near the airport, but he remained in a coma, and on August 22, he was transported to Berlin, Germany treatment. for a chemical nerve agent from the family, Novichok European Union (EU), and NATO the eachG7 issued their own statements. The Ministers’Foreign Russian theStatement,G7 called on 2020, dated September 9, including the Military Doctrine which the Putin administration is also planning to revise, will attract attention. vitalposition in the nationalsecurity modern policy of Russia since thefall the of Soviet Union, and so the release this of document has had a large impact. On the other hand, policy documents Russia’s originally formed a hierarchical structure with the National Security Strategy at the top. The Russian Security Council is workingtoward revising the strategy, nuclear weapons presented in (III). This lackconsistency of within the policy documentand the remainingambiguity in itsinterpretation hasnot settled the debate concerning Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy, particularlypolicy which is frequently raised. the E2DE Regarding E2DE, the 41 Firstly, Russia Firstly, reserves the rightto use nuclear 40

Furthermore, the division duties of is clearly laid outin (IV). The chapter What caught the attention the of strategy community inside and outside 168 anticipate four scenarios. four anticipate weapons in response to the use nuclear of and other types weapons of mass of destruction against and/or it its allies (paragraph The second scenario 17). is the use nuclear of weapons in the aggression event of against the Russian Federation with the use conventional of weapons when the very existence the of state is in jeopardy (paragraph The third and scenario 19(g)). 19(b) is the use nuclear of inweapons the the event of arrival reliable data of on a launch ballisticof missiles attacking the territory the of Russian Federation and/or its allies the so-called(paragraph launch on warning. 19(a)), The fourth scenario is the use nuclear of weapons in the an event of attack an by adversary against critical governmental or military sites the of Russian Federation, disruption which of underminewould nuclear forces response actions (paragraph 19(v)). stipulates thatthe presidentis the supreme commander nuclear of deterrence and thatpolicy, the federal government led the by prime minister implements measures to carry out the economic policy aimed at maintaining and developing nuclear deterrence assets and shapes and exercises the foreign and information policy in the area nuclear of deterrence, while the Security Council chaired by thepresident shapes the basicprinciples military of policy in the area nuclear of deterrence and coordinates the activities the of related bodies. In addition, the defense minister, acting through the the chief of General Staff, directly plans and carries out organizational and military measures in the area nuclear of deterrence. Russia were the third and fourth scenarios, which had not been stated previously in other policy key documents such as the Military Doctrine,as as well the affirmationof the escalate to de-escalate (E2DE) policy. (I) General Provisions chapter in this document states as one state policy for nuclear deterrence that “in the event of a military conflict, thisPolicy provides thefor prevention anof escalation military of actions and their termination on conditions thatare acceptable the for Russian Federation and/or its allies,” but asdiscussed this above, point was not included in the conditions the for use of Chapter 5 Russia 171 Under the 49 , the Russian Navy carrying out tactical Harusame 50 Japan’s MSDF destroyerJapan’s Harusame maneuvers with Russian Navy ships (Japan Joint Staff official website) , and, other ships. Furthermore, (NSC) withCouncil theSecurity establishment the of National second Abe administration, the Japan-Russia Ministerial 2+2 Meeting was held a total four of times, and consultations between the foreign affairs and defense authorities, unit-to-unitexchanges between the Self-Defense Forces and the Russian military, and joint training were continuously conducted. Exchanges between Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) and the Russian Navy were particularly active. In addition to the regular holding joint Japan-Russia of Searchand Rescue Exercises (SAREX), most in recently, January 2020,the second Joint Exercise in Counter Piracy activities was in held the Gulf Aden of with the participation of Japan’s MSDF destroyer frigate Yaroslav Mudryi in Japan in the December National Security 2013, Secretariat (NSS) was established inthe Cabinet Secretariat the following month, which January functioned 2014, as to the Apparatcounterpart the of the Security Council in the Russian Federation. Consultations on security began to be regularly between held Shotaro, Yachi the first secretarygeneral of theNSS, andNikolai Patrushev, secretarySecurity Council.of As relations between the Russia and Western countries rapidly deteriorated due to the Ukraine conflict and annexation of Crimea at the welcomed the launch the of Foreign Japan-Russia 2+2 and Defense Ministerial Consultation and the memorandum between the Ministry Foreign Affairs of Japanof and the Apparat theof Security Council of the Russian Federation, which was signedunder the DemocraticParty of Japan administration, and agreed regular to hold consultations based on the memorandum. Chancellor Chancellor 47 46 advancing Japan’s approach to Russia on the security front. 48

Amidstthe deepening opposition between Russia and Western countries since Under the second Abe administration, there was a deepening of Japan-Russia 170 Withthe transition fromthe Abe Shinzo administration to the Suga Yoshihide administration in September 2020, attention in Russia has turned tothe direction policy of Japan’s toward Russia. Under the second Abe administration inaugurated in December active diplomacy 2012, toward Russia was developed as the basis Security National Strategy in December 2013 approved with Japan’s Regarding policy. of Japan-Russia relations, the National Security Strategy mentions that “under the increasingly severe security environment in East Asia, is it critical Japanfor to advancecooperation with Russia in allareas, including security and energy, thereby enhancing bilateral relations as in a whole, order to ensure its security,” (3) Japan-Russia Relations at a Time of Transition of Time Japan-Russia a at Relations (3) government to bring the perpetrators to justice under the Chemical Weapons Convention, and stated that the Navalny incident“is another grave against blow democracy and political plurality in Russia.” Merkelstrongly opposed this, and there frequently have been other gaps in perception among Western countries with regards to economic relations with StatesUnited incident, the Navalny the annexation.responseto afterInthe Russia announced further strengthening sanctions of in relation to Nord Stream 2, and further diplomatic maneuvering with Germany is predicted. the annexation Crimea of German in March chancellor 2014, Angela Merkel has maintained a certain economic of level relations with Russia, most notably the construction the of gas pipeline NordStream 2, which directly connects Russia and Germany. On the other hand, against the backdrop aboutincreasing of its dependence on Europe’s Russian-produced concernsenergy resources, in December U.S. president2019, Donald Trump signed a bill imposing sanctions on companies that participate in the installation Nord Stream of 2. defense and security cooperation, beginning with theSummit Meetingin In theApril joint statement 2013. issued as a result the of leaders meeting, the two Chapter 5 Russia 173

55 Defense Minister Shoigu has maintained that 54 Efforts of the Russian Military 3. Response to COVID-19 and Capability Improvement Improvement 3. Response to COVID-19 and Capability Countermeasures to prevent the been spreadhave taken COVID-19 of since (1) Response to and(1) COVID-19 the Role of the Russian Military The spread has also COVID-19 of been serious in Russia, and the Russian military has been busy with preventing the disease’s outbreak and spread. According to a report regularly published the by Defense Ministry on the status COVID-19 of infections within the Defense Ministry and military, the total number people of who had been infected coronavirus the by novel and subsequently recovered as Decemberof civil 24, 2020 was servants. 22,979 soldiers and 3,312 Furthermore, 4,228civil soldiers servants and571 had tested positive and were receiving treatment as December of 24. March On 2020. March an 12, operational headquarters headed Ruslan by Ministry, Defense the in established was minister, defense deputy first Tsalikov, which decided to strengthen the inspection structures ineach Russian military unit, each military educational institution, and various organizations in the the statuscoronavirus novel of infections within the military is nothaving any substantial impact on the Russian military. Going forward, will it be necessary to carefully monitor what kinds diplomatic of channels Russia uses what for purposes in its policies toward Japan, including the personnel policies and reorganization the of governing structure the by administration core. Furthermore, as mentioned in conservative new Section 1, provisions concerning territory and historical perceptions were established by the As to the Constitution the of RussianFederation in July 2020. amendments enter a new phase with the inaugurationrelations of the Suga Japan-Russia administrationSeptember2020,in there amendments the political is domestic developments a regarding need to Russia’s adequatelytheevaluate that impact to the Constitution and the Post-Putin issue on Japan-Russia have relations. Moreover, in Moreover, January 52 Council and meeting body comprisedthe of heads of each department, as as well the Apparat the of Security Council which supports it, a core play in role the policy mechanism. Under the 2020 Security Council reforms, minister prime previous Medvedev took up the position deputy of chairman theof Security Council. During Secretary General Yachi’s term of office, 51 53

With the institutionalizationMinisterial the of 2+2 Meeting between consultationswere eight held times. This diplomatic channel was inherited by his successor as Secretary General Kitamura Shigeru. 2019, On September 17, shortly after Secretary General Kitamuratook up the post, Secretary Patrushev visited Japan to pay a courtesy call on Prime Minister Abe and an hold exchange viewsof withSecretary GeneralKitamura regarding allaspects Japan-Russia of relations and the security policies the of two countries. 172 Secretary General Kitamura the of National Security Secretariat paying a courtesy call on President Putin (TASS/Kyodo) beginning Secretary 2014, of General visited Moscow Yachi twicein rapid succession, and theon March May of 5 same 14 consultations to year, hold withSecretary Patrushev. Japan and Russia and diplomatic diplomacy, NSC channels between Japan and Russia diversified during the secondarein involved the foreign Abe policies and military security administration. policies the of Putin Many actors administration, including the Presidential Administration, Defense Ministry, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, SVR and FSB. However, it is likely that the Security 2020, as the process making of amendments to the Constitution began in earnest in Russia, Secretary General Kitamura visited Moscow consultations to hold with Secretary Patrushev and pay a courtesy call to President Putin at his presidential residence. Chapter 5 Russia 175 65 Moreover, Russia 62 61 Behind this support for Italy, Russia’s desire to gain an 63 Furthermore, behind the support the for two Central Asian countries 64 The Russian military demonstrated its high capabilities through its response TheRussian military has not only responded to coronavirus the novel dispatched medical expert teams to Kyrgyzstan in July 2020 and to Kazakhstan in August the of same year to support countermeasures the COVID-19 of those two countries. to COVID-19. The following threeto COVID-19. points in particular are worth noting from domestically as mentioned above; it has also provided support to foreign countriesforeign supporttoprovided also has it above; mentioneddomesticallyas respondingfor to coronavirus, the novel including testing and treatment support medicalfor staff in partner countries, as as well disinfection operations for military and civilian facilities. InMarch 2020, in response to a request from the Italian government, the Russian Defense Ministry dispatched to Italy an expertteam comprisingRussian military physicians withabundant experience in infectious diseases and prevention epidemics of and experts from the nuclear, chemical and protection biological troops. This team carried out support activities locationsat 83 in The Lombardy. same kind support of was provided to Serbia, with teams dispatched Russia by working in cities 28 in Serbia. opportunity to improve deteriorating relations with Western countries can be observed. strengthened. December As of the 24, for various units stationed they in Moscow, carriedhave out the disinfection facilities of with a total area approximately of 1,026,000 square meters, including approximately 38,000 pieces equipment of and the buildings each of unit, military educationalinstitution, and national defenseindustry. In each military district and the Northern Fleet, disinfection approximatelyof facilities 1,900 has been carried out, covering a totalarea of meters. square 200,000 approximately andSerbia, Russialikelyaimed increaseto influenceits by further strengthening its relations with allies and partners. These dispatches were carried out with the cooperationthe of Aerospace long-range Forces’ aero-transport forces, the Main Military-Medical Directorate in the Defense Ministry, and the chemical nuclear, and protection biological troops, and their activities were constantly monitored and controlled the by operational headquarters within the Defense Ministry. 60 As of December As of 24, the 59 56 According deputy to Timur defense Ivanov, minister, who was 58 The construction the of multifunctional medical centers proceeded 57

Thequarantine and disinfection operations the by chemical nuclear, and On March Defense 25, Minister Shoigu, in a report on the current situation 174 Defense Ministry. In addition, other countermeasures that were taken include thesuspension military of delegations to and from foreigncountries, the cancellation large-scale of events military by units, the implementation of military conscription according to plan with strict countermeasuresCOVID-19 in effect, the establishment special of sections responding for in to 32 COVID-19 military hospitals, and various measures pertaining to strengthening the posture theof chemical nuclear, and protection biological troops inorder to enhance operations. disinfection and quarantine in two stages, with the first eight centers constructedthe remaining eight by centers constructed April The reserve May 15. by fund the 30, of 2020, and Russian governmentcontributed billion 8.8 rubles tothe construction, and approximately 12,000 staff in the construction section Defense of Ministry worked around the clock. Russia’s engineer troops were also mobilized in construction.the biological protectionbiological troops to prevent the also spread have been COVID-19 of of theof Russian military to the Federation Council Federal of Assembly the of Russian Federation, revealed that the Defense Ministry was constructing 16 multifunctionalmedical centers the for response regions in to 15 COVID-19 of Russia. in charge the of construction the of centers, the centers were equipped with cutting-edge medical equipment facilities and the 16 contained a total 1,600 of hospital beds. In addition, treatment in the centers is provided approximately by 2,300 medical staff received who have pre-training at theMilitary-Medical the Moreover, centersAcademy. accept not only military workers, but also patientsCOVID-19 from among the general public. centers had treated patients, a total whom were members of 4,442 13,325 of of the general public. Also, as December of multifunctional 24, 30 medical centers had ultimately been constructed, including centers constructed to strengthen the countermeasuresCOVID-19 the of federal subjects Russia. of Chapter 5 Russia 69 177 Because of this, the Northern Fleet 70 72 Efforts are also being made to strengthen the Northern 71 Coinciding with reinforcement the of military posture the of Western Military gained jurisdiction the over regions the of Komi Republic, Arkhangelsk oblast, Murmansk oblast, and Nenets autonomous district, which previously belonged to the Western Military District. Under a December 2020 presidential decree, the Northern Fleet was designated a Joint Strategic Command that executes the tasks a militaryof district. Fleet in terms equipment. of During 2020, six battle ships and more than 180 new pieces equipment of were introduced, including two nuclear submarines andnew a landingmodel of ship. Likewise, manyexercises the for improvement operationalof capability been have conducted. In June 2020, exercises were September,toAugust fromandNorwegian Sea, and Barents Seaperformed the in theArctic group troops of carried out long-distancea ocean navigation to Crest Bay in the Bering Sea. Along the way, they the protection important of conducted industrial facilities tactical Peninsula, on Taymyr Chukchi exercises for Peninsula, and Yakutia. pointed out that was it necessary to steadily execute the various measures from to stipulated 2025 2019 inthe activity Western plan of Military District. Thanks toorganizational 28 measures executed in 2020,including the formation a of new motorized sniper division, missile brigade, andartillery brigade, in order to establish the combat-readiness the of units commensurate with the introduction the of latest armaments, Defense Minister Shoigu presented the outlook that overall possession the of latest armaments the for Western Military District would increase with to 65% the introduction approximately of 2,000 theof latest armaments. he pointed Moreover, outthat there were approximately exercises 320 in the Western Military District which were of large-scale in 2020, 10 exercises. District, to moves strengthen the posture the of Northern Fleet (Northern Joint Strategic Command), which is responsible the for Arctic region, become have more notable. In June 2020, military Russia’s divided which Federation, PresidentRussian the administrative of division Putin issued the Ukaz on districts into the Western, Southern, military- Central, and Eastern military districts and theNorthern Fleet from January 2021. 1, In addition to this, they demonstrated a high 68 67 66 Ongoing Military Reform and the Strengthening of the Military the of Strengthening the and Military Reform Ongoing Posture

The third is the growing the of long-range role aero-transport forces. In The second is the growing the of chemical nuclear, role and biological level of capability of level regarding the transportation personnel of and equipment when providing the aforementioned support to foreign countries. 176 (2)  (2) In the May 2020 meeting of the Defense MinistryShoigu expressed the perception Board, that Russia continued to face the Defense most serious Minister military threat in the western strategic front. In order to respond to this threat, he the perspective improving of the operation executing capabilities the of Russian military. The first is the growing roleof the engineer troops.It the engineer is troops notable demonstrated that capability a high of level in completing the construction the of multifunctional medical centers in regions throughout Russia in a short period. Defense Minister Shoigu has also recognized the growing importance deploying of the engineer troops a variety to solve problems of that arisein the execution specialof operations the by Russianmilitary and in the exercises. conducting of process February 2020, when situation the COVID-19 became more serious in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, the Aerospace Forces, under the instructions President of Putin, sent transport two IL-76 aircraft to bring Russian home 144 citizens who had been staying in thatprovince. protection troops. The capability high of level demonstrated these by units both in Russia and inforeign countries in preventing the spreadis COVID-19 of notable.theseThe of role troops is becoming increasingly important, especially as there are particular concerns about terrorism using nuclear materials, chemical weapons, or weapons. biological In 2020, the chemical nuclear, and biological protection troops participated in a greater number exercises. of In August the of same in year, Sakhalin in the Eastern MilitaryDistrict, the anti-terrorist troops from this military district conducted a joint exercise with the chemical nuclear, and protection biological troops. Chapter 5 Russia 179 The exercises were conducted at seven training ranges within the Military District, centered on the training range. Kapustin Yar In the largest exercise at the participants Kapustin Yar, attempted to strengthen the mutual coordination of multinational units for a response to a terrorist attack by a hypothetical enemy and for repelling an air attack by a hypothetical enemy. District Central Military Kazakhstan 76 Russia The Caspian Flotilla conducted exercises in which the Iranian military also participated. District Azerbaijan Western Military Western Tactical exercises Tactical conducted in South Ossetia. District Kapustin Yar training range Kapustin Yar Caspian Sea Southern Military Ukraine Georgia ArmeniaArmenia Iran Tactical exercises Tactical conducted in Armenia. Black Sea Turkey Tactical exercises Tactical conducted in Abkhazia. Exercises conducted by the Black Sea Fleet. Large-scale exercises Kavkaz 2020 centered on the Southern Military on the Southern 2020 centered Kavkaz exercises Large-scale District October 14, 2020. Participating countries and countries Participating etc. their troops, Armenia Belarus China Myanmar Pakistan Iran Russia Approximately 900 troops overall 900 troops Approximately Approximately 80,000 troops Approximately 250 tanks Approximately 450 battle vehicles Approximately and transport vehicles S-400 S-300 missile surface-to-air Pantsir-S system Moves to strengthenMoves the military posture the of Eastern Military District have ・・・・・・also continued to make progress. In August 2020, Defense Minister Shoigu visited Kamchatka krai and Khabarovsk krai in the Eastern Military District and in eastern Siberia to inspect the military development of facilities and the current condition the of national defense industries. In Kamchatka krai, Defense Minister Shoigu visited Vilyuchinsk Base, a major strategic base nuclear for ballistic themissile submarines of the Pacific Fleet, and inspected the construction of new facilities for the Borei-A class and Yasen-M class inthe process executing of actual combat operations. Although Kavkaz 2020 anticipated a scenario a of fight with terroristforces supportedby ahypothetical the fact enemy, that the stopping an of air attack was the important issue, and that the participating air defense troops deployed the S-400 and surface-to-air S-300 missile systems and the surface-to-air missile system Pantsir-S anti-cruise for missile defense, suggests that defense against an air attack a state by possessing high-tech weapons was the issue key in the exercises. , September 28, October 12 and Zvezda, September 28, October 12 and the author based on Krasnaia Compiled by Sources: Figure 5.1.  Figure 74 A total 1,200 smallof and 73 The exercises were carried out in two stages: in the first 75

Duringthe summer training season that exercises began 15,500 on of June 1, TheRussian military continues tomake progress in its equipment upgrades. 178 a varietya types of had been planned, and they were conducted as planned.The largest these of exercises was the large-scale exercises Kavkaz 2020 carried out from September to September 21 26, 2020, primarily in the Southern Military District. Kavkaz 2020 was the one of strategic exercises that are performed a by different military districtevery was It a large-scale year. exercise that mobilized approximately 80,000 troops (including air defense troops), a maximum 250 of tanks, and a maximum infantry 450 of battle vehicles and armored transport vehicles. The related tacticalexercises were conducted notonly at the seven training ranges the of Southern Military District, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea, but also in Armenia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. The major stages of the exercises took the form multilateral of exercises, with the participation of militaryunitsArmenia,from Belarus,China, Pakistan.Myanmar,and Moreover, units the of Iranian military participated in the exercises the of Caspian Flotilla in the Caspian Sea. At At the end of June 2020, a meeting of the Defense Ministry Board was held to considerthetheoutcomesmilitary of reforms Accordingin thefirst 2020. of half to the report Defense by Minister Shoigu at this meeting, major pieces of 776 the latest armaments were introduced to the Russian military in the first halfof This2020. number includes airplanes 58 and helicopters, more than battle 140 armored multipurpose vehicles, 510 vehicles, one strategic nuclear ballistic missile submarine (Borei-A class), and two replenishment ships. overall As possession a result, of the latest armaments by the Russian militarywith rose the to 68.5%, prospect of reaching 72% by the end of 2020. stage, they considered the to how best problem of coordinate the multinational units in a fight against terroristforces supportedby ahypothetical to how repel an air enemyattack the by hypothetical and In the enemy. second stage, they theworked to issues solve arising when directly commanding multinational units large-scaleexercises were conducted asplanned in the winter training season, without being interrupted the by impact the of spread COVID-19. of Chapter 5 Russia

83 181 Moreover, in Moreover, thesame 84 85 Strengthening of Military Cooperation and Arms Exports Aimed at Expansion Russia isalso aiming to strengthenthe capabilities the of Eastern Military In September 2020, an exercise to stop a landing a hypothetical by enemy was conductedin the Northern Territories and KurilIslands. (3)  (3) Russia is continuing to strengthen military cooperation through the Collective Security Treaty Organization In March 2020, a meeting (CSTO). was by held the Joint Staff CSTO concerning the strengthening mutual of collaboration between the Crisis Reaction Center establishedwithin the Joint Staffand each the member of CSTO countries.the At meeting, they considered the best approach tomutual collaboration between the militarycommand institutions eachof member country and the Crisis Reaction Center in the a crisis eventof situation, and discussed in particular future directions the for a development of communications system to expand the possibilities the of mutualcooperation information.confirmed also of Theyeducation program area thean that insystem training for the human resources essential to the Crisis Reaction Center be would offered atthe Russian Military Academy the of GeneralStaff. Furthermore, prior to this meeting, there were to moves expand the number countries of participating agreed was it Specifically, CSTO. the by carried out exercises multilateral the in that Serbia and Uzbekistan would participate as observers in the joint exercise month, the air regiment of the Pacific Fleet located in located Primorsky Pacific Fleet in the regimentair month,the of participatedkrai in an exercise to defend Russian ships from the sky in open-sea areas, and aircraft belonging to this regiment were deployed to the Okhotsk Sea of and the Sea of Japan. District units through tactical exercises. Exercises to improve coastal defense and the deployment capabilityto far-sea areas stood out in particular. In June 2020, two coastal defense exercises were carried outin Kamchatka. These were an exercise using combat/transport a Ka-29 helicopter to attack the maritime targets a hypothetical of enemy on the coast, and an exercise using the surface- to-air missile system Pantsir-S to repel the air attack a hypothetical of enemy. 79 The Komsomolsk- 82 80 Furthermore, to moves improve the 77 81 and deployment the was of flagshipreported. T-72B3 tank 78

In Irkutsk oblast, Defense Minister Shoigu visited the Irkutsk Aircraft InKhabarovsk krai, Defense MinisterShoigu inspectedthe Amur capabilities units of deployedin the Northern Territories and KurilIslands have continued. example, deployment For the of surface-to-air was missile V4 S-300 newly announced, 180 strategic nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which Russia plans to introduce to the Pacific Fleetgoing forward. Defense MinisterShoigu confirmed that the construction was work progressing as planned and instructions gave the for towork be completed the by 2020. end of na-Amure Aircraft Company is a branch officeof Aircraft Building Company Sukhoi, and it is producing the multipurpose fighter Su-35 and the state-of-the- art fifthgeneration fighter Iliya Tarasenko, Su-57. general director of Company Sukhoi, explained in a report to Defense MinisterShoigu that delivery the of aircraft and Su-35S to theSu-35 Aerospace Forces in 2020 was progressing as planned. In response to this, Defense Minister Shoigu announced that the Defense Ministry was planning additional procurement aircraft, the of Su-35S the total whichvalue was of on the billion scale 70 rubles. of General Moreover, Director Tarasenko mentionedcontracta that requires the company to manufacture Su- 76 2028, by stating57s that the company was currently advancing preparations for an assembly-line production facility manufacturing Su-57 for that was expected to be completed the by the end of year. Building Company Irkut. The Irkut companymultipurpose fighter manufacturesSu-30SM and the and battle training repairs aircraftAt Yak-130. the this Defensecompany, Minister Shoigu announced that the Defense Ministry had Yak-130 decidedconcludetoadditional fighters 25 contracts Su-30SM and 21 for aircraft a total (with value on the billion scale 100 rubles). of Shipbuilding Company and Komsomolsk-na-Amure Aircraft The Company. Amur Shipbuilding Company is currently building four small missile ships (Project and 22800) two corvettes but Defense (Project Minister 20380), Shoigu announced thatthe Defense Ministry was prepared to conclude contracts for the building a further of six the of same corvette. model of Chapter 5 Russia 183 Military cooperation with Belarus, which 90 91 89 There also have been tomoves diversify partner countries in military Russia has been strengthening military cooperation with itsallies CSTO cooperation. One those of partner countries is Pakistan, which also participated in Kavkaz On 2020. September Gerasimov, 2020, Valery the chief 5, of General Staff met Nadeem Raza, chairman Joint Chiefs Staff of of Committee of Pakistan Armed Forces, and they agreed to strengthen jointexercises between across the board, but some problems have been occurring that Nagorno-Karabakh are intensification the theof as difficultsuch conflictto,respond to Russia for and the political turmoil in Kyrgyzstan. Military cooperation between Russia and Armenia has been strengthened; for example, Armenia participated in Kavkaz 2020and related tactical exercises were conducted in the country. However, in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which was Russia’s response reignited was limited in to September leading 2020, the parties to anddispatching a peacekeeping ceasefire units, rather thanmilitarily agreement supporting its ally Armenia. This might negative have implications on the credibility the of CSTO as a collective defense system. Behind this response Russia by is the recognition that good relations with Azerbaijan are also important the for stability the of Caucasus region. Regarding the political turmoil that occurred in October 2020 in Kyrgyzstan, where Russia is attempting to strengthen military cooperation including counter-terrorism cooperation, Russia has taken a wait-and-see stance without deploying any forces. This is due to the fact that Russia thinks that Kyrgyzstan, which is strongly dependent on Russia economically and militarily, willbe forced to adopt pro-Russiaa policy direction regardless which forces of are incharge the of administration. operation executing capability the of two militaries, and strengthen global strategic stability. has formed the Union State with Russia, is one of for the Russia most to important manage issues its relations with allied in countries.Kavkaz 2020, and Belarus in August participated2020, the joint exercise Slavyanskoe Bratstvo (Slavic Brotherhood) 2020 was carried out in Belarus by the airborne units of both Russia and Belarus. Moreover, 88 86 87

Russia has continued to strengthen military cooperation with China. Inaddition, a joint meeting defense of ministers the of three frameworks of 182 Nerushimoe Bratstvo (Unbreakable Brotherhood) 2020 and the joint Rubezh (Border) 2020, respectively. exercise on December 22, 2020, the militaries China of andRussia carried out a joint air patrol from the East China Sea to the Japan, Sea of which was the second such patrol after the patrol carried A formation including out in July 2019. two of Russia’s Tu-95MS strategic bombers and four bombers of flew China’s from H-6K the strategic East China Sea over the theRussian SeaDefense Ministry, of Japan.the objectives According of this to flightwere to deepen and thedevelop comprehensive partnership China of and Russia, further improve mutualthe of level collaboration between the two militaries, improve the joint Approximately 100 soldiers from China’s participated People’s in the aforementioned large-scale exercises Liberation Kavkaz 2020. Army (PLA) the CSTO, thetheCommonwealth CSTO, Independent of and States the SCO was (CIS), inheld September and 2020 in was attended Moscow, the by defense ministers countries. 12 of Russiahoped to use this meeting as a foundation promoting for international military cooperation. The actual outcomes obtained at this meeting are the Firstly, defense as follows. ministers all the of of countries agreedto expand cooperation in the fight against terrorism.the experiences each of country Secondly, in dealing with they the spread and COVID-19 of exchanged discussedthe mutualproblem of support thefor building infectious of disease response capabilities.Thirdly, a statement was incorporated intothe joint statement the of meeting which said that be would it unacceptable to allow the collapse the of treaty-based system in the area arms of control, including controlnuclear of weapons. Furthermore,there were outcomes in theindividual frameworks the and of CSTO the CIS. In was it the decided CSTO, that the working group on electronic warfare of Defense Ministers’ Council would beestablished. In the CIS, the activity plan Defenseof Ministers’ Council for 2021 was approved, and based on it, the budget the for a joint development air of system decided. was defense Chapter 5 Russia

185 , no. 1052 1052 , no. , National, Institute for Defense , January 20, 2020, art. 3, no. 251. , December art. 51, no. 22, 1997, SZRF Briefing Memo , August 31, 2020, no. 35, art. 2020,, August 35, no. 5549. 31, » stat’i 103, chast’ 1 stat’i i 110, chasti 3 i 4 stat’i 112, 1 , March art. 2020, 10, no. 9, 1323. , November 9, 2020, no. 45, art., November 2020, 45, no. 9, 7061. , July 2, 2013. , January 1 (chast’ no. II), 4, art. 2016, 212. », », «d» stat’i 83, «a , January 2020. 15, , i «b» chasti 2 stat’i Konstitutsii 95, RF. 1 1 , January 2020. 21, » stat’i Konstitutsii 83, RF. Shinpan sekai kenposhu dai-nihan [New edition the of constitutions nations, of 2nd 1 (2020): 21–35. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 25.08.2020g., no. 526, Bezopasnosti “Mezhvedomstvennoi Rossiiskoi Federatsii komissiipo voprosam obespecheniia Soveta natsional’nykh interesov Rossiiskoi Federatsii v Arktike,” SZRF Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 26.10.2020g., no. 645, “O Strategii razvitiia Arkticheskoi zony Kommersant RBK «zh» i «o», Punkta 23, “Polozhenie o Sovete Bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii,” Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot no. 07.13.2020g., “O 175, nekotorykh voprosakh Soveta Bezopasnosti SZRF Federatsii,” Rossiiskoi Hasegawa Takeyuki,“Dai niji puuchin seiken ni okeru anzen hosho hosei no henyo: Anzenhosho kaigi fukugicho secchi to sono hoteki shomondai chushin wo to shite” [The development the of Russian security legislation under the second Putin administration: The institutional reform the of Security Council], Society Eurasian Russian in Edition], ed. Takahashi Kazuyuki (Tokyo: Iwanami TheShoten, text 457–517. 2012), of the Constitution in the footnotes is thetext after the amendments unless otherwise noted. Rasporiazhenie Prezidenta 5-rp, no. RF “Oot rabochei 15.01.2020g., gruppe po podgotovke predlozhenii o vnesenii popravok v Konstitutsiiu Rossiiskoi Federatsii,” (SZRF) Federatsii Rossiiskoi zakonodatel’stva Sobranie Stat’i 81, 92 Stat’i 81, 2016g.), “O 2016g.), Pravitel’stve Rossiiskoi Federatsii,” 5712. Stat’iaFederal’nyi 1, konstitutsionnyi no. 4-FKZ,zakon ot 06.11.2020g., “O Pravitel’stve SZRF Federatsii,” Rossiiskoi Konstitutsii RF. Stat’ia 1, Federal’nyi konstitutsionnyi no. 2-FKZzakon ot (red. 17.12.1997g., ot 28.12. «a», «b», «b «b», «a», Studies (NIDS) (January 2020). Konstitutsii i 136, Stat’i 135 RF. Punkt 87, Strategii natsional’noi bezopasnosti RF, Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 31.12.2015g., no. 683, SZRF gazeta Rossiiskaia Hasegawa Takeyuki, “Russian Presidential in Power the Putin Era and the Recent Constitutional Discussionon Revisions,”





«d

17) 16) 12) 13) 14) 15) 2) 11) 10) 8) 9) 7) 4) 5) 6)  3) Shin kaisetsu sekai Going forward, it Thestrengthening 93 92 Kommentarii Konstitutsii k [Constitutions Nations, of 5th Edition], eds. Shiyake Masanori and Kommentarii k Konstitutsii Rossiiskoi Federatsii novaia redaktsiia redaktsiia novaia Federatsii Rossiiskoi Konstitutsii k Kommentarii For theFor text and previous Japanese translations the of Constitution 1993 (before and after the amendments), thefollowing literature was referenced unlessotherwise noted: E.Iu. Barkhatova, s popravkami 3-e izdanie (Moskva: Prospekt, Rossiiskoi Federatsii 2021); 2-e izdanie (Moskva: Prospekt, 2020); Ueno Toshihiko, “Roshia ni okeru 2020nen no kenpo shusei meguruwo shomondai” [Issues regardingthe 2020 constitutional amendments in Russia], Russia & NIS Business Monthly 5 (2020): no. 65, 80–105; Mizoguchi Shuhei, “Roshia renpo” [Russian Federation], in kenposhu dai-gohan kenposhu Tsujimura Miyoko (Tokyo: Sanseido, 2020), 281–341; ShibuyaKenjiro,“Roshia” [Russia], 281–341; Sanseido, 2020), (Tokyo: TsujimuraMiyoko

In 2020, armsRussia’s exports to African countries showed a new trend. In of militaryof cooperation between the two countries is likely against the backdrop of the Russian military leadership’s perception that military cooperationPakistan, which is adjacent with to Afghanistan, is essential in order to suppress the threatsthat the destabilizationAfghanistan of and spread Islamic of extremist forces pose toCentral Asia overall. April 2020, Russia’s arms export company Rosoboronexport had concluded revealed a contract to supply assault ships to that a certain country it in the Sub- SaharanAfricastated thatregion.It thisfirstarmsyearsthe theof was 20 time in trade with African countries that finishedRussian-made navy equipmentwould be exported to this region. Russia has beenattempting to take the opportunity presented this by kind trade of to build exports a foothold for to Africa and subsequently expand its export market. In the past 20 years, Russia has been the largestsupplier arms of to African countries, andhas it been indicated that Russia countries. African to exports arms total of 49% for accounts 184 NOTES 1) their two militaries and strengthen the hotline between the the chief of General Staff and the chairman JointChiefs Staff of of Committee. will be necessary to closely monitor moves Russia’s regarding arms exports to this region. Chapter 5 Russia 187 , Australian Strategic Strategic Australian , Arms Control Today 50, Russia’s NordRussia’s Stream 2 Pipeline: Running in ” [The nuclear strategy of Russia as seen in the Basic , February 2020. 10, , June 2, 2020. , September 2, 2020. ‘Kakuyokushi no bunya ni okeru roshia renpo kokka seisaku no kiso’ , August 20, 2020. Vedomosti , by Paul Belkin, Michael Ratner, (September and 28, Cory 2020). IF11138 Welt, [Japan] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “G7 Foreign Ministers’ Statement”2020). (September 9, [U.S.] Congressional Research Service, Place [Japan] Cabinet Secretariat, “National Security Strategy,” English edition (December 17, 2013). [Japan] Ministry Foreign of Affairs, “Nichiro paatonaashippu no hatten ni kansuru nihonkoku sori daijin to roshia renpo daitoryo no kyodo seimei” [Joint Declaration by the Prime Minister Japan of and the President the of Russian Federation Concerning Developing the Japan-Russia Partnership] (April 2013). 29, [Japan] Joint Staff, “Roshia kaigun tono kaizoku taisho kyodo kunren no jisshi ni tsuite” [About the holding a joint of exercise in counter piracy activities with the Russian Navy], (January 22, 2020). Sovet Bezopasnosti RF, “Sekretar’ Soveta Soveta Patrushev Sekretaria Bezopasnosti vstreche “O RF, Rossiiskoi vstretilsia Bezopasnosti Sovet Federatsii 2014); s 14, N. (March Iati” S. General’nym P. Iaponii sekretarem Soveta natsional’noi Bezopasnosti bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii N. Prem’er-ministra Iaponii P. S.Abe” (May 6, 2014). Patrusheva so spetsial’nym [Japan] Ministry Foreign of Affairs, poslannikom “Patorushefu roshia renpo anzen hosho kaigi shoki ni yoru Abe sori daijin hyokei” [Courtesy call on Prime Minister Abe by Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary the of Security Council the of Russian Federation], 2019). (September 17, bezopasnosti sekretarem General’nym s natsional’noi Prezident “Vstrecha Soveta Rossii, Meduza Times York New 3623. Prezident Rossii, “Utverzhdena Voennaia doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii” 2010); (February 2, Policy Institute 2020). (June 19, Koizumi “ Yu, ni miru roshia no kaku senryaku Principles State of Policy the of Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence], Japan Institute International of Affairs (August 24, 2020). Rossiiskaia gazeta Shannon Bugos, “Russia Releases Nuclear Deterrence Policy,” 41– 6 (2020): no. 42. Paul Dibb, “Russia’s New Strategy for Nuclear Strategist War,”

47) 48) 49) 50) 51) 52) 53) 45) 46) 44) 39) 42) 43) 40) 41) , May 14, 2018, 2018, , May 14, , June 8, 2020, art. 23, no. , July 27, 2020, 30, art. no. , July 27, 4884. , October 26, 2020. , September 2020. 14, , September 20, 2020. , September 4, 2020. , September 2020. 14, , “Itogi vyborov.” (Zvezda), March(Zvezda), 2020. 23, , June 2020. 23, , September 2020; Vedomosti 15, , November 2, 2020, 44, no. art. 6970. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 07.05.2018g.,zadachakh razvitiia Rossiiskoi no. Federatsii na period 204, do 2024 goda,” SZRF “O natsional’nykh tseliakh i strategicheskikh Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 21.07.2020g., Rossiiskoi Federatsii no. na period do 2030 goda,” SZRF 474, “O natsional’nykh tseliakh razvitiia Wall Street JournalWall 20,no. art. 2817. Interfax, September 30, 2020. Gazeta.ru KingstonReifand Shannon Bugos, “U.S.-Russian Arms Control Working Groups Meet,” Arms Control Association (August 2020). 5, Joe Biden for President, “The Power of America’s Example: The Biden Plan for Leading the Democratic World to Meet Campaign the website. Challenges of the 21st Prezident Century,” Rossii, Biden-Harris “Telefonnyi razgovor s Prezidentom (January 26, 2021). SShA Dzhozefom Baidenom” Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 02.06.2020g., no. 355, “Ob Osnovakh gosudarstvennoiRossiiskoi Federatsii v oblastipolitiki iadernogo sderzhivaniia,” SZRF RIA Novosti, October 2020; Izvestia 14, Rossiiskaia Rossiiskaia gazeta Minzdrav Rossii, “Minzdrav Rossii zaregistriroval pervuiu v mire vaktsinu ot COVID-19” 2020). (August 11, Levada-Tsentr, Odobrenie deiatel’nosti Vladimira Putina. Telekanal JohnsHopkins University, Dashboard“COVID-19 theCenterby Systemsfor Science and Stopkoronavirs. JHU website; (JHU),” University Hopkins Johns at (CSSE) Engineering RF website. Kommersant Prezident Rossii, “Telefonnyi razgovor s prem’er-ministrom Italii(March 2020). 21, Dzhuzeppe Konte” RossiiskoiFederatsii obespecheniiai natsional’noi bezopasnosti periodnagoda,” 2035 do SZRF Vzgliad Pravitel’stvo RF, “O Gosudarstvennoi komissii po voprosam razvitiia Arktiki”23, 2015). (March TASS, September 2020. 13, Kommersant



31) 32) 33) 34) 36) 37) 38) 35) 29) 30) 186 28) 27) 26) 25) 23) 24) 22) 18) 19) 20) 21) Chapter 5 Russia 189 Expert , December 2020. 23, , November 12, 2020. , December 22, 2020; Krasnaia Zvezda , June 5 and June 2020. 25, , March 4, 2020. , September 2020. 14, , September 2020. 23, , September 2020. 7, , August 2020. 14, , August 2020. 14, , August 2020. 14, , September and September 11 30, 2020. , September 2020. 14, a, September 2020. 7, , Chatham House (October 26, 2020). , October 28, 2020. Comment Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezd Krasnaia Zvezda GazetaRossiiskaia Kate Mallinson, “Kyrgyzstan’s Protracted Political and Economic Crisis,” Krasnaia Zvezda Nezavisimaia Gazeta Izvestiia Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda GazetaRossiiskaia Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda  





91) 87) 88) 89) 90) 92) 93) 80) 81) 82) 83) 84) 85) 86) 79) , December 28, SZRF , June 8, 2020, art. 3, no. 3629. 17, issue (September 136 17, 30, 2020). , June 6 and 2020. June 7, , May 6 and 2020. July 1, 2020. , May 27, , September 28, 2020. , August 12, 2020. , July 1, 2020., July 1, , March 2020. 23, , March 2020. 27, , May 6 and 2020. July 1, , May 6, 2020. , May 6, 2020. , August 5 and August 24, 2020. , May 22, 2020. , February 2020. 7, , May 22, 2020. Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Roger McDermott, “Russia’s Armed ForcesSwarm Test UAV Tactics in Kavkaz 2020,” Monitor Daily Eurasia Rossiiskaia Rossiiskaia Gazeta Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Ministerstvo oborony “Noveishaia RF, zenitnaia raketnaia sistema VVO v S-300V4 ramkakh ucheniia vpervye budet perebazirovana na Kurily” (October 26, 2020). Ministerstvo oborony RF, “Informatsionnyi biulleten’ Ministerstva oborony Rossiiskoi Federatsii po nedopushcheniiu rasprostraneniia koronavirusnoi novo infektsii,” accessed December 24, 2020. Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Ministerstvo oborony RF, “Informatsionnyi biulleten’ Ministerstva oborony Rossiiskoi Federatsii po nedopushcheniiu rasprostraneniia koronavirusnoi novo infektsii,” accessed December 24, 2020. Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot no. 21.12.2020g., 803, “O Severnom flote,” Iaponii Sigeru Kitamuroi” (January 2020). 16, Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Krasnaia Zvezda Marlene Laruelle and Madeline McCann, “Post-Soviet State Responses to COVID-19: Making or Breaking Authoritarianism,” PONARS Eurasia (March 2020). Ministerstvo oborony RF, “V sovmestnaia trenirovka armeiskom podrazdelenii antiterrora korpuse i RХB zashchity” (August 2020). 10, VVO na Sakhaline sostoialas’ Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 05.06.2020g., SZRF Federatsii,” Rossiiskoi no. 374, “O voenno-administrativnom delenii 2020, no. 52 (chast’2020, I), 52 no. art. 8795.

Ibid. 







Ibid. 188 73) 74) 75) 76) 78) 77) 55) 61) 62) 66) 54) 56) 57) 58) 59) 60) 63) 64) 65) 67) 68) 69) 70) 71) 72)