ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY FOURTH QUARTER 2018
ASIA-PACIFIC OUTLOOK METRICS & MOOD
UPCOMING AIRCRAFT AIRBUS H160 PRE-OWNED MARKET LEONARDO AW139
COUNTRY PROFILE NEW ZEALAND
INTERVIEW MARKET SUMMARIES MATTHIEU GUISOLPHE JETS & HELICOPTERS ROTARY PROGRAM MANAGER ASIAN SKY GROUP
FOURTH QUARTER 2018 SPECIAL FEATURE GLOBAL HELICOPTER MARKET OVERVIEW Heli. Fleet report ad.pdf 2 1/18/19 4:10 PM
AVAILABLE MARCH 04, 2019
YEAR END 2018
A BREAKDOWN OF THE ASIA PACIFIC CIVIL HELICOPTER FLEET
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SPECIAL EATURES
EMS Operations Helicopter Leasing Offshore O & G and Alternative Energy
ASIANSKYMEDI Heli. Fleet report ad.pdf 2 1/18/19 4:10 PM
PUBLISHER’S NOTE AVAILABLE MARCH 04, 2019 The US has its “Sage of Omaha” in Warren Buffet. Here in Asia we have Superman – Li Ka Shing. And he’s “super” because he started work at the tender age of 15 in a plastics trading company and when he retired in 2018 was worth US$38B and held the title of the “Richest Man in Asia”. So when Mr. Li speaks, people listen. Recently, looking ahead at the economy in 2019, he said “it will probably be very complicated – everyone should be cautious”. You could literally hear the wallets being put back into pockets. Other industry giants in China have joined in. Baidu CEO and the Chairman of Cheung Kei Group have warned “winter is coming” and that this winter will be “colder and longer than expected”. Then on the heels of these dire proclamations, just this week the data YEAR END 2018 showed the Chinese economy grew at its lowest rate in 10 years – a mere 6.6% - with expectations that it will worsen through the year.
Not a surprise then that people are buying less mobile phones, cars … and aircraft and selling them too. Through 2018 ASG’s transactional consulting business, we saw mostly an outflow of aircraft from Greater China and into the US & Canada. Sellers I would categorize as a mixture A BREAKDOWN OF THE ASIA of replacement, with a new aircraft either delivered or on order; hard to still justify, who only used the aircraft for 100 hrs a year anyway; and desperate, those with the bank knocking on the door of which there were PACIFIC CIVIL HELICOPTER FLEET quite a few. Not quite repossessions but controlled resales by the lender.
It is with great anticipation therefore the industry waits for this year’s
C ASG Asia-Pacific Business Jet Fleet report. I’m asked quite often these days whether the data is ready yet and did the fleet expand or actually felt with operators looking for ways to utilize their once valuable assets, M contract in 2018 – that’s how bad the perception is at the moment. We’ll and the overall market is faced with an oversupply. But, again, we’ll see Y know at ABACE 2019 in Shanghai. the real impact of all this in the upcoming Fleet Report.
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MY A knock on effect of this fleet turmoil is certainly hard times for the This issue will give a hint at what’s to come, particularly in our special management companies, with making a buck becoming harder and feature — Global Helicopter Market Overview, which is a historical CY harder. 2018 had everything. We saw management companies go analysis of the market. For our usual in-depth, pre-owned analysis, we’re CMY bankrupt & put their AOCs up for sale; whole fleets of aircraft being put looking at the AW139. We’ve also profiled the H160, which is set for entry
K on the market in an effort to downsize & survive; senior management onto the market later this year. changes; and business model adjustments. The country profile this time around is New Zealand, giving some insight We expect more of the same in 2019 with management companies on its rotary market. And, we speak with one of ASG’s latest additions — SPECIAL EATURES right sizing, consolidating and seeking other sources of revenue. Every Matthieu Guisolphe, Rotary Program Manager — who is based in Kuala management company it seems is an aircraft broker now, others Lumpur, Malaysia on the Southeast Asian rotary market. developing their MRO business or opening FBOs, all in an effort to EMS Operations generate more revenue and grow. As always, we hope this information is insightful. All this uncertainly fills the pages this issue of Asian Sky Quarterly – Helicopter Leasing the market is more pessimistic, with aircraft utilizations & purchase intentions down, with just more “I’m not sure” overall.
Offshore O & G and The 2018 Q4 issue of Asian Sky Quarterly comes out just before the annual Asia-Pacific Civil Helicopter Fleet Report is released in early Alternative Energy March, as such we focus a lot of our attention this issue on the helicopter Sincerely, market. Like the business jet market, the helicopter market faced turmoil Jeffrey C. Lowe in 2018; a major leasing company filed for bankruptcy shaking up the Managing Director, Asian Sky Group market quite a bit, the after effects of the O&G market were still being
SPECIAL THANKS TO OUR CONTRIBUTORS:
ASIANSKYMEDI FOURTH QUARTER 2018 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 1 CONTENTS
04 ECONOMICS 34 MARKET DYNAMICS Overview of the Asia-Pacific’s region current status and An in-depth analysis of inventory levels, market trends and specific country’s GDP versus their business jet and the changing price signals for the business jet and helicopter helicopter fleet size. fleets in the Asia-Pacific region, given the continual fluctuations in supply and demand.
08 MOOD & INTENTIONS Results of our survey on the Asia-Pacific region’s outlook on 42 INTERVIEW: economic status, aircraft utilization, purchase intentions and MATTHIEU GUISOLPHE, influencing factors. ROTARY PROGRAM MANAGER; ASG Discussing the growing trend of helicopters used for VIP/ corporate use in Southeast Asian market. 14 COUNTRY PROFILE - NEW ZEALAND Overview and examination of New Zealand’s growing rotary industry, current challenges and potential for the future. 45 UPCOMING SPOTLIGHT AIRBUS HELICOPTERS H160 An introduction to the H160, with a complete look at the 22 SPECIAL FEATURE: new helicopter’s operational uses. HELICOPTER MARKET OVERVIEW A historical look into the global helicopter market, featuring data on pre-owned helicopters and new deliveries. 50 MARKET SUMMARY - JETS A look at market position and average days on market of featured pre-owned business jets. 28 PRE-OWNED SPOTLIGHT LEONARDO AW139 A comprehensive market performance analysis of the pre- 60 MARKET SUMMARY - HELICOPTERS owned AW139 market. A look at market position and average days on market of featured pre-owned helicopters.
PUBLISHER The materials and information provided by Asian Sky or expenses howsoever caused, whether arising Group Limited (“ASG”) in this report is for reference directly or indirectly from any error or omission in only. Any information we provide about how we may compiling such information. This report also uses interpret the data and market, or how certain issues third party information not compiled by ASG. ASG EDITORIAL may be addressed is provided generally without is not responsible for such information and makes Litalia Yoakum considering your specific circumstances. Such no representation about the accuracy, completeness Roderick Li information should not be regarded as a substitute or any other aspect of information contained. The for professional advice. Independent professional information, data, articles, or resources provided by DESIGN advice should be sought before taking action on any any other parties do not in any way signify that ASG Michael Wong matters to which information provided in this report endorses the same. Aya Leung may be relevant. Robert Li ASG shall not be liable for any losses, damage, costs ADVERTISING/AIRCRAFT SALES ENQUIRIES: MARKET RESEARCH & DATA ANALYSIS or expenses howsoever caused, arising directly or Alison Pang: [email protected] Bowen Zhang indirectly from the use of or inability to use this report Avinava Sengupta or use of or reliance upon any information or material Jordan Yuen provided in this report or otherwise in connection with Victor Li any representation, statement or information on or Casper Zhuang contained in this report. Asian Sky Group Suite 1401, 14 Floor, Fortis Tower MEDIA SALES DIRECTOR ASG endeavors to ensure that the information 77-79 Gloucester Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong Alison Pang contained in this report is accurate as at the date Tel: (852) 2235 9222 | Fax: (852) 2528 2766 of publication, but does not guarantee or warrant [email protected] its accuracy or completeness, or accept any liability www.asianskygroup.com of whatever nature for any losses, damage, costs www.asianskymedia.com
2 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FOURTH QUARTER 2018 Chris is a Senior Airworthiness Inspector who’s always loved to travel. His many years of aviation experience and expertise go far when it comes to getting your aircraft inspected and certified. Check in with Chris if you need a fast turnaround, he can usually inspect and issue certificates on the same day. Go Chris! Find out how we can help you with your aircraft registration needs at bermudaaircraftregistry.bm
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Australia Malaysia Australia’s economy slowed in the third quarter of 2018, growing 2.8% Malaysia’s GDP slipped slightly to 4.4% y/y in Q3, down from 4.5% in Q2, year-on-year (y/y); down from Q2’s 3.1% growth (revised from 3.4%). marking the fourth quarter of decline. Growth in Q3 was supported by Household consumption was the main contributor of the weakened an increase in household and private spending. The sudden bottoming growth, driven by low discretionary spending — durable goods, apparel, out of the liquefied natural gas and palm oil markets lowered growth entertainment and leisure. of the economy. However, the Bank Negara Malaysia has advised that the decline in oil prices will not have an impact on the growth projection Mainland China for 2019. China’s economy fell to 6.5% y/y in Q3, amid a growing trade war with the US, marking the lowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2009 Philippines during the global financial crisis. Still, the economy remains on track The Philippine economy slowed down to 6.1% y/y in Q3, down from to meet and exceed the full-year growth expectation of 6.5%. Slowed a revised 6.2% in Q2. Trade, construction and manufacturing were growth is attributed to weakened domestic demand. the main drivers of growth for the quarter, while consumer spending slowed. To meet the government’s growth target of 6.5% to 6.9% the Hong Kong country needs to expand by at least 7% in Q4. Hong Kong’s economy grew 2.9% y/y in Q3, down from 3.5% in Q2. Still, the two-year low met market expectations. The growth is attributed Taiwan to consumer spending, which has continued to slow over the year, Taiwan’s economy grew 2.28% y/y in Q3, down from 3.29% in Q2 and impacted by a decline in the stock and property markets. Hong Kong short of the government’s forecast of 2.36%. The slowed growth is continues to be vulnerable to the regional trade conflict. Forecasts attributed to weaker than expected private consumption, which fell predict Hong Kong’s economy will slow in coming quarters. short of forecasts. Still, merchandise and service exports rose, as well as government and private sector investments. India India’s economy slipped to 7.1% y/y in Q3, down from 8.2% in the Thailand previous quarter as consumption demand moderated and the farm Thailand’s economy slowed to 3.3% y/y in Q3, down from 4.6% in the sector slowed. Still, India remained the world’s fastest-growing major previous quarter and below market expectations. Growth in exports economy, ahead of China. decelerated and the tourism sector was notably impacted by a decline in visitors from China after a tour boat capsized ending in 50 fatalities. Indonesia The Thai Government expects the economy will grow 4.2% in 2018 and Indonesia’s economy expanded 5.2% y/y in Q3, down only slightly from between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2019. 5.27% in Q2. Domestic demand continued to be the driver of growth in Q3. Government consumption expanded, as well, supported by spending Singapore on the Asian Games held August through September. Analysts forecast Singapore’s economy slowed significantly to 2.2% y/y in Q3, down private consumption will continue to drive the economy. from 3.9% in Q2. Growth was supported by the finance and insurance, manufacturing and business services sectors. Still, manufacturing — a Japan key contributor to GDP growth in 2017 — grew only 3.5% in Q3, down Japan’s economy contracted to 1.2% y/y in Q3; a three-year low. The from 10.7% in the previous quarter. contraction is largely attributed to several natural disasters hitting the country, including torrential rain, a typhoon and an earthquake. Nearly South Korea all factors considered in GDP faced decline. However, the economy is The South Korean economy decelerated to 2% y/y in Q3, down from the expected to recover in Q4. 2.8% growth in the previous quarter and marking the weakest growth rate since Q3 of 2009. Construction lowered 8.1% in Q3, as well as a contraction in gross fixed capital formation, contributing to the lower growth rate.
* China's researching area includes Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau & Taiwan.
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FOURTH QUARTER 2018 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 5 ECONOMICS
BUSINESS JET & HELICOPTER FLEET AND GDP BY COUNTRY
Australia China Hong Kong India
Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand
Papua New Philippines Singapore South Korea Guinea
Taiwan Thailand
GDP (BILLION USD)* BUSINESS JET FLEET CIVIL TURBINE HELICOPTER FLEET
348 873
12,544 674 9,491 749 651
4,909 5,019 608
250
2,439 520
1,862 186 1,564 1,484 170 1,246 1,306 153 980 140 913 138 382 114 566 60 288 274 511 272 55 55 52 420 421 51 225 48 48 210 214
43 176 339 39 323 324 37 170 158 300 322 276 136 272 32 135 128 118 26 107 191 194 95 21 20 20 16 36 9 22 14 17 6 6 15 20 3 1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
* Data Source: ASG & JETNET, the annual fleet size is adjusted using Jetnet fleet yearly increases, subject to change. * GDP Source: Tradingeconomics.com
YEAR END 2018 Asia Pacific Business Jet and Civil Helicopter Fleet Report
Comprehensive coverage and overview of the business jet and civil helicopter fleet in the Asia-Pacific region, visit www.asianskymedia.com for more! COMING SOON
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UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS OF BUSINESS AND GENERAL AVIATION IN SELECT ASIA PACIFIC COUNTRIES.
FEATURING COUNTRY SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON CIVIL HELICOPTER AND BUSINESS JET FLEETS, AS WELL AS DATA ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRAINING SCHOOLS.
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