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CHAD Food Security Outlook February to September 2016

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February to September 2016 CHAD Food Security Outlook February to September 2016 Deterioration in the food security situation for most agropastoral Sahelian Chad KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes, February 2016 Poor households in certain departments in the country’s Sahelian belt have depleted their cereal stocks earlier than usual (by the end of February instead of April/May). This is the case in Mangalmé (Guera), Western Batha, Kanem, Wadi Bissam (Kanem), Southern BEG, Mamdi (Lac), Djourf Al-Ahmar (Sila), and Kobé and Megri departments in Wadi Fira. These households are already facing an atypical rise in cereal prices and atypical reduction in their incomes, leading to gaps in food consumption. They will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as of March (Map 2). The effects of the security problems in the Lac region and the shortfall in cereal production in the Sahel will be mitigated by the better pastoral livelihoods in Northern Kanem, Northern BEG, Eastern Batha, and Biltine (Wadi Fira) departments and the more stable security situation in Wayi department (Lac). Poor households in these areas will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security conditions through May. The deterioration in the Source: FEWS NET food security situation in Wayi department with the beginning of This map depicts relevant current acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not reflect the lean season in farming areas will lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) chronic food insecurity. outcomes in that area as of June. Food security conditions in Kimiti (Sila), Central and Western Guera, Dar Tama (Wadi Fira), Assoungha (Ouaddai), and Eastern and Western Tandjilé departments and in the Western Mayo Kebbi and Eastern Logone regions have deteriorated with the early depletion of cereal stocks in these areas. Poor households will be facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between February and June in pastoral areas and through the month of September in cropping areas. Most households in the Sudanian zone have average levels of food stocks and will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through September (Map 1). In general, pastoral conditions are fair, but pasture resources in the Hadjer Lamis, BEG, Kanem, Batha and Wadi Fira regions are limited, where the physical condition of livestock is deteriorating earlier than usual (beginning in February instead of April) and low demand and falling prices for livestock will reduce pastoral incomes. The situation will start to improve as of July with the growth of fresh pasture and heavier demand for livestock during the month of Ramadan. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for February through May 2016 Current situation Agropastoral conditions Crop estimates for 2015 put national cereal production, severely affected by the late start of the rainy season and poor distribution of rainfall, at 10 percent below the five-year average. The areas most affected by shortfalls in crop production are Kanem (-54 percent), Batha (-51 percent), Sila and Biltine (-31 percent), BEG (-27 percent), Guera (-25 percent), and Western Mayo Kebbi (-21 percent). Other affected areas include Eastern Logone (-14 percent), Ouaddai (-11 percent), and Tandjilé (-10 percent). The main ongoing farming activities in the Sahelian zone are the tending of crops, the harvesting-threshing of flood-recession sorghum (berbéré) crops, and market gardening activities. Berbéré production is down to as much as 30 percent below-average in all parts of the country. This shortfall in production is due to the low levels and poor distribution of rainfall and smaller areas planted in crops with the late Source: FEWS NET start of the rains, which has also thrown berbéré harvests off schedule (which normally take place in January-February). These crops are still Most likely estimated food security outcomes for in the milk grain stage of their growing cycle and threatened by June through September 2016 infestations of “miella.” Farming activities for winter off-season crops in reclaimed polder areas of the Lac region are progressing normally, where cropped areas are receiving their third and fourth rounds of irrigation and their second and third weeding. The size of areas currently planted in cold off-season cash crops is nearly 25 percent smaller than average due to security problems and the abandonment of farms. As usual, harvests of these cash crops were scheduled to begin by mid-February 2016, but yields are expected to be close to 15 to 20 percent below- average. Market gardening activities have been underway since the end of the growing season for rainfed crops, with wide-spread harvests of tomatoes, lettuce, eggplants, etc. The departure of market gardeners in search of gold following its recent discovery in Fitri reduced the size of the area planted in these crops, resulting in a 10 to 12 percent below-average harvest. Source: FEWS NET Current farming activities in the Sudanian zone involve crop storage, land clearing, and market gardening activities. There has been a great deal of interest in these latter activities in the past few years, fueled by the provision of farm input assistance and small gardening tools by the country’s food security partners. Berbéré crops in this area, which are grown mostly in the vicinity of Lake Iro (in the Moyen Chari region), are in the maturation stage and, as usual, should be harvested around the end of February, with average crop yields. Pastoral conditions In general, the already abnormally low levels of pasture have been further reduced by brush fires. Moreover, practically all seasonal lakes and ponds have run dry (with a few exceptions in the Sudanian zone). Animal health conditions are stable and livestock in the Sudanian zone are still in average to good physical condition. On the whole, pastoral conditions in the Sahelian zone are fair. The below-normal levels of pasture in Ouaddaï will not meet the needs of local livestock through the month of June. There is currently still average pasture availability in the Sila region and Dar-Tama (Wadi Fira) and an adequate supply of pasture in Salamat, in Guera, and in Batha. Crop residues from harvests of berbéré crops will help improve pasture availability to some extent. By March 2016, livestock wells in the eastern part of the country will be unable to keep pace with the growing watering needs of livestock since the month of February due to the extreme heat in that area. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016 There is a growing shortage of pasture around villages in the Western Sahel, requiring animals in Kanem and Barh El Gazal to travel long distances. Animals are being watered at boreholes and livestock wells, which is leading to high tensions. However, animals are still in average physical condition, though their condition is tending to deteriorate. In general, pastoral conditions in the Lac region are rough with the unstable situation in that area slowing trade and herd movements and increasing the size of the animal population due to the presence of transhumant herds unable to return to their home bases. Household cereal stocks Household cereal stocks consist mainly of rainfed crops from the 2015/2016 season and, in general, are smaller than usual. Most households counting on berbéré crops to augment their cereal stocks will be disappointed with their yields with the reported problems with wilting crops, particularly in Mangalmé department (Guera) and Ati in Western Batha. There will be more or less average levels of cereal stocks in the eastern part of the country through the end of April 2016, except in Kobé and Megri departments in Wadi-Fira and Djourf Al Ahmar department (Amdam) in Sila, where there are low cereal stocks due to the shortfall in rainfed crop production. Cereal stocks are limited in the Western Sahel, where households are market dependent. In spite of the good volume of cereal production for 2015-2016, households in the Lac region have nearly depleted their cereal stocks due to the pressure put on them by the larger household size in that area with the presence of DPs, with whom host populations are sharing their meals. There are average levels of household cereal stocks in the Sudanian zone with the carry-over stocks and diversified diet in that area (potatoes, taro, yams, etc.). Farm labor In general, this year, there is a smaller supply of farm labor in the Sahelian zone than in the past with the discovery of gold in the Batha region attracting large numbers of workers from the Kanem, BEG, Guera, Batha, Ouaddai, and Tibesti regions. The departure of these workers is reducing their income from farm labor in these areas, as well as their total wage incomes. Panning for gold is an informal activity and is currently banned by the government. Certain workers are still flocking to Salamat to work in the berbéré harvest, where the daily wage is up 33 percent from 2015, or 1500 CFAF compared with 1000 CFAF last year. There will be continuing employment opportunities for farm labor (crop maintenance work) in market gardening activities in Ouaddaï through March 2016, where the daily wage is up by 20 percent from the same time last year, from 2500 CFAF to 3,000 CFAF. There is a large availability if not a surplus of farm labor in the Lac region with the presence of refugees, returnees, and DPs from Nigeria and the Lake Chad islands.
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