CHAD Food Security Outlook February to September 2016

Deterioration in the food security situation for most agropastoral Sahelian

KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes, February 2016  Poor households in certain departments in the country’s Sahelian belt have depleted their cereal stocks earlier than usual (by the end of February instead of April/May). This is the case in Mangalmé (Guera), Western , , (Kanem), Southern BEG, Mamdi (), Djourf Al-Ahmar (Sila), and and Megri departments in . These households are already facing an atypical rise in cereal prices and atypical reduction in their incomes, leading to gaps in food consumption. They will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as of March (Map 2).  The effects of the security problems in the Lac region and the shortfall in cereal production in the Sahel will be mitigated by the better pastoral livelihoods in Northern Kanem, Northern BEG, Eastern Batha, and (Wadi Fira) departments and the more stable security situation in department (Lac). Poor households in these areas will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase

2) food security conditions through May. The deterioration in the Source: FEWS NET food security situation in Wayi department with the beginning of This map depicts relevant current acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not reflect the lean season in farming areas will lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) chronic food insecurity. outcomes in that area as of June.  Food security conditions in (Sila), Central and Western Guera, Dar Tama (Wadi Fira), Assoungha (Ouaddai), and Eastern and Western Tandjilé departments and in the Western Mayo Kebbi and Eastern Logone regions have deteriorated with the early depletion of cereal stocks in these areas. Poor households will be facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between February and June in pastoral areas and through the month of September in cropping areas. Most households in the Sudanian zone have average levels of food stocks and will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through September (Map 1).  In general, pastoral conditions are fair, but pasture resources in the Hadjer Lamis, BEG, Kanem, Batha and Wadi Fira regions are limited, where the physical condition of livestock is deteriorating earlier than usual (beginning in February instead of April) and low demand and falling prices for livestock will reduce pastoral incomes. The situation will start to improve as of July with the growth of fresh pasture and heavier demand for livestock during the month of Ramadan. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government.

CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for February through May 2016 Current situation

Agropastoral conditions Crop estimates for 2015 put national cereal production, severely affected by the late start of the rainy season and poor distribution of rainfall, at 10 percent below the five-year average. The areas most affected by shortfalls in crop production are Kanem (-54 percent), Batha (-51 percent), Sila and Biltine (-31 percent), BEG (-27 percent), Guera (-25 percent), and Western Mayo Kebbi (-21 percent). Other affected areas include Eastern Logone (-14 percent), Ouaddai (-11 percent), and Tandjilé (-10 percent). The main ongoing farming activities in the Sahelian zone are the tending of crops, the harvesting-threshing of flood-recession sorghum (berbéré) crops, and market gardening activities. Berbéré production is down to as much as 30 percent below-average in all parts of the country. This shortfall in production is due to the low levels and poor distribution of rainfall and smaller areas planted in crops with the late Source: FEWS NET start of the rains, which has also thrown berbéré harvests off schedule (which normally take place in January-February). These crops are still Most likely estimated food security outcomes for in the milk grain stage of their growing cycle and threatened by June through September 2016 infestations of “miella.” Farming activities for winter off-season crops in reclaimed polder areas of the Lac region are progressing normally, where cropped areas are receiving their third and fourth rounds of irrigation and their second and third weeding. The size of areas currently planted in cold off-season cash crops is nearly 25 percent smaller than average due to security problems and the abandonment of farms. As usual, harvests of these cash crops were scheduled to begin by mid-February 2016, but yields are expected to be close to 15 to 20 percent below- average. Market gardening activities have been underway since the end of the growing season for rainfed crops, with wide-spread harvests of tomatoes, lettuce, eggplants, etc. The departure of market gardeners in search of gold following its recent discovery in Fitri reduced the size of the area planted in these crops, resulting in a 10 to 12 percent below-average harvest. Source: FEWS NET Current farming activities in the Sudanian zone involve crop storage, land clearing, and market gardening activities. There has been a great deal of interest in these latter activities in the past few years, fueled by the provision of farm input assistance and small gardening tools by the country’s food security partners. Berbéré crops in this area, which are grown mostly in the vicinity of Lake Iro (in the Moyen Chari region), are in the maturation stage and, as usual, should be harvested around the end of February, with average crop yields. Pastoral conditions In general, the already abnormally low levels of pasture have been further reduced by brush fires. Moreover, practically all seasonal lakes and ponds have run dry (with a few exceptions in the Sudanian zone). Animal health conditions are stable and livestock in the Sudanian zone are still in average to good physical condition. On the whole, pastoral conditions in the Sahelian zone are fair. The below-normal levels of pasture in Ouaddaï will not meet the needs of local livestock through the month of June. There is currently still average pasture availability in the and Dar-Tama (Wadi Fira) and an adequate supply of pasture in , in Guera, and in Batha. Crop residues from harvests of berbéré crops will help improve pasture availability to some extent. By March 2016, livestock wells in the eastern part of the country will be unable to keep pace with the growing watering needs of livestock since the month of February due to the extreme heat in that area.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

There is a growing shortage of pasture around villages in the Western Sahel, requiring animals in Kanem and Barh El Gazal to travel long distances. Animals are being watered at boreholes and livestock wells, which is leading to high tensions. However, animals are still in average physical condition, though their condition is tending to deteriorate. In general, pastoral conditions in the Lac region are rough with the unstable situation in that area slowing trade and herd movements and increasing the size of the animal population due to the presence of transhumant herds unable to return to their home bases. Household cereal stocks Household cereal stocks consist mainly of rainfed crops from the 2015/2016 season and, in general, are smaller than usual. Most households counting on berbéré crops to augment their cereal stocks will be disappointed with their yields with the reported problems with wilting crops, particularly in Mangalmé department (Guera) and Ati in Western Batha. There will be more or less average levels of cereal stocks in the eastern part of the country through the end of April 2016, except in Kobé and Megri departments in Wadi-Fira and Djourf Al Ahmar department (Amdam) in Sila, where there are low cereal stocks due to the shortfall in rainfed crop production. Cereal stocks are limited in the Western Sahel, where households are market dependent. In spite of the good volume of cereal production for 2015-2016, households in the Lac region have nearly depleted their cereal stocks due to the pressure put on them by the larger household size in that area with the presence of DPs, with whom host populations are sharing their meals. There are average levels of household cereal stocks in the Sudanian zone with the carry-over stocks and diversified diet in that area (potatoes, taro, yams, etc.). Farm labor In general, this year, there is a smaller supply of farm labor in the Sahelian zone than in the past with the discovery of gold in the Batha region attracting large numbers of workers from the Kanem, BEG, Guera, Batha, Ouaddai, and Tibesti regions. The departure of these workers is reducing their income from farm labor in these areas, as well as their total wage incomes. Panning for gold is an informal activity and is currently banned by the government. Certain workers are still flocking to Salamat to work in the berbéré harvest, where the daily wage is up 33 percent from 2015, or 1500 CFAF compared with 1000 CFAF last year. There will be continuing employment opportunities for farm labor (crop maintenance work) in market gardening activities in Ouaddaï through March 2016, where the daily wage is up by 20 percent from the same time last year, from 2500 CFAF to 3,000 CFAF. There is a large availability if not a surplus of farm labor in the Lac region with the presence of refugees, returnees, and DPs from and the Lake Chad islands. The daily wage earned by a farm worker in reclaimed polder areas in Guini, Mamdi, or Berim (farming areas of Bol) was 1000 CFAF as of the beginning of February, compared with 2000 CFAF in 2015, representing a 50 percent pay cut. Most of the current demand for farm labor in the Sudanian zone is for land clearing work. The daily wage rate is around 500 CFAF, which is in line with the norm. The continuing market gardening activities in certain areas generally rely on unpaid family labor. Population movements Certain farmers in the Western Sahel have reportedly abandoned their market gardening activities to look for gold in (Batha), particularly in neighboring areas. There are continuing reports of population displacements in Lac due to security incidents connected with the Boko Haram movement, with especially large numbers of DPs in Bagasola and areas around the city of Bol. According to the count by the Ministry of Social Action, there are currently around 95,000 displaced persons. The flow of seasonal migration by residents of Eastern Batha, Koundjourou (Western Batha), and Mangalmé to Salamat to work in the harvest of off-season crops is already underway due to the low levels of rainfed crop production in these areas. There are no reports of any unusual population movements in the Sudanian zone at this time. Cereal supply/availability With the regular market supplies in the Sahelian zone, there is good cereal availability on most cereal markets, except in Iriba (Kobé) and Matadjana (Megri) in the Wadi Fira region and in the Western Sahel where there is a smaller than usual seasonal supply of cereal crops due to the low production in Wadi Fira. The flow of trade to western markets has slowed with the disruptions in the Lac area, resulting in low supplies on the Kanem and Bahr El Gazal markets. Harvests of berbéré crops are underway in Guera, Salamat, Batha, Moyen Chari, and Chari Baguirmi, where there is good cereal availability, though less than usual. There are already supplies of berbéré as well as market garden crops on markets in Ouaddaï. Markets in the Sudanian zone have good cereal supplies from harvests of rainfed crops and markets in crop-short areas are still getting a normal flow of supplies.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

Cereal demand There is a large demand for cereals in departments with limited rainfed crop production such as the three Mubi and Dadjo II cantons in Mangalmé department (Guera). There is also a higher demand in Western Batha and Fitri than last year, fueled by the poor yields of rainfed and berbéré crops for the 2015/2016 season. There has been very little demand for staple cereal crops (millet and sorghum) in Ouaddaï since January 2016 with the good volume of production for 2015-2016. There is a higher than usual household demand in Wadi Fira due to the limited availability of carry-over cereal stocks with the shortfall in cereal production for 2015-2016. There is an acute cereal demand in the Western Sahel, where camel caravans from Kanem and Bahr Al Gazal have been sighted heading for Hadjer Lamis and Chari Baguirmi in search of cereal supplies despite the steady flow of vehicles delivering supplies to markets in these areas. There is currently an average level of cereal demand in the Sudanian zone, where households are consuming own-grown crops and large quantities of tubers such as taro and potatoes. There is no institutional or significant demand at this time, except for trader inventories and local consumption. Cereal trade There is a normal flow of inter-regional cereal trade, except for trade between Lac and other regions. Markets in Moussoro (BEG) and surrounding areas are also getting normal supplies of maize from the Lake Chad area. Markets in Kanem get their supplies of maize from the Lac region and their supplies of millet and sorghum from Hadjer Lamis and Chari Baguirmi, but these trade flows are slowed/disrupted by the current state of emergency in the Lac region. There is currently a normal flow of trade from surplus to deficit areas of the Sudanian zone. Cereal prices In general, cereal markets are well stocked with crops from cereal harvests between October and December 2015 and the first localized harvests of berbéré crops. The extremely large volume of imports (rice, food pastes, wheat flour) in Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, Sila, and the Western Sahel is also affecting cereal prices, keeping them stable. Millet prices on the Abéché market in the Ouaddaï region in January 2016 were close to the five-year average (-3 percent). Prices on the Iriba market in the Wadi Fira region are also near-average (+1 percent). On the other hand, cereal prices in the Western Sahel are up from last year and above the five-year average. This rise in prices is attributable to the low production in 2015 though, in some cases, prices have come down. Maize prices in Moussoro are 13 percent above the five-year average. There are shortages of cereal supplies on markets in the Lac region, where maize prices began rising in the month of January with most households starting to become market dependent, for cereals in particular. The price of maize on the Bol market was 197 CFAF/kg in January 2016, 15 percent above the five-year average of 171 CFAF. In addition, the selling price of fuel used both for transportation and for the operation of motor-driven pumps in the Lac region is 750 CFAF/liter, compared with its official price of 550 CFAF/liter. This is a result of the security problems limiting the flow of supplies from N'Djamena and Nigeria, which are restricting motorcycle and vehicular traffic and driving up transportation costs. Thus, high transportation costs are causing the prices of most commodities trucked in from N’Djamena to increase. Staple food prices in the Sudanian zone are down from the same time in 2015 or, in some cases, stable. These price trends are attributable to the good levels of food stocks and the currently low demand with the decline in household purchasing power. For example, sorghum prices in Sarh are 20 percent lower than in January 2015 and close to the five-year average (-5 percent). Millet prices are also down from January 2015 on the Moundou (-14 percent) and Kélo (-15 percent) markets. Livestock prices Livestock prices on all markets are still low and well below-average due to the official closure of the country’s border with Nigeria since August 2014 as a result of the crisis in northeastern Nigeria created by the . This border closure is disrupting the country’s main export channel for livestock. In general, prices for livestock are well below-average in Ouaddaï (-32 percent) and Sila (-38 percent). Cattle prices for January 2016 on the Mao market in the Western Sahel were up slightly from last year due to the presence of Libyan traders. However, prices are still lower than normal. Humanitarian assistance Refugees and returnees from the Central African Republic in Haraze Mangueigne (Salamat) are receiving regular deliveries of assistance from U.N. agencies and international NGOs. Others are living with families and being monitored by the WFP. Humanitarian actors are continuing to provide assistance to returnees and refugees in the southern part of the country to help them engage in income-generating activities and, thereby, diversify their sources of income.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for February through September 2016 is based on the following assumptions with respect to nationwide conditions:

 Agro-climatic conditions: Based on an analysis of NOAA, ECMWS, IRI, and UK MET seasonal forecasting models, the assumption is that the rainy season will get off to a timely start and produce average to above-average levels of rainfall. There will be sufficient cumulative rainfall for normal crop growth and development.  Outlook for harvests of off-season crops: An across-the-board shortfall in harvests of berberé crops is expected after the late start of the 2015 rainy season and poor distribution of rainfall and with the smaller cropped areas with the rains ending sooner than usual.  Farm labor: The current gold mining activities reported in many areas could significantly affect the availability of labor for upcoming harvests of off-season crops. There will be well below-average levels of income from farm labor in areas affected by the conflict such as the Western Sahel with the heavy pressure from refugees/IDPs and returnees driving down wage rates.  Cereal markets and prices: There will be decreasing supplies of cereals beginning in March, until the end of the lean season, due to the shortfall in crop production. Cereal prices will stay high for the entire outlook period, peaking between July and August during the lean season in farming areas.  Cereal demand: There will be a steadily growing household demand on local markets with the heavy dependence of households on market purchase for their food supplies, particularly in areas reporting large shortfalls in cereal production and in the Lac region.  Cereal trade: There will be a normal flow of cereal trade from crop-producing areas and the Sudanian zone to markets in the eastern part of the country. However, trade flows to the Western Sahel will continue to be disrupted, with the crisis and resulting security measures slowing commercial trade between Lac and other deficit areas of the Sahel such as Bahr El Gazal and Kanem, which normally get their maize supplies from the Lac region.  Cereal supplies: There will likely be a smaller than average supply of cereals with the shortfall in cereal production for last season and the limited volume of imports from Nigeria and , and due to the security situation in the Lake Chad area, which will continue to disrupt trade, creating shortages on cereal markets, particularly in the Western Sahel, which will keep price elevated.  Farm inputs: Farmers in all crop-producing areas of the country are regularly supplied with fertilizer every year but, more often than not, there are long delays in its delivery. However, based on the recommendations and arguments of different specialized agencies and advocacy organizations for farmers, the ONDR (the National Rural Development Agency) and PNSA (the National Food Security Program) should make timely deliveries of farm inputs to farmers before the start of the 2016-2017 growing season, including supplies of seeds and fertilizer.  Security incidents linked to Boko Haram: The escalating security incidents in the Lac region since the end of 2015 will continue to disrupt livelihoods, markets, and trade through at least September 2016. This security crisis could create a food crisis in this area by jeopardizing harvests of both cold and hot off-season crops.  Pastoral conditions and availability of water: There will be a growing shortage of pasture and animal watering holes in most pastoral and agropastoral areas between now and March/April. As a result, pastoralists will begin traveling long distances to feed and water their animals. The lean season for pastoral populations could begin earlier than expected (by February rather than April/May) with the low supplies of pasture and water. Assuming the rainy season goes well, conditions will improve by the beginning of July with the growing availability of pasture and watering holes, to which pastoralists should continue to have ready access through at least the end of the outlook period.  Seasonal herd movements and physical condition of livestock: Transhumant livestock ensconced in grazing areas farther south will remain put as long as possible, before starting to head back up north towards the beginning of July instead of in mid-June as they normally do, making certain of the usual good replenishment of seasonal lakes and ponds and animal watering holes . Transhumant herds in the Lac region will be forced to remain there by the continuing security problems linked to Boko Haram. The physical condition of livestock will begin to deteriorate as of March-April with the shortage of pasture and drying up of watering holes and the limited milk production, which will be below-average until July. Thus, there will be no improvement in the physical condition of livestock before July, with a risk of atypically large numbers of animal deaths. Agropastoral households will continue to have below-average incomes, curtailing their cereal access.  Livestock markets: In general, there will continue to be a lower than normal demand for livestock with the limited volume of exports to Nigeria and Libya. Prices will stay below-average through the end of May, rising slightly in June/July during the month of Ramadan and again in September (with the celebration of the Feast of Tabaski). However, there could be

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

moderate fluctuations in demand for livestock between now and March with the reported influx of Libyans, attracted mainly by the good prices for sheep and cattle, and with needs for the upcoming election campaign in April.  Livestock prices: There will be no change in the level of foreign demand with the country’s borders expected to remain officially closed for the entire outlook period, particularly its borders with Nigeria and Libya. Thus, livestock prices will remain low, weakening terms of trade for pastoralists and steadily eroding their food access.  Sources of food and income: Household sources of food and income will be affected by the shortfall in cereal production for 2015, the premature rise in prices, and the decline in wage income from farm labor. There will be larger than usual numbers of households dependent on market purchase in deficit areas of the country’s Sahelian zone and in the Lac region between March and September.

Trends in prices for staple food and cash crops  Millet prices: There could be atypically sharp rises in millet prices between now and September in parts of eastern Chad affected by the below-average levels of rainfall and crop production during the 2015/16 crop year.  Sorghum prices: There could be moderate rises in sorghum prices between March and May with the expected low levels of berbéré production. There will be further rises in prices from their current level with the beginning of the lean season in June, with prices peaking in August before starting to come back down in September, though remaining well above the five-year average.  Maize prices: There will be a steady rise in maize prices between March and July, driven by smaller than average market supplies. The expected shortfall in hot off-season crop production (in late July) could steepen price increases through September, driving them well above the five-year average.  Sesame prices: There will be a slight rise in sesame prices, driven by the falling levels of market inventories and the growing foreign (from the , , and India) and domestic demand for sesame oil production during post-harvest periods of 2016. However, prices on many markets will be near or slightly above-average through September 2016.

Most likely food security outcomes Between February and May, the cereal stocks of most poor households in Mamdi (Lac), Wadi Bissam (Kanem), Southern Kanem, Southern BEG, Western Batha, Mangalmé (Guera), Djourf Al Ahmar (Sila), and Megri and Kobé departments (Wadi Fira) in the Sahelian zone will be reduced to a minimum by the poor rainfed cereal production in 2015, the poor harvests of flood-recession (berbéré) crops, and the smaller volume of market garden crops. As a result, very poor and poor households will be completely dependent on market purchases. However, with the high level of staple cereal prices and deterioration in their purchasing power as a result of their reduced incomes, these households will face food consumption gaps which will put them in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) stage of food insecurity between February and May 2016.

In addition, most departments in deficit regions, as well as Wayi department (in Lac) will move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity during this period, including Assoungha (Ouaddai), Dar Tama and Biltine (Wadi Fira), Eastern and Western Tandjilé, Eastern Batha, Kimiti (Sila), Northern Kanem, Northern BEG, Guera, and departments in the Guera region, and Western Mayo Kebbi and Eastern Logone departments . Poor households in these areas will be facing a deterioration in their food security situation, driven by the erosion in the purchasing power of pastoral households, the reduction in household income due to production deficits (except in the Lac region where security problems are disrupting sources of income), and the limited availability of milk, which is virtually nonexistent. In addition to the slowdown in business in the petroleum industry, the country’s three southern regions (Tandjilé, Western Mayo Kebbi, and Eastern Logone) began the year with virtually no carry-over cereal stocks and have been contending with production deficits. Accordingly, poor households in all these areas will have trouble meeting their basic food needs without limiting their nonfood spending and, thus, will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between February and May.

The difference in the severity of food insecurity in these two areas is attributable to their specific circumstances. For example, Wayi department in the Lac region is less affected by security problems than , though both are in the Lac region. Northern Kanem and Northern BEG departments are pastoral areas with better livelihoods than in Southern Kanem and Southern BEG. Kimiti department (Sila) is less affected by food insecurity than Djourf Al Ahmar (which is also in Sila) due to its carry-over stocks from 2014/2015 and average level of berbéré production compared with the comparatively low level of production in Djourf Al Ahmar.

The rest of the country will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity during this period.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

Between June and September, the departments in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the first half of the outlook period will remain in this phase with the lean season for farming households getting underway and the continued food consumption gaps in these areas. The transhumant pastoral area of Western Batha is an exception, where food insecurity levels will drop back down into the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase as of June. Food security conditions in other pastoral areas (Northern Kanem and Northern BEG) will show an improvement beginning in June, where there will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity with the start of the rainy season and the resulting recovery of pastures, the physical recovery of livestock, the rise in livestock prices during the month of Ramadan and with the celebration of the end of Ramadan and the Feast of Tabaski, and the availability of animal products (milk, etc.). Although they are also pastoral areas, Biltine and Dar Tama departments (in Wadi Fira) and Kanem and Wadi Bissam departments (in Kanem) will see no change in their respective levels of food insecurity after several years of crop production shortfalls (in the case of Kanem) and with their lack of diversified livelihoods.

In addition, Wayi department (in the Lac region) could be propelled into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with the definitive start of the lean season in farming areas and the poor cereal access in that area. The rest of the country will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity (Map 3).

AREAS OF CONCERN Southern part of the Lac region in livelihood zone 8 (“Western agropastoral and fishing zone”)

Current situation

Crop production Rainfed cereal production in the Lac region, including pearl millet, maize, rice, and sorghum production, is above the five- year average, but cereal stocks are being depleted sooner than usual (by February instead of March) with resident populations sharing their food supplies with refugees, returnees, and IDPs and the pressure on the food stocks of host households. Poor households will be market dependent as of March. This year’s growing season for cold off-season crops (November through March) which, as usual, will help bolster cereal availability as of April, could be jeopardized by the abandonment of farms and the smaller cropped areas due to the security situation.

Pastoral conditions There are currently available but smaller than average supplies of pasture for livestock, supplemented by crop residues from the harvest of rainfed crops, dry grasses, dead leaves, and woody plants. Thus, in spite of the precarious supply of pasture, livestock are still in good physical condition for the time being, though this will not be the case much longer, only through the end of February at best. The lean season in pastoral areas got underway at the end of January, two to three months early. There is no shortage of animal watering holes and animal health conditions are stable. Herd movements are disrupted by the security situation and the decline in livestock prices with the slowdown in trade has weakened terms of trade and household livelihoods.

Markets and prices Cereal supplies on markets in the Bol area are much smaller than usual with the security problems created by Boko Haram, disrupting the movement of people and goods to markets in that area. Normally, large quantities of maize are shipped from Lac to Kanem, Bahr El Gazal, and Hadjer Lamis at this time, which is not the case this year due to the security situation. There is a fairly low demand for cereals with the presence of sweet potatoes and provisions furnished by NGOs to DPs, which are being sold on local markets for good prices. Cereal prices have been elevated since the October 2015 harvest in spite of the production surplus. The price of maize on the Bol market in January 2016 was 195 CFAF/kg, 11 percent above the five-year average. Livestock prices are falling with the slowdown in exports to Nigeria, which is affecting the purchasing power of pastoral households.

Population movements There are close to 95,000 displaced persons, returnees, and refugees living in various camps, all within Mamdi department, as a result of the violence linked to Boko Haram. These population movements will continue in spite of the presence of a regional military force in that area.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

Farm labor There is a larger than normal supply of farm labor with the increasing size of the labor pool by the influx of returnees, IDPs, and refugees. On the other hand, there is less demand with households planting smaller areas in cold off-season crops. The interplay of these two factors has driven down the daily wage for farm labor from an average of 2000 CFAF/day to 1000 CFAF/day at present.

Assistance The humanitarian response has been hampered by security problems impeding access to target populations and a shortage of funding. The CERF (Central Emergency Response Fund) is the main donor for this crisis, but the amount of available funding will not enable it to fully meet the needs of the target population of close to 95,000 people. There are currently an estimated 60,000 beneficiaries. The projects approved by the CERF were scheduled to be implemented over a period of six months beginning in January 2016, providing emergency food and nutritional assistance, protection, and health and education services. The WFP is distributing food assistance and conducting blanket feeding operations and the FAO is distributing seeds and farming implements.

Food security situation The food security situation is currently stable but apt to deteriorate with the earlier than usual depletion of food stocks (by February instead of March) due to the pressure from returnees and refugees. Cereal demand is stable but inclined to rise, particularly once households consuming home-grown rainfed crops start resorting to market purchase as of March. The market in this area normally get small supplies of maize from rural households, but the security situation is restricting population movements, which is affecting supplies on the Bol market. Market supplies are also bolstered by the sale of foodstuffs furnished by humanitarian organizations (rice, oil, sorghum), though there are not enough of these food items. Even with the availability of cold off-season crops and market garden produce strengthening food stocks, the lower sales revenues from livestock due to their falling prices and from fish products with the ban on fishing activities are preventing poor households from meeting essential nonfood needs. Accordingly, these households are currently facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for February through September 2016 in the Lac region is based on the following assumptions in addition to the assumptions on nationwide conditions:

 Growing season for cold off-season crops: The April maize harvest in this area is expected to be below-average with the smaller areas planted in crops due to the security situation.  Markets and prices: Maize prices will be atypically high compared with the average (between April and August) on account of the expected poor off-season crop production, the higher price of fuel on which both hot and cold off-season crops are highly dependent for irrigation, the pressure from refugees, and the slowdown in trade. Higher transportation costs in conflict areas will also be a factor in driving up the price of maize, which has to be shipped to the Bol market from more remote areas. Fuel normally Figure 1. Projected trends in the retail price of maize on the Bol market, in imported from Nigeria will be brought in CFAF/kg from N’Djamena at a high cost. The projected price of maize in Bol in July Bol: Evolution et Projection du Prix de maïs 2016 is an estimated 48 percent above 400.0 the five-year average (Figure 1). 300.0  Sources of income for very poor and poor households: There will be a 200.0 contraction in many sources of income 100.0 during the outlook period. Thus: 0.0  Income-earning opportunities from wage labor will be limited by the smaller areas planted in crops (cold off-season crops, hot off-season crops, and rainfed Moy. 5 ans 2015/2016-Observe Projection 2016 crops) and the presence of returnees, refugees, and DPs, which have cut the Source: FEWS NET daily wage rate by 50 percent.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

 The combined effects of the refugee and IDP presence and smaller volume of production (for cold and hot off-season crops) will reduce income from crop sales in the first half of the outlook period (February through May) in spite of the above-average level of rainfed crop production, with households holding onto their food stocks for personal consumption and limiting the share earmarked for sale.  There will be less income from fishing activities with fishermen instructed by the government to leave island areas as a security measures.  There will be a below-normal flow of cash remittances (between February and June) due to the country’s current economic problems (nearly all construction sites have already shut down).  There will be fewer sales of livestock between February and May due to their poor physical condition and unfavorable prices, but there could be a larger volume of sales in the second half of the outlook period with the observance of Ramadan.  Between June and September, farming activities (land preparation work, crop planting activities, etc.) and livestock sales during the month of Ramadan could generate higher though still below-average levels of household income. Accordingly, in general, there will be more limited sources of income and poor households will incur more debt with the approach of the lean season.  Food consumption: There will be below-average levels of food consumption from household harvests and a deterioration in food consumption as of March with the depletion of food stocks as of the end of February by households sharing their cereal supplies and meals with refugees, returnees, and DPs. The security situation is preventing livestock from returning to island areas as usual, which means limited milk access with the shortage of pasture. The premature depletion of household food stocks and the expected smaller than average harvests of cold (November-March) and hot (June-September) off-season crops will translate into above-average numbers of market purchases on credit.  Nutritional situation: Based on the chronically troubling to critical global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate with a median value for the four last years between 12.7 and 18.3 percent in June/July, the poor food access during the lean season, and the outbreaks of seasonal diseases such as cholera between April and June, there will be rising levels of malnutrition through July, in line with seasonal trends. This will be followed by an improvement in acute malnutrition levels as of the beginning of August, extending into September, driven by the availability of milk, animal products, and early crops.  2016- 2017 growing season: There will be an average 2016-2017 growing season, with average harvests of rainfed crops.

Most likely food security outcomes

Between February and May, in spite of the above-average harvest of rainfed cereal crops, households sharing their meals with refugees, IDPs, and returnees will deplete their cereal stocks earlier than usual. Thus, area households will be market dependent by March instead of June, as is normally the case. However, with the shortage of market supplies due to the ongoing conflicts, food prices will be atypically high. The ensuing reduction in cereal consumption as of March/April 2016 will create food consumption gaps preventing households from meeting their food needs. In addition, the ban on fishing has effectively reduced fish consumption and income from fishing activities. Households will incur above-average levels of debt in attempting to expand their petty trading activities. However, this strategy will not succeed in bridging their food consumption gaps. Accordingly, poor households in the Lac region could be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions as of March, except in Wayi department less affected by security problems, where food security conditions will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Between June and September, the height of the lean season, the premature depletion of rainfed crops and the threat to harvests of cold off-season crops in February/March and hot off-season crops in June from the continuing conflict will drive the price of maize above-average. The combined effects of these elevated prices and their lower incomes will prevent households from bridging their food consumption gaps in the second half of the outlook period. There will be more reliance on wage labor and larger sales of livestock, which could deplete their livelihood assets. In the past, area households would scale up their fishing activities but, with the ban on fishing, these activities are no longer an effective source of income. As a result, poor households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In addition, Wayi department (in Lac) could be propelled into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation during this period with the definitive start of the lean season in farming areas, the limited milk availability, and the food consumption gaps resulting from poor cereal access with the steady rise in prices.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

Southern Bahr el Ghazel and Kanem regions – Livelihood zones 5 (“Central Agropastoral”) and 7 (“Transhumance”)

Current situation

Crop production Cereal production for the 2015-2016 season in both regions is below the five-year average (by 54 percent in Kanem and 27 percent in Bahr El Ghazel). The production shortfalls in these regions are a result of the truncated rainy season and infestations of grain-eating birds. Kanem has had production deficits for three consecutive years and the BEG region has had production deficits in three of the last five years. To make up for these deficits, households have expanded their market gardening activities, which started up promptly with the end of the growing season for rainfed crops and are still in progress, with widespread harvests of tomatoes, lettuce, eggplants, etc., which are smaller than usual. In general, harvests of market garden crops have been underway since January and, as usual, will extend through April/May with the harvesting of onion crops. The discovery of a gold deposit in Fitri (Batha) started a gold rush in June 2015, attracting large numbers of market gardeners, as well as other workers. This has scaled back the area planted in market garden crops, with the abandonment of nurseries and some farmers abstaining from these activities altogether, which is certain to limit market garden production. In response to this situation, poor households are selling more animals and heading to the Lac region to look for farm work in spite of the competition for available jobs from the refugee and DP presence in that area.

Farm labor Most farm workers migrate to the Lac region to work in reclaimed polder areas. However, with the massive influx of refugees and DPs, there is a larger than normal supply of labor, driving down the daily wage rate to nearly 50 percent below-average. The many workers rushing off to look for gold have come back practically empty-handed with the ban on these activities. Most of the prospectors from this area looking for gold are doing so informally, which is why the government decided to force everyone to leave and to impose a ban on these activities in order to better regulate them, but many laborers continue to search for gold. As a result, there will be sharp reduction in income from farm labor with the competition from the refugee and IDP presence in the Lac region and the abandonment of market gardening activities and smaller areas planted in these crops. Likewise, gold mining activities are expected to produce little if any income.

Pastoral conditions There are average levels of pasture this year. As usual, the lean season for local livestock has been underway since the beginning of February. There is a growing shortage of pasture in grazing areas around villages, forcing animals in Kanem and Barh El Gazal to travel long distances. While there may be pastures available at a certain distance, there is a critical shortage of animal watering holes in these areas. Animals are being fed and watered at boreholes and livestock wells, which is creating problems with jostling and sparking fights around these water sources. Nevertheless, animals are in only slightly below- average physical condition. There is very limited milk availability, with no milk supplies whatsoever in some areas due to the deterioration in the physical condition of local livestock with the growing shortage of pasture and with animal watering holes running dry earlier than usual. Cereal markets There is above-average cereal demand, driven by the premature depletion of household cereal stocks (by February instead of April/May) and earlier than usual market dependence of area households. Cereal supplies are lower than usual on account of : (1) the shortfall in production in Kanem for the third consecutive year and in BEG in three of the last five years, including this year; (2) the disruption in trade between Lac and neighboring regions by the security situation; and (3) the expected limited availability of off-season crops (maize and berbéré) and their inability to significantly improve market supplies as of March or help stabilize or eventually bring down prices on markets in crop-producing areas. Thus, market prices for cereals are beginning to rise. As of January 2016, sorghum prices in Mao (Kanem) were above the five-year average by 28 percent and millet prices by eight percent, with maize prices still relatively close to average (+3 percent). Prices for sorghum, maize, and millet In Moussoro (BEG) are above the five-year average by 14 percent, 13 percent, and five percent, respectively. There are average market supplies of imported rice compared with the norm owing to the massive presence of Libyan traders, who are beginning to frequent the Mao and Moussoro markets, selling foodstuffs such as food pastes, macaroni, rice, etc., which has not been the case for a number of years due to the conflicts in Libya.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

Livestock markets Supplies on all livestock markets in Kanem and Bahr El Ghazel continue to outstrip demand by a wide margin, causing livestock prices to decrease, although a few buyers from Libya have recently been spotted on the Mao market. The situation in this region has been more or less the same for more than two years with the closure of the country’s borders with Libya and Nigeria and the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. Prices for camels, sheep, and goats on the livestock markets in Moussoro and Mao are all below-average.

Cross-border trade with Libya In spite of the official closure of the border, there are reports of a few trucks from Libya still delivering foodstuffs such as flour, canned goods, food pastes, etc. to the Mao and Moussoro markets. However, there has been a sharp drop in the volume of livestock exports with the sociopolitical instability and security problems in Libya.

Cross-border trade with Nigeria The closure of the country’s border with this important neighboring country since August 2014 continues to adversely affect demand and prices for livestock and all types of cross-border trade, limiting the flow of supplies to markets in Sahelian areas highly dependent on imports of manufactured goods from Nigeria. Cross-border trade has slowed considerably in the last few years. The prices of previously more affordable Nigerian goods have doubled if not tripled.

Humanitarian assistance Farmers growing market garden crops in Kanem and Bahr El Ghazal have received multiform assistance, including seeds and market gardening kits. Certain international organizations are also continuing to operate cash transfer and blanket feeding programs. The WFP is planning a general food distribution with full rations (between January and March and May and August), a blanket feeding operation (between January and April), and a cash transfer program (in April) for 90,000 recipients (135,000 between May and August), including 19 ,800 children under two years of age.

Nutritional situation As far as the nutritional situation is concerned, Kanem reported 24,173 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in 2015, which was 13 percent above the five-year average. BEG reported 11,608 cases of SAM in that same year, which was 17 percent below the five-year average. However, there were seasonal declines in admissions rates for malnutrition in the last quarter of 2015 (during the post-harvest period) in both Kanem and Bahr El Ghazel.

Current food security situation With the shortfalls in crop production compared with the average (-54 percent in Kanem and -27 percent in Bahr El Ghazel) and disruptions in trade from the Lac region on which both regions are especially dependent for their food supplies, food stocks began to be depleted in February instead of April/May, as is normally the case, with poor households starting to rely on market purchase. However, rising prices are preventing poor households from meeting their food needs. In response, certain workers from Kanem and BEG have headed to the Lac region to look for work in polder areas, though their numbers are smaller than usual with part of this workforce flocking to Batha to look for gold. At the same time, there is less income- generation from farm labor in the Lac region with the larger numbers of refugees and DPs in that area and the limited demand for labor with the smaller areas planted in cold off-season crops. Thus, with the reduction in income from farm and nonfarm labor, the high prices of cereals, the limited milk production, and the below-normal levels of food stocks, poor households are forced to forego certain types of spending and are having trouble meeting their basic food needs. Accordingly, their food security situation has deteriorated since the last quarter of 2015, putting both the southern Kanem and the southern BEG areas in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for February through September 2016 in the southern Kanem and southern BEG areas is based on the following assumptions in addition to the assumptions on nationwide conditions:

 Cereal markets: There will be a demand for cereals, fueled by the cereal deficits in Kanem for three consecutive years and in BEG in three of the last five years and the expected earlier than usual depletion of cereal stocks by February. There will be smaller than average market supplies with the disruption in trade from the Lac region. Thus, there could be fairly sharp atypical rises in prices.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

 (Cold) off-season crop production: There will be below-average levels of crop production with the abandonment of maize crops planted in garden plots and wadi areas as many households leave in search of gold. This will also be the case for market garden crops.  Farm labor: There will be a decline in wage income with the competition for on-farm employment opportunities in the Lac region due to the refugee and DP presence in that area and the resulting reduction in earnings from farm labor. There will be a fairly limited local demand for labor for the usual land clearing work beginning in April/May. Farming activities (land preparation work, crop planting activities, etc.) between June and September could generate some extra cash for poor households, but income levels from these activities will be lower than average.  Trends in the GAM rate during the outlook period: Normal seasonal trends in rates of malnutrition and of respiratory infections and diseases such as malaria affecting nutrition will heighten the prevalence of child malnutrition, which will continue to steadily rise throughout the lean season (April through July). The nutritional situation in the BEG and Kanem regions has been critical for the last four years, with malnutrition rates above the WHO critical threshold level (≥15 percent) in Kanem and a median confidence interval of 14.1 to 21.6 pour cent in BEG in June-July. There will be no improvement in these levels of malnutrition and undernutrition until the beginning of August, with the availability of milk, animal products, and early crops.  The conflict and resulting population movements: Based on previous movements by certain IDPs from the Lac region into Kanem to avoid the atrocities perpetrated by Boko Haram, who have been assimilated into local villages, a new influx of DPs into the area can be expected during the outlook period in the event of an escalation in the crisis in Lac or a further deterioration in the security situation.  Livestock markets: The ban on livestock exports to Nigeria will continue to create a larger than usual supply of animals on local markets, with prices steadily declining, particularly in the first half of the outlook period (February through May), driven down by a low local demand. There could be a slight improvement in this source of income in the second half of the outlook period (June through September) with the expected rise in livestock prices in June/July during the month of Ramadan.  Livestock sales: Livestock sales will pick up in the second half of the outlook period (June through September) with the new pasture growth and resulting improvement in the physical condition of animals, enabling households to meet their food needs and cope with rising food prices, though price levels will stay below-average. Households will still hold onto a few animals with which to rebuild their herds, particularly female breeding animals.  Crop sales: Households will not have enough crops this year to enable them to sell part of their harvest due to their low crop yields and depleted food stocks after three consecutive years of cereal deficits. Their small sales of market garden crops will not suffice to enable them to build adequate cereal stocks.  Sales of wood/straw: Sales of wood will be ramped up in the first half of the outlook period (February through May) to help households maintain their food access, but the competition will limit sales revenues from these activities. With the ban on excessive logging activities and the growing shortage of trees in an area threatened by desertification, there will be less income from this source in the second half of the outlook period.  Sales of wild plant foods: Wild plant foods are available for a fairly limited period of time (through February) and are not an important source of food in this semi-desert area. However, there will be more recourse than usual to this source of food in the first half of the outlook period (February through May) to help mitigate food shortages. Income from the sale of these foods will be limited with the many households resorting to this same strategy.

Most likely food security outcomes

Between February and May, household food stocks will be nearly depleted by February after three consecutive years of cereal deficits and local households will be completely market dependent. However, markets will be short of supplies on account of the low levels of crop production and disruption in trade from the Lac region. Rising cereal prices fueled by a growing demand will curtail the food access of poor households. Sources of income such as the picking of dates, the sale of wood, farm labor, and petty trade will be more limited than usual. This could trigger a deterioration in the food security situation of poor households. Households will incur above-average levels of debt in order to purchase cereal supplies and will be much more reliant on remittances from family members. They will also continue to flock to gold mining areas in spite of the ban on these activities. However, with the nation’s economic problems, none of these strategies will enable them to bridge their food consumption gaps, prompting them to reduce their food consumption and turn to less desirable foods, which are also less expensive. This reaction could have negative effects on malnutrition rates. Moreover, not only will these strategies fail to completely offset the effects of cereal deficits and the high market prices of cereal crops, but their larger than usual sales of livestock could also create livelihood protection deficits. Accordingly, Wadi Bissam, Kanem, and Southern

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CHAD Food Security Outlook February through September 2016

Bahr El Gazal departments previously classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will be in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) stage of food insecurity between February and May. Between June and September, the total depletion of their food stocks during the lean season and high level of cereal prices, combined with their lower incomes from wage labor and the plunge in prices for livestock, will continue to prevent poor households in this area from bridging their large food consumption gaps during this period. There will be a pick-up in sales of livestock, particularly small ruminants, and dairy products, which could deplete their livelihood assets but will not bridge their large food consumption gaps, forcing them to reduce their food consumption. Accordingly, poor households in all three departments (Wadi Bissam, Kanem, and Southern Bahr El Gazal) will remain in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation through September.

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the outlook

Area Event Impact on food security conditions Late start of the rainy season  Need to replant crops, fewer arable areas, and less crop production Flooding  Losses and destruction of crops  Limited income-earning opportunities from farming activities Poor distribution of rainfall  Fewer areas with harvestable crops and/or abrupt end of the rainy  Limited employment opportunities for farm labor season  Delay in harvests of early crops National Unusual infestations of crop  Lower yields and smaller harvests pests (grasshoppers, grain-eating  Limited job offers for farm labor birds, caterpillars, etc.) Cereal sales at subsidized prices  Stabilization of cereal prices in localized areas by the National Food Security  Improvement in cereal access for poor households Agency (ONASA)

Presidential elections  Slowdown in business activity and disruption in trade

Lake Chad area New attacks by Boko Haram  Abandonment of farms and smaller areas with harvestable crops  Smaller harvests of off-season and rainfed crops for 2016  Disruption in trade and higher prices  Reduced food consumption  Disruption of livelihoods  Market closures Kanem and BEG Resumption of livestock exports  Improvement in terms of trade for pastoral households to Nigeria

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of basic assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios predicting food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET bases its projections on the most likely scenario. Learn more here.

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