N°22 BUSINESS MIR JULY ECONOMIC 2009 ALL ARTICLES IN THE BULLETIN ARE PROVIDED BY FC-NOVOSTI INFORMATION AGENCY, MOSCOW, WWW.RFCM.RU BULLETIN RUSSIAN FEDERATION WWW.FCINFO.RU TO KEEP UP–TO–DATE ON THE LATEST RUSSIAN ECONOMIC NEWS CONTENTS ECONOMIC SURVEY SUBSCRIPTION REVIEW OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 1H09 2 TO THE MONTHLY BUSINESS MIR BANKING AND FINANCE 6 ECONOMIC BULLETIN FOR ONE YEAR GLOBAL CRISIS NEWS 7 In Switzerland: 80 CHF INDUSTRY REPORTS 8 Outside Switzerland: INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 8 160 CHF INVESTMENT PROJECTS 100 € 9 135 $ LAW AND LEGISLATION 11 70 £ 5000 Rbs MACROECONOMICS 14 E-mail: [email protected] MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS 17 NEWS OF KEY COMPANIES 17 RATINGS 19 REGIONS 19 STATE CONTROL 19 STOCK MARKET 19 Business Mir magazine (www.businessmir.ch) MACROECONOMIC AND POLITICAL We would like to inform you that apart from is launching a new monthly bulletin, RISKS IN RUSSIA: Business Mir Economic Bulletin printed Business Mir Economic Bulletin devoted to version, there exists an opportunity to receive Macroeconomic and Political Risks in Russia. 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Office 5015, 4 Zubovsky Boulevard, Carrefour de Rive 1 Moscow 119021 CH–1207 GENEVA Or call: + 7 (495) 637-71-06, 645-66-84 Business Mir in the Internet: SWITZERLAND www.businessmir.ch Phone: +4122 735 32 17 Cost of monthly subscription for daily Internet Fax: +4122 735 32 18 versions: E-mail: [email protected] RFCM – $ 120 RFCM/Regions - $ 80 ISSN 1662 - 2006 RFCM + RFCM/Regions - $ 150 2 The nominal amount of GDP in the first six months of 209 You can order analytical surveys and economic was RUR18.221tn, according to preliminary estimates, out analyses according to your fields of interest of which GDP in the second quarter equalled RUR9.383tn. and needs by contacting us at [email protected] According to the Economic Development Ministry’s prelimi- nary estimates, Russian GDP dropped by 10.1% in the first half of the year. However, growth of industrial production, ad- justed to seasonal and calendar factors, was 0.8%, said Min- ister Elvira Nabiullina. The GDP dynamics slowed down in the first six months of the year due to a decline both in exports and in domestic de- mand – a decrease of investment and a drastic slowdown of household consumption. 2. Industry and Manufacturing The industrial production index in June 2009 was 87.9% ECONOMIC SURVEY against the same period of last year. The index for the first REVIEW OF THE six months was 85.2%. Industrial production indices, % against the average monthly result of 2006 RUSSIAN 125 120 115 ECONOMY 110 105 100 IN 1H09 95 90 85 80 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II IIIIV V VIVII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI 2007 2008 2009 aggregate amount trend According to preliminary estimates of the Economic Develop- The production index in mining was 96.0% in June and ment Ministry, Russia’s GDP dropped by 10.1% in the first six 96.6% in the first six months against respective periods of months of 2009. However, growth of industrial production, last year. with adjusted seasonal and calendar factors, was 0.8%. The manufacturing index was 84.0% and 78.7% respectively. 1. GDP The index in the production and distribution of electricity, Dynamics of Russian GDP in 2006-2009, in market prices, bn roubles gas and water was 92.1% and 94.4% respectively. 14000 Retail turnover in June 2009 was RUR1.1778tn, which is 11563 12000 6.5% less than in June 2008 in mass of commodities. In the 10741 first six months of 2009, it fell 3.0% to RUR6.800tn. 9739 10000 9383 8914 9217 8731 Construction work completed in June 2009 amounted to 8203 8000 RUR348.0bn, or 80.4% against a year before. In the first half 7425 7306,7 6788 6992,9 of 2009, it was RUR1.5588tn, or 80.7%. 6343 5722 6000 The number of new flats built by organisations of all forms of ownership was 55,900 in June and 233,900 in January-June. 4000 2000 3. Consumer Prices Index and Inflation 0 The consumer prices index in June 2009 was 100.6%, with 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarte 4th quarter prices of food products growing and services 0.5%, and of non-food products 0.8%. 2006 2007 2008 2009 3 In Moscow, the consumer prices index was 100.8% in June The population’s real disposable monetary income, % against the average monthly result of 2006 and 108.0% since the beginning of the year. In St Peters- 170 burg, it was 100.5% and 107.9%, respectively. 160 150 140 The average monthly cost of a fixed set of consumer goods 130 and services for interregional comparison of the popula- 120 110 tion’s purchasing power was RUR7,626.30 at the end of 100 June, up 0.7% over the month and 9.4% since the beginning 90 80 of the year. 78 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II IIIIVVVIVII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IVVVI 2007 2008 2009 Its cost in Moscow grew 0.7% and 8.3% respectively, to actual data RUR10,666. In St Petersburg, it was RUR8,071.90, an in- excluding seasonal factors crease of 0.4% and 6.4%. trend Food prices grew 0.5% in June 2009 compared to the previ- 2.1mn people were registered with government employment ous month (in June 2008, they increased 1.1%). services, out of which 1.8mn people received unemploy- ment benefits. The average monthly cost of a minimum food basket in Rus- sia was RUR2,270.60 at the end of June, up 1.4% from the The average gross monthly payroll in June 2009 was end of May and 7.3% from the beginning of the year. RUR18,907, according to preliminary estimates, which is an increase of 6.1% compared to June 2008. The cost of the basket in Moscow grew 1.6% and 9.9% re- spectively to RUR2,571.30. In St Petersburg, it was up 1.3% Dynamics of gross payroll in 2007-2009 roubles and 6.1% to RUR2,450.80. 25000 Prices of food products rose 0.8% in June 2009 (compared 20000 to an increase of 0.7% in June 2008). Prices and tariffs of 15000 services were up 0.5% in June 2009 (up 1.1% in June 2008). 10000 The index of industrial producer prices in June 2009 was 5000 102.2%, according to preliminary estimates (110% since the beginning of the year). 0 July May April June March August January October February November December 4. Living Standards and Population’s Income September Indices of consumer prices and industrial producer prices, 2007 2008 2009 % against December 2006 106 104 The average gross monthly payroll in the first six months of 102 2009 was RUR17,875. 100 98 96 The aggregate wages arrears in the monitored spheres of 94 economic operation as of July 1, 2009, was RUR7.194bn, 92 down 18.0% from June 1, 2009. 90 XII II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII I II IIIIVVVIVIIVIII IX X XI XII I II III IVVVI 2006 2007 2008 2009 The amount of delayed wages on July 1 equalled about 2% consumer prices of the monthly wage fund for employees in the monitored industrial producer prices economic sectors. In education, healthcare, social services and culture, it was 0.1%. The real disposable monetary income (income excluding obligatory payments and adjusted to the consumer prices Delays caused by untimely receipt of funds from all levels of index) dropped by 1% in June 2009 against June 2008, ac- budgets amounted to RUR270mn, or 3.7% of the total delays. cording to preliminary estimates. In the first half of 2009, it remained the same as a year before. 5. Foreign Trade The economically active population numbered 76.1mn peo- ple in June 2009, or over 53% of the country’s entire popula- Russia’s foreign trade turnover in January-May 2009 fell by tion. 44.5% against the same period of last year to $168.9bn. At the end of June, 6.3mn people, or 8.3% of the workforce, Exports plunged 47.3% to $102.6bn and imports 39.4% to were classified as unemployed (in compliance with the $66.3bn. Russia’s foreign trade surplus plummeted 56.5% methodology of the World Labour Organisation).