Journal of Issue 32 / Autumn 2001 / £4.00 Liberal DemocratHISTORY Britain’s new left? Professor John Curtice The 2001 election Implications for the Liberal Democrats Nick Cott Liberal unity frustrated The Asquith–Lloyd George split Ian Hunter The quest for Liberal reunion 1943–46 Liberals and Liberal Nationals Tony Little and Duncan Brack Great Liberal Speeches Liberal Democrat History Group’s new book Jaime Reynolds ‘Jimmy’ Biography of James de Rothschild MP Liberal Democrat History Group Issue 32: Autumn 2001 Journal of Liberal Democrat History The Journal of Liberal Democrat History is published quarterly by the Liberal Democrat History Group. 3 The 2001 election ISSN 1463-6557 Editor: Duncan Brack Professor John Curtice on the lessons of the 7 June election for Liberal Democrats Assistant Editor: Alison Smith Reviews Editor: Sam Crooks 6 Liberal unity frustrated Patrons Nick Cott examines the Asquith–Lloyd George split in the Liberal Party Professor Eugenio Biagini Professor Michael Freeden Professor Earl Russell 12 The quest for Liberal reunion 1943–46 Professor John Vincent Ian Hunter on the failed attempts to reunify Liberals and Liberal Nationals Editorial Board Dr Malcolm Baines; Dr Roy Douglas; Dr Barry 17 Impacts of reunification? Doyle; Dr David Dutton; Professor David Gowland; Dr Richard Grayson; Dr Michael Hart; Jaime Reynolds examines the potential electoral impacts of a reunion in the 1940s Peter Hellyer; Ian Hunter; Dr Robert Ingham; Dr J. Graham Jones; Tony Little; Professor Ian Machin; Dr Mark Pack; Dr John Powell; Iain Sharpe 21 Great Liberal Speeches Editorial/Correspondence Tony Little and Duncan Brack introduce the History Group’s latest book Contributions to the Journal – letters, articles, and book reviews – are invited. The Journal is a refereed publication; all articles submitted will 22 Liberals cheer Mr Churchill be reviewed. Contributions should be sent to: At the National Liberal Club, 22 July 1943 Duncan Brack (Editor) 38 Salford Road, London SW2 4BQ email: [email protected] 24 ‘Jimmy’ All articles copyright © their authors. The life and career of James de Rothschild MP, by Jaime Reynolds Advertisements 28 Liberal Party membership Adverts are welcome; please contact the Editor for rates. Robert Ingham answers a query on the topic of Liberal membership Subscriptions/Membership 30 Letters to the Editor An annual subscription to the Journal of Liberal Democrat History costs £10.00 (£5.00 unwaged Alan Beith MP; Hugh Pagan rate). This includes membership of the History Group unless you inform us otherwise. Overseas subscribers should add £5.00; or, a 31 Report: Post-war Liberalism and the special three-year rate is available for politics of race and immigration £40.00 total. Cheques (payable to ‘Liberal Democrat History with Lord Dholakia and Shammit Saggar; report by Sue Simmonds Group’) should be sent to: Patrick Mitchell 6 Palfrey Place, London SW8 1PA; 33 Reviews email: [email protected] Jo and Laura Grimond: A Selection of Memories and Photographs 1945–1994; reviewed by Geoffrey Sell; Paul Scherer: Lord John Russell; reviewed by Conrad Cover design concept: Lynne Featherstone Russell; Tom Reilly: Cromwell : An Honourable Enemy; reviewed by Tony Little; Published by the Liberal Democrat History Group, Eric Hopkins: Charles Masterman (1873–1927): Politician and Journalist – The c/o 38 Salford Road, London SW2 4BQ Splendid Failure; reviewed by Lawrence Irvine Iles Printed by Kall-Kwik, 426 Chiswick High Road, London W4 5TF September 2001 2 Journal of Liberal Democrat History 32 Autumn 2001 Election analysis Professor John Curtice examines the Liberal Democrat performance in the election of 7 June 2001 and draws lessons for the party’s future strategy TheThe 20012001 electionelection Implications for the Liberal Democrats our years ago, few in the party would have decided to stand down. Where this was the case the Fhoped for such a good result. Not only did party’s vote actually fell – by nearly % on average the Liberal Democrats retain all but two of the – though it had the good fortune not to lose any record haul of seats they won in , but they seats as a result, giving the new incumbents the even managed to emerge with half a dozen more chance to develop a local reputation for themselves MPs. Moreover, in contrast to the party also over the next four years. stemmed the decline in its overall share of the The party’s success in consolidating its position vote that had been taking place at every election in those seats it gained in has one very impor- since . tant consequence for its future. So long as the Lib- But political parties can rarely afford to rest on eral Democrats can keep on winning around a fifth their laurels. No sooner is one election over and it or so of the national vote, the days when it could has to think about how it can maximise its chances muster no more than two dozen MPs appear to at the next one. And as well as affirming the success have disappeared for good. The party’s break- of the strategy the party has pursued hitherto, the through in owed much to the collapse in the election also poses some key questions about Conservative vote. Because it tends to win more what its strategy should be in the future. votes in Conservative- than in Labour-held seats, Both the basis of the party’s current success and the party could profit from the decline in Con- the questions it faces about its future can be seen servative support in a way that it could not in , from looking at where the party managed to in- when it was Labour’s vote that fell away. But by crease its vote most in the election. One kind consolidating its vote in those seats it won four of seat where the party typically did relatively well years ago, the party has now begun to insulate itself comprises those marginal constituencies it was de- from the impact of any future Conservative revival. fending, together with some of those that it had Even if, at some point in the future, the Conserva- most hope of gaining. The other kind, however, was tives were to secure a lead over Labour as big as that very different in character, consisting of working- which Labour enjoyed over the Conservatives in class Labour seats where the party has traditionally June, the Liberal Democrats should still be able to found it hardest to secure support. win around three dozen seats. The party’s success in defending and capturing Meanwhile, as well as hanging on to all but two seats appears to be a vindication of a well-estab- of the seats it currently holds, the party also man- lished theme in the party’s strategy – local activity aged to pick up six seats from the Conservatives and targeting. Amongst the seats the party was de- and one from Labour, as well as to retain the by- fending, it easily did best in those which it had won election gain of Romsey, made at the expense of for the first time in , and where the new in- the Conservatives in May . These gains were cumbent MP had had an opportunity over the last made despite the fact that the Conservatives gener- four years to develop a reputation as a good con- ally enjoyed above-average increases in the share of stituency member. On average, the party’s vote rose the vote in those seats they were defending. The by no less than .% in such seats, well above the key to the party’s success here appears to have been .% average increase enjoyed across the country as its targeting efforts. It generally performed about a whole. As if to underline the importance of local four points better in targeted seats where the Con- reputation, the party struggled most to hang on to servatives were being challenged as it did in non- its vote where the local Liberal Democrat MP had targeted seats. This largely appears to have been Journal of Liberal Democrat History 32 Autumn 2001 3 higher than the .% (up from .%) that the party won in Labour-held seats. Moreover, seats where the party is sec- ond to the Conservatives () still out- number those where it is second to La- bour (). New voters for the Liberal Democrats The significance of the party’s relative success in more working-class Labour Britain lies not in any immediate transformation of the geography of Liberal Democrat support but rather as an indication of how New Labour’s continued determination to occupy the ideological centre of British poli- tics may be changing the kind of voter achieved by squeezing the Labour vote typically rose by a percentage point or the Liberal Democrats are able to woo. in seats that for the most part were so more than the national norm. Mean- There is a hint of this in ICM’s sum- ones where the Liberal Democrats had while it was in these kinds of seats that mary of all the polls they conducted not been such strong credible local Labour’s vote fell most heavily. during the election. Compared with challengers before, and where, thus, This relative success in Labour Brit- , the Liberal Democrats’ share of the incentive for Labour supporters to ain is not a wholly new phenomenon; it the vote was no higher than it was in vote tactically had not previously been was also apparent in local elections dur- amongst the most middle-class so great. ing the – parliament. Equally, AB social group, whereas it rose by Targeting in those seats where La- its impact should not be exaggerated. four points amongst the skilled work- bour was being challenged does appear, The difference between the party’s ing-class Cs as well as by two points though, to have had a more mixed share of the vote in the typical middle- amongst the DEs.