Chapter One Setting the Scientific Stage

I. The Deep History of the Earth 3 II. The Progression of Climate Science 16 III. Where We Are Now 26 A. An Urgent Present 26 B. Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Global Response to Climate Change (2005) 29 C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 32 D. Science and the Supreme Court 60 E. The Law-Science Interface 71 1. Science in the Bureaucracy: Suppress, Manipulate, Modify and “Spin” 73 a. NASA (National Aeronautics & Space Administration) 73 b. NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) 74 c. CEQ (Council on Environmental Quality) 74 d. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) 77 e. The 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 79 f. John Grant on Lysenkoism 80 g. Union of Concerned Scientists: Big Tobacco Uncertainty Tactics 80 h. Drawing the Lines 81 2. The Use of Daubert Motions 81 3. Legal Retaliation Against a Strategy of “Fictionalization” of Global Warming Science 83

Chapter Two The Justice of Transformative Change and the Spread of Global Fever

I. When, Where, and How: A Simple Matter of Six Degrees 108 A. One Degree 109 B. Two Degrees 109 C. Three Degrees 112 D. Four Degrees 113 E. Five Degrees 114 F. Six Degrees 114 II. Justice in a Warmer World 115 A. Generally 115 B. Perspectives of Law 130 1. International Law 130 a. Intergenerational Equity 130 b. International Human Rights Law 139 c. Elaborations of Law 165

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III. Transformation of the Arctic: The “Barometer” of Indigenous Peoples 179 A. Baseline 2002: Traditional Ecological Knowledge 179 B. Baseline 2004: The Old Arctic 181 C. 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 183 D. Eyewitnesses to History: Loss of Ice 185 E. The Polar Bear 192 F. The New Grave-Robbers 200 G. Global Warming Remedies in the Arctic 217 1. Indian Trust Doctrine 218 2. Civil Rights Act / Environmental Justice 219 3. Aboriginal Rights 227 4. Subsistence Rights 227 5. Treaty Rights 227 6. Petition to International Bodies 227 7. Common Law 229 8. Muddling Through with Partial Help from State and Federal Aid Programs 234 9. The Alien Tort Claims Act and the Small Island Nations 237

Chapter Three The Health of the Planet: The Atmosphere, the Earth, the Sea, the Residents

I. Introduction 243 II. A Human Future 245 III. The Atmosphere, Oceans, and Climate: Supporting Services or Blanket of Life? 260 A. Ecosystem Services 261 B. Biodiversity 275 IV. The Carbon Cycle 294 A. The Oceans 295 B. The Forests 296 V. The Earth’s Waters 298 A. The Oceans 298 B. Freshwater Ecosystems 359 VI. The Earth’s Terrestrial Surfaces 422 A. Public Lands 422 B. Forests 441 C. Rangelands 453 D. Farmlands 460 VII. Fire and Flood 477 A. Fire and the Health of the Lands 477 B. Floods & Storms 498 1. Small Island States 498 2. Hurricane Katrina 501 3. Flood Insurance 504 CONTENTS 3

Chapter Four Reconstructed Energy Futures

I. Introduction 511 A. Global Warming and the Resource Curse 512 B. The Fork in the Road 515 1. What We Did Not Do 516 2. What We Did 522 II. Finite-Resource Fuels 547 A. Coal 547 B. Oil & Natural Gas 654 C. Nuclear 710 III. Renewables 721 A. Energy Efficiency 722 B. Dismantling the Grid 726 C. Wind Power 730 D. Solar Power 732 E. Geothermal 733 F. Hydrogen 733 G. Biofuels 734 H. Ocean Energy 734 I. Hydropower 735 IV. Energy Security 736

Chapter Five Framing the Climate Change Debate

Framing Global Climate Change 741

Chapter Six United States’ Response to Climate Change

I. The Political Environment: The Deep History of Denial 798 A. The Rejection of Kyoto 798 B. Denial by the Bush II Administration 800 C. Interference with Government Scientists 802 D. President Obama’s Plans 803 II. Congressional Action 809 A. Past Proposals: Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act 809 4 CONTENTS

1. Viewpoints on the Act 810 2. Climate Principles 824 B. Future Proposals: A Framework for Evaluating U.S. Climate Change Policy 825 III. Climate Policy Architecture 837 A. Public Opinion 837 B. Economic Considerations 840 C. The Astonishing Stern Review 850 D. Other Views 855 1. Lomborg 855 2. Hodas 856 3. Pierce 857 4. Driesen 859 E. Alternatives to Cap and Trade 859 F. Energy Subsidies 861 G. Rethinking Today’s Market Economy 864 H. Regulated Entities 869 1. Federalism 869 2. Individuals & Big Emitters 870 3. Revisiting the Politics of Regulation 873 a. The Elusiveness of Truth: The Example of Offshore Oil Drilling 873 b. The Importance of Process: Conducting a Hearing 877 c. Memories of Deregulation 878 IV. Adaptation 880 V. Technology: Do We Have What It Takes? 894

Chapter Seven The International Law and Policy of Climate Change

I. Introduction to International Climate Change Policy 911 A. Establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 911 B. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 914 1. The Kyoto Protocol 914 2. The Bali Roadmap 914 C. The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize: Al Gore and the IPCC 915 1. Al Gore Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, Oslo, December 10, 2007 916 2. Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Delivered by R.K. Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC, Oslo, December 10, 2007 (excerpt) 921 II. Kyoto: Too Little, Too Soon 926 III. The Significance of Copenhagen 940 IV. What Comes Next? The New Geopolitics of Climate Change 940 A. National Security Concerns 940 V. The Role of Developing Nations in Climate Change 944 A. India 944 CONTENTS 5

B. Africa 967 C. China 988 VI. The Search for a New International Law That Works 100 7 A. The Enforcement of International Climate Change Law 1009 B. A Theory of Atmospheric Trust Litigation 1018 VII. International Environmental Law 1041 VIII. Adaptation to Climate Change 1055 A. Climate Refugees 1057

Chapter Eight Local, State, Regional, Tribal and Private Climate Change Initiatives

I. Introduction 1061 A. The Impossibility Theorem 1061 B. The “Faking-It” Theorem 1062 C. The “Futility” Theorem 1064 D. No-Regrets Policy 1067 E. The “Laboratory” Theorem 1067 II. Local Initiatives 1069 A. Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement 1069 B. Mayors’ Climate Performance Initiative 1070 III. State Initiatives 1074 A. Why the States? 1074 B. What Have the States Done? 1076 1. Introduction 1076 2. Particulars of State Programs 1091 a. State Climate Action Plans 1092 b. Renewable Portfolio Standards 1094 c. Regulation of Coal-Fired Power Plants 1096 d. State Automobile Emission Standards 1100 e. More on the California Experience 1103 3. Other State Responses on Urgent Issues of Climate Change 1106 4. Scholarship: State Action and Beyond 1148 IV. Regional Initiatives 1149 V. Tribal Initiatives 1151 A. Introduction 1151 B. Tribes and Climate 1156 VI. Private Initiatives: Global Warming and the Individual 1169 6 CONTENTS

Chapter Nine Legal Initiatives Designed to Turn the Tide on Climate Change

I. Introduction CD-3 II. Helpful Typologies: Gerrard and Meltz CD-5 III. The Principal Domestic U.S. Legal Foci: Clean Air Act, NEPAs and SEPAs, Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Energy Laws, Coal-Plant Challenges, and Common Law CD-7 A. Clean Air Act CD-7 1. Massachusetts v. EPA CD-7 2. Progeny of Massachusetts v. EPA : Action-Forcing Petitions under the Clean Air Act CD-11 a. Nonroad Vehicles and Engines CD-11 b. Aircraft and Vessels CD-12 B. NEPA and SEPAs CD-15 C. Endangered Species Act and the Marine Mammal Protection Act CD-37 1. The Statutory Framework CD-37 2. Thinking through Responses CD-54 3. Legal Initiatives CD-57 a. Kittlitz’s Murrelet and the Elkhorn and Staghorn Corals CD-57 b. The Polar Bear Petition CD-60 D. Energy Statutes and the CAFE Standards CD-63 1. Energy Policy Conservation Act CD-65 2. National Environmental Policy Act CD-66 E. Coal-Plant Challenges CD-70 F. Common Law CD-75 1. Elaborations of Kivalina CD-89 2. The Common Law of Hurricanes CD-96 IV. Petitions for Government Initiatives CD-99 A. The SEC Disclosure Petition CD-99 1. Current Forms of Climate Change Disclosure CD-99 2. The 2007 SEC Climate Change Disclosure Petition CD-115 B. Shareholder Proposals CD-128 C. The Ocean Acidification Petitions to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Coastal States CD-131 1. Federal Petition CD-133 2. State Petitions CD-137 D. Exxon Valdez Reopener Petition CD-139 V. The Practice of Law CD-145 A. Corporate Responses CD-145 B. Insurance Industry Responses CD-155