CLIMATE AND SECURITY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Giovanna Kuele and Alice Amorim, eds. 2019 IGARAPÉ INSTITUTE | DECEMBER 2019 INDEX INTRODUCTION Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Giovanna Kuele and Alice Amorim ................. 2 HOW CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS MAGNIFY ECONOMIC AND SECURITY VULNERABILITIES CASE STUDY: VENEZUELA AND ITS NEIGHBORS Oliver Leighton Barrett ......................................................................................... 13 CLIMATE CHANGE, INEQUALITY AND SECURITY IN COLOMBIA: SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE SUBJECT Saul Rodriguez ............................................ 27 CLIMATE CHANGE, SOCIAL CONFLICT AND THE COMPLEXIFICATION OF CRIME IN BOLIVIA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF FLOODS AND STORMS IN CHAPARE AS A COCA GROWING REGION Marilia Closs ............ 40 TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED GOVERNANCE OF TRANSBOUNDARY AQUIFERS IN SOUTH AMERICA: BALANCING SECURITY, HUMAN RIGHTS AND TERRITORIALITY Beatriz Mendes Garcia Ferreira ......................................... 52 CLIMATE AND SECURITY IN BRAZIL: THE ROLE OF THE PRESS IN THE DISCUSSION AND PROMOTION OF PUBLIC POLICIES Eloisa Beling Loose ..... 64 CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY IN THE AMAZON: VULNERABILITY AND RISKS FOR INDIGENOUS PEOPLES ON THE ACRE - UCAYALI BORDER Marco Cepik and Hannah Machado Cepik ................................................................ 76 CLIMATE EVIDENCE-BASED POLICING: THE INFLUENCE OF RAINFALL ON THE CRIMINAL DYNAMICS OF THE CITY OF MANAUS Moisés Israel Silva dos Santos, Antônio Gelson de Oliveira Nascimento, Márcio de Souza Correa and Charlis Barroso da Rocha ......................................................................................................... 90 CLIMATE SECURITY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: AGGRAVATING DOMESTIC PUBLIC SECURITY RISK IN THE FRAME OF LOW INTERSTATE CONFLICT Matias Franchini and Eduardo Viola ...................... 108 THE ‘BOOMERANG EFFECT’ AND THE UNINTENDED SIDE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ACTION: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL’S INTERVENTIONS IN AMAZON RIVER BASIN Luis Paulo B. da Silva, Larry Swatuk and Lars Wirkus ......... 121 1 IGARAPÉ INSTITUTE | DECEMBER 2019 INTRODUCTION Climate change has been recognized by the United poses additional security risks. In the 2019 World Nations (UN) and by regional organizations, such as Economic Forum annual report, environment- the African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU) to related risks account for three of the top five be a multiplier of insecurity and vulnerability, especially risks by likelihood and impact, according to the where efforts to mitigate and adapt are not implemented. businesspeople interviewed (WEF, 2019). Discussion around the nature and dynamics of the links between climate and security have intensified since the In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), climate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) change is affecting specific areas in different ways. released its Global Warming of 1.5 Special Report From the melting glaciers of the Andes to the (2018), which stresses that the international community increasingly unpredictable floods in the Amazon has only until 2030 to limit the increased risks brought on Basin, from intensifying droughts in the Brazilian by climate change (IPCC 2018). cerrado (tropical savannah) to growing food insecurity in Central America, from extreme weather The connections between climate change and security events in the Caribbean to shifting rain patterns in are complex. The interaction with other factors and Patagonia, the entire region faces a series of emerging the speed and type of social change vary across challenges. Far from being confined to remote or different contexts. Climate change rarely, if ever, causes sparsely populated areas, these challenges also affect insecurity directly; intervening variables – most of them residents of densely populated places, including major related to governance, development and resource cities such as Mexico City, Lima, Rio de Janeiro and management – mediate this relationship. Manaus. The IPCC 2018 Special Report underlines the potential impact of sea-level rise in highly populated coastal areas, with the potential need of While reliably quantifying how much climate change resettlement of communities and the rearrangement contributes to a single event is challenging, the of public services provision – phenomena that are literature has made progress in terms of identifying directly relevant to the millions of Latin Americans the causal paths through which climate conditions living along the region’s coastlines. worsen insecurity. In general, climate change tends to exacerbate existing social tensions and may generate new ones altogether. This augmentation effect can The articles in this volume explore how climate happen through “outlier” crises, such as disasters, contributes to insecurity in the LAC region. They resulted or as a result of more incremental changes, such from a partnership between the Igarapé Institute and as gradual soil erosion. In many contexts, these the Instituto Clima e Sociedade (iCS), both in Rio de dynamics occur simultaneously or feed one another. Janeiro, Brazil, with the support of the German Embassy in Brasília. This partnership yielded a workshop, held in July 2019, that brought together the twelve researchers These links are increasingly recognized not only by and practitioners from across the region to discuss how a number of states – including Germany, Denmark, climate and security are linked in LAC. and Czech Republic – but also by the UN Security Council (UNSC)—which has held debates since 2007. In 2017, the Council issued a resolution The publication has two key goals. First, it is underlining the need to assess and address the meant to provide an initial trove of evidence-based risks associated with climate and security more research on the links between climate and security proactively (UNSC 2017; SCR 2018). There is also in LAC. Most of the articles focus on case studies or growing concern across the UN system that the comparisons, while others tackle more conceptual impact of climate change on security is hampering dimensions of the climate security debate and the the achievement of the Sustainable Development role of governance in LAC. Second, it is intended Goals (SDGs) (UN 2019). Private sector actors, to raise awareness of these links and to promote including insurance companies and security solutions-oriented debate among researchers and consulting firms, also acknowledge that climate policymakers within the region. 2 SCHOLARSHIP ON CLIMATE AND SECURITY Research on the links between climate and security concerted policy responses among not only state has been growing rapidly over the past five years, actors but also international and governmental but much of this literature remains fragmented, organizations, civil society entities, and private sector in the sense that there is inadequate dialogue firms, most of the articles in this volume analyze the across sectors and institutions. Most scholars relations between climate and security from a human and policymakers working on the topic agree that security perspective. climate change means “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity In addition to the different concepts of security, that alters the composition of the global atmosphere the literature on climate and security has covered COLLECTION OF ARTICLES ABOUT CLIMATE, SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT COLLECTION OF ARTICLES ABOUT CLIMATE, and which is in addition to natural climate variability a number of policy areas. Research on national observed over comparable time periods,” as security has emphasized diplomacy, security, peace, underlined in Article 1 of the UN Framework and conflict, whereas work on human security has Convention on Climate Change (UN 1992). stressed development dimensions (Barnett and Adger 2007), disaster risk reduction (Birkmann and In contrast, the definition of security is more Von Teichman 2010; Schipper and Pelling 2006), and controversial. Two key ways in which scholars refugees (Hartmann 2010; Baldwin, Methmann and have conceptualized this term revolve around state Rothe 2014) (Dellmuth et al. 2017). Since the mid- security or human security. The former focuses 2010s, some topics have gained prominence within on the national level and is strongly associated this literature, particularly global governance, food with the realist and neo-realist perspectives in the security, migration, and violent conflict. International Relations field, whether in reference to inter-state conflict or intra-state conflict. The latter On global governance, the literature has debated tends to emphasize individuals and communities the securitization of climate change – i.e. that is, and is often associated with the constructivist the framing of climate change as a security or tradition (Dellmuth et al. 2017). In the LAC, the most defense issue – by governments and international commonly used term is public security, which is organizations (Gilman, Randall and Schwartz typically used to refer to the function of governments 2011). On the one hand, securitization is useful for (and, to a lesser extent, non-state actors) in ensuring actors who are willing to push for collective action the protection of citizens, persons in their territory, (Floyd 2015). For governments and international organizations, and institutions against threats to their organizations, this process allows them to frame well-being. In practice, issues seldom fall squarely