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Cambodia's Hedging Foreign Policy Between the United States and China

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Cambodia's Hedging Foreign Policy Between the United States and China Cambodia’s hedging foreign policy between the United States and China: The role of domestic politics, 1999-2019 by Chansambath Bong B.A., Paññāsāstra University of Cambodia, 2017 B.B.A., University of Economics and Finance, 2016 A THESIS submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree MASTER OF ARTS Security Studies Program College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2020 Approved by: Major Professor Dr. Andrew G. Long Copyright © Chansambath Bong 2020. Abstract The rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the apparent transition from the post- Cold War unipolarity to multipolarity of the twentieth-first century have resulted in a highly fluid geostrategic environment in the Asia-Pacific region, where signs of potential aggressors are not clear cut, and structural power among major states still unfolds with considerable uncertainty. This condition inclines small states such as Cambodia to reject traditional bandwagoning and balancing schools of thought that require them to choose a side between contesting big powers. Instead, they opt for a pragmatic foreign policy known as “hedging” by forging relations with multiple external players concurrently. Through the lens of survival of authoritarian regimes, this qualitative study contends that Cambodia’s general election cycle influences its hedging between the United States and the PRC from 1999 to 2019. On the one hand, Cambodia’s economic and military relations with the United States remain stable and mature over time, whereas its political ties deteriorate temporarily during elections because of government repression. On the other hand, Cambodia’s relations with China deepen without fluctuation regardless of electoral cycles. The ultimate goal of this strategy is to uphold the legitimacy of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) by retaining the support of two key constituencies in Cambodian politics: the winning coalition and the opposition group. This study concluded that Cambodia hedged by engaging not only with the United States and China but also with Japan, the European Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in order to bolster economic growth, maintain internal stability, strengthen its armed forces, preserve the regional balance of power, and project an ambivalent image of its alignment posture. The thesis offers policy implications for the scholarship on the foreign policy of small autocratic states and the future of U.S. foreign policy in Asia. Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1 - Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Literature Review ................................................................................................................. 4 Survival of Authoritarian Leaders........................................................................................... 5 Hedging Strategy in Foreign Policy ........................................................................................ 7 Why Does Cambodia Hedge? ............................................................................................... 12 1.2 Hedging Foreign Policy and Cambodian Domestic Politics .............................................. 17 1.3 Research Objective and Key Definition ............................................................................. 27 1.4 Research Methodology, Scope, Data, and Significance ..................................................... 27 Chapter 2 - A History of Cambodia: From Independence to the Post-Cold War Era ................. 30 2.1 Norodom Sihanouk’s Neutrality, 1953-1965 ...................................................................... 30 2.2 Years of Difficulty, 1965-1979 ........................................................................................... 37 2.3 Vietnam’s Cambodia, 1979-1989 ....................................................................................... 41 2.4 UNTAC and the Second Kingdom of Cambodia, 1989-1998 ............................................ 42 Chapter 3 - Domestic Politics in Cambodia’s Hedging Foreign Policy, 1999-2019 .................... 46 Key Constituencies in Cambodia’s Foreign Policy .............................................................. 46 3.1 Early Hedging, 1999-2008 .................................................................................................. 51 Internal Challenges ........................................................................................................... 51 External Challenges .......................................................................................................... 53 3.1.1 Chinese-Cambodian Relations: From Former Foe to Close Friend ............................. 56 Political Ties ................................................................................................................. 56 Economic Ties .............................................................................................................. 60 Military Ties.................................................................................................................. 62 3.1.2 United States-Cambodian Relations: From Sanctions to Engagement ........................ 64 Political Ties ................................................................................................................. 64 Economic Ties .............................................................................................................. 71 iv Military Ties.................................................................................................................. 73 Key Findings ..................................................................................................................... 75 3.2 Hedging Amid Growing Uncertainties, 2009-2019 ............................................................ 78 Internal Challenges ........................................................................................................... 78 External Challenges .......................................................................................................... 84 3.2.1 Chinese-Cambodian Relations: A De Facto Diplomatic Ally? ................................... 88 Political Ties ................................................................................................................. 88 Economic Ties .............................................................................................................. 95 Military Ties.................................................................................................................. 98 3.2.2 United States-Cambodian Relations: Tumultuous Years........................................... 103 Political Ties ............................................................................................................... 103 Economic Ties ............................................................................................................ 114 Military Ties................................................................................................................ 118 Key Findings ................................................................................................................... 122 3.3 What About Diversification? ............................................................................................ 125 3.3.1 Dominance Denial ..................................................................................................... 125 3.3.2 Economic Diversification .......................................................................................... 130 3.3.3 Binding Engagement .................................................................................................. 132 Chapter 4 - Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 137 4.1 Policy Implications ........................................................................................................... 143 References ................................................................................................................................... 150 v List of Figures Figure 1.1 Spectrum of Power Rejection/Acceptance in Hedging (Source: Kuik 2016a)........... 19 Figure 1.2 Analytical Framework of Cambodia’s Hedging (Source: Author) ............................ 26 Figure 2.1 Key Events in Cambodia’s Political History (Source: Author).................................. 45 vi List of Tables Table 3.1 Results of the Cambodian General Elections, 1993-2018 [Source: Un (2019)] .......... 51 Table 3.2 Cambodia’s GDP and ODA Inflow, 1998-2008 (Source: World Development Indicators) ............................................................................................................................. 52 Table 3.3 Cambodia’s Trade with China, 1999-2008 [Source: International Monetary Fund’s
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