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JAE 18.2 Corrected Dois.Indb JOURNAL OF JOURNAL JOURNAL OF AFRICAN A FRICAN EL ELECTIONS E CTIONS Vol 18 Vol N o 2 O ct 2019 Volume 18 Number 2 Oct 2019 remember to change running heads VOLUME 17 NO 1 i Journal of African Elections EDITOR Denis Kadima ARTICLES BY Essa Njie Abdoulaye Saine Albano Agostinho Troco Dércio Tsandzana Bethel Uzoma Ihugba Charles Alfred Wishes Tendayi Mututwa Oluyinka Osunkunle Brenda Mututwa Robert Nyenhuis Mattias Krönke Stephen Chan REVIEWS BY Tom Lodge Ivor Sarakinsky Volume 18 Number 2 Oct 2019 i ii JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS Published by EISA 14 Park Road, Richmond, Johannesburg, South Africa P O Box 740, Auckland Park, 2006, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 11 381 6000 Fax: +27 (0) 11 482 6163 e-mail: [email protected] © EISA 2019 ISSN: 1609-4700 (Print) ISSN 2415-5837 (Online) v. 18 no. 2: 10.20940/jae/2019/v18i2 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher Printed by: Corpnet, Johannesburg Cover photograph: Reproduced with the permission of the HAMILL GALLERY OF AFRICAN ART, BOSTON, MA, USA For electronic back copies of JAE visit www.eisa jae.org.za remember to change running heads VOLUME 17 NO 1 iii EDITOR Denis Kadima, EISA, Johannesburg MANAGING EDITOR Heather Acott EDITORIAL BOARD Chair: Denis Kadima, EISA, South Africa Cherrel Africa, Department of Political Studies, University of the Western Cape, South Africa Jørgen Elklit, Department of Political Science, University of Aarhus, Denmark Amanda Gouws, Department of Political Science, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa Roukaya Kasenally, Department of Social Studies, University of Mauritius, Mauritius Abdul Rahman Lamin, UNESCO Regional Office for Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya Tom Lodge, Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Limerick, Ireland Khabele Matlosa, Political Affairs Department, African Union Commission Roger Southall, Department of Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa and Research Associate in Political Studies, University of Cape Town. The Journal of African Elections is an interdisciplinary biannual publication of research and writing in the human sciences, which seeks to promote a scholarly understanding of developments and change in Africa. Responsibility for opinions expressed and for the accuracy of facts published in papers, research notes, review articles and book reviews rests solely with the individual authors or reviewers. Contributions are referred to specialist readers for consideration, but the Editor is responsible for the final selection of the contents of the Journal. Editorial correspondence, including manuscripts for submission and books for review, should be sent to: The Managing Editor, Journal of African Elections EISA: P O Box 740 Auckland Park 2006, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 11 381 6000 | Fax: +27 (0) 11 482 6163 | e-mail: [email protected] Business correspondence, including orders and remittances, subscription queries, advertise- ments, back numbers and offprints, should be addressed to the publisher: The Publications Department, Journal of African Elections EISA: P O Box 740 Auckland Park 2006 South Africa Tel: 27 (0) 11 381 6000 | Fax: +27 (0) 11 482 6163 | e-mail: [email protected] Abstracts for previous issues are available at: https://eisa.org.za/index.php/journal-of-african-elections-contents-listing/ iv JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS CONTENTS Gambia’s ‘Billion Year’ President: The End of an Era and the Ensuing Political Impasse Essa Njie and Abdoulaye Saine ..................................................................................... 1 Electoral Governance and Democratisation in Southern African Post-Conflict States: Electoral Management Bodies in Angola, Mozambique and South Africa Albano Agostinho Troco ............................................................................................... 25 Using On-Line Platforms to Observe and Monitor Elections: A Netnography of Mozambique Dércio Tsandzana ......................................................................................................... 46 Political Parties and Electoral Offences in Nigeria: A Critical Analysis Bethel Uzoma Ihugba and Charles Alfred ................................................................... 72 Facebook Image-Making In Zimbabwe’s 2018 Election Campaigns: Social Media and Emerging Trends in Political Marketing Wishes Tendayi Mututwa, Oluyinka Osunkunle and Brenda Mututwa ................... 93 The 2019 South African Elections: Incumbency and Uncertainty Robert Nyenhuis and Mattias Krönke ....................................................................... 112 The Manifesto Experiment and Internal Electioneering in the Botswana Democratic Party Christian John Makgala ............................................................................................. 134 Opinion: The World Robert Mugabe Left Behind Stephen Chan ............................................................................................................. 158 Book Reviews How to rig an election by Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas Tom Lodge ... .............................................................................................................. 164 Election 2019: Change and stability in South Africa’s Democracy by Collette Schulz-Herzenberg and Roger Southall Ivor Sarakinsky ... ...................................................................................................... 169 VOLUME 18 NO 2 DOI: 10.20940/JAE/2019/v18i2aDOI: 10.20940/JAE/2019/v18i2a1 1 1 GAMBIA’S ‘BILLION YEAR’ PRESIDENT The End of an Era and the Ensuing Political Impasse Essa Njie and Abdoulaye Saine Essa Njie is a lecturer in Political Science at the University of the Gambia with specific interest in security sector reform, human rights and governance, civil society, elections and democratic consolidation in Africa Abdoulaye Saine is a Gambian-born professor in Political Science at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio and author of The Paradox of Third-Wave Democratisation in Africa: The Gambia Under AFPRC-APRC 1994-2008 ABSTRACT The Gambia’s presidential election in December 2016 marked the end of an era for Yahya Jammeh, the man who had vowed to rule the country for ‘one billion years if Allah says so’. The resulting political impasse following Jammeh’s rejection of the results ‘in its entirety’ and his refusal to step down plunged the country into political uncertainty. This paper explores the end of Jammeh’s 22-year rule in Africa’s smallest mainland country, focussing on the 2016 polls which he lost to former realtor, Adama Barrow. The election offers relevant lessons to students of political transitions and contemporary election discourse in Africa and provides an analysis of some of the factors that accounted for his defeat. Keywords: dictatorship, Gambia’s 2016 presidential election, opposition coalition, Yahya Jammeh INTRODUCTION The third-wave of democratisation is manifestly undergoing a contrary undercurrent as transitional democracies experience a degree of backsliding. While many countries have transitioned to democracy through elections, a good number of non-democratic regimes continue to exist around the world (Snyder 2006). Countries experiencing democratic transition always have multi-party elections which are considered competitive, at least at the outset. This results in ousting incumbents, as was seen in the 1993 elections in the Republic of Congo that led to the removal of Denis Sassou Nguesso (Abbink 2017). 1 2 DOI: 10.20940/JAE/2019/v18i2a1 JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ELECTIONS The Gambia under Yahya Jammeh was characterised by gross violations of human rights directed against journalists, opposition figures and Gambian dissidents living in the diaspora. For over a decade Jammeh’s party, the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC), dominated a political landscape characterised equally by political intimidation, repression and the politicisation of the security forces clamping down on the opposition (Sanyang & Camara 2017). Jammeh won four presidential elections: in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, and by heading the 2016 polls he was one of the most long-standing rulers in post-Cold War Africa. Any attempt to prevent Jammeh from running for a fifth term would be met with stiff resistance; not even the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) could do so, with their attempt to convince West African leaders to introduce a term limit in their national constitutions. On 1 December 2016, 525 867 out of the 886 578 registered Gambian voters headed to the polls with two options: change or continuity of leadership. Ceesay (2016) notes that The Gambia’s 2016 election and its political consequences resemble the fall of the Berlin Wall, the eventual disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 and collapse of apartheid in South Africa. Defeat of ‘strong man’ Jammeh by an opposition coalition took many by surprise, as it was generally believed that dictators of his calibre do not organise elections if they know are likely to lose (ibid.). Cognisant of the advantages of incumbency in Africa and Jammeh’s own success record in previous elections, many political analysts expected him to secure another five-year mandate. Yet the combined effects of a historic merger of seven opposition political parties, unprecedented selection of an independent candidate, the jailing of key opposition
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