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Basic Instinct: the Case for More NATO in the Western Balkans

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BASIC INSTINCT THE CASE FOR MORE NATO IN THE WESTERN BALKANS STUDY OF THE CENTER FOR EURO-ATLANTIC STUDIES FROM SERBIA SEPTEMBER 2017 “This assessment report was made possible with partial funding from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NED”. Quotes That Inspired This Report NATO is made up of large countries and small countries, but the U.S. has no small allies and we cherish our new alliance with Montenegro through NATO. Michael Richard Pence, Vice President of the United States, statement during visit to Montenegro, August 2017 We need more NATO, more EU, and more NATO and EU. Rose Eilene Gottemoeller, Deputy Secretary General of NATO, at Lennart Meri conference in Tallinn, Riga, on a panel Less NATO More EU, May 2017 The way to deter a crisis is through speed of recognition, speed of political decision and speed of assembly. Unity of NATO and unity of the EU are absolutely necessary for deterrence. There is no room for miscalculation. Lt. Gen. Benjamin Hodges, commander of U.S. Army Europe, at Lennart Meri conference in Tallinn, Riga, May 2017 Russia is simply using every aspect of an ethnic tension of political destabilization of any kind of conflict to its own advantage, which means to the disadvantage of the West and of liberal democracy. That is the most potent foreign influence in the Balkans, which we need to counter in some way. Roland Freudenstein, Policy Director, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, in an interview for European Western Balkans, June 2017 We were often asked by individuals what does the membership in NATO brings to each one of us, what kind of direct benefits would bring them. We responded – to you personally nothing, this is more for the society as a whole and a state, ideas and alliances. Everything else is propaganda, and we do not do propaganda. Milica Kovačević, Info Center on Euro-Atlantic integration and director, Center for democratic transition, at Conference - The reasons for the stagnation of NATO integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina- Regional Context and the Future, in Sarajevo, April 2017 Table of Contents Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................................7 Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................................9 Introduction and Methodology ....................................................................................................... 11 1. Key NATO Warsaw Summit Conclusions and References to the Western Balkans ...........14 2. EU Global Strategy and References to the Western Balkans ...............................................17 3. Emerging Cooperation between Russia and China in Central and Eastern Europe: The Curious Case of 16+1 ........................................................................................................19 A Bridge between Eurasia and Western Europe ..................................................................20 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a Model for Russia-China Accommodation ....21 Another Backyard, Another Arrangement .............................................................................22 4. Excerpt from GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation Initiative .............................................................24 5. Excerpt from the Report – A New Era of NATO EU Cooperation: How to Make the Best of a Marriage of Necessity .................................................................27 6. A Brief Overview of the Current Political Situation in the Western Balkans .......................30 7. NATO and the Western Balkans: A Short Overview .............................................................32 8. The Berlin Process: A New Initiative for the Western Balkans .............................................34 9. Serbia: Key Obstacles to Stabilization and Democratization ...............................................37 General Information and Short Background .........................................................................37 Security System Structures ..................................................................................................39 Incomplete Security Sector Reform: Key Vulnerabilities for Serbia ......................................40 Serbia’s Open Door Policy and the Growth of Russian Authoritarian Internationalism ..............46 Chronology of Bilateral Relations between Serbia and the Russian Federation from 2015 to 2017 ......................................................................................................................................49 Joint Military Exercises between Serbia and Russia ............................................................53 RegEX1018 Controversy ......................................................................................................55 The So-Called Serbian-Russia Humanitarian Center in Niš .................................................57 Serbia’s Open Door Policy and the Growth of Chinese Authoritarian Internationalism ..............59 Serbia and China- 1 Among the 16 .......................................................................................59 Chronology of Bilateral Relations between Serbia and the People’s Republic of China from 2015 to 2017 .........................................................................................................................60 Basic Facts About Serbia and NATO ..........................................................................................64 Contradictory Perceptions of NATO ......................................................................................69 Human Casualties during the NATO Air Campaign .............................................................70 Depleted Uranium, Enriched Imagination ...........................................................................73 Assessment of Serbia-NATO Relations and Serbia’s IPAP Implementation by Serbian and NATO Officials ......................................................................................................................77 Chronology of Meetings between Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg .....................................................................................86 War Crimes Prosecutions: Processes in Reverse ..............................................................88 Setbacks due to the Politicization of Ethnicity in Serbia ............................................................90 The Status of Political Parties of National Minorities in Serbia .............................................90 Attempted Weaponization of Hungarians in Serbia ..............................................................92 5 BASIC INSTINCT – THE CASE FOR MORE NATO IN THE WESTERN BALKANS 10. Kosovo: Key Obstacles to the Stabilization and Democratization ....................................95 General Information and Short Background .........................................................................95 Basic Facts about Kosovo and NATO...................................................................................97 Security System Structures .................................................................................................98 Democratic Oversight of the Security System ......................................................................99 Agency for Emergency Management ..................................................................................99 Key Security Issues ............................................................................................................100 Key Issues for the Kosovo Security Forces ........................................................................102 Radical Islamization in Kosovo and Consequences of ISIS Recruiting ..............................104 The Establishment and Full Operationalization of the Special Chambers and Special Prosecutor’s Office .............................................................................................................106 Setbacks due to the Politicization of Ethnicity in Kosovo ..................................................107 Attempted Weaponization of Serbs in Kosovo ...................................................................107 11. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Key Obstacles to the Stabilization and Democratization ......109 General Information and Short Background .......................................................................109 Basic Facts about Bosnia and Herzegovina and NATO ..................................................... 113 Legislative Framework ........................................................................................................ 114 Information Landscape ....................................................................................................... 115 A Serious Breach of Order: Establishing Ethnic Lines of Command in Republika Srpska . 117 Attempted Weaponization of Croats and Serbs in Bosnia and Hercegovina: The Role of Croatia and Russia ........................................................................................................... 118 12. Macedonia: Key Obstacles to the Stabilization and Democratization .............................122 General Information and Short Background ......................................................................122
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