Growth Management Report Builds on Long-Standing Efforts, Combining Information on Development Activity and the 2019 Capacity Analysis Results

Growth Management

2019 Report NOVEMBER 12, 2019

NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 1 Introduction 3 Contents Where We’ve Been 4 Introduction How Albemarle Grows Current Housing Trends 6 For decades, Albemarle County’s Comprehensive Plan has implemented a Growth Management policy directing development into specified What’s In The Pipeline? 8 Development (Growth) Areas while maintaining the remainder of the County as rural land use patterns. The Growth Management policy is implemented through a number of land use and fiscal tools, such as the Zoning Ordinance, Where Will We Grow Next? 10 the Capital Investment Program, and tax and financial incentives for landowners.

Do We Have Room To Grow? 12 Chapter 8 of the Comprehensive Plan, which focuses on the County’s Development Areas, includes a series of policy objectives including Objective Development Area Profiles 4, “Use Development Area land efficiently to prevent premature expansion of the Development Areas”. This objective is a fundamental component of the County’s Growth Management policy, acknowledging the need to Neighborhood 1 14 accommodate projected growth by providing sufficient land area and use recommendations. To implement this objective, the identified Strategies 4a Neighborhood 2 16 and 4b include monitoring building activity in the Development Areas and Rural Areas, and updating a capacity analysis every two years to ensure Neighborhood 3 (Pantops) 18 adequate residential land exists to meet new housing needs. Neighborhood 4 20 About This Report This Growth Management Report builds on long-standing efforts, combining information on development activity and the 2019 Capacity Analysis results. Neighborhood 5 22 Acknowledging the County’s ongoing efforts to address its housing and capital needs and plan for its aging suburbs, this report aims to provide additional Neighborhood 6 24 context to where and how Albemarle County is growing. This report was produced by County staff during Summer 2019. Sources used Neighborhood 7 26 include building permit information from the County’s development tracking system (CountyView), historic population estimates and building activity Crozet 28 reports, and demographic information from the Census Bureau and Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. Hollymead 30 The Capacity Analysis was conducted by County staff using a model informed by a variety of geographic datasets and planning & development information, and refined by staff through a careful review of the identified candidate Piney Mountain 32 parcels. Technical information about the model, which extensively utilized ESRI ArcGIS 10.3, R, and Python to ensure consistency in calculations, can be found Village of Rivanna 34 in the Appendix. This analysis provides information on theoretical buildout, which may not be achievable due to environmental and economic constraints. Appendix The County's Growth Management Policy has existed in various forms Appendix A: Estimate Tables 36 over the years - from the 1971 Comprehensive Plan (top), the 1982 Comprehensive Plan (middle), Appendix B: Pipeline Projects 40 and the 2015 Comprehensive Plan (bottom). Appendix C: Model Documentation 42 Appendix D: Density & Mix Tables 49 2 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 3 Where We’ve Been Early Suburbanization The Neighborhood Model & Development Trends Since Residential Development "Hot Spots", 2008-2018 While a rural county for much of its history, Albemarle Master Planning 2000 took its first major steps as an urbanizing, high- growth community in the 1960s. Since the adoption In the late 1990s, as a response to continued growth The County has seen steady and continued growth of zoning in 1969 and the first Comprehensive Plan in a low-density, suburban development form and since 2000, with Crozet and the urban neighborhoods in 1971, the County has adopted a philosophy of pressures to expand the Development Areas, the of Pantops, Neighborhood 2 (Rio Road East area), and growth management to accommodate the pressures Development Initiative Steering Commitee (DISC) was Neighborhood 5 (5th Street Extended / Old Lynchburg of increased population while conserving its valued convened to study how Development Area land could Road area) seeing the greatest growth during this time. resources and providing services in a fiscally accommodate new development more efficiently. The Population responsible manner. outcome of DISC’s work was the Neighborhood Model, 120000 a series of 12 site design principles intended to create Development Areas vs. Rural The 1970s were a period of rapid development activity, high-quality urban neighborhoods. The Neighborhood 100000 Areas culminating in the formation of the modern growth Model is implemented by a series of Master Plans for 80000 management policy and the adoption of the current each Development Area that provide recommendations From the early 2000s through the start of the Great Zoning Ordinance on December 10, 1980. Since 1980, for land uses, transportation network improvements, Recession, the County saw single-family construction 60000 County land use decisions have sought to direct new and area-specific design strategies. occurring in a roughly 50-50 balance between the 40000 development into the designated Development Areas. Development Areas and the Rural Areas. Although the As the urban ring builds out and greenfield (vacant) balance shifted more heavily towards the Rural Areas 20000 Over time, the Development Area boundaries have development sites become more scarce, the County during the period of lower building activity leading up to been adjusted to respond to new development has begun to shift its focus to strategies to revitalize 0 and during the Great Recession, since 2009 the majority 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 and concerns about watershed protection and its aging urban neighborhoods and implement the of new single-family construction has occurred within the infrastructure feasibility. Today, the Development Neighborhood Model’s tenets within suburban Development Areas. Areas include Urban Neighborhoods 1-7 (established landscapes. The Rio29 Small Area Plan (2018) and in the 1977 Comprehensive Plan), the communities of the Pantops Master Plan (2019) set out a vision for Crozet, Hollymead, and Piney Mountain, and the Village the future redevelopment of suburban strip settings, of Rivanna. The relative stability of the boundaries connection of existing neighborhoods and centers with has allowed them to also serve as statistical areas for bicycle, pedestrian, and transit access, and enhanced development activity tracking and longitudinal study. opportunities for recreation within the urban areas. Single-Family Detached Building Permit Activity, 2000-2018 Development Area Population Estimates, 2002-2019

Neighborhoods 1 & 2

Development Areas Neighborhoods 6 & 7 Rural Areas

Neighborhoods 4 & 5 Hollymead & Piney Mtn. Crozet

Pantops

Rivanna

4 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 5 Current Housing Trends Dwelling Units Built by Quarter, 2009-2018 Unit Types What Factors Impact Housing Costs? Housing Choice & Mix Single-Family Detached The costs and affordability of new housing construction are impacted The County has generally seen a mix of housing types produced within the Single-Family Attached & Townhouse by a number of factors, including Development Areas each year during the past decade. However, since 2014, land values, construction material single-family detached housing has generally been the dominant housing type costs & labor markets, infrastructure being constructed in Albemarle County, consistently outpacing construction of Multi-Family & regulatory requirements such as single-family attached housing. water & sewer, off-street parking, Mobile Home and amenities, and transportation Attached and townhouse unit types were generally the second-largest housing costs. Additional demand and type being constructed during the past decade. competition for housing driven by University of Virginia students, Due to the limited number of multifamily projects, the large number of retirees, and second-home buyers dwelling units included in a single multifamily permit, and the longer time also exerts upwards pressure on sale involved in multifamily construction, it is more difficult to establish a trend for prices and rents. multifamily housing construction. One of the primary drivers of rising housing costs (and property assessments) is the cost of land, What’s Being Built - And Where? particularly within the Development Although the graphs (right) appear to indicate that single-family is the primary Areas. Housing types that consume greater quantities of developable housing type being built across the entire County, the reality is that not all land (such as single-family homes of the County's Development Areas share the same mix of housing types on large lots) are inherently more or number of dwelling units being constructed. While over 33% of all single- expensive due to their lot sizes, family detached dwelling units being built in the Development Areas were built which are often driven by density in Crozet, roughly 75% of all attached, townhome, or multifamily dwelling units or minimum lot size requirements. built in the Development Areas were located in the Urban Neighborhoods Although these housing types may surrounding the City of Charlottesville. have been relatively affordable in a less urbanized Albemarle County, The quantity of construction may reflect the amount of vacant land available Housing Mix: Unit Types as Percentage of All New Housing, 2009-2018 continued demand combined with with appropriate residential zoning designations or designated for residential a decreased supply of developable uses in the Comprehensive Plan. For example, a significant amount of land land have placed significant pressure on land values. The Comprehensive zoned R1 Residential was developed in Crozet during this period. Regional Housing Study and Needs Analysis for Virginia Planning District 10 prepared by Partners for Economic Solutions and dated March 22, 2019 cites a figure for a single- family lot in the urban ring that once cost $30,000-$50,000 in the 1990s now being closer to $160,000.

This graph (right) shows the relative cost of the bottom third of Albemarle County's housing stock (as measured by Zillow's Home Value Index) compared to the top third. The red line shows this proportion. Its rise since 2014 may indicate that costs for the bottom third of the housing stock are rising more quickly than those in the upper third of the housing stock. The black dots show fluctuations in median sales prices. Data in this visual was obtained from Zillow.

6 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 7 How DoesHow Development does development Happen? happen in Albemarle County?

Application Types Special Use Permits & Site Plans, Subdivision Building Permits & Under Review Zoning Map Amendments Plats, Water Protection, Zoning Clearances What’s In The Pipeline? Architectural Review What Is The Development When Does The Pipeline Application Board of Supervisors Initial Plan/Plat Final Plan/Plat Building Permit CO Issued and/or “Pipeline”? Build Out? Milestone Approval Submitted Approved Issued Clearance Approved Pipeline Legislative Review Approved Site Design Review Approved Under Built/ The “pipeline” refers to the development projects Site design approvals are typically valid for a short Status Legislative Action Site Design Construction Operating currently under review, approved, or under period after approval to ensure that the plans construction in Albemarle County. These projects are submitted are consistent with the most recent In some cases, uses that do not require site initiated by landowners and developers, as the County regulations, although this time period can be extended design approvals can move straight to does not solicit new development. However, a major by other entities including the General Assembly. building permits or zoning clearances. function of the County's Community Development Department is to review projects and proposals for Rezonings typically feature more uncertainty in timing their consistency with applicable regulations. due to the longer review process, which introduces additional risk and uncertainty regarding financing and market conditions. These projects often ask for greater How Does A Project Move units than will actually be built, and sometimes can wait Through The Pipeline? for years before beginning construction. For example, a number of large rezonings approved in the early 2000s L Piney R T have developed later (or less) than expected due to the Mountain The complexity and unique nature of development E "Great Recession" of 2007-2009. L projects means there is no single path through O N I Albemarle County’s site development review process. M E S Before a site is graded, streets laid down, and What Projects Are In The Hollymead L foundations for homes poured, a developer must R obtain County approvals for their plans. The review T Pipeline? E L process safeguards the County’s resources and the O N A full list of pipeline projects can be found in Appendix I community’s interests, encouraging developments that M E are high-quality and livable. B. The map on page 9 shows the general location of all S projects that have been approved.

A site's zoning dictates what a landowner or developer Neighborhood 1 W RD can do with their property today. If a site has the I O R Crozet R I Neighborhood 2 appropriate zoning for its intended use, a developer can What Gets Counted In The O N R T E O T CH D D submit plans to the County for review. If the plans meet H R E ' D R R E T Pipeline? D Neighborhood 7 N the standards outlined in the County Code, they are O I P E I V Y approved administratively by staff. A project developed Unbuilt units in Zoning Map Amendments, Special Use P K Y R D K F I SH GA P T N R O C I V O under its existing zoning is sometimes referred to as Permits, Final Site Plans, and Final Subdivision Plats that Y T having developed "by-right". RD S were approved as of July 1, 2019 are included. Projects Neighborhood 6 that have not received legislative approval or final Neighborhood 3 6 4 E I R ICH When a site does not have the appropriate zoning for I- - 6 M 4 O (Pantops) administrative approval (for by-right projects) are not W N its planned use or if special permission is required D included. R W I under the current zoning, the developer may petition D I - 64 D -64 R T E I L S R the Board of Supervisors to change the zoning - Accessory apartments, carriage houses, and other T R A H I C H N T M ON C A 5 D "rezone" the property - or to grant a Special Use Permit. accessory dwelling units are not counted as "Units A R N D Village of R D This process is called "legislative review" because the O Built" in this report, as they are not counted towards Neighborhood 5 E M Rivanna action must be taken by the Board of Supervisors I L L density standards in the Zoning Ordinance. Accessory SV T (the County's legislative body) and the decision is T Neighborhood 4 apartment building permit types are only counted in O C discretionary in nature. In making their decision, Planned Developments if they are explicitly identified S the Board considers factors including the proposal's as counting towards density in a project's Code of consistency with the Comprehensive Plan and how Development. This visualization shows the approximate locations of projects that are considered to be in the "Pipeline" in blue. This includes the project will impact the public health, safety, and projects that have been approved or are under construction and does not include projects that have finished construction or welfare. If this petition is approved, a project will then "built out" to their maximum approved capacity. go through the same site design review process as a "by-right" project.

8 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 9 Unit Types

L Piney R T Potential Single-Family Development Mountain E How Do We Grow? L O N In addition to vacant parcels, developed parcels are I Potential Attached & Multi-Family M How Much Room Do We E considered where redevelopment or infill might make Development S Hollymead economic sense. For example, a parcel with a very L Have To Grow? R low improvement value and large acreage would be Approved Developments T E considered for redevelopment, as much of the value L A significant portion of the Development Areas has O N existing approvals for new development. Every 2 years, is "in the land" as development potential. Parcels with I M E the County conducts a "capacity analysis" of the vacant improvement values under $25,000 were considered S and underdeveloped land within the Development to be vacant, and residential parcels with enough land Areas in order to ensure that there is adequate land for at least two additional dwellings were considered Neighborhood 1 W as redevelopment/infill candidates. Redevelopment or RD with appropriate zoning and land use designations to I O R Crozet R I Neighborhood 2 accommodate its growing population over the next infill parcels were analyzed for the number of additional O

R T E NO T CH D D twenty years. Like any analysis, it depends on a series units that could be constructed on the parcel. H R E ' D R R E T of assumptions and careful validation to produce a D Neighborhood 7 I N P O potential estimate. E I V Y P K Y R D How Is Capacity Calculated? F I S H GA P T N R O CK I V O Y T R D S Candidate parcels are analyzed under three different Neighborhood 6 How Do We Determine Neighborhood 3 scenarios: under current zoning using a "gross" density 6 4 E I R ICH I- - 6 M 4 O (Pantops) calculation (the whole parcel), under current zoning W N Where We Have Capacity? D with a "net" density calculation (excluding critical W R I D I -6 4 D -64 For this analysis, each parcel in the Development environmental features), and under the Comprehensive R T E I L S R T R A H I C H Areas is evaluated for its development potential, which T M ON Plan's future land use designations. For each parcel and A N 5 D AC is broadly defined to include economic parameters N D R each scenario, low and high estimates were calculated. R Village of D O

E and environmental suitability. Parcels with existing NeighborhoodM 5 Rivanna I L L The Zoning Ordinance includes density ranges SV development approvals, in existing platted (and named) T T Neighborhood 4 subdivisions, and owned by tax-exempt organizations measured in dwelling units per acre, with a gross O C (such as governments, charitable organizations, and density at "standard level" comprising the low end S religious institutions) are removed from the analysis. of the range and a gross density at "bonus level" This visualization shows the approximate locations of parcels that could theoretically support additional development when Although it is possible that some parcels in platted/ comprising the high end of the range. A 1-acre parcel zoned R-6 would have a theoretical capacity developing in conformity with the County's Comprehensive Plan. The size of the bubble is correlated with the number of possible named subdivisions may be redeveloped, for the dwelling units: the larger bubble indicates greater development potential. Blue bubbles show approved development projects, purposes of this analysis they are considered unlikely between 6 and 9 dwelling units. However, zoning pink bubbles show potential multifamily or attached/townhouse development, and the yellow bubbles show potential single- to redevelop due to the presence of property owners bonus densities cannot be granted in excess of the family development. Maps for each scenario and Development Area are included in this document in the following pages. associations and covenants, conditions, and restrictions density shown in the Comprehensive Plan, so the high in deeds. Tax-exempt organizations are also insulated end may be overestimated on parcels where zoning from increasing assessments caused by rising land conflicts with the Master Plan's recommendations. The Capacity Scenario Overviews values, which are an indicator of development Comprehensive Plan does not consider bonuses, so the attractiveness of a parcel and can create pressure for low and high ends of the density ranges are used. Scenario Zoning (Gross) Zoning (Net) Comprehensive Plan redevelopment. This scenario uses the This scenario uses the This scenario utilizes the density ranges from density ranges from density ranges from the the Zoning Ordinance the Zoning Ordinance, Comprehensive Plan's Land Description and includes areas with but excludes areas with Use Plans and excludes undevelopable critical undevelopable critical additional areas designated resources, consistent with resources. for preservation. current regulations. Source Density Comprehensive Plan Land Current Zoning Designations Current Zoning Designations Calculations Use Designations Includes areas with undevelopable critical resources (preserved steep Yes No No slopes, floodplain, stream buffers) in This excerpt from the Zoning Ordinance shows the density and lot size requirements for the R-6 Residential zoning district. density calculation?

10 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 11 Do We Have Capacity For Future Growth? In theory, there appears to be sufficient capacity to accommodate future population growth within the Do We Have Room To Grow? Development Areas. However, when considering the likely overestimation of units in the pipeline and variability in redevelopment/infill potential, the answer becomes less clear. Removing 1,000 units from the current pipeline How Much Capacity Is include Old Trail Village, which was approved for a (accounting for Old Trail and Stonefield alone) and the University of Virginia Foundation's residentially designated maximum of 2,200 units but has since amended its holdings from the potential capacity pool reveals that the low ends of the density ranges may not be sufficient to Needed? plan to reduce its minimum to 1,000; Cascadia, which accommodate new residential growth. will complete construction 64 units under its approved The "needed capacity" estimate attempts to translate maximum; and Stonefield, which built out with a Beyond the overall theoretical buildout, improved visualization and applied economic considerations in this version a 20-year population projection into a housing more commercial orientation and is expected to build of the analysis highlighted site-specific conflicts between zoning and comprehensive plan recommendations that development policy. In June 2019, the Demographics out under its approved maximum. Developments may frustrate implementation of the Comprehensive Plan. Development potential under current zoning that Research Group of the Weldon Cooper Center for Public that have all phases approved and have unapplied/ exceeds the Comprehensive Plan's recommendations may be a factor leading to by-right development that is Service projected that Albemarle County will have a unused capacity remaining had their pipeline estimates inconsistent with the Comprehensive Plan and prevents the usage of proffers that act as a value capture tool for the population of 138,485 in 2040, down from a March 2017 reduced; however, ongoing projects such as Old Trail County to help ensure concurrency of infrastructure. Conversely, development under current zoning often results projection of 141,221. and Stonefield still have their full capacity counted in densities below the Comprehensive Plan's recommendations prevents Development Area land from being used in the pipeline. The pipeline figure included likely effectively and also creates implementation challenges. The Weldon Cooper Center's latest population Estimate overestimates the actual capacity. published January 28, 2019 estimated a population Without proactive efforts to align the Zoning Ordinance with planning efforts, land use designations in Master of 108,639 on July 1, 2018, and a July 1, 2019 internal Plans should carefully consider what is possible under current zoning and what would be permitted if the site population estimate utilizing a housing unit method Redevelopment & Infill were to develop in accordance with the Master Plan. In the future, the County should initiate an update to the estimated a current population of 109,146. Considering zoning ordinance and map to match the Comprehensive Plan's recommendations, and any interim zoning text When compared to past analyses, the 2019 analysis Weldon Cooper's projected population increase and an amendments should consider impacts on residential capacity. may overestimate the potential for redevelopment/ average of 2.54 persons per dwelling unit, an estimated infill where a single-family home may currently exist. 11,750 additional dwelling units will be needed by Development potential should be considered in future capital planning efforts. Many Master Plans include In the past, the practice has been to remove a 1 acre 2040. Although it is acknowledged that some new recommendations for the timing of infrastructure projects and development, and the availability of infrastructure to home site for the existing residence. However, rising population growth will occur in the Rural Areas, this support new development is a crucial consideration in making capacity available for development. land costs and recent trends indicate that it is more analysis considers whether the Development Areas likely that the house will be torn down instead to enable have sufficient land area and units in the pipeline to Buildout Scenarios & Potential 2040 Population full utilization of the site. This is most evident in high- accommodate all of the County's expected growth. density development scenarios. Vacant/Infill: Vacant/Infill: Est. Total Units: Estimated County Estimated Estimated Approved Providing an adequate and affordable housing supply Dev. Area Dev. Area Pipeline + Dev. Population at Dev. Area The economic filters used in the redevelopment and Current Current Units in Area Buildout Buildout is a crucial component of the County's planning policy, Low Buildout High Buildout infill scenarios for existing commercial spaces provided Scenario Population Units Pipeline acknowledging that an inadequate housing supply Scenario Scenario Low High Low High for limited redevelopment of existing suburban combined with increased demand and competition for F = G = A + A + commercial areas. While significant redevelopment A B C D E housing can have negative impacts on both long-term C+D C+E (F*2.54) (G*2.54) of these sites is anticipated in the future, their and new residents. Driving new residential growth Zoning redevelopment potential is significantly underestimated 5,035 7,604 13,879 16,448 144,399 150,924 into surrounding localities can exacerbate local traffic (Gross) in this analysis due to the existing economic hurdles issues and greenhouse gas emissions from increased Zoning for redevelopment. Ongoing implementation and 108,639 66,823 8,844 3,653 5,578 12,497 14,422 140,888 145,778 commuting, and high housing prices can lower quality (Net) economic development efforts acknowledge that of life due to reduced spending power and lead to Comp. appropriate incentives and land use policies will be 4,924 15,787 13,768 24,631 144,117 171,709 displacement of existing residents. Although many Plan necessary to utilize this potential capacity. people may work in the region's urbanized area and choose to live in the Rural Areas or in outlying areas Comparison of Potential 2040 Population to Expected Need due to lifestyle preferences, the Development Areas Institutional Landowners also offer better access to services including public Estimated As mentioned earlier, a number of tax-exempt Projected Units in Excess Units Adjusted transportation which are vital for low-income residents. Estimated Estimated Projected Additional Units organizations and institutions own significant amounts Units (or Needed) for for Pipeline Current Current 2040 at Dev. Area Needed by 2040 Population (-1,000) and UVAF of land within Albemarle County. While these properties Scenario Population Units Population Buildout Pipeline & Capacity were exempted from the analysis, it is worth noting 2040 Low High Low High Low High that they could theoretically be developed in the future An estimated 8,843 dwelling units are currently in D = G = H = under existing zoning or land use designations. A B C E F G (adj.) H (adj.) the development "pipeline", with about 44% of these (C-A) / 2.54 E-D F-D units located within the Community of Hollymead in Zoning A significant owner of Development Area land is the 13,879 16,448 2,129 4,698 701 3,058 large planned developments such as Hollymead Town University of Virginia Foundation (UVAF), which includes (Gross) Center, North Pointe, and Brookhill. Zoning a holdings in Neighborhoods 4, 6, and 7 designated 108,639 66,823 138,485 11,750 12,497 14,422 747 2,672 (617) 1,127 for institutional and residential uses. The Foundation's (Net) As mentioned earlier in the report, a common residentially designated properties were evaluated for Comp. occurrence for larger rezonings in the pipeline is to 13,768 24,631 2,018 12,881 260 10,327 their development potential. However, properties with Plan not use all of the original approved capacity. Examples institutional designations were not included. 12 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 13 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density)

S S W O W O O U O U O T O T D L H D L H AN F AN F O O D A Brookhill D A Brookhill Neighborhood 1 S R N S R N K N K N R A R A R R

D V R D V R I

I I I I I

V V

R O R O A A

Summary K V N K V

N R N R

R E R E

A O A O F S F S

E E R

H R R R H R R

I T I T

V Stonefield remains the largest active development U R V U R

O E D O E D E

S V E S V RI R L RI R L R R in this area. Although it is unlikely to build out to its R A R R A R O I O I D R V M T D R V M T R E E R R E E R maximum approved density, capacity still remains S K S K E R E E R E

L L L L

L E L E

O O

I for development of multifamily and lodging projects. B I B

V N V N

I I S

Woodbrook M S Woodbrook M Y

E Y E L

The Rio29 Small Area Plan, which was adopted in W Station S L W Station S

D R D

B R R B

A A

December 2018, anticipates future growth and O O E

E I E I

R R R R

D Oakleigh D Oakleigh redevelopment in the vicinity of Rio Road and Route K K

R M R M ZMA R ZMA R 29. A I A I S S D R O D R O B R B R D R D R M C M C I D I D The northern portion of this area between Berkmar A L R A L R L U E L U E Drive and Woodburn Road includes a number of A A R R L L D R D R parcels with discrepancies between R6 and R15 Y T Y T H H E E Residential zoning designations and an Office/ L L O O N Belvedere N Belvedere R&D/Flex/Light Industrial comprehensive plan Commonwealth I Commonwealth I H M R H M R designation, resulting in some variability between This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as Y E I Y E I D Apartments S O D Apartments S O R R R R zoning and comprehensive plan capacity scenarios. sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 A A D D internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated U U As the few remaining vacant parcels build out, L Stonefield E L Stonefield E I I C EA DO C EA DO using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking M W M W development and redevelopment is expected to R C R C D R D R System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not E E be primarily higher-density attached or multifamily C I T Y O F E C I T Y O F E guaranteed to be accurate. K K development, as has been seen in recent years. Dunlora Dunlora C H A R L O T T E S V I L L E Park Ph. 2 C H A R L O T T E S V I L L E Park Ph. 2

Approved Pipeline Projects Comprehensive Plan Legend Units S Project Name W O Remaining O U O T Number of Potential Units D L H AN F O Stonefield 529 D A Brookhill S R N 2 - 10 K N R A R D V R

Greenfield Terrace 33 I I I 11 - 50 V

R O A

N K V N R

R E A O Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 Oakleigh 22 F S 51-100 E

R H R R

I T V U R O E D

# Single- E S V Woodbrook Station 8 RI R L R 101-250 R A R Family Total % SFD O I RD R R V M T E S E K Detached Berkmar Overlook 71 E R E

L L L E

I B 250-1000 V N N'hood 1 1 343 0.3% Commonwealth Apartments 22 I

S Woodbrook M

Y E

For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. L W Station S

R D R B

A 1000+ O E

E I R R

D Oakleigh Residential Capacity Estimate K R M ZMA R A I S Unit Types Estimated D R O Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + B R Estimated Estimated Approved D R Population at M C I D Current Current Units in Scenario Scenario Full Buildout A L R Full Buildout L U E Potential Single-Family Development A Scenario Population Units Pipeline R L Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High D R Y T H Potential Attached & Multi-Family F = G = A + A + E A B C D D E E L 1 2 1 2 Development C+(D1+D2) C+(E1+E2) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) O N Belvedere Commonwealth I H M R Zoning E I Y Apartments O 320 60 457 86 994 1,157 10,632 11,046 D S Approved Developments R (Gross) R A D U Zoning L Stonefield E I 8,107 3,964 614 283 60 408 86 957 1,108 10,538 10,921 C EA DO (Net) M W R C D R E E Comp. C I T Y O F K 185 35 846 204 834 1,664 10,225 12,334 Plan Dunlora C H A R L O T T E S V I L L E Park Ph. 2 14 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 15 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density)

L L R R R R D T D T K K E E R E E R E E A L R A L R M C M C O L O L K K Neighborhood 2 N L N L R I E R I E W W E M E M B O B O E P E P S S Summary Woodbrook Woodbrook

Station Station

S S

This area has seen continued growth since 2009, Greenfield Terrace Greenfield Terrace O U

Oakleigh Oakleigh U T T

H with a number of multi-family units constructed L L H

ZMA R ZMA R F

T T F O

near Route 29 at Arden Place and a mix of single- O R

E E R K family and multi-family units in Belvedere. The L L K O R O R

N I N I I V I V East Rio Road corridor has seen continued growth, M A M A N N E N E N S R Belvedere A S R Belvedere A potentially spurred by the availability of R4 R R I I I I O V O V E E

Residential-zoned land and the completion of the R R R

ED BU R ED BU D R D C D R D C John Warner Parkway. Free R E E K Free R E E K

E State E State Though a limited number of developable parcels Run Run R R remain in the area, those that do are typically large E E IV IV R R ME A ME A acreages. A large parcel designated for Urban A N A N D N D N O Dunlora A O Dunlora A W V W V Density Residential / Neighborhood Service Center C I C I R R R R E Park Ph. 1 E Park Ph. 1 use at the corner of John Warner Parkway and Rio E Dunlora E Dunlora K K YPark Ph. 2 YPark Ph. 2 Road East represents one of the largest remaining W D W D This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as K R K R development sites in the County's Urban Ring. A P T P T N N sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 R I R I E E number of large parcels also exist between the The Lofts O The Lofts O internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated N P N P

R R A Belvedere/Dunlora developments and the Rivanna at Meadow Y A at Meadow Y using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking N N W O W O River, though their development potential may be Creek T Creek T System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not S S W W limited by access needs and extensive floodplain. N N guaranteed to be accurate. H H J O J O The Rio29 Small Area Plan, which was adopted in December 2018, anticipates future growth and redevelopment in the vicinity of Rio Road and Route 29. Approved Pipeline Projects Comprehensive Plan Legend

L R R Units D T K Project Name E Number of Potential Units Remaining R E E A L R M C O L K N L 2 - 10 R I E Belvedere 244 W E M B O E P 11 - 50 S The Lofts at Meadow Creek 65 Woodbrook

Station 51-100

Dunlora Park Ph. 1 17 Greenfield Terrace O Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 U

Oakleigh

T L H 101-250

# Single- ZMA R Dunlora Park Ph. 2 14 F

T O

Family Total % SFD E R

L K Detached Free State Run 2 O 250-1000 R

N I I V M A N N'hood 2 295 1,082 27.3% Stonewater 1 E N S R Belvedere A R I I O V E 1000+ For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. R

R ED BU

D R D C Free R E E K Residential Capacity Estimate E State Unit Types Estimated Run Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + R Estimated Estimated Approved E Population at IV Potential Single-Family Development Scenario Scenario Full Buildout R Current Current Units in ME A Full Buildout A N D N Scenario Population Units Pipeline O Dunlora A W V C I Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High R R Potential Attached & Multi-Family E Park Ph. 1 E Dunlora F = G = A + A + K Development Y A B C D1 D2 E1 E2 Park Ph. 2 C+(D1+D2) C+(E1+E2) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) W D K R P T Zoning N Approved Developments 290 745 433 1,120 1,378 1,896 14,466 15,782 R I E (Gross) O N The Lofts P

A at Meadow Y Zoning N W O 10,966 4,846 343 243 245 366 372 831 1,081 13,077 13,712 Creek T (Net) S W N Comp. H 314 187 1,288 380 844 2,011 13,110 16,074 J O Plan 16 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 17 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density) The Lofts The Lofts at Meadow at Meadow

Creek D Creek D Neighborhood 3 (Pantops) R R T T E N E N CR E I CR E I OW K O OW K O D P D P Summary A A E Y E Y M N M N O Ashcroft O Ashcroft Pantops continues to see growth with ongoing T T construction in Cascadia and Riverside Village as S West Ph. 5 S West Ph. 5 well as Hyland Park (Fontana 4C). Since 2009, every E L Cascadia E L Cascadia K K D R D R residential Certificate of Occupancy issued has been Riverside F Riverside F ON Fontana ON Fontana T T Village A Village A in areas north of Route 250. 4C 4C N A N A LO D R Fontana LO D R Fontana NG NG The Pantops Master Plan, which was updated in June S DR 4C S DR 4C T O LY M P I A T O LY M P I A 2019, anticipates future growth and redevelopment in suburban commercial centers along Route 250. S O S O U U TH R TH R Although many of these areas were not identified as I C I C PA H PA H redevelopment candidates in this analysis, they may N M N M

T O T O

O N O N R

D add additional capacity in the future. D D D P P S R S R D O D O D R G D R G Most of the development potential in Pantops R I C E R I C E H L H L M M comes in the form of multifamily infill or Peter O Peter O

N N H

Jefferson D Jefferson H D redevelopment of existing commercial areas. Hilly This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as I R I R

C C Place D Place D topography and the Rivanna's floodplain creates sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 K K Woolen M Woolen M

A K A K internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated N N variation in development scenarios and density Mills E Mills E S E S E using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking B R B R R R ranges, depending on if a net or gross development E C E C 4 W I- 6 4 A 4 W I- 6 4 A 6 L 6 L System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not I- N I- N L L scenario is used. Single-family capacity exists along C S H A D W E C S H A D W E guaranteed to be accurate. H H the northern and eastern edges of the Development RI V A N NA RI VE R RI V A N NA RI VE R Area, although access issues may limit development potential in the near-term.

Comprehensive Plan Legend The Lofts at Meadow Number of Potential Units

Creek D Approved Pipeline Projects R 2 - 10 T E N Units CR E I 11 - 50 Project Name OW K O D P Remaining A E Y M N 51-100 O Ashcroft Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 Cascadia 69* T S West Ph. 5 101-250 # Single- Fontana 4C (Hyland Park) 34 E L Cascadia Family Total % SFD K D R Detached Peter Jefferson Place 250 Riverside F 250-1000 ON Fontana T Village A 4C Pantops 188 719 26.1% Riverside Village 28* N A LO D R Fontana NG For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. S DR 4C 1000+ T O L P I A * - Adjusted figure used. Y M

Residential Capacity Estimate S O Unit Types U TH R Estimated I C PA H Estimated Estimated Approved Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + M Population at N Scenario Scenario Full Buildout T O Potential Single-Family Development

Current Current Units in O N R Full Buildout D D P Scenario Population Units Pipeline S R D O Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High D R G Potential Attached & Multi-Family R I C E H L Development F = G = A + A + Peter M A B C D1 D2 E1 E2 O C+(D1+D2) C+(E1+E2) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) N

Jefferson H D

I R

C Zoning Place D Approved Developments 377 5 505 6 763 892 6,842 7,170 K (Gross) Woolen M A K Mills N E S E Zoning B R R 4,904 2,320 381 181 3 242 4 565 627 6,339 6,497 E C 4 W I- 6 4 A 6 L (Net) I- N L C S H A D W E Comp. H 186 32 779 109 599 1,269 6,425 8,127 Plan RI V A N NA RI VE R 18 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 19 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density)

OR OR O E S C O E S C M R M R A RRIS E E A RRIS E E H R K H R K D W D W S S Neighborhood 4 H H T T C T T C S N S N X A X A H E R H E R CR E T B CR E T B S E K 5 T S E K 5 T Summary M O O R E T E W M O O R E T E W S E O S E O H R W R C H R W R C T T 64 D T T 64 D I - E I - E The Avon Street Extended corridor has seen 5 S 5 S T I -64 G T I -64 G S E E S E E N N 5 T H L 5 T H L the most growth in this area, with a number of N O C L N O C L U V O U V O R R A A townhouse/attached developments constructed T T I I U U in the preceding 10 years and more to come with C U TH ER WY C U TH ER WY S S O N K S S O N K I P I P the approved Avinity Estates and Spring Hill Village B B M K DR H M K DR H I C I C L E N L E N developments. E M A E M A L C R I R L C R I R L CRE B L CRE B L EK L EK

W W D L L D R A O R A O A number of pockets exist with opportunities E K C E K C Avinity R Avinity R Y N E Y N E O O for either single-family or denser townhouse or V Moss V Moss IA IA multifamily development between Avon Street Avinity Avinity Extended and Scottsville Road south of Mill Creek Spring II RD Spring II RD LE LE Hill I L Hill I L Drive, though they are somewhat scattered between V V S S Village T Village T existing institutional and industrial users and consist T T O O C C of smaller parcels. S S Avon Avon Near Mill Creek Drive and to the north are a number This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as Park II Park II of institutional landowners including the County sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 and Piedmont Virginia Community College (PVCC). internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated Although the County property along Mill Creek Drive using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking has not been programmed for future use, the PVCC System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not guaranteed to be accurate. property's frontage along Avon Street Extended has the potential to support a large multifamily development.

Comprehensive Plan Legend

Approved Pipeline Projects OR O E S C M R A RRIS E E Number of Potential Units H R K Units D W Project Name S H 2 - 10 Remaining T T C S N X A H E R 11 - 50 CR E T B Avinity 2* S E K 5 T M O O R E T E W S E O H R W R C 51-100 Avinity Estates 93 T T - 64 D Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 5 S I E T I -64 G S E E N 5 T H L # Single- Avon Park II 31 N O C L 101-250 U V O R A Family Total % SFD T I 2511 Avinity Drive 24 U Detached C U TH ER WY 250-1000 S S O N K I P Spring Hill Village 100 B N'hood 4 23 126 18.3% M K DR H I C L E N E M A For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. L C R I R L CRE B 1000+ L EK * - Adjusted figure used. W

L D R A O E K C Avinity R Y N E Residential Capacity Estimate O V Moss IA Unit Types Estimated Avinity Estimated Estimated Approved Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + Population at Spring II RD Current Current Units in Scenario Scenario Full Buildout LE Potential Single-Family Development Full Buildout Hill I L V Scenario Population Units Pipeline S Village T Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High T O Potential Attached & Multi-Family F = G = A + A + C A B C D D E E S Development 1 2 1 2 Avon C+(D1+D2) C+(E1+E2) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) Park II Zoning 54 17 84 29 321 363 5,295 5,402 Approved Developments (Gross) Zoning 4,480 1,726 250 51 14 81 25 315 356 5,280 5,384 (Net) Comp. 160 42 700 108 452 1,058 5,628 7,167 Plan 20 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 21 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density) M M O O

R R R E D E R E D E S E RV R Y S E RV R Y O I R C O I R C R R E E

Neighborhood 5 E E K K

CR CR D E S E E D E S E E Summary R O R I- K T R O R I- K T O 6 X O 6 X I L M 4 E I L M 4 E A A R W E R W E The 5th Street / Old Lynchburg Road corridor has T U T U N N N N CA E CA E seen significant growth over the past 10 years, A R V A R V N A N A O E D O E D F T F T with a number of large multifamily developments M I M I E E I E E I L - L - S 6 S 6 D 4 D 4 constructed near Interstate 64 and large-lot single- N N S E S E

U U

S S family developments such as Oak Hill (Wintergreen) R R D D Brookdale T Brookdale T Farm and Whittington. Much of the development Wintergreen S Wintergreen S S H S H along this corridor has happened by-right. Farm Ph. 2B 5TH T5 T Farm Ph. 2B 5TH T5 T A number of properties with Urban Density Wintergreen Wintergreen Wintergreen Wintergreen Farm Ph. 1 Farm Ph. 1 Residential and Community Mixed Use designations Farm Ph. 3 Farm Ph. 3 ST ST R Y UI R Y UI are located along this corridor and provide O SC T O SC T H I C K I RU H I C K I RU opportunities for residential infill and some B N B N

commercial development along this largely

S S residential corridor. Planning for the redevelopment T T

O O

N N

of the Southwood Mobile Home Park is underway. E

Y Y C

This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as D C D Whittington R Biscuit Run Whittington R Biscuit Run R R West of Sunset Avenue Extended are large land sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 G Remainder E G Remainder E R E K R E K U D U D internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated N R N R holdings near Interstate 64 with development B B U U

using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking H R H R

potential that is currently restricted by access and C C T T I

N I N

U System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not Y U Y

L L C utility issues. The Granger property, located between C Avon Avon S S guaranteed to be accurate. D I D I Sunset Avenue Extended and Fontaine Avenue, is L B Park II L B Park II O O designated Neighborhood Density Residential. The southwest quadrant of the Interstate 64/Route 29 interchange is designated Regional Mixed Use and Approved Pipeline Projects also has significant development potential, though Units Project Name Comprehensive Plan Legend terrain and access issues will pose challenges. M Remaining O

R R E D E Number of Potential Units S E RV R Y Biscuit Run Remainder 100 O I R C R E

E 2 - 10 Whittington 28 K 11 - 50 CR D E S E E Brookdale 96 R O R I- K T O 6 X I L M 4 E 51-100 A R W E Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 Oak Hill (Wintergreen) Farm Ph. 1 8 T U N N A E C V 101-250 A R # Single- N A Oak Hill (Wintergreen) Farm Ph. 2A 1 O E D F T M I Family Total % SFD E E I L - S 6 D 4 Oak Hill (Wintergreen) Farm Ph. 2B 3 N 250-1000 Detached S E

S R N'hood 5 157 570 27.5% Oak Hill (Wintergreen) Farm Ph. 3 4 D Brookdale T Wintergreen S For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. S H 1000+ Farm Ph. 2B 5TH T5 T Wintergreen Residential Capacity Estimate Wintergreen Unit Types Farm Ph. 3 Farm Ph. 1 Estimated Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + ST Estimated Estimated Approved R Y UI Population at O SC T H I C K I RU Potential Single-Family Development Scenario Scenario Full Buildout B Current Current Units in Full Buildout N Scenario Population Units Pipeline

Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High Potential Attached & Multi-Family S

F = G = A + A + O Development

A B C D1 D2 E1 E2 N

C+(D +D ) C+(E +E ) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) E 1 2 1 2 Y

D C Whittington R Biscuit Run Zoning R Approved Developments 172 121 256 182 533 678 7,881 8,249 G Remainder E (Gross) R E K U D N R B U

Zoning H R C 6,527 2,984 240 142 88 209 136 470 585 7,721 8,013 T

N I (Net) Y U L

C Avon S D I Comp. L B Park II 216 138 959 412 594 1,611 8,036 10,619 O Plan 22 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 23 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density)

Kenridge Kenridge Neighborhood 6 S S S S A A White P White P D Y D Y R B R B V Y Gables V Y Gables Summary I 9 I 9 2 2 R / R / D 0 D 0 5 O 5 O M 2 L M 2 L Recent development in this area has been limited to A D A D N I V I N I V I D Y V D Y V small infill and the Poplar Glen development, and no E Y E Y D RD RD D RD RD projects are currently in the pipeline. R R Y Y R R U Y U Y B P B P R R R R D X D X Redevelopment and infill opportunities exist along E E

M T E M T E A A N N N N the Ivy Road corridor, south of Ivy Road and east A S A S D D C C S S E E of the Route 29 Bypass, where there is currently a A A

P P small number of vacant parcels and single-family Y Y

B B

R NT R NT

H O H O D

T M D T M homes. P A 9 E P A 9 E D E E R 2 G D E E R 2 G Y D Y D

P E RD P E RD The greatest potential for future development in X K X K

C C

E CC E CC I

M O I M O this area exists in the Reservoir Road area, south R R S M S M

S S of the Bellair and Liberty Hills subdivisions. Many A A

P P of these parcels have larger acreages, though hilly Y Y B B topography may limit development potential. 9 9 2 2 MO MO This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as R R E E However, a significant number of these parcels and RD Y RD Y sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 I R C I R C O R O R about half of the theoretical capacity in this area internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated RE V E RE V E S E R E S E R E K K is under the control of the University of Virginia using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking I -6 4 I I -6 4 I E - 64 E - 64 Foundation. Uncertainty about future plans for these System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not W W guaranteed to be accurate. properties and conditions along Reservoir Road may S CR E S CR E R E E K R E E K OO OO limit future development. Additionally, the Birdwood M M property is identified in the Southern & Western Urban Neighborhoods Master Plan as having potential for mixed-use or residential development. Comprehensive Plan Legend However, this will require consideration and redesignation in future planning efforts. Number of Potential Units Kenridge SS 2 - 10 A White P R D Y 11 - 50 Y Gables B I V 9 2 R / D 0 51-100 5 O Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 M 2 L A D N I V I D Y V # Single- E Y 101-250 D RD RD Family Total % SFD R Y R Detached U Y 250-1000 B P R R D X E

M T E N'hood 6 9 45 20.0% A N N A S D C S E 1000+ A

B NT R H O

Residential Capacity Estimate T M D P A 9 E Unit Types D E E R 2 G Estimated Y D Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + P E RD Estimated Estimated Approved X Population at K

E CC I Potential Single-Family Development Scenario Scenario Full Buildout M OR Current Current Units in Full Buildout S M Scenario Population Units Pipeline S Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High A P Potential Attached & Multi-Family

Y F = G = A + A + B Development A B C D D E E 1 2 1 2 9 C+(D1+D2) C+(E1+E2) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) 2 MO R Zoning E 361 240 530 351 601 881 9,377 10,088 RD Y Approved Developments (Gross) I R C O R RE V E S E R E Zoning K I -6 4 I 7,850 1,024 0 193 179 288 261 372 549 8,795 9,244 E - 64 (Net) W Comp. S CR E 448 398 989 890 846 1,879 9,999 12,623 R E E K OO Plan M 24 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 25 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density)

Neighborhood 7 K K E E I V Y C R E I V Y C R E Summary B A B A R D R D R R R R A C A C K N K N Recent development in this area has been limited to S W S W R O R R O R D T D D T D N N

E E the Out of Bounds development on Barracks Road, O O G T G T which is finishing construction, and the Kenridge R G R G O N O N E I E I development on Ivy Road. G N G N

N N

O O

E E L L

B B D D Out Of Out Of

Much of the capacity in this area is located in Bounds N Bounds N G B G B A A A A properties on Old Ivy Road, which could provide R R R R T R T R H A H A opportunities for multi-family development, though C C R A S S K R A S S K D P D P /2 9 BY S /2 9 BY S transportation improvements will likely be necessary Kenridge S 25 0 R N Kenridge S 25 0 R N AS AS P H D R D T P H D R D T Y S Y S in this corridor. A significant amount of capacity B S B S

White A White A

N 9 N T 9 T also exists in the Westover property on the edge of 2 E 2 E Gables / Gables / 0 M 0 M the Development Area west of the Route 29 Bypass, 5 M 5 M 2 E 2 E which is also owned by the University of Virginia I V O LD I V O LD Y I M Y I M R V A R V A Foundation. Y D Y Y D Y P S P S D I RD S N D I RD S N X V I X V I R Y R E R Y R E E D RD T E D RD T Y S Y S R R This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as S S U U T T B S B S E E sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 R A I R A I E V E V T P Y M T P Y M

Y Y internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated N R M N R M

B D B D A E A E using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking C C 9 9 System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not 2 2

guaranteed to be accurate. H H T T P A P A D E E R D E E R

Comprehensive Plan Legend

Number of Potential Units

K 2 - 10 E Approved Pipeline Projects E I V Y C R 11 - 50 B A Units R D Project Name R R 51-100 Remaining A C Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 K N S W R O R D T D # Single- Kenridge 8 N 101-250 E O Family Total % SFD G T R G O N Detached Out of Bounds 1* E I

G N 250-1000

N O

E L

N'hood 7 7 47 14.9% White Gables 46 B D Out Of

Bounds N For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. G B A A 1000+ R R * - Adjusted figure used. T R H A C Residential Capacity Estimate R A S S K D P /2 9 BY S Kenridge S 25 0 R N Unit Types AS Estimated P H D R D T Y S Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + B S

Estimated Estimated Approved Population at White A 9 N T Current Current Units in Scenario Scenario Full Buildout 2 E Full Buildout Gables / Potential Single-Family Development 0 M M Scenario Population Units Pipeline 5 2 E Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High I V O LD Y I M Potential Attached & Multi-Family F = G = A + A + R V A A B C D D E E Y D Y 1 2 1 2 P S Development C+(D +D ) C+(E +E ) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) D I RD S N 1 2 1 2 X V I R Y R E E D RD T Y S Zoning R U S 559 56 777 77 670 909 5,583 6,190 T B S Approved Developments E (Gross) R A I E V T P Y M

Y N R M

Zoning B D A E 3,881 1,901 55 511 39 712 51 605 818 5,418 5,959 C (Net) 9

2 Comp. H 152 219 476 526 426 1,057 4,963 6,566 T Plan P A D E E R 26 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 27 Zoning (Gross Density) Legend P K O EE W B C R E A C E R IR E S V E R R V V O Number of Potential Units L T E K A E R L E E S D S G E R E B R N C O R Crozet W R G 2 - 10 E E T O E A E K V Blue Ridge N E St. George 11 - 50 A L Properties Cohousing Summary T H RE E Creekside The E N O T V C H ' D 51-100 T RD A The Community of Crozet has experienced 3, P 3D Vue S Foothill T Wickham E P Crossing Foothill

significant growth in recent years. In addition to Z O Pond 2 101-250

O H O I

H L L T Foothill Crossing L R

D projects approved via rezoning in Old Trail Village, C Wickham L Crossing Ph. 4 & 5 E F P L Blue Ridge Cohousing (Emerson Commons), T A R Pond 1 M R K O 250-1000 R A H I D Westlake N L I and Wickham Pond, by-right development has L G I E L HO Westlake I N S D I C K I N G L R Hills K A E Chesterfield D I C B R L L B continued east of Crozet Avenue on (formerly) C H A L Hills R T R E K Landing E S Ph. 4 A E W 1000+ vacant parcels with vacant R-1 and R-2 residential N Old Ph. 3 Foxchase C Sparrow

H Trail zoning designations, including portions of the Chesterfield Hill Westlake Landing - R ZMA RA NCH Westlake D B Landing II Hills Lots 13 & 14 Unit Types Foothill Crossing, Chesterfield Landing, Westlake N W Hills T O Ph. 2 Hills, and Sparrow Hill developments. Areas with A B Ph. 1 S L Potential Single-Family existing R-6 zoning west of Downtown and north of R O C K F IS H G A P T P K E Development Jarman's Gap Road provide opportunity for by-right development and additional housing mix. Old Trail Potential Attached & Village, was approved for 1,000-2,200 units and is Multi-Family Development Zoning (Net Density) expected to build out near 1,200 total units. P K This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as O EE W B C R E A C E R IR Approved Developments E S V E R R V V O sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 L T E K A E R Discrepancies exist between development potential L E E S D S G E R E B R internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated N C O R under the current zoning and the Crozet Master W R G E E using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking T O E A E K V Blue Ridge Approved Pipeline Plan's land use designations due to extensive N E St. George System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not A L Properties Cohousing environmental features (such as stream buffers and guaranteed to be accurate. T H RE E Projects Creekside The E N O T V C H ' D T RD floodplain areas) and additional areas designated A 3, P 3D Vue S Foothill T Wickham Units for open space in the Master Plan. Examples of P E Crossing Foothill Project Name

Z O Pond 2 Remaining O H O I

this are evident along the southern edge of the H L L T Foothill Crossing L R

D C Wickham L Crossing Ph. 4 & 5 Development Area. E F P L Blue Ridge Cohousing/ Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 T A R Pond 1 M R K O 19 R H I A Emerson Commons D Westlake N L I L G I # Single- E L Few large parcels remain without development HO Westlake I N S D I C K I N G L R Hills K A E Chesterfield D I C 1 B R L L B Family Total % SFD C A L Hills Old Trail Village 1,816 approvals or applications in site design review. Infill R TH R E K Landing E S Ph. 4 A E W of existing areas may become a more significant Detached N Old Ph. 3 Foxchase C Sparrow St. George Properties 3

H Trail

portion of future housing development in Crozet. Chesterfield Hill Westlake Landing - Crozet 705 1,179 59.8% R ZMA RA NCH Westlake D B Landing II Hills Lots 13 & 14 The Vue 126 N W Hills B T O Ph. 2 Residential Capacity Estimate S L A Ph. 1 Westlake Hills Ph. 1 5 A P T P K E Estimated R O C K F IS H G Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + Estimated Estimated Approved Population at Westlake Hills Ph. 2 12 Current Current Units in Scenario Scenario Full Buildout Full Buildout Westlake Hills Ph. 3 16 Scenario Population Units Pipeline Comprehensive Plan Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High P K O EE Westlake Hills Ph. 4 45 W B C R F = G = A + A + E A C E R IR E S V E R R V V O A B C D D E E L T E K A E R 1 2 1 2 L E E S C+(D1+D2) C+(E1+E2) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) D S G E R E B R Chesterfield Landing 5 N C O R W R G Zoning O E E T E K A 452 286 722 439 3,046 3,469 16,107 17,181 E V E St. George Blue Ridge Chesterfield Landing II 7 (Gross) N A L Properties Cohousing T H RE E Zoning Creekside The E N O T Glenbrook at Foothills 168 V C H ' D 8,370 3,146 2,308 321 213 514 324 2,842 3,146 15,589 16,361 T RD A (Net) 3, P 3D Vue S Foothill Wickham T Wickham Pond I 2 E P Crossing Foothill

Comp. Z O Pond 2

O H O I

H L L T Foothill Crossing 223 212 602 457 2,743 3,367 15,337 16,922 L R

Plan D Wickham Pond II 50 C Wickham L Crossing Ph. 4 & 5 E F P L T A R Pond 1 M R K O R Creekside III, Phase 3D 2 A H I D Westlake N Residential Capacity Estimate (Adjusted for Old Trail Village 1,200 Unit Buildout) L I L G I E L HO Westlake I N S D I C K I N G L R Hills K A E Chesterfield D I C Foothill Crossing B R L L B Estimated Estimated Pipeline Units + Full Estimated Population at C H A L Hills R T 2 R E K Landing E S Ph. 4 Adjusted Buildout Full Buildout A E W Phases 4 & 5 Scenario Current Current N Old Ph. 3 Foxchase Pipeline C Sparrow

H Trail Population Units Low High Low High Chesterfield Hill Westlake Landing - Sparrow Hill 28 R ZMA RA NCH Westlake D B Landing II Hills Lots 13 & 14 N Zoning (Gross) 2,046 2,469 13,567 14,641 W Hills For pipeline project information, see B T O Ph. 2 L A Ph. 1 Appendix B. Zoning (Net) 8,370 3,146 1,308 1,842 2,146 13,049 13,821 S R O C K F IS H G A P T P K E 1 The Old Trail Village number shown Comp. Plan 1,743 2,367 12,797 14,382 assumes 2,200 unit buildout. 28 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 29 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density) Cedar Hill Cedar Hill Mobile Mobile

Hollymead Home Park Home Park

D D R Summary R North North

N Pointe N Pointe O ZMA O ZMA S S The Community of Hollymead is one of Albemarle R R E E County's largest Development Areas and has K A K A C IRP C IRP I O R I O R significant residential capacity in approved D T D T R 3223 R 3223 D D developments, including Hollymead Town Willow Proffit Willow Proffit Center, Brookhill, and North Pointe. These three Glen Road Glen Road Estes Estes developments alone currently have over 3,500 Hollymead Hollymead Park Park dwelling units in approved capacity that could be Town Town constructed after requisite site development plan Center A2 Center A2 L L approvals. R R T T H H E E O O L L L L L L Large portions of the Development Area include O L A O L A N Y K N Y K I M E I M E E E parcels zoned Rural Areas that could potentially M A D M A D E D R E D R S S support denser residential development under the T T

I I

F F F

Urban Density Residential land use designations. L F L

R R O

T O T

R R P E P E This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as L L O O sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 N N I I M Brookhill M Brookhill internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated E E using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking S S System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Approved Pipeline Projects Units Project Name Remaining Comprehensive Plan Legend Cedar Hill Brookhill 1,550 Mobile Number of Potential Units Home Park

North Pointe 893 2 - 10

D 11 - 50 Willow Glen 202 R North

N Pointe 51-100 Cedar Hill Mobile Home Park 32 O Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 ZMA S # Single- R Hollymead Town Center A2 1,222 E 101-250 K A IR Family Total % SFD I C P O D RT Detached Hollymead Town Center C 38 R 3223 D Willow Proffit 250-1000 Hollymead 103 268 38.4% 3223 Proffit Road 109 Glen Road Estes For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. Hollymead Park Town 1000+ Residential Capacity Estimate Center A2 L R Unit Types Estimated T Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + H Estimated Estimated Approved E Population at O L L Scenario Scenario Full Buildout L Current Current Units in O L A Full Buildout N Y K Potential Single-Family Development I M E Scenario Population Units Pipeline E M A D Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High E D R S T F = G = A + A + I Potential Attached & Multi-Family A B C D D E E F 1 2 1 2 C+(D +D ) C+(E +E ) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) L F Development 1 2 1 2 R

T O R

Zoning E P 633 173 845 229 4,743 5,011 20,464 21,145 L (Gross) O Approved Developments N I Zoning M Brookhill 8,417 3,294 3,937 603 170 800 223 4,710 4,960 20,380 21,015 E (Net) S Comp. 590 337 2,776 1,661 4,864 8,374 20,772 29,687 Plan

30 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 31 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density)

H H C C N N A A R R B B

G G

Piney Mountain N N I I R R D R D R R HE R HE RS O N RS O N Summary KE KE I C L I C L D R D R T T

The largest active development in Piney Mountain E E L L is Briarwood, which contains a mix of single-family O O N N I I detached and attached homes. A legislative approval M M E E S S was issued for residential units located east of L L R R T T Route 29 along Boulders Road near the National E E Ground Intelligence Center/Rivanna Station, but no L L O O N N development has occurred at this time. Briarwood I D Briarwood I D R R M S M S E R E R S E S E D D The majority of vacant parcels located on the B L B L O NGIC O NGIC U U U U O O east side of Route 29 are currently zoned Rural L B Residential L B Residential D E R D D E R D Areas, limiting by-right development potential. An S R S R approval dating to the 1970s for 350 senior units N N (ZMA197700019 Rivanna Estates) still exists with O R O R TH TH FO FO Planned Residential Development zoning. While R R

K K this development is not expected to occur, the R R R R I E I E V V V V This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as A I A I allowed density was counted in the high zoning N N A R N N A R sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 B R B R buildout scenarios. It was not considered in the T A N T A N A C A C internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated L H L H Comprehensive Plan buildout scenario. F F using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking North North Cedar Hill Cedar Hill System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not Pointe Pointe Mobile Mobile guaranteed to be accurate. ZMA ZMA Home Park Home Park

Comprehensive Plan Legend

H C N A Number of Potential Units R B

N 2 - 10 I R D R R HE 11 - 50 Approved Pipeline Projects RS O N KE Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 I C L D R 51-100 T # Single- Units Project Name E Remaining L Family Total % SFD O 101-250 N Detached I Briarwood 121 M E Piney S L 250-1000 95 183 51.9% R Mountain NGIC Residential 120 T

E For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. L O N 1000+ Briarwood I D R M S Residential Capacity Estimate E R S E D B L Estimated O NGIC Unit Types U U Estimated Estimated Approved Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + L O Residential Population at D E B Current Current Units in Scenario Scenario Full Buildout R S R D Full Buildout Potential Single-Family Development Scenario Population Units Pipeline Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High N O R F = G = A + A + TH Potential Attached & Multi-Family FO A B C D1 D2 E1 E2 R C+(D1+D2) C+(E1+E2) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) K Development

R R I E V V Zoning A I 64 5 426* 5 310 672 2,514 3,434 N R (Gross) N A Approved Developments B R T A N A C Zoning L H 1,727 664 241 64 5 426* 5 310 672 2,514 3,434 F (Net) North Cedar Hill Pointe Comp. Mobile 577 0 1,247 0 818 1,488 3,805 5,507 ZMA Plan Home Park

32 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 33 Zoning (Gross Density) Zoning (Net Density)

R D R D W I CK W I CK KE S KE S

Village of Rivanna R I CH R I CH Shadwell MO I- Shadwell MO I- ND 6 4 ND 6 4 R E I- R E I- Estates D 6 4 Estates D 6 4 W W Summary Rivanna Rivanna Village Village Glenmore (Leake and Livengood sections) continues Y R Y R RB D RB D to build out and Rivanna Village has begun A K A K D E E D E E

CR CR

P Glenmore L Glenmore L

construction on its initial phases, which will add an I

P P L L Livengood R O Livengood R O E A R E A R increased mix of housing types. C C R R W W AY R AY R Outside of approved developments, all vacant D D R R E E E E and infill-capable parcels within the Development D D G G Area are currently zoned Rural Areas, limiting N N I I

N N by-right development potential. These parcels are N N U U R R designated for Neighborhood Density Residential Y Y A A and Neighborhood Density Residential - Low land W W

R R

E E

uses in the Village of Rivanna Master Plan, which P P

I I includes recommendations for future development P P and infrastructure needs. Glenmore Glenmore Leake ZMA Leake ZMA

CA CA D K D K

R R E R R E R This visual shows estimated housing stock growth over time, as R K E K E E CR E CR O R E N E O R E N E sorted by type. The data sources are 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2019 LL C TO LL C TO E S E S I M I M internal population estimates. These estimates were calculated R L R L I V I V A A using parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking N N N N A A R R System, CountyView. This data is manually entered and is not I V I V guaranteed to be accurate. E R E R

Comprehensive Plan Legend

R D W I CK KE S Number of Potential Units

R I C Approved Pipeline Projects Shadwell H MO I- 2 - 10 ND 6 4 R E I- Estates D 6 4 11 - 50 Units W Unit Mix Constructed, 2009-2018 Project Name Rivanna Remaining Village 51-100 # Single- Y R Family Total % SFD Glenmore - Leake 79 RB D A K 101-250 D E E

Detached P

Glenmore L I Glenmore - Livengood 14 P L Livengood R O E A R Village of C 250-1000 114 114 100.0% R Rivanna Rivanna Village 382 W AY R D For pipeline project information, see Appendix B. R E E 1000+ D G N Residential Capacity Estimate I

N N Unit Types Estimated U Low Buildout High Buildout Pipeline Units + R Estimated Estimated Approved Y Population at A Scenario Scenario Full Buildout W Current Current Units in Full Buildout Potential Single-Family Development R Scenario Population Units Pipeline E

P Vacant Infill Vacant Infill Low High Low High I

P F = G = A + A + Potential Attached & Multi-Family A B C D D E E Glenmore 1 2 1 2 C+(D +D ) C+(E +E ) (F*2.54) (G*2.54) Development 1 2 1 2 Leake ZMA

CA D K Zoning R R E

R K E 27 18 27 18 520 520 3,599 3,599 E CR (Gross) O R E N E Approved Developments LL C TO E S I M Zoning R L I V 2,278 876 475 27 18 27 18 520 520 3,599 3,599 A N (Net) N A RI Comp. V E 160 113 180 198 748 853 4,178 4,445 R Plan

34 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 35 Appendix A: Estimate Tables

Zoning (Gross Density) Scenario Zoning (Net Density) Scenario 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 Capacity Capacity (low) (high) (low) (high) (low) (high) (low) (high) (low) (high) (low) (high) Projected Population1 111,039 125,718 138,485 Projected Population1 111,039 125,718 138,485 Current Population1 108,639 108,639 108,639 Current Population1 108,639 108,639 108,639 Population Growth2 2,400 17,079 29,846 Population Growth2 2,400 17,079 29,846

Residential Units Needed3 945 6,724 11,750 Residential Units Needed3 945 6,724 11,750

Units approved, but currently undeveloped Units approved, but currently undeveloped 8,843 8,843 8,843 8,843 8,843 8,843 -- in the pipeline4 -- in the pipeline4 Units possible via undeveloped properties Units possible via undeveloped properties that are not in the pipeline, but designated 5,035 7,604 5,035 7,604 5,035 7,604 that are not in the pipeline, but designated 3,653 5,578 3,653 5,578 3,653 5,578 for residential use under zoning5 for residential use under zoning5 Sum of units in the pipeline plus units Sum of units in the pipeline plus units available from undeveloped properties available from undeveloped properties 13,878 16,447 13,878 16,447 13,878 16,447 12,496 14,421 12,496 14,421 12,496 14,421 designated for residential use under designated for residential use under zoning6 zoning6

Units in excess of, or needed to Units in excess of, or needed to 12,933 15,502 7,154 9,723 2,128 4,697 11,551 13,476 5,772 7,697 746 2,671 accommodate Population Growth7 accommodate Population Growth7 1 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service: Population Projections for Virginia and its Localities, 2020-2040, 1 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service: Population Projections for Virginia and its Localities, 2020-2040, published June 2019; Intercensal Estimate for July 1, 2018, published January 28, 2019. published June 2019; Intercensal Estimate for July 1, 2018, published January 28, 2019. 2 Population Growth is determined by subtracting Current Population number from Projected Population number. 2 Population Growth is determined by subtracting Current Population number from Projected Population number. 3 The number of people divided by 2.54. This multiplier is derived using the average number of persons per unit, by 3 The number of people divided by 2.54. This multiplier is derived using the average number of persons per unit, by unit type from the 2017 Albemarle County Population/Housing Estimates (Development Areas). Due to the difficulty unit type from the 2017 Albemarle County Population/Housing Estimates (Development Areas). Due to the difficulty of projecting future population in group quarters, the multiplier does not attribute any future residents to facilities of projecting future population in group quarters, the multiplier does not attribute any future residents to facilities such as dormitories, detention centers, or institutional senior living. Instead, the population is distributed as if all such as dormitories, detention centers, or institutional senior living. Instead, the population is distributed as if all residents will live in individual dwelling units. It may reflect a greater need for dwelling units as shown in the tables, residents will live in individual dwelling units. It may reflect a greater need for dwelling units as shown in the tables, than will actually occur. than will actually occur. 4 The number of units that have been approved through Zoning Map Amendments (ZMA) and Special Use Permits 4 The number of units that have been approved through Zoning Map Amendments (ZMA) and Special Use Permits (SP) to-date but have yet to be constructed. (SP) to-date but have yet to be constructed. 5 The number of units possible under the comprehensive plan, but have yet to be planned for, or constructed. 5 The number of units possible under the comprehensive plan, but have yet to be planned for, or constructed. The “low” number represents units that could be built at the low end of the density scale recommended in the The “low” number represents units that could be built at the low end of the density scale recommended in the comprehensive plan. The “high” number represents units that could be built at the high end of the density scale comprehensive plan. The “high” number represents units that could be built at the high end of the density scale recommended in the comprehensive plan. Area for future development includes vacant parcels and portions of recommended in the comprehensive plan. Area for future development includes vacant parcels and portions of parcels of >2 acres with existing development where additional development could occur. parcels of >2 acres with existing development where additional development could occur. 6 The total number of units that may be constructed sometime in the future either due to being previously approved 6 The total number of units that may be constructed sometime in the future either due to being previously approved via ZMA or SP, or allowed under the comprehensive plan. via ZMA or SP, or allowed under the comprehensive plan. 7 The number of residential units in excess of (in black) or needed (in red) for the projected years, if all new units are 7 The number of residential units in excess of (in black) or needed (in red) for the projected years, if all new units are built in the Development Areas. built in the Development Areas.

36 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 37 578 8,777 7,310 2,278 1,727 8,417 3,881 8,370 7,850 6,527 4,480 4,904 8,107 ulation 41,062 12,722 12,253 67,505 10,966 109,146 Total Pop - 226 876 664 Total Units 4,018 5,778 3,301 5,689 3,294 1,901 3,146 1,024 2,984 1,726 2,320 4,846 3,964 45,757 18,786 26,745 Comprehensive Plan Scenario Dwelling - - - - - 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 - 23 33 48 94 ters 104 231 476 214 228 Capacity 262 lation Quar - 7,280 7,176 Popu - 5,671 (low) (high) (low) (high) (low) (high) Group Projected Population1 111,039 125,718 138,485 - - - - 6 3 1 3 Current Population 108,639 108,639 108,639 12 495 268 195 297 405 381 lation 4,331 1,255 3,070 Popu - 1,016 1,249 Population Growth2 2,400 17,079 29,846 - plier 3.07 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3 3.07 Residential Units Needed 945 6,724 11,750 Multi Mobile Homes - - - - 2 1 1 Units approved, but currently undeveloped 4 ing 713 281 152 111 169 132 331 407 8,843 8,843 8,843 124 4 Units 1,715 1,000 -- in the pipeline Dwell - Units possible via undeveloped properties - - that are not in the pipeline, but designated 4,924 15,787 4,924 15,787 4,924 15,787 - 16 22 95 675 559 162 477 762 5 765 lation Popu - 1,819 2,240 2,113 2,930 3,967 15,927 for residential use under zoning 15,235 Sum of units in the pipeline plus units - available from undeveloped properties 13,767 24,630 13,767 24,630 13,767 24,630 plier 1.59 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 designated for residential use under Multi zoning6 Family Condos - - - 10 16 69 ing 493 408 102 300 479 481 Multi-Family and Single- Units 9,582 1,144 1,409 1,329 1,843 2,495 Dwell -

Units in excess of, or needed to 10,085 12,822 23,685 7,043 17,906 2,017 12,880 accommodate Population Growth7 1 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service: Population Projections for Virginia and its Localities, 2020-2040, 42 40 47 36 722 102 533 889 289 655 lation Popu - 1,134 1,737 1,737 1,102 1,474 2,772 published June 2019; Intercensal Estimate for July 1, 2018, published January 28, 2019. 2,197 14,785 2 Population Growth is determined by subtracting Current Population number from Projected Population number. 14,022

3 The number of people divided by 2.54. This multiplier is derived using the average number of persons per unit, by - unit type from the 2017 Albemarle County Population/Housing Estimates (Development Areas). Due to the difficulty plier 2.60 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 of projecting future population in group quarters, the multiplier does not attribute any future residents to facilities Multi such as dormitories, detention centers, or institutional senior living. Instead, the population is distributed as if all residents will live in individual dwelling units. It may reflect a greater need for dwelling units as shown in the tables, TH, SFA, DUP than will actually occur. 16 18 46 21 14 ing 325 240 436 668 342 668 111 252 424 567 845 Units 5,734 5,393 1,066 4 The number of units that have been approved through Zoning Map Amendments (ZMA) and Special Use Permits Dwell - (SP) to-date but have yet to be constructed. 5 The number of units possible under the comprehensive plan, but have yet to be planned for, or constructed. 515

The “low” number represents units that could be built at the low end of the density scale recommended in the 590 lation 8,221 Popu - 7,035 2,239 5,834 1,079 5,187 1,128 2,382 2,124 1,102 5,036 1,300 66,823 38,306 12,234 10,816 comprehensive plan. The “high” number represents units that could be built at the high end of the density scale 28,002 recommended in the comprehensive plan. Area for future development includes vacant parcels and portions of - parcels of >2 acres with existing development where additional development could occur. plier 2.60 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 6 The total number of units that may be constructed sometime in the future either due to being previously approved 2.60 Multi via ZMA or SP, or allowed under the comprehensive plan.

7 The number of residential units in excess of (in black) or needed (in red) for the projected years, if all new units are Single Family built in the Development Areas. ing 198 861 227 415 434 916 817 424 500 Units 3,703 5,511 3,169 4,872 2,244 1,995 1,937 Dwell - 28,223 17,255 10,770 Crozet Rivanna Town of COUNTY Village of Places 29 Places 29 Plan Area DEV AREA Scottsville SUBTOTAL SUBTOTAL 3 - Pantops Piney Mtn. - ALBEMARLE Hollymead - Rural Area 4 Rural Area 3 Rural Area 2 Rural Area 1 2 - Places 29 1 - Places 29 RURAL AREA Neighborhood Neighborhood Neighborhood Comprehensive Neighborhood 7 Neighborhood 6 Neighborhood 5 Neighborhood 4 2019 Albemarle County Population/Housing Estimates Notes on Methodology: Due to the varying types of Group Quarters (dormitories, fraternities and sororities, elderly care facilities) dwelling unit counts were not collected for group quarters, instead population figures were gathered by ascertaining the census of facility at time estimate. Dwelling unit counts for all other dwelling units types calculated, Comprehensive Plan Area, from parcel data in Albemarle County's Development Tracking System, CountyView. Multipliers for these areas were based on a sample of the average number persons per housing unit type as found in Census Bureau's 2011- 2015 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates. The average number of persons per housing unit type were grouped together by the Comprehensive Plan Areas with rural characteristics (Rural 1-4), Comprehensive Plan's remaining designated Development Areas (Neighborhoods 1-7, Crozet, Hollymead, Piney Mountain, and Rivanna), the Town of Scottsville. The vacancy rate is factored in by including vacant dwelling units when compiling the multiplier. Prepared by Albemarle County Community Development Department, July 2019. 38 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 39 Appendix B: Pipeline Projects Approved by Special Use Permit / Zoning Map Amendment (since 2001) Staff-Adjusted Special Use Permit / Zoning Map Amendment Buildout Estimates Development Project Name Maximum Units Units Unbuilt Project Name Maximum Units Adjusted Units Unbuilt Adjusted Unused Site Plan Area Approved1 Built2 Units Approved1 Buildout2 Built3 Units Unbuilt Approved Approval A B A-B Units Capacity Information A A B A-B A -B A-A Neighborhood 1 Greenfield Terrace 33 0 33 1 1 1 Avinity 108 107 105 3 2 1 Phase 1: 67 units Oakleigh Farm 22 0 22 Phases 2-3: 33 units Stonefield (Albemarle Place) 800 271 529 Phase 4: 7 units Cascadia 330 266 197 133 69 64 Blocks 1-3: 120 units Woodbrook Station 8 0 8 Blocks 4-7: 146 units Neighborhood 2 Belvedere 775 531 244 Out of Bounds 56 52 51 5 1 4 Phase 1: 38 units Phase 2: 14 units The Lofts at Meadow Creek 65 0 65 Riverside Village 105 93 65 40 28 12 Blocks 1: 24 units Pantops Cascadia 330 197 133 Blocks 2-4: 45 units Block 5: 24 units Fontana Phase 4C 34 0 34 1 Maximum residential units allowed under approved Zoning Map Amendment or Special Use Permit. Peter Jefferson Place 250 0 250 2 All final site plans/subdivision plats for this development have been approved as of July 1, 2019 and no land remains to Riverside Village 105 65 40 support additional units up to the maximum originally approved by the Zoning Map Amendment or Special Use Permit. 3 Units within approved project boundaries issued a certificate of occupancy as of July 1, 2019. Neighborhood 4 Avinity 108 105 3 Avinity II 102 9 93 Approved by Site Plan / Subdivision Plat (By-Right) Avon Park II 32 0 32 Development Project Name Units Units Unbuilt Spring Hill Village 100 0 100 Area Approved1 Built2 Units Neighborhood 5 Remaining Portion of Biscuit 100 0 100 A B A-B Run Neighborhood 1 Commonwealth Apartments 22 0 22 Whittington 96 68 28 Neighborhood 2 Dunlora Park Ph. 1 31 14 17 Neighborhood 7 Kenridge 65 57 8 Dunlora Park Ph. 2 14 0 14 Out of Bounds 56 51 5 Free State Run 28 26 2 White Gables 76 30 46 Stonewater 34 33 1 Crozet Blue Ridge Co-housing 26 7 19 Neighborhood 5 Brookdale 96 0 96 Foothills Daily 180 12 168 Wintergreen Farm Ph. 1 45 37 8 Old Trail Village 2,200 384 1,816 Wintergreen Farm Ph. 2A 17 16 1 Wickham Pond I 107 105 2 Wintergreen Farm Ph. 2B 10 7 3 Wickham Pond II 106 56 50 Wintergreen Farm Ph. 3 13 9 4 Hollymead Brookhill 1,550 0 1,550 Crozet Sparrow Hill 35 7 28 Cedar Hill Mobile Home Park 32 0 32 Chesterfield Landing 25 20 5 Hollymead Town Center Area A2 1,222 0 1,222 Chesterfield Landing II 18 11 7 Hollymead Town Center Area C 120 82 38 Creekside 3, P 3D 6 4 2 North Pointe 893 0 893 Foothill Crossing Ph. 4 & 5 33 31 2 Willow Glen 234 32 202 St. George Properties 4 1 3 Piney Mountain Briarwood 661 540 121 The Vue 126 0 126 NGIC Residential Expansion 120 0 120 Westlake Hills Ph. 2 27 15 12 Village of Glenmore Livengood 43 29 14 Westlake Hills Ph. 1 47 42 5 Rivanna Glenmore Leake 110 31 79 Westlake Hills Ph. 3 17 1 16 Rivanna Village 400 18 382 Westlake Hills Ph. 4 46 1 45 1 Maximum residential units allowed under approved Zoning Map Amendment or Special Use Permit. 1 Maximum residential units allowed under approved final site plan or subdivision plat. 2 Units within approved project boundaries issued a certificate of occupancy as of July 1, 2019. 2 Units within approved project boundaries issued a certificate of occupancy as of July 1, 2019. 40 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 41 Instructions – ArcGIS Instructions - R The first step in the capacity analysis procedure is to The second step in the capacity analysis procedure is to Appendix C: Model Documentation locate either on ArcMap or ArcCatalog the tool titled open the PopulationComparisons.Rmd file in RStudio. Capacity Analysis Model. This model is located in the This file is located in the following folder: Each of the three types assumes that all land queried following toolbox: Purpose out based on the model’s assumptions will be cob_planning \ GIS-USERS \ NeighborhoodPlanning \ The intention of this document is to explain the developed, and that levels of development (measured cob_planning \ GIS-USERS \ NeighborhoodPlanning \ Capacity Capacity Analysis \ 2019 \ RComponent methodology, assumptions, benefits and limitations of by multipliers, discussed below) correspond either to Analysis \ 2019 \ CapacityAnalysis2019.gdb \ CapacityAnalysis the new model for assessing capacity analysis in the the land’s zoning or land use, in addition to the land’s Above the code should be a Run Document button. Comprehensive Plan Areas of Albemarle County. corresponding Development Area. It is in regard to the By clicking on this, an HTML page should appear that latter assumption that the type of capacity analysis resembles Figure 3, listing instructions. One may Capacity analysis refers to the assessment of potential chosen will affect the R model. choose to open this in their browser by clicking on the future land supply (or capacity) for industrial, “Open in Browser” button located at the top of this commercial and residential use. This information The multipliers used in this model are values page. may be used for many purposes, most importantly representing expected development (e.g., the number in comparing potential land supply to expected land of dwelling units) per square acreage. These are demand based on population growth and economic multiplied by each selected piece of land’s acreage development projections. to derive an estimated number of units for each parcel. For example, 1 acre of land that is zoned as R1 The primary benefits of automating this process are Residential is expected to yield between 0.97 and 1.45 that it lowers the chance of human error and allows dwelling units. The overall expected land supply comes for the analysis to be performed on a more regular from aggregating these values, as illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 2. user-interface for Capacity Analysis Model in ArcMap. basis than the current two year timeframe set out in Strategy 4b of the Development Areas Chapter of the Clicking on this tool should open a GUI that resembles Comprehensive Plan. Figure 2. It is recommended that the user inspect each parameter input and read its description in order to understand the relevance of each in the model as a Figure 3. user-interface for instructions Background whole. The new ArcGIS/R methodology has two obvious In most instances, the user will only have to alter two of The page contains four tabs: Instructions, Assumptions, components: the ArcGIS component, which will select these fields:Model Type and Output Location. Model Single, and Iterative. The Instructions page is the default the appropriate land, and the R component, which will Figure 1. graphical explanation of how the zoning Type corresponds to which type of capacity analysis is page and provides basic instructions for how to use the produce estimates for new development based on this capacity analysis estimates future housing capacity. to be performed. page. The Assumptions tab lists the assumptions made land. Remembering this distinction will help in clarifying in the R component of the model, which may be altered how the methodology as a whole works. The Iterative Capacity Analysis Model does not by the user (these assumptions are explained in the require the user to input a Model Type, because it There are three different type of capacity analysis that model components section of this paper). The Single will automatically produce all three model types in may be performed on land in the county’s Development and Iterative tabs correspond to which of the ArcGIS the same Output Location file (with an approximate Areas, corresponding to the three criteria upon which methods were chosen, with the Single tab allowing runtime of 104 minutes). land is assumed to develop: the user to run the model on one Shapefile and the Once the appropriate Model Type and Output Location Iterative tab allowing the user to run the model on 1. Comprehensive Plan (Land Use) parameters have been inputted, pressing OK will run three Shapefiles. 2. Current Zoning (Gross Density) the model. Allow around 30 minutes for the model to Like with the ArcGIS model, the user should input the run to completion (run time is discussed in the Model output location for the final capacity analysis data 3. Current Zoning (Net Density) Components and Conclusion chapters), at which point as well (Caution: R requires that paths use forward- the output Shapefile(s) should be visible in the specified slash separators, whereas Windows uses back-slash The type of capacity analysis chosen will affect the output location. separators, which will mean that the outputted data ArcGIS component and the R component differently. from R will show up in the user’s R working directory if In the ArcGIS component, it will determine what land is The attribute table of this Shapefile will include the not inputted correctly). selected (e.g., by excluding land with an Airport District following fields (columns): FID, Shape, ZONING, land use, or a Planned Unit Development zoning). The ParcelID, GPIN, PIN_SHORT, Owner, LotSize, PropName, In the “Input Shapefile:” textbox, type in the path to the difference between Net Zoning and Gross Zoning is LandValue, LandUseValue, ImprovementsValue, .shp file produced by theCapacity Analysis Model that environmental constraints are removed under Net TotalValue, Constraint, Area (referring to (normally titled Gross.shp, Net.shp, or LandUse.shp)1. Zoning capacity analysis and left in for Gross Zoning Comprehensive Plan area), LandUse, Type, Shape_ Finally, select from the “Projection:” dropdown list the capacity analysis. Thus, the ArcGIS component will Length, Shape_Area. The Type field indicates whether corresponding capacity analysis type to be performed consider constrained land differently depending on the the land has been deemed as potentially developable on the Shapefile. Allow for the analysis to run and the type of capacity analysis chosen (Net Zoning and Gross vacant land, infill for residential or industrial land, or page should eventually resemble Figure 4. Zoning are treated in exactly the same way in the R manually added land. These distinctions are explained component, however). in the Model Components section of this paper.

42 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 43 Now with a broad collection of land across the county, The land has now been almost completely stripped of Model Components – ArcGIS the next step further queries out land in order to find undevelopable land (with two exceptions to be run at The model used to query out possible land for areas that could be classified as one of three types the end). The next step is to make manually altered development was constructed using Model Builder, (listed in the Type column): adjustments to the model by selecting parcels of land to be added or removed that had not been done correctly an ArcGIS platform for linking tools and creating 1. Vacant land automated processes. Figure 5 shows the layout of the by the model, based on exceptional circumstances or Capacity Analysis Model. 2. Single-Family Residential (SFR) infill, or qualitative analysis.

The model first applies the Union tool to multiple 3. Commercial/Industrial (CI) redevelopment To have parcels manually added or removed, the feature classes in order to find, for each parcel, which Parcel Modifications table, again located in the same As mentioned in the conclusion section of this portions have certain zoning designations, land use geodatabase as the model, is used. The three columns document, queries are run in tables and then joined designations, environmental constraints, and parcel used in the model are GPIN, Action and Note, with the to Shapefiles afterwards in order to reduce overall attributes. The model first creates a single feature Note column being used to indicate that the parcel has runtime. This is the approach taken to find Vacant, SFR class that represents all environmental constraints in been modified through other means (by being added infill and CI redevelopment land. From thegisweb.dbo. 3 the county in a single column. Another similar union or removed at another step in the process ). The GPIN VISION_summary_info table, land is queried out based is performed to create a feature class storing all land column indicates the GPIN of the parcel and the Action on the following SQL expressions: uses for the Development Areas. With these two initial column lists either “add” or “remove”. If a row has unions executed, a final union brings together all data 1. Vacant land “remove” as its Action field value, the GPIN of that row that will be included in the final Shapefile (e.g., Owner, is matched to the GPIN of the parcels feature class and ParcelLevelUseCode IN (200, 250,601,603) OR is erased from the Shapefile of developable land. If a LandValue, CPA, etc.). ((ParcelLevelUseCode IN (210, 220) OR StateCode IN (‘4A’,’4B’)) row has “add” as its Action field value, it is matched to AND ImprovementsValue < 25000) To improve the runtime, certain assumptions are the parcels feature class and modified to include all of made so that this union can take in the least amount 2. Single-Family Residential (SFR) infill the columns included in the developable land Shapefile of information needed. To do this, land is initially through the Union tool (with a much lower run time GPIN NOT IN (SELECT GPIN FROM VacantLand) AND removed if it is in non-Development Areas, and fields ParcelLevelUseCode IN (210, 220) AND than the previous Unions tools). In the Type column, are dissolved so that the union does not consider ImprovementsValue > 25,000 these “add” parcels are given the value “Manually Figure 4. results of the Single page. unnecessary information. The most presumptive query Added”. Once the “add” parcels are properly formatted, at this point focuses on removing land that is assumed 3. Commercial/Industrial (CI) redevelopment they are added to the developable land Shapefile At this point, the user can choose to export the data as to not develop based on its taxation status. The query through the Merge tool. a table or as a Shapefile, including columns showing statement used for this (which requires an initial join GPIN NOT IN (SELECT GPIN FROM VacantLand) AND high and low estimates of residential units. The raw with tax information) is: LandValue > 0 AND StateCode IN (‘4A’, ‘4B’) The final two steps referenced earlier are applied to data table includes more data on non-residential units this merged Shapefile. They are both uses of the Erase as well, which may be joined with the Shapefile in order Once the Grid Parcel Identification Number (GPINs) TaxType = 4 OR (StateCode = 79 AND TaxType = 1) OR tool used to remove two kinds of land that are not to be visualize expected Warehousing, Industrial land, Open associated with these queries have been found, they (StateCode IN (71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78)) OR TaxType = 5 included. The two land types are: Space, etc. are joined to the large Shapefile already created. Thus, in the attribute table of this Shapefile, three In addition to the chart and table located at the bottom This SQL expression is used to remove regulated utility 1. Named/Platted Subdivisions – These of the page, the user can view the expected residential companies, regional government buildings, religious columns have been added indicating whether the land are developments (included in the Shapefile units in the generated maps (one representing the Low buildings, and other organizations that are not likely to is classified as Vacant, SFR infill, CI redevelopment, or LegacyDevelopments) that are already built out and expected count, the other representing the High expect- be developed/redeveloped. none of the three. The model removes all land that is will not be redeveloped due to the presence of owners’ ed count). Hovering the cursor over a parcel will show not one of these three types. associations and CC&R. the expected number of dwelling units produced there. The next few tools in the model rely on the Model Type 2. Development Pipeline – This is land that is already To make any alterations to the final results (e.g., re- input parameter2. The model will select the appropriate approved for new projects and will be counted in the moving certain parcels), it is recommended that this be row from the ModelExpressions table (located in the Comprehensive Plan separately. A query is applied to done in ArcMap using the downloaded Shapefile. same geodatabase as the model itself) corresponding this layer before being erased: to which of the three capacity analysis methodologies are inputted, and extract the following information: the use <> ‘Rural’ AND pipeline IN (‘Parent’, ‘Approved’, ‘Under name of the capacity analysis method, for the name of Construction’, ‘Built’) the final Shapefile; the types ofland use or zoning to be removed; and the types of environmental constraints to be removed. In addition, for technical reasons this step in the model is also used as a precondition for earlier processes in order to jumpstart the model into removing joins and starting fresh every time a new capacity analysis methodology is inputted.

Figure 5. Model Builder layout of the ArcGIS model.

44 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 45 Model Components – R The Check column verifies the following assumptions (returning “False” if any criteria is not met, and “True” The ArcGIS model saves the Shapefile as:%Output Location%\%ModelType%.shp, which uses inline variables to otherwise). These assumptions are listed on the save the file in the correct location and with the same name as the capacity analysis methodology used. This file is Assumptions tab of the R interface, shown in Figure 5, then used in R as the “Input Shapefile”. Once the file has been read in R, the High and Low values are added using a giving the user the option to alter any of the following loop that goes through each row in the Shapefile. values as well as the ability to download a .txt file listing the assumptions in order to keep this information along The script first verifies that the CPA and land use or zoning are valid and, based on these two variables, selects from with the exported Shapefiles. either Densities or DensitiesZoning (both tables located in the same folder as the Rmd file) seven rows associated with these two values4. The seven rows correspond to seven kinds of land classification – Residential, Retail/Service, 1. That for SFR infill land, the amount of land is in Office, R&D/Flex, Industrial, Warehousing & Dist., and Open Space – along with columns indicating the percentage excess of . of land that will be covered by each of these seven classifications, as well as their multipliers. For example, if the selected row from the Shapefile has “Pantops” as its CPA and “Commercial Mixed Use” as its land use, the seven This assumption verifies that there is an adequate rows selected from the table of densities are shown in Table 1. amount of land by checking that the more conservative estimate of growth will only occur with at least 2.5 acres Row Subarea Use Type Land Use Mix Low High Unit of land available. Figure 5. Assumptions page. 92 Pantops Residential Commercial Mixed Use 0.333 6.01 34 du/ac 2. That the TotalValue ( = LandValue + LandU- 93 Pantops Retail/Service Commercial Mixed Use 0.250 5000 13000 GFA/ac seValue + ImprovementsValue) associated with all CI redevelopment land is less than the follow- Conclusion – Benefits 94 Pantops Office Commercial Mixed Use 0.167 2000 15000 GFA/ac ing amounts depending on CPA: Faster Computation Speed, Allowing for More 95 Pantops R&D/Flex Commercial Mixed Use 0.100 5000 15000 GFA/ac • Northern Urban Neighborhoods: $20/sf Frequent Analysis 96 Pantops Industrial Commercial Mixed Use 0.050 2500 12500 GFA/ac • Hollymead/Piney Mountain: $15/sf By automating the processes involved in 97 Pantops Warehousing & Dist. Commercial Mixed Use 0.0500000 1000 12500 GFA/ac • Pantops: $15/sf capacity analysis through ArcGIS Model Builder and R, • Southern Urban Neighborhoods : $12/sf 98 Pantops Open Space Commercial Mixed Use 0.0500000 0.00 0 % the values produced will no longer require aggregating • Western Urban Neighborhoods : $12/sf data in Excel and calculated on a case-by-case basis. The Table 1. The multipliers associated with Commercial Mixed Use land in Pantops, from the Densities table. • Crozet: $13/sf process can be run in the background and completed in This assumption verifies that the strike price will be a relatively short amount of time. In this example, the land in this row is assumed to become 33.3% residential, 25% retail/service, etc., and for each of affordable enough for development. 5 these seven use types, a multiplier is included for the dwelling units per acre or ground floor area (GFA) per acre. Greater Objectivity and Transparency in the Process

Corresponding to each row in the Shapefile, the new table will contain the following data: 3. That the Low value for CI redevelopment land is The underlying assumptions in making ID Area Zoning …1 Mix Low High Unit Type Check at least 3. projections of future development are accessible, 1 Crozet C1 Commercial … 0.2207 3 4 du/ac Vacant True This assumption verifies that the land has enough and figures that had traditionally been presented in potential for development to be pursued. aggregated and tabulated forms may now be more 1 Crozet C1 Commercial … 0.3679 1839 4782 GFA/ac Vacant True easily shared in more engaging and micro-level formats. 1 Crozet C1 Commercial … 0.3679 735 5518 GFA/ac Vacant True 4. That the total area for CI redevelopment land is Additionally, the risk of human error is reduced by at least 0.249 acres. 1 Crozet C1 Commercial … 0.2943 1471 4414 GFA/ac Vacant True requiring little human input in the process. 1 Crozet C1 Commercial … 0.1472 367 1839 GFA/ac Vacant True This assumption verifies that the land is large enough Allows for assumptions to be tested to have potential for redevelopment.The following 1 Crozet C1 Commercial … 0.0736 73 919 GFA/ac Vacant True assumption is also used at this point in the R script, By accelerating the speed with which 1 Crozet C1 Commercial … 0 0 % Vacant True but does not factor into the value of the Check column projections are made, planners and others can alter the Table 2. A sample extract from the final table in the R code. directly: assumptions made in predicting development and see 1 The columns not displayed here are simply repeated information from the table on the previous page. the effects of such decisions. 5. For SFR infill land, the number of dwelling units In this example, the land from the Shapefile had “Crozet” as its CPA and is zoned as “C1 Commercial”. The Mix built will be equal to the amount of residential column indicates how many acres are designated for each use type (the same seven types shown in Table 1) and land multiplied by the multipliers ( minus 1. the Low and High columns represent the product of the value in the Mix column and the multiplier values from the This assumption verifies that the existing dwelling unit density tables, rounded down. The units of these values and the type of land is stores in order to perform analytics on the land is not counted. on the data afterwards. Finally, the Check column is added to perform a final query on the data to further address assumptions over the kind of land that will develop. Finally, the R script subsets the data in this final table by only keeping rows that have a “True” check value. To produce the final Shapefile that may be downloaded from the R interface, the residential Low and High values from this table are right-joined to the Shapefile that was produced by the ArcGIS model. This new Shapefile, now including the high and low estimates for expected dwelling units, may then be downloaded in the R interface, along with a table of summary statistics at the CPA level.

46 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 47

Table 2. A sample extract from the final table in the R code. twenty percent of total run time. The use of Union Conclusion – Limitations in these instances follows the methodology of the The model requires working within ArcGIS and R, DevelopmentConstraints.py file used for Planning and rather than a single environment. Economic Development requests, and improvements Appendix D: Density & Mix Tables to the runtime of these tools (including dissolving the Through converting the entire model to a Python script, inputs) should be a high concern. Four tools alone Subarea Comprehensive Plan Land Use Designation Mix Low High Unit the two components may be integrated. Relevant account for over forty percent of total run time, as Crozet Downtown 0.25 6.01 36 du/ac Python code for the R component is included in the highlighted in Figure 6. capacity analysis folder, and the current ArcGIS model Crozet Light Industrial 0 0 0 du/ac may be exported as a Python script in the ArcGIS Model Crozet Mixed Use 0.5 6.01 18 du/ac Builder environment. Endnotes Crozet Neighborhood Density Residential 0.98 3 6 du/ac The reason this avenue was not pursued 1 In the case of the Iterative Capacity Analysis Model, Crozet Neighborhood Density Residential - Low 1 0 2 du/ac initially is because of problems with Pandas and input the path to the folder containing all three .shp files. other packages not working in ArcGIS at the time of 2 For the Iterative Capacity Analysis Model, the model Crozet Urban Density Residential 0.9 6.01 12 du/ac the model’s creation. This avenue should be pursued runs through the three different types automatically. Hollymead/Piney Mountain Commercial Mixed Use 0.333 6.01 34 du/ac once relevant Python updates have been made to the 3 For example, parcels may be added to the Lega- cyDevelopments layer discussed later. Hollymead/Piney Mountain Heavy Industrial 0 0 0 du/ac county’s GIS system. Potential concerns that should be 4 In the case of the zoning densities, the CPA does not Hollymead/Piney Mountain Light Industrial 0 0 0 du/ac considered before pursuing this include the lack of a factor in the multiplier values – only the zoning is relevant. Hollymead/Piney Mountain Neighborhood Density Residential 0.98 3 6 du/ac clear user-interface, the increased complexity making 5 This multiplier corresponds to how many square feet errors harder to trace, and an increased difficulty in per acre will be covered by buildings intended for use types. Hollymead/Piney Mountain P29 Neighborhood Service Center 0.5 3 20 du/ac altering the model in the future. Hollymead/Piney Mountain Office / R&D / Flex / Light Industrial 0.1 6.01 34 du/ac The current total runtime is around one hour, Hollymead/Piney Mountain P29 Urban Mixed Use (not in Centers) & Community Center 0.5 6.01 34 du/ac making comparisons between different criteria Hollymead/Piney Mountain P29 Destination Center & Uptown Center 0.4 6.01 50 du/ac difficult to perform in a quick manner. Hollymead/Piney Mountain Urban Density Residential 0.9 6.01 34 du/ac Many techniques were employed throughout building Northern Urban Nhoods Commercial Mixed Use 0.333 6.01 34 du/ac the model to ensure that runtime was being minimized, Northern Urban Nhoods Neighborhood Density Residential 0.98 3 6 du/ac such as evaluating SQL statements on tables rather Northern Urban Nhoods P29 Neighborhood Service Center 0.5 3 20 du/ac than feature classes, but many tools appeared Northern Urban Nhoods Office / R&D / Flex / Light Industrial 0.1 6.01 34 du/ac unavoidably lengthy. The Python script “Model Speed Translator”, located in the Capacity Analysis folder, may Northern Urban Nhoods P29 Urban Mixed Use (not in Centers) & Community Center 0.5 6.01 34 du/ac be used to assess the speed of each tool in the ArcGIS Northern Urban Nhoods Regional Center (Rio29 Small Area Plan) 0.4 20 60 du/ac model, with current results presented in Figure 6. Northern Urban Nhoods Urban Density Residential 0.9 6.01 34 du/ac

This has been used as a guideline for finding possible Pantops Commercial Mixed Use 0.333 6.01 34 du/ac areas of improvement in the model as a whole. The Pantops Neighborhood Density Residential 0.98 3 6 du/ac use of Union in particular can be very time consuming, Pantops Office / R&D / Flex / Light Industrial 0.1 6.01 34 du/ac with the two main uses of Union accounting for over Pantops Urban Center (Community Mixed Use) 0.4 6.01 50 du/ac Pantops Urban Density Residential 0.9 6.01 34 du/ac Southern Urban Nhoods Light Industrial 0 0 0 du/ac Southern Urban Nhoods Neighborhood Density Residential 0.98 3 6 du/ac Southern Urban Nhoods Office / R&D / Flex / Light Industrial 0.1 6.01 34 du/ac Figure 6. Tool runtime in Southern Urban Nhoods Community Mixed Use 0.5 6.01 34 du/ac ArcGIS Model. Southern Urban Nhoods Regional Mixed Use 0.25 6.01 34 du/ac Southern Urban Nhoods Urban Density Residential 0.9 6.01 34 du/ac Village of Rivanna Neighborhood Density Residential 0.98 3 3 du/ac Village of Rivanna Neighborhood Density Residential - Low 1 1 2 du/ac Western Urban Nhoods Neighborhood Density Residential 0.98 3 6 du/ac Western Urban Nhoods Neighborhood Mixed Use 0.5 6.01 18 du/ac Western Urban Nhoods Office / R&D / Flex / Light Industrial 0.1 6.01 34 du/ac Western Urban Nhoods Community Mixed Use 0.5 6.01 34 du/ac Western Urban Nhoods Urban Density Residential 0.9 6.01 34 du/ac

48 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT NOVEMBER 12, 2019 | 49 Density & Mix Tables (continued - Zoning)

Zoning Mix Low High Unit R15 Residential 1 15 20 du/ac R10 Residential 1 10 15 du/ac R6 Residential 1 6 9 du/ac R4 Residential 1 4 6 du/ac R2 Residential 1 2 3 du/ac R1 Residential 1 0.97 1.45 du/ac Downtown Crozet District 0.25 18 36 du/ac Planned District Mixed 0.15 15 20 du/ac Commercial Planned District Shopping Center 0 0 0 du/ac Highway Commercial 0.1 15 20 du/ac Commercial Office 0.15 15 20 du/ac C1 Commercial 0.15 15 20 du/ac Heavy Industrial 0 0 0 du/ac Light Industrial 0 0 0 du/ac Rural Areas N/A manually manually du calculated calculated

50 | ALBEMARLE COUNTY GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT