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IMPACT of FINANCIAL INNOVATION on the FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE of the TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES a Thesis Presented To

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IMPACT of FINANCIAL INNOVATION on the FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE of the TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES a Thesis Presented To Running head: FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES IMPACT OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION ON THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of ISM University of Management and Economics in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Financial Economics by Luka Juodelytė May 2018 FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES 2 Juodelytė, L., Impact of Financial Innovation on the Financial Performance of the Traditional Financial Intermediaries. [Manuscript]: Master thesis: Financial Economics. Vilnius, ISM University of Management and Economics, 2018. Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to examine the impact of digital bank deposit, asset and loan growth on selected traditional bank performance measures. Review of previous literature allows to verify an existing gap in the literature for such research. Analysis of previously performed research on this topic assists in determining traditional bank performance measures which can be affected by changes in digital bank factors – return on assets, return on equity, net interest margin, net non-interest margin, loans to assets and liabilities to equity. In order to estimate whether a causal relationship between digital bank measures and traditional bank performance exists, Granger causality method is selected as the main empirical model. In addition, to determine the direction and strength of said relationship, OLS regressions are performed. Research results lead to the conclusion that digital bank deposit and loan growth have a causal relationship to traditional bank performance ratios. Deposit growth has a negative impact on traditional bank performance ratios and loan growth shows both positive and negative impact on different ratios. This research demonstrates some of the challenges that traditional banks are facing in the age of innovation. As deposit and loan growth are perceived as proxies to customer growth, focus areas identified for traditional banks to safeguard profit and market share are customer attraction and preservation. As the research has some limitations, such as excluded regulatory effects and using growth data instead of level data, future research is recommended to include regulatory changes and test level data instead or in addition to growth data. (20 487). Keywords: financial innovation, digital banks, traditional financial intermediaries, Granger causality. FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES 3 Table of Contents List of tables ........................................................................................................................ 5 List of figures ...................................................................................................................... 6 Glossary .............................................................................................................................. 7 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 8 Literature review ............................................................................................................... 13 Concept of innovation ................................................................................................... 14 Innovation and economic performance ..................................................................... 16 Innovation and the financial sector ........................................................................... 17 Concept of financial innovation .................................................................................... 18 Financial innovation research review ........................................................................... 21 New products ............................................................................................................ 21 New processes ........................................................................................................... 27 New organizational form .......................................................................................... 31 Summary of literature review ....................................................................................... 36 Research methodology ...................................................................................................... 39 Performance measures .................................................................................................. 39 Digital bank measures ................................................................................................... 44 Research instrument selection....................................................................................... 47 Granger causality ...................................................................................................... 47 FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES 4 Ordinary least squares regression ............................................................................. 50 Data selection ................................................................................................................ 51 Methods for data testing................................................................................................ 54 Possible limitations of the research ............................................................................... 56 Empirical research results and discussion......................................................................... 60 Descriptive statistics ..................................................................................................... 60 Normality tests .............................................................................................................. 61 Granger causality .......................................................................................................... 64 Ordinary least squares regression analysis ................................................................... 66 Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 69 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 77 References ......................................................................................................................... 80 Appendices ........................................................................................................................ 94 FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES 5 List of tables Table 1. Performance measures of banking in literature. ....................................................... 41 Table 2. Econometric hypotheses ........................................................................................... 48 Table 3. Traditional banks by asset size .................................................................................. 52 Table 4. Digital banks by asset size ........................................................................................ 53 Table 5. Summary statistics of the un-adjusted data ............................................................... 60 Table 6. Summary of Granger test results............................................................................... 64 Table 7. Summarized results of OLS analysis ........................................................................ 67 Table 8. Summary of research results ..................................................................................... 69 FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES 6 List of figures Figure 1. Noninterest and net income as a % of total operating income in U.S. commercial banking, 1970–2003. ..................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 2. Correlation matrix of exogenous variables ............................................................... 63 FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES 7 Glossary ROA Return on Assets ROE Return on Equity NIM Net Interest Margin NNIM Net Non-Interest Margin ECB European Central Bank ATM Automated Teller Machine ACH Automated Clearinghouse OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development NACHA National Automated Clearinghouse Association ADF Augmented Dickey-Fuller test KPSS Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test OLS Ordinary least squares model NFA New Financial Architecture MBS Mortgage Backed Security ABS Asset Backed Security AIC Akaike Information Criterion BIC Schwarz-Bayesian Information Criterion HQC Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion FINANCIAL INNOVATION IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES 8 Introduction We are living in times of innovation and development and witnessing constant change marked by the emergence of new business models in various industries. Innovation is changing the face of business and improving its conditions by creating value for the shareholders. There’s no arguing that innovation is one of the most important variables in economic growth. Solow (1956) states that economic development, in the long run, is impossible without innovation and innovation is the only variable which impacts growth. Even though Solow discusses technological innovation, rather than financial, Blach (2011) argues that without financial innovation technological
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