influence security, and the implications for the implications and security, influence resources and natural change climate which through mechanisms the outlining by this We do resources. natural affects change climate in which ways the account into taking also sense, broadest in the security climate to in relation military of the role the discuss we paper Inthis and Somalia. Africa West Chad, Lake for example and countries, regions specific in of conflict cause a root as change climate recognised has Council Security UN the Inaddition, multiplier’. ‘threat aso-called as institutions many other and UN EU, the the by recognised is change Climate attention. increasing receiving is change of climate dimension security The Introduction with those security issues. security those with deal to in place put be could that measures of anumber describe We then military. the operational effectiveness while leading the way towards resource-efficient societies. resource-efficient towards way the leading while effectiveness operational increase would that in away stress resource and natural change of climate dimensions security the address could military the how on recommendations with conclude authors The countries. various from of defence ministries by planned or undertaken change climate address to of measures overview abrief by followed is This security. to related are resources and natural change climate in which of ways examples the at held discussion and apanel literature documents, policy on Based activities. their operate and plan they way for the have implications degradation resource and natural change climate of dimensions security the that recognise increasingly organisations Military for the Military for the ImplicationsResources: Natural of Degradation and Change Climate 2019 JULY Planetary Security Conference Security Planetary (PSC) 2019, this paper first highlights various various highlights 2019, first paper this (PSC) in the Pacific region. Pacific in the and Australia Zealand New to applies same The similar facing threats. globe the across territory has France while Maarten), (St Caribbean in the Irma Hurricane with this experienced also has Netherlands The Africa. in southern disasters worst of the one as named been has and Malawi, Zimbabwe of Mozambique, parts large devastated recently which Idai, Cyclone livelihoods. and property of life, loss massive to leading and hurricanes, surges storm floods, as such events weather extreme change-related climate numerous In 2018 were there alone, extreme weather events severity and frequency ofIncreased Mechanisms
Maartje van Reedt Dortland, Dominique Noome, Fred Kruidbos, Sander Agterhuis Policy Brief Clingendael Policy Brief
Sea level rise and other changes in only floods but also water scarcity for local the landscape populations. Ten percent of the world’s population live in low-lying areas less than ten metres above In a recent report by the Australian Senate sea level. Many of these areas are at risk Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence of flooding. Based on a global mean sea and Trade References,3 it was noted that level rise of 25-123cm by 2100, 0.2 to 4.6 ‘Australia’s naval assets may take on a percent of the global population is expected larger maritime security role, including to experience flooding events annually. managing activities in the Southern Ocean Expected annual losses as a consequence and Antarctica such as illegal fishing “due to of these events are 0.3-9.3 percent of global climate change-induced fisheries migration”.’ GDP.1 Clearly, this has serious implications for This links into a potential intensification of low-lying countries, such as The Netherlands conflicts in the South China Sea because and Bangladesh. Depending on the of maritime disputes about diminishing location, these include adaptation costs, resources.4 soil salinisation and displacement of the population. Water from melting glaciers Natural resources and ecosystems can can also create problems for people living also sustain and prolong a conflict. In downstream. The glaciers of the Himalayas, Afghanistan, the Taliban used opium poppy predicted to have melted by two-thirds by to finance its activities. Because diseases 2100 in a ‘business as usual’ scenario, can and pest insects were severely affecting lead to flooding of glacial lakes and major other crops, farmers did not have a financially rivers such as the Ganges and Indus.2 viable alternative to growing poppy. But with the help from the International Changed availability of natural Security Assistance Force (ISAF) on pest resources management, farmers in the district of Chora The growing world population is restored their almond (a cash crop) orchards. exerting more and more pressure on This helped them regain resilience and natural resources. In some instances, made them less susceptible to the Taliban. climate change exacerbates this situation However, a warmer climate stimulates rapid by rendering ecosystems less resilient, pest development5,6 and can alter the range thus reducing their ability to recover from of pests and diseases, damaging crops that degradation caused by human activity. previously would not have been affected by Coupled with changing weather patterns such infestations or outbreaks.7 and temperatures, which by themselves can diminish natural resources, this leads to changes in availability of natural resources such as water, fertile soil, timber, etc. 3 Commonwealth of Australia Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee (2018) Implications of climate change for Australia’s national security For example, the abovementioned Himalayan (accessed 22-05-2019). glaciers are critical sources of water for 4 https://www.sbs.com.au/news/exclusive-climate- about 250 million people who live in the change-warning-for-australia-s-military (accessed mountains. Another 1.65 billion people living 29-03-2019). in the valleys below are also dependent 5 Kocmánková et al. (2009) ‘Impact of Climate on it. Rising temperatures will cause not Change on the Occurrence and Activity of Harmful Organisms’, Plant Protect. Sci. Vol. 45, 2009, Special Issue: S48–S52. 6 Andrew, N.A. and Hill, S.J. (2017) ‘Effects of climate 1 Hinkel, J. et al. (2013) ‘Coastal flood damage and change on insect pest management’, in: Coll, M. adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise’, and Wajnberg E., Environmental Pest Management: PNAS 4 March 2014, 111 (9) 3292-3297. Challenges for Agronomists, Ecologist, Economist 2 P. Wester, Mishra, A., Mukherji, A. and Shrestha, and Policymakers, 2017. Wiley and Sons Ltd. A.B. (eds) (2019) The Hindu Kush Himalaya Chapter 9, pp. 197-223. Assessment — Mountains, Climate Change, 7 Doosti, A.A. and Sherzad, M.H. (2015) Climate Sustainability and People, Springer Nature change and governance in Afghanistan. The National Switzerland AG, Cham. Environmental Protection Agency, NEPA.
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Conflicts can also (unintentionally) harm the Implications of climate change natural environment, through destruction, for the military pollution and chemical tactics – for example, scorched earth tactics, over-utilisation and Military leaders are increasingly recognising fragmentation, possibly resulting in socio- the effect of climate change on international ecological changes.8,9 At the same time, security. ‘Climate change has a security conflicts can have positive impacts on the dimension,’ stated the Chief of Defence of environment – for example, if people are the Netherlands, General Tom Middendorp kept out of an area nature can thrive, or (ret.) in the 2016 and 2019 Planetary Security if armed forces actively manage land and Conferences. The role of the military in water, natural resources might be restored.10 relation to climate security needs to be A prime example is the Korean Demilitarized analysed in the context of the armed forces’ Zone, which has been left alone since core functions. Taking the core tasks of 1953 and now hosts a large number of the armed forces of The Netherlands as a endangered species.11 benchmark, these include: 1) protecting national territory, and that of allies, against Shift in geopolitical dynamics hostilities; 2) improving (international) law Climate change is leading to the creation and order and stability; and 3) supporting of new sea routes through Arctic areas, civil authorities in their efforts to react to which results in new geopolitical interests crises and disasters. All the various aspects in minerals, fishing and gas resources, with of climate change show that the core tasks of accompanying tensions. For Scandinavian the military are all directly affected. Climate countries and Russia, but also for allied change has implications for defence policy NATO countries, the melting ice creates regarding planning and procurement, and new vulnerabilities. The US Department of on the way operations are executed. Figure 1 Defense recently announced that Arctic outlines the implications of climate change sea ice is receding by about 13 percent per for military organisations, based on the four decade, and announced its strategy to step mechanisms explained above. up its cold-weather expertise in order to defend ‘America’s first line of defence’.12 Responding to increased demands for humanitarian assistance and In addition, in the quest to mitigate climate disaster response change, many countries agreed to the In the event of floods, cyclones or similar 2018 Paris climate agreement. This has extreme weather events, the military is accelerated an already ongoing energy often called upon to fulfil its role in crisis transition from fossil fuels to renewables, and disaster response. The military has and shifted power and resource dynamics unique capabilities to very quickly deploy globally, notably for oil-producing countries. the necessary equipment and personnel. However, the ministries of defence and armed forces of several countries recognise13 that they lack the means of repeating these exercises more frequently than at present, let alone in different locations at the same 8 https://www.unhcr.org/protection/environment/ time. Climate predictions show, however, 3b039f3c4/refugees-environment.html that demand for humanitarian assistance 9 Machlis, G.E. and Hanson, T. (2008) ‘Warfare and disaster response (HADR) is likely to Ecology’, Bioscience. Vol 58-8, pp. 729-736. increase in the future, with armed forces 10 Wit, P. and Noome, D.A. (2016) Winning the having to assist in national, overseas and environment. The ecosystem approach and its international territories. For example, New value for military operations, IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management, Gland, Switzerland. 11 http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/ east/08/22/korea.bio.dmz/ 12 https://www.defensenews.com/news/your- 13 Discussed during the Planetary Security military/2019/05/06/northcom-arctic-now- Conference 2019 with military representatives from americas-first-line-of-defense/ New Zealand, France, Finland and The Netherlands.
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Figure 1 Example of a Climate & Security Capability Game Card
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cre e i i er e co flic eo r ic i r io o er re o rce e e re of foc
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HADR: humanitarian assistance and disaster response
Zealand indicates a shift in the location of Being prepared for concurrent events is fisheries to rougher territorial waters, as increasingly important and requires decisions climate change leads fish stocks to move, on policies and planning from ministries of resulting in a rise in demand for search and defence about deployment frequencies, level rescue operations.14 The Indian Ministry of preparedness, and resource allocation. of Defence (MoD) recognises that ‘Armed For example, increasing numbers of HADR Forces will have to play a major role in missions could magnify the need for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief engineering capabilities and liaison staff. (HADR), civilian support, and Aid to Civil Authorities.’15 Impact on military infrastructure As well as weather events, sea level rise ‘The Caribbean opened the eyes of the also has direct implications for military capitals that humanitarian assistance puts organisations. The Netherlands, for example, pressure on the Ministry of Defence,’ the faces direct future threats from climate French representative mentioned during change at national level: sea level rise, the Planetary Security Conference of 2019. extreme weather, and land subsidence
14 Jane Neilson during PSC 2019. 15 Kumar, A. (2017) Seminar report. Impact of climate change on military operations: an appraisal, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, 8.
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increase flood risk. The United Kingdom,16 to displace 30 to 50 million people from that United States17 and Australia18 are set country’s coastal areas by 2050.22 to move their naval bases and low-lying airstrips to higher ground, while France The tasks of the armed forces in migration also recognises the vulnerabilities of its include creating freedom of movement for infrastructure.19 The US has identified refugees and ensuring a secure environment national threats as a result of recurrent by, among other things, collecting flooding, drought, desertification, wildfires intelligence and providing protection. and thawing of the permafrost.20 Heat has Mass migration has implications for armed been demonstrated to affect training days forces at operational level, as ‘associated and can affect mental wellbeing in the US problems of re-location in populous areas and Australia.21 can be difficult, leading to operational consequences’.23 An expressed consequence Migration for defence planning and acquisition is the Many countries perceive migration as a need to have ‘better dual use equipment like security threat, due to increased resource boats, bridges, hospital ships, earth moving competition and its potentially heavy toll equipment, and medical facilities’.24 on national government capacity (HADR activities, for instance). Worldwide, Increased (interstate) conflict over Bangladesh is probably the most notable resource management example of a country where climate change Around the world we are seeing rising can lead to mass migration. The 2013 Global tensions between states due to natural Security Defence Index on Climate Change resource management conflicts when the indicates that sea level rise has the potential use of resources on one side of a border affects the livelihoods of people on the other side. In Egypt, for example, there are long-standing conflicts over Nile River water, and Iraq is facing continuous water shortages due to diminishing flows from the 16 https://www.americansecurityproject.org/british- 25 military-bases-and-climate-change/, accessed Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Also, changing 29-03-2019. precipitation patterns might alter regional 17 Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for access to resources such as drinking water Acquisition and Sustainment 2019. Report on or fodder for livestock. If these natural Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department resources cross national borders, they may of Defense, Department of Defense United States become a source of conflict between these of America, https://assets.documentcloud.org/ countries, which could mean a shifting of documents/5689153/DoD-Final-Climate-Report. focus areas for the military. pdf, accessed 29-03-2019. 18 Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee (2018) Implications of climate change for Australia’s national security. The Senate, Canberra, Australia, http://www.aph.gov.au/senate_fadt, accessed 29-03-2019. 19 Regaud, N., Largemain, M. and Chardon, J. (2018) 22 Holland, A. and Vagg, X. (2013) The Global Security Defence and climate: France is committed, Direction Defence Index on Climate Change: Preliminary générale des relations internationales et de la Results, American Security project, https://www. stratégie, Ministére des Armées, DICoD. americansecurityproject.org/ASP%20Reports/ 20 Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Ref%200121%20-20Global%20Security%20 Acquisition and Sustainment (2019) Report on Defence%20Index%20P-Results.pdf, accessed Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of 29-03-2019. Defense, Department of Defense United States of 23 Kumar, A. (2017) Seminar report. Impact of climate America. change on military operations: an appraisal, Centre 21 Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, 12. Committee (2018) Implications of climate change for 24 Ibid. p. 15. Australia’s national security. The Senate, Canberra, 25 Von Lossow, T. (2018) More than infrastructures: Australia, http://www.aph.gov.au/senate_fadt, water challenges in Iraq. Planetary Security Initiative accessed 29-03-2019. Policy Brief.
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Another potential driver for such a shift all its water supply and the dams provide is energy transformation and its effect on around three-quarters of Iraq’s electricity. geopolitics. Countries producing fossil fuels, Despite the heavy besieging by IS, the Iraqi notably Russia, the Middle East and North forces and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters Africa, are expected to face increasing protected the Haditha Dam successfully, challenges, as in general more than a quarter assisted by US air support.30 Climate change of their GDP is based on fossil fuel exports. and new dams planned for hydropower pose Failure to prepare the economies of these new threats to the flow of water through countries will therefore have a severely the rivers in Iraq and adds to tensions destabilising effect.26 between different groups in Iraqi society. In conclusion, natural resources can have a Increased conflict frequency strategic military function that is expected Research indicates that climate change to gain in importance as natural resources impacts such as rising temperatures and become more scarce. extreme rainfall, and their consequences for natural resources, will lead to more frequent Changing demands on operational conflicts.27 This has implications, including capacity and geographic areas of a greater requirement for effective early focus warning systems, planning capabilities, larger With increased activity in the Arctic region, budget allocations or prioritisation, and, on where melting ice opens up new sea lanes, the part of governments adapted ambition and oil and gas exploration in an area levels. of contested borders, naval vessels and submarines must be able to move through Weaponisation of ice. The extremely hot and dusty environment natural resources of Mali caused a rapid degradation of military equipment. Changing demands Opposing forces that gain control over and geographical focus areas call for extra- natural resources can use them as a weapon. robust military equipment that can withstand For example, the (so-called) Islamic State climatic conditions and changing demands. (IS) used water as a weapon against local populations by ensuring there was too much At operational level, local climatic conditions or too little water, or that water was of a directly affect military operations, for poor quality. In this way IS tried to either example when there is an insufficient supply break resistance and gain support from of water. Logistical lines are vulnerable, and the population, or drive it out.28 It also used therefore many defence ministries strive water in attacking opposing forces, such to become less dependent on fossil fuels, as in April 2014, when it closed the Falluja particularly diesel. Dam floodgates and the retained water flooded large areas upstream, submerging Iraqi government facilities on the banks.29 Measures and activities Similarly, for 18 months IS tried to capture the Haditha Dam in Iraq. Baghdad relies on Despite the apparent implications of climate both the Mosul and Haditha Dam for nearly change, the military in many countries is still contemplating what role it should play. One reason for this is a perceived lack of urgency 26 IRENA (2019) A New World. The Geopolitics of the regarding climate change risk, as it is a non- Energy Transformation. traditional risk and considered to be relevant 27 Hsiang, M., Burke, M. and Miguel, E. (2013) ‘Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict’,Science Vol. 341, Issue 6151. 28 Lossow, T. van (2016) ‘Water as Weapon: IS on the Euphrates and Tigris’, SWP comments, no. 3, pp. 1-8. 30 Lossow, T. van (2016) ‘Water as Weapon: IS on the 29 Ibid. p. 2. Euphrates and Tigris’, SWP comments, no. 3.
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mainly for some future time,31 even though To gain thorough situational awareness environment-related risks account for three and understanding for resolving conflict, of the top five risks by likelihood and four the military needs to understand the root by impact ,according to the World Economic causes of conflict. As Jim Mattis, former Forum.32 general and US Secretary of Defence stated, ‘Climate change is impacting stability in Understanding the potentially areas of the world where our troops are changing root causes of conflict operating today. It is appropriate for the In line with the above, in general, the Combatant Commands to incorporate relationship between climate (change) drivers of instability that impact the security or natural resources and security is not environment in their areas into their often included in the training curriculum planning.’36 To do this, a good understanding for military personnel, and the natural of the various ways in which the natural environment is not (a standard) part of environment can play a role in conflict is operational doctrines. These doctrines needed. specify analysis of the operational conditions following the political, military, economy, NATO doctrine also requires use of a holistic, social, infrastructure and information integrated approach to work on recovery for (PMESII) environment to gain situational peace, security and rule of law. This comes awareness and understanding for the from a realisation that the root causes of mission. The natural environment is notably conflicts and fragile states are various, and absent and therefore lacks military attention. no simple solutions exist.37 The EU has a One reason might be that until recently both risk analysis format to start the integrated military and non-military actors typically approach, looking at structural factors and perceived climate change as a subject indicators that frequently correlate with for environmentalists rather than for hard conflict risk.38 Environment and climate security actors,33,34 even though NATO has change are among these factors. However, been working on environmental protection international governmental organisations policies since the 1970s.35 (IGOs) need to work on effective responses to climate security challenges.39
Within the military, experts on various topics advise military staff. A special adviser on 31 Causevic, A. (2016) ‘Facing an Unpredictable environment (which would be called an Threat: Is NATO Ideally Placed to Manage Climate ‘envad’) could ensure that after a conflict Change as a Non-Traditional Threat Multiplier?’, has ended, stakeholders incorporate Connections, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Spring 2017), pp. 59-80. the management of natural resources 32 World Economic Forum (2019) World Risks report into security sector reform and peace 2019, World Economic Forum, http://reports. weforum.org/global-risks-2019/?doing_wp_cron= 1551342507.7337551116943359375000, accessed 28 February 2019. 33 https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2011/Climate- 36 Revkin, A. (2017) ‘Trump’s defence chief cites Action/Uniform-Green/EN/index.htm, accessed climate change as national security Challenge’, 29-03-2019. Science, 14 March 2017, https://www.sciencemag. 34 In the NATO Civil Military Cooperation Center org/news/2017/03/trump-s-defense-chief-cites- of Excellence course participants receive an climate-change-national-security-challenge, educational booklet (Wit, P. and Noome, D.A., accessed 27-5-19. 2016, Winning the environment. The ecosystem 37 NATO Standardization Office (2017)NATO standard approach and its value for military operations, IUCN AJP-01 Allied Joint Doctrine Commission on Ecosystem Management, Gland, 38 Wood, N. (2018) Presentation at the symposium Switzerland), although it is not being explained. ‘Climate security: so what?’, The Hague, The 35 Kettunen, M., Noome, D., Nyman, J. and Kingham, Netherlands. R.A. (2018) ‘Reinforcing the Environmental 39 Dellmuth et al. (2018) ‘Intergovernmental Dimensions of the European Foreign and Security organizations and climate security: advancing the Policy’, Institute for European Environmental Policy, research agenda’, WIREs Clim Change, 9: Jan/Feb Brussels. 2018
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agreements, in order to achieve a sustainable The US government has an elaborate list of peace. The armed forces can, for example, resources on the nexus of climate change deploy reserve officers with expertise in the and security.42 As early as 2007, a start subject who often operate in the field of civil- was made on exchanging fossil fuels for military cooperation (CIMIC). alternative energy, and US military use of oil fell by 20 percent between 2007 and 2015, Mitigation of greenhouse gas although this was also due to a decline in emissions: efforts to reduce the combat operations. The number of renewable carbon footprint energy projects tripled between 2011 and Military organisations are increasingly asked 2015, and total renewable power generated to reduce their carbon footprint in pursuance by Department of Defense sites almost of overall efforts to reduce emissions from doubled in this period.43 Nevertheless, there their activities at home in line with the Paris is still huge potential to take further steps, as Agreement on Climate Change. In addition, the US Department of Defense is still one of armed forces are asked to limit their impact the largest consumers of fuel on the planet on the mission environment – its so-called and the second largest owner of land and ‘resource footprint’, thereby preventing harm property in the US. to the livelihoods of the civilian population they intend to protect.40 As government The Netherlands Ministry of Defence departments which, in many countries, have committed itself to reduce dependence the capacity and resources to innovate, on fossil fuels, not only to contribute to ministries of defence can send a very strong greenhouse gas reductions, but mainly to message to other stakeholders by taking the reduce battle-related risks in the supply lead. chain of fossil fuels. Mitigation measures in the ‘operational energy strategy’ are During the 2019 Planetary Security mainly focused on fossil fuels, and make no Conference, participants from France, New reference to the relationship between climate Zealand, Finland, the US and The Netherlands change and security. Mitigation measures discussed different approaches and on Dutch territory are the construction of experiences in addressing climate change in large solar panel sites and the electrification military organisations. The French Ministry of company cars. Currently, a new strategy of Defence published a policy paper entitled is being written. With regard to mission Defence and climate: France is committed, areas, both logistic experts and engineers with the slogan: ‘Understanding, Anticipating are experimenting to lessen the impact of a and Adapting’. Regarding mitigation of the mission on natural resources, among other ‘green defence’, France favours the use of things by recycling water and reducing eco-design for military equipment to limit waste. environmental impact. An example is the electric propulsion and hybrid architecture for In Finland, the Finnish Defence Force, as any the multi-mission frigate. Infrastructure must other government department, is expected be optimised: the new ministry headquarters to meet certain emission reduction goals, has the largest solar power roof in Paris and while safeguarding operational capacity. One uses geothermal water.41 A similar effort of their main focus points is energy security. is made in Finland, where the Ministry of As part of climate change adaptation, the Defence has set a number of indicators to Finnish Defence Force is working on energy reduce its carbon footprint. efficiency and attempting to rely on domestic (renewable) energy sources where possible.
40 https://www.unenvironment.org/explore-topics/ disasters-conflicts/what-we-do/preparedness- and-response/greening-blue-helmets 42 For an overview see www.climateandsecurity.org. 41 Regaud, N., Largemain, M., Chardon, J. (2018) 43 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military- Defence and climate: France is committed, Direction green-energy-insight/u-s-military-marches- générale des relations internationales et de la forward-on-green-energy-despite-trump- stratégie, Ministére des Armées, DICoD. idUSKBN1683BL, accessed 10-03-2019.
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Adaptation: how to assess the Early warning and risk analysis security risks of climate impacts New Zealand’s Ministry of Defence carried In addition to thinking about how to out an extensive assessment on climate decarbonise and adapt military equipment change and security, which resulted in a and operations in a changing climate, the policy paper with recommendations on military also relies on early warning and how to adapt to climate change. Policy risk analysis, which increasingly aims to pointers include: greening defence activities; take account of climate-related security researching the impact of climate change risks. An example is the recent foresight on military operations; begin planning analysis undertaken by the UK Ministry of for concurrent operational requirements; Defence.45 However, much of the analysis has and work on building resilience in the not been made public, as information about Pacific. French MoD adaptation measures where conflict risk is on the rise is highly include promoting dialogue between sensitive and disclosing it might, in some actors, developing and deepening regional cases, exacerbate sensitive dynamics on the cooperation, and initiating a long-term ground. From publicly available information research programme dedicated to climate on efforts to combine climate vulnerability change issues in terms of security and data with conflict risk indices,46 we know that defence.44 The US Department of Defense several methodological challenges hinder has written a number of publications on an adequate inclusion of climate change the need to adapt to climate change, such into early warning. These include: a) conflict as the 2014 Climate Change Adaptation risks often being available at country level, Roadmap. And the Defense Department is while climate change impacts can differ working on the adaptation of many bases across regions; b) longer time horizons of and surrounding areas that are threatened by climate change come with higher uncertainty sea level rise. ranges on the impact; c) differences between extreme weather events (e.g., The Netherlands Ministry of Defence has floods, hurricanes) and slow-onset events not published an adaptation strategy, but is (e.g., gradual temperature rise that reduces increasing its cooperation with civil security food, water and land resources); and d) the forces and governmental organisations to relationship between climate change and prepare for natural disasters on its mainland. other factors increasing conflict risk, such as During the Planetary Security Conference, a high prices of staple food. To address such representative from the Caribbean explained issues, data analysis must be supplemented that they are preparing for more hurricanes. with politically informed analysis from local Armed forces support in civil-military diplomats, conflict analysts and intelligence cooperation should improve deployment of services to gain a more complete picture of military support, as is indicated inter alia the situation on the ground. in the draft Plan of Action on Resilience in the Caribbean region that was developed under the lead of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) during a regional Planetary Security Conference in December 2018.
45 https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/index. php/news/uk-ministry-defence-identifies-climate- change-and-resource-use-among-highest-risks- 44 Regaud, N., Largemain, M., Chardon, J. (2018) defence-and, accessed 29-03-2019. Defence and climate: France is committed, Direction 46 For example the Water, Peace and Security générale des relations internationales et de la initiative, https://www.un-ihe.org/news/water- stratégie, Ministére des Armées, DICoD. peace-and-security-partnership.
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Recommendations
In order to increase the military’s overall 6. Increase collaboration with civilian, contribution to climate security, we would diplomatic and institutional partners that suggest to Ministries of Defence the have early warning systems (e.g., the following avenues to pursue: EU) – for example, on the relationship 1. Mainstream climate change in military between water shortage and conflict or doctrines and in mission statements. on extreme weather event warnings. For example, start with extending the 7. Foster exchanges and cooperation PMESII analysis framework used by between military organisations to NATO to include the factor ‘environment’. share experience and best practice Recognise that it is a framework in which in addressing climate change and one not only needs to answer the ‘what’ collaborating on HADR missions. At question, but also the ‘why’ question to European level, research programmes are gain a holistic understanding. being developed, but structural attention 2. Develop a long-term strategy for dealing to the issue in, for instance, the EU and with rising numbers of HADR missions; NATO staff is lacking. focus on prioritisation, flexibility and durability of equipment, and operational capacity. 3. Raise awareness and improve understanding of the impacts of climate change at every level of military organisations. To achieve this, develop and incorporate climate security and environmental awareness in the basic training of all personnel. International expert groups such as GMACCC47 can play a role in the development of such material. 4. To recognise and understand the root causes of conflict related to climate change, and to advise on effective measures, the military needs experts on these subjects. We therefore recommend the introduction of environmental assessment teams or environmental advisers (‘envads’), tasked with participating in all phases of missions. Reserve officers with expertise in various domains (in the Netherlands in the 1 Civil Military Interaction Command) can be used for this purpose. Examples are biologists and hydrologists to undertake ecosystem assessments, and others for advice on agriculture, infrastructure, animal health, governance, etc. 5. Mainstream climate change mitigation activities such as CO2 reduction and implement the circular economy within the organisation.
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10 About the Planetary Security Initiative
The Planetary Security Initiative aims to help increase awareness, to deepen knowledge, and to develop and promote policies and good practice guidance to help governments, the private sector and international institutions better secure peace and cooperation in times of climate change and global environmental challenges. The Initiative was launched by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2015 and is currently operated by a consortium of leading think tanks headed by the Clingendael Institute.
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E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org
About the authors
Maartje van Reedt Dortland, Dominique Noome, Fred Kruidbos and Sander Agterhuis are reserve officers at the Netherlands Ministry of Defence. They have various backgrounds in water management, natural resources management, ecology and human rights. The opinions expressed in this paper are the authors’ own and do not reflect the view of the Netherlands Ministry of Defence