JULY 2019 Climate Change and Policy Brief Degradation of Natural Resources: Implications for the Military Military organisations increasingly recognise that the security dimensions of climate change and natural resource degradation have implications for the way they plan and operate their activities. Based on policy documents, literature and a panel discussion held at the Planetary Security Conference (PSC) 2019, this paper first highlights various examples of ways in which climate change and natural resources are related to security. This is followed by a brief overview of measures to address climate change undertaken or planned by ministries of defence from various countries. The authors conclude with recommendations on how the military could address the security dimensions of climate change and natural resource stress in a way that would increase operational effectiveness while leading the way towards resource-efficient societies. Introduction Mechanisms The security dimension of climate change Increased frequency and severity of is receiving increasing attention. Climate extreme weather events change is recognised by the EU, the UN and In 2018 alone, there were numerous climate many other institutions as a so-called ‘threat change-related extreme weather events multiplier’. In addition, the UN Security such as floods, storm surges and hurricanes, Council has recognised climate change as leading to massive loss of life, property and a root cause of conflict in specific regions livelihoods. Cyclone Idai, which recently and countries, for example Lake Chad, West devastated large parts of Mozambique, Africa and Somalia. In this paper we discuss Zimbabwe and Malawi, has been named the role of the military in relation to climate as one of the worst disasters in southern security in the broadest sense, also taking Africa. The Netherlands has also experienced into account the ways in which climate this with Hurricane Irma in the Caribbean change affects natural resources. We do (St Maarten), while France has territory this by outlining the mechanisms through across the globe facing similar threats. The which climate change and natural resources same applies to New Zealand and Australia Agterhuis Fred Kruidbos, Noome, Sander Dortland, Reedt Maartje Dominique van influence security, and the implications for in the Pacific region. the military. We then describe a number of measures that could be put in place to deal with those security issues. Clingendael Policy Brief Sea level rise and other changes in only floods but also water scarcity for local the landscape populations. Ten percent of the world’s population live in low-lying areas less than ten metres above In a recent report by the Australian Senate sea level. Many of these areas are at risk Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence of flooding. Based on a global mean sea and Trade References,3 it was noted that level rise of 25-123cm by 2100, 0.2 to 4.6 ‘Australia’s naval assets may take on a percent of the global population is expected larger maritime security role, including to experience flooding events annually. managing activities in the Southern Ocean Expected annual losses as a consequence and Antarctica such as illegal fishing “due to of these events are 0.3-9.3 percent of global climate change-induced fisheries migration”.’ GDP.1 Clearly, this has serious implications for This links into a potential intensification of low-lying countries, such as The Netherlands conflicts in the South China Sea because and Bangladesh. Depending on the of maritime disputes about diminishing location, these include adaptation costs, resources.4 soil salinisation and displacement of the population. Water from melting glaciers Natural resources and ecosystems can can also create problems for people living also sustain and prolong a conflict. In downstream. The glaciers of the Himalayas, Afghanistan, the Taliban used opium poppy predicted to have melted by two-thirds by to finance its activities. Because diseases 2100 in a ‘business as usual’ scenario, can and pest insects were severely affecting lead to flooding of glacial lakes and major other crops, farmers did not have a financially rivers such as the Ganges and Indus.2 viable alternative to growing poppy. But with the help from the International Changed availability of natural Security Assistance Force (ISAF) on pest resources management, farmers in the district of Chora The growing world population is restored their almond (a cash crop) orchards. exerting more and more pressure on This helped them regain resilience and natural resources. In some instances, made them less susceptible to the Taliban. climate change exacerbates this situation However, a warmer climate stimulates rapid by rendering ecosystems less resilient, pest development5,6 and can alter the range thus reducing their ability to recover from of pests and diseases, damaging crops that degradation caused by human activity. previously would not have been affected by Coupled with changing weather patterns such infestations or outbreaks.7 and temperatures, which by themselves can diminish natural resources, this leads to changes in availability of natural resources such as water, fertile soil, timber, etc. 3 Commonwealth of Australia Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee (2018) Implications of climate change for Australia’s national security For example, the abovementioned Himalayan (accessed 22-05-2019). glaciers are critical sources of water for 4 https://www.sbs.com.au/news/exclusive-climate- about 250 million people who live in the change-warning-for-australia-s-military (accessed mountains. Another 1.65 billion people living 29-03-2019). in the valleys below are also dependent 5 Kocmánková et al. (2009) ‘Impact of Climate on it. Rising temperatures will cause not Change on the Occurrence and Activity of Harmful Organisms’, Plant Protect. Sci. Vol. 45, 2009, Special Issue: S48–S52. 6 Andrew, N.A. and Hill, S.J. (2017) ‘Effects of climate 1 Hinkel, J. et al. (2013) ‘Coastal flood damage and change on insect pest management’, in: Coll, M. adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise’, and Wajnberg E., Environmental Pest Management: PNAS 4 March 2014, 111 (9) 3292-3297. Challenges for Agronomists, Ecologist, Economist 2 P. Wester, Mishra, A., Mukherji, A. and Shrestha, and Policymakers, 2017. Wiley and Sons Ltd. A.B. (eds) (2019) The Hindu Kush Himalaya Chapter 9, pp. 197-223. Assessment — Mountains, Climate Change, 7 Doosti, A.A. and Sherzad, M.H. (2015) Climate Sustainability and People, Springer Nature change and governance in Afghanistan. The National Switzerland AG, Cham. Environmental Protection Agency, NEPA. 2 Clingendael Policy Brief Conflicts can also (unintentionally) harm the Implications of climate change natural environment, through destruction, for the military pollution and chemical tactics – for example, scorched earth tactics, over-utilisation and Military leaders are increasingly recognising fragmentation, possibly resulting in socio- the effect of climate change on international ecological changes.8,9 At the same time, security. ‘Climate change has a security conflicts can have positive impacts on the dimension,’ stated the Chief of Defence of environment – for example, if people are the Netherlands, General Tom Middendorp kept out of an area nature can thrive, or (ret.) in the 2016 and 2019 Planetary Security if armed forces actively manage land and Conferences. The role of the military in water, natural resources might be restored.10 relation to climate security needs to be A prime example is the Korean Demilitarized analysed in the context of the armed forces’ Zone, which has been left alone since core functions. Taking the core tasks of 1953 and now hosts a large number of the armed forces of The Netherlands as a endangered species.11 benchmark, these include: 1) protecting national territory, and that of allies, against Shift in geopolitical dynamics hostilities; 2) improving (international) law Climate change is leading to the creation and order and stability; and 3) supporting of new sea routes through Arctic areas, civil authorities in their efforts to react to which results in new geopolitical interests crises and disasters. All the various aspects in minerals, fishing and gas resources, with of climate change show that the core tasks of accompanying tensions. For Scandinavian the military are all directly affected. Climate countries and Russia, but also for allied change has implications for defence policy NATO countries, the melting ice creates regarding planning and procurement, and new vulnerabilities. The US Department of on the way operations are executed. Figure 1 Defense recently announced that Arctic outlines the implications of climate change sea ice is receding by about 13 percent per for military organisations, based on the four decade, and announced its strategy to step mechanisms explained above. up its cold-weather expertise in order to defend ‘America’s first line of defence’.12 Responding to increased demands for humanitarian assistance and In addition, in the quest to mitigate climate disaster response change, many countries agreed to the In the event of floods, cyclones or similar 2018 Paris climate agreement. This has extreme weather events, the military is accelerated an already ongoing energy often called upon to fulfil its role in crisis transition from fossil fuels to renewables, and disaster response. The military has and shifted power and resource dynamics unique capabilities to very quickly deploy globally,