HCSS SECURITY Climate Security Assessment A Methodology and Assessment of the Nexus between Climate Hazards and Security of Nations and Regions Femke Remmits, Elisabeth Dick, Michel Rademaker WASH Healthcare Food security Recent shocks Frequency Early warning intensityand Long-term Coping capacity adaptation Extreme weather event Resilience Natural hazard Hazard- Vulnerability specific Hazard- specific Climate Security Risk Poverty Index Life expectancy Susceptibility Socio- Education economic Standard of living Hazard zone Unemployment Exposure Area Gender Socio-economic development Institutional Infrastructure (in)stability Hazard-specific Persons in zone Corruption the hazard fragility State Population This Climate Security Risk Methodology and Assessment was coordinated with the International Military Committee on Climate and Security, sponsored by HCSS and co-sponsored by the Luxembourg Government. HCSS helps governments, non-governmental organizations and the private sector to understand the fast-changing environment and seeks to anticipate the challenges of the future with practical policy solutions and advice. Climate Security Assessment A Methodology and Assessment of the Nexus between Climate Hazards and Security of Nations and Regions HCSS Security The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies ISBN/EAN: 9789492102782 Authors: Femke Remmits, Elisabeth Dick, Michel Rademaker (Project leader) December 2020 © The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced and/or published in any form by print, photo print, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from HCSS. All images are subject to the licenses of their respective owners. Design: Mihai Eduard Coliban (layout) and Constantin Nimigean (typesetting). The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies [email protected] hcss.nl Lange Voorhout 1 2514EA The Hague The Netherlands HCSS Security Climate Security Assessment A Methodology and Assessment of the Nexus between Climate Hazards and Security of Nations and Regions Femke Remmits, Elisabeth Dick, Michel Rademaker The International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) is a group of senior military leaders, security experts, and security institutions across the globe dedicated to anticipating, analyzing, and addressing the security risks of a changing climate. The IMCCS is co-led by: IMCCS Secretary General The Honorable Sherri Goodman, Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security) US Department of Defense IMCCS Chair General Tom Middendorp (Ret), Former Chief of Defence of the Netherlands The IMCCS Expert Group consists of IMCCS leaders committed to driving analysis, policy and communications on climate and security, including through the development, publication and endorsement of the World Climate and Security Report, as well as other timely analysis driven by demand signals from the IMCCS. IMCCS Expert Group currently consists of representatives from four institutions: • The Center for Climate and Security (CCS), an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) • The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) • The Planetary Security Initiative at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations (Clingendael) • The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) IMCSS and HCSS are grateful for the support and co-sponsorship of the Government of Luxembourg. Special thanks to mr. Rol Reiland, Deputy Director of the Defence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Luxembourg for his support. Table of Contents Executive Summary 9 Introduction 11 Background 12 Scope 18 Used terms and definitions 20 Conceptual Framework 27 Risk assessment and matrix methodology 30 Research design for the risk assessment 30 Application into risk matrices 33 Country Climate Security Risk Analysis 35 Interpretating the climate security risk scores 35 Visualizing the results 36 Limitations 48 Appendix 1: Review of the literature 52 Appendix 2: Measuring Climate Hazards Risk 56 Assessment indicators 56 A climate security risk index score 58 Appendix 3: Stable indicator framework 61 Component: Vulnerability 63 Component: Exposure 77 Component: Susceptibility 79 Appendix 4: Hazard-specific indicators 98 Coastal flood risk 98 Riverine flood risk 112 Tropical storms risk: cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons 117 Landslides risk 122 Drought risk 128 Heat waves risk 140 Wildfires risk 145 Climate Security Assessment 5 Appendix 5: Climate Security Risk Country List 149 Coastal flooding 149 Riverine floods 151 Tropical storms 154 Landslides 156 Droughts 158 Heatwaves 160 Wildfires 162 Bibliography 165 6 HCSS Report List of Figures Figure 1. Risk as a function of probability and potential impact 22 Figure 2. The conceptual framework of probability 22 Figure 3. The conceptual framework of potential impact 26 Figure 4. The conceptual framework of climate security 27 Figure 5. The methodological framework to measure climate security risk 32 Figure 6. Example of a global coastal flooding risk matrix 33 Figure 7. Comparing hazard risks within a single country 34 Figure 8. Global plot of coastal flood risk including country codes. 37 Figure 9. The relative climate security risk of coastal flooding. 37 Figure 10. Global plot of riverine flood risk including country codes. 38 Figure 11. The relative climate security risk of riverine floods. 38 Figure 12. Global plot of tropical storm risk including country codes. 39 Figure 13. The relative climate security risk of tropical storms. 39 Figure 14. Global plot of landslide risk including country codes. 40 Figure 15. The relative climate security risk of landslides 40 Figure 16. Global plot of drought risk including country codes. 41 Figure 17. The relative climate security risk of droughts. 41 Figure 18. Global plot of heatwave risk including country codes. 42 Figure 19. The relative climate security risk of heat waves. 42 Figure 20. Global plot of wildfires risk including country codes. 43 Figure 21. The relative climate security risk of wildfires. 43 Figure 22. Climate Risk plot of Australia 44 Figure 23. Climate Risk plot of China 45 Figure 24. Climate Risk plot of India. 45 Figure 25. Climate Risk plot of the Netherlands. 46 Figure 26. Climate Risk plot of Russia 47 Figure 27. Climate Risk plot of the USA 47 List of Tables Table 1. Overview of the fixed indicator framework 62 Table 2. Coastal flooding indicators 102 Table 3. Riverine flooding indicators 114 Table 4. Tropical storms basins and seasons 118 Table 5. Tropical storms indicators 120 Table 6. Landslides indicators 124 Table 7. Drought indicators 132 Table 8. Heat waves indicators 142 Table 9. Wildfires indicators 147 Climate Security Assessment 7 Executive Summary Climate change and its adverse impacts on the world’s environment present increasing security risks to human systems. The rising frequency and strength of extreme weather events, like floods, tropical storms, landslides and, wildfires, are highly likely to increase the occurrence as well as the scope of climate-related disasters. Where extreme weather events interact with human systems, they have the potential to generate widespread mortality, morbidity, and health issues to people present in the hazard zone. Through the destruction of and damage to vital ecosystems, resources, livelihoods of people, infrastructures, and essential services, natural hazards can produce critical adverse consequences, including increased resource scarcity and/or competition, heightened inequality and social tensions, forced displacement and/or migration, and destabilized institutions. Through these mechanisms, natural hazards can pose substantial risks to overall societal stability and security. Climate security, in this report, implies the relationship between national security and human security and climate change through the direct and indirect security threats posed by climate change-related natural hazards. National security is a fundamental condition to protect human lives and to advance human security, including human rights. Natural hazards include events or trends directly influenced by climate change, including coastal and riverine floods, tropical storms (cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons), landslides, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires. Security threats include those adverse impacts of natural hazards on human societies that spill over into higher-order security risks, including significant natural disasters requiring military responses or natural hazards resulting in threats to critical resources and infrastructure, wide-scale forced displacement, political instability, or intra-state violence and conflict. Climate change and natural hazards generally do not directly produce intra-state violence or conflict. More often, climate change acts as a threat multiplier by triggering or aggravating existing pressures within societies, including demographic, social, economic, or political strains, that potentially develop as underlying drivers of instability and insecurity. Especially when climate change overburdens the capacity of governments to effectively deal with these accumulating pressures, societies become more vulnerable to social or political instability. This risk methodology and assessment focuses on the risks to national security generated by climate-related disasters and comprises elements like territorial integrity, ecological Climate Security Assessment 9 security, economic security, physical security, human security and, social and political stability. The methodology supports the combination