International Journal of Management (IJM) Volume 12, Issue 6, June 2021, pp. 189-200, Article ID: IJM_12_06_017 Available online at https://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJM?Volume=12&Issue=6 ISSN Print: 0976-6502 and ISSN Online: 0976-6510 DOI: 10.34218/IJM.12.6.2021.017

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INVESTIGATING THE IMPACT OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AJ&K,

Dr. Sabahat Akram Associate Professor at Department of Economics, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.

Muhammad Waseem Shahzad Lecturer at Department of Economics, University of Kotli , Pakistan.

Annam Khalil MS Scholar at Department of Economics, University of Kotli Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.

Waqas Younis Lecturer at Department of Economics, University of Kotli Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.

Midhat Shahzad Secretary Tourism, Government of Azad State of Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.

Dr. Faheem Ghazanfar Associate Professor at Department of Public Administration, University of Kotli Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.

ABSTRACT Even though this is a generally recognized that tourism development can positively effect on employment, income and education and impact the countries socio-economic development, the empirical research on the tourism development and socio-economic development are limited, specifically in case of state of AJ&K which largely depends upon tourism. The current research intends to add to the literature on tourism development and socio-economic development through empirical examining the connection among tourism development and socio-economic development in Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan. This research was based on social exchange theory. The data for this study was primary and collected through a questionnaire-based survey in three districts of AJ&K. The current study used SPSS version-21 for data analysis. The

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study used correlation and regression for analyzing data. This study findings confirmed that a considerable association exists among tourism development and socio-economic development in AJ&K, Pakistan. This research also validates the proposed tourism development and socio-economic development hypothesis. The present study increases the literature about tourism and socio-economic link, specifically for tourism dependent in AJ&K. The study findings are valuable for tourism officials, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and non-governmental organizations working for tourism development as well as economic development in AJ&K. Future researchers can base their research on the findings of this study. The current research is a primary data-based research conducted in a state which is having countless tourism potentials. The study is unique in the sense that to the best of authors’ knowledge it is probably the first of its nature in AJ&K. Key words: Tourism development, socio-economic development, education, income, AJ&K Cite this Article: Sabahat Akram, Muhammad Waseem Shahzad, Annam Khalil, Waqas Younis, Midhat Shahzad and Faheem Ghazanfar, Investigating the Impact of Tourism Development on Socio-Economic Development in AJ & K, Pakistan, International Journal of Management (IJM), 12(6), 2021, pp. 189-200. https://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJM?Volume=12&Issue=6

1. INTRODUCTION Tourism industry is emerged as an imperative field of economy in this era of rapid growth and globalization. It has significant effect on GDP and economic share of employment in many countries. It provides strength to the state by offering inside preference to tourist. Moreover, it has various optimistic effects on economy such as assorted education, improved employment ratio; refine hoteling, cultural altercations and recovering currency exchange rate [1, 2]. The studies in many developed and developing countries prove that tourism is one of the most impactful sectors of economy which effect the exchange rates, substantial capacities of external currency influxes, substructure expansion, and thus impacts the social and economic growth of the nation. The impact of tourism on economic and social equity is depicted in economies of many developed countries like Austria, Switzerland, and France. It has a share of 10percent in world’s GDP and one out of tenth employment ratio of the universal labor force. Tourism is considered as a connote to stable foreign trade by rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves [3-5]. Tourism can contribute directly by job creation. Standard of living can be improved by job creation, thereby improving socio economic development of nation. In the past, Pakistan tourism industry was affected by terrorism and unstable political situations. However, from 2015 onwards things settle to change for better. Visitor exports created 3.6% of overall exports in 2016, the over-all input of T & T to GDP was PKR 2,349.0 bn in 2017 this is 7.4% of GDP and is predictable to raise by 5.8% to PKR2,486 in 2018. In 2017, T&T generated 1,493,000 jobs; this is the 2.5% of overall employment in 2018. In 2018, the predicted growth rate of the sector was 7%. In 2017, and Travel & Tourism investment was PKR410.4bn, 9.1% of over-all investment[6]. Azad Kashmir is a remote area in northern Pakistan. It is a disputed area between India and Pakistan, and a bone of contention for many decades now. Because of its disputed nature tourism activities were not possible here for long time but after 2004 ceasefire and CBM initiatives tourism stated to evolve here as it has many tourist potentials attractions. Studies revealed that the Sate of Azad Jammu and Kashmir having area of 13,297 km is blessed with

https://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJM 190 [email protected] Sabahat Akram, Muhammad Waseem Shahzad, Annam Khalil, Waqas Younis, Midhat Shahzad and Faheem Ghazanfar magnificent valleys, rivers, lakes, and waterfalls. It is known for its beauty as “heaven on earth” and “Switzerland of East”. It is a place of attraction for almost half millions of tourists around the world. The area of AJK is covered with pine forests, snow covered peaks, green meadows. Research studies revealed that AJK earmarked 250 million for tourism in 2016-17 and earning from tourism was 67.378. There is a continuous growth in tourism related activities in the region of AJK. This research study is aimed to display the part of the tourism industry in the socio-economic growth of AJK. The number of tourists in the state is continuously increasing day by day. In 2015, it was 1.143 million whereas in 2016 and 2017 , this number was increased to 1.562 million and .752 million respectively [7, 8]. Khan and Callanan [9] revealed that tourism plays a significant role in the socio-economic growth of any country. It is essential to point out that it exerts a strong positive influence on the economic growth rate of local community by creating job opportunities. Very rare research studies are available on this topic with special reference to Pakistan. In case of AJK this dearth is more acute. Kashmir is a point of conflict between India and Pakistan. In this region tourists were not allowed to enter till 2005. This area was opened to tourism after CBM (Confidence building Measure) between India and Pakistan. There are few studies conducted on the dynamics of socio-economic impact of tourism in this region. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore and analyze the impact of tourism on socio-economic development of Azad Jammu & Kashmir.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW Some studies have reported on the contributions of tourism commerce to socioeconomic growth, such as an increase in job opportunities and the expansion of shops for minor occupations. These studies emphasize the strategies developed by tourism shareholders to support the tourism industry. These studies revealed that tourism has a negative impact on the people who live in tourist areas [10, 11]. A study demonstrates the socioeconomic development of ecotourism objects in Lampung province, Indonesia. This study indicates that the investment opportunities surrounding Mutun Coast Tourism Magnetisms are of the heightened type. Tourism affects the surrounding people's trade, employment growth, and advancement in boat rental service. Mutun Beach Tourism has seen as the enhancement in tourist numbers following a makeover. The increase in revenue is being attributed to a large number of tourists. [12, 13]. Kim [14] demonstrates that the effects of tourism have an influence on the Greatness of Living of members of the community. This study investigates how the effect of tourism enhances people's life satisfaction. The results indicate that tourism varies depending on the stage of development. Andereck and Vogt [15] study illustrates residents' attitudes and support for tourism development. The findings of this study show that civilizations differ in terms of residents' attitudes toward tourism and the availability of resources to support sustainable tourism. In general, people pay attention to tourism and particular kinds of development. While each community's type of relationship is unique. Schubert, Brida [16] highlights the fundamental relationship between benefit after tourism and interest in developing and tourism support. According to the major objectives, host residents benefit more from tourism than they disadvantage. The economic impact of tourism proves that the tourism industry provides economic value. The findings related to socio-cultural effects revealed uncertain attitudes. Ross [17] described this study titled ‘Resident Acuities of the Effects of Tourism on an Australian City.' This research showed that populations perceived primarily significant outcomes within the

https://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJM 191 [email protected] Investigating the Impact of Tourism Development on Socio-Economic Development in AJ & K, Pakistan economic scope, as well as some adverse impact such as a rise in crime rates and social impact actuality associated with changes in the kindness of residents. Some research has demonstrated that Gross domestic product and job opportunities contribute significantly to tourism, but this framework can only be used for short-term forecasting because our data only spans a few years, which causes problems in this concept and makes it unsuitable for long-term predictions [17, 18]. A study compared three economic impact models for pragmatic hospitality and tourism. The outcome demonstrates that there is a significant disparity in the component of income. Three model was used to determine revenue in three main ways,and the results lie different [19]. A few researchers found students' findings about the financial, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts of tourism in Chitral, , Pakistan. The findings demonstrated that students perceive the economic effects of tourism in the most positive light. Tourism has significant social and environmental consequences. Students believed that tourism would create job opportunities and improve the region's economic situation [18, 20]. The study presents residents' understandings of the financial impacts of tourism development in Phuket and demonstrates the economic implications of sustainable tourism on Thai residents. According to the research results, tourism helps the local economy and provides economic advantages to residents [19, 20]. Carneiro and Eusébio [21] evaluated the host-tourist interface as well as the development of the tourism industry on people's standard of living. The results indicate that the interface between locals and tourists in these areas is brief and superficial, and that there is a positive relationship between host and visitor interactions. The high standard of living was caused by tourism. Greiner [22] looked into how to increase the total economic benefits for people living in remote northern Australia. Residents are prepared to trade as well as exchange economic and environmental costs for economic benefits. Another researcher investigated the socioeconomic effects of tourism progress on residents by associating the social and economic structures of households involved in the tourism industry. The outcome demonstrates the importance of economic growth for the residents [23]. According to Rehman, Ma [24], tourism has positive significant economic effects such as increased earning potential, enhanced productivity growth, steadily increasing living standards, significant demand, infrastructure development progress, and better business opportunities. However, specific negative economic impact have been identified, such as increased land value and rent, increased income inequality, and price escalation of essential goods and services. In their research of the tourism & hospitality sector in Sri Lanka, Nayomi and Gnanapala [25] identified tourist industry as a primary source of revenue. Wahyudi [26] investigate the social and economic effects of tourism on the residents of Rawalakot, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan. For data collected from 20 respondents, the researcher used both the statistical method, a qualitative and quantitative research procedure. According to this research, the growth of tourism has a significant impact on people's survival. This resulted in increased employment opportunities as well as improved infrastructure in the chosen community. Tourism also had some negative consequences, such as rising land prices, high rental rates, and exorbitant prices for essential supplies. Also strengthened about the sociocultural effects on the public of selected areas in arranging variations in the family construction and effect residents' dressing style [27]. The host community is involved in tourism activities because of their sustenance. Based on the literature reviewed above, the following hypothesis was proposed and investigated in this study.

H0= Tourism has no significant impact on socio-economic indicators.

H1= Tourism has significant impact on socio-economic indicators.

https://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJM 192 [email protected] Sabahat Akram, Muhammad Waseem Shahzad, Annam Khalil, Waqas Younis, Midhat Shahzad and Faheem Ghazanfar 3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 3.1. Theoretical Framework This section suggests a theoretical framework to assess residents’ keenness of socio-cultural and economic effects of tourism with reference to social exchange theory. Literature reveals that local people exert exact, sociological influence tourists from all over the world [28]. Many models have been proposed to identify the effects of tourism on masses of population. Social exchange theory has been directed to measure the effects of tourism on empathetic of inhabitants’ insight [29-31]. Tourism is beneficial for the tourist in the form of buying of goods or service or a wanted practice whereas on the other side host community gets advantage of economic improvement. The exchange practice itself tracks a labeling of actions, origination with the ID of a requirement. Such an exchange cannot happen except a case of essential or an inspiration happens, therefore if a community wants to promote tourism for social and economic development, it requires a lot of effort to do so [32, 33]. The custom of generosity in a community is probably to be changed with the advent of stable tourism [33]. Social exchange theory has important implication to give descriptions of equally advantageous and disadvantageous acuities and to identify association at whichever the separate or communal flat. Furthermore, it points out that inhabitant sustenance and assessment of the impact of tourism depend on what they worth. Lack of theoretical basics is another significant facet while making simplifications in relations of inhabitant’s observations. On resident perception has been broadly known that the theoretical direction of educations positions complications in developing theoretical contexts[34]. Such theoretical backgrounds have rare implications because the study of tourism is relatively to be functional than theoretical in nature. However, the existing theoretical alliance can be observed as a chief restraint in progressing empathetic of inhabitants’ acuities of tourism. Local community attitudes towards tourism are recommended to be based upon some theoretical fundamentals. In the context of tourism, Social exchange theory believes that people attitude towards tourism will be biased by their assessment of noteworthy consequences in the host community [35]. Whereas the Social Exchange Theory with its practical implications offers a foundation for documentation and description of major concepts involved in calculating local’s acuities of tourism [36] has not continuously been entirely empirically maintained [34].With the increase in applied and theoretical reception, this theory require to be more verified due to the compound nature of inter relations planned in the model [37].

3.2. Population and Sample The population of study comprised of people from Muzaffarabad, Neelum and Rawalakot. It was based on males and females from the age group up to 18 and nonetheless of their education, culture and occupation. Stratified random sampling technique was used to collect data from different strata of the targeted population so that respondents from diverse age groups, educational level, professional experiences can take part in the research study. Chocran Orcut formula was used to calculate sample size of the study. Population of this study was the residents of state of AJ&K. The sample size was 384 take n from the three districts of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir i.e. Muzffarabad, Neelum valley and Rawlakot. Data was collected through questionnaires.

3.3. Data Analysis Data was analyzed through Statistical package for social sciences version 21. Descriptive analysis was made to highlight the key characteristics of the sample. Reliability of data was

https://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJM 193 [email protected] Investigating the Impact of Tourism Development on Socio-Economic Development in AJ & K, Pakistan checked through Cronbach alpha coefficient. Correlation analysis was made to test the relationships among the variables being studied. K-S test was used to check the normality of data. A linear regression model was developed and used to empirically test the stated hypothesis, measuring the impact of tourism on socio-economic development of AJ&K. Socio- economic development was dependent variable of study and tourism inflow, employment, income, and education was taken as independent variables of research study. To explore the relationships among studied variables and their impact the researchers employed following regression model.

SED =훽0+훽1Tourisminflow+훽2EMP+훽3EDU+훽4Y+휇1 Where, SED = Socio-Economic Development (Indicator) Tourism inflow = Numbers of Tourist Enter. EMP = Employment level. EDU = Education level (literacy rate) Y= Income of the area (per capita income).

휇1 = Error Term 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 4.1. Descriptive Analysis The disruptive analysis presents the summary of results which contains quantitative information regarding structure of different elements involved in a study. The descriptive analysis usually uses different methods for analyzing and employing such statistics, the most widely used descriptive statistics involve standard deviation, median, mean, minimum and maximum values for the used items. The mean values and the standard deviations for all variables lie in acceptable range.

Table 1 Descriptive analysis S.E.D. T.I. Emp. Inc. Edu. N S.D. .45989 1.213 1.324 1.348 1.326 384 Mean 3.7432 3.64 3.62 3.68 3.64 384 Max. 4.34 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 384 Mini. 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 384 N 384 384 384 384 384 384

4.2. Correlation Analysis Correlation analyses are used to identify the level of association that exists between any two variables, or the variables involved in a study. The researchers used Pearson correlation in this study to explain the level of association among the studied variables. The Pearson correlation is represented by r and the value of Pearson correlation varies between +1 and -1. If the value of r is +1 or -1, it indicates a perfect correlation and if the value of r is 0, it indicates that two variables have no link or connection.

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Table 2 Correlations S.E.D. T.I. Emp. Inc. Edu. S.E.D. Pearson Correlation 1 Sig. (2-tailed) N 384 T.I. Pearson Correlation .091 1 Sig. (2-tailed) .087 N 384 384 Emp. Pearson Correlation .362** .102 1 Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .744 N 384 384 384 Inc. Pearson Correlation .524** -.120 .216* 1 Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .522 .021 N 384 384 384 384 Edu. Pearson Correlation .524** -.016 -.082 .011 1 Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .764 .162 .882 N 384 384 384 384 384 ** The level of significance r is 0.01. * The level of significance is 0.05. The correlation results in table-2 indicates the level of relationship that exists among the studied variables, most of the variables under investigation are correlated. The correlation among the tourism inflow and socio-economic development has been found insignificant, the p-value for this relationship is greater than .000 indicating an insignificant relationship between these variables. The correlation between rest of the variables is significant as the p-value for all other variables is .000.

4.3. Regression Analysis The study employed regression analysis to determine the impact of socio-economic development on tourism development in AJ&K. The regression analysis help us to measure the magnitude of the impact generated by the independent variable on dependent variable, therefore, it was employed in this study.

Table 3 Regression Analysis R .812a R2 Change .626 R2 .626 F Change 108.164 Adjusted R2 .592 df1 4 Std. Error of the Estimate .30924 df2 379 Durbin-Watson 2.312 Sig. F Change .000 a. Predictors: (Constant), Edu., Inc., T.I., Emp. b. Dependent Variable: S.E.D. The value of R-square explains the change in one variable (dependent variable) that is caused by the change in other variable (independent variables). The results in table-3 indicates that r-square value is .626, which demonstrates that 62.6 percent variation in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables used in this study. In other words, the variables used in this model explains 62.6 percent variations. The F tests are used to determine the fitness of the model along with Durbin Watson test. The F test value is 108.164 and the Durbin Watson test values is 2.312. These values are also significant and indicates that the model used in this study can measure the impact of independent variable on dependent variable.

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4.4. ANOVA Results The researchers were interested to measure the variations among studied variables. To study the variations between group means in a sample, ANOVA is the most effective technique. ANOVA works on the principle of total variance. The study results are as under:

Table 4 ANOVA Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig 1 Regression 51.244 4 12.242 109.986 .000b Residual 40.232 379 .212 Total 91.476 383 a. Predictors: (Constant), Edu, Inc, TI, Emp b. Dependent Variable: SED The ANOVA analysis were employed to determine the overall impacts of the model employed at the significance level of 5 percent. According to the study null hypothesis the model is statistically insignificant. However, the p-value in the results is less than 0.05 and it indicates that the study null hypothesis was not supported. Hence, we can draw the findings that the study model is statistically significant. R2=51.244\91.476=0.5601 F (4, 379) =12.242\.212=109

4.5. Coefficients of Determination The authors calculated coefficients of determination to measure the overall inconsistency occurred in dependent variable due to model witnessing. Further to this, it also helps in determining what percent of the data is lying close to the model fitness line.

Table 5: Coefficient Model Unstandardized Standardized t Sig. coefficients Coefficients B Std. Error Beta 1 (constant) 1.750 .095 18.345 .000 Tinflow .051 .014 .103 2.962 .003 Employment .079 .013 .227 6.464 .000 Income .098 .013 .466 13.280 .000

Education .201 .014 .505 14.484 .000

The results in table 5 reflects that the studied variables are correlated and dependent variable i.e., socio-economic development is significantly impacted by the independent variables i.e., tourism inflow, employment, education, and income levels. This was illustrated by the t-value which is more than 1.97 threshold value at p value less than 0.05. The results in table 5 indicates that one percent increase in tourism inflow will lead five percent increase in socio-economic development. The results also demonstrate that one percent increase in employment will lead almost eight percent increase in socio-economic development of the studied population. An increase of one percent in income levels can impact almost ten percent increase in socio- economic development of the studied population. The results also indicate that education of the targeted population has the most significant impact on socio-economic development of the studied population, a one percent increase in education levels can impact almost twenty percent increase in socio-economic development.

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The researchers have plotted the actual data together with fitted model. It was found that model contains no perfect fit. The link among independent and dependent variable is quite robust, as illustrated in figure below.

Figure 1 Regression Plot

5. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS To evaluate the effectiveness of tourism on the socio-economic growth of AJ&K, these researchers collected data using a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire. They utilized ordinary least square (OLS) regression to analyze the data, including socio-economic indicators as a dependent variable and tourism inflow, education, income, and employment levels in AJ&K as independent variables. The following are the study's main findings. The overall growth of the economic and socio-cultural development of the region is socio- economic development. This study showed a positive connection between tourism inflow and socio-economic development. The effects of tourism inflow on socio-economic growth of AJ&K is optimistic. This suggested that a marginal increase in AJ&K's socio-economic development leads to improved tourist industry inflow and tourism. The main factors in the socio-economic development of AJ&K are income, education and employment in the area selected. These variables are significantly affected by the socioeconomic development of AJ&K. The findings of this study indicated that there is a significant connection between the effects of tourism and a precise livelihood which means that an increasing understanding by the population of the optimistic economic impact of tourism and also increases the satisfaction of significantly living standard and the community increases its satisfaction with the substantial well-being of the population. The conclusion also recommended that even though the result of research does not indicate the number of effects of controlling possessions of a phase of growth in tourism, the connection between tourism and the precise areas of existence has been approximately expressive. This research also showed that the link between the impacts of tourism development and the specific preference for life after tourism is different for periods in which tourism is expanded. Tourism industry development can have a massive effect on socio-economic development planning. This development affects not just tourism-related activities but also other segments. To develop AJ&K as a tourist State, government, policymakers, business people, and non-profits must make special efforts. There should be a particular emphasis on road infrastructure and tourist residential areas. The government and legislators need to see the

https://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJM 197 [email protected] Investigating the Impact of Tourism Development on Socio-Economic Development in AJ & K, Pakistan conditions for tourism development evolve and include all this information to enhance the inflow of tourists. There must be high-quality requirements, new and successful techniques in tourist firms, enterprises, hotels, and restaurants worldwide. This study aims to describe how tourism affects the socioeconomic status of residents in the chosen region. Future studies will better describe residents who believed their inclusive standard of living improved as a result of tourism. Furthermore, future researchers will be required to use longitudinal research to answer why the relationship between a specific life domain and the impact of tourism varies according to stages of tourist expansion. Residents' attitudes toward sustainable rural tourism development must also be investigated through studies. Future research could aid in classifying the impact, development, planning, and management of tourism.

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