BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7261, 27 November 2015 Iraq and Syria - By Ben Smith and Claire Mills developments in 2015 Inside: 1. ISIS in Iraq 2. ISIS in Syria 3. Military capabilities of ISIS and other anti-government groups 4. Syrian government under increased pressure 5. Russian and Iranian intervention 6. Kurds 7. Control of terrain 8. Risks of spill-over 9. Humanitarian situation 10. The military response 11. US policy 12. UK humanitarian assistance and migrants 13. UN process on Syria 14. Outlook 15. Further reading www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library |
[email protected] | @commonslibrary Number CBP 7261, 27 November 2015 2 Contents Summary 4 1. ISIS in Iraq 6 Ramadi 6 Shia militias in the ascendant 6 Mosul 7 Sinjar 7 2. ISIS in Syria 9 Kobane 9 Palmyra 9 3. Military capabilities of ISIS and other anti-government groups 10 Impact of Coalition airstrikes on ISIS capabilities 11 3.1 Other anti-government groups 12 4. Syrian government under increased pressure 15 5. Russian and Iranian intervention 18 5.1 Russian action 18 5.2 Russian objectives 19 Problems for the Kremlin 20 5.3 Iran 22 5.4 Iran/Russia outlook 23 6. Kurds 24 7. Control of terrain 27 Syria 27 Iraq 29 8. Risks of spill-over 31 9. Humanitarian situation 34 9.1 Civilian casualties 35 10. The military response 37 10.1 Revisiting the Syria vote in Parliament? 38 Foreign Affairs Committee report 40 10.2 Towards the second debate? 40 10.3 UK shifting on Assad? 43 11.