La Propagande Francophone De Daech : La Mythologie Du Combattant Heureux

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

La Propagande Francophone De Daech : La Mythologie Du Combattant Heureux La propagande francophone de Daech : la mythologie du combattant heureux Pierre CONESA François Bernard HUYGHE Margaux CHOURAQUI Contact : [email protected] TABLE DES MATIERES : Avant-propos Première partie : L’aboutissement d’un long processus à la fois clandestin et licite 1.1 Le terreau salafiste 1.2 Une vidéothèque et une médiathèque djihadistes de plus en plus fournies 1.3 Al Qaeda : le mythe fondateur 1.4 La transition au pays de Cham Deuxième partie : Daech a bâti une propagande assez classique avec des moyens de nouvelle génération 2.1 Daech associe propagande globale de masse sur le Web et approche individuelle sur les réseaux sociaux 2.2 Un produit nouveau : le califat, son territoire, son Etat, sa société idéale. 2.3 Bâtir un nouvel ordre mondial 2.4 La Coalition du Mal combat l’Islam et non pas Daech 2.5 La guerre doit se propager en terre de Mécréance. 2.6 L’action terroriste défend partout les musulmans humiliés Troisième partie : La dialectique Daech : image/texte; le story telling du combattant; des produits variés et adaptés; propagande/contre propagande 3.1 Le primat de l’image sur le texte 3.2 Le Héros au pays des combattants heureux et fraternels 3.3 Daech dispose d’une organisation professionnalisée qui crée des produits adaptés aux groupes cibles : portraits, jeux de guerre, films publicitaires, reportages, clips musicaux, vidéos post attentats 3.4 La propagande salafiste est d’autant plus efficace qu’elle s’appuie sur les contradictions occidentales 2 Daech est donc une entité du web 2.0 incensurable qui associe propagande de masse et approche individuelle afin d’atteindre ses groupes cibles. Quatrième partie : Place et rôle de la communication francophone dans la politique d’ensemble 4.1 La place de la France dans la démonologie djihadiste 4.2 Les principaux griefs de Daech contre la France 4.3 Les combattants français parlent aux Français 4.4 Justifier par la théologie, la mort de musulmans français après Novembre 4.5 La France est une cible prioritaire pour ce qu’elle fait autant que pour ce qu’elle est Cinquième partie : Comment mesurer l’efficacité de la propagande sur le processus de radicalisation 5.1 Daech c’est d’abord une rhétorique 5.2 Comment mesurer l’efficacité du discours de Daech 5.3 Résultats d’entretiens en l’absence d’échantillon représentatif 5.4 Démontage de la sociologie des réseaux terroristes Conclusion : quels conseils pour une politique de contre propagande ? 3 ANNEXES : ANNEXE 1 : GLOSSAIRE : LA NOVLANGUE DE DAECH ANNEXE 2 : LISTE DES DOCUMENTS TRAITES -Vidéos - Revues - Synthèse analytique des revues ANNEXE 3 : LES PREDICATEURS SALAFISTES USUELS D’ARABIE SAOUDITE ANNEXE 4 : CHRONOLOGIE 4 AVANT PROPOS : Cette étude tente de mesurer l’efficacité d’un système d’influence, qu’on l’appelle propagande quand il s’agit de l’Autre, de communication publique quand on parle de soi- même, ou de soft power si l’on veut faire moderne. Dans ce monde, la réalité a, dans une certaine mesure, moins d’importance que la façon dont l’émetteur crée une fiction pour le récepteur. Pour autant, il serait trop simple de disqualifier la communication francophone de Daech avec un langage de la tératologie (la science des monstres) en parlant de propagande, de mensonges, ou de perversion des djihadistes, et il serait aussi trop naïf de croire qu’il suffirait de « révéler » la vérité pour faire renoncer les djihadistes ou les postulants. L’efficacité de la stratégie politico-médiatique de Daech est impressionnante. Les quelques 27.000 djihadistes étrangers présents en Syrie provenant d’une centaine de pays selon l’étude Sofan Group, équivalent en effectifs aux réservistes de l'armée française. Au même moment et à titre de comparaison, les combattants étrangers seraient 6 500 en Afghanistan et quelques centaines en Libye, Pakistan ou Somalie. Ces conflits-ci ne communiquent quasiment pas ou seulement en Arabe et en Anglais (à quelques exceptions près). Il en résulte une différence forte en termes de recrutement. On a tendance à donner à la communication de Daech la responsabilité première de la radicalisation. Comprendre sa capacité à mondialiser son combat et à prendre la tête de la mouvance salafiste est une question cruciale, et mesurer l’importance et l’économie générale de la communication vers le public francophone, un enjeu majeur pour notre sécurité puisque les Français constituent le plus important contingent d’Occidentaux. Les chiffres sont très incertains ; certaines sources parlent de plus de 10 000 Français partis (en stock cumulé), d’autres de 1 900 individus « concernés » par les filières terroristes djihadistes, dont 1 450 pour la Syrie et l'Irak en juillet 2016. Selon les derniers chiffres du Premier ministre, Manuel Valls, il y en aurait à ce jour 680 dans les zones de Djihad, 179 en transit dans un pays tiers, 203 qui ont séjourné mais qui sont revenus en France et 187 morts au combat. Mais l’efficacité de la propagande de Daech s’explique autant par l’image dégradée des différents pays intervenant dans le conflit syro-irakien que par le savoir-faire des communicants du califat. Les mensonges publics des grandes démocraties américaine, britannique, espagnole ou française qui ont été révélés, contribuent paradoxalement autant à renforcer l’efficacité du discours salafiste djihadiste que les argumentaires théologiques développés dans les revues de Daech et d’Al Qaeda. Depuis l’invasion soviétique en Afghanistan, les interventions militaires occidentales directes ou indirectes contre la révolution iranienne ou l’Irak lors de la guerre du Golfe ; le silence coupable des grandes capitales lors des trois Intifada (révolte des pierres) et des meurtrières opérations israéliennes sur la bande de Gaza ; l’invasion otanienne de l’Afghanistan ; l’intervention pour protéger le peuple libyen au nom du « devoir de protéger », qui n’a jamais été accordé aux Palestiniens ; enfin la destruction décidée de l’Etat irakien accompagnée du scandale de la prison d’Abou Ghraib, font que les Occidentaux (Russes y compris) sont devenus un ennemi global des djihadistes. Ils ont perdu toute légitimité à vouloir régir le Moyen Orient, ce qui ne les empêche pas d’intervenir militairement. Comprendre la propagande est essentiel pour déterminer où faire porter l’effort de contre- radicalisation ? Une étude comme celle-ci ne peut être conclusive que si elle est comparative. 5 Nous avons abordé l’analyse en trois étapes : Qu’est ce qui fait l’originalité de la propagande de Daech par rapport à d’autres groupes radicaux, Al Qaeda en particulier ? Comment est structurée la communication francophone de Daech : place, importance, argumentaire, originalité ? Comment mesurer l’impact réel de cette propagande dans les processus de radicalisation ? En conclusion nous essaierons de dégager quelques pistes de contre-propagande 6 Première partie : L’aboutissement d’un long processus à la fois clandestin et licite Daech a élevé la communication au plus haut niveau stratégique mais en exploitant mieux un terreau déjà largement fourni. 1.1 Le terreau salafiste Il faut tout d’abord observer l’extraordinaire progression du salafisme depuis une trentaine d’années partout dans le monde arabo-musulman. Les idées politiques diffusées par cette idéologie sont particulièrement dangereuses et préparent psychologiquement au passage à la violence par le sentiment de vérité révélée absolue nourrissant l’hostilité à la moindre déviance, par le discours vengeur assis sur la « victimisation » du monde arabo-musulman et par une vision du djihad comme concept libérateur de la terre d’Islam. Le salafisme quiétiste présenté par certains analystes comme apolitique et non violent, est un ersatz de djihadisme puisque l’essentiel des messages repose sur le racisme (contre les koufar), l’antisémitisme, le sectarisme (contre le malikisme ouvert au consensus ; le chafiisme laissant place à la liberté d’interprétation, et au hanafisme tolérant à l’égard au raisonnement personnel et surtout au soufisme trop spirituel) ; sur l’homophobie ; la misogynie, la suprématie de la Charia sur le vote populaire et enfin l’intolérance. La distinction entre l’une et l’autre formes de salafisme reviendrait à se demander si la pratique religieuse de l’un est plus supportable que l’autre dans une démocratie un peu comme si on s’était demandé si Hitler était véritablement antisémite avant son accession au pouvoir, un « nazi quiétiste » en quelque sorte. Daech se réfère à l’Islam du temps du prophète et désavoue tous les penseurs, pour s’arroger le monopole de la juste interprétation du Coran. Ce positionnement du « seul contre tous » est un levier essentiel de sa propagande. On retrouve sur les sites salafistes toutes les thématiques de l’intolérance chères à Daech ou à Al Qaeda. La propagande salafiste est donc une préparation psychologique et une justification religieuse à des pratiques violentes toujours présentées comme défensives. Pour les Salafistes, l’agression vient de ceux qui, refusant de se convertir à la vraie loi de Dieu, font spirituellement la guerre à Allah et mènent une persécution, contre les vrais croyants. Les réactions violentes dans certains quartiers contre les contrôles policiers de femmes bâchées en Niqab, en sont la traduction quotidienne. En ce sens le rôle constant et toujours actuel des prédicateurs de l’Arabie saoudite est essentiel à rappeler (ANNEXE 3). 1.2 Une vidéothèque et une médiathèque djihadistes de plus en plus fournies Daech est loin d’avoir tout inventé. La filmographie djihadiste commence avec la guerre en Afghanistan, ne cessant de se perfectionner en qualité visuelle et technique, puis en élargissant les moyens, les thèmes traités et les lieux du djihad (Bosnie, l’Algérie, puis la vague d’attentats d’Al Qaeda…). Rappelons qu’avant le 11 septembre on trouvait déjà des VHS d’exécutions : décapitations par des djihadistes tchétchènes ou tueries de soldats algériens par des militants du GIA.
Recommended publications
  • SYR SITREP Map April 20-28 2015
    Syria Situation Report: April 20-28, 2015 1 April 24 – 26: ISIS raided three villages in the Shuyukh Plain region southwest of 6 April 22 – 26: ISIS seized the Jabal al-Muhassa region of the Eastern Qalamoun on April 22 following Ayn al-Arab after crossing the Euphrates River with boats, allegedly capturing a heavy clashes with JN, Jaysh al-Islam, and other rebel forces, cutting a strategic rebel supply route in the number of civilians. YPG forces supported by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes clashed with Damascus countryside. e ISIS advance was allegedly facilitated by assistance from local rebel brigade Jaysh ISIS militants to repel the assault. Tahrir al-Sham. Jaysh al-Islam and other rebel forces continue to clash with ISIS in an attempt to retake Jabal al-Muhassa. 2 April 22 – 26: JN and other rebel factions participating in the ‘Jaysh al-Fatah’ Operations Room announced the Qamishli 7 April 26: Ahrar ‘Battle to Liberate Qarmeed Camp’ on April 22 Ayn al-Arab al-Sham, Jaysh al-Islam, targeting a regime military base southeast of Idlib city, 1 Ras al-Ayn and ve other Aleppo-based sparking heavy clashes which included a VBIED rebel groups announced the detonation. JN and rebel forces seized total 7 formation of the ‘Conquest of control over Qarmeed Camp on April 26 Aleppo’ Operations Room in Aleppo following an assault which began with Aleppo Hasakah city. is announcement follows the two BMP-delivered SVBIED attacks. Idlib Sara 4 2 formal dissolution of the Jabhat Regime forces subsequently targeted al-Shamiyah rebel coalition in Aleppo on 11 2 ar-Raqqa the camp with barrel bombs and 2 14 APR.
    [Show full text]
  • Shifting Gears: Hts’S Evolving Use of Svbieds During the Idlib Offensive of 2019-20
    SHIFTING GEARS: HTS’S EVOLVING USE OF SVBIEDS DURING THE IDLIB OFFENSIVE OF 2019-20 HUGO KAAMAN OCTOBER 2020 POLICY PAPER CONTENTS SUMMARY Since May 2019, a series of Syrian loyalist offensives backed by the Russian * 1 BACKGROUND air force has gradually encroached upon the country’s northwestern Idlib Province, home to the last major pocket of opposition-held territory. As the chief rebel group in control of Idlib, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has * 5 THE 2019 OFFENSIVE employed dozens of suicide car bombs as part of its continued defense of the area. Formally known as suicide vehicle-born improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs), these weapons have been a cornerstone of the group’s * 13 DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT OF TACTICS, TECHNIQUES, — and by extension, the entire opposition’s — military strategy since early stages of the war, when rebel forces began capturing and holding territory. AND PROCEDURES In an attempt to further understand this strategy and how it has evolved over time, this case study seeks to compare and contrast HTS’s past and current use of SVBIEDs, with a heavy focus on the latter. It will also examine * 19 CONCLUSION HTS’s evolving SVBIED design, paying particular attention to technical innovations such as environment-specific paint schemes, drone support teams, tablets with target coordinates, and live camera feeds, as well as * 20 ENDNOTES upgraded main charges. MAP OF HTS SVBIED ATTACKS, 2019-20 Cover photo: An up-armored SVBIED based on a pick-up truck used by HTS against a Syrian loyalist position near Abu Dali/Mushayrifa in eastern Hama on Oct.
    [Show full text]
  • The Syrian Armed Conflict: Nearing the End ?
    THE WAR REPORT 2018 THE SYRIAN ARMED CONFLICT: NEARING THE END ? © ICRC JANUARY 2019 I MARIJA SULCE THE GENEVA ACADEMY A JOINT CENTER OF and interests amid the unrest. The struggle for power in the CONTEXT AND HISTORY OF THE CONFLICT1 region has drawn into the conflict countries such as the US, The Syrian armed conflict began in 2011 as a civil Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel and many others. To a degree, war, stemming from the Arab Spring protests. The Syrian the conflict has become more international in character, people started protesting in March 2011 in Daara against rather than remaining faithful to its non-international the corruption of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, civil war roots. The conflict is no longer only about Syria’s lack of political freedom and unemployment. The government and Assad’s corruption; in recent years, it has demonstrations took an ugly turn when the regime tried become a pawn in the geopolitical struggles of the Middle to crush the dissent by force.2 After the forceful response East.7 Having said that, the international community has to the demonstrations, protests against the regime erupted played an important role in trying to facilitate peace talks nationwide. The regime’s opponents started taking up between the Assad regime and the opposition groups. One arms and the unrest began its descent into civil war in July example is the Astana talks in 2017, which managed to set 2011, when a group of defectors from the Syrian military up de-escalation zones in Syria, sponsored by Russia, Turkey began forming the Free Syrian Army (FSA) with the aim and Iran,8 as well as the demilitarized zone brokered by of overthrowing President Assad’s regime.3 During the Turkey and Russia in the last remaining rebel stronghold in almost eight years of ensuing civil war, many parties have Idlib in September 2018.9 joined the conflict, including many rebel groups as well Approaching its eighth year, the Syrian war is one of the as other states, highly complicating the war.
    [Show full text]
  • Growing Rebel Capabilities Press the Syrian Regime by Jeffrey White, Oula A
    MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 2414 Growing Rebel Capabilities Press the Syrian Regime by Jeffrey White, Oula A. Alrifai Apr 27, 2015 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Jeffrey White Jeffrey White is an adjunct defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant and Iran. Oula A. Alrifai Oula A. Alrifai is a senior fellow in The Washington Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics. Brief Analysis Given the major setbacks the regime has suffered over the past week, now is a good time to apply maximum pressure on Assad, whether to force genuine diplomatic negotiations or accelerate a full military defeat. n April 22, a coalition of Syrian rebel forces launched a major operation, "The Battle of Victory," to drive O Assad regime forces from the northern Idlib province. Conducted with jihadist elements in a leading but not exclusive role, the campaign follows the successful capture of the provincial capital at the end of March. The current operation is larger and broader in geographic scope; it has produced some of the most serious fighting of the war and could mark a turning point. If the rebels can consolidate and exploit their latest gains, the regime will have suffered another major defeat in a string of setbacks since February -- a sequence of events that suggests failing capacity among government and allied forces. The rebels would then be poised for further offensive operations in the north, and the boost in morale would likely energize them on other fronts. Moreover, much of the credit for their success would accrue to Islamist factions, including those linked to al-Qaeda, further strengthening their military and political position in the north and likely boosting it elsewhere in Syria as well.
    [Show full text]
  • Conflict Economies in the Middle East and North Africa
    Chatham House Report Tim Eaton, Christine Cheng, Renad Mansour, Peter Salisbury, Jihad Yazigi and Lina Khatib Conflict Economies in the Middle East and North Africa Chatham House Report Tim Eaton, Christine Cheng, Renad Mansour, Peter Salisbury, Jihad Yazigi and Lina Khatib Middle East and North Africa Programme | June 2019 Conflict Economies in the Middle East and North Africa Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is a world-leading policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world. The Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House 10 St James’s Square London SW1Y 4LE T: +44 (0) 20 7957 5700 F: + 44 (0) 20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Charity Registration No. 208223 Copyright © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2019 Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author(s). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. ISBN 978 1 78413 332 0 A catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. Printed and bound in Great Britain. Typeset by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Cover image: A petrol pump near Harf Sufyan, Amran governorate, Yemen, February 2014. Copyright © Peter Salisbury Contents Executive Summary iv 1 Introduction 1 2 Conflict Economies – National Level 8 3 Conflict Sub-economies 20 4 Implications for Policy 49 About the Authors 60 Acknowledgments 62 Executive Summary The conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen have killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions.
    [Show full text]
  • Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response
    Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response Updated July 27, 2020 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov RL33487 SUMMARY RL33487 Armed Conflict in Syria: July 27, 2020 Overview and U.S. Response Carla E. Humud, As of 2020, Syria faces growing economic instability and pockets of renewed political Coordinator unrest, amid ongoing interventions by outside states and new public health challenges Analyst in Middle Eastern posed by the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). The government of Syrian Affairs President Bashar al Asad—backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—has recaptured most areas formerly held by opposition forces but faces persistent challenges from fighters Christopher M. Blanchard linked to the Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIL/ISIS), as well as new protests Specialist in Middle stemming from deteriorating economic conditions. U.S.-backed local forces have Eastern Affairs recovered most territory formerly held by the Islamic State, but the group continues to maintain a low-level insurgency. U.S. policy toward Syria since 2014 has prioritized counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State, which sought to direct external attacks from areas under the group’s control in northeast Syria. Since 2015, U.S. forces deployed to Syria have trained, equipped, and advised local partners under special authorization from Congress and have worked primarily “by, with, and through” those local partners to retake nearly all areas formerly held by the Islamic State. As of July 2020, about 600 U.S. troops
    [Show full text]
  • Borgarting Lagmannsrett - Dom - LB-2019-78359
    Utskrift fra Lovdata - 13.03.2020 10:26 Borgarting lagmannsrett - Dom - LB-2019-78359 Instans Borgarting lagmannsrett – Dom Dato 2019-12-30 Publisert LB-2019-78359 Stikkord Strafferett. Terrorforbund. Deltakelse i terrororganisasjon. Universalprinsippet. Straffeloven (2005) § 136a og § 133 første ledd, jf § 5 tredje ledd. Straffeloven (1902) § 147d, jf. § 5 tredje ledd og § 147a fjerde ledd, jf. § 12 fjerde ledd. Sammendrag Tiltalte ble funnet skyldig i å ha inngått terrorforbund med terrororganisasjonen Nusra-fronten i Syria i perioden 2014 til utgangen av 2016. Tiltalte, som var statsløs palestiner fra Libanon, ble frifunnet for deltakelse i terrororganisasjon. Lagmannsretten kom til at FNs sikkerhetsråds resolusjon 1373 gir hjemmel for å anvende norsk straffelovgivning på terrorforbund inngått av utlending i utlandet, men at folkeretten ikke gir hjemmel for å anvende universalprinsippet på deltakelse i terrororganisasjon i et slikt tilfelle. Lagmannsrettens flertall kom til at det dreide seg om et langvarig forbund der tiltalte ved gjentatte anledninger på nytt bekreftet avtalen nær opp til gjennomføringen av terrorhandlinger som innebar risiko for tap av mange menneskeliv mv. Straffen ble satt til fengsel i 8 år og 6 måneder etter fradrag for at tiltalte bidro bidrag til å lette etterforskningen og lang varetektstid. Dissens. Saksgang Oslo tingrett TOSLO-2018-141077 – Borgarting lagmannsrett LB-2019-78359 (19-078359AST-BORG/03). Parter A (advokat Alexander Nyheim Jenssen og advokat Brynjar Nielsen Meling) mot Det nasjonale statsadvokatembetet (statsadvokat Frederik G. Ranke). Forfatter Lagmann Tonje Vang og lagdommer Jørgen F. Brunsvig.Meddommere: rådgiver Odd Magne Johansen, produksjonsleder Mia Jonette Finckenhagen, sjefskonsulent i EVRY Hogne Neteland, bussfører Arne Hermann Vevle og avdelingsleder Ingeborg Beate Kristin Solstad.
    [Show full text]
  • CPIN Syria Civil
    Country Policy and Information Note Syria: the Syrian Civil War Version 4.0 August 2020 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies: • A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm • The general humanitarian situation is so severe as to breach Article 15(b) of European Council Directive 2004/83/EC (the Qualification Directive) / Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules • The security situation presents a real risk to a civilian’s life or person such that it would breach Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules • A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) • A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory • A claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and • If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002.
    [Show full text]
  • ABU ABD ALLAH AL-SHAMI: a LEADING SALAFIST MILITANT COMMANDER Programs/Mlm0/ and Click on Log-In
    VOLUME VI u ISSUE 4 u APRIL 2015.. IN THIS ISSUE: BRIEFS ...................................................................................................................................................................1 A POST-MORTEM PROFILE OF EGYPTIAN JIHADIST LEADER HAMAM MOHAMED ATTIYA By Muhammad Mansour ........................................................................................................................................4 Ibrahim bin Suleiman LOSUBA WONGA: THE NEWEST REBEL COMMANDER IN SOUTH SUDAN al-Rubaish was a key By Brian Adeba .........................................................................................................................................................5 religious official for AQAP, who was recently A LOOK BACK AT THE LIFE AND TIMES OF AQAP’S MUFTI SHAYKH IBRAHIM BIN killed in a drone strike. SULEIMAN AL-RUBAISH Militant Leadership Monitor is By Ludovico Carlino ................................................................................................................................................7 a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. It is designed to be FROM JEMAAH ISLAMIYA TO ISLAMIC STATE: MARWAN’S MISSION ENDS IN read by policy-makers and other MINDANAO specialists yet also be accessible to the general public. In order to By Jacob Zenn ...........................................................................................................................................................9 purchase a subscription, visit http://www.jamestown.org/ ABU ABD ALLAH AL-SHAMI:
    [Show full text]
  • Iraq and Syria - by Ben Smith and Claire Mills Developments in 2015
    BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7261, 27 November 2015 Iraq and Syria - By Ben Smith and Claire Mills developments in 2015 Inside: 1. ISIS in Iraq 2. ISIS in Syria 3. Military capabilities of ISIS and other anti-government groups 4. Syrian government under increased pressure 5. Russian and Iranian intervention 6. Kurds 7. Control of terrain 8. Risks of spill-over 9. Humanitarian situation 10. The military response 11. US policy 12. UK humanitarian assistance and migrants 13. UN process on Syria 14. Outlook 15. Further reading www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary Number CBP 7261, 27 November 2015 2 Contents Summary 4 1. ISIS in Iraq 6 Ramadi 6 Shia militias in the ascendant 6 Mosul 7 Sinjar 7 2. ISIS in Syria 9 Kobane 9 Palmyra 9 3. Military capabilities of ISIS and other anti-government groups 10 Impact of Coalition airstrikes on ISIS capabilities 11 3.1 Other anti-government groups 12 4. Syrian government under increased pressure 15 5. Russian and Iranian intervention 18 5.1 Russian action 18 5.2 Russian objectives 19 Problems for the Kremlin 20 5.3 Iran 22 5.4 Iran/Russia outlook 23 6. Kurds 24 7. Control of terrain 27 Syria 27 Iraq 29 8. Risks of spill-over 31 9. Humanitarian situation 34 9.1 Civilian casualties 35 10. The military response 37 10.1 Revisiting the Syria vote in Parliament? 38 Foreign Affairs Committee report 40 10.2 Towards the second debate? 40 10.3 UK shifting on Assad? 43 11.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloads/Yassin Al-Haj Saleh- the Syrian Shabiha and Their State.Pdf
    THE INTER-UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR TERRORISM STUDIES Syria: Quo Vadis? Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Profile of Selected Opposition Groups .......................................................................................................... 5 Jabhat al-Nusra .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Jaysh al-Fatah ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Jaysh al-Islam .................................................................................................................................................. 15 Southern Front ............................................................................................................................................... 20 Appendix: “Timeline Charts of a Syrian Civil War” ............................................................................... 24 Selected Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................... 29 Disclaimer The authors, editors, and the research staff cannot be held responsible for errors or any consequences arising from the use of information contained in this publication. The views expressed do
    [Show full text]
  • Russia's Dead-End Diplomacy in Syria
    NOVEMBER 2019 JENNIFER CAFARELLA WITH JASON ZHOU RUSSIA’S DEAD-END DIPLOMACY IN SYRIA Jennifer Cafarella with Jason Zhou, Institute for the Study of War RUSSIA’S DEAD-END DIPLOMACY IN SYRIA Cover: Russian military vehicle is seen nearby a poster of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during reopening of the road between Homs and Hama in Rastan, Syria, June 6, 2018. REUTERS/Omar Sanadiki All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing or from the publisher. ©2019 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2019 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 | Washington, DC 20036 understandingwar.org ABOUT THE AUTHORS Jennifer Cafarella is the Research Director at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). She is responsible for setting the organization’s research priorities and overseeing their execution by the ISW Research Team. She also leads its simulation exercises and efforts to develop detailed policy recommendations for critical theaters abroad. She has conducted these exercises for various military units deploying overseas and regularly briefs military units preparing to deploy on a range of subjects including Syria, ISIS, and Russia. She has written extensively in various outlets including Foreign Affairs, The Hill, and Fox News, and appeared on several media programs including C-SPAN, CNN, and Fox News.
    [Show full text]