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EQUITIES MTR Corporation Ltd (66 HK) CONGLOMERATES 

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EQUITIES MTR Corporation Ltd (66 HK) CONGLOMERATES  8 March 2017 EQUITIES MTR Corporation Ltd (66 HK) CONGLOMERATES Reduce: Resilient business but stock is fully valued Hong Kong FY16 underlying earnings ahead on property development; MAINTAIN REDUCE recurrent earnings was in-line with expectation. Strong land tender pipeline to capture Mainland demand TARGET PRICE (HKD) PREVIOUS TARGET (HKD) 35.00 33.50 Maintain Reduce, but raise TP to HKD35 (from HKD33.5) SHARE PRICE (HKD) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE Resilient core business, but stock is fully valued. MTR’s underlying earnings 41.45 -15.6% came in ahead of our expectation; recurrent profit (which excludes property (as of 07 Mar 2017) development) was in-line with our expectation. Outlook for the core business remains resilient, with full-year contribution from the new lines underpinning patronage and MARKET DATA Market cap (HKDm) 244,790 Free float 24% EBITDA growth in 2017e, despite having a negative impact on net profit due to Market cap (USDm) 31,526 BBG 66 HK depreciation charges. Despite stable fundamentals, we see potential downside to the 3m ADTV (USDm) 16 RIC 0066.HK stock given premium valuation, with the stock trading at close to par with our NAV, or FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (HKD) 27x 2017e PE, while offering a 2.7% (excl. special) dividend yield. Year to 12/2016a 12/2017e 12/2018e 12/2019e HSBC EPS 1.61 1.53 1.49 1.60 FY16 earnings ahead on property development. MTR reported FY16 underlying HSBC EPS (prev) 1.56 1.55 1.48 - Change (%) 3.2 -1.3 0.7 - earnings of HKD9,446m, down 13% y-o-y, and 3%/4% above consensus/HSBC Consensus EPS 1.58 1.61 1.64 - estimate. Excluding contribution from development properties, recurrent profit came PE (x) 25.7 27.1 27.8 25.9 Dividend yield (%) 7.9 7.9 2.6 2.8 in at HKD8,916m, up 4% y-o-y, in-line with our estimate. MTR declared a final DPS of EV/EBITDA (x) 16.6 16.9 17.3 16.3 HKD0.82, bringing full-year DPS to HKD1.07 (up HKD0.01 and keeping with its ROE (%) 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.6 progressive dividend policy, vs our expectation of flat divdends). Net gearing 52-WEEK PRICE (HKD) increased 11.6pp h-o-h to 20.2% as of end-2016, compared to 8.6% as of June 46.00 2016, primarily due to the payment of HKD2.2/sh in special dividend relating to the XRL Agreement. A second tranche of special dividend (HKD2.2/sh) is payable this 39.00 year, which would take net gearing to 36% as of end-2017e based on our estimate. 32.00 03/16 09/16 03/17 Strong land tender pipeline next year, capturing Mainland bidders’ demand. Target price: 35.00 High: 44.00 Low: 33.97 Current: 41.45 After awarding tenders for Ho Man Tin Ph1 (to consortium led by Goldin Financials) Source: Thomson Reuters IBES, HSBC estimates in Dec 2016 and Wong Chuk Hang Ph1 (to consortium led by Road King Infrastructure and Pingan Real Estate) in Feb 2017 amid strong interest, MTR is Samuel Hui* Analyst, HK/China conglomerates planning to launch up to six further tenders in the next 12 months, including LOHAS The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Park Ph11 & 12, Wong Chuk Hang Ph2 & 3, and potentially the Yau Tong Ventilation [email protected] +852 2996 6743 Building site, subject to re-zoning and other approvals. We believe this will allow MTR Michelle Kwok* to capture the recent strong demand from Mainland Chinese bidders to lock in the Head of Real Estate Research, Asia Pacific value of its remaining landbank. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited [email protected] Maintain Reduce rating with a target price of HKD35 (from HKD33.5). We fine- +852 2996 6918 tune our FY17-18e underlying earnings by -1% to +1% to reflect the FY16 results. Amish Sanghi* Associate We also raise our target price to HKD35 (from HKD33.5), based on a 16% discount Bangalore to NAV of HKD41.4 (from HKD39.8 after rolling forward to end-2017e NAV). Key upside risks include slower than expected increases in interest rates and faster-than- * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations expected growth in the HK economy. Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com EQUITIES ● CONGLOMERATES 8 March 2017 Financials & valuation: MTR Corporation Ltd Reduce Financial statements MTR: Sum-of-the-parts NAV breakdown Year to 12/2016a 12/2017e 12/2018e 12/2019e (HKDm) (HKD/sh) % of GAV Profit & loss summary (HKDm) HK railways 57,894 9.8 21% HK transport operations 17,655 18,714 19,375 20,155 - Existing rail 54,358 9.2 20% HK station commercial 5,544 5,737 5,871 5,985 - New rail 3,536 0.6 1% HK property rental and mgmt 4,741 4,823 5,060 5,239 HK station and related 92,079 15.7 34% Non-HK rail subsids 14,826 17,931 15,596 16,376 - Station shops 63,853 10.9 24% Expanded Rails & Stations and 2,423 2,544 3,897 8,185 - Other station commercial 16,054 2.7 6% other revenue - New stations 7,481 1.3 3% Total operating expenses (29,663) (33,473) (33,848) (38,827) - Octopus and others 4,692 0.8 2% EBITDA 15,526 16,277 15,950 17,112 Investment Properties 83,311 14.2 31% Depreciation and amortisation (4,127) (4,797) (5,030) (5,226) Development properties 26,149 4.4 10% Property development profits 311 42 227 63 China and Overseas railways 12,526 2.1 5% EBIT after prop dev profits 11,710 11,522 11,147 11,949 HO costs and others (2,231) (0.4) -1% Profit from associates and JCE's 535 633 744 857 Total Enterprise value 269,728 45.9 100% Net interest expense (612) (952) (1,156) (1,302) Net debt + HO costs (39,246) (6.7) Non-operating profit/loss 808 0 0 0 Special dividend added back 12,933 2.2 PBT 12,441 11,203 10,736 11,503 Equity value 243,415 41.4 Taxation (2,093) (2,106) (1,884) (2,008) Source: HSBC estimates Minority interests (94) (90) (87) (94) Net profit 10,254 9,008 8,764 9,402 Underlying NP 9,446 9,008 8,764 9,402 Recurring NP (ex prop dev) 8,916 8,391 8,575 9,349 Price relative Cash flow summary (HKDm) Cash flow from operations 13,094 13,541 13,288 14,235 47.00 47.00 Capex (11,939) (10,583) (8,600) (10,140) Changes in investments 4,551 (1,428) (1,273) (1,437) New shares issued 0 0 0 0 42.00 42.00 Dividends paid (18,508) (19,371) (6,495) (6,913) Others 20,774 9,551 3,581 4,755 37.00 37.00 Net change in cash 7,972 (8,290) 500 500 Cash beginning 12,318 20,290 12,000 12,500 32.00 32.00 Cash at end 20,290 12,000 12,500 13,000 Balance sheet summary (HKDm) 27.00 27.00 Share capital 47,929 47,929 47,929 47,929 2015 2016 2017 Reserves 101,532 91,258 93,615 96,198 MTR Corporation Ltd Rel to HANG SENG INDEX Shareholders' funds 149,461 139,187 141,544 144,127 Source: HSBC Long-term liabilities 38,698 49,896 53,477 58,232 Minority interests 95 95 95 95 Note: Priced at close of 7 March 2017 Deferred tax and others 13,415 13,415 13,415 13,415 Total capital employed 201,669 202,594 208,531 215,869 Fixed assets 201,942 180,594 183,064 184,338 Other assets 25,893 48,726 51,698 57,266 Current assets 29,505 22,443 23,315 24,735 Total assets 257,340 251,762 258,077 266,340 Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 12/2016a 12/2017e 12/2018e 12/2019e Y-o-y % change Revenue 8% 10% 0% 12% EBITDA 6% 5% -2% 7% Operating profit 6% 1% -5% 9% PBT -19% -10% -4% 7% HSBC EPS -14% -5% -3% 7% Ratios (%) ROIC ex-exceptional 7% 7% 6% 7% ROE ex-exceptional 9% 10% 9% 10% ROA 4% 4% 3% 4% Operating margin 25% 23% 22% 21% Core profit margin 23% 18% 18% 17% Interest cover (x) 13.7 11.2 9.2 9.0 Net debt/equity 20% 36% 37% 39% Net debt/EBITDA (x) 1.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 Per share data (HKD) Reported EPS (fully diluted) 1.74 1.53 1.49 1.60 HSBC EPS (fully diluted) 1.61 1.53 1.49 1.60 DPS 3.27 3.28 1.09 1.16 BV 25.43 23.68 24.08 24.52 2 EQUITIES ● CONGLOMERATES 8 March 2017 MTRC: FY16 results comparison (HKDm) 2016 2015 y-o-y 2016e Diff % Comments Revenue 45,189 41,701 8% 44,386 2% Revenue higher than expectation mainly due to contribution from property development in Shenzhen (Tiara) HK transport operations 17,655 16,916 4% 17,784 -1% HK station commercial business 5,544 5,380 3% 5,535 0% HK rental and prop mgmt 4,741 4,533 5% 4,535 5% Non-HK businesses 14,826 12,572 18% 14,146 5% Other businesses 2,423 2,300 5% 2,386 2% EBITDA (ex DP) HK transport operations 7,633 7,214 6% 7,666 0% Driven by 4.3% y-o-y growth in domestic average fare and stringent cost control HK station commercial business 5,012 4,830 4% 4,969 1% Driven by ongoing positive rental reversion in station retail; advertising was soft HK rental and prop mgmt 3,930 3,668 7% 3,667 7% Rental reversion at shopping malls was 3.4% for FY16; similar level to 1H16 Non-HK businesses 954 586 63% 813 17% Growth driven by contribution from Tiara; weaker contribution from Melbourne led to miss Other businesses 145 126 15% 138 5% Project study and business development expenses (361) (304) 19% (313) 15% EBITDA and b4 variable annual payment (ex DP) 17,313 16,120 7% 16,940 2% Profit from HK/China property development 311 2,891 -89% 445 -30% No major completion during the year, only sundry income EBITDA and b4 variable annual payment 17,624 19,011 -7% 17,386 1% Depreciation and amortisation (4,127) (3,849) 7% (4,370) -6% Variable annual payment (1,787) (1,649) 8% (1,750) 2% EBIT 11,710 13,513 -13% 11,265 4% Interest costs (612) (599) 2% (647) -5% Investment property revaluation 808 2,100 -62% 48 1583% Share of profit/loss of associates 535 361 48% 541 -1% PBT 12,441 15,375 -19% 11,207 11% Tax (2,093) (2,237) -6% (1,941) 8% Profit 10,348 13,138 -21% 9,266 12% MI (94) (144) -35% (120) -22% Net profit 10,254 12,994 -21% 9,146 12% Underlying net profit 9,446 10,894 -13% 9,098 4% Underlying net profit (ex DP) 8,916 8,565 4% 8,787 1% EPS (HKD) 1.74 2.22 -22% 1.57 11% Underlying EPS (HKD) 1.61 1.87 -14% 1.56 3% DPS (HKD) 3.27 1.06 208% 3.26 0% DPS was raised by HKD0.01 in keeping with MTR's progressive dividend policy No.
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