Summary of Natural Catastrophe Events 2019 Willis Re eVENTTM Update Insured losses and economic impact due to natural disasters Volume 8 Natural Catastrophes in 2019 i Table of contents Major natural catastrophes in 2019 per region based on insured losses ..................................................... iii Contact us ..................................................................................................................................................... iv Introduction.................................................................................................................................................... 1 1. In focus .................................................................................................................................................. 3 2. Major natural catastrophes in 2019 ....................................................................................................... 8 3. Other natural catastrophe events by peril and location ....................................................................... 42 Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................................. 52 Sources ....................................................................................................................................................... 52 Natural Catastrophes in 2019 ii Major natural catastrophes in 2019 per region based on insured losses Natural Catastrophes in 2019 iii Contact us For further information, please contact: John E. Alarcon, Ph.D., M.Sc. Prasad Gunturi, M.Sc. Executive Director Executive Vice President Catastrophe Analytics, Willis Re International Catastrophe Analytics, Willis Re North America Willis Re Willis Re Willis Ltd I 51 Lime Street I London EC3M 7DQ 8400 Normandale Lake Blvd, Suite 1700 I +44 (0) 20 3124 8678 Bloomington, MN 55437 +1 952 841 6641 [email protected] [email protected] Karl Jones Vaughn Jensen Managing Director Executive Vice President Catastrophe Analytics, Willis Re International Catastrophe Analytics, Willis Re North America Willis Re Willis Re Willis Ltd I 51 Lime Street I London EC3M 7DQ 8400 Normandale Lake Blvd, Suite 1700 I +44 (0) 20 3124 7488 Bloomington, MN 55437 +1 952 841 6641 [email protected] [email protected] With special thanks to the eVENT summary response team: Charlotte Miller (EMEA W/S London) | Rebecca Stepanian (EMEA N/E London) | Natasha Denn (APAC Ipswich) | Charlie Mariner (APAC Ipswich) | Alexander Saunders (EMEA W/S London) | Sarah Lochhead (EMEA W/S London) | Matt Day (EMEA W/S London) | Ed Spurling (EMEA W/S Ipswich) | Alexander Paul (EMEA N/E Ipswich) | Alex Wilkerson (EMEA N/E London) | Bethany Young (LAC London) | Nikil Pujari (NA Mumbai) | Roy Cloutier (NA Minneapolis) willistowerswatson.com I willisre.com January 2019 Natural Catastrophes in 2019 iv Introduction This report summarizes economic and insured losses from the most relevant natural catastrophe events that occurred during 2019. The loss values presented herein include those reported by Willis Re, catastrophe model vendors, reinsurance companies and third-party organizations. Loss estimates are presented in USD, for which rates of exchange at December 1, 2019, have been used. Our insured loss estimates from major natural catastrophes in 2019 of about USD 53 billion are in the same order of magnitude as those observed in 2012 and keeps to the trend of reduction in natural catastrophe losses seen since 2017, when the annual market losses reached USD 143 billion. The insured losses in 2019 are about 18% lower than the average annual losses since 2011, which stand at USD 65.2 billion (see table below). Similarly to what was observed in 2018, for 2019 the losses are coming from minor and midsized loss events rather than from one or a couple of natural disasters that concentrated a large percentage of the insured losses during that given year (e.g., HIM hurricanes in the North Atlantic in 2017 or the Tohoku Earthquake in Japan in 2011). During 2019 in the U.S., the largest single insured loss came by end of May when a severe thunderstorm affecting the High and Central Plains and eastern parts of the country produced circa USD 3 to 4 billion of insured losses. In addition, the severe thunderstorm between March 23 to 25 that affected the Central and Low Plains produced more than USD 1 billion loss. In Japan, Tropical Cyclones Faxai in September and Hagibis in October had insured losses of circa USD 7 billion and USD 8 billion, respectively, while Australia has been affected by bushfires that so far have produced more than USD 900 million. Europe saw lower insured losses from natural disasters during 2019 than in recent previous years: Winter Storm Dragi-Eberhard in March produced circa USD 850 million losses mainly from Belgium, France, the UK, Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg. This level of losses in Europe is similar to the USD 830 million caused by the hailstorms in June affecting Germany, Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic. In the Middle East and Africa region, Tropical Cyclone Idai hit Mozambique in March with circa USD 150 million insured losses and caused more than 1,000 fatalities. Finally, in Latin America and the Caribbean, the highlight of 2019 is the impact of Hurricane Dorian with insured losses in the Caribbean that could range between USD .75 billion and 2.5 billion. The aforementioned events, along with others having lower insured losses, are described in detail in the second part of this report, listed in chronological order. Additionally, a summary of events is provided in the tables at the end of this document, organized by peril/region affected and in chronological order. Insured losses from natural catastrophes since 2011 (Willis Re estimates). Note that the 2018 estimates differ to those reported in our previous document due to loss creep of events Natural Catastrophes in 2019 1 A couple of visualizations showing both the regional and per peril distribution of loss estimates is presented in the figures below. For regionalization purposes we have divided the globe into Asia Pacific (APAC), Europe, the Middle East and Africa (MEA), North America, and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). For 2019, North America had the largest insured losses with around 46% of the total, closely followed by APAC with 37%. In a distant third position, we see LAC with about 10% of the total insured losses (driven by Hurricane Dorian and a significant number of flood events), followed by Europe with circa 6% and the MEA region with under 1%. By peril, severe weather (hail, tornado, straight wind) had 40% of the total losses followed by tropical cyclones (hurricanes) in the Northwestern Pacific with 32%, and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic with 12%. Natural Catastrophes in 2019 2 1. In focus The 2019 Australian bushfire season Record low rainfall and warmer than average temperatures in 2019 resulted in the highest ever fire weather risk across Australia as measured by the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), with record high values observed in areas across all states and territories (Figure 1). Climate processes: Australia's climate was impacted by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019, exerting a drying influence over many parts of the country. A prolonged negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode enhanced the warm and dry conditions in areas of eastern Australia, and a sudden stratospheric warming in September shifted the westerly winds further north over New South Wales and Queensland in October and November. The combination of dry, hot and windy conditions provides the perfect environment for bushfires to Figure 1. Accumulated-FFDI deciles for spring 2019 ignite and spread rapidly. (based on all years since 1950). Source: Special Climate Statement 72-dangerous bushfire weather in spring 2019 (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) Catastrophic fire danger ratings have been issued in New South Wales (NSW), Western Australia (WA), South Australia (SA) and Victoria (VIC). Impacts include the loss of human lives and damage to property, as well as extensive loss of wildlife and environmental heritage. (Further details on impacts can be found on page 27.) Almost all major fires that continue to burn into 2020 are beyond a suppressible size and will only be extinguished through a significant rainfall event or a deficit of consumable fuel. Elevated fire conditions are expected to persist across eastern Australia into February, despite an increased chance of rainfall suggested by local weather conditions. Figure 2. Firefighters tackle the Gospers Mountain fire Figure 3. Satellite image of Batemans Bay, Australia, on in the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area December 31, 2019. (Copernicus EMS; Sentinel 2/ESA) outside Sydney. Photograph: Dean Lewins/EPA Natural Catastrophes in 2019 3 Latin America and the Caribbean – was nat cat the main loss driver for the region in 2019? In the Latin America and Caribbean region, the losses and impacts of natural catastrophes have been particularly low in 2019. The largest insured losses for 2019 may not be from natural catastrophes but from political risks generating significant losses to local cedants as cover is included in many property programs. Hurricane Dorian was the only notable cyclone of the season to impact the Latin America and Caribbean region. The Category 5 hurricane hit the Bahamas with Figure 4. Hurricane Dorian’s path across