July 2020

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: The Council’s Scorecard in the First Six Months of Germany has the presidency of the Security At least four adoptions are scheduled in July. 2020 Council in July. While the Security Council is The Council is expected to renew the mandate 3 Status Update since our expected to continue to work largely remotely, of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah June Forecast Germany appears keen to have some meetings in Agreement (UNMHA), which expires on 15 July. 6 Israel/Palestine the Council chamber if circumstances allow. An adoption is also expected to renew the 2127 7 Pandemics and There are five open debates planned for July. Central African Republic sanctions regime and Security During this period of remote meetings, open the mandate of its Panel of Experts. The man- debates have been held as open videoconferences date of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus 9 UNRCCA (Central Asia) Cyprus (VTCs), and statements by non-Council mem- (UNFICYP) is expected to be renewed before the 10 Peace Operations and bers have been submitted in writing. end of the month. Also expected is the adoption Human Rights Early in the month a high-level open debate of a resolution on small arms, whose draft was 11 Libya on pandemics and security is anticipated. Ger- introduced by Belgium, the Dominican Repub- 13 West Africa and the man Foreign Minisiter Heiko Maas will chair the lic, Germany and Niger and circulated to Coun- Sahel meeting. The anticipated briefers are UN Secre- cil members in June. Meetings may furthermore 14 Yemen tary-General António Guterres, President of the need to be scheduled to vote on draft resolutions 16 Colombia International Committee of the Red Cross Peter re-authorising the cross-border/cross-line aid Maurer, and Amira Elfadil Mohammed Elfadil, delivery in Syria and climate and security. 17 Syria Commissioner for Social Affairs of the AU. Regarding Middle East issues, on Syria open 19 Cyprus A high-level open debate is also planned to dis- and closed VTCs on the political and humani- 20 Climate and Security cuss peacekeeping and human rights. Annegret tarian situation and a closed VTC on the use 21 Women, Peace and Kramp-Karrenbauer, German Federal Minister of chemical weapons are anticipated. Open and Security of Defence, will chair the meeting. High Com- closed VTCs on developments in Yemen are also 23 Central African missioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet, planned. Republic Special Representative for South Sudan and head On African issues, there will be open and of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) closed VTCs on Libya as well as on Libya sanc- David Shearer, and a civil society representative tions. Open and closed VTCs will also be held are expected to brief. on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on Germany also plans to hold a ministerial-level West Africa and the Sahel. open debate on climate and security in late July. Members will receive the quarterly briefing on The annual open debate on conflict-related sexual developments in Colombia in an open VTC, fol- violence will also be held in July at ministerial level, lowed by a closed VTC discussion. focusing on accountability and the implementa- Ahead of the renewal of UNFICYP’s man- tion of a survivor-centred approach. The Special date, members will be briefed in a closed VTC on Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, recent developments in Cyprus. Pramila Patten, is expected to brief together with The semi-annual briefing on theUN Regional a civil society representative. Finally, there will be Center for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia’s the regular quarterly open debate on the situa- activities will take place in a closed VTC. tion in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Members will be watching developments in question, with Special Coordinator for the Middle Myanmar, Iran and Afghanistan as well as on the 30 June 2020 East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov expected Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and addition- This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. to brief. al meetings may be added if necessary.

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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Council’s Scorecard in the First Six Months of 2020

It has not been business as usual for the March, two subsidiary body briefings, on One drawback of the virtual meetings Security Council in the first six months of South Sudan sanctions and the 1540 Com- being considered as unofficial meetings is 2020. Since mid-March, the suspension of mittee dealing with non-proliferation, did not how to conduct a procedural vote, as these in-person Council meetings has required take place. The chairs of these committees, are conducted in formal meetings. Members unexpected decisions and drastic changes. Estonia and Indonesia, respectively, instead have found ways to have the necessary dis- The restrictions on conducting its business in circulated written statements, with Council cussions on new issues such as Hong Kong the Council chamber have pushed the body members also able to submit their statements and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. to find new ways to carry out its mandate of in writing. Adding a new issue to the Council’s agenda, maintaining international peace and security. By the end of June, VTCs had replicat- however, requires a formal meeting, of which It has required applying the Charter and the ed almost all the regular Council formats. there are currently none. rules of procedure to completely new terri- However, there were missing elements. The tory and immersion into the use of technol- lack of interpretation led Council members Meetings Hold Steady, Hours Drop ogy new to most members. to decide to conduct meetings in English. The overall number of meetings fell from 196 Frustrated with not having multilingual formal meetings and consultations in the first Adapting to a New Working Environment options, France, as president in June, chose six months of 2019 to 182 formal meetings, After an initial period of what appeared to to conduct meetings and deliver statements consultations and VTCs in the correspond- be paralysis in mid-March, the Council has in French. Russia followed suit by deliver- ing period in 2020. This is largely attribut- progressively moved closer to operating as it ing some statements in Russian, followed by able to the Council’s not having met at all would normally. China, as the president in English. There is also no provision for mem- from 13 through 23 March, leaving it with 20 March, was faced with developing the ini- bers to deliver an explanation of vote during meetings (including VTCs) in March 2020 tial provisional measures, which have been adoptions. Although members can provide compared to 31 meetings in March 2019. For expanded by the Dominican Republic and a written explanation of vote following an the remainder of this period, the number of Estonia during their subsequent presidencies. adoption, this is seen as a poor substitute meetings this year is comparable to 2019, and Starting with remote meetings described as for being able to publicly express their views occasionally higher. closed videoconferences (VTCs), the Coun- in the Council chamber. As agreed in late Time spent in meetings has decreased in cil now holds open VTCs that are webcast, as March, resolutions are adopted through a 2020. In the first six months, the Council are the virtual open debates. These remote 24-hour written procedure and presidential spent 276.4 hours in meetings, with 147.7 formats use an in-house platform that allows statements through electronic agreement. of those hours in VTCs. At the six-month all Council members, as well as the Director Results are announced by the Council pres- mark in 2019, the Council had spent 360.3 of SCAD and briefers, to see each other on ident in a VTC, with members present but hours in public meetings and consultations. a single computer screen. In the virtual ver- not speaking. Not having the wider mem- This decrease can be attributed to a num- sion of open debates, states not members of bership participate live in the open debate ber of factors, including the seven working the Council take part by submitting written format is also seen as a drawback. days spent without meetings and the rela- statements that are subsequently published An unexpected bonus of conducting busi- tive brevity of the virtual version of open as a letter from the president of the Council. ness via VTC is the ease with which high- debates. Council open debates often last This format has also maintained the possibil- level representatives are able to participate. six hours or more, whereas the open VTC ity for civil society briefers to participate. The This has encouraged high-level participa- format, which does not include the spoken webcasts of the open VTCs, the written record tion in several meetings, including the pro- participation of the wider membership, has of the briefings and statements, and outcomes tection of civilians meeting in May and the tended to last about two hours. Some antici- of meetings are kept on the Security Coun- Middle East and Mali open VTCs in June. pated open debates have been postponed, as cil’s website under a new category labelled Members have also used the Arria-formula in the case of women, peace and security, or “Covid-19 related”. During this period of and informal interactive dialogue formats have been held as Arria-formula meetings. virtual meetings, more members are sharing creatively during this period. Both allow for In addition, at least one open debate—on their statements on their websites and through participation by a wider range of parties than multilateralism—that had been anticipated social media, including statements made in the “open VTC” format. The first high-level during China’s presidency in March was not closed VTCs. In March, when meetings were Arria-formula meeting, on the 75th anniver- held as the Council had not yet decided on not webcast, Council members made a con- sary of the end of World War II on European meeting modalities. certed effort to adopt press elements to pro- soil, was organised by Estonia during its May (Please see SCAD’s “The Monthly High- vide some information on Council activity. presidency, with 45 out of 76 participating lights of Security Council Practice” for more This practice has continued for some closed members represented at foreign minister level details on these statistics.) VTCs, with the press elements communicated or above. Difficulty getting agreement on a by the Council president in a virtual stakeout. briefer for a meeting on Syria chemical weap- Essential Business Continues By April, subsidiary bodies had established ons in May led to the meeting being held as Despite a more cumbersome adoption pro- ways of getting their work done through vir- an informal interactive dialogue session with cess, the Council has generally been able to tual meetings and written statements. In the suggested briefer. adopt decisions that were needed to renew

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 In Hindsight: The Council’s Scorecard in the First Six Months of 2020 mission mandates and sanctions regimes. of the Council during this period, its inability instrumental in getting the Secretary-General The number of decisions over this period to adopt any product on COVID-19 was par- to brief on COVID-19 in early April, but the is almost exactly the same as in 2019.The ticularly striking. letter requesting the meeting was only signed Council adopted 33 decisions (resolutions by nine of the ten elected members as South and presidential statements) in the first half Council Dynamics Africa declined to do so. of 2020. Over the same period in 2019, the The existing divisions among Council mem- Sub-groups of Council members contin- Council adopted 34 decisions. The Council bers may have made it harder to reach deci- ued to be visible during this period. The Afri- adopted six presidential statements during sions in a virtual environment. While the can members (A3), joined by Saint Vincent this period, one more than in 2019. The num- Council has been able to get its work done and the Grenadines, have regularly taken ber of resolutions fell slightly from 29 to 27. during this period, often agreement required joint positions. In a briefing on Somalia in It was clear from the start that 2020 was protracted negotiations, at times on issues February, South Africa spoke on behalf of not going to be an easy year for consensus that appeared peripheral. New stress points this group. The EU members, at times join- in the Council, for reasons unrelated to emerged with this pandemic. The relation- ing with past EU members and on one occa- COVID-19. The first resolution adopted ship between the US and China deteriorated sion with the incoming members, have held (S/RES/2504) was on the cross-border and against the backdrop of the US position on 11 joint virtual stakeouts on a range of topics, cross-line delivery of humanitarian aid in the origin of the coronavirus and its criticism including the Middle East, Myanmar, Syria Syria, which had 11 votes in favour and four of the World Health Organization. There has chemical weapons, Ukraine, and Venezuela. abstentions. In February, two other resolu- been no improvement in relations between Council members have expressed frustra- tions—on Libya and Yemen sanctions—also the US and Russia, reducing the prospects tion with some of the limitations of virtual failed to be adopted unanimously. During the of substantive Council action on such issues negotiations. They note that the virtual plat- period of working remotely, the Council has as Syria and Venezuela. The US position on form makes it difficult to read body language been able to adopt 13 resolutions, with only several matters has hardened, making it dif- and to have the sort of quiet corridor con- two that were not unanimous—one on South ficult to include language in outcomes on cli- versations that may help during an impasse. Sudan sanctions and another on the Inter- mate change, aspects of the women, peace There might also be less sense of pressure national Residual Mechanism for Criminal and security agenda, and the ICC. to compromise when not faced with 14 oth- Tribunals. This may have been partly due to The ten elected members (E10) con- er members in the same room. Members a willingness to have short rollovers in order tinue to meet regularly as a group and with acknowledge that security concerns might to take the time to obtain consensus, as was the Secretary-General. However, the E10, make for less frank discussions on a virtual done when renewing the UN/AU Hybrid too, have had greater difficulty finding -com platform. Developing relationships and build- Operation in Darfur, or to delay a decision, mon ground on issues upon which they were ing trust, essential tools in a diplomat’s arsenal, as with the March and June adoptions on the once in agreement, such as the humanitar- are much more difficult in the virtual world. UN Mission in Somalia. In assessing the work ian situation in Syria. Elected members were

Status Update since our June Forecast

Tribunals Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), assessing, among other things, “the impact On 3 June, the president of the International the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) of the peace process on the security situation Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals, and the UN Disengagement Observer Force in Darfur, the capacity of the Government Judge Carmel Agius, and its prosecutor, Serge (UNDOF). The commanders briefed the of Sudan… to protect civilians in line with Brammertz, met remotely with the Informal Council on the operational challenges their the strategy outlined in the Government of Working Group on International Tribunals. On respective missions face in their work, focus- Sudan’s letter addressed to the President of 8 June, they briefed Security Council members ing primarily on the impact of COVID-19. the Security Council dated 21 May 2020, in an open VTC (S/2020/527). On 25 June, and recommendations on the appropriate Council members adopted resolution 2529 Sudan (Darfur) course of action regarding the drawdown of extending the operating period and the term of On 4 June, the Security Council adopted two UNAMID, taking into account the impact of the prosecutor until 30 June 2022 (S/2020/602). resolutions related to Sudan (S/2020/496 and the COVID-19 pandemic”. Resolution 2524 Resolution 2529 was adopted with 14 votes in S/2020/497). Resolution 2525 extended the established a follow-on mission, the UN favour and one abstention (by Russia). mandate of UNAMID at its current troop Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in and police ceiling for two months from 31 Sudan (UNITAMS) and requested the Sec- UN Peacekeeping Operations October until 31 December 2020. The res- retary-General to “swiftly initiate the plan- On 4 June, Security Council members held an olution also requests the Secretary-General ning for and establishment of UNITAMS, open VTC meeting (S/2020/514) with force and the Chairperson of the AU Commission with a view to reaching full operational capac- commanders of UN peacekeeping operations to provide the Security Council with a Spe- ity as soon as possible and in order to ensure from the UN Multidimensional Integrated cial Report no later than 31 October 2020, the mission is able to start delivering against

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our June Forecast all its strategic objectives no later than 1 Jan- Mali Security Council Elections uary 2021”. Both resolutions were adopted On 11 June, Council members held a minis- On 17 June, the UN General Assembly held unanimously. On 9 June, the chair of the terial-level VTC on Mali (S/2020/541). Sec- the first round elections for the five non-per- 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, Ambas- retary General António Guterres briefed on manent seats on the Security Council for the sador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia), provided the his quarterly report on Mali (S/2020/476) 2021-2022 term. India, Ireland, Mexico, and Council the quarterly briefing on the com- and biannual letter outlining security chal- Norway were elected in the first round of vot- mittee’s work in an open VTC format. On lenges, MINUSMA performance, and tran- ing. Kenya was elected in the second round 10 June, the Prosecutor of the International sition planning (S/2020/481). Pierre Buy- of voting, defeating Djibouti for a single seat Criminal Court, Fatou Bensouda, briefed oya, AU High Representative for Mali and available for African Group. the Council on her semi-annual report to the the Sahel, also briefed. On 14 June, mem- Council. Bensouda’s briefing came the day bers issued a press statement condemning Terrorism after Ali Kushayb, a Sudanese national who an attack the day before on a MINSUMA On 18 June, a joint briefing of the 1373 is wanted for war crimes and crimes against convoy that killed two peacekeepers from Counter-Terrorism Committee and the humanity allegedly committed in Darfur Egypt (SC/14213). On 29 June, in resolution 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al- (Sudan), surrendered himself voluntarily in 2531, the Council renewed the mandate of Qaida Sanctions Committee was held in a the Central African Republic. MINUSMA for one year until 30 June 2021. closed VTC. It focused on a joint report by the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive G5-Sahel Joint Force UNOCA/LRA Directorate and the Analytical Support and On 5 June, Security Council members held On 12 June, Security Council members held Monitoring Team on the financing of terror- an open VTC, followed by a closed VTC, on an open VTC (S/2020/542), followed by a ism (S/2020/493). the Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force closed VTC, on the Secretary-General’s (FC-G5S) (S/2020/515). Under-Secretary- semi-annual report on the work of UNOCA Briefing by the UN High Commissioner General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre and the implementation of the UN’s region- for Refugees Lacroix and Minister for Foreign Affairs al strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance On 18 June, Council members held an open and International Cooperation Ismael Ould Army (S/2020/542). Special Representative VTC meeting (S/2020/560), followed by a Cheikh Ahmed of Mauritania on behalf of the and head of UNOCA François Louncény closed VTC session, with UN High Com- Group of Five for the Sahel briefed Council Fall briefed. Fall noted that terrorist attacks, missioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi. The members. In press elements after the meet- maritime insecurity and political tensions meeting took place under the agenda item ing, Council members commended the FC- in the region have been exacerbated by the “Briefing by the United Nations High Com- G5S for its increased operational tempo, reaf- COVID-19 pandemic. He noted that “the missioner for Refugees”, which allows for a firmed the importance of support by the UN slowdown in economic activities due to general briefing by the High Commissioner Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization COVID-19 deprives States of the resourc- without tying it to a specific situation on the Mission in Mali to the joint force, and took es they need to address the socioeconomic Council agenda. Grandi described the situ- note of the Secretary-General’s assessment impact of the pandemic, with the risk of cre- ation of refugees in several country-specific on the matter in his recent report on Mali ating social unrest”, while “the persistence cases on the Council’s agenda, including Lib- (S/2020/476). In renewing the mandate of of armed conflicts in some parts of Central ya, Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela, among MINUSMA on 29 June, in resolution 2531, Africa undermines our efforts to respond to others, and addressed the impact of the the Council specified that private companies challenges posed by COVID-19”. COVID-19 pandemic on refugee populations. may deliver MINUSMA life support consum- ables (rations and fuel) to FC-G5S units oper- Iraq Haiti ating outside of Mali. On 15 June, Security Council mem- On 19 June Council members held open bers received a briefing in an open VTC and closed VTCs on BINUH (S/2020/568). Somalia (S/2020/547) from Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, Special Representative of the Secretary- On 9 June, Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de the Special Adviser and head of UNITAD, General Helen La Lime briefed. Jacques Buytswerve (Belgium), chair of the 751 Soma- based on the Special Adviser’s fourth report Létang, President of the Haitian Bar Fed- lia Sanctions Committee, briefed Council on the activities of UNITAD (S/2020/386). A eration and member of the Human Rights members in an open VTC on the commit- closed VTC followed. Office in Haiti, also spoke, detailing the lack tee’s activities from 28 February to 9 June of state authority throughout Haiti. Coun- (S/2020/529). He highlighted al-Shabaab’s UNDOF (Golan Heights) cil members agreed to press elements that increased use of improvised explosive devices On 15 June, Security Council members were read out by the Council president after in Somalia, and their devastating effect. On 22 held a closed VTC with troop contributing the meeting. The elements noted the impact June, Council members renewed the mandate countries of UNDOF. On 18 June, Coun- of COVID-19, the troubling humanitarian of UNSOM until 31 August 2020 through a cil members held a closed VTC on UNDOF. situation, and the need for Haiti’s political technical rollover (S/2020/573). Resolution On 29 June, the Council adopted resolution actors to work together to address underly- 2527 passed unanimously through the Coun- 2530, renewing UNDOF’s mandate until 31 ing conditions. cil’s provisional 24-hour voting period. December 2020.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Status Update since our June Forecast

Burundi Working Group on Children and Armed Con- statement in which they reaffirmed the UN’s On 22 June, the Security Council convened flict, which were established by resolution 1612 role in promoting peace in Afghanistan and a closed VTC meeting on Burundi. Assistant (2005), noting the contribution of these tools to welcomed regional and international efforts Secretary-General for Africa Bintou Keita the children and armed conflict agenda in the to facilitate intra-Afghan negotiations. Coun- briefed. The Council was expected to meet on past 15 years, including through the demobili- cil members welcomed the steps taken by Burundi in May, in keeping with the quarterly sation and reintegration of more than 150,000 the Afghan government and the Taliban to briefings on the issue requested by resolution children. Council members also reiterated their move towards negotiations, including the 2303. That meeting was not scheduled, how- call to member states and the UN system to partial implementation of the commitments ever, and the decision was taken to postpone mainstream child protection provisions into all to release prisoners, and called for the swift it until after Burundi’s presidential elections, relevant activities in conflict prevention, con- release of remaining prisoners and a reduc- which were held on 20 May. A meeting was flict and post-conflict situations. France circu- tion of violence to facilitate the commence- then scheduled to take place on 11 June, but lated a concept note ahead of the meeting. ment of direct talks. They further called for with the sudden death of outgoing President inclusive and meaningful peace negotiations Pierre Nkurunziza, it was postponed until 22 Democratic Republic of the Congo with the participation of women and youth, June. The Council agreed press elements, tak- On 23 June, Council members issued a press while emphasizing that “gains made in the ing note of the final results of the presiden- statement in which they condemned an attack last 19 years, including in the field of human tial and legislative elections and the “peaceful on MONUSCO that occurred on 22 June rights, especially the rights of women, chil- transition of power” after the sudden death of near Beni, which resulted in the death of one dren and minorities, must be protected and President Nkurunziza”. Further, the Council Indonesian peacekeeper and injuries to another built upon”. Members of the Security Coun- “stressed the importance of pursuing national (SC/14222). This attack was on many Council cil reaffirmed the importance of the Secretary- unity, political inclusiveness and peacebuilding members’ minds during the Council open VTC General’s call for a comprehensive ceasefire and encouraged all parties to continue to pro- on MONUSCO on 25 June (S/2020/598). in Afghanistan and expressed concern over mote a peaceful atmosphere among all Burun- Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- the recent increase in violence in the country, dians”. Finally, the Council “welcomed the eral Leila Zerrougui and the coordinator of while strongly condemning the 27 June killing commitment of the UN towards long-term sta- the organisation Save Act Mine, Jamal Usse- of two AIHRC employees in Kabul. bility and sustainable development in Burundi”. ni, briefed Council members. After the closed VTC meeting, the Council president read out Peace and Security in Africa South Sudan agreed press elements in which Council mem- On 29 June, Council members held an open On 23 June, Council members held an open bers expressed their concern for the deterio- VTC to discuss ongoing negotiations between VTC, followed by a closed VTC, on South rating human rights and security situation in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on the operation Sudan (S/2020/582) covering the Secre- eastern DRC. Additionally, the press elements of the nearly-completed Grand Ethiopian tary-General’s latest report on this issue touch on the ongoing discussions between the Renaissance Dam on the Nile. This meeting (S/2020/536). David Shearer, the Special government and MONUSCO on the transition came after a discussion under “any other busi- Representative of the Secretary-General and compact for MONUSCO’s exit “and called ness” was held on 22 June due to an Egyptian head of UNMISS, and Edmund Yakani, Exec- for further consultations ahead of the report letter calling for the Council to discuss the utive Director of the Community Empower- expected on 20 October”. The elements also issue under article 35 of the UN Charter. ment for Progress Organization, briefed. call on MONUSCO to improve its overall effi- ciency. On 25 June, the Council unanimously Iran non-proliferation Children and Armed Conflict adopted resolution 2528 which renewed the On 30 June, the Council held its semi-annual On 23 June, Security Council members held DRC sanctions regime until 1 July 2021. Also briefing, in an open VTC, on the implemen- an open VTC meeting on Children and Armed on 25 July, WHO declared the Ebola outbreak, tation of resolution 2231, which endorsed the Conflict (S/2020/594). Special Representa- which started in August 2018, over in the DRC. Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) tive for Children and Armed Conflict Virgin- This outbreak killed more than 2,280 people. on Iran’s nuclear programme. Under-Secre- ia Gamba presented the Secretary-General’s tary-General for Political and Peacebuilding annual report, which was published on 9 June Afghanistan Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo presented the lat- (S/2020/525). The Executive Director of UNI- On 25 June, Council members held an open est Secretary-General’s report on the imple- CEF, Henrietta Fore, and Mariam, a young VTC meeting, followed by a closed VTC mentation of resolution 2231. The Council’s civil society representative from the National session, on the situation in Afghanistan. facilitator for the implementation of resolu- Children’s Parliament of Mali, also briefed the Deborah Lyons, Special Representative for tion 2231, Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de Council. Following the meeting, members of Afghanistan and head of UNAMA, briefed Buytswerve (Belgium), briefed on the work the Security Council issued a press statement on recent developments and the Secretary- of the Council related to resolution 2231, and (SC/14224) in which they condemned the General’s 17 June report on UNAMA. Ghada the Head of the EU delegation, Olof Skoog, scale of violations against children in armed Fathi Waly, Executive Director of UNODC, briefed on the work of the JCPOA’s Joint conflict and expressed concern regarding the and Shaharzad Akbar, chairperson of the Commission. Secretary-General António effect on children of the COVID-19 pandemic. Afghan Independent Human Rights Com- Guterres, US Secretary of State Mike Pom- They welcomed the work of the UN-led Mon- mission (AIHRC), also briefed the Council. peo and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif itoring and Reporting Mechanism and the On 30 June, Council members issued a press also participated in the meeting.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

Expected Council Action negotiations and threaten efforts to advance Aboul Gheit briefed. All three emphasised In July, the Security Council is scheduled to regional peace and…broader efforts at main- that annexation by Israel of parts of the hold its quarterly open debate on “the situa- taining international peace and security”. West Bank would have grave consequences. tion in the Middle East, including the Pales- The Jerusalem District Planning Commit- Guterres said that it “would…grievously tinian question”. Special Coordinator for the tee approved the construction of as many as harm the prospect of a two-State solution Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov 2,200 housing units in occupied East Jerusa- and undercut the possibilities of a renewal of is expected to brief. With the extraordinary and lem’s Har Homa settlement on 26 May. The negotiations”. Mladenov stated that it “may provisional measures implemented in response Secretary-General’s recent report on the kill the very idea that peace and statehood to the COVID-19 pandemic likely still to be implementation of resolution 2334 main- for the Palestinian people can be achieved in place, the debate is likely to be held as an tained that this expansion and the envisioned through negotiations”. And Gheit declared open videoconference (VTC) with statements “construction of 3,000 housing units in the that it would “destroy any prospect for peace” by non-Council members submitted in writing. Giva Hamatos settlement…would further and seriously threaten regional stability. consolidate the ring of settlements around Key Recent Developments Jerusalem’s southern perimeter, separating Human Rights-Related Developments On 17 May, citing the need for national unity the Palestinian areas of the city from Bethle- On 15 June, the Human Rights Council (HRC) concluded its general debate on the human rights in light of the COVID-19 outbreak, Israeli hem and the southern West Bank”. situation in Palestine and other occupied Arab Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his The security situation in the Gaza Strip territories. UN High Commissioner for Human political rival, Benny Gantz, launched a coali- has generally been calm in recent months, Rights Michelle Bachelet presented four reports tion government, following three inconclusive although some incidents have been report- concerning the human rights situation in Pales- elections that began in April 2019. Under the ed. On 6 May, Palestinian militants fired two tine. She emphasised that the reports showed the “persistence of human rights violations in the terms of the coalition deal signed by the two rockets into Israel from Gaza. Palestinian mil- occupied Palestinian territory and in the occupied leaders, the government will be able to decide itants have also resumed launching incendiary Syrian Golan” and expressed concern regarding as early as 1 July on whether to annex parts of devices into Israel since mid-May. No casual- the “excessive force used by Israeli forces and the West Bank. The terms of the agreement ties have been reported from these incidents. the heavy burden placed on the already impov- stipulate that the decision on annexation— Difficult sanitary conditions in the densely erished community and overstretched health facilities and social services in Gaza”. On 16 which Gantz does not have the authority to populated Gaza Strip raise concerns about June, a group of HRC special procedures man- block—will be made in “full agreement with the potentially devastating humanitarian date holders issued a statement raising concerns the United States and with international dis- and economic impacts of a wider outbreak about the agreement by the new Israeli coalition cussions on the subject”. At press time, sev- of COVID-19 in the area. As of 19 June, 72 government to annex parts of the occupied Pal- eral aspects of the government’s approach cases of COVID-19 and one death as a result estinian West Bank. The statement stressed that to this issue were still unclear, including the of the disease have been reported in Gaza. the “annexation of occupied territory is a serious violation of the Charter of the United Nations” and precise areas to be annexed and whether the Citing recent surveys, the Secretary-General pointed out that the Security Council “has repeat- process is foreseen in a phased manner. estimates that some “35 percent of indus- edly criticised the Israeli settlements as a flagrant Speaking in Ramallah on 19 May, Pales- trial firms in Gaza have ceased their operat- violation under international law”. tinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas ing capacity” and nearly “all restaurants and declared that the Palestinian leadership hotels have ceased operations” as a result of Women, Peace and Security would be absolved from security and other the virus. This has resulted in thousands of Developments agreements with Israel and the US in light of people losing their jobs in a place where the In his 20 May briefing to the Council, Mladenov quoted from the Secretary-General’s 9 April policy the Israeli government’s threat to annex parts unemployment rate was already 45 percent in brief on “The Impact of COVID-19 on Women”: “[a] of the West Bank. Subsequently, the Pales- 2019. The UN Relief and Works Agency for cross every sphere, from health to the economy, tinian Authority withdrew some of its forces Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) has taken a security to social protection, the impacts of COV- from Abu Dis, indicated that it was ending number of measures to curtail the spread of ID-19 are exacerbated for women and girls simply its intelligence cooperation with the United the virus in the Occupied Palestinian territo- by virtue of their sex”. Mladenov added that UN Women had recently reported that the pandemic States, and declared that it would no longer ries, including closing schools and providing was disproportionally affecting Palestinian girls accept taxes collected for it by Israel. medical advice to patients whose condition and women. He further said that inequalities in the Mladenov briefed Council members on 20 is less severe by phone rather than in person. economic sphere are expected to widen due to May in an open VTC session, which was fol- On 24 June, the Council held its month- the creation and exacerbation of pre-existing vul- lowed by a closed VTC. He said that Israel’s ly meeting on “The situation in the Middle nerabilities and gender-specific risks. Mladenov showed continued concern over an increase in annexation of parts of the West Bank “would East, including the Palestinian question”. UN gender-based violence, especially when families constitute a most serious violation of interna- Secretary-General António Guterres, Spe- live in small spaces and face growing socioeco- tional law, deal a devastating blow to the two- cial Coordinator Mladenov, and Secretary- nomic pressures. He referred to reports by NGOs state solution, close the door to a renewal of General of the League of Arab States Ahmed in Gaza and the West Bank showing “a rise in cas- es of life-threatening incidents of gender-based

UN DOCUMENTS ON ISRAEL/PALESTINE Security Council Resolution S/RES/2334 (23 December 2016) reaffirmed that the establishment of Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967 has “no legal validity” and condemned “all acts of violence against civilians, including acts of terror”. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/555 (18 June 2020) was a report on the implementation of resolution 2334. Security Council Letters S/2020/430 (22 May 2020) was a record of the open VTC on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” on 20 May.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

violence”. This challenge is aggravated by an civilian settlements in the West Bank is not, per Council and Wider Dynamics ongoing lack of shelters, protection and referral se, inconsistent with international law”. Strong criticism of potential annexation of services, according to Mladenov. Another important issue for the Council is parts of the West Bank has been widely voiced what role it can play in resurrecting the peace both in and out of the Council, and such views Key Issues and Options process between Israel and the Palestinians, are likely to be reiterated during the July meet- A key issue for the Council is how to address given the widespread rejection of the US peace ing. The League of Arab States, the Organiza- the potential annexation of parts of the West proposal earlier this year, including by the Pal- tion of Islamic Cooperation, EU High Rep- Bank by Israel—a step that the UN and nearly estinians. One option that has been proposed resentative for Foreign Affairs and Security all members of the Council would consider by a number of Council members—and could Policy Josep Borrell, many EU member states, illegal under international law and a major be further explored this month—has been to and many UN Security Council members blow to the two-state solution. Given US sup- revitalise the Middle East Quartet, which con- have rejected the US “Vision for Peace”— port for the Israeli government, a formal out- sists of the EU, Russia, the UN, and the US. which envisions the incorporation into the come critical of such a move would be highly Given the ongoing humanitarian needs fac- state of Israel of existing Israeli settlements unlikely at present. Instead, different groups of ing Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and in the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley members—for example, those Security Coun- elsewhere—which are likely to be exacerbated and East Jerusalem. The US maintains that its cil members representing the EU, the AU or by the coronavirus—members may choose peace plan should be viewed as a starting point the Arab League—could issue joint statements to appeal for enhanced financial support for for negotiations; at the 24 June Council meet- in advance of the monthly debate expressing UNWRA. In this regard, an UNWRA pledging ing, US Ambassador Kelly Craft asserted that their positions. As for recent precedent, the EU conference, chaired by Jordan and Sweden, was the plan “is designed to lead the sides to a real- members of the Council issued a joint state- held virtually on 23 June, resulting in pledges istic two-state solution, offering a viable path ment critical of Israeli settlement activity in amounting to approximately $130 million. Ful- to Palestinian statehood”. At the same meeting, November 2019, shortly after US Secretary filment of these pledges will help to partially Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon accused the of State Mike Pompeo broke with past US cover UNWRA’s $400 million funding gap. Palestinians of choosing “rejectionism over any policy, saying that “the establishment of Israeli realistic solution” to the conflict.

Pandemics and Security

Expected Council Action identified in China in late 2019, had expand- On 2 April, the General Assembly adopt- In July, the Council will hold an open debate ed 13-fold and the number of affected coun- ed a resolution, co-sponsored by 188 coun- on the peace and security implications of tries had tripled, with 118,000 cases in 114 tries, that emphasised the importance of pandemics and international health crises. countries and over 4,000 deaths, according global solidarity in fighting the disease. The German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas will to the WHO. With New York City becoming resolution acknowledged the “crucial role chair the session. Secretary-General António a new epicentre of the pandemic, UN head- played by the World Health Organization”, Guterres, International Committee of the quarters closed down from 16 March (other expressed “strong support for the central role Red Cross President Peter Maurer, and AU than for essential services), and over the next of the United Nations system in the global Commissioner for Social Affairs Amira Elf- two weeks, the Security Council adapted its response”, and called for “intensified inter- adil Mohammed Elfadil are the likely briefers. working methods to hold meetings remotely. national cooperation to contain, mitigate and Because the measures introduced in response On 23 March, the Secretary-General defeat the pandemic”. to the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to still called for an immediate global ceasefire to The Security Council, for its part, has be in place, the debate is expected to be held fight the COVID-19 pandemic. He highlight- come under widespread criticism over its as an open videoconference (VTC) and state- ed the particular challenges posed by the pan- inability to address the crisis. As early as 18 ments by non-Council members are expected demic to conflict-affected countries where March, Estonia proposed a Council press to be submitted in writing. “health systems have collapsed”, “health pro- statement on the pandemic. At the time, some fessionals are few in number and have often members questioned the pandemic’s link to Key Recent Developments been targeted”, and refugees and displaced international peace and security and felt that On 11 March, the World Health Organiza- persons are “doubly vulnerable”. The appeal some of the statement’s contents went beyond tion (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global received some initial positive responses, with the Council’s mandate. It was also around pandemic. In the two weeks before the dec- armed groups in a number of countries com- this time that France initiated high-level dis- laration, cases of COVID-19, which was first mitting themselves to ceasefires. cussions among the P5 on a draft resolution,

UN DOCUMENTS ON COVID-19 General Assembly Document A/RES/74/270 (2 April 2020) reaffirmed the General Assembly’s “commitment to international cooperation and multi- lateralism and its strong support for the central role of the UN system in the global response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic”.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Pandemics and Security which soon stalled over US-China divisions By the time of the 14 April announce- the Democratic Republic of the Congo are on identifying the origins and name of the ment, negotiations on the respective P5 and another issue for consideration. virus and describing early responses. By the E10 draft resolutions had largely concluded, As this issue went to press, it appeared like- end of March, Tunisia proposed a draft reso- and France and Tunisia proceeded to merge ly that the Council would adopt the French- lution to the Council’s ten elected members, the drafts into a single text, which they pre- Tunisian draft resolution that demands a gen- which, similarly to the draft being negotiated sented to Council members during a 23 April eral and immediate cessation of hostilities in all by the P5, would express support for the Sec- closed VTC. But negotiations were then sty- situations on its agenda and calls for all parties retary-General’s ceasefire appeal. mied over whether to mention the WHO in to engage in an immediate humanitarian pause As the negotiation processes continued on the resolution: the US opposed any such ref- for at least 90 days. An option, if an agreement the two resolutions, Council members held erence, while China insisted on it. On 7 May, remains elusive, could be a shorter resolution a closed VTC on 9 April with the Secretary- the co-penholders placed the draft resolution or presidential statement narrowly focused on General on COVID-19’s “impact on Council under silence procedure, believing that they just those elements directly related to the Sec- agenda situations”, including peace operations, had found compromise language by replac- retary-General’s ceasefire appeal, while another humanitarian crises, and the Secretary-Gener- ing an explicit reference to the WHO with option is to table the draft resolution, compel- al’s ceasefire appeal. Guterres told members a reference to the “United Nations system, ling members to decide how to vote. that beyond being a health crisis with social including specialized health agencies”. The and economic impact, “the pandemic also US broke the silence over this issue, however, Council Dynamics poses a significant threat to the maintenance and during the second half of June, France Negotiations on the COVID-19 draft resolu- of international peace and security”. and Tunisia began a new push to find a com- tion have pitted the US against China. US Guterres outlined eight particular threats promise on the WHO issue. criticism and rhetoric about China over the posed by the pandemic. They included the While the Council has yet to collectively pandemic, amid the major US outbreak, have potential for the pandemic to create discontent pronounce itself on the pandemic, members exacerbated tensions between the countries. with public institutions, particularly if citizens have discussed the impact of COVID-19 in China’s insistence on referring to the WHO— perceive that authorities were mishandling the nearly all its country-specific and thematic which has been mentioned in other Council response or were not being transparent about meetings. Press elements following such ses- resolutions on HIV/AIDS and Ebola—has at the scope of the crisis, and for the economic sions have addressed different dimensions of times been supported by developing countries fallout to create “major stressors”, especially the pandemic in the particular context–-such on the Council that are more reliant on the in fragile and less developed countries. The as calling for cooperation between UN peace UN agency. (For more on the Council’s reac- postponement of elections or referenda or the operations and host governments to contain tions to other health crises, see “International decision to proceed with a vote “can create the disease, expressing concern about the Peace and Security, and Pandemics: Security political tensions and undermine legitimacy”, health and safety of peacekeepers, and call- Council Precedents and Options”: What’s in the Secretary-General’s statement notes. ing for ceasefires or for conflict parties to de- Blue, 5 April 2020.) Other threats, according to Guterres, are escalate in line with the Secretary-General’s Securing a Council resolution has been that actors in conflict settings could use the ceasefire appeal. important for France. President Emmanuel uncertainty created by the crisis to promote Macron started the initiative and has sought further division and turmoil, that terrorist Key Issues and Options to organise a P5 summit to agree on a com- groups could exploit the health crisis, that the The open debate is meant to consider and mon approach to the pandemic. Several elect- risk of bioterror attacks could increase, that promote greater understanding of the peace ed members have also been keen to see the the pandemic could stall peace processes or and security implications of international Council address the pandemic. In addition to impede crisis diplomacy, and that it could trig- health crises and the relevant role of the Secu- Tunisia’s role, the Council’s elected members ger or exacerbate human rights challenges. In rity Council therein, including in conflict pre- (minus South Africa) requested the Coun- a short set of press elements Council mem- vention. It will look to identify “triggers” that cil’s 9 April briefing by the Secretary-General bers expressed “support for all efforts of the can cause a health crisis to become a security on COVID-19, and during the May impasse, Secretary-General concerning the potential crisis, such as socio-economic impacts that Estonia and Germany floated the idea of a impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to con- are often root causes of conflict: unemploy- more concise resolution centred on the Sec- flict-affected countries and recalled the need ment, social tensions and stigma, and poor retary-General’s ceasefire call, though this did for unity and solidarity with all those affected”. governance. There is the issue of how pan- not gain traction. Russia and South Africa have On 14 April, US President Donald Trump demics worsen humanitarian crises in conflict at times pushed for the Council to address the announced that the US would halt funding countries; conversely, how violence fosters issue of lifting unilateral sanctions or establish- to the WHO for 60 to 90 days to review the the spread of disease, for example by large ing broader sanctions exemptions to ensure agency’s handling of the coronavirus pandem- movements of people and by hindering coor- effective COVID-19 responses, citing, among ic, which Trump has strongly criticised. Six dinated responses; and their impact on peace other things, the Secretary-General’s appeal at weeks later, Trump announced that the US operations. Lessons from previous health a March G20 summit to waive sanctions that would be terminating its relationship with the crises such as the HIV/AIDS pandemic and can undermine countries’ capacity to respond WHO and ending its funding to the agency. more recent Ebola crises in West Africa and to the pandemic.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 UNRCCA (Central Asia)

Expected Council Action Centre and with the participation of the insti- from the virus as of 25 June. At the time of In July, the Special Representative and head tutes of strategic studies and other state insti- writing, Turkmenistan had not reported any of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive tutions of the Central Asian states. At the cases of the virus. All five countries instituted Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), meeting, Gherman stated that issues related emergency measures to curb the spread of Natalia Gherman, is expected to brief the to violent extremism and terrorism could the virus, including closure of borders and Council in a closed videoconference on become even more pressing in the post-pan- enforcement of lockdowns. UNRCCA’s activities. demic era. She also highlighted the impor- Since Gherman’s last Council briefing, tance of undertaking preventive measures UNRCCA has continued to offer media- Background and Key Recent and planning to address different types of tion support in resolving regional issues. On Developments possible future threats. 1 May, a dam collapsed in the town of Sar- UNRCCA is a special political mission, estab- On 11 June, UNRCCA convened an doba in Uzbekistan, which is located near the lished by the Secretary-General in 2007 for online meeting of the deputy foreign minis- Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan border, leading to at an open-ended period based on a proposal ters of the Central Asian states and Afghani- least four deaths, the displacement of approx- by the five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, stan to discuss regional challenges in the imately 90,000 people, and the destruction of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and context of COVID-19 and ways to address agricultural and residential areas in Uzbeki- Uzbekistan). The centre’s mandate includes them. The pandemic has hit Afghanistan stan and Kazakhstan. UNRCCA expressed a liaison function, monitoring and analysis hard, with 27,878 confirmed cases and 548 its support for the cross-border cooperation of the situation on the ground, maintaining fatalities as of 19 June. The UN Develop- between the countries in mitigating the con- contact with regional organisations, offer- ment Programme has expressed concern sequences of the collapse and reaffirmed the ing a political framework for conflict preven- about the devastating consequences of the UN’s readiness to assist the governments in tion activities of the entire UN system in the virus on Afghanistan’s economy while warn- relief efforts in the area. region, and additionally maintaining contact ing that the pandemic could cause an eco- with the UN Assistance Mission in Afghani- nomic contraction of 4 percent in 2020 and Key Issues and Options stan (UNAMA) to ensure a comprehen- 17 percent by 2023, compared with pre-2019 One of the main issues for the Council is sive overview of the regional situation. The activity. Several central Asian states, such as how to make better use of UNRCCA’s expe- Special Representative reports orally to the Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, have been rience in conflict prevention and what more Council on the centre’s activities twice a year. providing humanitarian support to Afghani- the Council could do to support UNRCCA’s Gherman last briefed Council members stan during the pandemic on a bilateral basis, role in preventive diplomacy and regional in consultations on 22 January. She updated including medical supplies and personal pro- cooperation. members on UNRCCA activities on matters tective equipment. The situation in Afghanistan and its effects pertaining to countering terrorism, trans- At the 11 June meeting, the leaders of the on the Central Asian region is another issue boundary water management, border demar- Central Asian states expressed their support for the Council to consider, as well as how cation, and regional cooperation initiatives for the peace process in Afghanistan while to incorporate the regional impact in its reg- with Afghanistan. In addition, she described echoing the Secretary-General’s call for a ular debates on Afghanistan. In this regard, UNRCCA’s initiatives aimed at empower- global ceasefire. In addition, they discussed the Council may consider inviting Gherman ing women and youth, such as the launch- means to address the socioeconomic impact to occasionally participate in the quarterly ing of the UNRCCA Preventive Diplomacy of the pandemic, including regional measures debates on UNAMA to discuss regional polit- Academy, which brought together young that were part of the Secretary-General’s pol- ical and economic cooperation. In addition, people from the five Central Asian states and icy brief titled “Shared Responsibility, Global Council members may request the Secretary- Afghanistan with the goal of promoting their Solidarity: Responding to the socio-economic General to include in the UNAMA report an role as agents of change in areas that experi- impacts of COVID-19”. In this regard, the integrated analysis of regional impacts of the ence inter-ethnic tensions. leaders discussed initiatives such as promo- situation in Afghanistan using contributions Because of restrictions on travel to curb tion of regional tourism after the pandemic from UNRCCA. the spread of the COVID-19 virus, since and emphasised the importance of embed- A new issue for the Council is how to March UNRCCA has adapted its preven- ding Afghanistan in regional efforts such as mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pan- tive diplomacy activities to an online plat- electricity transmission projects. demic in the region that could affect interna- form, carrying out several meetings aimed at Four out of the five Central Asian states tional peace and security, including second- increasing cooperation to mitigate the effects have confirmed cases of the COVID-19, ary impacts on the socio-economic situation, of the pandemic. On 4 June, UNRCCA con- with Kazakhstan reporting 19,285 cases and on counter-terrorism efforts, and on the vened online regional consultations on the 140 fatalities, Kyrgyzstan reporting 3,954 human rights situation. Some members impact of the pandemic on preventing vio- cases and 43 fatalities, Tajikistan reporting might emphasise the importance of respect- lent extremism and countering terrorism in 5,691 cases and 52 fatalities and Uzbeki- ing the rule of law and regional cooperation cooperation with the UN Counter-Terrorism stan reporting 7,177 cases and 20 fatalities on human rights as well as the need to ensure

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNRCCA Security Council Letter S/2007/279 (7 May 2007) was from the Secretary-General on the establishment of a UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. Security Council Press Statement SC/13179 (25 January 2018) welcomed further cooperation between UNRCCA, the Central Asian States, and relevant regional organisations.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 9 UNRCCA (Central Asia) that efforts to curb the spread of the virus have been unable to agree on a press state- In addition, it appears that in the last do not curtail such civil rights as the right of ment on UNRCCA since January 2018, two semi-annual consultations on UNRC- assembly. owing to disagreements between the pen- CA, several Council members raised issues holder, Russia, and the P3 (France, the UK relating to human rights, with Germany and Council Dynamics and the US) about whether to include ref- the US referring to the situation of Uighur Council members are generally supportive erences to cooperation with the Common- minorities. Other members, including China of the work of UNRCCA and view it as an wealth of Independent States, the Collective and Russia, opposed the statements made important tool in promotion of cooperation Security Treaty Organization, and the Shang- about this issue and said it is unrelated to in Central Asia. However, Council members hai Cooperation Organisation. UNRCCA’s mandate.

Peace Operations and Human Rights

Expected Council Action An appreciation for the relevance of Shared Commitments on UN Peacekeeping As one of the four signature events of its presi- human rights in peacekeeping developed Operations”. The declaration consists of eight dency, Germany is organising an open debate gradually. Though the first human rights thematic areas, four of which explicitly men- on “United Nations peacekeeping operations: component of a peace operation was estab- tion the role of human rights. Peace Operations and Human Rights”. Anne- lished in 1991 as part of the UN Observer First, under the theme “To advance polit- gret Kramp-Karrenbauer, German Federal Mission in El Salvador, human rights compo- ical solutions to conflict and enhance the Minister of Defence, will Chair the meet- nents were rare in peace missions for the next political impact of peacekeeping”, the decla- ing. High Commissioner for Human Rights decade or so. In March 2001, the Council ration notes that member states “affirm that Michelle Bachelet, Special Representative for held a two-day retreat outside of New York the pursuit of sustainable political solutions South Sudan and head of the UN Mission at the initiative of the UK to discuss human should guide the design and deployment of in South Sudan (UNMISS) David Shearer, rights and the work of the Security Council, UN peacekeeping operations, [while] recog- and a civil society representative are expect- focusing on human rights and early warning, nizing that lasting progress in strengthening… ed to brief. An outcome is not anticipated; human rights in peacekeeping operations, human rights needs to occur in parallel”. however, Germany is planning to host a side and human rights in post-conflict situations. In the area of “strengthening the protec- event following the debate to continue the By the time then-Council member Portugal tion provided by peacekeeping operations”, dialogue. Because of extraordinary and pro- organised an Arria-formula meeting over a the declaration “recognize[s] that host states visional measures implemented in response decade later, in February 2012, on the topic bear the primary responsibility to protect to the COVID-19 pandemic, the debate is to of “Human rights in the context of peace- civilians and stress[es] the contribution that be held as an open videoconference (VTC), keeping operations,” most missions had peacekeeping operations, where mandated, and statements by non-Council members are human rights components. can make to international efforts to protect expected to be submitted in writing. Since then, member states have often civilians and to promote and protect human highlighted the importance of human rights rights”, while under the theme “improving Background and Key Recent as a key concept within peacekeeping. This the safety and security of peacekeepers”, Developments was prominently reiterated on 28 March the declaration “commit[s] to support pre- More than half of the current peace missions 2018, when Secretary-General António deployment preparations of personnel and created or authorised by the Security Coun- Guterres highlighted the urgent need for “a capabilities required for effective perfor- cil have human rights tasks in their man- quantum leap in collective engagement” and mance, and the existing human rights screen- dates and include substantive human rights announced the launch of “Action for Peace- ing policy”. capacities or components. Those without a keeping” (A4P), an initiative aimed at renew- Finally, the declaration notes that member human rights component tend to be older ing political commitment to peacekeeping states remain “committed to the implementa- missions with predominantly or exclusively operations. To date, over 150 member states tion of the UN Human Rights Due Diligence military mandates. have endorsed the A4P’s “Declaration of Policy for all UN support to non-UN security

UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACEKEEPING Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2518 (30 March 2020) was on capacity-building and safety and security of peacekeepers. S/RES/2436 (21 September 2018) was on peacekeeping performance. S/RES/693 (20 May 1991) established the first human rights component in a peace operation, the UN Observer Mission in El Salvador. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2019/4 (7 May 2019) was on peacekeeping training and capacity-building. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8612 (9 September 2019) was a debate on peacekeeping reform, which featured a briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Lacroix spoke about the efforts of UN peace operations to help facilitate the pursuit of political solutions, the importance of prioritised and sequenced mandates, and initiatives to improve the safety of peacekeepers. S/PV.8521 (7 May 2019) was an open debate on “Investing in peace: improving safety and performance of United Nations peacekeepers”. Useful Additional Resources The Handbook for United Nations Field Missions on Preventing and Responding to Conflict-Related Sexual Violence, Produced by the Conflict-Related Sexual Violence Team; Policy and Best Practices Service; Policy, Evaluation and Training Division; UN Department of Peace Operations, 2020. Protection of Civilians in United Nations Peacekeeping Handbook, Produced by the Protection of Civilians Team; Policy and Best Practices Service; Policy, Evaluation and Training Division; UN Department of Peace Operations, 2020. Namie Di Razza and Jake Sherman, Integrating Human Rights into the Operational Readiness of UN Peacekeepers, International Peace Institute, April 2020.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Peace Operations and Human Rights forces, including reimbursements” under countries (T/PCCs) may want to highlight in the relevance of human rights to peace and the theme of “strengthening the conduct of their interventions best practices and lessons security efforts. While the Council has been peacekeeping operations and personnel”. learnt about integrating human rights aspects able to agree on human rights tasks in spe- Members signing the declaration further- of the mandates into the work of an operation cific situations, however, approaching human more “commit to provide well-trained and on the ground. rights as a thematic issue has proven contro- well-equipped uniformed personnel” while An important ongoing issue is how the versial. A 2017 initiative by the US to add a emphasising “the need for increased funding UN can help improve human rights readi- new agenda item, “Human rights and inter- to better support training”. ness through training mechanisms. While national peace and security”, was dropped international human rights is a key element because of opposition from China, Russia Key Issues and Options of UN training, the quality of pre-deployment and members of the Non-Aligned Movement The July debate offers an opportunity to dis- training varies widely among T/PCCs, and, serving on the Council at the time. Eventually, cuss the impact of including protection of according to the International Peace Institute, a compromise was reached to hold a meeting, human rights in peace operations mandates “in-mission induction trainings are usually with a briefing by Guterres, under the existing on missions’ overall effectiveness. Members not well-tailored to specific missions…” and agenda item “Maintenance of international may explore topics such as the practicalities “methodologies…fail to integrate the practi- peace and security”. However, it appears of integrating human rights in peace opera- cal training needs identified on the ground”. that the present proposal to hold a debate on tions’ mandates, including child protection peacekeeping and human rights (under the and the protection of women; what challeng- Council Dynamics agenda item “United Nations peacekeeping es the operations face; and how they can best The inclusion of human rights elements in operations”) met with the members’ consent. collaborate with civil society organisations on numerous mission mandates established by the ground. Troop- and police-contributing the Council reflects its general acceptance of

Libya

Expected Council Action April 2021, and the mandate of the Panel of recruitment of mercenaries for both sides. In July, the Security Council is expected to Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions International efforts to facilitate a perma- receive briefings by the Acting Special Rep- Committee expires on 15 May 2021. nent ceasefire between the parties have been resentative and head of the UN Support Mis- unsuccessful so far. In her statement to the sion in Libya (UNSMIL), Stephanie Williams, Key Recent Developments HRC, Williams also spoke of 400,000 inter- and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions After 13 months of fighting, armed groups nally displaced persons and 654,000 asylum Committee, Jürgen Schulz, the Deputy Per- aligned with the internationally recognised seekers, migrants and refugees in the country manent Representative of Germany. If the and UN-backed Libyan Government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, measures implemented in response to the National Accord (GNA) halted General one of the LNA’s foreign backers, proposed COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the Khalifa Haftar’s offensive against the capital, a ceasefire on 6 June. Turkey, the main mili- briefings and the subsequent consultations Tripoli. All positions in greater Tripoli held by tary sponsor of the GNA, rejected the pro- are likely to be held as open and closed vid- forces allied with Haftar, head of the eastern- posal, arguing that it was made in bad faith. eoconferences, respectively. based militia known as the Libyan National Last November, the GNA and Turkey signed UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 Sep- Army (LNA), had been retaken by the GNA two agreements, one on cooperation on mili- tember. The authorisation given by resolution by 4 June. Both the GNA and the LNA tary and security matters and the other on 2491 (to inspect vessels suspected of being receive foreign military support in violation maritime boundary delimitation, including used for migrant smuggling or human traf- of UN sanctions. During an 18 June address drilling rights. After a failed attempt to have ficking) expires on 3 October, and that of res- to the Human Rights Council (HRC), Wil- Haftar sign a ceasefire agreement brokered olution 2526 (to inspect vessels believed to be liams spoke of an “alarming military build- by Turkey and Russia in January 2020, Tur- in violation of the arms embargo) expires on up” due to “the uninterrupted dispatch by key increased its military support to Libya, 5 June 2021. Measures related to the illicit the foreign backers of increasingly sophis- eventually turning the conflict in favour of export of petroleum from Libya expire on 30 ticated and lethal weapons” and increasing the GNA.

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2526 (5 June 2020) renewed for 12 months the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya bound to or from the country that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo. S/RES/2510 (12 February 2020) endorsed the conclusions of the Berlin Conference on Libya; it was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia). S/RES/2509 (11 February 2020) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee until 15 May 2021 as well as the measures related to the illicit export from Libya of petroleum until 30 April 2021; it was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia). S/RES/2491 (3 October 2019) renewed for 12 months the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking. S/RES/2486 (12 September 2019) extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 15 September 2020. Security Council Letter S/2020/504 (5 June 2020) was from the president of the Security Council containing the results of the vote on resolution 2526.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Libya

On 20 June, el-Sisi said that Egypt might of the Berlin Conference in resolution 2510 the LNA’s offensive of 4 April 2019. Acting- Spe intervene to protect its borders if the GNA of 12 February, on which Russia abstained. cial Representative Williams also addressed advanced towards the city of Sirte (which The participants of the Berlin Conference the meeting. Al-Ashif said that the “subsequent fighting has resulted in a serious deterioration is about 800 kilometres from the Egyptian further agreed to establish an International in the human rights and humanitarian situation border). A day later, Egyptian Foreign Min- Follow-Up Committee (IFC) to coordinate in Libya”. The High Commissioner called on the ister Sameh Shoukry said the government efforts to implement the Berlin Conference HRC in her report (A/HRC/43/75) to “establish an preferred a political solution and el-Sisi’s conclusions. The third meeting of the IFC at international investigative body into human rights statement had been misinterpreted. Sirte the level of senior officials took place virtually violations and abuses and violations of interna- tional humanitarian law”. At the 18 June meeting, has strategic significance because of its prox- on 22 June. Libya, speaking as the concerned country, also imity to Libya’s oil crescent, which remains Following the second round of talks on called for the creation of an independent inves- under Haftar’s control, part of the two-thirds the security track, which concluded on 23 tigation mechanism. In its 22 June resolution of Libyan territory the LNA controls. Haftar February, the conflict parties agreed on a (A/HRC/43/L.40) on “technical assistance and receives political support by parallel govern- draft ceasefire agreement and were expected capacity-building to improve human rights in Lib- ya”, which was adopted without a vote, the HRC mental authorities located in the eastern city to present it to their leadership. During her requested the High Commissioner to dispatch of Tobruk, including the House of Represen- briefing to the HRC, Williams emphasised a fact-finding mission to Libya to “establish the tatives. Its president, Aguila Saleh, supported that the UN’s mission in Libya remained facts and circumstances of the situation of human an Egyptian intervention in a statement on 24 ready “to help Libyans rebuild a state strong rights…and to collect and review relevant informa- June. The GNA has declared its intention to enough to peacefully contain political differ- tion to document alleged violations and abuses of international human rights law and international govern the entirety of Libyan territory. ences”. She welcomed the start of the third humanitarian law by all parties”. The consequences of the armed conflict round of negotiations on the security track, also became more visible in June. When the consisting of a 3 June meeting of UNSMIL GNA regained control of the city of Tarhou- with an LNA delegation and a 9 June meeting Key Issues and Options na, 16,125 people were displaced from the between UNSMIL and a GNA delegation. The ongoing military conflict in Libya and area within 24 hours due to intense fighting, On 5 June, the Council unanimous- related non-compliance with the arms embar- according to the International Organization ly adopted resolution 2526, renewing the go by multiple international actors have been for Migration. Additionally, LNA-allied forces authorisation for member states, acting ongoing issues for the Council, together with reportedly laid antipersonnel landmines while nationally or through regional organisations, the implementation of the Berlin Confer- retreating from Tripoli’s southern suburbs. In to inspect vessels on the high seas off the ence’s conclusions. Council members indi- and around Tarhouna, shortly thereafter, 11 coast of Libya, bound to or from the country, vidually could use their influence to put pres- mass graves were discovered. The Secretary- that they have reasonable grounds to believe sure on the conflict parties and proxy powers General received this information “with hor- are violating the arms embargo. to adhere to the arms embargo and engage in ror” and expressed his deep shock in a 12 June The Secretary-General has yet to appoint a political solution in good faith. press statement. He offered support to the a successor to Ghassan Salamé, who GNA to investigate alleged crimes, which the announced his resignation from the post of Council and Wider Dynamics authorities accepted. ICC Prosecutor Fatou Special Representative and head of UNSMIL The Council continues to be divided over Bensouda said in a 21 June statement that on 2 March. Candidates put forward by the Libya. Council outcomes routinely call upon the mass graves “may constitute evidence of Secretary-General so far have not been able UN member states to cease support for par- war crimes or crimes against humanity”. First to garner unanimous support from Coun- allel institutions in Libya, but some coun- investigations by the GNA reportedly showed cil members. It further seems that the US is tries, including members of the Council, fail that children were among the dead and that pushing to divide the role into two positions: to respect these calls. Haftar’s wide territo- dozens had been buried alive. a head of UNSMIL and a Special Envoy for rial control and past claims to be uniting the Airwars, a non-profit organisation that Libya. country and fighting terrorism have result- tracks civilian harm resulting from military As of 30 June, Libya had 802 confirmed ed in political and military support from a actions in Iraq, Libya, Somalia and Syria, cases of COVID-19. The UN’s 2020 humani- number of countries inside and outside the reported that more civilians had died in Libya tarian response plan for Libya of $129.8 mil- Council. France has shown political support after COVID-19 was declared in mid-March lion has been funded at 32.8 percent, with for Haftar, while his largest military backer is than in any month since August 2019, with $87.2 million outstanding. the United Arab Emirates. the number of deaths in April in Libya higher A confidential report by the Panel of than those in Syria. Human Rights-Related Developments Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions On the political situation, as a result of During its resumed 43rd regular session (the Committee that was leaked to the press in session was suspended on 13 March because the Berlin Conference on Libya in January, early May said that the Russian private mili- of the COVID-19 pandemic and resumed on 15 negotiations between Libyan parties along June), the HRC held an interactive dialogue on tary company Wagner Group has deployed three tracks (economic, political and security) 18 June on the situation of human rights in Libya. around 1,200 mercenaries to fight for Haftar, are underway, with different levels of prog- The Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights, according to the media. The Kremlin denies ress. The Council endorsed the conclusions Nada Al-Ashif, gave an oral update concerning ties to the Wagner Group against accusations

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Libya to the contrary by various sources. sponsors but Turkey deny their role in Libya. file. Jürgen Schulz, Germany’s Deputy Per- Mercenaries from different countries are The UK is the penholder on Libya, shar- manent Representative, chairs the 1970 Lib- reportedly fighting on both sides. All foreign ing the pen with Germany on the sanctions ya Sanctions Committee.

West Africa and the Sahel

Expected Council Action in May, announcing that eight militants had for national stakeholders in Burkina Faso, In July, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Special been killed and 38 others arrested. The AU is Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Niger, Mali, Representative and head of the UN Office for also continuing discussions with ECOWAS and Togo to work together to hold elections West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will on deploying 3,000 troops to the Sahel. and to take all appropriate steps to prevent brief the Council to present the Secretary- In the Lake Chad Basin, Boko Haram violence. In light of tensions in Guinea, the General’s semi-annual report on West Africa killed 98 Chadian soldiers on 23 March in Council called on all political stakeholders, and the Sahel. Boma, Chad. On 29 March, Chad launched a regardless of political affiliation, to resume counter-insurgency operation. At the conclu- dialogue without delay so that electoral pro- Key Recent Developments sion of the 10-day operation, which deployed cesses, as well as political reforms, can be Terrorist groups continue to destabilise the troops to Niger and north-eastern Nigeria, conducted with broad consensus. Sahel, fuel intercommunal violence and Chad claimed that over 1,000 Boko Haram The presidential statement highlighted increasingly threaten coastal West African militants had been killed, with a loss of 52 concerns about the political situation in countries. Boko Haram and a splinter group, soldiers. On 9 June, the Boko Haram ISWAP Guinea, encouraging Chambas to contin- the Islamic State in West Africa Province faction killed at least 81 people—its deadli- ue carrying out his good offices there. A (ISWAP), remain a threat to north-east Nige- est attack on civilians this year—and stole 22 March referendum on a constitutional ria and to other countries in the Lake Chad between 400 and 1,200 cattle in the village amendment would allow President Alpha Basin. Presidential elections in the subregion, of Felo, Nigeria. A 16 June Security Council Condé to contest a third and fourth term. several of which may be contentious and risk press statement condemned the attack as well The referendum was held along with long- causing political violence, are also planned as terrorist attacks on 13 June in Monguno delayed legislative elections, both of which this year in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Gha- against a UN humanitarian facility and on the opposition boycotted. Violence on elec- na, Guinea, Niger, and Togo. 13 June in Nganzai in Borno State, Nigeria, tion day resulted in at least ten deaths in There has been increased military coop- which together resulted in at least 120 people Conakry and four in the Nzérékoré region. In eration between five Sahelian countries— being killed. a statement, Chambas strongly condemned Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Earlier this year, the Council renewed the all acts of violence and the excessive use of Niger, which have formed the Group of Five mandate of UNOWAS through an exchange force and called on Guineans to mobilise for the Sahel Joint Force (FC-G5S)—and of letters with the Secretary-General for three against intercommunal violence. external partners since the formation of the years until 31 January 2023. The mandate of At the time of writing, Council members Coalition of the Sahel at a January summit UNOWAS continues to be organised around were negotiating the mandate renewal of the in Pau, France. In March, France and other four objectives: monitoring political develop- UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisa- EU countries launched a special operations ments and good offices; enhancing region- tion Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). During task force, called Task Force Takuba, to assist al and subregional partnerships to address June, Mali saw major protests calling for Pres- the Malian military in combatting terrorist cross-border and cross-cutting threats in West ident Ibrahim Boubacar Keita’s resignation groups in the Liptako-Gourma tri-border Africa and the Sahel; supporting, through over continued insecurity and corruption. On region with Burkina Faso and Niger. It should political advocacy and convening, imple- 20 June, an ECOWAS delegation, dispatched be operational later this year. The Economic mentation of the UN’s Sahel Strategy; and to Mali due to the protests, called for a re-run Community of West African States (ECOW- promoting good governance, respect for the of disputed local elections that were held in AS) and its member states have sought to rule of law, human rights and the integration March and the convening of a national uni- increase security cooperation to stem the of gender in conflict prevention, management ty government. Secretary-General António expanding terrorist threat and support the and resolution. Guterres issued a statement expressing con- Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel). Côte On 11 February, the Council adopted a cern over the political developments and sup- d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso conducted their presidential statement on West Africa and the port for ECOWAS efforts. first joint operation along their shared border Sahel. The statement emphasised the need

UN DOCUMENTS ON WEST AFRICA AND THE SAHEL Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2020/2 (11 February 2020) emphasised the need for free and fair, credible, timely and peaceful elections during 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/373 (8 May 2020) was a report on the FC-G5S. Security Council Letter S/2020/85 (31 January 2020) renewed the mandate of UNOWAS from 1 February 2020 to 31 January 2023. Security Council Press Statements SC/14216 (16 June 2020) condemned terrorist attacks on 9 and 10 June in Felo, on 13 June in Monguno, and on 13 June in Nganzai in Borno State, Nigeria. SC/14155 (1 April 2020) condemned the 23 March attack in Boma, Chad, in which 98 soldiers were killed and an attack on military vehicles near Goneri, Nigeria, in which at least 47 were killed.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 13 West Africa and the Sahel

Key Issues and Options regional security initiatives, efforts to address Council Dynamics The threat of terrorism in West Africa and structural causes of instability, such as under- Members have long valued the good offices the Sahel remains a key issue, as are Cham- development, poor governance and climate activities of Chambas and UNOWAS’ con- bas’ good offices activities around elector- change, are also important, including the flict prevention role. During discussion of the al and political tensions. Related to these UN’s Sahel Strategy, the G5 Sahel Priority latest UNOWAS mandate renewal, members issues are the implications of the COVID-19 Investment Programme and the Lake Chad felt that the Secretary-General’s proposal to pandemic. According to the Secretary- Basin regional stabilisation strategy. Imple- place a greater focus on having UNOWAS General’s 8 May report on the FC-G5S, mentation of Mali’s 2015 peace agreement is oversee the integration of UN system activi- terrorist groups have sought to exploit the also frequently cited as key for both Mali and ties for “sustaining peace” and sustainable pandemic to intensify attacks and for propa- the Sahel’s stabilisation. development risked weakening the politi- ganda purposes. MINUSMA has been hard The Council might adopt a presiden- cal nature of the mission. This resulted in hit by the pandemic, with over 100 cases, tial statement that could, inter alia, encour- the Council’s first authorising a one-month including the deaths of two peacekeepers. age authorities and national stakeholders to extension of UNOWAS in December 2019 to The pandemic is also expected to severely work together to seek a level playing field for consider the proposal more closely and then affect this year’s high-stakes electoral pro- upcoming elections; urge respect for free- scaling back some of the proposed changes cesses, according to Chambas during a doms of assembly, expression and the press; in the mandate. briefing of the Peacebuilding Commission and seek consensus in addressing the impli- Members have some diverging views on (PBC) on 22 April. Guinea’s opposition and cations of COVID-19 on the electoral pro- how the UN and Council should support civil society have already accused president cess. An option for the briefing could be to regional counter-terrorism efforts such as the Condé of exploiting the pandemic to silence invite the chair of the PBC, which frequently FC-G5S. Substantive discussion of such sup- opposition to the March referendum and works on West Africa and the Sahel, to address port, including on financing and the role of legislative elections. the Council on the region’s peacebuilding MINUSMA, tends to occur during Council Drug trafficking, intercommunal violence, challenges. meetings on Mali and the FC-G5S. and piracy are key issues that are linked at Belgium and Niger are co-penholders on times with terrorist groups. In addition to UNOWAS.

Yemen

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments intercepted bomb-laden Houthi drones and In July, the Council is expected to renew Yemen’s war continued and its humanitar- a ballistic missile fired at southern Saudi Ara- the mandate of the UN Mission to sup- ian crisis—the largest in the world, according bia on 15 and 16 June. On 23 June, the coali- port the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), to the UN—worsened, exacerbated by the tion announced that it had intercepted a new which expires on 15 July. The Council is also COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, Griffiths round of ballistic missiles and drones target- expected to receive its monthly briefing on has continued efforts to broker an agree- ing Riyadh. Yemen by Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. ment between the Yemeni government and The government and the separatist South- Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- Houthi rebel group for a nationwide ceasefire, ern Transitional Council (STC) also con- ian Affairs Mark Lowcock may brief on the a series of confidence-building measures, and tinued fighting in Abyan and Socotra gov- humanitarian situation, and General Abhijit the resumption of peace talks. ernorates. On 22 June, it was reported that Guha, the head of UNMHA, is also likely The government and the Houthis con- the STC had seized several state buildings, to brief. With the extraordinary and provi- tinue to battle in Yemen’s north. Airstrikes including the governor’s headquarters, dur- sional measures implemented in response to by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition, which ing fighting in Socotra’s capital of Hadebo. the COVID-19 pandemic likely to still be in backs the government, increased after the That same day, the coalition announced that place, the briefings are expected to be held as expiry of the unilateral ceasefire that the it would deploy monitors to observe a cease- a videoconference (VTC). The Yemen Pan- coalition announced on 8 April to combat fire agreement in Abyan. It also announced el of Experts is due to submit its mid-term the COVID-19 pandemic (initially for two plans for a meeting on implementing the update to the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Com- weeks and then renewed for one month on Riyadh Agreement, last year’s power-sharing mittee by 28 July. 23 April). Intense airstrikes hit Sana’a and arrangement between the government and other Houthi strongholds for several days STC brokered by Saudi Arabia. after the coalition announced that it had Saudi Arabia and the UN hosted a virtual

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2505 (13 January 2020) extended the mandate of UNMHA until 15 July 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/531 (11 June 2020) was on the implementation of resolution 2231. S/2020/525 (9 June 2020) was on children and armed conflict.Security Council Letter S/2020/524 (15 June 2020) was a review of UNMHA. Security Council Press Statements SC/14176 (29 April 2020) was on instability in southern Yemen. SC/14159 (10 April 2020) welcomed the coalition’s announcement of a unilateral ceasefire and called on the Houthis to reciprocate without delay.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Yemen pledging conference on 2 June for the Yemen Armed Conflict. This year’s report removed Another issue for July is the mandate humanitarian response, where a funding the Saudi-led coalition from among entities renewal of UNMHA. As is the practice, the shortage has forced the scaling back or clo- listed for committing grave violations affect- Council may renew UNMHA for six months, sure of almost 75 percent of major aid pro- ing children, citing “a sustained significant maintaining its four-point mandate, includ- grammes. The conference generated pledg- decrease in killing and maiming due to air ing that it lead and support the Redeploy- es totalling $1.5 billion of the $2.41 billion strikes and the signature and implementation ment Coordination Committee (RCC) that required through the end of the year. Sau- of the programme of time-bound activities oversees the ceasefire and redeployment of di Arabia made the largest commitment, of to support the implementation of the memo- forces set out in the 2018 Hodeidah agree- $500 million, of which $300 million would randum of understanding signed in March ment between the government and Houthis, be directed through the UN. 2019”. In 2019, the coalition was identified and that it monitor the compliance of the A 15 June statement by OCHA highlight- as responsible for killing and maiming 222 parties to the accord. The resolution could ed that COVID-19 appeared to be “spread- children, compared to 729 in 2018 and 670 encourage the parties to reactivate the RCC, ing rapidly” in Yemen with a fatality rate in 2017. Yemeni parties that remain listed in which the government suspended its par- four times the global average. As of 23 June, include the Houthis; Al-Qaida in the Arabian ticipation following the 11 March shooting Yemen had 971 cases and 258 deaths, mostly Peninsula; pro-government militias, includ- of its liaison officer, who subsequently died. reported from government-held areas, but ing the Salafists and popular committees; It could also comment on the impact of the lack of available testing has made it impos- the STC-affiliated Security Belt Forces; and COVID-19 pandemic on the mission. In late sible to confirm this data. The Houthis, for Yemeni government forces. April, most UNMHA personnel were tempo- their part, have been accused of conceal- A June 2020 Secretary-General’s report rarily withdrawn to their home countries over ing the extent of the outbreak in the north, on the Iran nuclear deal concluded that concerns about the pandemic, with a core reporting four cases in total by mid-June. In cruise missiles used in several attacks claimed team of 12 personnel remaining in Hodeidah. May, the UN evacuated almost 100 interna- by the Houthis last year on Saudi Arabia were tional staff based in Sana’a to protect them of “Iranian origin”. Council Dynamics from COVID-19, reducing its foreign staff in Council members appear aligned in their sup- the city to 60. Key Issues and Options port of the Special Envoy, desiring a ceasefire On 24 June, Security Council members Achieving a nationwide ceasefire and restart- and resumption of a political process while held a closed VTC on Yemen. Griffiths pro- ing a political process remain key. Griffiths being very concerned about the humanitar- vided an update on his efforts to broker a has frequently reported that the sides are ian crisis and COVID-19 outbreak in Yemen. joint declaration by the government and close to an agreement, but this has yet to On the situation in the south, in press state- Houthis of a ceasefire; humanitarian and materialise. Holding a closed Council VTC ments and elements to the press, members economic measures (including the opening meeting on 24 June, rather than including a have repeatedly called for the STC to reverse of the Sana’a airport, reducing restrictions public session, sought to allow for a franker its actions since April, when it declared self- on imports to Hodeidah ports, paying civ- discussion of the issues that have frustrated rule in defiance of the Riyadh Agreement. il servant salaries, and establishing a joint an agreement. If agreement is reached on a Tunisia is the Arab member on the Council operations cell to combat COVID-19); and joint declaration, the Council may adopt a that traditionally champions positions of the resuming peace talks. Lowcock briefed on the resolution to welcome or endorse the deal. Saudi Arabia-led coalition. The US, which is humanitarian situation, and Guha elaborated The humanitarian situation remains a seeking to maintain restrictions on Iranian on a recent review of UNMHA, the report of critical issue. In addition to a lack of human- arms transfers that are set to expire later this which had been circulated to Council mem- itarian funding and the pandemic, there year, often points to what it perceives as Iran’s bers earlier in the month. A 29 June Council is renewed alarm about the risks posed by destabilising role in Yemen. press statement condemned the escalation of Yemen’s already beleaguered economy. The The UK is the penholder on Yemen. violence and expressed deep concern at the decline in remittances because of the pan- Ambassador I. Rhonda King (Saint Vincent slow pace of negotiations, calling on the par- demic and the near-depletion of Yemen’s for- and the Grenadines) chairs the 2140 Yemen ties to agree to mediated proposals with haste. eign reserves at the central bank in Aden are Sanctions Committee. Also in June, the Secretary-General among economic factors threatening to exac- released his annual report on Children and erbate the humanitarian crisis.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Colombia

Expected Council Action Rodrigo Londoño, held a VTC meeting with vulnerable communities to lessen the devas- In July, Security Council members are UN High Commissioner for Human Rights tating impact of the pandemic in Colombia. expected to hold an open videoconference Michelle Bachelet, in which he asked for Apart from the difficulties caused by the (VTC) meeting, which will be followed by a international assistance to address the killing pandemic, the government, the FARC party, closed VTC session, on Colombia. Special of former combatants, including visits of spe- the private sector, and civil society have coop- Representative and head of the UN Verifica- cial rapporteurs to the country to assess the erated to address and mitigate the impact of tion Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Mas- situation of ex-combatants and social leaders. the virus. Examples include the rapid provi- sieu will brief on recent developments and On 28 April, the guerrilla group Ejército de sion of supplies such as hygiene kits to the the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the Liberación Nacional (ELN) announced that it former TATRs and initiatives by ex-combat- mission, published on 26 June. A civil society would not extend the unilateral “active” cease- ant cooperatives to produce masks and pro- briefer may also brief the Council. The Coun- fire that it had observed since 1 April. Secre- vide support for vulnerable populations. cil is likely to issue a press statement following tary-General António Guterres regretted the The Security Council last discussed the meeting. announcement, saying that the month-long Colombia on 14 April, when it received The mandate of the verification mission ceasefire had had a positive effect and its exten- briefings from Ruiz Massieu and David expires on 25 September. sion could have helped facilitate the response Santiago Cano, a youth civil society leader to the pandemic in line with his call for a global from Colombia. In a 17 April press state- Key Recent Developments ceasefire. He further urged armed groups in ment, members of the Security Council Since March, Colombia has been contending Colombia to cease all violence to facilitate the stated their support for the peace process in with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, unimpeded supply of relief assistance. On 14 Colombia and expressed grave concern about which has had ramifications for the country’s June, the ELN released six hostages (two police the targeting of former FARC-EP members, socio-economic situation, the security envi- officers and four civilians). The government of human rights defenders and social leaders. ronment, and the overall implementation of President Iván Duque has repeatedly said that In this regard, they welcomed the launch of the 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the the release of all hostages and the end of kid- the “Comprehensive Programme for Safe- Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting nappings and attacks by the ELN are precon- guards for Women Leaders and Human Peace between the government of Colombia ditions for peace talks. At the time of writing, Rights Defenders” action plan and called for and the rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revo- there had been no response from the govern- its implementation. They further called for lucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo ment on the recent release of prisoners or the effective action to improve security, including (FARC-EP). As of 29 June, Colombia had possibility of holding talks with the ELN. through the extension of state presence; the 95,043 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and The socio-economic repercussions of regular convening of the National Commis- had reported 3,223 fatalities from the virus. the pandemic had a profound impact on sion on Security Guarantees; and the imple- Violence against communities, including Colombia as lockdown measures shut down mentation of the Comprehensive Security indigenous and Afro-Colombian commu- businesses, leading to a historic high of 23.5 and Protection Programme for Communi- nities, and the killing of former FARC-EP percent unemployment in urban areas. The ties and Organisations in the Territories. They members, human rights defenders and social Colombian finance ministry estimated that also noted the unilateral ceasefire declared in leaders, which had been prevalent prior to the Colombia’s economy will contract 5.5 per- April by the ELN in response to the Secre- pandemic, have continued unabated. Lock- cent in 2020 because of the halt in economic tary-General’s call for a global ceasefire. down measures that were put in place since activity caused by the pandemic. According 24 March to curb the spread of COVID-19 to Ruiz Massieu, the pandemic has also hin- Human Rights-Related Developments made it more difficult for vulnerable commu- dered the processes of economic and social On 24 April, the spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in Geneva, nities to report serious security situations and reintegration of former combatants, particu- Rupert Colville, said in a press briefing note that access governmental response mechanisms. larly with regard to the development of pro- the situation in the Cauca department of Colom- As of 26 June, the verification mission had ductive projects. In his most recent Council bia was “deeply worrying”. He stressed that the recorded the murders of 13 former combat- briefing, on 14 April, Ruiz Massieu warned COVID-19 pandemic and its related restrictions ants since the beginning of the year, bringing that the close to 9,500 former combatants have “aggravated an already violent and volatile situation”. OHCHR has received daily reports of to over 200 the number of former combat- residing outside the former territorial areas threats, including death threats, and harassment ants killed since the signing of the 2016 peace for training and reintegration (TATRs) are against the “local population, including against agreement. As of 19 June, the Office of the vulnerable to pandemic health risks and farmers, indigenous peoples and Afro-descen- High Commissioner for Human Rights had urgently need access to health care and basic dant communities who are trying to ensure con- verified the killing of 32 social leaders since services such as clean water and sanitation. finement and prevention measures are complied with”. Some parts of Cauca continued to face the beginning of the year, with 47 additional The UN country team in Colombia pre- “intensifying clashes” between security forces, cases currently under investigation. On 11 pared a $303 million strategy focusing on armed groups and criminal groups, Colville said, June, the head of the FARC political party, health, improving livelihoods, and protecting and “civilians have been caught in the violence” with one indigenous child dead and forced

UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2487 (12 September 2019) renewed the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia until 25 September 2020. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/603 (26 June 2020) was the 90-day report. S/2020/239 (26 March 2020) was the 90-day report. Security Council Letter S/2020/305 (16 April 2020) contained a record of the Council meeting on Colombia that took place on 14 April 2020. Security Council Press Statement SC/14163 (17 April 2020) reiterated the support of Council members for the peace process in Colombia.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Colombia

displacement of two rural communities. The UN With regard to security guarantees, Coun- comprehensive programmes of security and Verification Mission in Colombia has said that cil members could reiterate their calls for the protection measures for communities and 36 FARC-EP ex-combatants have been killed in regular convening of the National Com- organisations in conflict-affected areas. Look- Cauca since the peace agreement was signed in November 2016. (During its July 2019 visiting mission on Security Guarantees, the body ing ahead to the verification mission’s mandate mission to Colombia, members of the Security charged under the peace agreement with renewal before its September expiry, Coun- Council travelled to Cauca.) developing a public policy on the dismantling cil members may wish to consider possible of criminal organisations and their support modifications to the mission’s mandate to networks. The commission was last convened correspond with developments in the imple- Key Issues and Options by Duque on 9 January. mentation of the agreement. In this regard, The key issue for the Council remains to sup- On the long-term sustainability of the members may consider the 16 June request port the implementation of the peace agree- reintegration process, members may seek of the Colombian government that the man- ment in Colombia. The need to implement more information on what form of assistance, date be expanded to include the monitoring of the agreement fully—as opposed to focusing including technical assistance, might be the implementation of sanctions imposed by on only select aspects—continues to be a key needed to prevent the COVID-19 pandem- the Special Jurisdiction for Peace, the judicial factor for Council members. ic from hindering progress on the economic component of the transitional justice system A new issue for the Council is how to reintegration of former combatants. In this established by the 2016 peace agreement. address the risks that the COVID-19 pandem- regard, members might be interested in hear- ic poses to the implementation of the peace ing more about steps that need to be taken to Council Dynamics agreement. Council members might seek guarantee former combatants’ access to land, Council members are united in their over- more information from the briefer on what including for productive projects. In addi- all support for the peace process. While they can be done to ensure that the implementa- tion, they might ask the briefer for updates have generally been deferential towards tion of the three priorities outlined in the Sec- on the implementation of the “reintegration the government, some differences in tone retary-General’s 26 March report—protec- road map”, which was jointly agreed upon by emerged in 2019. For example, several mem- tion of social leaders, human rights defenders the government and FARC and adopted by a bers have been critical of the government on and former FARC combatants, ensuring the government resolution on 27 December 2019. such issues as the continuing security vacu- centrality of the needs of communities affect- The current mandate of the verification um in areas from which the FARC-EP with- ed by violence in all peace-building efforts mission, as set out in the 2016 agreement, drew under the agreement and an uneven and guaranteeing the long-term sustainability focuses on verifying aspects of the agree- approach to implementing different aspects of the reintegration process of former FARC- ment related to the political, economic and of the agreement. EP combatants—are not hindered because social reincorporation of the FARC-EP, per- The UK is the penholder on Colombia. of the circumstances created by COVID-19. sonal and collective security guarantees, and

Syria

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments Syrian pound); and the ongoing threat posed In July, the Security Council expects to hold On 16 June, Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. by COVID-19 to Syria’s healthcare system. its monthly meetings on political issues, the Pedersen briefed the Council, describing the Among other topics, Pedersen described the humanitarian situation, and the use of chemi- current political, socio-economic and security situation of detainees and those missing in cal weapons in Syria. Due to the extraordi- challenges Syria faces. Despite three months Syria. The Council also heard from Noura nary and provisional measures implemented of relative calm in Syria’s north-west since Ghazi, founder of NoPhotoZone, a civil soci- in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the the 5 March ceasefire agreed by Russia and ety organisation devoted to assisting families meetings are likely to be held through video- Turkey, the situation in Syria remains vola- of detainees. She highlighted how women conferencing (VTC). tile. Instability persists because of a series and children are affected by detentions. In The cross-border/cross-line aid delivery of ongoing crises, including recent ceasefire his briefing, Pedersen also announced that mechanism, as mandated by resolution 2504 violations in Idlib province; the rapidly dete- the third session of the Constitutional Com- of 10 January, expires on 10 July. Negotia- riorating economic situation in the coun- mittee would be convened in Geneva at the tions on its renewal began on 19 June. try, including the sudden and precipitous end of August. depreciation of the national currency (the Syria’s security situation appears to have

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2504 (10 January 2020) renewed the authorisation for cross-border humanitarian aid into Syria through two border crossings (Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa) for six months. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/401 (13 May 2020) was on the review of the UN’s cross-line and cross-border operations. S/2020/310 (15 April 2020) was the first report of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons’ Investigation and Identification Team. Security Council Letters S/2020/551 (XX June 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states containing the record of the 16 June open VTC meeting on Syria. S/2020/427 (21 May 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states containing the record of the 19 May open VTC meeting on Syria.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Syria grown more unstable in recent weeks. There been supported by cross-border deliveries One option could be for the Council to have been reports of sporadic shelling in the from Al Yarubiyah”. This, he argued, meant renew resolution 2504 for a period of 12 north-west despite the ceasefire, and both that a “combination of more cross-border months, allowing for consistent, unhindered Turkish and Syrian forces have deployed and cross-line access is required to sustain, cross-border humanitarian aid to be delivered reinforcements around the de-escalation and preferably increase, humanitarian assis- to Syria through two Council-authorised bor- zone. In addition, media sources reported tance” and that alternatives to Al Yarubiyah der crossings with Turkey (Bab al-Salam and that Russian air strikes on 8 June in Idlib have comparatively more limitations. Bab al-Hawa). province had led to multiple civilian deaths The precarious humanitarian situation Another option could be for the Council and caused hundreds of civilians to flee their has been compounded by Syria’s worsening to pursue a renewal of resolution 2504, seek- villages. Russia denied any role in the air- economic outlook, the collapse of the Syr- ing to reinstate the Al Yarubiyah border cross- strikes. According to OCHA, hostilities in ian pound, and concerns about the impact of ing between Syria and Iraq. Several Council the area caused “renewed displacement… in COVID-19. According to OCHA, the Syr- members have sought ways to authorise the some parts of southern Idlib governorate and ian pound has been devalued by 105 percent reopening of the Al Yarubiyah border cross- northern Hama governorate”. The situation since the start of May and by approximately ing in recent months, given their views about also remains tense in and around Deraa in 360 percent since June 2019. This has result- the inadequacy of current cross-line deliver- the south-west, where the Syrian opposition ed in a steep rise in the price of food, medi- ies and especially in light of the risk posed by has attacked government facilities and where, cine and other goods, with 7.9 million people COVID-19. more recently, there have been anti-govern- unable to meet their food needs and a further According to press reports, the initial draft ment demonstrations in Suwayda, a majority 1.9 million people at risk of food insecurity. resolution proposes the re-authorisation of Druze city, because of the deteriorating eco- Though there have been few confirmed cases Al Yarubiyah for six months until 10 Janu- nomic situation. of COVID-19 in Syria (with the Syrian Min- ary 2021 with an option for an additional six Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- istry of Health as of 19 June officially con- months if the Council determines that the ian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordina- firming 178 cases of COVID-19 throughout effects of COVID-19 warrant it. Some Coun- tor Mark Lowcock was scheduled to brief the the country and no reports of infections in cil members, however, have expressed scep- Council on 29 June. According to the Secre- the north-west), concerns about the pandem- ticism about the need for such an authorisa- tary-General’s 13 May review of the UN’s ic persist. tion: speaking during the 29 April Council humanitarian cross-line and cross-border On 2 June, the Council returned to its briefing, Russia’s Permanent Representa- operations, 11 million people throughout regular monthly closed-meeting format to tive urged Council members “not to waste Syria are in need of humanitarian assistance. discuss the monthly report of the Director- their time on looking for a way to advocate, Of the 6.2 million people living in areas not General of the Organisation for the Prohibi- explicitly or implicitly for getting Al Yarubi- under Syrian government control, 4.2 mil- tion of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) on the yah back”. lion concentrated in Syria’s north-east and use of chemical weapons in Syria. The June north-west have acute humanitarian needs. meeting followed an acrimonious informal Council Dynamics According to OCHA, of the four million peo- interactive dialogue (IID) on chemical weap- The Council remains divided on Syria; dif- ple living in north-west Syria, an estimated ons in Syria on 12 May which discussed the ficult negotiations on the re-authorisation 2.7 million people are internally displaced first report of the OPCW’s Investigation and of cross-border aid in December 2019 and and in dire need of humanitarian assistance, Identification Team (IIT) on the alleged role January 2020 starkly illustrated differences including via cross-border deliveries. of the Syrian Air Force in the use of sarin as on the humanitarian file. Most members have Delivery of humanitarian assistance in a chemical weapon in Ltamenah on 24 and emphasised the critical importance of the the north-west through the Bab al-Salam 30 March 2017 and chlorine as a chemical cross-border delivery mechanism. China and and Bab al-Hawa crossings are at record lev- weapon on 25 March 2017. Russia, however, have often expressed reser- els, with a 130 percent year-on-year increase vations. Both countries have maintained that between April 2019 and April 2020. Mean- Human Rights-Related Developments coordination with Syria on this mechanism while, in the north-east, cross-line air ship- During its resumed 43rd regular session (the ses- could be strengthened and expressed con- sion was suspended on 13 March because of the ments of health supplies have been ongoing. cern that aid coming into the country could COVID-19 pandemic and resumed on 15 June) the On 14 June, the World Health Organization Human Rights Council renewed on 22 June the be diverted to terrorist groups. During his announced the delivery of more than 80 tons mandate of the Commission of Inquiry on Syria November 2019 Council briefing, Lowcock of emergency medical supplies to support for one year (A/HRC/43/L.33). said that the cross-border aid delivery sys- the health system in the region. According to tem “is one of the most closely scrutinized… Lowcock’s 19 May briefing, however, since Key Issues and Options in the world” and that “evidence of systemic the Council failed to renew the authorisation The cross-border delivery of humanitarian aid diversion” had not been detected. for cross-border humanitarian aid into Syria assistance remains a contentious issue and will Belgium and Germany are the penholders through Al Yarubiyah, on the Syria-Iraq bor- be in focus before the authorisation contained on humanitarian issues in Syria. der, “supplies [have] reached only 31 percent in resolution 2504 expires on 10 July. Mem- of the medical facilities that had previously bers are anticipating difficult negotiations.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Cyprus

regard, the report welcomed the work of inter- Expected Council Action during the past several months, pushing aside communal initiatives and civil society and encour- In July, the Council is expected to renew the the discussions about the political process. In aged further visits to Cyprus by the HRC special mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in late February, the Greek Cypriot side closed procedures mandate holders. Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 July four of seven existing crossing points on the expiry. Special Representative and head of buffer zone (the demilitarised zone controlled Key Issues and Options mission Elizabeth Spehar is expected to brief by UNFICYP) to prevent a possible spread Since the collapse of the most recent round on the latest UNFICYP report and recent of COVID-19 in Cyprus. At the time, Cyprus of unification talks in 2017, the Council has developments in a closed videoconference. A had no registered cases of COVID-19. In primarily been concerned with the lack of representative from the Department of Politi- the following days, dozens gathered on both any meaningful progress on the political front cal and Peacebuilding Affairs may also brief. sides of the island to protest the closure of and diminishing prospects for advancing the the crossing points. On several occasions, the political settlement of the Cyprus problem Key Recent Developments Greek Cypriot police used pepper spray to anytime soon. Although the Council has tak- The Council last met on Cyprus on 30 Janu- disperse demonstrators in Nicosia, some of en the view that the primary responsibility ary when it adopted resolution 2506, which whom attempted to make their way through for finding the solution to the Cyprus prob- extended the mandate of UNFICYP for six the crossing point at Ledra Street. lem lies mainly with the Cypriot sides, the months. The resolution urged both the Greek In a 5 March statement, UNFICYP Council could consider taking a more pro- Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot sides, and others expressed concern about the disruption to active approach to stimulating the process. involved, to renew their commitment to reach daily life caused by the closure of crossing An option would be to explore changing the a settlement under the auspices of the UN. points. It called on both sides to enhance mandate of UNFICYP, including seeking It also called on the parties to establish an their cooperation in response to the pandem- options for downsizing and for a possible effective mechanism for direct military con- ic. On 16 March, all crossings on the buffer exit strategy. tacts with each other, with UNFICYP as a zone were closed as the island detected its Developments in the political process have facilitator in its liaison role, and to reduce the first cases of COVID-19. Both sides agreed usually played an important role in guid- existing obstacles to intercommunal contacts. to partially open the buffer zone crossings on ing the mandate renewal negotiations. This Over the past six months, there has been 8 June for specific categories of people, while year has seen no significant developments no meaningful progress on the political front their full reopening is expected from 1 July. on the political front, in part because of the and no direct formal engagement between Presidential elections in Cyprus’ north COVID-19 pandemic and in anticipation of the Cypriot leaders in the context of unifica- were initially scheduled to take place in presidential elections in northern Cyprus. To tion talks. The last formal meeting between April but were moved to October because of date, Council members have received few, if the Cypriot leaders under UN auspices restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pan- any, substantial details about UN consultant took place in August 2019. Secretary-Gen- demic. Akinçi, who has been leading the Jane Holl Lute’s engagement with the par- eral António Guterres tried to provide some negotiations on unification during the past ties. Ahead of the mandate renewal in July, impetus for the political process in November five years, will run for re-election. Given the the Council could consider holding a private 2019 when he hosted an informal meeting circumstances, the resumption of the political meeting with Lute on the prospects for prog- in Berlin between Greek Cypriot leader Nic- process is expected only after the elections. ress on the political track. os Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader The Council will continue to monitor the Mustafa Akinçi. In a statement issued after Human Rights-Related Developments situation as well as tensions over the explora- the meeting, Guterres said that the Cypriot At its 43rd session (suspended on 13 March tion for hydrocarbon resources off the coast because of COVID-19 and resumed from 15 to leaders agreed that the current status quo is of Cyprus. As was the case in the past, these 22 June), the Human Rights Council (HRC) con- not sustainable and that they had stressed sidered the report of the High Commissioner for tensions can affect the political process nega- the importance of reaching a solution to Human Rights on the question of human rights in tively and carry potential risks for the security the Cyprus issue within a foreseeable time- Cyprus (A/HRC/43/22). The report, which covers situation in the region. frame. Guterres also noted that he would be the period from 1 December 2018 to 30 Novem- ber 2019, observed that the Greek Cypriot and willing to explore the possibility of organis- Council Dynamics Turkish Cypriot leaders met informally with the ing an informal meeting with Cypriot par- Secretary-General on 25 November 2019, agree- Cyprus remains a low-intensity issue on the ties and the three guarantor powers (Greece, ing that “achieving a comprehensive and durable Council’s agenda. Among the members with Turkey, and the UK). The negotiations have settlement within a foreseeable horizon was of a special interest in Cyprus and who follow remained at an impasse since the collapse the utmost importance to the future well-being the issue closely are France, Russia, and the of both communities and that the status quo was of the latest round of unification talks in the UK. The latter is also one of the guarantor unsustainable”. The report noted, however, that middle of 2017. despite some positive developments, “the divi- powers under the 1960 treaty guaranteeing The response to the COVID-19 pandemic sion of Cyprus still hinders the full enjoyment of ... the independence, territorial integrity, and has been the most prominent issue in Cyprus human rights and fundamental freedoms…”. In this security of Cyprus.

UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2506 (30 January 2020) extended the mandate of UNFICYP for six months. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/23 (7 January 2020) was on UNFICYP. S/2019/883 (14 November 2019) was on the Secretary-General’s good offices in Cyprus.Security Council Press Statements SC/13980 (9 October 2019) reiterated the importance of the status of the city of Varosha as set out in previous Security Council resolutions. SC/13722 (27 February 2019) welcomed the 26 February 2019 meeting between Cypriot leaders and the progress made on confidence-building measures.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Cyprus

While the Council is united in its support mandates of missions where progress on the Cypriot-owned to achieve lasting results. for the political process, members diverge on political track is absent. During past man- Most Council members seem wary of initi- the conditions and timeframe for the unifica- date renewal negotiations, the US has sup- ating drastic changes to the mission’s man- tion talks. Some seem to share the view that ported a comprehensive strategic review of date and size. In the absence of progress in this process cannot be open-ended and that the mission and timed benchmarks for an unification talks, the US position might gain the Council could apply pressure on the par- exit strategy tied to the political process. On more support from other members that have ties to revive the negotiations. the other hand, Russia has strongly opposed been cautious on this issue. Russia is likely to The US has emphasised that peacekeep- any attempt to exert pressure on either side oppose any changes to the status quo. ing missions must support political processes and to affect the negotiations, maintaining and that the Council should reconsider the that the process must be Cypriot-led and

Climate and Security

Expected Council Action of climate change, observing that it heightens The ten Council members that organised Germany plans to convene a ministerial-level the chance of conflict over water, which can the 22 April Arria-formula meeting held a vir- open debate on climate and security in late lead to increased displacement and migration. tual meeting with Secretary-General António July. A Council product is a potential out- Getschel appealed to the Council to adopt Guterres on 22 June to discuss climate come of the meeting. Given that the extraor- a resolution formally recognising climate change and security. During the meeting, dinary and provisional measures implement- change as a threat to international peace and they emphasised the importance of improv- ed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic security. ing the information the Council receives on may still be in place, an open videoconference On 22 April, an Arria-formula meeting climate-related security risks and noted that (VTC) may be held instead of an open debate, was held via VTC on “Climate and secu- the UN system needed to enhance its readi- with statements by non-Council members rity risks: the latest data”. The meeting was ness to respond to such risks. submitted in writing. co-organised by Belgium, the Dominican In recent years, the Security Council has Republic, France, Estonia, Germany, Niger, begun to integrate climate-security language Key Recent Developments Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, into its formal products. Since 2017, the need The Security Council last held a thematic dis- the UK, and Viet Nam. The briefers were for risk assessments and management strate- cussion on climate-security matters in Janu- Under-Secretary-General DiCarlo; Robert gies with regard to the destabilising effects ary 2019 under the Dominican Republic’s Malley, President and CEO, Internation- of climate change and other ecological fac- presidency. That was an open debate on the al Crisis Group; and Dan Smith, Director, tors has been incorporated into Council out- theme “Addressing the impacts of climate- Stockholm International Peace Research comes on the Lake Chad region, Mali, Soma- related disasters on international peace and Institute. DiCarlo described how the Depart- lia, Central Africa, West Africa and the Sahel, security”. Briefings were provided by Rose- ment of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Sudan as well as in the thematic reso- mary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for (DPPA) has integrated climate change into lution that the Council adopted on “Silenc- Political and Peacebuilding Affairs; Achim its mediation efforts as appropriate; in this ing the Guns in Africa” in February 2019. Steiner, UN Development Programme respect, she referred to the UN’s mediation In renewing the mandate of the UN Orga- (UNDP) Administrator; Pavel Kabat, Chief between farmers and pastoralists contesting nization Stabilization Mission in the Demo- Scientist of the World Meteorological Orga- resources in West Africa. Malley emphasised cratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) in nization; and Lindsay Getschel, a research that the “impact of climate change on con- December 2019, the Council also recognised assistant in the Stimson Center’s Environ- flict is context-specific, which is why…mar- the adverse effects of climate change, ecologi- mental Security Program. DiCarlo described rying granular, field based political analy- cal changes, and other factors on the stabil- efforts to enhance the analytical capacities sis…with climate expertise could produce ity of the Democratic Republic of Congo of the UN system to assess climate-securi- the most effective conflict prevention out- (DRC) and welcomed the “leadership of the ty risks. Steiner described UNDP projects comes”. Smith underscored the need for DRC in the development of national strate- being undertaken to help countries and the UN to “promote climate risk awareness gies to address these issues”. During the cur- areas vulnerable to climate change—such [internally]…develop a systemic approach to rent year alone, climate-security language as the Maldives and countries in the Carib- managing climate-related security risk…and has been integrated into a presidential state- bean—adapt to climate-related risks. Kabat embed climate issues in conflict prevention ment on the UN Office in West Africa and the emphasised the many destabilising impacts and peacebuilding”. Sahel, the reauthorisation of the AU Mission

UN DOCUMENTS ON CLIMATE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2525 (3 June 2020) established UNITAMS. S/RES/2520 (29 May 2020) re-authorised AMISOM. S/RES/2502 (19 December 2019) extended the mandate of MONUSCO for one year. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2020/2 (11 February 2020) was on the UNOWAS. S/PRST/2011/15 (20 July 2011) was the Council’s only thematic outcome to date on climate change and security. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8451 (25 January 2019) was an open debate during the Dominican Republic’s presidency on “Addressing the impacts of climate-related disasters on international peace and security”.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Climate and Security

in Somalia (AMISOM), and the resolution and security”, only five UN member states out of example, the Secretariat, the DPPA and establishing the UN Integrated Transition 75 included in their statements a recognition of a the Peacebuilding Commission) to develop Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). gender perspective as relevant in the response to risk management strategies for the security climate-related security risks. impacts of climate change. Women, Peace and Security In addition to briefings from UN officials, Developments Key Issues and Options the Council could also consider requesting a In his 9 October 2019 report on women, peace Key issues that may be raised by Council briefing from a climate-security expert from and security, the Secretary-General recognised that climate change will worsen complex emer- members and other member states during a think tank, university, or NGO who can gencies, affecting women and girls dispropor- the debate include: describe linkages between climate change tionately. He said that there is “an urgent need • the need to enhance understanding and peace and security and present options for better analysis and concrete, immediate about the security implications of climate for the role the Council could play in tackling actions to address the linkages between climate change; these issues. change and conflict from a gender perspec- tive.” In response to this call, on 8 June, the UN • the importance of developing the analyti- Environment Programme, UN Women, the UNDP, cal capacities of the UN system to assess Council Dynamics and the DPPA published a report on “Gender, Cli- climate change-related security threats, Climate change and security is a controversial mate & Security: Sustaining inclusive peace on provide the Security Council with useful issue in the Council. Most Council members the frontlines of climate change”. The report is information about these threats, and sup- currently champion the organ’s engagement based upon the premise that the results of cli- mate change aggravate existing conditions that port states and regional organisations in on this issue. They have emphasised that fac- threaten peace and security. It goes on to argue developing and implementing actionable tors such as drought, water scarcity, food that the impact of and response to these threats plans to address them; insecurity, and desertification that are caused are partially determined by gender norms. Draw- • the importance of developing synergies or exacerbated by climate change increase the ing from case studies in Africa, Asia and Latin among states, regional and sub-regional risk of violent conflict. They believe that there America, the report gives recommendations with regard to three interlinked goals: climate action, organisations, and the UN system in man- should be a more systemic integration of cli- gender equality, and peace and security. In order aging and mitigating climate change-relat- mate-related security risks into the Council’s to achieve these goals, an understanding of the ed security risks; and work. gender dimension of climate-related security • the need to determine how the Security However, Russia, China and the US have risks is key, according to the report. One of the Council, the peace operations it mandates, strong reservations about the Council’s recommendations of the report is ensuring “that gender considerations are appropriately reflected and UN Country Teams can best collabo- engagement on this issue. Russia and China in debates and deliberations on emerging policy rate to address such risks. have expressed concern that Council involve- on climate-related security risks”. The report fur- One option that is being considered is to ment encroaches on the prerogatives of other ther recommends the integration of climate con- pursue an outcome on climate change and UN entities, which they maintain are better siderations into the National Action Plans (NAPs) security that could focus on enhancing the equipped to deal with this issue. Russia also for the implementation of resolution 1325 on women, peace and security; it points out that at information that the Secretariat provides believes that this is essentially a sustainable the moment, only 17 out of 80 NAPs refer directly to the Council on climate-security risks; development matter, with only tangential to climate change. During the 25 January 2019 strengthening the capacity of UN entities links to international peace and security. The open debate under the presidency of the Domini- in the field to analyse and respond to these US has resisted efforts to incorporate climate- can Republic on “Addressing the impacts of risks; and developing synergies between the security language in Council outcomes on climate-related disasters on international peace Security Council and other UN entities (for Iraq, Haiti and other matters.

Women, Peace and Security

Expected Council Action Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, in place, the open debate is likely to be held In July, the Security Council is scheduled to Pramila Patten, is expected to brief. Repre- as an open videoconference and statements hold its annual open debate on conflict-relat- sentatives of civil society are also likely to par- by non-Council members would be submit- ed sexual violence at ministerial level, focus- ticipate. No formal outcome is anticipated at ted in writing. ing on accountability and the implementation this point. If the measures implemented in of a survivor-centred approach. The Special response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still

UN DOCUMENTS ON WOMEN, PEACE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2511 (25 February 2020) renewed the Yemen sanctions regime for a year; it was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia). S/RES/2498 (15 November 2019) extended various elements of the Somalia sanctions regime until 15 November 2020. S/RES/2467 (23 April 2019) was on conflict-related sexual violence; it was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia). S/RES/1960 (16 December 2010) established the monitoring, analysis and reporting arrangements on conflict-related sexual violence.S/RES/1888 (30 September 2009) established the position of Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict. S/RES/1820 (19 June 2008) addressed sexual violence in conflict and post-conflict situations. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/487 (9 June 2020) was the annual report on conflict-related sexual violence. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8514 (23 April 2019) was the annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence and the adoption of resolution 2467.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Women, Peace and Security

Key Recent Developments Resolution 2467 of 23 April 2019 on response to conflict-related sexual violence”. Conflict-related sexual violence, as defined conflict-related sexual violence contained a The office emphasised that measures taken in the Secretary-General’s annual reports, request to the Secretary-General to include in to combat the pandemic had already begun “refers to rape, sexual slavery, forced pros- his next annual report “a gap assessment and to disrupt the work of the UN, including the titution, forced pregnancy, forced abortion, recommendations […] on how the Security monitoring, analysis and reporting arrange- enforced sterilisation, forced marriage and Council can strengthen and monitor imple- ments on conflict-related sexual violence any other form of sexual violence of com- mentation of relevant commitments by par- established by resolution 1960 of 16 Decem- parable gravity perpetrated against women, ties to conflict as well as on how the UN can ber 2010. men, girls or boys that is directly or indirectly better support local, national, and regional According to estimates by OCHA, less than linked to a conflict”. The position of Special efforts to address the needs of survivors of 1 percent of contributions to the UN’s human- Representative on Sexual Violence in Con- sexual violence in conflict”. The annual itarian plans are directed towards the preven- flict was established in resolution 1888 of 30 report concludes that compliance by conflict tion of and response to sexual and gender- September 2009. parties with the Council’s normative frame- based violence. A reprioritisation of resources As in previous years, the Secretary-Gener- work “remains low after a decade of concert- by donors, countries and the UN due to the al’s annual report focuses on countries where ed focus”. pandemic may result in even greater funding verifiable information was obtained. It pro- In resolution 1820 of 19 June 2008, the shortfalls, according to the policy brief. vides analysis and recommendations on sex- Council expressed its intention to consider Arguing that the fight against impunity is ual violence in countries affected by conflict the use of targeted sanctions against perpetra- essential in deterring and preventing such (Afghanistan, the Central African Republic tors of conflict-related sexual violence. Of the crimes as well as in providing redress for [CAR], Colombia, the Democratic Repub- 14 Security Council sanctions regimes, seven survivors, the policy brief also addresses the lic of the Congo [DRC], Iraq, Libya, Mali, include explicit designation criteria for these expected detrimental effects the pandemic Myanmar, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan crimes: CAR, DRC, Libya, Mali, Somalia, will have on accountability for conflict-relat- [Darfur], Syria, and Yemen), in post-conflict South Sudan and Yemen. In total, 13 individ- ed sexual violence. Those include the judicial situations (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Côte uals (under the CAR, DRC, Mali, and South systems’ current lack of capacity to respond d’Ivoire, Nepal, and Sri Lanka), and “other Sudan sanctions regimes) and four entities to crimes. situations of concern”, including Burundi (under the CAR and DRC sanctions regimes) The Council held its previous annual open and Nigeria. have been listed under these criteria so far. debate on conflict-related sexual violence on As has been the case since 2012, the During the negotiations leading up to 23 April 2019. Resolution 2467, drafted by annual report also contains an annex listing the 15 November 2019 adoption of resolu- Germany, was adopted during the debate, “parties credibly suspected of committing tion 2498 on the Somalia sanctions regime— with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions or being responsible for patterns of rape or which already included “planning, directing (China and Russia) following difficult nego- other forms of sexual violence in situations or committing acts involving sexual and gen- tiations, including veto threats by China, Rus- of armed conflict on the agenda of the Secu- der based violence” among its listing crite- sia and the US. Contentious issues included rity Council”. It names parties in the CAR ria—Germany proposed adding a request language on sexual and reproductive health (six non-state actors), the DRC (21 non- for the Special Representative on Sexual Vio- rights and the establishment of a formal state actors and two state actors), Iraq (one lence in Conflict to “share relevant informa- Council mechanism on conflict-related sex- non-state actor), Mali (five non-state actors), tion” with the 751 Somalia Sanctions Com- ual violence, both of which were not accept- Myanmar (one state actor), Somalia (one mittee, which was included. able to some members and were ultimately non-state actor and three state actors), South On 25 February, the Council adopted not included in the resolution. Sudan (four non-state actors and two state resolution 2511, renewing the Yemen sanc- actors), Sudan (two non-state actors and tions regime with 13 votes in favour and two Key Issues and Options two state actors), and Syria (five non-state abstentions (China and Russia). The Coun- An ongoing issue for the Council is how to actors and two state actors) as well as Boko cil reaffirmed that conflict-related sexual -vio consolidate progress in the implementation Haram under “other parties of concern on lence falls under an existing sanctions desig- of successive resolutions on conflict-related the agenda of the Security Council”. States nation criterion that encompasses violations sexual violence. One option is to increase the listed in the annex are prohibited from con- of international humanitarian and human direct interactions between Council mem- tributing to UN peace operations. If an actor rights laws. During the negotiations, Belgium bers and the Special Representative on Sex- “has made formal commitments to adopt had proposed adding a separate designation ual Violence in Conflict. That could include measures to address conflict-related sexual criterion for the commission of conflict-relat- briefings to the Council in open or closed for- violence”, it is marked in the annex as such. ed sexual violence, but this was not agreeable mats and to its subsidiary bodies, including In order to be removed from the annex, an to China and Russia. sanctions committees. actor has to cease violations and implement On 22 May, the Office of the Special Other issues include strengthening preven- its formal commitments. Only one party, the Representative on Sexual Violence in Con- tion of and response to conflict-related sexual Forces Républicaines de Côte d’Ivoire, has flict published a policy brief on “Implica- violence; addressing the issue in the context of been delisted so far. tions of COVID-19 for the prevention of and terrorism, human trafficking, and as a tactic of

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 Women, Peace and Security war; the accountability of perpetrators; access perpetrated. Where such criteria exist, the current divisions among Council members to services and judicial proceedings for survi- Council could strengthen efforts to sanction on the issue of conflict-related sexual violence. vors; and children born of war. perpetrators. In renewing the mandates of Council members interested in advancing The Council could call upon state and panels of experts assisting sanctions commit- the agenda might therefore avoid aiming for non-state actors to make “formal commit- tees, the Council could make sure that, where a Council product at this stage and focus on ments to adopt measures to address conflict- relevant, the experts are requested to have the implementation of the existing norma- related sexual violence”, as required for del- gender expertise. tive framework. However, the negotiations isting from the annex of the annual report, When negotiating mandate renewals of and vote on the resolution demonstrated that and request the Secretary-General to inform peace operations, Council members could elected members are prepared to invest politi- the Council on compliance with these com- ensure that, where pertinent, language sup- cal capital to advance their agenda. mitments in his reporting. porting the deployment of gender advisers The US is the penholder on conflict-relat- Another option for the Council is to and women’s protection advisers is included. ed sexual violence. The Dominican Republic expand the designation criteria in all rel- and Germany are the co-chairs of the Infor- evant sanctions regimes for conflict situa- Council Dynamics mal Experts Group on Women, Peace and tions where sexual violence is persistently The adoption of resolution 2467 showed the Security.

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action A recent resurgence in violence has, however, has been considerable; border closures and In July, the Council is expected to renew undermined the process. reduced availability of food have led to price the 2127 Central African Republic (CAR) The security situation in the CAR remains increases, and social distancing measures sanctions regime, which expires at the end precarious. A number of violent clashes have caused urban transportation costs to of the month; the mandate of the Panel of throughout the spring in the CAR’s north- rise substantially. Experts supporting the 2127 CAR Sanctions east as well as violence in and around the Despite security- and COVID-19-related Committee expires on 31 August and is also towns of Bria and Ndélé have left dozens dead concerns and the recent uptick in violence, expected to be renewed in July. and displaced over 2,000 people. MINUSCA presidential, legislative and local elections are The mandate of the UN Multidimen- announced on 17 May that it was launching scheduled for December 2020 and early 2021. sional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Operation “Igana siriri“ (“Bringing Peace” in The Secretary-General’s most recent report the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) the local Sango language) in Ndélé to help noted that the elections “will be affected by expires on 15 November. stabilise the situation. On 17 June, MINUS- the challenges of organizing a sensitive politi- CA announced another operation in coordi- cal process in the midst of a global pandemic” Key Recent Developments nation with the Central African armed forces and commended the CAR’s electoral authori- On 22 June, the Security Council convened (FACA) to end violence against civilians in ties for publishing a revised electoral calen- an open videoconference (VTC) meeting, fol- western CAR committed by the 3R (Retour, dar that clearly recognises these challenges lowed by a closed VTC session, on the Sec- réclamation et réhabilitation) armed group. but adheres to prescribed constitutional retary-General’s latest report on MINUSCA. The difficult humanitarian and socio- timelines. On 16 May, the UN Development Under-Secretary-General for Peace Opera- economic situations have been further Programme (UNDP) announced that reg- tions Jean-Pierre Lacroix was joined by Matias exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. istration forms, critical to the authorities for Bertino Matondo, AU Special Representative Approximately 2.6 million people require establishing a voters’ list, had arrived at Ban- and head of the AU Office in the CAR, and humanitarian assistance in CAR, with gui airport. Another 32 tonnes of registration Koen Vervaeke, Managing Director for Africa 697,000 civilians internally displaced and materials were delivered to Bangui on 15 June. at the European External Action Service of another 593,000 people having sought ref- the European Union. Lacroix told members uge outside CAR. According to the Secre- Sanctions-Related Developments that despite the increased challenges present- tary-General’s most recent report, the CAR In January, negotiations on the renewal of sanc- tions proved to be difficult, with the main points ed by the COVID-19 pandemic, CAR con- government has put in place several mitigat- of disagreement revolving around the question tinues to make progress on the implementa- ing measures for COVID-19, and the num- of whether or not to ease the arms embargo on tion of the Political Peace Agreement, which ber of confirmed cases remains relatively low the CAR government. For several years, CAR gov- was signed in Bangui by the CAR government in the country. The impact of the pandemic ernment officials have requested that the arms and 14 armed groups on 6 February 2019. on the socio-economic situation, however, embargo on their armed forces be lifted. In 2019,

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2507 (31 January 2020) renewed the CAR sanctions regime until 31 July 2020 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the CAR Sanctions Committee until 31 August 2020. S/RES/2499 (15 November 2019) extended the mandate of MINUSCA and the authorisation to use all means to provide operational support to MINUSCA until 15 November 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/124 (14 February 2020) was on MINUSCA. Security Council Letter S/2019/930 (6 December 2019) contained the Secretary-General’s assessment of progress achieved on the key benchmarks the Council established for arms embargo measures in the CAR. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8728 (20 February 2020) was a briefing on the latest Secretary-General’s report on MINUSCA.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Central African Republic Security Council Report Staff Karin Landgren Executive Director wide consensus amongst Council members on independent expert on human rights in the CAR, Joanna Weschler the need to accommodate some of these con- Yao Agbetse, said that at least 80 percent of 446 Deputy Executive Director cerns about the arms embargo resulted in the violations in 2019 were due to armed groups. Vio- Shamala Kandiah Thompson amendment of the sanctions regime in resolu- lations had increased since January with a series Deputy Executive Director tion 2488 of 12 September 2019. The resolution of attacks in Ndélé, some of which intentionally exempts, after notifying the 2127 CAR Sanctions targeted civilians. Paul Romita Senior Policy Analyst Committee, supplies of non-lethal military equip- ment intended for humanitarian or protective Alina Entelis Policy Analyst use and supplies to the CAR security forces of Key Issues and Options weapons with a calibre of 14.5mm or less that are Teale Harold intended solely for the support of or use in the The further lifting of the arms embargo and Policy Analyst CAR security sector reform process. Resolution the length of the sanctions regime renew- Lindiwe Knutson 2507, renewing the sanctions regime, passed by al and that of the mandate of the Panel of Policy Analyst a vote of 13 in favour to none against. China and Experts supporting the 2127 CAR Sanc- Russia, citing their view that the Council should Robert Schupp tions Committee will be key issues during the Policy Analyst do more towards the complete lifting of sanctions upcoming negotiations. Council members on the CAR government, abstained. This was a Vladimir Sesar departure from previous unanimous renewals of may want to take account of the Secretary- Policy Analyst the sanctions regime. General’s report on the key benchmarks of Vanessa Tiede Another issue that came up during the Janu- the arms embargo in order to assess progress. Policy Analyst ary negotiations was the duration of the sanctions They may also want to consider renewing Benjamin Villanti regime’s renewal. Given the upcoming elections the mandate for 12 rather than six months to Policy Analyst in December 2020 and early 2021, some Council members raised concerns that renewing the man- avoid concerns that the following mandate Robbin VanNewkirk Website Manager date for one year might lead to the politicisation renewal could be politicised during the run- of the next mandate renewal, as it would coincide up to the elections. Audrey Waysse with the run-up to the elections. Resolution 2507 Operations Manager requested the Secretary-General to assess the Council and Wider Dynamics Maritza Lopez progress achieved by the CAR authorities on the Administrative Assistant key benchmarks of the arms embargo no later There is consensus on the Council in support Anna Haven than 30 June 2020. It further requested the CAR of the Political Peace Agreement. However, Research Assistant authorities to report by 30 June 2020 on prog- differences regarding CAR sanctions persist. ress made in security sector reform; the disarma- Several Council members are of the view that Security Council Report is a non-profit ment, demobilisation, reintegration and repatria- the sanctions regime continues to promote organisation supported by the Governments of tion process; and the management of weapons Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, and ammunition. security in the CAR and can also serve to Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Indonesia, Ireland, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, pressure the parties to implement the peace the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, agreement, while other members have argued Portugal, Republic of Korea, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Human Rights-Related Developments that more progress should be made towards Switzerland, Turkey and United Arab Emirates, On 18 June, the Human Rights Council held a the complete lifting of the arms embargo. The and Carnegie Corporation. high-level interactive dialogue on the human difficult negotiations and subsequent vote on Design Point Five, NY rights situation in the CAR as part of its resumed 43rd session which had been suspended on 13 resolution 2507 renewing the CAR sanctions March due to the COVID 19 pandemic. Nada Al- regime ahead of its 31 January expiry dem- Security Council Report 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 Nashif, the Deputy High Commissioner for Human onstrated such divergences of opinion. Unlike New York NY 10017 Rights, noted the positive developments con- previous unanimous renewals of the sanctions nected to the February 2019 Peace Agreement, Telephone +1 212 759 6394 regime, China and Russia abstained on the Fax +1 212 759 4038 particularly progress in formally establishing the Web securitycouncilreport.org Truth, Justice, Reparation and Reconciliation resolution, arguing that the Council should whatsinblue.org Commission. However, she expressed concern do more to lift sanctions on the government. Follow @SCRtweets on Twitter that attacks on civilians and other human rights France is the penholder on the CAR, and violations and abuses remained “commonplace”, Ambassador Abdou Abarry (Niger) chairs the including 634 incidents between September 2019 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee. and May 2020. During the same meeting, the

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2020