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Home , Dead zone (ecology), Marine conservation

Our Changing : The off the Oregon and Washington Creating an Environmental and

Economic Disaster

by Christopher Colella

Executive Summary

Every summer since 2002, an area with low levels of dissolved , called a “dead zone”, has formed off of the coasts of Oregon and Washington. Dead zones have so little oxygen that they can no longer support most marine . Dead zones are common occurrences in places with large amounts of industrial or agricultural runoff, but Oregon and Washington do not have significant amounts of pollution in the affected areas. The reason for this dead zone is . As global temperatures rise, wind patterns change and this causes along the west of . The upwelling causes blooms that cause a hypoxic zone in the region that is deadly to . acidification also contributes to the problems associated with the dead zone by limiting the ability of certain organisms to repopulate after losses suffered because of . The dead zone is a danger to our environment because it destroys marine habitat and causes massive losses to marine life, particularly to lower levels of the chain that many other species are dependent on for food. The dead zone will also negatively affect the economies of both Washington and Oregon, which are highly dependent on commercial and recreational , viewing, and other maritime activities. These industries will take significant damage if the dead zone persists or worsens. Currently work is being done at Oregon State University to understand how we can better combat the dead zone and address the problems associated with it; Washington has done very little to research or address the dead zone. What must be done in order to correct the dead zone, or at least keep it from getting worse, is to slow and stop climate change, which is the cause of the dead zone, by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to safe levels and investing in the future of our planet.

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Introduction

Every summer for the past fourteen years, a “dead zone”, also called a “hypoxic zone” has formed off the coast of Oregon. “Hypoxia” means a lack of oxygen and is defined as being less than 3-5 milligrams of dissolved oxygen per liter of (depending on what the usual levels of oxygen are in the given area), and can become “anoxia” (“no oxygen”) if there is less than 0.5 milligrams of dissolved oxygen per liter. Dead zones are areas of ocean water with so little dissolved oxygen that they cannot support most marine life, causing massive losses of marine life and having major impacts on the marine of the Pacific Northwest. This paper will look into the causes of this dead zone and others around the world. It will also investigate what the impact of the dead zone has been and will be in the future, both environmentally and economically. Finally, I will look at what is being done and what can be done about the dead zone at the policy level. This event is unprecedented and is a disaster for both Washington and Oregon, and eventually may have devastating environmental and economic effects on a global scale.

A Brief Overview of Other Dead Zones in the World

Most Dead zones are caused by agricultural and, sometimes, industrial runoff. Of the hundreds of dead zones in the world, most of them are caused by and other pollutants pumping through rivers and streams and emptying into lakes and oceans. Nutrients in this runoff cause large blooms of algae that reach too high of a population for the ecosystem to sustain. After consuming all of the nutrients, the algae die, sink to the bottom, and begin to decompose. The process consumes oxygen from the water and, with millions of decomposing algae contributing, leaves the water unlivable for marine life. , crabs, and other faster animals will be able to swim, crawl, or propel themselves away to more oxygen- rich , but slower animals or ones that are stationary, such as slugs, barnacles, or sea anemones, will, at best, suffer severe stress, or at worst, die. These animals that are slower or

2 immobile generally make up lower levels of the and therefore their death will cause serious damage to food webs and the marine environment if they die or do not breed as they normally do. These dead zones are common in areas of the world where agricultural, residential, and industrial runoff ends up, such as the , , and the .

The Causes of the Dead Zone off the Oregon and Washington Coasts

It is strange that one of these dead zones would occur off the coasts of Oregon and Washington because this area does not have significant pollution in our water, at least when compared to other areas where dead zones are common. In addition to this, the cause of the dead zone has not always been clear, even to scientists. Fisherman Jim Emory said about the dead zone, “there’s all kinds of cycles in the ocean,” passing this off, not as a problem, but an opportunity, seeing as how crab catches have reached record amounts in recent years (Yardley, 2006). Bill Wechter, a crabber said “they say it’s global warming and it’s [former president George] Bush’s fault, and it just goes on and on” (Yardley, 2006). But it is not just fisherman who had doubts about the connection of humans and the dead zone. Jane Lubchenco, a marine ecologist at Oregon State University stated in 2006 that “we can’t say with absolute certainty that this has never happened before” meaning that she was not one hundred percent sure that this dead zone has been caused by humans (Yardley, 2006). The conditions that have caused this hypoxic zone are certainly very uncommon circumstances, but they can be related back to humans, despite not seeming to be the cause at first. If we dive deeper into the issue at hand, a different picture begins to form.

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Although the link between humans and the dead zone can seem to be a bit blurry, upon further investigation we find that human-caused climate change is clearly to blame for it. We can see how the dead zone has been caused by climate change by delving deeper into this issue. The dead zone has been observed and followed every summer since 2002, and has not been seen in historical data before then. The dead zone, as far as we know, has not happened in recent history while humans have occupied the Source: Wikimedia Pacific Northwest. Another marine ecologist from Oregon State University, Francis Chan, said that “people say ‘oh there’s always been dead zones,’ but when I look at the entire data we have, I just don’t see the numbers in the historical record” (Yardley, 2006). The way it works is that anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change has caused changes in the warming of the and , which leads to more unpredictability in weather patterns, notably winds. When wind patterns change, high northerly winds push water that is closer to the surface out into the deeper ocean. Water from deeper in the ocean that is rich in nutrients but lower in oxygen will flow towards the shore to fill in the space left by the water blown away by the winds. This process is called “upwelling” and is deadly to not properly suited for it. The algae will then bloom in the nutrient- rich water, just like in any other soon-to-be dead zone. Two common species of algae that bloom off of the coast are Pseudo-nitzchia spp. and Alexandrium catenella, which produce neurotoxins domoic acid and saxitoxin respectively, making them increasingly hazardous to marine life and even human health (Washington DF&W, n.d.). The only other times geological data shows similar conditions were during the two warming periods that ended the last age. Both times experienced marine die-offs and were caused by rising global temperatures, so it is a safe assumption that rising global temperatures are causing this dead zone, and that we should expect harm to marine life. Jane Lubchenco, who previously had said that she was not sure about the climate change link, said that she is

4 almost completely sure it is caused by climate change, adding that “low-oxygen zones off the northwest coast appear to be the new normal” (Weiss, 2008). Even though humans do not appear directly responsible for the dead zone like in many other cases, such as the Gulf of Mexico or Chesapeake Bay, we are directly responsible for the warming of the atmosphere that is causing a shift in worldwide weather patterns. Despite some uncertainty at first, the clear cause of the dead zone is human-caused climate change. Scientists are now in agreement of that fact, however scientists are not certain of what sort of long-lasting effects will be left behind.

Other Changes in the of the Northeast

In order to figure out what sort of long-term repercussions the dead zone will have, we need to first examine other contributing factors to the changing ocean chemistry in the Pacific Northwest. The first of these contributors is an unusual patch of warm water dubbed “the Blob.” Discovered in 2014, the Blob is about 1-4ºC warmer than normal temperature seawater should be in this area under normal conditions (University of Washington, 2015). The Blob is quite large and extends approximately a thousand miles in each direction and is three-hundred feet deep. It does not appear to be caused by climate change, instead it seems to be caused by the Pacific

Source: NOAA Decadal Oscillation, but it does provide us with a fairly accurate sample of what we expect of the ocean in response to climate change. Nick Bond, a climate scientist at the UW-based Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, said that “this is a taste of what the ocean will be like in future decades.” Two other Blobs have since been discovered in southern California and Mexico and in

5 the Bering Sea, which could spell disaster for these areas. These “blobs” of warm water interrupt food webs in the Pacific Ocean and are causing damage to marine ecosystems. The warmer waters are less nutrient-rich and therefore are not an optimal environment for algae and that are at the bottom of the food chain. This could mean hope for the areas suffering from the dead zones. Unfortunately, this hope is short-lived because the Blob does not extend deep enough to warm the deep water that is pushed towards the coast in the upwelling process. In the end, there are two extreme situations, one in which algae cannot grow, and one where too much algae grows, and as a result marine life either dies because of a lack of dissolved oxygen in the water or because food chain disruption, or even both of them. The Blob has plenty of nasty effects on marine ecosystems and is merely a glimpse of what is to come for us, but it is far from the only other contributor to our changing oceans. also has an effect on the dead zone and the marine environment of the Pacific Northwest. Ocean acidification is what happens when in the atmosphere dissolves in water and becomes carbonic acid, lowering the pH of the ocean. This contributes to problems caused by hypoxia. Ocean acidification is threatening because high numbers of marine organisms have highly calcified shells that cannot form if the water is too acidic. Examples of these organisms would be clams, crabs, barnacles, and certain . One of the terrible effects of ocean acidification can be seen already: since 2004, Pacific oysters have not grown in the wild (Kennedy, 2009). It is very disturbing to imagine that the most commonly grown oyster in the world and a major part of the economy of Washington state cannot grow anymore in the wild. What happened to the oysters may soon happen to a great number of marine species off the Washington coast and all around the world. Ocean acidification prevents calcified organisms such as barnacles, clams, and snails from forming strong enough shells to reach maturity. This is not only harmful to the species and ecosystem

6 immediately, but it slows and prevents the regrowth of the ecosystem after a hypoxic event. As years go on and the hypoxic zone persists, only lasting for longer and longer time periods each year as weather gets more extreme, organisms that require a higher pH to make it into adulthood will be appearing less and less due to an inability to reproduce and mature fast enough before the next hypoxic event, further upsetting the balance of the ecosystem. Ocean acidification can also increase the toxicity of certain harmful algal blooms (HABs) that produce dangerous chemicals in addition to consuming oxygen. HABs, which have been recorded off the coasts of Oregon and Washington, can contain algae that produce dangerous chemicals such as and various neurotoxins, increasing risks posed by the hypoxia existing in these areas. Ocean acidification will continue to have devastating effects on our environment, both on its own and in conjunction with other climate change- related events such as dead zones and warm spots in the sea.

The Environmental Impact of Dead Zones in the Pacific Northwest

But certainly this cannot pose an immediate threat to us, right? Climate change is supposed to be a slow process that occurs over the next few centuries, is it not? Well, sadly, we are experiencing the beginnings of what climate change looks like, and we are definitely going to continue seeing the effects of a hypoxic northeast Pacific. Annual death of species that are stationary or slower-moving such as clams or sea cucumbers that cannot escape the hypoxic zone in time is one of these repercussions that will become the new normal. Some marine life, such as fish or lobster, are fast enough that they can escape the hypoxic zone almost as soon as they realize they are not getting enough oxygen, and when oxygen returns to normal, they will

7 return to a feast of dead clams for them to eat. This is why crab populations have actually exploded recently, but it cannot last. Many other creatures, are not so lucky in their ability to move quickly, if at all. On top of that, there is also the impact of fish moving around to new and different areas in order to escape the dead zone. With fish swimming away from the hypoxic zone to new areas they risk upsetting the careful balance of this new ecosystem. Most fish will simply be more abundant in an area where they already were before, hopefully reaching equilibrium with that environment in a few years. But some fish will find territory that has not been visited by their species regularly and could be harmful to the local and animals, outcompeting native animals and leading to ecosystem collapse in these areas outside of the dead zone. This requires that the fish move on to other places, repeating this cycle. Although these short-term effects may seem mild, they can cause serious harm to the marine environment of the Pacific Northwest. These short-term effects of the dead zone are things that we will be seeing annually every year for the next few decades, and depending on what we do to control climate change, may be what we are stuck with in the future, or maybe what we wish we could have been stuck with. The good news is that as long as the dead zone does not get worse, then the long-term effects will be minimal. The bad news is that if climate change continues getting worse, so will the dead zone. If shelled creatures cannot properly breed and reach maturity in time, they will slowly begin dying off and eventually will not be able to return the next year to replace the ones that were lost in the dead zone. This window of opportunity is severely cut short as the dead zone gets worse over the years. If the hypoxic zone continues to grow and expand in size and duration, then there will be less time to rebuild areas under more difficult conditions. The next logical step is that the entire food chain suffers due to the losses at the lower levels and we begin seeing the disappearance of animals higher up the food chain. Larger fish and animals that

8 would normally escape the dead zone are suddenly no longer found in our coastal waters because they starved to death or they permanently migrated away to where there was food. This leaves our coasts devoid of most marine life that is currently there; barren undersea wastelands. These long-term changes of the dead zone will cause environmental damage that leaves us without the that we once had, but the environment is not the only thing that will suffer. The economies of both Washington and Oregon are highly dependent on the marine life our coasts offer and will take a major hit due to the hypoxic zone.

The Economic Impact of Dead Zones in the Pacific Northwest

The effect that the hypoxic zone will have on the environment will be mirrored in a devastating economic impact on Washington state. The vacancy left in the economy by the devastation of marine and fishing markets may not be filled by a new economic market, which can and will severely damage the economic capabilities of the state. Seattle’s maritime industry will take severe hits due to losses in fishing catches, recreation, and wildlife viewing, hits from which it may not be able to recover. Seattle’s maritime industry supports more than twenty-two thousand jobs and contributes $2.1 billion to the local economy every year (Kennedy, 2009). If this industry were to be damaged because of massive die-offs of fish off of the Washington coast, our state’s economic activity would be damaged possibly beyond repair. As mentioned earlier, the Pacific Oyster has not successfully Source: Wikimedia Commons reproduced in the wild since 2004, leading to more towered farming instead of growing it in the wild. The shellfish industry of the west coast,

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especially Washington, is absolutely huge; Willapa Bay provides one sixth of the ’ oysters, and will be severely damaged by HABs, hypoxia, and acidification (Kennedy, 2009). The shellfish industry of the west coast brings in approximately $111 million every year (Kennedy, 2009). Damaging these key industries in Washington will cause significant harm to our local economy, and will ripple out to have a larger effect on the national economy as well. Washington state relies heavily on the ocean for economic benefit. Our economy will be severely damaged if the hypoxic zone is not managed properly. Although Washington will take huge hits if the dead zone gets out of control, we still have plenty of other industries to help keep our economy from tanking in the near future due to environmental disaster. However, our neighbors down south in Oregon do not have as much of a safety net as us and may not be able to recover as easily. The economic impact of the dead zone on Oregon will be much worse than it is in Washington because Oregon has fewer industries other than fishing and related maritime activities. The Oregon State legislature determined in 2010 that recreational fishing and wildlife viewing, along with any related expenses contribute $873 million to the Oregon economy, and would be lost if the dead zone persists (The Oregon State Legislature, 2010). Any sort of reduction in fish Source: NOAA populations will lead to negative effects on the economy from which it may not be able to recover. This is because the food webs of the California Current support of great economic importance to the west coast. The California Current runs along the west coast and supports most, if not all, of our major fisheries along the west coast. Other currents around the world also support major fisheries, such as the in Peru and the Benguela Current in South Africa. The Benguela Current has seen similar dead zones to the one we are experiencing here. A disruption of the food webs and of the marine health off the coast of Oregon would cause intense economic turmoil for the

10 state, even worse than in Washington and California. So, with all the seemingly inevitable environmental and economic turmoil we are going to face, is anyone doing anything about this? Is there anything that can be done about it?

Possible Solutions to the Dead Zone

With the way the current affects the states of Washington and Oregon, you can expect both states to be working hard to research and find solutions to mitigate the problems associated with the hypoxic zone. Oregon has continued to research the dead zone and has made it a priority of their state legislature to examine exactly how this would affect the economy and environment in the state, and hopes to find a solution to the problem. Significant research has been done at Oregon State University on the subject, including designing underwater gliders that save money and work better than traditional techniques. Washington, on the other hand, has done very little to recognize the dead zone or try to find solutions to Source: National Science Foundation it. This could be because Oregon is already doing everything in their power, and the idea is that once they know how to solve it we can just do what they do, or maybe we are too pessimistic about it and do not think there is anything we can do. Some studies have been done at the University of Washington, but other than being offhandedly mentioned in reports, and study done in the early-2000s, there is not much that could be found about the subject. Oregon is doing much more to try to correct the dead zone and see how we can work around it than Washington, but Washington may be doing the right thing by doing nothing about it because there is no apparent solution to the problem. However, just because there is no apparent solution to this problem, does that mean that there is no solution at all? Possible solutions to the dead zone problem off the coast of the Pacific Northwest range from difficult to nearly impossible at the state level, but there are actions that can be taken to

11 help mitigate problems. Because the dead zone is caused by climate change, we could limit statewide, or better yet worldwide, emissions of greenhouse gases, which would hopefully prevent further damage to the ecosystem. One of the causes of the dead zone is climate change, the biggest driver of that being greenhouse gas emissions, so the only way to truly prevent future spread of the dead zone and to possibly eliminate it would be to significantly reduce emissions. Our option to adapt is that we must and are searching for new fishing spots. This is already happening, seeing in recent years have seen record catches of crabs and other fish as we move into previously untapped areas. However, every year, due to the many factors involved in the ocean environment, these change and become more sparse, and we cannot rely simply on adaptation. On the down side, there is not much we can do, but we can still do it; we need to both adapt to the changes and do our best to prevent further change. It is entirely possible that if this issue persists, there will not be any new fishing spots to move to. In a lot of situations involving climate change, we are either told that we need to either prevent changes or learn to adapt, however we have passed a tipping point, and we will need to do our best to prevent further changes and adapt in order to find new ways to make up for the economic losses of a changing planet.

Conclusion

Hypoxic zones are becoming a common occurrence in the Pacific Northwest and in the entire world, and the zones will have devastating effects on our planet, our economy, and our society if something is not done about them. Our decisions regarding what to do about this dead zone and others like it now will have lasting effects for the next few generations. We have seen hypoxic events happen in the past through our studying of layers in the Earth’s crust and of ice and cores, and it almost never ends well. While the greater issues of climate change may seem daunting or not worth it, we are experiencing firsthand the problems that come in the future and we need to get people aware and involved. Because this is a global issue, and we are not the only ones who are facing this type of dead zone; global climate action

12 is not only necessary for the survival of our people and our planet, contrary to popular belief it is necessary for the survival of our economy, we need action, and we need it now.

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References

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