RAND Review: May-June 2017
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May June 2017 RRRREVIEW WHAT WE KNOW AND DON’T KNOW ABOUT SUICIDE PAGE 8 PREVENTING SUICIDE ARE THERE SIGNS? Let’s talk about TRUTH DECAY The crisis of the MEDITERRANEAN Shaping the future of the MIDDLE EAST BOOK 1 TOOL BLOG VIDEO TESTIMONY 2 3 4 5 Picks Five 1: EGAL/GETTY1: IMAGES; 2: CATLANE/GETTY IMAGES; 3: PRAZIS/FOTOLIA; 4: MEDIAPHOTOS/GETTY IMAGES; 5: BAKHTIAR_ZEIN/ GETTY IMAGES 1. Separate Ways 2. Filling the 3. When the 4. Reducing Mass 5. Deterring Brexit negotiations Unmet Needs of Caliphate Falls Incarceration Cyberattacks have focused on Veterans The splintering RAND researchers Management trade, sovereignty, This interactive tool of ISIS should be have been exploring scientist Martin C. and immigration. features data and welcomed. But the effects of Libicki, in testimony But the UK’s decision information about splinter groups correctional presented before to leave the EU also state-level programs can have different education on the House Armed raises important collected in support objectives and recidivism and post- Services Committee defense and security of a study of the operating procedures release employment in March 2017, says questions. needs and well-being from those of the outcomes, and its that it takes more of Massachusetts parent organization, cost-effectiveness. than offensive MORE AT www.rand.org/t/RR1786 veterans and and the world will The results are capability to National Guard/ need to adjust its encouraging. have an effective reserve members. counterterrorism cyberdeterrence MORE AT strategies to address www.rand.org/v161212 posture. MORE AT these differences. www.rand.org/t/TL228 MORE AT MORE AT www.rand.org/t/CT465 www.rand.org/ b170306isis RAND May–June 2017 RRRREVIEW Is suicide preventable? What if we’re looking for 8 solutions in the wrong place? Wilkins Kearney (left) died by suicide in 2016. He was 41, recently married, and— according to friends and family—never displayed any warning signs in the days before his death. RAND research has found that the warning signs that have become a focus of public-service campaigns might not be reliable. Greater focus on mental- health services and family support might be more effective. Voices The Eye on the corrosive danger Mediterranean The of truth decay region faces historic challenges to its safety 4 12 and security. The migrant crisis is just the start Research The Q&A Dalia Giving Taking 2 Briefly 16 Dassa Kaye on 20 a stand against the issues that misinformation are shaping the Middle East RAND By the at RANDom 6 at a Glance 17 Numbers 21 RAND, “demon dialing,” and the movie that shook 6 1 0 2 T R O P E R a president L A U N N News A C O R P O R A T I O N 18 COVER: DRAFTER123?GETTYIMAGES RAND BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL LETTERS REPORTS KAREN ELLIOTT HOUSE (chair), Steve Baeck, Manager Send letters to RAND REVIEW, 1776 RAND reports are available on MICHAEL LYNTON (vice chair), Corporate Communications Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa rand.org for free PDF download or BARBARA BARRETT, CARL BILDT, Monica, CA 90407-2138, or e-mail can be purchased as hard copies. RICHARD J. DANZIG, KENNETH R. 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RICE, MICHAEL [email protected] © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation D. RICH, HECTOR RUIZ, LEONARD D. SCHAEFFER R is a registered trademark. TRUSTEES EMERITI C O R P O R A T I O N HAROLD BROWN, FRANK C. CARLUCCI Research Briefly MERIEL WAISSMAN MERIEL In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity American politics have become so bitterly dysfunctional its role as the sponsor—and chief economic beneficiary—of that they now pose the greatest threat to effective U.S. lead- world order; or realign its domestic and foreign policies to ership in the world, RAND experts warn. focus first and foremost on becoming more competitive in The international order that the United States and its allies the world economy. built from the wreckage of World War II is fraying. The Each of these paths has costs and benefits, and a real an- world has entered a new and turbulent age, the experts swer to America’s problems will likely have to borrow from concluded: “Threats that once came from ‘somewhere’ can them all. But they all share the same first step: Leaders in now come from ‘anywhere.’” Washington need to put aside their partisan differences America faces a “Rubik’s Cube” of international risk—from and reach some agreement over when and where America Russia, China, and the Islamic State to emerging diseases, engages in the world, and how it plans to pay for that. Any- nuclear proliferation, and climate change. It is still better thing less, the experts warned, will only magnify the risks positioned than any of its rivals to address those threats, we already face. the experts wrote, but first it must break the political dead- MORE AT www.rand.org/t/RR1631 lock of Washington. The nation needs a strategic vision, a consensus on the role Support for this RAND Venture was provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors. Special appreciation goes to the Hauser Foundation for its it wants to play in world affairs. It can choose one of three generous gift in support of the “Strategic Rethink” series and to Rita Hauser for plausible paths: turn its attention inward and prioritize encouraging RAND to undertake it. domestic renewal over international engagement; reaffirm 2 RAND.ORG | MAY–JUNE 2017 TURKEY Predominantly Kurdish areas IRAN SYRIA IRAQ 12,000 Futures The Colorado River supplies water to more than 30 million people. It supports billions of dollars in economic activity Implications of and irrigates 15 percent of all U.S. crops. Yet growing de- mand and a changing climate have muddied its future. an Independent That poses real challenges for water managers and planners trying to preserve the Colorado as a lifeline for the Ameri- Kurdistan can southwest. To cut through the uncertainty, RAND The Kurds have become the largest diaspora community researchers recently analyzed not just one possible future, in the world, a nation of some 30 million people without a but 12,000 of them. And they did it over lunch. country of their own. What they have instead is a moun- Water managers, who have been working for years to en- tainous patch of northern Iraq where they run their own sure the river will continue to meet its diverse needs, first schools, patrol their own borders, and dream of an inde- turned to RAND for assistance in 2012. RAND’s approach pendent Kurdistan. put a twist on the usual forecasting methods. Rather than A recent RAND report analyzed what it would mean for try to predict the future and then plan for it, they developed regional stability if the Kurds ever did break away from Iraq their planning options first and then tested how well they and form a new country. It focused especially on how the would work against many different scenarios. three regional powers that share the neighborhood—Iraq, That kind of modeling requires some serious computer Iran, and Turkey—might respond. power; the 2012 study took an entire summer of analysis. In All three have historically opposed Kurdish independence, an unprecedented partnership, RAND researchers joined often violently. Turkey and Iran have their own Kurdish COMPUTER: LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY; COLORADO RIVER: SCOTTSFJ40/GETTY IMAGES SCOTTSFJ40/GETTY RIVER: COLORADO LABORATORY; NATIONAL LIVERMORE LAWRENCE COMPUTER: forces with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to populations and have been wary of any independence demonstrate how high- movement spreading. speed supercomputers could revolutionize such But both have established investment and trade ties with planning. the Kurds in northern Iraq, ever since a no-fly zone estab- lished their enclave in 1991. Turkey, especially, might prefer They asked water man- to have a stable Kurdish state on its southern border, rather agers in the Colorado than rely on Baghdad to keep the peace there. basin to develop five new water-management In fact, Baghdad might be the only regional capital that strategies. They then used would still fight to keep the Kurds as part of Iraq. But a Lawrence Livermore su- it also has to worry about the Islamic State, a financial percomputer to evaluate crisis, and ethnic and political divisions that have split those strategies against the government. It might not have the wherewithal to stop 12,000 possible future them from leaving. scenarios, a total of 60,000 Researchers concluded that a negotiated split of the Kurds simulations. The same analysis that demanded months of from Iraq could be done peacefully, with the conditional computing a few years ago took just 45 minutes with the su- approval of Iran and Turkey.