THE CA GUBERNATORIAL TRANSITION: 7 THINGS THAT SHOULD BE ON YOUR RADAR
1 GAVIN NEWSOM IS NOT JERRY BROWN. Businessman and GOP gubernatorial contender John Cox is still in the running, but the overwhelming favorite to succeed four-time Democratic Gov. Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown is Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom. But a new governor will still mean major changes when it comes to policy and politics in the nation’s largest state and the self-styled heart of the Democratic “resistance.” Newsom is widely viewed as having his eyes on a much bigger prize in Washington. Expect him to use California health care policy−in particular the single payer issue−as a platform for his larger ambitions, and more liberal approaches on issues like homelessness, California’s housing gap and higher education.
2 WATCH THE ECONOMY. Eight years into a historically long economic expansion, California is on track for a $9 billion surplus. But don’t let that fool you: California’s next governor is heading into decidedly uncertain fiscal terrain. As the state Legislative Analyst’s office warned earlier this year, in California, “balanced budgets have been quickly followed by huge deficits.” Economic highs and lows tend to be even higher and lower in California. And there are signs that more volatility could be on the horizon. California is a key spoke in the global trade wheel, and trade tensions with China will bite. Progressives are angling for more government spending on health care, housing and education. California’s tax system is acutely vulnerable to stock market shifts and swings in the national economy. Brown has cautioned about the need to save for a rainy day; will the next governor be able to make the numbers add up?
3 2020 IS ALREADY HERE, WHEN IT COMES TO BALLOT INITIATIVES. The 2018 election is almost history, but a slate of 2020 ballot initiatives is already piling up and will loom over the next two years’ policymaking in Sacramento. Possible 2020 measures already include one to cancel the high-speed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco and a potential millionaire’s tax to fund health programs.
STAY AHEAD OF CALIFORNIA POLICY AND POLITICS For more insight and analysis like this, visit politicopro.com/california 4 THE APPROACH TO SINGLE PAYER HEALTH CARE. If Newsom wins, everyone will be watching how he navigates one of the thorniest issues facing him: single payer health care. Brown never touched it, and rarely talked about it. Newsom instituted single payer in San Francisco, which was revolutionary, and other cities (like Berkeley) are picking up his idea. It could be vital to his national ambitions. But doing it statewide is another thing altogether.
5 THAT VISION THING. Jerry Brown’s legacy is climate change. What would Newsom’s be? He’s talked about the potentially devastating effects of automation and AI on millions of middle-class California jobs, like long-haul trucking, fast food production and security guards. Remember, Newsom was ahead of the curve on gay marriage and on marijuana legalization; he could be ahead on these issues. But they’re not easy to raise, and there’s no bumper sticker approach to talking about them.
6 WILL CHARTER SCHOOLS BE LEFT OUT IN THE COLD? Charter schools bet heavily on Newsom’s Democratic opponent, former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and lost. They have less clout to begin with in Sacramento compared the teachers unions’ power, but will they be totally frozen out?
7 THE BALANCE OF POWER IN SACRAMENTO. Would Newsom be willing to clash with progressive groups on their key priorities in the way the veteran Brown did, particularly when it comes to wielding the veto pen? The Legislature could have a chance to reassert itself, particularly given that it will likely have a more-liberal governor in Newsom.
STAY AHEAD OF CALIFORNIA POLICY AND POLITICS For more insight and analysis like this, visit politicopro.com/california