CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 New harvests improve food security across

KEY MESSAGES

 Harvests are generally average to above average, but vary widely Current food security outcomes, October 2014 from one region to another. Production deficits have been reported in some departments of the regions of Wadi Fira (Arada), Guera (Melfi, , and Mangalmé), Est (Oum Hadjer), , and Bahr El Ghazel (BEG).

 Markets are better supplied with newly harvested crops than during the lean season (June-September). Prices are beginning to fall from September levels, improving access to cereals.

 Starting in October, newly harvested crops have improved the food security of poor households in the regions of Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel. The availability of newly harvested crops, combined with milk in certain places will allow households to diversify their food sources from October to December 2014. During this period, the entire country will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Source: FEWS NET  In Kanem, , , Guera, Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel, cereal stocks levels will begin to be exhausted in February, This map shows relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect as in a normal year. Beginning in January/February and March, chronic food insecurity. For more information on the food very poor and poor households will become market dependent insecurity scale, visit: www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale. and will experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity conditions until June. This will cause them to reduce their food consumption to minimally adequate levels. As a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes from July to September.

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government.

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for October through December 2014 Current situation

Rainy season In almost all southern areas of the country, the 2014/2015 rainy season will be better than both last year and an average year. While the rains are currently slowing, the rainy season is still ongoing. Despite the poor spatial and temporal distribution of rains this growing season, continued rainfall during the month of October allowed certain crops such as maize, millet, and sorghum to fully mature. In the Sahelian zone, the rainy season began later than usual and ended in late September in most areas. In a normal year, the rains usually continue through the first dekad (ten days) of October. However, the quantity of rainfall in early October in the region of Wadi Fira (Amzoer and Guereda) encouraged crop growth and allowed most crops to fully mature. Some areas such as , Loug Chari, , and Dagana (Hadjer Lamis) reported significant rainfall in the last dekad of September and early October, which Source: FEWS NET should allow plants whose growth cycle had been delayed to fully mature. Despite the poor distribution of rainfall in this part of the Most likely estimated food security outcomes for January through March 2015 country, the 2014/2015 rainy season was better on the whole than in both 2013/2014 and an average year.

Water availability Water availability is better than both last year and average years. The water level in the Chari River in N’Djamena on August 31, 2014 was 384 cm, slightly higher than on the same date in 2013 (281 cm). Water reserves in intermittent streams (wadis) and other areas in the Sahelian zone (Kanem and Barh El Gazel) should be sufficient to meet animal watering needs through December 2014, as in a normal year.

Locust situation On the whole, the locust situation is calm, which should allow crops to fully mature without much risk. Insects (caterpillars and butterflies) that feed on cotton and sesame capsules have been reported in the Kélo Region, which is normal. Pest treatments have brought the situation under control. Source: FEWS NET Agricultural conditions Agricultural conditions are relatively satisfactory, as most crops are already reaching maturity. Cereal and groundnut harvests are ongoing in the Sudanian zone, where overall production is expected to be above average. In multiple zones, the size of the area planted in crops was greater than last year. For example, in Moyen Chari, an estimated 530,989 hectares were planted, up from 415,511 hectares last year. The increase in the area planted in crops was made possible by the use of government-subsidized tractors. However, rice crops (which require more water) experienced problems due to insufficient rainfall, as few plots of land are flooded. This could cause production levels to fall in Moyen Chari. Off-season crops are already being placed in nursery beds in certain areas, as in a normal year.

Status of pastoral resources Pasture and water resources are still available in all agro-pastoral and transhumant livestock livelihood zones. Animals in these zones have reached their maximum body condition, approximately equal to that of a normal year. Less pasture was available in host areas for refugees and returnees due to pressure from an increased concentration of animals. The presence of approximately 2,000 head of cattle arriving with pastoralists from the CAR could create conflict in the area during the harvest period.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Nutritional situation The nutritional situation is calm in all Figure 1: Comparative trend in SAM admissions, 2012-2014 zones. Malaria and acute respiratory infections are the primary diseases seen during this period, but they are currently in line with normal trends. From January to August 2014, malnutrition treatment centers admitted and treated approximately 103,682 children with SAM (severe acute malnutrition). The region of Kanem reported the highest share of children with SAM during the first 8 months of the year, with 16 percent of admissions from January to August Source: Cluster Nutrition Chad 2014, followed by N’Djamena (12 percent) and Barh El Ghazel (9 percent) (Figure 1).

Population movements With the closing of the borders with Nigeria and Libya due to insecurity related to various conflicts, there have been no significant population movements, except for in the region of Lake Chad, which has received people fleeing Boko Haram in Nigeria (approximately 1,116 people during the month of August). People continue to flow into the region, but in small waves. According to OCHA, the arrival of new people fleeing violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has been sporadic since August. On September 8, a group of 67 people arrived in Mbitoye from Béti, Cameroon in a very weakened physical state.

Household cereal stocks Households are beginning to replenish their cereal stocks, allowing most of them to become less dependent on market purchasing.

Markets Markets in the Sudanian zone currently have abundant supplies, particularly of groundnuts and maize, but also to a lesser extentof sorghum and millet from ongoing local harvests. The market in the capital, N’Djamena, is currently stocked with pearl millet and sorghum from Bousso, Bailli, and Deli (Sud), with prices currently remaining stable. Imported rice is coming primarily from Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cameroon. A significant quantity of maize is exported to neighboring Cameroon via the Léré-Binder roadway. Cereal prices are down due to abundant market supply, as cereal supplies in markets in the Sahelian part of the country are at typical pre-harvest levels. However, prices in Sila and Wadi Fira are more than 8 percent higher than the same period last year due to high demand from transhumant pastoralists, particularly for sorghum. The availability of crops from neighboring areas (Birtawil, Hadjar-Hadid, Mata, Abkhouta, etc.) that have already begun their harvests has kept prices in Ouaddai from rising significantly.

Food security situation The arrival of newly harvested crops on the market has helped improve the food security situation in all zones monitored, reflecting improved food availability and adequate market supplies. Sorghum, maize, groundnuts, and earth peas, for example, are being harvested in the southern part of the country and most of the Sahelian zone. The abundance of these crops on the markets combined with the availability of milk has helped lower prices since October and is improving household food stocks and consumption levels. Poor households are currently able to meet their basic food and non-food needs, and all livelihood zones are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for October 2014 through March 2015 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

 Rainy season: The rainy season will continue through the end of October in much of southern Chad, allowing late- planted crops (those planted in August) to fully mature.  Water availability: Current water levels in ponds and various watering holes should provide sufficient water for livestock until at least December.  Crop production: Irrespective of zone, crop production should be average to slightly above average throughout the country (3 to 3.5 million metric tonnes expected) despite the poor spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, due to larger than usual area planted in crops. As a result, production should be sufficient to meet household foods needs until at least February/March 2015.  Off-season crop production: Crops are currently being placed in nursery beds in all production zones. Crop growth and harvesting should take place as in a normal year, with flooding reported in production zones such as Salamat and Sila.  Pastoral conditions: Average pasture levels should allow pastoralists to feed their animals without difficulty, at least until December. On the whole, livestock body conditions should be above average. As usual, north/south herd movements by transhumant households will start up in November-December. Milk availability is adequate and will be accessible to very poor and poor households in transhumant transit zones and pastoral zones until December. Beginning in January, pasture levels will fall and livestock will gradually move further away from villages, reducing access to dairy products.  Markets and prices: Generally average cereal production levels and no expected shortages or disruptions will keep markets adequately supplied. Roads will also be easier to access after the rainy season, facilitating trade flows between different zones and regions. This situation will be reinforced by the ONASA's (National Food Security Agency’s) extra reserves from 2013 and the harvest of off-season crops, including berbéré (flood-recession sorghum), which is expected to occur in January-March in certain zones, as in a typical year. However, cereal demand will be down as households will primarily consume their own crops from October to December. Livestock prices should stabilize after the Tabaski holiday in October and will rise again in December with the approach of the year-end holiday season. Livestock supplies will remain stable in the Sudanian zone due to the presence of pastoralists and their herds from the CAR and the return of transhumant livestock to the zone.  Closure of the border with Libya: The economic effects of the halt to livestock exports due to the border closure will continue to be felt, particularly in the regions of BET, Kanem, and Bahr El Ghazel, which depend largely on trade with neighboring Libya.  Closure of the border with Nigeria: The recent attacks on Chadian pastoralists in August 2014 and the theft of their livestock did nothing to improve the ongoing situation, which is expected to continue over the coming months, preventing normally significant trade flows between the two countries from resuming.  Income and food sources: Income and food sources should behave as in normal years, particularly in October- December (farm labor, livestock sales, construction work, cereal and market garden crop sales, egg and poultry sales, petty trade, wild plant foods, sales of grass woven products/straw mats/crafts, wood, etc.). Market garden crop production in certain zones will also allow poor households (and market gardeners) to diversify their food sources and increase their income. Most likely food security outcomes The first part of the scenario (October-December) coinciding with the post-harvest period will be characterized by a relatively calm food security situation in all areas of the country. With the availability of newly harvested crops, households will depend on their own production and will not have to resort to any atypical coping strategies. The availability of cereals, market garden crops, milk, and wild foods combined with lower cereal prices during this period will improve poor households' access to food. Above-average availability of market garden crops due to good levels of rainfall will help increase household income and improve food security. The nutritional situation will also improve thanks to above- average food availability. The entire country will therefore experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

In certain regions in the Sahelian zone (Kanem, Bahr El Ghazel, Batha Est, Nord Guera, and Wadi Fira) and the region of Grande Sido in the Sudanian zone, food stock levels will begin falling in February/March due to localized cereal production deficits in some departments in these regions, making households much more dependent on market purchasing. Increased demand will affect cereal prices during this period, preventing very poor and poor households from easily accessing food. Poor households will be forced to increase the use of their usual coping strategies (gathering of wild plant foods, crafts, etc.) to atypical levels to fill the gap. However, these strategies will not fully compensate for the effects that cereal shortages and high prices will have on poor households. Households in the regions of Kanem, Bahr El Ghazel, Batha Est, Grande Sido, Nord Guera, and Wadi Fira will therefore spend less on essential non-food items and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from January to March.

AREAS OF CONCERN

Bahr El Ghazel Sud

Status of the growing season: Significant rainfall was observed in mid-July, as in a normal year. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall was average. Planting increased during the third dekad (ten-day period) of July and the first dekad of August with successive heavy rains during the period. The size of the area planted in cereals was slightly higher than last year and significantly higher than the five-year average due to the use of tractors, which have been subsidized for the third year in a row by the Ministry of Agriculture. Demand for labor will be lower in the outlook period than during the rest of the year as households will consume their own crops, which will account for 25 percent of their food sources.

The phenological status of crops is widely varied. In some places, millet and maize are being harvested, while sorghum crops are fully mature, with a few areas lagging behind. Poor households have faced difficulties planting their crops, because with the delayed start to the rainy season, most had to consume their seeds as they faced a situation of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until September. However, thanks to humanitarian assistance, they were finally able to plant their crops, albeit later than in a normal year. Rodents dug up seeds in certain areas, but the damage was not significant.

The production of off-season crops (primarily market garden crops) began near the end of September, as in a normal year, and will continue until November (nursery establishment). Some vegetables are currently available on the market, but in small quantities. The most commonly grown market garden crops in the zone are tomatoes, garlic, onions, cucumbers, carrots, sorrel, cabbage, and watermelons. Cassava is grown in market gardens in southern Bahr El Ghazel and harvested toward the end of the rainy season.

Pastoral conditions: Pastoral conditions are generally better than in a normal year. Pasture levels are above average and higher than in 2013. With the availability of surface water in some areas, fewer pastoralists will be going to wells during this period.

No disease outbreaks have been observed in the zone. However, a lack of vitamins and certain minerals will lead to deficiencies in transhumant livestock migrating to northern Bahr El Ghazel. There are also cases of internal and external parasites, as in a normal year. Transhumant livestock are currently in northern Bahr El Ghazel (in and around Salal).

More milk is available than in a normal year, improving consumption for poor households who were in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until late September. Poor households' food stock levels (in October 2014) are at their peak and should be sufficient to meet food needs until February/March 2015.

Markets and prices: Supply is up slightly (but not enough to meet all needs) on the Moussoro cereal market with the availability of recently harvested crops from the current growing season. Cereal demand has fallen slightly with the harvest of early crops. The current price (in September) of maize, which is a staple food in Bahr El Ghazel, is higher than in September 2013 (+36 percent) and the five-year average (+24 percent). These higher prices are the result of the 2013 production deficit and high demand from very poor and poor households, who consumed their seeds during the lean season. On the Moussoro market, milk costs an average of 525 FCFA, up from 400 FCFA during the same period last year.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

The Moussoro livestock market is well-stocked due to high demand surrounding the Tabaski holiday in early October, the presence of transhumant livestock, and reduced exports to Libya and Nigeria. Improved pasture conditions in the zone and above-average pasture levels have helped improve livestock body conditions. Average sheep prices rose on the Moussoro market due to the Tabaski holiday. The price of an average sheep rose from 37,500 FCFA in September 2013 to between 40,000 and 42,500 FCFA in early October. This increased pastoralists’ purchasing power, as they can now trade an average sheep for 138 kg of maize, up from 134 kg in September 2013 and the five-year average of 117 kg.

The livestock trade is currently being affected by armed conflicts in Libya and the closure of the border, which has led to significant losses for exporters. Before the border was closed, approximately 400 to 500 heads of camel, sheep, and goats were exported to Libya daily. Now the rate is less than half that. The reduction in trade is also affecting food imports from Libya. In a normal year, more than 90 percent of foodstuffs consumed in Moussoro such as pasta, rice, and macaroni come from Libya. Currently, the number of trucks with foodstuffs arriving at the Moussoro market has been cut in half. The reduction in trade is also affecting neighboring regions like Mao, in Kanem.

Poor households' income is currently higher than during the same period in 2013. Given this growing season's above- average production levels, income from farm labor has increased considerably. Milk sales have increased due to above- average pasture availability and good livestock body conditions. Petty trade has also risen slightly with better-off households earning relatively higher income through the sale of crops (almost double that of a normal year). However, with security problems in neighboring countries (Libya and Nigeria), flows of short-term seasonal migration income and migrant remittances (from permanent migrant workers) are also lower than in a normal year.

Current food security situation Poor households' food security has improved with the availability of newly harvested crops from the 2014/2015 growing season. The concentration of transhumant livestock in the zone and above-average pasture conditions have increased milk supplies on the market, causing prices to fall and improving milk consumption among poor households. Humanitarian assistance in the form of monetary transfers in Bahr El Ghazel Sud has allowed some households to protect their livelihoods (livestock and existing assets such as mattresses, radios, mobile phones, carts, etc.). Poor households are therefore able to meet their food needs without difficulty and are currently facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for October 2014 through March 2015 in Bahr El Ghazel Sud is based on the following assumptions:

 Debts: Poor households who were in a situation of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will have to repay the loans they took out during the lean season.  Seasonal progress: Cumulative rainfall for the beginning of October indicates no anomalies in this zone. Thus, cumulative rainfall totals and rainfall distribution should be slightly better than both last year and in an average years. Most of the rain fell between August and September, with cumulative rainfall totals ranging from 270 to 300 mm for the season. Since millet, the main crop grown in this area, requires 300 to 350 mm of rainfall during the season to complete its growing cycle, there should be sufficient rainfall for millet crops to fully mature.  Crop production: A good spatial and temporal distribution and quantity of rainfall combined with larger areas planted in crops thanks to the introduction of tractors and humanitarian assistance (i.e. seed assistance) will translate into average to slightly above-average levels of crop production starting in October.  Animal production: Pasture and watering hole levels will improve as long as rains continue to fall in October, which will improve livestock body conditions. Thus, the availability of animal products (milk and butter) will remain normal and will fall gradually through the outlook period.  Household incomes: In general, the incomes of poor households will be approximately 18 percent higher than usual during the outlook period for the following reasons: crop sales, growing demand for seasonal farm labor due to larger areas planted in crops with the use of government-subsidized tractors, increased market gardening activities due to greater rainfall totals than in 2013 and average years, and the sale of market garden crops.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

 Food sources: Food sources will behave similarly to a normal year with a slight improvement (+8 percent). Households will depend much more on their own production, making them 5 percent less dependent on market purchasing from October through March.  Household food stocks: Despite the fact that households began replenishing their stocks in October, household food stock levels will be in line with normal years from October through March. The availability of newly harvested crops in October will allow households to replenish their stocks to normal levels during the period. From January to March, cereal stock levels will begin to fall and households will resort to typical livelihood strategies (sales of grass woven products/straw mats/crafts, sales of wood and straw, agricultural day labor, sales of small ruminants, crafts, and wild plant food sales) to increase their purchasing power as they become much more dependent on market purchasing, just as in a normal year. These strategies will behave normally.  Cereal markets: The Moussoro cereal Figure 2. Projected retail price of maize in Moussoro market through market will be well-stocked thanks to March 2015 intra-regional trade flows. Cereal demand will be high in Moussoro due to average to above-average harvests. Demand will remain low from October through December, average from January through March, and above- average from April through the end of September 2015, fueled by the depletion of cereal stocks and the observance of Ramadan (June/July 2015).  Cereal prices: With low demand from October to December, prices will stabilize and fall until February. Beginning in March, cereal prices will rise on the Moussoro market and will Source: FEWS NET continue to rise until the end of the lean period (September 2015). Prices will remain slightly higher than normal (up 7 percent in March 2015) before peaking in August.  Livestock and milk prices: Volumes of small ruminant sales are smaller than in a normal year due to decreased trade flows with Nigeria and Libya with the closing of the borders. The celebration of Tabaski in early October had little impact on sheep prices, which remained at around 40,000 FCFA/head due to the large concentration of transhumant livestock in this area. However, high supply will cause sheep prices to fall to slightly below the average in Moussoro after the year-end holiday season. Terms of trade, which bottomed out in October (with a sheep trading for 76 kg of maize compared with 105 kg in March 2014), will stabilize in November before increasing again to 105 kg of maize/sheep in December with the approach of the year-end holiday season. Milk prices could reach 800 FCFA with the departure of transhumant livestock near the end of October.  Cereal trade and supply: Average to above-average production levels, intra and inter-regional trade flows, as well as the sale of ONASA food stocks will ensure a normal availability of cereal crops on area markets throughout the outlook period. The Moussoro market will receive cereal supplies from Bol (Lake Chad) and N’Djamena according to seasonal trade flows. Major trade flows will begin after the harvest season (October-December) in January, with local market supply coming primarily from neighboring areas.  Locust situation: With no winged locusts reported in the region of Bahr El Ghazel, the situation is expected to remain calm. No local breeding activities are expected that could lead to the presence of locusts. Even with locusts migrating toward northwestern Africa, there should be only minimal damage to crops, as in a normal year.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Incomes of poor households:  Cash reserves: Average cereal production in 2014 generated above-average levels of income from crop sales and on-farm labor earlier this year. As a result, households will have remaining cash reserves from these activities during the outlook period.  Total incomes: In general, total incomes of very poor and poor households will be approximately 20 percent above average during the outlook period. More precisely, incomes from major sources will be shaped by the following trends: o Farm labor: Due to the increase in the area planted in crops, some households will be attracted by the high demand for labor, resulting in above-average incomes from this source. o Livestock sales: Income from livestock sales will be approximately one-third less than normal levels. The number of animals sold will fall due to decreased demand for exports to Nigeria and Libya. From October to December 2014, due to good livestock body conditions and events related to the celebration of Tabaski, Christmas, and the New Year, prices will remain above average. However, prices will be below average from January to March 2015 with decreased livestock exports to Nigeria and Libya. o Construction work: Income levels from this source will be normal despite the fact that young people continue to migrate to gold mining areas in the north, even informally, and despite the presence of water in semi-permanent lakes and ponds, which will remain available until December, as in a normal year. Water levels could remain consistent until January in certain places following excess rainfall in 2014. o Sale of cereal crops: There will be slightly below-average levels of income from this source, with poor households selling fewer crops than usual to avoid the premature depletion of their food stocks, as was the case in 2013. o Remittances: Incomes from this source will be nearly half as much as usual as households produced more crops this year than in a normal year. They will continue to migrate to large cities as in a normal year but without resorting to any unusual coping strategies. o Sale of firewood: Income from this source will remain unchanged, as with the average production levels of cereal crops, households will not need to scale up this activity as a coping strategy.

Other issues: o Wild foods: There will be normal consumption of wild foods due to good levels of rainfall in 2014 resulting in above-average production. o Humanitarian assistance: Deliveries of humanitarian assistance will end in October, but resilience- building programs will continue until February/March 2015. o Nutritional situation: In general, admissions to malnutrition treatment centers in the region were up from July to October, but there were fewer cases in June 2014 (1,047) than in June 2013 (1,656). The level of acute respiratory infections from January to March will also remain similar to previous years. However, with the availability of newly harvested crops, the above-average availability of milk, increased market gardening activities, and better health services and treatment of malnutrition by NGOs, the nutritional situation should improve until late February 2015. Beginning in March/April 2015, the depletion of household food stocks and the appearance of diseases such as measles and meningitis, which are normally seen in the region during this period, will cause more generalized health problems, exacerbating the deterioration in the nutritional and food security situations.

Most likely food security outcomes Household food security will improve in October-December thanks to good cereal production levels, lower cereal prices, and the availability of milk and market garden crops. Households will have easier access to cereals, marking a departure from the difficulties experienced in this livelihood zone since the first quarter of 2014. Poor households will therefore be able to meet their basic food needs from October to December. They will face little difficulty in accessing their usual sources of food and income and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 8

CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Increased market gardening activities from January to March 2015 fueled by humanitarian assistance in the form of agricultural inputs will result in average to above-average production levels. During this period, very poor and poor households will depend much more on their own production, and with greater income than usual, they will even be able to purchase food, considerably improving their access to cereals. Households' ability to cope by accessing food from other sources (milk, wild plant foods, loans) will also be beneficial. Food insecurity will therefore remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until January/February 2015. Beginning in January, households will begin to deplete their food stocks, and despite government interventions already budgeted and planned for the first quarter of 2015, at least 20 percent of households will have to reduce consumption and will face Stress (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. During the lean season, when these households are exposed to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), sufficient levels of different forms of assistance from multiple partners will prevent the situation from declining any further than one of Stress (IPC Phase 2!).

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events in the next six months that could change the most likely scenario Area Event Impact on food security conditions National  Persistent conflicts in Nigeria and Libya could  This will reduce pastoralists' income from slow trade with Libya and livestock exports to January to March and limit the income Nigeria. available to households to meet their food needs during the next lean period.

 The appearance of the Ebola epidemic and its  Market garden crop production will fall from spreading through the region outside of the December to March with fewer able-bodied countries already affected could slow trade workers in households having lost one or with neighboring countries and the rest of the more family members to the disease. Trade world. flows with neighboring countries such as Sudan and Cameroon will also be slowed. Bahr El  Regular sales of cereals at subsidized prices by  This action will facilitate household access to Ghazel the ONASA staple foods. Sud  Cash vouchers  This program would strengthen household purchasing power.  Stable prices  If prices remain stable compared to normal seasonal trends, households will have easier access to cereals on the market and will need to develop fewer coping strategies that could damage their livelihoods.  Above-average transfers of cereals from the  This action will increase market supplies and Sudanian zone to the Sahelian zone could eventually stabilize prices or even cause them to fall.

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios predicting food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Learn more here.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 9