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Chad Food Security Outlook, October 2014 to March 2015

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Chad Food Security Outlook, October 2014 to March 2015 CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 New harvests improve food security across Chad KEY MESSAGES Harvests are generally average to above average, but vary widely Current food security outcomes, October 2014 from one region to another. Production deficits have been reported in some departments of the regions of Wadi Fira (Arada), Guera (Melfi, Abtouyour, and Mangalmé), Batha Est (Oum Hadjer), Kanem, and Bahr El Ghazel (BEG). Markets are better supplied with newly harvested crops than during the lean season (June-September). Prices are beginning to fall from September levels, improving access to cereals. Starting in October, newly harvested crops have improved the food security of poor households in the regions of Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel. The availability of newly harvested crops, combined with milk in certain places will allow households to diversify their food sources from October to December 2014. During this period, the entire country will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. Source: FEWS NET In Kanem, Batha Est, Grande Sido, Guera, Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel, cereal stocks levels will begin to be exhausted in February, This map shows relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect as in a normal year. Beginning in January/February and March, chronic food insecurity. For more information on the food very poor and poor households will become market dependent insecurity scale, visit: www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale. and will experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity conditions until June. This will cause them to reduce their food consumption to minimally adequate levels. As a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes from July to September. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for October through December 2014 Current situation Rainy season In almost all southern areas of the country, the 2014/2015 rainy season will be better than both last year and an average year. While the rains are currently slowing, the rainy season is still ongoing. Despite the poor spatial and temporal distribution of rains this growing season, continued rainfall during the month of October allowed certain crops such as maize, millet, and sorghum to fully mature. In the Sahelian zone, the rainy season began later than usual and ended in late September in most areas. In a normal year, the rains usually continue through the first dekad (ten days) of October. However, the quantity of rainfall in early October in the region of Wadi Fira (Amzoer and Guereda) encouraged crop growth and allowed most crops to fully mature. Some areas such as Dababa, Loug Chari, Haraze Al Biar, and Dagana (Hadjer Lamis) reported significant rainfall in the last dekad of September and early October, which Source: FEWS NET should allow plants whose growth cycle had been delayed to fully mature. Despite the poor distribution of rainfall in this part of the Most likely estimated food security outcomes for January through March 2015 country, the 2014/2015 rainy season was better on the whole than in both 2013/2014 and an average year. Water availability Water availability is better than both last year and average years. The water level in the Chari River in N’Djamena on August 31, 2014 was 384 cm, slightly higher than on the same date in 2013 (281 cm). Water reserves in intermittent streams (wadis) and other areas in the Sahelian zone (Kanem and Barh El Gazel) should be sufficient to meet animal watering needs through December 2014, as in a normal year. Locust situation On the whole, the locust situation is calm, which should allow crops to fully mature without much risk. Insects (caterpillars and butterflies) that feed on cotton and sesame capsules have been reported in the Kélo Region, which is normal. Pest treatments have brought the situation under control. Source: FEWS NET Agricultural conditions Agricultural conditions are relatively satisfactory, as most crops are already reaching maturity. Cereal and groundnut harvests are ongoing in the Sudanian zone, where overall production is expected to be above average. In multiple zones, the size of the area planted in crops was greater than last year. For example, in Moyen Chari, an estimated 530,989 hectares were planted, up from 415,511 hectares last year. The increase in the area planted in crops was made possible by the use of government-subsidized tractors. However, rice crops (which require more water) experienced problems due to insufficient rainfall, as few plots of land are flooded. This could cause production levels to fall in Moyen Chari. Off-season crops are already being placed in nursery beds in certain areas, as in a normal year. Status of pastoral resources Pasture and water resources are still available in all agro-pastoral and transhumant livestock livelihood zones. Animals in these zones have reached their maximum body condition, approximately equal to that of a normal year. Less pasture was available in host areas for refugees and returnees due to pressure from an increased concentration of animals. The presence of approximately 2,000 head of cattle arriving with pastoralists from the CAR could create conflict in the area during the harvest period. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 Nutritional situation The nutritional situation is calm in all Figure 1: Comparative trend in SAM admissions, 2012-2014 zones. Malaria and acute respiratory infections are the primary diseases seen during this period, but they are currently in line with normal trends. From January to August 2014, malnutrition treatment centers admitted and treated approximately 103,682 children with SAM (severe acute malnutrition). The region of Kanem reported the highest share of children with SAM during the first 8 months of the year, with 16 percent of admissions from January to August Source: Cluster Nutrition Chad 2014, followed by N’Djamena (12 percent) and Barh El Ghazel (9 percent) (Figure 1). Population movements With the closing of the borders with Nigeria and Libya due to insecurity related to various conflicts, there have been no significant population movements, except for in the region of Lake Chad, which has received people fleeing Boko Haram in Nigeria (approximately 1,116 people during the month of August). People continue to flow into the region, but in small waves. According to OCHA, the arrival of new people fleeing violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has been sporadic since August. On September 8, a group of 67 people arrived in Mbitoye from Béti, Cameroon in a very weakened physical state. Household cereal stocks Households are beginning to replenish their cereal stocks, allowing most of them to become less dependent on market purchasing. Markets Markets in the Sudanian zone currently have abundant supplies, particularly of groundnuts and maize, but also to a lesser extentof sorghum and millet from ongoing local harvests. The market in the capital, N’Djamena, is currently stocked with pearl millet and sorghum from Bousso, Bailli, and Deli (Sud), with prices currently remaining stable. Imported rice is coming primarily from Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cameroon. A significant quantity of maize is exported to neighboring Cameroon via the Léré-Binder roadway. Cereal prices are down due to abundant market supply, as cereal supplies in markets in the Sahelian part of the country are at typical pre-harvest levels. However, prices in Sila and Wadi Fira are more than 8 percent higher than the same period last year due to high demand from transhumant pastoralists, particularly for sorghum. The availability of crops from neighboring areas (Birtawil, Hadjar-Hadid, Mata, Abkhouta, etc.) that have already begun their harvests has kept prices in Ouaddai from rising significantly. Food security situation The arrival of newly harvested crops on the market has helped improve the food security situation in all zones monitored, reflecting improved food availability and adequate market supplies. Sorghum, maize, groundnuts, and earth peas, for example, are being harvested in the southern part of the country and most of the Sahelian zone. The abundance of these crops on the markets combined with the availability of milk has helped lower prices since October and is improving household food stocks and consumption levels. Poor households are currently able to meet their basic food and non-food needs, and all livelihood zones are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 CHAD Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for October 2014 through March 2015 is based on the following national-level assumptions: Rainy season: The rainy season will continue through the end of October in much of southern Chad, allowing late- planted crops (those planted in August) to fully mature. Water availability: Current water levels in ponds and various watering holes should provide sufficient water for livestock until at least December. Crop production: Irrespective of zone, crop production should be average to slightly above average throughout the country (3 to 3.5 million metric tonnes expected) despite the poor spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, due to larger than usual area planted in crops. As a result, production should be sufficient to meet household foods needs until at least February/March 2015. Off-season crop production: Crops are currently being placed in nursery beds in all production zones. Crop growth and harvesting should take place as in a normal year, with flooding reported in production zones such as Salamat and Sila.
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