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COUNTRY Food Security Update

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COUNTRY Food Security Update WEST AFRICA Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 Atypical rainfall conditions, conflict, and the Ebola outbreak increase food insecurity across West Africa KEY MESSAGES Figure 1. Most likely estimated food security outcomes for October through December 2014 Ongoing harvests are improving household and market stock levels. Despite the late start to the season in several areas, overall crop production levels are expected to be average to above average throughout the region. However, below-average production is expected in Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, northeastern Nigeria, the Central African Republic, and localized areas of other Sahelian countries. Overall, the pastoral situation in the Sahel is satisfactory. However, livestock production could be below average for the second year in a row in several pastoral zones, particularly in eastern Niger, Source: FEWS NET Mauritania, and Senegal. This will cause transhumant livestock in these areas to migrate earlier than usual. Figure 2. Most likely estimated food security outcomes for January through March 2015 With lower production levels and delayed harvests, food insecurity will remain at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels until January 2015 in southeastern Niger, as well as the Senegal River Valley and the agropastoral zone of Mauritania. In Mauritania, the 2015 lean season will also arrive early, contributing to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity between February and March 2015. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity will persist in northeastern Nigeria and the Central African Republic through March 2015 due to the effects of the conflict and poor crop production Source: FEWS NET in these areas. These maps represent relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for For market-dependent households in areas worst emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit the IPC page on the FEWS NET affected by the Ebola outbreak, below-average website for more information. incomes and market disruptions have caused them to begin relying on unseasonal coping strategies to meet basic food needs and consequently, these households are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In addition, households with family members infected by Ebola who are not currently receiving humanitarian assistance are likely facing small to moderate food consumption gaps, equivalent to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). FEWS NET WEST AFRICA FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the [email protected] view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. WEST AFRICA Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 OUTLOOK BY COUNTRY Burkina Faso Crop production could be below-average in the country’s northern agropastoral zone due to recurrent dry spells and infestations of grain-eating birds. These infestations, which are having a more severe than usual impact on local harvests, will expose more than 1,400 households to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity. Moreover, for the second consecutive year, pasture deficits will lead to early seasonal migration by transhumant herds and the start of the lean season for pastoral populations, beginning in December instead of February. Elsewhere, poor households will have normal food access, mainly from household harvests and through market purchases. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected for most of the country between October 2014 and March 2015. To learn more, see the complete October 2014 through March 2015 Food Security Outlook for Burkina Faso. Chad Harvest levels are generally average to above average but vary widely from one region to another. Pockets of production deficits have been reported in some departments in the regions of Wadi Fira (Arada), Guera (Melfi, Abtouyour, and Mangalmé), Batha Est (Oum Hadjer), Kanem, and Bahr El Ghazel (BEG). With the arrival of newly harvested crops, cereal markets are better supplied than during the lean season (June- September). Prices are also beginning to fall compared to September levels, improving access to cereals. Beginning in October, newly harvested crops helped improve the food security of poor households in the regions of Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel. The availability of newly harvested crops, combined with milk in certain places, will allow households to diversify their food sources from October to December 2014. During this period, the entire country will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. In Kanem, Batha Est, Grande Sido, Guera, Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel, cereal stocks levels will begin to be exhausted in February, as in a normal year. Beginning in January/February and March, very poor and poor households will become market dependent and will experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity conditions until June. This will cause them to reduce their food consumption to minimally adequate levels. As a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes from July to September. To learn more, see the complete October 2014 through March 2015 Food Security Outlook for Chad. Mali Overall, cereal production is expected to be average to above average, which will ensure average levels of food availability throughout the country. However, localized production shortfalls due to insufficient rainfall will cause households in the departments of Gao, Bourem, Goundam, and Niafunké and some areas in the northern parts of Koulikoro and Kayes and the Douentza department to deplete their food stocks earlier than usual. The availability of newly harvested crops and the decline in prices that typically results will improve household food access from October through March. In addition, crop sales, market gardening activities, and 20 percent above-average livestock prices will result in average to above-average income levels through at least March. With the availability of food from the October harvest and average to slightly above-average cereal prices, poor households in agropastoral and pastoral zones will have average access to food, enabling them to cover their food needs. The entire country will, therefore, experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity from October 2014 through March 2015. However, the food security situation is likely to deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels in April in rice- producing riverine areas of the Gao and Bourem departments, the lake region of the Goundam department, and Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 WEST AFRICA Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015 the Haoussa area of Niafunké due to decreased crop production following insufficient rainfall during the rainy season. To learn more, see the complete October 2014 through March 2015 Food Security Outlook for Mali. Mauritania With the rains in September failing to spur farming activities in the Senegal River Valley and Agropastoral Zone, poor households are facing large shortfalls in their harvest production and seasonal incomes. Even with the favorable terms of trade for sheep to cereals, they are having difficulty meeting their basic nonfood needs and, thus, will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the end of January. The reduction in cropping (both for flood recession and rainfed cropping) and income-generating activities in both livelihood zones are expected to hasten the start of the lean season (which will begin three months earlier than usual) and lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions in these areas between February and March. Conditions in other livelihood zones are currently evolving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity after the rainy season, bolstered by average seasonal incomes, the availability of fresh crops from recent harvests (in the Rainfed Cultivation Zone and eastern reaches of the Agropastoral Zone), and/or the improvement in pastoral conditions (in pastoral zones). To learn more, see the complete October 2014 through March 2015 Food Security Outlook for Mauritania. Niger Good rainfall accumulation and distribution from late July to late September 2014 combined with a generally calm crop pest situation will lead to average to above-average cereal and pasture production during the main growing season. From December 2014 to March 2015, the availability of irrigated crops will help strengthen and diversify food access and consumption for households currently consuming their own cereal stocks. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity conditions will prevail in October and continue through March 2015 in most parts of the country. However, with poor households earning less income from labor and livestock sales, the department of Nguigmi (Diffa) will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October 2014 through March 2015, despite cash-for-work programs planned for and funded by the government. Beginning in March, agropastoral areas of Ouallam and pastoral areas of Tchintabaraden will also experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) as poor households face difficulties meeting their non- food needs. To learn more, see the complete October 2014 through March 2015 Food Security Outlook for Niger. Nigeria A favorable cultivation season continues in most parts of the country, likely leading to an average to above- average main harvest and increased income for poor households who engage in agriculture labor work. Most households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity during the October 2014 to March 2015 period. For the second year in a row, poor households
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