CHAD Food Security Outlook April to September 2015 Deteriorating food security for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in western Chad KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for April 2014 Boko Haram conflict has extended into Chad, and the number of refugees, displaced persons, and returnees now stands at more than 40,000. Food consumption and livelihoods have deteriorated due to the pressure from new arrivals. Households in host areas (Lac, Kanem, BEG, and Hadjer Lamis) are having difficulties generating income from farming, fishing, and trade due to insecurity. In the west (Kanem, BEG, Lac, and Hadjer Lamis), household cereal stockssouthern Guera, and Wadi Fira have fallen below average. In general, household food consumption is down slightly, and the pastoral lean season has started two months early. The situation will remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) due to ongoing interventions. Households in the Djourf Al-Ahmar Region (western Sila) and northern Guera have depleted their stocks early and are now facing an abnormal seasonal increase in cereal prices and an Source: FEWS NET This map shows relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for atypical decline in livestock prices. They will therefore remain in emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect Stress (IPC Phase 2). chronic food insecurity. Learn more here. Refugees and returnees from the Central African Republic (nearly 150,000 people, according to OCHA estimates) are continuing to receive a range of humanitarian assistance, without which their food security situation would become concerning. Since the start of the year, WFP has continued to regularly provide food coupons to returnees from the Central African Republic, assisting more than 63,770 people in all returnee sites in the south. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. Chad Food Security Outlook Update April to September 2015 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for April through June 2015 Current situation Agro-pastoral conditions According to recent surveys by the Bureau of Agricultural Production and Statistics (DPAS, February 2015), actual production of berbéré (flood-recession sorghum) is down in 7 out of 10 regions. The Hadjer Lamis region recorded the most significant decline (-77.7 percent), followed by Guera (-72.8 percent) and Chari Baguirmi (-62 percent). This is the result of reduced cropping area due to berbéré wilting in some regions. In regions bordering Lake Chad, harvests of cold off-season crops are ongoing, and maize production levels are average to above-average. Market garden crops are ripe and are also being harvested. The third growing season (the hot season) has started, with the first seeds being planted thanks to the irrigation of polder areas. Eggplants are still Source: FEWS NET being planted in areas bordering Lake Chad. In the Ouaddaï region, more onions, garlic, and vegetables (okra, sorrel, tomatoes, and Most likely estimated food security outcomes for lettuce) are being harvested than last year due to an increase in the July through September 2015 area planted. In the Sudanian zone, field clearing work began in early April, as usual, as did plowing with tractors, in preparation for the 2015 main rainy season. Berbéré yields are up in Mayo Kebbi Est (22.5 percent). Off- season rice has been transplanted in Mayo Kebbi Est and Tandjilé Est and is developing normally in the tillering and height growth phase. The pastoral situation has deteriorated in the western part of the Sahelian zone (Kanem, Barh El Gazel/BEG, Hadjer Lamis, and Wayi) due to below-average pasture and water availability following below- average rainfall in 2014. The lean season for animals in BEG, Kanem, and parts of the Hadjer Lamis and Lac regions started in late February (one to two months earlier than usual). Pastoralists are traveling long distances, from 5-10 km, searching for pasture, negatively impacting animal body conditions and leading to lower milk production levels. Transhumant migration from the north to the south took place earlier than usual due to the early onset of the lean season. Animals are Source: FEWS NET concentrated in the Sudanian zone as they cannot move much further These maps show relevant acute food insecurity outcomes south beyond the Chadian border due to the closing of the border for emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily with Central African Republic (CAR), which has put significant pressure reflect chronic food insecurity. Learn more here. on scarce pasture, particularly in the Grande Sido Region. These weakened animals are less resistant to disease. Tree leaves, hay, feed cakes, and cotton seeds are being used as supplemental animal feed. To address this situation, the government has provided several tons of feed cakes, which are sold at subsidized prices to pastoralists in areas such as Maro (Grande Sido Region). CotonTchad is also selling cotton seeds to pastoralists in the same area. Markets and trade In the Sahelian zone, markets are well stocked with staple and manufactured foods. Staple foods (cereals, oils, legumes) come from stocks held by better-off farmers and the many traders in this area and elsewhere. Cereals are available in abundant supply, as in a normal year, due to above-average crop production during the 2014/2015 growing season. Cereal supplies have been boosted by off-season crops (berbéré, maize, wheat, and rice) and sales of cereals by the ONASA (the national food security agency). This has kept sorghum prices in line with the average and slightly below those of April 2014 in the Sahelian zone. Pearl millet prices are 16 percent lower than in April 2014 on the Abéché market and 8 percent lower than the five-year average. These lower prices are due to good cereal production levels in 2014 and low household demand. In Bol, Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 Chad Food Security Outlook Update April to September 2015 thanks to the harvest of dry cold season crops, markets are beginning to have more supplies. This has helped lower maize prices, which are currently 16 percent lower than in March but relatively stable (+4 percent) compared to April 2014. This is also due to the fact that farm workers who are generally paid in kind are quickly selling the maize they receive on the market in order to pay their debts. Maize prices in Bol are still higher than the five-year average (+35 percent). In the Sudanian zone, the harvest of berbéré crops and subsidized cereal sales by the ONASA are improving cereal availability on the markets. Thanks to average household stock levels, rural markets are continuing to supply urban markets with cereals and other foods. For example, in Moundou, sorghum supplies are higher than at the same time last year. Farmers are selling some of their sorghum stocks to prepare for the new growing season (to buy new farm tools and maintain/repair old ones). This above-average availability has helped stabilize sorghum prices on the Sarh market (FCFA 200/kg compared to FCFA 204/kg in March 2015). The quantities of sorghum available on the markets in Bodo and Tapol (Logone Oriental), for example, are in line with the same time last year. Maize prices remain stable thanks to significant imports from Cameroon this year. However, rice prices are up in Tandjilé due to production shortfalls in 2014. Sesame prices are down as Nigerian and Cameroonian traders are arriving later than in a normal year. Demand for maize is up in Moundou due to institutions purchasing nearly 2,000 bags in March. In the other regions of the south, cereal demand is average given good household stock levels. In the Sudanian zone, demand for groundnuts and cowpeas is higher than last year because production was lower than last year, as more land was planted in sesame instead of groundnuts. Prices are therefore higher than in April 2014. As for trade flows, cereal trade volumes are higher than in a normal year, and new trade flows have been observed from the Sudanian zone to the Sahelian zone and vice-versa. Maize and sorghum trade has been observed between the Sarh and Mao/Moussoro markets. Normal cereal trade movements have also been observed from the Salamat region to Guera, Mangalmé, Ouaddai, Kanem, and Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti/BET. The Bokoro and Gama markets receive pearl millet from the Barh-Signaka Region. The Batha region receives fruits and vegetables from Mongo and Bitkine. Am-Timan continues to supply sesame to neighboring Sudan and in return imports pasta and other foods. The closing of borders with neighboring countries (Nigeria and CAR) continues to have a negative impact on livestock exports. Insecurity in Nigeria has slowed and nearly stopped the flow of livestock trade. Livestock supplies on local markets therefore remain above-average, and livestock prices are lower than in both 2014 and a normal year. With pasture levels currently low and animals in poor physical condition, livestock prices are continuing to fall. On the livestock market in Mao (Kanem), sheep prices in April were 32 percent lower than in April 2014 and 8 percent lower than the five-year average. Population movements According to the latest numbers from OCHA, the number of refugees, returnees, and displaced persons in the Lac region is estimated at 43,808. This number is steadily rising as people continue to flee the violence associated with Boko Haram in Nigeria and around Lake Chad. A mass exodus of able-bodied workers has been reported from the Sahel, particularly Ouaddai and Sila, to the gold-producing area in the far north of the country.