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Investment Strategy Research Division Market Talk Investment Strategy Research Division Tuesday, June 5, 2018 Investment Strategy SET Index is undergoing correction but likely stand above 1,700 pts. Energy plays are SET Index 1,721.29 falling as global oil prices fall. Worldwide interest rate uptrend would widen spreads for Change (pts) 1.47 Thai banks. Many government projects are making progresses (ready for TOR now), good Market Cap (Million B) 53,420 for contractors and CBM plays. We recommend domestic plays. Top picks are SCC(FV@B600), BBL(FV@B220), and KBANK(FV@227). Net Buy and Sell by Investor Type (Million B) SET Index swings narrowly. Retail plays down but energy plays up Foreign -100.98 SET Index yesterday swung narrowly and closed at 1,721.29 pts, up 1.47 pts or 0.09% with Proprietary -1,802.34 trading value of B53.4bn. Almost every retail stock went down, e.g. CPALL, HMPRO, BJC, Institutional 2,454.80 and BEAUTY; P/E ratio is fairly high now. On the other hands, energy plays rallied, led by Retail -551.47 PTT (+0.49%) and PTTEP (+1.87%). ICT stocks (ADVANC and DTAC) went up. Airport play AOT also closed up despite negative sentiment from the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) down revision on 2018 profit target for the worldwide aviation industry, which also means more limited profit growth for AOT. SET correction is still likely today. Global oil prices are still falling. Interest rate uptrend in Asia is slowing down depreciation of Asian currencies. Advertising spending on TV would drop in the next one month at least, especially in the evening and at night. High inflation rates encourages global interest rate uptrend. Watch India’s meeting today Worldwide interest rate uptrend cycle becomes more and more certain, possibly led by the US (developed economy); some Asian countries already raised their policy rates: US – U.S. leading economic indicators have been strong. The latest unemployment rate made an 18-year low of 3.8%. Thus, Fed fund rate is anticipated to be raised by 0.25% at the next meeting on June 12-13 and then hiked one more time by 0.25% to 2.25% by end-2018. Malaysia – Earlier in 2018, Malaysia raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25% (first time in Porranee Thongyen License No: 004146 four years). Therdsak Thaveeteeratham Philippines – In mid-May 2018, the Philippines raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25% License No: 004132 (first time in four years). Pobchai Phatrawit License No: 052647 Indonesia – Indonesia hiked the interest rate two times in May by 0.5% in total to 4.5% (first Paradorn Tiaranapramote hikes in four years). License No: 075365 Takit Chardcherdsak India – According to 60 economists, there is 40% probability that India's interest rate would License No: 087636 be raised for the first time in four years by 0.25% at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting Yothin Pukongnin today. A rate hike is most likely at the August meeting (70% chance, according to 44 Quantitative Analyst Assistant economists). Notably, India's inflation rate jumped from 1.5% June 2017 to 4.6% in April 4.6%. Jerdjaras Kaewkua Analyst Assistant Thailand – Thailand's inflation rate was 1.49% in May (higher than) expected, likely to reach Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn 2% in 2H18. Thus, the MPC is likely to raise the interest rate by 0.25% within 2018. Economist Assistant English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-English research reports are a rough translation of public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities Company cannot be held information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, responsible for translation inaccuracies. completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities. ASIA PLUS SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015 SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015" Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division Advertising spending mainly around World Cup channels, depressing media plays 2018 FIFA World Cup is coming soon (June 14 - July 15, 2018), having more and more negative sentiment on media plays. Three channels will be able to broadcast World Cup matches, which are Amarin TV, TRUE4U, and Channel 5. Nine companies will help fund the broadcast rights and have rights to air advertisements on these three channels, as follows: 1) Six companies fund B200m: King Power, CP Group, Thai Beverage, BTS, GULF, and KBANK. 2) One company funds B100m: PTTGC. 3) Two companies fund B50m: BCP and CBG. On the other hand, other channels would lose advertisement airtime sales. Most audiences will watch World Cup matches live (19:00 - 01:00) instead of drama series or game shows that can be watched anytime through over-the-top channels, e.g. Youtube, Mello.me (Channel 3), and Bugaboo (Channel 7). Other companies that do not fund World Cup broadcast rights will not be able to air advertisement or even their logos during the World Cup broadcast, thus limiting their advertising and marketing chances. Therefore, agencies will slow down their advertisement broadcast and advertising spending would decrease for a whole week during World Cup. During 2014 Fifa World Cup, advertising spending increased 3.7%mom on average in June- July (from B9.711bn to B10.08bn), staying flat or rising slightly from June-July in other years without World Cup. We reiterate UNDERWEIGHT for the media sector and recommend selling WORK and BEC. Meanwhile, RS(FV@B36) would be limitedly affected since 80% of its income is from the beauty business; buy on weakness. Thinner net sell in Asia Foreign net selling has softened in Asia. Foreign funds possessed a net buying position in the region by US$219m (third day). Only Taiwan was with net buying of US$220m, while the rest faced slight net selling: South Korea at US$32m (after two days of net buying), Indonesia at US$11m, the Philippines at US$5m (14th day), and Thailand at US$3m or B101m. Local institutions still bought B2.45bn net. For the bond market, foreigners still bought B8.13bn (seventh day, totaling B32bn). Local institutions also bought B6.96bn net. Monthly Foreign Fund Flow in Asia Date Indonesia Philippines S. Korea Taiwan Thailand Total 2017 -2,960 1,095 8,268 5,758 -796 11,343 2018 (YTD) -2,934 -977 -2,315 -6,307 -4,142 -16,674 January 2018 132 45 1,963 2,856 -177 4,819 February 2018 -760 -296 -2,598 -3,480 -1,310 -8,444 March 2018 -1,085 -371 -449 -2,089 -352 -4,345 April 2018 -750 -171 -1,213 -2,873 -684 -5,691 May 2018 -460 -174 -262 -1,064 -1,620 -3,580 June 2018 -11 -10 244 343 1 567 Unit: Million US$ Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division Invest 40% in stocks: BBL, KBANK, SCC SET correction would continue due to falling global oil prices and uncertainty about external factors. Meanwhile, Thailand's economy has improved and the MPC has signaled tightening monetary policies, which would slow down foreign fund outflow. SET Index is getting closer to 1,700 pts (15.5x expected P/E ratio), having 6% upside from end-2018 target of 1,815 pts (16.5x P/E ratio). This is a good entry point. We recommend underperforming domestic plays: Banking – Interest income is projected to increase, compensating for falling fee income, since the economic growth has been better than expected and probably promotes 2018 loan growth. The inflation rate may reach 2% in September, so the interest rate is likely to be raised in 4Q18, benefiting banking plays. Construction material and contractor – These sectors would enjoy positive sentiment from progresses in bids of government projects, especially Dao Khanong – Rama 3 highway that would be ready for bid in June, followed by other projects in 2H18. These stocks will be in a spotlight again. We recommend domestic plays, e.g. contractor (CK, ITD), construction material (SCC), and banking (BBL, KBANK, and TCAP). For energy plays, we still like BANPU([email protected]) that has been laggard compared with other overvalued oil stocks PTT and PTTEP. SET vs Sector Return 2017 SET vs Sector Return 2018 YTD AGRI -16.1% MEDIA-15.9% INSUR -15.8% ETRON -15.8% ETRON -15.4% FOOD -13.5% STEELS -14.3% CONS -12.7% CONS -14.2% STEELS -12.4% HELTH -6.9% TOURISM -10.8% CONMAT -3.0% AGRI -10.5% FOOD -1.0% BANK -9.8% FIN 6.5% CONMAT -7.4% ICT 11.4% COMM -2.4% SET 13.6% PROP -1.9% BANK 15.3% FIN -1.9% MEDIA 15.8% SET -1.8% ENERG 19.3% ICT -1.5% COMM 21.1% INSUR -1.4% PROP 22.2% AUTO -0.5% AUTO 29.7% TRANS 1.6% TOURISM 33.2% PETRO 4.7% TRANS 37.2% ENERG 5.2% PETRO 42.4% HELTH 13.8% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% Source : ASPS Research Source : ASPS Research Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division Market Talk Top Picks Start Price Accumulated PER Dividend Stocks Fair Value Weight PBV 2018F Strategist Comment -5 Day Chart Date Avg.
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