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Broadcasters Friday, December 27, 2013

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Broadcasters Friday, December 27, 2013 INDUSTRY UPDATE Media - Broadcasters Friday, December 27, 2013 Day 1 of DTTV auction – High demand for SD Raweenuch Piyakriengkai December 26, 2013: first digital TV auction, for HD and SD variety channels (66-2) 949-1002 [email protected] SD – highest demand, with final license price 6x starting price Still cautious towards broadcasting sector on high costs, uncertain success DTTV auction – High demand for SD variety. On December 26, 2013, the National Broadcast and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) held the first digital TV (DTTV) channel auction for HD and SD variety channels. As expected, highest demand was for SD variety channels and this pushed the average final price up 6x above the starting price (average of ~Bt2.3bn vs. Bt380mn). The average final price of HD variety channels was double the starting price (~Bt3.4bn vs. Bt1.5bn). Total value for the first day of the DTTV auction was Bt39.7bn. BEC-Multimedia Co., Ltd (BEC subsidiary) offered the highest final price for the HD variety channel of Bt3.5bn. Thai Broadcasting Co., Ltd. (WORK subsidiary) offered the highest final price for the SD variety channel of Bt2.4bn. Winner names and their final bids are in Figure 2. Winners: BEC and GRAMMY both get HD and SD. BEC and GRAMMY, through subsidiaries, each won both HD and SD variety channels. Day #2 today: auction of news and children’s channels. Today (December 27) the DTTV auction for news and children channel categories will be held. High demand is expected for children’s channels, with more bidders than there are licenses on offer. Official announcement in 15 days. The NBTC will officially announce the winners within 15 days after completion of the auction. Winners must comply with the conditions set out by the NBTC, including payment of the first installment, provide a guarantee for the second payment and contract for network use with DTTV network providers within 30 days after the announcement of official winners. Payment method. The installment payment is separated into two parts: 1) payment of the starting price, made in four payments - 50% paid in the first year, 30% in the second year and 10% in each of the third and fourth years and 2) payment of the amount bid over the starting price, which will be paid in six installments of 10% in each of the first and second years and 20% in each of the third to sixth years. Still cautious on broadcasters. We continue to be cautious towards broadcasters, and see no near-term positive catalysts. The economy is faltering, particularly now, as the political morass is expanding, and together these factors will lessen consumer spending, leading to ad budget cuts. Players also face operating losses initially, widely expected to last two to five years after DTTV operations start. Compared to the incumbent free TV operators, smaller players such as satellite TV operators are less well grounded financially, forcing them to raise debt. Newcomers have little experience and this puts them at greater risk. We note that our earnings forecasts for BEC and MCOT do not factor in the impact of DTTV, but we see downside from the expected initial losses from DTTV operations. Valuation Summary Rating Price Target ETR P/E (x) EPS growth (%) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Div. Yield (%) (Bt/Sh) (Bt/Sh) (%) 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F 12A 13F 14F BEC Sell 51.00 66.00 35.0 21.4 18.6 17.0 35.2 14.9 9.5 12.28 10.97 10.07 60.7 62.3 61.9 4.4 5.1 5.5 GRAMMY* Not Rated 19.00 Not Rated n.a. n.m. n.m. n.m. (155.9) (137.9) (7.8) 3.59 3.45 4.31 (11.7) (31.2) (34.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 MCOT Sell 28.75 33.00 22.2 11.2 12.5 12.1 29.7 (10.5) 3.3 2.46 2.41 2.37 22.4 19.4 19.7 8.0 7.2 7.4 RS* Not Rated 7.50 Not Rated n.a. 18.8 17.7 13.3 34.0 31.5 33.2 4.95 4.74 4.17 23.3 30.0 32.3 3.5 4.0 5.1 WORK* Not Rated 28.00 Not Rated n.a. 17.7 19.0 14.6 20.6 (6.6) 29.9 5.30 4.85 4.51 32.0 28.0 29.3 5.0 3.9 4.7 Average 19.2 20.7 17.4 1.9 (12.5) 14.4 4.65 4.27 4.12 22.2 18.8 18.6 3.2 3.2 3.6 Source: SCBS Investment Research *Bloomberg consensus Tel. (662) 949-1000 The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein reflect Fax: (662) 949-1030 our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only. It is not to be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any www.scbs.com securities. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. We or our associates may have an interest in the companies mentioned therein. Media Friday, December 27, 2013 Figure 1: Detail of commercial DTTV channels No. of DTTV Reserve price/starting price Auction date Commercial DTTV channel category channel licenses No. of bidders (Bt mn/license) Children 3 6 140 December 27, 2013 News 7 10 220 December 27, 2013 Standard-definition (SD) variety 7 Auction completed 380 December 26, 2013 High-definition (HD) variety 7 Auction completed 1,510 December 26, 2013 Total 24 Source: NBTC and SCBS Investment Research Figure 2: HD and SD variety channel winners Categories Detail Final price (Bt mn) HD variety channel Winners 1 BEC-Multimedia Co., Ltd. BEC World: BEC 3,530 2 Bangkok Media and Broadcasting Co., Ltd. Owned by Mr. Prasert Prasarttong-Osoth 3,460 3 BBTV Satelvision Co., Ltd Channel 7 3,370 4 Triple V Broadcast Co., Ltd. Thai Rath newspaper 3,360 5 MCOT Plc. MCOT 3,340 6 Amarin Television Co., Ltd. Amarin Group 3,320 7 GMM D Digital TV Co., Ltd GRAMMY 3,320 Losers Thai Broadcasting Co., Ltd. Workpoint: WORK PM Group Co., Ltd. Mahagitsiri Family SD variety channel Winners 1 Thai Broadcasting Co., Ltd. Workpoint: WORK 2,355 2 True DTT Co. Ltd. TrueVisions 2,315 3 GMM SD Digital TV Co., Ltd GRAMMY 2,290 4 BEC-Multimedia Co., Ltd. BEC World: BEC 2,275 5 RS Television Co., Ltd. RS 2,265 6 Mono Broadcast Co., Ltd Mono Technology: MONO 2,250 7 Bangkok Business Broadcasting Co. Ltd. Nation Multimedia Group: NMG 2,200 Losers BBTV Satelvision Co., Ltd Channel 7 Touch TV Co., Ltd. Intouch: INTUCH Voice TV Co., Ltd. Satellite TV operators Thai TV Co., Ltd. The publisher of TV Pool magazine MCOT Plc. MCOT Bangkok Media and Broadcasting Co., Ltd. Owned by Mr. Prasert Prasarttong-Osoth Amarin Television Co., Ltd. Amarin Group Triple V Broadcast Co., Ltd. Thai Rath newspaper 411 Entertainment Co., Ltd. Mahagitsiri Family Source: NBTC and SCBS Investment Research Figure 3: News and children channel bidders Bidder names Details News channel 1 Post TV Co., Ltd Post Publishing: POST 2 Voice TV Co., Ltd. Satellite TV operators 3 Springnews Television Co., Ltd. Satellite TV operators 4 Thai TV Co., Ltd. The publisher of TV Pool magazine 5 NBC Next Vision Co., Ltd. Nation Multimedia Group: NMG 6 Mono Generation Co., Ltd. Mono Technology: MONO 7 I-Sport Media Co., Ltd. Joint venture between Samart Corporation and Siam Sport Syndicate 8 3A Marketing Co., Ltd. Channel 5's content providers 9 DN Broadcast Co., Ltd. The publishing house of the Thai-language Daily News paper 10 Thai News Network Co. Ltd TrueVisions Children channel 1 Rose Media and Entertainment Co., Ltd Satellite TV operators 2 BEC-Multimedia Co., Ltd. BEC World: BEC 3 Thai TV Co., Ltd. The publisher of TV Pool magazine 4 MCOT Plc. MCOT 5 Nation Kids Co., Ltd. Nation Multimedia Group: NMG 6 True DTT Co. Ltd. TrueVisions Source: NBTC and SCBS Investment Research Figure 4: Payment method Payment : % of installment Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 1) Starting price 50% 30% 10% 10% 2) Amount over the starting price 10% 10% 20% 20% 20% 20% Source: NBTC and SCBS Investment Research 2 Media Friday, December 27, 2013 Disclaimer SCB SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED (“SCBS”) ACTS AS MARKET MAKER AND ISSUER OF DERIVATIVE WARRANTS on the ordinary shares of ADVANC, BANPU, BAY, BBL, BCP, BEC, BGH, BJC, BTS, CENTEL, CK, DTAC, GLOBAL, HMPRO, INTUCH, IVL, JAS, KBANK, KKP, KTB, PS, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, SCC, TCAP, THAI, TISCO, TMB, TOP, TRUE. Before making an investment decision over a derivative warrant, an investor should carefully read the prospectus for the details of the said derivative warrants. Any opinion, news, research, analyse, price, statement, forecast, projection and/or other information contained in this document (the “Information”) is provided as general purpose information only, and shall not be construed as a recommendation to any person of an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities. SCBS and/or its directors, officers, employees, and agents shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential loss or damage, resulting from the use of, or reliance on, the Information, including without limitation, damages for loss of profits.
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